Climate Variability Change Research Articles

Modeling Rainwater Harvesting and Storage Dynamics of Rural Impoundments in Dry Chaco Rangelands

Transporting water to supply livestock is one of the great challenges of the drylands. Ranchers usually make impoundments, filled by runoff, to access freshwater for cattle supply in flat rangelands. The aim of this study was to understand rainfall-runoff generation and water storage temporal dynamics of impoundments in the Dry Chaco rangelands (Argentina). Thus, we instrumented six impoundments over three consecutive years and analyzed water storage data by developing a probabilistic model. For all impoundments, the rainfall event size thresholds to generate runoff presented values between 15 and 33 mm. Once they reached this threshold, the water gain response slopes presented values between 19 and 99 m3 mm−1. Loss patterns of water storage were described by exponential or linear functions. The predicted water storage dynamics presented high accuracy with the observed time series for all impoundments (RMSD between 380 and 1320 m3). The model only needs daily rainfall and air temperature to be run, making it easy to be used by scientists, ranchers, or local decision makers. It may be used to explore the hydrological functioning of small and seasonal water bodies of different sites of the world exposed to drought episodes caused by high climate variability and/or climate change.

IMPACTS OF LAND-USE, LAND-COVER, AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON STREAMFLOW IN THE UPPER LUFIRA CATCHMENT, D.R. CONGO

Hydrological processes are often influenced by the changes in land use, land cover, and climatic variables that negatively or positively affect all the hydrological components. For the Upper Lufira catchment, the factors affecting runoff and its relationship with land use/cover are less known. Thus, this study aims to assess the impacts of climate change and LULC change on streamflow of the Upper Lufira catchment using the powerful Soil and Water Assessment Tool. This study required three categories of data: a set of historically available climate data from 1990 to 2013, spatial data (DEM, two land use/cover maps respectively for 2000 and 2010, and a soil map), and hydrometric data. The results showed that streamflow was affected by the changes in LULC and Climate between 1998 and 2013 mainly by reducing it. The changes were also observed for other hydrological components. Lateral flow, base flow, evapotranspiration, and Percolation increased while surface runoff, soil water content, and water yield decreased. In conclusion, anthropogenic activities do indeed have a significant impact on streamflow as well as on hydrological components in the Upper Lufira catchment. Thus, we have recommended careful control of all human activities in the catchment, mainly by regulating deforestation activities and improving reforestation activities in the context of catchment sustainable management.

Development of a solar powered smart irrigation control system Kit

The adverse effects of climate change and climate variability are hindering agricultural productivity in developing countries. When combined with the laborious nature of irrigated agriculture, many smallholder farmers in these countries abandon irrigation systems or occasionally fail to implement an irrigation event due to other commitments. Therefore, this necessitates smart technology advances in agriculture to deal with irrigated agriculture problems of energy use efficiency, cost, water conservation, and drudgery. This study aimed at developing a mobile solar-powered control system for real-time scheduling using feedback from soil moisture sensors. A smart solar-powered irrigation control system (Smart Irri-Kit) was developed to schedule and automate water delivery to crops based on soil moisture levels. Itincorporates an automated tank water level control system that triggers pump activation during irrigation. The Kit was designed, fabricated, programmed, and field tested at Makerere University Agricultural Research Station Kabanyolo, using sandy clay loam soil. In this study, efficient irrigation scheduling and relay of soil moisture updates to the farmers were achieved. The Smart Irri-Kit soil moisture sensors were able to detect soil moisture with no significant difference from the gravimetric method. The development of the solar-powered Smart Irri-Kit presents a sustainable and automated solution for optimizing irrigation practices, contributing to water conservation and improved crop yield. The integration of solar power enhances its autonomy and reduces operational costs. Future research directions include the incorporation of weather parameters and advanced communication capabilities for remote monitoring and control. Overall, the Smart Irri-Kit holds great potential in promoting efficient and sustainable irrigation practices in agriculture

Assessment of Changes in Climatic Variables in Hadeja-Nguru Wetlands

The study assessed the changes in climatic variables in Hadeja Nguru wetland. Parameters evaluated includes; variations in climatic variables over a 40-year window (1979-2019) Data on climatic variables on daily basis were obtained for a period 40years and Satellite imageries of the study area were officially downloaded from the United State Geological Survey website. Paired sample T-test and chi-square test of association were used in assessing the variation in climatic factors. Result showed that indicated sparse distribution as a major effect of climate change. Decreased in crops production, land shade, destruction of harvested crops, increase in insect population and shortened seed germination period were thought to be the consequences of reduction in rainfall, excessive rainfall, irregular rainfall pattern and increase in temperatures, Food scarcity, reduction in income due to depletion of crops were also pinpointed as impacts of climate change.. Maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity and solar intensity between 1979 and 2019 were 40.07 and 36.46, 1180.36mm and 58.18mm, 2.97m/s and 2.29m/s, 0.33g/kg and 0.22g/kg and 23.68w/m2 and 20.70w/m2 respectively. There was also a significant Chi-square value (33.481a) between respondents’ effect of climate change and increase in farm sizes. The paper concluded that there were fluctuations in climatic variables. There is the need to put in place right policies to protect and preserve wetlands to enhance their sustainability and resilience to climatic changes and variability.

Carbon sink and source function of Eastern Himalayan forests: implications of change in climate and biotic variables

Carbon sink and source function of Eastern Himalayan forests: implications of change in climate and biotic variables

Contributions of Climate Change and ENSO Variability to Future Precipitation Extremes Over California

AbstractThe El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation through modulations of regional heat and moisture fluxes. California experiences particularly strong ENSO influences and models project different to its extreme precipitation. It remains unclear how diverse projections of future precipitation extremes relate to inter‐model differences for those changing signals. Here, we use “large ensemble” simulations with multiple climate models along with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to investigate the range of precipitation extreme changes over California and the influences from ENSO‐related teleconnections. We found that precipitation amount increases are much larger during El Niño relative to La Niña years, mainly caused by the differences in frequency of extreme events during different phases. The ENSO‐driven effect is even larger than the overall climate change signal for the most extreme events, implying uncertainties from inter‐model differences in ENSO‐related SST variability for extreme precipitation changes.

Impact of Climate Change on Fruit Production: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in Northeast Himalayan Region

Numerous horticulture crops, both well-known and less well-known underutilized fruit crops native to this region, are grown in abundance in the north-eastern Himalayan region. If grown to their full capacity, these crops will produce significant revenue and contribute to the local economy. There is however, a decrease in their availability even before being fully exploited due to losses resulting from many factors including climate change and related variability. The primary consequence of climate change, among many others, is the changes in the agro-ecological region that are observable in some places where there is the replacement of native fruits, many of which originated at higher elevations, with low chilling-required fruits. In the Ukhrul district of Manipur (Northeast India), the abundance of many local temperate crops of the Prunus species such as peaches, plums, cherries, pears, bird cherry (Prunus nepalensis) and others like walnut, wild apple (Docynia indica), Pyrus pashia, Myrica spp., Rhus semialatus, Rubus spp., Eleagnus spp., Elaeocarpus floribundus, Spondias axillaris, etc. are reduced and being replaced by low chilling requiring crops like kiwi, avocado, low chilling apples (Anna, Golden Dorsett, HRMN 99) and area under these crops particularly kiwi is increasing. In household gardens at higher altitudes, tropical fruits like mango, banana and guava are now thriving; in the past, the harsh winter frosts made it impossible even for the seedlings to survive. Despite employing rootstocks that are more resistant to higher temperature, kiwi is replacing the apple-growing regions in the foothills of Bomdila and Dirang in Arunachal Pradesh, since the requisite quality is not achieved.

Frontier model of the environmental inefficiency effects on livestock bioeconomy

Background: This work was focused on measuring environmental inefficiency in Mexican dairy farms, considering climate change variables related to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) and planetary geomagnetic activity. Methods: The applied methodology measures the eco-efficiency of Mexican dairy farms using the empirical application of a stochastic frontier model of the bioeconomy. The productive sector of the bioeconomy studied was the eco-intensification of the livestock production system (dairies). The environmental inefficiency effect was assumed to be a distribution-independent truncation of a normal distribution with constant variance, while the mean was a linear environmental function of the observable variable. Results: The results showed that the coefficients of the frontier model were highly significant, highlighting the investment in livestock (50%). The inefficiency model had an impact on climate variation with greenhouse gas emissions CH4 (1.96%). The results of the environmental technical efficiency in geometric average were 81.28%. The producers that reached the border with a technical efficiency equal to 1 are the references for the rest, marking the relative technical efficiency. Conclusions: It was concluded that the coefficients in the model were very significant, showing the level of investment in livestock (50%). The low-performance model estimates the impact of climate change on GHG emissions CH4 (1.96%) explaining the trend of increasing GHG emissions, keeping in view that the management of food and cattle during the study period were affected by summer feeding, which allowed considering the activity of GHG emissions. According to the results, the geometric mean environmental performance of engineering is 81.28%.

Detection and Attribution of Greening and Land Degradation of Dryland Areas in China and America

Global dryland areas are vulnerable to climate change and anthropogenic activities, making it essential to understand the primary drivers and quantify their effects on vegetation growth. In this study, we used the Time Series Segmented Residual Trends (TSS-RESTREND) method to attribute changes in vegetation to CO2, land use, climate change, and climate variability in Chinese and American dryland areas. Our analysis showed that both Chinese and American drylands have undergone a greening trend over the past four decades, with Chinese greening likely linked to climatic warming and humidification of Northwest China. Climate change was the dominant factor driving vegetation change in China, accounting for 48.3%, while CO2 fertilization was the dominant factor in American drylands, accounting for 47.9%. However, land use was the primary factor resulting in desertification in both regions. Regional analysis revealed the importance of understanding the drivers of vegetation change and land degradation in Chinese and American drylands to prevent desertification. These findings highlight the need for sustainable management practices that consider the complex interplay of climate change, land use, and vegetation growth in dryland areas.

Climate Change Implication on Palestine: A Case Study Jenin Governorate

Climate change negatively affects sustainable development in Palestine, especially Jenin Gover-norate, which is the food basket for Palestine. This study identified climate change variables in Jenin Governorate for more than 100 years, especially temperatures and precipitation, derived from historical data to study the manifestations of climate change and its impact on water re-sources and the agricultural sector. The impact of climate change on groundwater wells is an un-derstatement. The majority of Jenin’s water wells, which number about 66 (including 22 agricul-tural wells), are located in the northeastern basin. By analyzing the data for the average annual total recharge of this basin, it was evident that the recharge had decreased from about 151 million cubic meters/year from 1976-1992 to about 134 million cubic meters/year during 1993-2009. (about 11.3%). This is because of the general solid decrease in rainfall in the Jenin area due to the effects of climate change. The decrease in recharge, coupled with increased groundwater pump-ing, has drained the reservoir stock and deteriorated the groundwater quality. The other source of water in Jenin Governorate is springs. Jenin Governorate has 42 streams largely used for small-scale agricultural and household needs. The research showed that the discharge of the springs increases from 2014 to 2020 (average discharge 0.48 MCM/yr.) compared to the period 2001 to 2011 (average discharge 0.48 MCM/yr.). years) due to the increase in the amounts of discharge from the springs and the start of relying on them more, as Jenin governorate is facing water scarcity recently. In the future, climate change will considerably impact water resources, altering surface and underground water supplies for residential and commercial purposes, irriga-tion, in-stream ecosystems, and aquatic leisure.

Human Influence On Global Climate: Legal Protection For Sustenance Of Life On Earth

Changes in solar irradiance may have affected global climate, the importance of the climate change issue stems from the impact of changes in climate on human and natural systems. The two most well-known consequences of climate change are an increase in global-mean temperature and a rise in sea level. The primary components of sea-level rise are thermal expansion and the melting of small glaciers. However, there are other changes in climate could be as important, or even so, than changes in the mean climate state. These include changes in precipitation and climate variability, particularly changes in the intensity and/or severity of extreme events such as droughts, floods, or tropical storms.
 Physics deals with the structure of matter and how the fundamental constituents of the universe interact. The impact of humans on the environment revolves around the need of physical science to understand how human beings change a natural system, an understanding of global warming and the associated climate change. Hence, physicists will approach numerous troubles from more than one direction. Physicists had to constantly keep attentive to changes, to visualize one factor going on in nature, to discover new phenomena and to document it in order that they will describe it later. Thus studying physics strengthens quantitative reasoning and problem solving skills. The environment is the natural world but with toxic chemicals, spacecraft, and nuclear bombs, humans seem to be moving further and further away from what could be called 'natural' every day. As physics strengthens quantitative reasoning and problem-solving skills, it should be dealt transdisciplinary with Law will surely helps in reducing human influence on global climate and render legal protection for sustenance of life on earth. Hence the paper concentrates on the importance of application of physical principles to environmental problems and the proactive role played by judiciary in different countries in protecting life on earth by adopting policies relating to climate change, enhancing ethical principles by setting regulations and standards for operating industries.

Spatiotemporal Variations in Fractional Vegetation Cover and Their Responses to Climatic Changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The alpine vegetation of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is extremely vulnerable and sensitive to climatic fluctuations, making it an ideal area to study the potential impacts of climate on vegetation dynamics. Fractional vegetation cover (FVC) is regarded as one of the key indicators in monitoring semiarid and arid ecosystems due to its sensitive responses to vegetation behavior under climatic changes. Although many studies have analyzed the responses of vegetation on the QTP to climatic change, limited information is available on the influence of climatic variables on FVC changes in this area. In this study, we used satellite images and meteorological data to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of FVC during the growing season (FVCGS) during 1998–2018 and evaluated the responses to changes in climatic variables. Results showed that FVCGS displayed an overall fluctuating rise of 0.01/10 a (p < 0.01) over the study period. The FVCGS variation was spatially heterogeneous, with a general trend of greening in the northern and browning in the southern QTP. Obvious correlations were observed between the average FVC, average temperature, and total precipitation of the growing season, with precipitation being the primary controlling factor for vegetation growth. Some regions in the northwestern and northeastern QTP showed greening trends due to the positive influence of precipitation. Some areas in the southwestern QTP experienced browning trends due to water shortages caused, probably, by the weakening of the Indian monsoon. Browning in the southeastern parts was likely caused by drought and permafrost degradation resulting from high temperature. The inconsistent trend of vegetation change on the QTP is relatively high considering the continuous warming and changing atmospheric circulation patterns. FVC in most regions of the QTP has 0–1 month temporal responses to precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the one-month lagged effects of temperature and precipitation had a greater influence on steppe and desert vegetation than on other vegetation types. This research provides new perspectives for understanding the QTP vegetation response to climatic changes and a basis for making reasonable vegetation conservation and management policies.

Flood hazard attribution and uncertainty analysis with climate changes in data scarce watersheds of southeastern Ethiopia

Abstract The interaction of the atmosphere and the land surface is vital in hydrological processes. In this paper, climate change impacts on streamflow are explored using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) in one of the tropical watersheds, Wabi Shebele River Basin of Ethiopia. Regional climate model (RCM) from CORDEX-Africa region is used to analyze the basin's hydrological responses to climate forcing in the projected period. The result indicates that the watershed is likely to experience an increase in flood hazard with an increase in precipitation in the future as temperatures increase less than 2 °C. Flood hazard indices showed a larger value downstream of the river station (i.e., Gode) and a smaller value at the upper and middle stations with no change in climate variables (i.e., the baseline scenario, T + 0 °C, P + 0%). Based on separation method analysis, climate change has a greater impact on the streamflow and flood hazards in the region during the last four decades. Model uncertainty analysis reveals that simulated seasonal streamflow using RCMs has similar oscillation patterns to streamflow using observed climate data within uncertainty bands (UBs) in the study area with NSE and R2 values greater than 0.75 and 0.92, respectively.

Not the expected poleward migration: Impact of climate change scenarios on the distribution of two endemic evergreen broad-leaved Quercus species in China

One of the key strategies for species to respond to climate change is range shift. It is commonly believed that species will migrate towards the poles and higher elevations due to climate change. However, some species may also shift in opposite directions (i.e., equatorward) to adapt to changes in other climatic variables beyond climatic isotherms. In this study, we focused on two evergreen broad-leaved Quercus species endemic to China and used ensemble species distribution models to project their potential distribution shifts and extinction risk under two shared socioeconomic pathways of six general circulation models for the years 2050 and 2070. We also investigated the relative importance of each climatic variable in explaining range shifts of these two species. Our findings indicate a sharp reduction in the habitat suitability for both species. Q. baronii and Q. dolicholepis are projected to experience severe range contractions, losing over 30 % and 100 % of their suitable habitats under SSP585 in the 2070s, respectively. Under the assumption of universal migration in future climate scenarios, Q. baronii is expected to move towards the northwest (~105 km), southwest (~73 km), and high elevation (180–270 m). The range shifts of both species are driven by temperature and precipitation variables, not only annual mean temperature. Specifically, precipitation seasonality and temperature annual range were the most crucial environmental variables, causing the contraction and expansion of Q. baronii and contraction of Q. dolicholepis, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of considering additional climatic variables beyond the annual mean temperature to explain species range shifts in multiple directions.

Role in Supporting the Monitoring of Water Targets and Sanitation: A Societal Process of Development

Water is a critical need for all aspects of life on Earth, and underpins the sustainability of national economy, society and the environment. Factors, such as population growth, climate change and rainfall variability, land use changes, water pollution, institutional arrangements, and water demand for food production, affect future water availability and security. Sustainable water is when a nation can be water self-sufficient: ensuring there is enough water to meet multiple needs, from agriculture to municipal and industrial. Ensure that all employees and their families have ample access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation, and raise awareness about hygiene practices. Invest in clean-ups and restoration of water ecosystems to ensure sustainable water withdrawals. Sustainable management of water resources and access to safe water and sanitation are essential for unlocking economic growth and productivity, and provide significant leverage for existing investments in health and education. Scientific research and evidence have an important role to play in facilitating the implementation of availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all through assessments and policy engagement from global to local scales. This paper addresses some of these challenges related to implementation and monitoring of these targets from a water perspective, based on the key findings: indicators, inter-linkages, and implementation. It also recognizes that implementing these goals is a societal process of development, and there is a need to link how Sustainable Development Goals relate to public benefits and to communicate this to the broader public. Key words: Water, sustainability, sanitation, societal process, environment

Impact of Climate Variables Change on the Yield of Wheat and Rice Crops in Iran (Application of Stochastic Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation).

This study aims to predict the yield of two strategic crops in Iran; wheat and rice, under climate scenarios that indicate probable changes in climate variables. It implemented by a stochastic model based on the Monte Carlo method. This model were estimated based on historical data from 1988 to 2019 for precipitation and temperature provided possible changes in the pattern of and their probability of occurrence. The results show that rain-fed wheat, irrigated wheat and rice yields decrease by 42%, 29% and 21% respectively in the average scenario. Therefore, policy makers should try to make the right decisions to increase the production of the country's strategic crops. R&D management to introduce drought-tolerant varieties, use of modern irrigation systems and use of low-volume irrigation methods are some of the proposed solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Non-stationary evaluation of runoff peaks in response to climate variability and land use change in Ferson Creek, Illinois, USA.

In this paper, we examine how surface runoff affects public safety and urban infrastructure worldwide and how human activity has significantly altered the frequency and magnitude of these events. We investigate this issue in Ferson Creek, IL, USA. Our study focuses on three specific areas of impact: (1) the primary reasons for a considerable increase in average runoff peaks, using annual maximum runoff discharge and annual maximum precipitation and temperature to evaluate the role of climate variability; (2) the effect of land use change on runoff peaks by coupling dominant land use categories with annual maximum runoff discharge; and (3) the use of return level plots as a reference to explore the watershed's sensitivity to land use change. Our findings indicate that land use change has a greater effect on runoff peak values than climate variability in our region of interest. The agricultural areas of Ferson Creek have been most affected by the rapid transformation of about 20% of their land into developed areas. Although agricultural areas can sometimes intensify runoff peaks, their reduction has led to excessive runoff discharges in Ferson Creek, as they have higher relative infiltration capacity than developed areas. We conclude that each watershed has its own fingerprint in terms of the connection between its land use types and hydrological patterns and that the region is most sensitive to the percentage of forests. These results are essential for improving infrastructure design and risk estimation methods in the region of interest.

Impacts of climate change on the yields of leguminous crops in the Guinea Savanna agroecological zone of Ghana

The impacts of climate change on crop yields are receiving renewed interest, with focus on cereals and staple crops at the regional and national scales. Yet, the impacts of climate variability on the yields of leguminous crops in the local context has not been explored. Thus, an in-depth understanding of climate change variability in the local context may support the design of locally relevant adaptation responses to current and future climate risks. This study examined the impacts of climate variables (annual rainfall, annual average temperature, rainfall indices (rainfall onset, rainfall cessation, and the length of rainy days), and the number of dry days) on the yields of leguminous crops (groundnuts, cowpeas, and soybeans) in the Guinea Savanna agroecological zone of Ghana during the period of 1989–2020. The data were analysed using Mann-Kendall's trend, Sen's slope test, correlation analysis, and Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA). The findings revealed that annual rainfall, annual average temperature, rainfall onset, rainfall cessation, and the length of rainy days, and the number of dry days all showed varied impacts on the yields of groundnuts, cowpeas, and soybeans. The trend analysis detected a marginal decrease in the amount of rainfall, rainfall onset, and the number of dry days from 1989 to 2020 (P ​> ​0.050). Annual average temperature and the length of rainy days substantially varied (P ​< ​0.050) from 1989 to 2020, showing an increasing trend. The findings also showed a marked upward trend for the yields of groundnuts, cowpeas, and soybeans during 2005–2020. The climate variables analysed above increased the yields of groundnuts, cowpeas, and soybeans by 49.0%, 55.0%, and 69.0%, respectively. The yields of groundnuts, cowpeas, and soybeans have been fluctuating with the variability of 30.0%, 28.0%, and 27.0% from 2005 to 2020, respectively. The three leguminous crops under study demonstrated unpredictable yields due to the variations of annual rainfall, annual average temperature, rainfall onset, rainfall cessation, the length of rainy days, and the number of dry days, which stressed the need for agricultural diversification, changing planting dates, using improved seed variety, and irrigation to respond to climate change. The results of this study implied that climate change considerably impacts crop production in the Guinea Savanna agroecological zone of Ghana, emphasizing the urgency of locally based and farmer-induced adaptation measures for food security and resilient agricultural systems.

Farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and adaptation strategies in the rural areas of Dire Dawa administration, eastern Ethiopia

Climate variability has significant impact on agricultural production especially in low-income countries where agriculture largely relies on rainfall, but only a few studies explored this issue at local scale. Therefore, this study was conducted to characterize local climate and assess farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate variability in the rural areas of Dire Dawa administration. Historical rainfall and temperature data (1987–2017) were obtained from National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while data of farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies were collected from a total of 120 household heads through survey questionnaire, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The results revealed that the area received an average annual rainfall of 568.3 mm with main rainy season (kiremt) contributing 70.7% to annual rainfall. The earliest and latest onset dates of kiremt season were 15th of April and 2nd of August, respectively. The amount of annual and kiremt rainfall totals showed low and medium variability with a coefficient variability (CV) of 18.3% and 27.7%, respectively, whereas short rainy season (belg) rainfall had high variability with a CV of 43.9%. Climate variability perception analysis showed that an overwhelming majority of the respondents (90%) perceived a decrease in the annual rainfall and 91.7% detected an increase in annual average temperature in the study area. Farmers of the study area were well aware of the changes in rainfall and temperature and thus employed a range of adaptation practices. Soil and water conservation practices (100%), off-farm income diversification (63%), planting drought-tolerant varieties (50%) and changing of planting date (45%) were the main adaptation strategies employed in the study area to avert the negative effects of climate variability. The findings imply that the area has been experiencing palpable changes in climate variables during the study period against which farmers exercised multiple adaptation strategies. However, farmers in the area are still face hardship as a result of climate variability which necessitates improving farmers’ resilience through innovative mechanisms and better extension services.

Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.