Climate Transition Research Articles

Climate justice or inequality lock-in? Analysis of U.S. incarceration in a changing climate

ABSTRACT The concept of carbon lock-in has been applied to the infrastructure, institutions, and discourses that lock society into carbon technologies, and simultaneously lock out lower-carbon alternatives. However, climate transitions have implications that extend beyond carbon and related environmental considerations. Systems of social inequality are also inextricably linked to and impacted by climate change governance and related actions. This article develops a framework to analyze inequality lock-in and disruption as part of climate transitions in particular sectors or industries. We conceptualize four distinct forms of climate transitions in relation to inequality: decarbonization lock-in, adaptation lock-in, decarbonization disruption, and adaptation disruption. Moreover, the framework conceptualizes the material mechanisms through which inequality is locked-in, or alternatively, disrupted by climate actions. Applying this framework to analyze the case of incarceration in the United States suggests that decarbonization and climate adaptation policies and practices are currently weighted toward further locking-in inequality in carceral systems.

How (Not) to Measure Companies' Climate Transition Risk: A Framework and Categorized Literature Review

ABSTRACTThe climate transition is increasingly acknowledged as a major risk driver for companies, financial institutions, and investors. At the same time, there is widespread confusion about how to best measure climate transition risk, since different measurements lead to significantly different risk profiles. I show empirically that, to date, the two most common proxies for climate transition risk are CO2 and E(SG) score data. I further contribute to the transition risk literature by proposing a comprehensive 10‐category framework, specifically tailored toward assessing climate transition risk proxies. I apply the framework by executing the first category‐led literature review on the quality of both CO2 data and E‐scores as proxies for climate transition risk. I find that both data types are dynamic and strong in terms of granularity as well as usability; but have shortcomings across a multitude of categories: bias, availability, comparability, the backward‐looking nature of the metrics, and transition risk specificity being the most severe issues. I urge scholars to reflect on these shortcomings as they could significantly distort results. As a minimum, scholars should test for the robustness of their results when relying solely on ESG or CO2 data to classify transition risk. Therefore, I propose both within and between transition risk metric robustness tests, which are not yet commonly used in the literature. I close by introducing and discussing alternative proxies for climate transition risk, such as EU taxonomy alignment, sector/technology classifications, or innovative combinations of risk metrics. I argue that scholars should consider these alternatives since they are potentially less biased, more specific to transition risk, comparable, and available. I thereby contribute to a better measurement of companies' transition risk, which is a key prerequisite for accurately managing and correctly pricing climate transition risk.

Integrating Climate Transition Risks into Moroccan Equity Portfolios: a Path Towards SDGs

Integrating Climate Transition Risks into Moroccan Equity Portfolios: a Path Towards SDGs

A Spatial Analysis of the Spillover Effects of Geopolitical and Climate Transition Risks on Sovereign Risk

A Spatial Analysis of the Spillover Effects of Geopolitical and Climate Transition Risks on Sovereign Risk

Impacts of Climate Change Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Carbon Prices: Configuration Analysis from a Complex System Perspective

Despite a vast amount of research examining the antecedent variables of carbon prices, the impact of climate change risk on carbon prices has been rarely explored. This study adopted a complex system perspective and applied NCA and fsQCA models to analyze regional climate physical risk (CPR) and climate transition risk (CTR) from a complex system perspective. The results suggested that the primary factors affecting the Hubei carbon price included coal prices, market regulation, and national carbon market prices, and carbon prices could be higher in response to higher levels of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) combined with other factors. By comparing the changes of independent variables before and after the opening of the national carbon market, it was found that lower CPR and CTR were conducive to higher carbon prices; the former has received early attention but the latter has been neglected. The findings from this study provided theoretical and practical insight to inform government regulation of carbon prices and decision-making for carbon market stakeholders. The government should pay attention to the impacts of climate change risks and EPU on carbon prices because these factors could significantly undermine the incentive and economic effectiveness of the carbon market.

In search of non-stationary dependence between estuarine river discharge and storm surge based on large-scale climate teleconnections

Compound floods may happen in low-lying estuarine environments when sea level above normal tide co-occurs with high river flow. Thus, comprehensive flood risk assessments for estuaries should not only account for the individual hazard arising from each environmental variable in isolation, but also for the case of bivariate hazard. Characterization of the dependence structure of the two flood drivers becomes then crucial, especially under climatic variability and/or change that may affect their relationship. In this article, we demonstrate our search for evidence of non-stationarity in the dependence between river discharge and storm surge along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States, driven by large-scale climate variability, particularly El-Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Leveraging prolonged overlapping observational records and copula theory, we recover parameters of both stationary and dynamic copulas using state-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Physics-informed copulas are developed by modeling the magnitude of dependence as a linear function of large-scale climate indices, i.e., Oceanic Niño Index or NAO index. After model comparison via suitable Bayesian metrics, we find no strong indication of such non-stationarity for most estuaries included in our analysis. However, when non-stationarity due to these climate modes cannot be neglected, this work highlights the importance of appropriately characterizing bivariate hazard under non-stationarity assumption. As an example, we find that during a strong El-Niño year, Galveston Bay, TX, is much more likely to experience a coincidence of abnormal sea level and elevated river stage.

Who gets to imagine a fossil-free future? Ontological politics of knowledge-action co-production in the Swedish just transition

ABSTRACT Just climate transitions require transformations reweaving the fabric of modern societies and necessitate co-production of knowledge and action informed by ontological and epistemic pluralism. I analyse knowledge politics of just transitions as ontological politics, observing how a Swedish research programme tries to bridge the ontologies of ‘green modernity’ and ‘resistance’ through that of ‘planetary boundaries’. I show how these ontologies generate distinctive ideas of transition/transformation and justice, governance theories and praxes, and understandings of knowledge-action links. The theoretical framework of political ontology reflects the imperative to deepen the discussions on the green transitions to include questions ‘beyond technical fixes’: well-being, reconnection between land and those who live on it, and a recognition of the Swedish colonial legacy. I argue that to go beyond tokenistic co-production, researchers must be ready and able to successfully navigate ontological politics in which knowledge production in just transitions is inevitably entangled.

Between the Necessity of Sanitation and the Urgency of Preparing Poor Areas in the Recife for the Climate Transition

Objective: The objective of this study is to examine the critical relationship between the absence or precariousness of essential public services and socio-environmental vulnerability, by analyzing communities of social interest located in hillside and wetland areas in the city of Recife. Theoretical Framework: The article explores the dilemma of intervening in two urgent issues involving poor communities in Recife: the provision of essential public basic sanitation services and/or mitigating actions to deal with the social and climatic challenges faced by the city's poorest and most vulnerable populations. Method: The study characterizes the predominance of urban, morphological and infrastructural conditions, including basic sanitation and the risks associated with the communities, based on the Geographic Information System for Poor Areas in the Recife Metropolitan Region (SIGAP-RMR). Results and Discussion: The results highlight a history of socio-spatial inequalities and environmental degradation, demonstrating that these two aspects are mutually aggravating factors. Originality/Value: Based on a reflection on climate transition, the study discusses how the lack of sanitation aggravates the adverse impacts of climate change on the residents of poor areas.

New Perspectives for Yerevan’s Circular Garden in View of the Environmental Transitional Challenges

Through the TACEESM research, a meta-design approach is focused on the factors influencing the "reasons and design forming factors of the project" for urban historical/contemporary urban heritages. The goal is to investigate the possibilities of working through mending and regenerative actions in view of the multiple environmental transitions and sustainable challenges. The methodological approach was assessed through a meta-design experimental workshop on Yerevan's Circular Garden. The approach integrates innovative scenarios, visions, and concepts in an inter-systemic method to rethink the urban habitat in an adaptive/co-evolutionary sense, re-establishing relationships, processes, and performances between nature and artefacts, as well as the psychological development level of current society. The experience showed the possibility of repositioning the green heritage design as a process of "mediance" through the techno-sphere, bio/physio-sphere, and anthropo-sphere to support multiple sustainable, alternative, and reversible projects. Considering the green heritage as a space-environmental interface system, it is possible to enable variable adaptative degrees to the different conditions generated from climatic, social, economic, health, and energy transitions.

Protecting the climate through EU supply chain legislation? Two critiques and a compromise

Abstract Climate change law faces a serious implementation problem. New instruments promoted by states from the Global North to address the implementation gap come from the sphere of trade and supply chain regulation. This article focuses on corporate climate due diligence legislation and its potential contribution to fulfilling the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement. By examining the EU’s legislative process towards adopting a Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), it explores various approaches to regulating the climate impacts of corporations, including along global supply chains. The article critiques both the ultimately adopted climate transition planning requirement and the European Parliament’s alternative proposal, which aimed to incorporate climate mitigation into the general due diligence framework of the Directive but was unsuccessful. It applies two overarching critiques, termed ‘not enough’ and ‘regulatory imperialism’, to the specific context of corporate climate due diligence. Although these critiques may initially appear contradictory, the article endeavours to reconcile them through a compromise approach that fosters greater participation, integrates measures to mitigate impacts on self-determination, and specifies the obligations imposed on corporations regarding climate mitigation. Finally, the article discusses the idea of a decentralised enforcement regime and highlights the importance of regulation in states of the Global South to achieve a truly planetary legal order on corporate climate accountability.

Energy Efficiency and Socio-Cultural Values in Public Policy in the City of Stockholm

ABSTRACT Cities face increasing challenges in reducing their impact on climate change while also preserving their cultural heritage, both older and more modern. This paper investigates the articulations of energy efficiency and cultural values in local public policies of the City of Stockholm. The municipality is particularly interesting in its self-imposed role as being world-leading in the climate transition. However, we argue that the city fails in undertaking a holistic approach to sustainability by not providing sufficient guidance on how energy efficiency and cultural values can be reconciled. Cross-sectorial and sectorial policy documents as well as the implementation of local directives and objectives in a large municipally owned housing company are studied. Two cases of renovation serve to demonstrate how policy is turned into practice and how energy efficiency aims and cultural values are assessed. One significant finding is the clear asymmetry between the steering ability of policy relative to energy efficiency and cultural values respectively. A major drawback is the lack of directives and guidelines concerning the built heritage, particularly at a building level, supporting decision-making when implementing necessary energy efficiency measures in buildings with cultural values. A recommendation made is to introduce cross-sectorial guidance in implementing energy efficiency measures in buildings with cultural values.

Climatic forcing of the Southern Ocean deep-sea ecosystem.

The deep-time development of the Southern Ocean's deep-sea ecosystem remains poorly understood, despite being a key region in global ecological, climatological, and oceanographic systems, where deep water forms and biodiversity is unexpectedly high.1,2 Here, we present an ∼500,000-year fossil record of the deep-sea Southern Ocean ecosystem in the subantarctic zone. The results indicate that changes in surface productivity and the resulting food supply to the deep sea, driven by eolian dust input and iron fertilization, along with changes in bottom-water temperature influenced by deep-water circulation, have controlled the deep-sea ecosystem in the Southern Ocean on orbital (104-105 years) timescales following the Mid-Brunhes event (MBE), a major climatic transition ∼430,000 years ago.3 However, before the MBE, the deep-sea Southern Ocean ecosystem was distinct from the present-day, post-MBE one. The present-day form of the deep-sea Southern Ocean ecosystem was established following the MBE, likely because of a stronger incursion of the warm North Atlantic deep water into the Southern Ocean after the MBE. Before that, the deep-sea Southern Ocean ecosystem lacked typical deep-sea faunal components and resembled deep, marginal sea fauna, likely because of the stronger thermal isolation of the Southern Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean. This result suggests that if future human-induced climatic warming weakens global deep-water circulation from the Atlantic through the Southern Ocean to the Pacific,4 a deep-sea biodiversity hotspot in the Southern Ocean may diminish or even vanish.

Evolution of Bioclimatic Belts in Spain and the Balearic Islands (1953–2022)

This study examines the spatio-temporal evolution of bioclimatic belts in peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands from 1953 to 2022 using the World Bioclimatic Classification System and data from 3668 meteorological stations. Findings indicate a shift toward warmer and more arid conditions, with thermotypes showing an increase in mesomediterranean and thermomediterranean types and a decrease in mesotemperate and supratemperate types. Ombrotype analysis revealed a rise in semiarid types and a decline in humid and hyperhumid types. Significant changes occurred in climate transition zones and mountainous regions, where a process of “Mediterraneanisation”—a process characterised by the expansion of warmer and drier conditions typical of Mediterranean climates into previously temperate areas and/or an altitudinal rise in thermotypes—has been observed. The spatial variability of changes in ombrotypes was greater than that in thermotypes, with regions showing opposite trends to the general one. These results highlight the need for adaptive conservation strategies, particularly in mountainous and climate transition areas, where endemic species may face increased vulnerability due to habitat loss and fragmentation. The results of this study provide insight into how climate change is affecting bioclimatological conditions in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.

A multi-period model for assessing the reinforcing dependence between climate transition and physical risks of non-life insurers

PurposeClimate risks are crucial for non-life insurers due to their significant exposure to both transition and physical risks. The aim of this study is to develop a multi-period model that represents climate risks in non-life insurance, encompassing the impacts of both physical and transition risks as well as their reinforcing dependence. Literature suggests that as physical climate risks increase, the urgency for climate policies intensifies, leading to higher climate transition risks.Design/methodology/approachOur model includes a stochastic transition process affecting assets based on their exposure in climate policy-relevant sectors (green and brown investments) and a dependence structure between this process and liabilities, where the physical risks manifest as an increase in claims.FindingsOur simulation indicates that the choice of the transition process, as well as the consideration of dependencies, has a significant influence on the insurers’ profit, but even more on the probability of ruin. The impact of green versus brown investment strategies varies considerably based on whether dependencies are taken into account or not.Originality/valueThe results of this study are intended to deepen the understanding of the effects of climate risks on non-life insurers and provide a quantitative analysis of the impact of green and brown investing within this framework.

Climate risk analysis: Definitions, measurements, strategies, and sectoral impacts

AbstractThe paper reviews and integrates the definitions, measurement techniques of climate risk, and its economic, social, and financial impacts. It systematizes the various dimensions of climate risk, including climate transition risks and physical risks, and how these risks are defined and understood in the current literature. The paper compiles the methodologies used to measure climate risks, highlighting innovative approaches such as big data analytics, machine learning, and complex network models. Additionally, it assesses the societal impacts of climate change, examining how different sectors, including agriculture, energy, transportation, and finance, are affected. By synthesizing findings from a broad range of studies, this review provides a detailed understanding of the multifaceted nature of climate risk and offers insights into effective risk management strategies. Significantly, this research serves as a crucial theoretical foundation for policymakers in formulating policies to combat climate change and for industry practitioners in devising investment strategies, thus providing practical implications that are essential for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on society. The paper aims to be a valuable resource for those working in this area.

Quo Vadis Climate Transition Risk? A Literature Review and Recommendations

This paper examines the academic research on climate transition risk. Theobjective of this study is to provide descriptive characteristics of research trends inthe field of climate transition risk and make recommendations based on major bibliometricdata such as authors, journals, citation figures, methodology, geographicalfocus and author’s location. The systematic literature review methodology was usedto obtain information on publications and intellectual structure related to climatetransition risk from the Scopus bibliographic database until November 2023. A searchstrategy was developed to screen the title for eligibility, using the abstract and full textwhere needed. The review showed that annual evolution has increased significantlyin recent years. Findings revealed a marked European and Chinese dominance with little contribution from Global South in this research field with limited contributionsfrom Global South in terms of focus and authors and organizations contributions. Thepredominant data source is data-set indices, with limited methodological diversity inclimate transition risk research. Findings also showed that authors from universities,research institutes and central banks are contributing to climate transition risk literature. The main themes in climate transition risk research are banking, climate policy,stock market, and asset price and performance. The impacts of climate change on interconnectedness,systemic risk and financial stability were widely covered in overlappingpublications.

Divergence over solutions to adapt or transform Australia’s Great Barrier Reef

There is increasing agreement among Australian policymakers and stakeholders that climate change is the biggest problem facing the Great Barrier Reef. However, little is known about whether this convergence shapes perspectives on solutions. To understand different actor perspectives on climate solutions for the Great Barrier Reef, we applied a ‘problem-solution’ framework employing Q-methodology to guide in-depth interviews with engaged actors. We found that despite growing convergence over the problem, significant divergence over the solutions remains. We identified six generalised perspectives on climate solutions ranging from technology-led adaptation at one end of the spectrum to radical climate transitions at the other. We found that support for market-led, regionally-led, and radical climate transitions represents a new shift toward transformational policy solutions beyond the conventional bounds of GBR governance. However, the multiple divergent perspectives suggest that more reflexive learning is required to effectively govern this critical ecosystem into the future.

How well do climate modes explain precipitation variability?

Large-scale modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole, show significant regional correlations with seasonal weather conditions, and are routinely forecast by meteorological agencies attempting to anticipate seasonal precipitation patterns. Here, we use machine learning together with more traditional approaches to quantify how much precipitation variability can be explained by large-scale modes of variability, and to understand the degree to which these modes interact non-linearly. We find that the relationship between climate modes and precipitation is predominantly non-linear. In some regions and seasons climate modes can explain up to 80% of precipitation variability. However, variability explained is below 10% for more than half of the land surface, and only 1% of the land shows values above 50%. This outcome provides a clear rationale to limit expectations of predictability from modes of variability in all but a few select regions and seasons.

The Metagenomic Properties of Uşak Tarhana Dough

This study investigated the bacterial diversity of geographically indicated Uşak tarhana using metagenomics. Tarhana dough samples were collected from local producers in different regions of the Uşak province. The samples were analyzed for their chemical and microbiological properties. The microbiota was examined through metagenomic analysis using high-throughput sequencing, followed by bioinformatic processing with QIIME2 and DADA2 tools. Taxonomic analyses revealed that Lactiplantibacillus plantarum and Fructilactobacillus sanfranciscensis were the dominant species in most samples. In Silico analysis confirmed the presence of Fructilactobacillus sanfranciscensis in the tarhana fermentation microbiota. Diversity analyses, including Shannon and Chao1 indices, indicated significant variation in microbial diversity and homogeneity among the samples. Differences in microbiota diversity were observed between tarhana produced in the northern and southern regions of Uşak. The bacterial diversity of the tarhana samples showed partial differences at the micro-local level, and these results suggested that the slight variation in bacterial diversity between the northern and southern regions might be related to mild climatic transition.

Coherent Modes of Global Coastal Sea Level Variability

AbstractSea level variations in the coastal zone can differ significantly from those in the open ocean and can be highly spatiotemporally coherent in the alongshore direction. Yet, where and how coastal sea levels exhibit variations that emerge as persistent and recurrent patterns along the world's coastlines remain poorly understood. Here, we use a Bayesian mixture model to identify large‐scale patterns of coherent modes of monthly coastal sea level variations from coastal altimetry and tide gauge data. We determine nine clusters of coherent coastal sea level variability that explain a majority of the monthly variance measured by tide gauges (1993–2020). The analysis of along track altimetry data enables us to detect several additional clusters in ungauged regions, such as the Indian Ocean or around the South Atlantic basin, which have so far been poorly described. Although some clusters (e.g., at the eastern boundary of the Pacific, the western tropical Pacific, and the marginal and semi‐enclosed seas) are highly correlated with climate modes, other clusters share very little variability with the considered climate modes at the monthly timescale. Knowledge of these coherent regions thus motivates and enables further investigations on the impacts of local and remote forcing on coastal sea level variability, and the extent to which coastal sea level variability is decoupled from the adjacent deep ocean.