Climate Services Research Articles

What do vegetable farmers expect from climate services to adapt to climate change by 2060? A case study from the Parisian region

Climate services are an important tool providing information for many sectors to adapt to climate change. For agriculture, the impacts of climate change vary between regions and between crops, and farmers' needs for climate information are also determined by local context. The purpose of this paper is to identify the climate information needs of vegetable farmers, and to discuss these needs within the specific context of the Parisian region. Based on participatory workshops in three areas of the Parisian region, and using regional downscaled data from the French climate services, this study addresses the following question: what do vegetable farmers of a peri-urban area expect from climate services to adapt to climate change by 2060? Participatory workshops with agricultural expert allowed us to build a preliminary set of climate variables based on crops' vulnerability to high temperatures, mild temperature in winter, late frost, low relative air humidity, low precipitation, and climate extremes such as drought, heat waves and floods. Based on this set of variables climate projection on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales were provided to farmers for the near (2021–2040) and distant (2041–2060) future, as well as for past period (1990–2020) and discussed during 3 participatory workshops. Based on farmer’s feedbacks, we made a synthesis of climate information required by farmers which was validated and further discussed in a last round of workshops involving farmers and agricultural advisers. Three main findings emerge from this participatory study. Our first finding shows the need for both climate and non-climate information for vegetable farming adaptation. Specific needs include information on wind speed peaks and directions, soil moisture, climate analogous spaces (or sites), and urban planning regulations (constraining the possibility to build greenhouses or tunnels to adapt to climate change). Our second finding is that farmers expect from climate services to visualise a comprehensive climatic situation, that is, a whole conjunction of several inter-related variables, rather than precise and detailed variations of a single one. Seasonal and annual time scales seem to be the most relevant for farmers’ adaptation strategies (except for frost requiring more precise information). Our third finding is that these needs remain context-specific and depend on water access, the market demand (here Parisian), and the peri-urban location.

Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective

Under the pressing warming of climate, interpretable and useful-for-adaptation information has become a need in society and has promoted rapid methodological advances in climate science. One such advance is the development of the dynamical-storyline approach, with which the spread in multi-model scenario projections can be represented as a set of physically plausible scenarios (storylines) defined by (a) a global warming level and (b) changes in large-scale dynamical conditions that arise from climate forcing. Moreover, if changes in regional climate are assessed in such a way that they can clearly inform societal systems or management of natural ecosystems, they can potentially aid decision-making in a practical manner. Such is the aim of the climatic impact-driver (CID) framework, proposed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we combine the dynamical-storyline approach with the CID framework and apply them to climate services. We focus on CIDs associated with the viticulture sector and the region of the South American Andes, where currently both Argentina and Chile produce wine. We explain the benefits of this approach from a communication and adaptation perspective. In particular, we found that the CIDs related to seasonally aggregated temperatures are mainly dependent on the global warming level although in some regions, but they can also be sensitive to changes in dynamical conditions. Meanwhile, CIDs related to extreme temperature values and precipitation depend strongly on the dynamical response. We show how adaptation to climate-related compound risks can be informed by a storyline approach, given that they can address compound uncertainty in multiple locations, variables and seasons.

Spatial data infrastructure components to provide regional climate information services

The assessment of expected climate changes on a regional scale requires appropriate data and information products that must be easily accessible and usable for decision makers. The regional climate information platform ReKIS is a long-established project of three German federal states to address this purpose. However, with increasing content, this web-based data exchange platform lacked in suitable metadata descriptions, search functionalities and interoperability, thus hampering the discovery and access of suitable information. This paper describes the extending and enhancing of ReKIS using state-of-the-art components of Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI). The components support metadata acquisition, maintenance and publishing using a metadata catalogue. The implementation of a WebGIS server increases interoperability by offering OGC-compliant services and a web framework for knowledge-transfer allows for non-expert access to climate services. The approaches were developed and implemented in a real-world scenario and are suitable for a transfer to other comparable platforms and use cases.

A third-party perspective for examining employee reactions to witnessing coworker incivility towards customers

Drawing on moral self-regulatory theory, this study uses the experience sampling method to examine how and when employees, as third parties, react to coworker incivility towards customers. Data from 246 front-line employees in China showed that coworker incivility towards customers was positively related to hostility towards coworkers and, in turn, more workplace ostracism towards coworkers. Meanwhile, coworker incivility towards customers was also positively related to state-based moral disengagement and, in turn, more incivility towards customers. The above effects depended on employees’ perceived service climate such that when employees had a higher (versus lower) level of perceived service climate, the above effects were attenuated. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

Climate services for agriculture: Steering towards inclusive innovation in Australian climate services design and delivery

CONTEXTClimate services are integral to climate change adaptation in agriculture. Inclusive innovation prioritises inclusion of marginalised actors, grassroots knowledge and accessibility of use. Yet many innovation processes are multi-stakeholder, complex and may not prioritise inclusion from the outset. In these circumstances, researchers and designers may seek to influence existing projects towards greater inclusivity. OBJECTIVESThis paper explores efforts to increase the inclusivity of existing innovation processes, focusing on the design of My Climate View, an online Australian climate services platform for agriculture. Findings relate to contemporary issues in inclusive innovation literature, including: (1) Who should be included in innovation processes (within given resourcing)?; (2) How requirements for inclusion or exclusion can emerge through the design and use of a technology; and (3) The influence of program level structures upon inclusivity and design. METHODSOur approach is informed by Responsible Innovation and Inclusive Innovation theory and enacted through user-centred design. Findings are synthesised from analysis of 60 semi-structured interviews with farmers, advisors and extension officers. We additionally draw on observations as researchers in the multi-actor My Climate View development team, where extensive engagement separate to research activities has included agricultural and Indigenous stakeholders. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONEngaging with a broad sample of potential target users enabled diverse and sometimes unexpected use cases. Customisation of interface parameters allowed the incorporation of tacit knowledge and positively affected the inclusivity of My Climate View, extending the value of the platform to growers of niche commodities outside of the original scope. Inclusivity in innovation can be impacted by diverse factors, including design team decisions, structural factors, budget and external factors. Requirements for inclusion and exclusion can emerge and evolve throughout a design process, supporting Responsible Innovation's framing of inclusivity alongside principles of reflexivity and responsiveness. SIGNIFICANCEThe findings enrich the evidence base for climate services and broader agricultural technology development processes by providing insights for those seeking greater impact by practicing inclusivity in innovation. We provide four implications for increasing inclusivity in the design of climate services: (1) Maximising customisation and avoiding prescriptive interpretation enables greater flexibility of use; (2) Sampling broadly within target users to uncover unanticipated values and opportunities for inclusion and exclusion; (3) It is important to embed efforts towards inclusion alongside processes of reflexivity; and (4) Responsible and inclusive approaches to climate services design are valuable even if brought in once development has commenced.

Co-producing an urban heat climate service for UK cities: A case study of Belfast, Northern Ireland

UK city decision makers in local governments are coming under increasing pressure to plan for extreme heat events due to the increasing frequency and intensity of such events. While these local authorities are aware of the potential impacts of climate change, many highlight the need for more robust evidence of local climate risks to inform climate planning. Characterising the current and future spatial variability of heat risks can help city decision makers identify vulnerable populations, inform planning, and prioritise action. This paper explores the co-development of a prototype urban heat climate service for UK cities with stakeholders in the pilot city of Belfast, Northern Ireland. This two-tier service uses the latest high-resolution UK Climate Projections to assess changes in impact relevant heat indicators summarised in a bespoke set of factsheets for building awareness (Tier 1). Tier 2 combines this information with socio-economic and built environment data to provide geospatial, decision-relevant, heat risk information at the sub-city scale using a Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) and communicated using StoryMaps. This work highlights the importance of considering the different components of risk (hazard, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) when planning interventions for extreme heat to ensure local vulnerabilities are adequately addressed. It also highlights the minimum level of heat risk to which we are now committed locally under current emission pledges. This work also explores the lessons learnt in co-production, the impact this service has had on local decision making and explores options for upscaling.

Climate change impacts on the tourism sector of the Spanish Mediterranean coast: Medium-term projections for a climate services tool

The Mediterranean Sea is a climate change hotspot since it provides a magnified warming signal. Heavily populated areas (e.g., Spanish Mediterranean coasts) are vulnerable to negative socio-economic impacts. This is particularly important for climate-related economic sectors such as coastal tourism, the focus of this paper. To promote a sustainable development of these activities and provide key information to stakeholders, it is necessary to anticipate changes in climate. Thus, it is fundamental to use climate modelling tools which account for air-sea interactions, which largely determine the climate signal of the Mediterranean coasts. In this paper, a set of regional air-sea coupled climate model simulations from Med-CORDEX are used to (i) study the climatic conditions on the Spanish Mediterranean coasts in the next decade(s) and (ii) to assess the possibility of extending the coastal tourist season towards spring-fall. We show that climate conditions are getting warmer and drier in the area, especially in summer. Heat waves and heavy precipitation will become more frequent. Thermal discomfort will increase in summer and summer conditions are extending towards spring and fall. Our work remarks the urgent need of adaptation measures of the sector, including the extension of the high tourist season to spring-fall, especially in the long term. We make a special effort to compile a set of adaptation measures for stakeholders. This study is part of the project ECOAZUL-MED, which aims to create a climate service tool to optimize the management of relevant sectors of the blue economy in the Spanish Mediterranean coasts.

Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies

Scenario analysis is a widely employed method for addressing uncertainties when assessing the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. Global scenarios have been extensively used in this context. However, these scenarios are in most cases not suitable for supporting local analyses. On the other hand, locally developed scenarios may lack the global context, thus having limited comparability with or transferability to other locations. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), which have been primarily developed for climate impact research, provide the possibility to extend the existing global narratives and adapt them to local characteristics in order to develop locally relevant scenarios. Here, we propose a methodological framework for producing harmonized scenarios across different case studies. This framework was developed in the EVOKED project and combines elements of top-down and bottom-up approaches to develop local scenarios for four regions in northern Europe. We employ the SSP as boundary conditions and, in cooperation with stakeholders from these four regions, develop local scenarios for a range of SSP. The developed sets of scenarios are consistently informed by global developments and are therefore comparable with other downscaled scenarios developed in different regions. At the same time, they have been based on local participatory processes, thus being locally credible and relevant to the needs of stakeholders. The local scenarios constitute a climate service per se as they can raise stakeholder awareness of the processes that will drive risk, exposure, and adaptive capacity in the future and inform discussions on mitigation strategies and adaptation pathways.

A Move towards Developing Usable Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Services for the Agricultural Sector

Dryland farming is at the center of increasing pressure to produce more food for the growing population in an environment that is highly variable and with high expectations for the standard of their production systems. While there is mounting pressure for increased productivity, the responsibility to protect the environment and diminish the agricultural sector’s carbon footprint is receiving growing emphasis. Achieving these two goals calls for a consolidated effort to ensure that the scientific community and service providers partner with farmers to create a sustainable food production system that does not harm the environment. In this paper, we studied the nature of the services present in the market and identified ways that could be used to improve the climate services available to the agricultural sector. Important factors that could increase the usability of climate services include coproduction, context-specific information, innovation, demand-driven services, timeliness of services, highly applicable information, provision of services in the correct format, services that increase user experience, specificity of services to a locale, and services that are easily accessible.

Adaptation to sea level rise in France

Sea level rise due to climate change is an ongoing process that will continue for centuries and millennia. In response to this, France is increasingly considering sea level rise in its coastal risks and land use policies. Here, we show that despite real progress in coastal adaptation policies made so far, major challenges remain. We report progress regarding the consideration of ongoing erosion and flooding during storms, in particular owing to an evolving national regulation increasingly supporting the implementation of a nationally defined integrated coastal zones management strategy. Yet, chronic flooding at high-tides in ports and cities expected to emerge in the 2030s, as well as permanent flooding and shoreline retreat projected to take place within centuries without major protection works remain largely unaddressed to date. Major questions remain in terms of adaptation finance and other measures supporting coastal adaptation such as climate services. Finally, the topic of coastal adaptation lacks connections with the broader context of transformations needed to address climate change, biodiversity losses, and meet the sustainable development goals. The case of France exemplifies how an evolving adaptation planning, which takes decades to implement, can ultimately fall short of effectively addressing major transformational challenges and achieving climate resilient development. We argue that a clear and transparent public debate on climate change and the nature of solutions could help bridge the gap between ongoing adaptation and transformative measures in line with the challenges.

The Impact of “Hot Models” on a CMIP6 Ensemble Used by Climate Service Providers in Canada: Do Global Constraints Lead to Appreciable Differences in Regional Projections?

Abstract Canadian climate service providers offer projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to help inform climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions. CMIP6 includes several “hot” climate models whose sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcings exceeds the likely range inferred from multiple lines of evidence. Global warming estimates assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were reduced by applying observational constraints on the historical rate of warming to the CMIP6 ensemble. This study assesses whether globally constrained CMIP6 projections for Canada are appreciably different from unconstrained projections. Two constraints are considered: one that removes models whose transient climate response lies outside the AR6 assessed range (TCRlikely), and the other that weights models to match the assessed distribution of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECSall). Both constraints lead to appreciably cooler and drier projections than the unconstrained ensemble, with the strongest reductions seen in the upper end of the ensemble range, high-emissions scenario, end-of-century time period, and northern regions of Canada. In this case, constrained projections of annual mean temperature are 2°–3°C cooler than the unconstrained projections, whereas projections of annual total precipitation are typically 20%–40% drier. Appreciable differences are also detected in the ensemble median of temperature extreme indices. Based on these results, it is recommended that a constrained ensemble be considered for regional projections to avoid the “hot model” problem. Alternatively, projections can be communicated conditional on a specified level of global warming, with global constraints then used to inform the timing of the warming level exceedance.

Building a democratic expertise to inform labour’s struggle for a just transition

ABSTRACT Increasingly, the concept of a just transition is shaping labour’s view of environmental justice but the experience of trade unions working towards just transitions has been mixed, although much action has built on the existing relationships that trade unions have had with their members, other trade unions and civil society organisations. Recent analysis of trade union environmental action has found that a more radical approach is needed that will promote the long-term interests of labour in what has been described as the just transition. This paper argues that if trade unions want future, more transformative strategies, they will have to build their own expertise, building on their own research which has informed their own democratic expertise. This paper makes a contribution to this process by identifying ‘Three Pillars’ which could be used to inform trade union thinking and action. The Three Pillars are: (a) critical analysis of current net-zero policies, (b) new green, industrial strategies supported by social infrastructure, (c) changing labour-environmental relationships. The paper includes a case study of a trade union which is campaigning for a new National Climate Service.

Tailored Investments Needed to Support Weather, Water, Ice, and Climate Services in the Polar Regions

Abstract The Polar Prediction Project (PPP), one of the flagship programs of the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), has come to an end after a decade of intensive and coordinated international observing, modeling, verification, user engagement, and education activities. While PPP facilitated many advancements in modeling and forecasting, critical investment is now required to turn prediction science into salient environmental services for the polar regions. In this commentary, the members of the Societal and Economic Research and Applications task team of PPP, a group of social scientists and service delivery specialists, identify a number of insights and lessons that are critical for the implementation of the follow-up program Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS). We argue that in order to raise the societal value of polar environmental services, we need to better understand the diversity of highly specific user contexts; to tailor the actionability of weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) service development in the polar regions through inclusive transdisciplinary approaches to coproduction; to assess the societal impact of improved environmental services in the polar regions; and to invest and provide dedicated funding for involving the social sciences in research and tailoring processes across all the polar regions.

HABITABILITY CONDITIONS IN SELF-CONSTRUCTED RURAL HOUSES WITHIN INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES

In the Multidimensional Poverty Index, housing conditions carry a weight of 25%. In Ecuador in 2022, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses, the rate of multidimensional poverty in rural areas was 70%, while the rate of extreme multidimensional poverty stood at 41%, accompanied by a Gini Index of 0.433. Paradoxically, the processes of globalization related to construction and modern material resources adapted from ancestral knowledge have led to worse habitability conditions in communities settled in the rural Paramus of the High Andes. This study aims to evaluate rural housing under extreme conditions of climate, topography, accessibility, and basic services, in order to establish strategies that are context-appropriate and promote house improvements through collaborative workshops. The conditions of 40 houses in two indigenous communities were assessed through direct observation and thermography. Site characteristics, spatial distribution, materiality and pathologies, along with perceived thermal comfort, were recorded on an adapted datasheet. The assessment was conducted by a researcher and the homeowner, with the objective of generating a participatory diagnosis. Data was analyzed using a multicriteria matrix proposed within a comprehensive framework for assessing building performance in the context of sociocultural and technical dimensions. The main results reveal that inhabitants uphold traditional aspects like collaborative construction processes, a relationship with the landscape, and efficient space utilization. However, the loss of ancestral construction knowledge and the influence of migration to cities have led to technical building errors; consequently, the majority of the dwellings exhibit structural vulnerability and poor indoor environmental quality.

Climate change and food security in South Asia: the importance of renewable energy and agricultural credit

Weather, trade restrictions, rising oil prices, a lack of financial support for farmers, and other factors have contributed to the destabilization of South Asian food security. The purpose of this study is to determine the long-run and short-run relationships between climate change, agricultural credit, renewable energy, and food security for a sample of South Asian countries between 1990 and 2021. The Dynamic Common Correlated technique is utilized for empirical analysis since it directly addresses the issue of cross-sectional dependency while delivering accurate cointegration findings. The study’s empirical findings show that climate change reduces food availability and increases the incidence of food insecurity in South Asia. In contrast, the use of renewable energy sources has a positive effect on food security in the short-run but not in the long-run, while the availability of credit to farmers has a positive effect on food security. Findings suggest that South Asian countries may reduce climate change’s negative effect on food security by investing in climate services, climate-resilient infrastructure, growing drought-resistant crops, using supplemental reinforced agricultural practices, and improving their weather forecasting capabilities.

Incorporating indigenous knowledge systems-based climate services in anticipatory action in Zimbabwe: an ex-ante assessment

IntroductionThe success of anticipatory action (AA) in climate change related disaster risk reduction depends largely on the ability to accurately predict adverse weather events and to subsequently take appropriate and timely action. The current seasonal climate forecasts obtained through national and global forecasting centers such as the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department (MSD) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been found to have several limitations including limited skill in intra-seasonal variability which is vital in most processes, lack of accessibility, difficult interpretability and applicability to local communities. As a result, calls for the integration of Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS)-based climate services in seasonal climate forecasting to bolster the efficacy and accuracy of forecasts are increasing.MethodologyThe study employed a mixed methods approach combining a survey of 200 household heads, document reviews and key informant interviews with IKS specialists, AA community of practice members and disaster risk reduction specialists.ResultsThis article presents the findings of a study carried out in four semi-arid districts of Zimbabwe (Mbire, Matobo, Binga, and Mudzi) to assess the feasibility of integrating IKS into the drought AA mechanism at national, district, and ward level. We find that 82% of the surveyed households used indigenous knowledge systems for seasonal climate forecasting and extreme weather forecasting combined with scientific forecasts. Respondents demonstrated preference for triangulated forecasting to increase reliability. Both the meteorological approaches to seasonal climate forecasting and the IKS based forecasting had different strengths and weaknesses.DiscussionBased on the found gaps in current seasonal forecasting techniques, local applicability, and limited quantitative analysis in IKS, this study provides a guideline on how scientific and IKS forecasting can be triangulated for leveraging forecasting information in Zimbabwe. The use of IKS may be of utmost relevance to agencies and entities seeking the achievement of drought risk reduction through AA programmes.

Practitioner needs to adapt to Sea-Level Rise: Distilling information from global workshops

Climate-induced sea-level rise threatens the world’s coastal populations, critical infrastructure, and ecosystems. The science of sea-level rise (SLR) has developed to inform understanding of global climate mitigation and adaptation challenges, but there is much less engagement with practitioners to discern their climate services needs and support the development of adaptation planning and action on the ground. In addition, adaptation planning and implementation processes for SLR are relatively new and practitioners developing leading practices are seeking interaction with their peers and the SLR science community. To address these gaps, we co-produced online global workshops with sixty-nine practitioners from twenty-six countries. These workshops aimed to increase understanding of the state of SLR adaptation planning practice worldwide, gather information on practitioners' existing knowledge and service needs to advance their adaptation efforts, and facilitate exchange between practitioners engaged with coastal adaptation and the SLR science community. The workshops uncovered commonalities across contexts and identified consistent needs from scientists and other technical experts amongst the practitioner community. These needs include generating more localized SLR impact data, understanding of compound risk, creating data timelines for decision making, and developing clarity about uncertainties and probabilities. We also observed important differences between urban and rural locations and between places with different economic resources. To meet their needs, practitioners identified three crucial next steps: 1) Develop more online engagement opportunities, 2) Establish a global practitioner community of practice, and 3) Scale and improve the provision of climate services.

How Does Public Service Motivation Affect the Proactive Service Behaviors of Grid Workers? A Study of Survey Evidence from Eastern China.

In China, grid workers have increasingly become an indispensable and important force in basic social governance. They not only undertake several tasks, such as gaining publicity, collecting information, resolving conflicts, and assisting in management, but they also actively serve the grid residents enthusiastically and engage in proactive service behaviors. In order to better cultivate this important force, we hope to have a better understanding of the factors contributing to the behavioral performance of grid workers, especially the impact of organizational and personal factors. In this study, we sought to establish what factors influence the proactive service behaviors of grid workers. Based on a theoretical consideration of factors such as public service motivation, occupational identity, and organizational climate, a multi-factor influence hypothesis model was constructed to explain the proactive service behaviors of these workers. By analyzing data based on 348 paired survey samples received in two stages in eastern China, these hypotheses were then tested. The results reflect that grid workers' public service motivation can stimulate proactive service behaviors. Furthermore, occupational identity plays a mediating role, while organizational support and organizational service climate play a positive moderating role between public service motivation and occupational identity. This finding clarifies the important influencing factors of proactive service behaviors among grassroots workers, such as grid workers, and has important implications for how to effectively motivate these groups to provide more proactive services, promoting their sustainable development and improve the effectiveness of grassroots governance.

The importance of crowdsourced observations for urban climate services

AbstractCrowdsourced observation networks are typically much more dense than those maintained by National Meteorological Services, and sample a much wider range of local climates. This offers an opportunity to build observed climatologies that are more representative of lived experience, particularly in cities. This study provides a worked example to show their potential for improving operational climate services, and to identify the challenges to realizing that potential. To demonstrate the concept, data from personal weather stations, obtained through citizen science, are used to build an observed record of daily maximum temperatures in 2020 in Manchester (UK). This record is compared to the standard baseline used in a current climate service, showing a substantial increase in the estimated heat hazard. If such potential benefits are to be realized in a climate service, it will be necessary to first build an alternative observed baseline of decadal length and at national or international scale. This requires further work to acquire, quality‐control, exposure‐control and map the crowdsourced observations.

Understanding farmers’ awareness of Climate Services: knowledge, practice, and attitude towards weather information in Benin, West Africa

Understanding farmers’ awareness of Climate Services: knowledge, practice, and attitude towards weather information in Benin, West Africa