Climate Space Research Articles

Evolutionary origins, macroevolutionary dynamics, and climatic niche space of the succulent plant syndrome in the Caryophyllales.

The succulent plant syndrome is defined by the coordination of traits that enhance internal water storage within plant tissues. Although distributed globally in different habitats, succulent plants are thought to have evolved to avoid drought in arid regions, due to trait modifications that decrease tissue water deficits. We evaluated the evolution and the ecological significance of the succulent strategy at a global scale by comparing the climatic niche of species displaying succulence within the Core Caryophyllales with their non-succulent relatives. We assembled and curated a worldwide dataset of 201K georeferenced records belonging to 5447 species within 28 families, and analyzed the climatic niche of species along with their origin and evolutionary trajectories using ecological niche modeling, phylogenetic regression, divergence dates and ancestral state estimation. Results indicate the Core Caryophyllales have inhabited drylands since their origin in the Early Cretaceous. However, the succulent syndrome appeared and diversified during later geologic periods. The climatic niche space of succulents is narrower than non-succulent relatives, but no climate niche separation was detected between groups. Our results support alternative interpretations on the environmental and ecological forces that spurred the origin and diversification of the succulent plant syndrome and the radiation of rich succulent lineages.

The effects of climate and population on human land use patterns in Europe from 22ka to 9ka ago

Between 22ka and 9ka ago, after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and during the transition to the Holocene, mobile hunter-gatherer populations, differentiated by their stone tool assemblages, periodically dispersed and contracted across Europe. It is well understood that climate played an important role in human distributions and population sizes during the post-LGM Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but the question remains as to whether increasing population sizes drove early human dispersal. Here, using a spatiotemporal species distribution model to infer the fundamental and potential human climatic niche space of Late Upper Paleolithic, Final Paleolithic and Early Mesolithic Europe, and hypotheses derived from the Ideal Distribution Model, we test i) how changes in climate affected the size and extent of the projected potential human niche space, ii) for effects of changes in size of projected potential niche on regional human population sizes, iii) whether increasing human population sizes drove human dispersal into less climatically suitable habitats, and iv) whether populations associated with different high-order material culture groupings (macro-level technocomplexes) occupied different climatic spaces. We find that changes in climate correlate strongly with the size and extent of the projected potential human niche space, that increases in the projected human niche space correlate with increases in human population, that human population size is just beginning to become large enough to influence land use and dispersal patterns at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, and that archaeological technocultural entities overlap in their fundamental climatic niche space. This overlap implies that changing tools forms cannot readily been seen as reflecting adaptations to changing climates.

Genetic structure and climate niche differentiation among populations of Leopardus geoffroyi.

Geoffroy's cat (Leopardus geoffroyi) is a small-sized felid native to South America. Given the species' distribution covering a wide variety of habitats, and the presence of high levels of anthropization in part of its range, it is possible that genetically differentiated groups exist and that they occupy different climatic niches. We assessed patterns of contemporary genetic diversity and structure in the species across most of its range, characterizing each inferred genetic group based on ecological niche models. We genotyped 11 microsatellites for 142 samples covering most of Geoffroy's cat distribution, and investigated patterns of genetic structure and diversity, applying spatial and nonspatial Bayesian clustering methods and a spatial principal component analysis. We created ecological niche models for each genetic cluster, evaluating whether these clusters occupy different climatic spaces and display differences in the suitability of different values of the climatic variables analyzed. We identified two genetic clusters, one in the north-northeast and the other in the south-southwest of the species' distribution. These clusters showed moderate FST values between them and differences in dispersal/genetic diversity. We found isolation-by-distance patterns globally and within each cluster. We observed lower expected heterozygosity compared with other studies and a north-south gradient in allelic richness. The southern cluster showed lower genetic variability and a more restricted climatic niche suggesting that this group is more vulnerable to the effects of the current context of climate change. Individuals from the southern genetic cluster are under different pressures, likely a product of the particularly dry habitat they occupy. Climatic variables associated with habitat suitability suggest the southern cluster has affinity for the arid and semiarid conditions present in its distribution. Conservation measures should consider the genetic structure observed and differences in climatic spaces to maintain the evolutionary potential of the species.

Phenotypic variation in 1,100 provenances of Picea abies measured over 50 years on 33 German trial sites

We present a database of Norway spruce phenotypic traits measured over a period of 51 years in provenance trials planted across western Germany. These trials are part of the ‘Inventory Provenance Test 1964/68 with Norway spruce’ (IPTNS) that tested a total of 1,100 provenances collected across Europe, both from the species natural and artificial range. Phenotypic traits (first height, later diameter at breast height, survival) were recorded at 33 trial sites of 100 provenances, each a subsample from the entire collection area that represents an approximately comparable climate space. The dataset contains 424,781 records of the same 65,518 trees ranging from age 7 to 51. Overall, it captures the considerable genetic and phenotypic intraspecific variation present in Norway spruce and should be of interest to various fields including quantitative genetics, ecology, biogeography and the adaptive management of forests.

Reassessing the alternative ecosystem states proposition in the African savanna-forest domain.

Ecologists are being challenged to predict how ecosystems will respond to climate changes. According to the Multi-Colored World (MCW) hypothesis, climate impacts may not manifest because consumers such as fire and herbivory can override the influence of climate on ecosystem state. One MCW interpretation is that climate determinism fails because alternative ecosystem states (AES) are possible at some locations in climate space. We evaluated theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that forest and savanna are AES in Africa. We found that maps which infer where AES zones are located were contradictory. Moreover, data from longitudinal and experimental studies provide inconclusive evidence for AES. That is, although the forest-savanna AES proposition is theoretically sound, the existing evidence is not yet convincing. We conclude by making the case that the AES proposition has such fundamental consequences for designing management actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the savanna-forest domain that it needs a more robust evidence base before it is used to prescribe management actions.

Tree species distributions in the United States and Canada under climate from 20,000 years ago to year 2100

Current locations of species may not be suited to future climate, resulting in ranges that shift to higher latitudes, with potential for range expansion or contraction in extent. To identify potential shifts in distributions of 119 tree species centered in the United States and Canada, I modeled species occurrences under current climate and then predicted to past (20, 10, and 6 thousand years ago) and future climates (six projections during 2071–2100 for North American warming of 4.3 °C to 8.8 °C), with a singular focus on the climate space of tree species, or bioclimatic envelope models. Mean accuracies of withheld samples for models, based on climate of 1900 to 1990, were 0.97, with an average of 6.2 variables per model; annual temperature and temperature of the warmest quarter generally were the most important variables. Based on model predictions under past and future climate, centers of species distributions shifted an average of 565 km latitudinally since climate 20,000 years ago and 440 km to 1065 km shifts were expected in response to end-of-century climates. Overall, 64 tree species may gain more area than lose area that matches current climate space under future climate, whereas 36 species may lose potential climate space, with relative stability for 19 species. Canada and the mountainous western U.S., and National Forests in the mountainous western U.S., were likely to gain climate space appropriate for these species, particularly species of the eastern U.S. Conversely, greatest number of species were predicted to be lost from most of the eastern half of the U.S.; National Forests in the southeastern U.S., particularly in Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas, may lose 25 to 50 of these tree species. Isolation of potential dynamics for tree species already native to northern North America demonstrated that a large pool of diverse species from the southeastern U.S. was predicted to have suitable climate space in Canada and the western U.S. It may be beneficial for managers to become familiar with tree species south or east of their regions, particularly climate-tolerant pine and oak species, to determine which ones are desirable to manage for the future.

The climate niche of Homo Sapiens

The increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will place humans in climates that are unprecedented in the evolution of the species. I use the ecological definition of the human niche in climate space, and combine this with a new constellation of methods from extreme value statistics to study human occupation near the boundaries of that niche. I find that the temperature distribution has a thin tail whereas the tail of precipitation is thick. This thick tail reflects that humans are used to a wide range of rainfall regimes, so future precipitation changes, although leading to unprecedented rainfall, are less likely to pose a major challenge. An increase in temperature, on the other hand, will put hundreds of millions of people in heat that is not just unprecedented and but also hard to imagine from extrapolating current temperatures. These findings are qualitatively similar but an order of magnitude smaller than previous studies.

Catalogue of Bombus wurflenii Radoszkowski, 1860 (Hymenoptera, Apidae) specimens deposited in the State Museum of Natural History NASU, Lviv, Ukraine

Bombus wurflenii Radoszkowski, 1860 belongs to the subgenus Alpigenobombus and is one of the 40 bumblebee species that occur in Ukraine. This Boreal-Alpine species has a disjunctive range and is confined to the mountains and hills of Europe. It occurs in Scandinavia, in central and southern Europe (the Cantabrian Mountains, the Pyrenees, the Alps, the Apennines, the Balkans, the Carpathians). It is also known from the far east of Europe (the Ural Mountains), and from the north-eastern Turkey and the Caucasus (Rasmont, Iserbyt, 2010-2012; Rasmont et al., 2015). All scenarios of future distribution of Bombus wurflenii project a moderate reduction of suitable areas by 2050. By 2100 the climatic niche space of the species would be even more restricted. With low dispersal capability and since Bombus wurflenii is a specialized species linked to cold boreal and alpine-subalpine conditions, it would suffer substantially from global warming (Rasmont et al., 2015). Bombus wurflenii is a medium sized bumblebee. It is highly adapted for “nectar robbing”, i. e. perforating holes at the base of long flower corollas to reach the nectar. To do this, it uses its modified mandibles, each with six denticles on outer margin . In Ukraine the species is represented by the subspecies B. wurflenii mastrucatus Gerst. and occurs in the Ukrainian Carpathians only. It inhabits mountain forests from a height of 500 m a. s. l. to the subalpine zone inclusive. The highest number of population of the species is observed within the altitude range of 800-1100 m above sea level (Konovalova, 2010). B. wurflenii is nesting underground, using the abandoned nests of rodents in beech, beech-spruce and spruce forests, in polonynas, meadows and also on rocky slopes in the subalpine. The emergence of queens from hibernation happens in late spring and early summer. The development of small colonies lasts until July-August, culminating in the emergence of new reproductive generation. In the Carpathian highlands B. wurflenii is considered a common one. However, during last decades, the destruction of both nesting sites and forage flora of this species due to excessive recreational pressure, is a serious factor threatening the persistence of its population. For this reason, B. wurflenii has been included into the Red Book of the Ukrainian Carpathians as vulnerable one, also taking into account a relatively limited area inhabited by populations of the species. The species plays a significant role in the pollination of high mountain flora. A feeding diet of this bumblebee in the Ukrainian Carpathians includes at least 23 plant species belonging to 16 families (unpublished data of the author). Among its favourite forage plants are: Centaurea phrygia subsp. carpatica (Porcius) Dostál, Cirsium waldsteinii Rouy, Gentiana asclepiadea L., Rhododendron kotschyi Simonk., Vaccinium spp., Aconitum spp. In the entomological collection of the State Museum of Natural History, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 42 specimens of B. wurflenii have been deposited. Only one specimen belongs to an old historical collection. It was collected from the Tatry Mts. in Poland on 30.07.1905 and identified by J. Snieżek. From the present territory of Ukraine B. wurflenii was recorded for the first time in 1939 in Chornohora mountain range, at an altitude of 1500 m a.s.l. (Fudakowski et al., 1939). The recent part of the collection includes specimens, found from 2000 to 2006 in mountain regions of Ivano-Frankivska and Zakarpatska provinces of Ukraine (fig. 1). The recent collection of B. wurflenii represents all three castes of the species: 1 queen, 32 workers and 8 males. Bumblebees were collected during June, July and August within altitudes of 800-1700 m a.s.l. in the following physiographic regions: UC: PlChr: Chornohora massif; UC: PlChr: Svydovets massif; UC: OCVV: Gg: Outer Gorgany range. The vast majority of specimens have been collected in protected territories: Carpathian Biosphere Reserve (Chornohora protected massif, Svydovets protected massif) and Carpathian National Nature Park.

From Retrofitting to Renewables: Navigating Energy Transition Pathways for European Residential Space Heating

Transformative actions are crucial across all sectors emitting greenhouse gases. Nonetheless, energy transition research to date displays a notable imbalance, with a larger emphasis on the supply side than on the demand side. The present study addresses this inequity by focusing on residential sector space heating demand, a frequently overlooked energy service that currently contributes substantially to global greenhouse gas emissions. Our primary objective is to pinpoint effective climate policies and space heating strategies that align with the EU’s ambitious targets for emission reduction. We employ the recently developed TIMES-Europe model to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the residential sector’s policy frameworks, technological advancements, and associated costs. This analysis aims to determine the measures necessary to meet ambitious climate objectives within the European context. To achieve this, we formulate four distinct scenarios, each representing varying levels of ambition and collaboration among EU member states, thereby providing insight into the pathways toward achieving these targets. By implementing current intended EU policies on the renovation of dwellings, we project a substantial reduction of at most 850 PJ, or, i.e., a 19% decrease, in yearly energy demand for space heating between 2020 and 2050. In contrast, if the recent pace of dwelling renovation within the EU were to continue, space heating energy savings from renovation would only amount to less than 400 PJ/yr (i.e., a 9% reduction) in the same period. In our more ambitious climate scenarios, phasing out fossil fuels leads to widespread electrification of the European residential sector, and by 2050, electricity from heat pumps and electric boilers accounts for over 68% of the total residential sector space heating demand. The outcomes of our study underline the importance of implementing the currently planned EU policies. We also demonstrate the necessity for collaboration among EU member states in order to attain the common European climate targets under the most effective resource allocation.

MEDIS—A comprehensive spatial database on Mediterranean islands for biogeographical and evolutionary research

AbstractMotivationThe intrinsic characteristics of islands make them a unique study system for the investigation of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. The Mediterranean Basin, an island‐rich biodiversity hotspot, still lacks a comprehensive spatial database for these geographic features. This study presents the first comprehensive spatial database of all Mediterranean islands larger than 0.01 km2, aiding ecological investigations and interdisciplinary research.Main types of variable containedThe MEDIS spatial database offers detailed information on 39 geographic, climatic, ecological and land‐use variables, including island area, perimeter, isolation metrics, climatic space, terrain data, land cover, palaeogeography, road networks and geological information, providing a multifaceted view of each island's characteristics.Spatial location and grainThe study encompasses 2217 islands in the Mediterranean Basin larger than 0.01 km2. The spatial grain of the datasets on which the selected variables are based varies from 10 m (ESA WorldCover) to 1 km (CHELSA‐BIOCLIM+).Time period and grainThe spatial database incorporates data from various sources, each with its own timeframe, such as the Global Shoreline Vector from 2014 Landsat imagery and the WorldCover dataset from 2021. Historical data like the Paleocoastlines GIS dataset offer insights into island configurations during the Last Glacial Maximum.Major taxa and level of measurementWhile not focusing on specific taxa, the study lays the foundation for comprehensive research on Mediterranean islands, facilitating comparisons and investigations into the distribution of native, endemic or alien species. The level of measurement is extensive, encompassing a wide range of variables and providing polygonal features rather than centroids' coordinates.

Investigating the effects of species niche shifts on the potential distribution of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) by using global occurrence data.

Invasive species may occupy quite different environments in their invaded areas to native ones, which may intensively interfere with predicting potential distribution through ecological niche modeling (ENM). Here, we take the tomato leafminerTuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), a tomato pest, as an example to investigate this topic. We analyzed niche expansion, stability, unfilling, and Schoener's D by principal component analysis (PCA)ordination method to examine its realized niche shifts and to explore how ENM approaches are affected by niche shifts. We used 5 datasets: Asian, African, European, South American, and global occurrence records in this study. Results showed that high niche unfilling for the species' invaded areas in Asia (20%), Africa (12%), and Europe (37%), possibly due to T. absoluta being in the early stages of invasion. High niche expansion was observed in Asia (38%) and Europe (19%), implying that some European and Asian populations had reached new climatic areas. African niche had the most niche stability (94%) and was equivalent to the native one in climate space (PCA ordination method), but the n-dimensional climate space framework showed that they were different. When projecting the native model to Asia and Europe, the native model performed poorly, implying that the niche shifts affected the transferability of the native model. ENM based on global data outperformed than other models, and our results suggested that T. absoluta has a large potential distribution in Asia, Mexico, South Europe, the United States, and Australia. Meanwhile, we recommend updating ENMs based on the species' invasion stage.

Multiple sources of evidence unravel a complex taxonomic history: the new genus Leonoria of the Spermacoce clade (Spermacoceae-Rubiaceae)

For a long time, the taxonomic status of Denscantia, a genus endemic to the Atlantic Forest along the Brazilian coast, has been a topic of discussion. Phylogenetic analyses using two nuclear and four chloroplast DNA markers from 82 accessions representing 19 genera of the Spermacoce clade (tribe Spermacoceae, Rubiaceae) confirm that the Brazilian genus Denscantia is biphyletic. Together with the recovered phylogenetic relationships, the analyses of reproductive morphological characters, leaf morphology and anatomy, histochemical, geographic distribution ranges, and ecological niche derived from climatic space further demonstrate that Denscantia calcicola is a distinct lineage from the other Denscantia species. Therefore, the above-mentioned species should be taxonomically designated as a new monospecific genus, Leonoria. Significant morphological differences between Leonoria and Denscantia were found in inflorescence organization, style shape, fruit dehiscence and pollen morphology. Morphological and anatomical variation among leaf traits was found in epidermal cells, trichome distribution, mesophyll histochemistry and vascular organization. The analysis of occurrence records of 207 specimens demonstrates a clear ecological distinction between of Denscantia s.s. and Leonoria, which is ecologically confined to limestone outcrops associated with seasonally dry forests. The current study highlights the importance of an integrative taxonomic approach combining multiple sources of evidence to unravel complex taxonomic history within Spermacoceae.

Ecosystem service multifunctionality and trade-offs in English Green Belt peri-urban planning

Green Belt policies govern peri-urban landscapes globally by restricting built development. Yet, they often have little consideration for the land within them. This is especially the case in England where ecosystem services are poorly accounted for in Green Belt policy, whilst also being viewed as a development obstacle, with few environmental and social benefits; a situation mirrored in peri-urban landscapes globally. Moreover, there is a significant research gap into Green Belts through the socio-ecological lenses of ecosystem services and multifunctionality, which allows populist discourses to go unchallenged. Using modelling and participatory mapping data this paper addresses this gap by quantifying the ecosystem service supply, trade-offs and multifunctionality of the North-East Green Belt, and the wider planning and policy implications. The results show that contrary to claims, Green Belts in England can and do provide multiple benefits to people when studied through these lenses. However, levels of individual ecosystem services and overall multifunctionality differ spatially within Green Belts resulting in opportunity areas as well as potential losses of ecosystem services from development. Areas of deciduous and coniferous woodland as well as key “green wedges” close to urban populations were found to be multifunctionality “hots-spots”, whereas arable and improved grassland provide notable “cold-spots”. Trade-offs were mostly from provisioning services. We argue that Green Belt policies explicitly and holistically accounting for ecosystem services could catalyse a multifunctional opportunity space for climate, nature and people in peri-urban landscapes. Additionally, our study demonstrates the conceptual merits of ecosystem service multifunctionality for planning.

The Neanderthal niche space of Western Eurasia 145 ka to 30 ka ago

Neanderthals occupied Western Eurasia between 350 ka and 40 ka ago, during the climatically volatile Pleistocene. A key issue is to what extent Neanderthal populations expanded into areas of Western Eurasia and what conditions facilitated such range expansions. The range extent of Neanderthals is generally based on the distribution of Neanderthal material, but the land-altering nature of glacial periods has erased much of the already sparse material evidence of Neanderthals, particularly in the northern latitudes. To overcome this obstacle species distribution models can estimate past distributions of Neanderthals, however, most implementations are generally constrained spatially and temporally and may be artificially truncating the Neanderthal niche space. Using dated contexts from Neanderthal sites from across Western Eurasia, millennial-scale paleoclimate reconstructions, and a spatiotemporal species distribution model, we infer the fundamental climatic niche space of Neanderthals and estimate the extent of Neanderthal occupation. We find that (a.) despite the long timeframe, Neanderthals occupy a relatively narrow fundamental climatic niche space, (b.) the estimated projected potential Neanderthal niche space suggests a larger geographic range than the material record suggests, and (c.) that there was a general decline in the size of the projected potential Neanderthal niche from 145 ka ago onward, possibly contributing to their extinction.

Responses of Three Pedicularis Species to Geological and Climatic Changes in the Qinling Mountains and Adjacent Areas in East Asia.

The Qinling Mountains in East Asia serve as the geographical boundary between the north and south of China and are also indicative of climatic differences, resulting in rich ecological and species diversity. However, few studies have focused on the responses of plants to geological and climatic changes in the Qinling Mountains and adjacent regions. Therefore, we investigated the evolutionary origins and phylogenetic relationships of three Pedicularis species in there to provide molecular evidence for the origin and evolution of plant species. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict the geographic distributions of three Pedicularis species during the last interglacial period, the last glacial maximum period, and current and future periods, respectively. Furthermore, the distribution patterns of climate fluctuations and the niche dynamics framework were used to assess the equivalence or difference of niches among three Pedicularis species. The results revealed that the divergence of three Pedicularis species took place in the Miocene and Holocene periods, which was significantly associated with the large-scale uplifts of the Qinling Mountains and adjacent regions. In addition, the geographic distributions of three Pedicularis species have undergone a northward migration from the past to the future. The most important environmental variables affecting the geographic distributions of species were the mean diurnal range and annual mean temperature range. The niche divergence analysis suggested that the three Pedicularis species have similar ecological niches. Among them, P. giraldiana showed the highest niche breadth, covering nearly all of the climatic niche spaces of P. dissecta and P. bicolor. In summary, this study provides novel insights into the divergence and origins of three Pedicularis species and their responses to climate and geological changes in the Qinling Mountains and adjacent regions. The findings have also provided new perspectives for the conservation and management of Pedicularis species.

Modelling tools for including climate change in pest risk assessments

AbstractThis paper provides a comprehensive overview of the modelling tools available for integrating climate change impacts into pest risk assessments (PRA), elucidating the existing methodologies and models employed to understand the potential distributions of pests based on historical data and under future climate change scenarios. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these models and provide commentary on their ability to identify emerging threats due to climate change accurately and adequately, considering pest establishment likelihood, host crop exposure and the distribution of impacts. The simplest methods are based on climate‐matching models, degree‐day development models and Köppen–Geiger climate classification. Correlative species distribution models derive species–environment relationships and have been applied to PRA with mixed success. When fitted models are applied to different continents they are usually challenged to extrapolate climate suitability patterns outside the climate space used to train them. Global climate change is creating novel climates, exacerbating this ‘transferability’ problem. Some tools have been developed to reveal when these models are extrapolating. Process‐oriented models, which focus on mechanisms and processes rather than distribution patterns, are inherently more reliable for extrapolation to novel climates such as new continents and future climate scenarios. These models, however, require more skill and generally more knowledge of the species to craft robust models.

Vegetation Phenological Differences Between Polar‐ and Equatorial‐Facing Slopes in the Three Rivers Source Region, Tibetan Plateau

AbstractVegetation growth is influenced by the microclimate driven by aspects, as evident in the asymmetric vegetation greenness on polar‐facing slopes (PFS) and equatorial‐facing slopes (EFS). However, it remains uncertain whether aspects influence vegetation phenology. To address this question, we defined the aspect‐induced phenological differences between PFS and EFS from 2019 to 2022 within each 3 × 3 km2 grid, using average phenological metrics extracted from Sentinel‐2 data. We found that the start of the growing season (SOS) occurs earlier on EFS in cold and humid regions, but in arid areas, PFS has an earlier SOS. The end of the growing season (EOS) consistently occurred later on EFS due to radiation limitations in autumn phenology. Employing the space‐for‐time approach, the observed distribution of phenological differences within the climate space could potentially indicate the phenological trends of different slope orientations in the future. Our study provides valuable insights into topographic regulation on vegetation phenology.

On the rocks: Biogeography and floristic identity of rocky ecosystems in eastern South America

AbstractThe geodiversity of rocky ecosystems includes diverse plant communities with specific names, but their continental‐scale floristic identity and the knowledge on the role of macroclimate remain patchy. Here, we assessed the identity of plant communities in eastern Brazil across multiple types of rocky landscapes and evaluated the relative importance of climatic variables in constraining floristic differentiation. We provided lists of diagnostic species and an assessment of the conservation status of the identified floristic groups. We compiled a data set of 151 sites (4498 species) from rocky ecosystems, including campos rupestres, campos de altitude, granitic‐gneiss lowland inselbergs, and limestone outcrops. We used unsupervised clustering analysis followed by ANOSIM to assess floristic groups among sites. We performed a random forest variable selection to test whether the identified floristic groups occupy distinct climatic spaces. Six groups (lithobiomes) segregated floristically according to lithology and climate. Alongside campos de altitude and limestone outcrops, inselbergs were divided according to the biome in which they occur (Atlantic Forest or Caatinga), and campos rupestres were largely segregated according to their lithological matrix (ironstone or quartzitic). Plant communities of Caatinga inselbergs were more similar to limestone outcrops, while Atlantic Forest inselbergs communities resembled campos de altitude. The composition of plant communities on outcrops seems to be largely constrained by lithology, but climatic factors are also meaningful for sites with similar lithology. The current network of protected areas does not cover these unique ecosystems and their floristic heterogeneity, with Caatinga inselbergs and limestone outcrops being the least protected.

Prioritizing rare climate space enhances plant biodiversity in national conservation area networks

Protected areas (PAs) planning often encounters obstacles globally due to the scarcity of reliable and systematic biodiversity data covering wide areas. Understanding the interaction between climate and biodiversity patterns can offer a novel approach to spatial conservation prioritization, considering the impact of climate on species distributions and the global availability of climate data. Here we used climate-based planning to develop national networks of PAs by prioritizing “climate space”, which represents the multidimensional climatic conditions in a specific area. We assessed four climate-selecting strategies using Marxan to enhance average plant species richness and species composition’ s complementarity in candidate PAs: (1) random selection; (2) prioritizing rare climates; (3) prioritizing common climates; and (4) equal representation for each climate condition. We identified the spatial heterogeneity of national climate conditions in South Korea, with unique climates shaped by geographic and topographic diversity. Notably, prioritizing rare climates consistently resulted in higher average plant species richness and complementarity within candidate PAs. Rare climates exhibited high spatial similarity with high plant species richness and showed significant overlaps and strong connectivity to existing PAs. Rare climatic zones in South Korea have greater geodiversity and lower human population density, providing opportunities for distinct ecosystems and habitats for rare species. Our methodology, which can be easily replicated, offers spatial-explicit and quantitative prioritization of resource allocation in a nation or region with limited biological data.

Exploring the Climatic Niche Evolution of the Genus Falco (Aves: Falconidae) in Europe.

By integrating species distribution modeling techniques, phylogenetic comparative methods, and climatic data, we analyzed how European falcon climatic niches have changed over evolutionary time in order to understand their tempo and mode of evolution and gain phylogenetic insights related to the ecological context of falcon evolution. For this purpose, we tested the relative contributions of niche conservatism, convergent evolution, and divergent evolution in the evolutionary history of this group of species in Europe. The occupation of climatic niche spaces by falcon species in Europe was not similar, considering that their climatic niche evolution was characterized by heterotachy, especially after ca. 4 Mya. Our results indicate that convergent evolution and niche divergence played an important role in the evolutionary history of these species, with no significant evidence of closely related species retaining their fundamental niche over time (phylogenetic niche conservatism). In most analyses, less closely related falcon species occupied similar climatic environments. We found that speciation in the European genus Falco was influenced by climatic niche differentiation, more prevalent in the last 4 million years, with the main climatic niche shifts occurring between closely related falcon species.