Climate Risk Assessment Research Articles

Review of national climate change risk assessment methods for impacts on health and health systems in WHO European Region

Abstract Background Climate change poses significant risks to health and health systems. The European Union climate adaptation strategy sets out the pathway to become climate resilient by 2050 and supports the development of adaptation strategies across all levels of governance. Whilst many European countries have published climate change risk assessments (CCRA), it is unclear to what extent health outcomes have been quantified or prioritised. There is a need to improve methods for CCRA methods to support decision making on adaptation and better quantify future impacts on health. The aim of this study is to review the methods used in national CCRAs for impacts on health and health systems in the WHO European region. Methods National and European level CCRAs were identified from national government websites and European document databases e.g. Climate-ADAPT. The most recently published CCRA from each country was included. Data extracted from CCRAs included climate scenarios used, modelling data, outcomes, types of evidence evaluated, stakeholder involvement, health information, methods for prioritization of adaptation options and urgency scoring. Data extracted from each document was grouped by climate risk or outcome. Results Nearly all WHO EURO countries have conducted a formal assessment of climate risks and over half specifically include risks to health. All countries assessed the urgency to adapt to heat and flooding however, less than half consider the health related risks related to disrupted water supply and quality as well as impacts on food supply and security. The key reported health outcomes identified across countries were mortality, infectious disease, chronic diseases and mental health. Conclusions There is varying progress in the quantification and prioritization of health risks from climate change across Europe. To support better public health decision-making, CCRAs should integrate sub-national and local information for targeted adaptation action.

From the first European Climate Risk Assessment to action in policy and practice

Abstract The first European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA), produced by the European Environment Agency in March 2024, engaging nearly 100 authors across Europe, highlights health among the most at-risk sectors. According to the structured risk assessment that was conducted to support the transparent identification of priorities for policy action, more and urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from heat indoors and outdoors; from wildfires and outbreaks of vector- and water-borne diseases. The responsibility for managing risks lies both with the EU and Member States, and the policy readiness varies depending on the risk. The European Climate and Health Observatory, set up to better understand, anticipate and prevent climate risks to human health in Europe, in the most recent report ‘Responding to climate change impacts on human health in Europe: focus on floods, droughts and water quality’ provides in-depth analyses of some climate-related risks to health and presents examples of responses to them in both policy and practice. Both assessments emphasise that without fast and systemic action to increase societal resilience, the health impacts of the changing climate will worsen, affecting already disadvantaged or vulnerable groups the most. Health and health-determining sectors have the opportunity to address the health impacts of climate change by, among others, increasing the climate resilience of health systems; developing, updating and implementing national health adaptation plans; and supporting the education and training of public health and healthcare professionals on climate change threats. At the same time, addressing health impacts from climate extremes requires responses across sectors, actors and spatial scales.

6.F. Scientific session: Understanding the impact of climate change on health: the latest reports from EEA and NPHIs

Abstract Climate change poses a significant threat to human life and wellbeing worldwide. Extreme weather events like heatwaves, storms or floods can have adverse impacts on health, as can many other factors influenced by climate change, such as allergens, UV radiation and vector-borne diseases. In order to support the action needed to protect and promote health and wellbeing, many National Public Health Institutes (NPHIs) aim to keep relevant stakeholders informed on the scientific evidence of the impacts of climate change on health. Reports that synthesise the evidence can help in the development of suitable and health-relevant climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. In this workshop, European Environment Agency assessments on climate and health are presented, including the European Climate Risk Assessment Report and recent outputs of the European Climate and Health Observatory. Next, three NPHIs introduce their recent national reports on the impact of climate change on health, sharing lessons learned and valuable insights into their content, process and reception, highlighting similarities and differences. The workshop will feature presentations by NPHIs from the United Kingdom (UK Health Security Agency), Germany (Robert Koch Institute), and the Netherlands (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) as well as the European Climate and Health Observatory. The perspective of the European Climate and Health Observatory offers Europe-wide insights as a provider of tools and knowledge that support actions from NPHIs and other health actors. Our aim is to highlight the value of such reports, and inform and inspire NPHIs and other stakeholders that may be considering the publication of similar reports. The format of the workshop will be informative and interactive, with opportunity for Q&A, discussion, and engagement with the audience. By showcasing the recent reports, the workshop aims to increase awareness of climate change as a public health issue and establish NPHIs as key climate actors. Furthermore, it aims to highlight the importance of having a national, up-to-date evidence base to drive climate measures and enhance resilience. Key messages • National evidence-based reports on climate change and health are a useful tool for informing health-relevant climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. • Through the public health functions of surveillance, monitoring, responding and evaluating, NPHIs play a crucial role in collating and assessing the evidence on the health effects of climate change.

Distributional justice and climate risk assessment: An analysis of disparities within direct and indirect risk.

Climate change and natural hazard risk assessments often overlook indirect impacts, leading to a limited understanding of the full extent of risk and the disparities in its distribution across populations. This study investigates distributional justice in natural hazard impacts, exploring its critical implications for environmental justice, equity, and resilience in adaptation planning. We employ high-resolution spatial risk assessment and origin-destination routing to analyze coastal flooding and sea-level rise scenarios in Aotearoa New Zealand. This approach allows the assessment of both direct impacts (property exposure) and indirect impacts (physical isolation from key amenities) on residents. Indirect impacts, such as isolation and reduced access to resources, have significant adverse effects on well-being, social cohesion, and community resilience. Including indirect impacts in risk assessments dramatically increases the overall population burden, while revealing complex effects on existing inequalities. Our analysis reveals that including indirect impacts increases the overall population burden, but the effect on inequalities varies. These inequalities can be exacerbated or attenuated depending on scale and location, underscoring the need for decision-makers to identify these nuanced distributions and apply context-specific frameworks when determining equitable outcomes. Our findings uncover a substantial number of previously invisible at-risk residents-from 61,000 to 217,000 nationally in a present-day event-and expose a shift in impact distribution toward underserved communities. As indirect risks exacerbate disparities and impede climate adaptation efforts, adopting an inclusive approach that accounts for both direct and indirect risks and their [un]equal distribution is imperative for effective and equitabledecision-making.

Evaluating UKCP18-Based weather files for overheating assessment using building simulation: A case study for a flat in london

Global warming and net zero transition are the two biggest challenges currently faced by the building industry in the UK. While the net zero transition primarily focuses on the problems of energy efficiency and heat decarbonization, the rise of global temperature imposes a significant threat to the health and wellbeing of occupants and the industry is obliged to make buildings climate-resilient by testing their designs using future weather files. To improve the quality of the current weather files, a new project has been commissioned by CIBSE to revisit the data and the methodology employed for creating future weather files and produce new CIBSE weather files using the latest UK Climate Projections released in 2018 (UKCP18). In this study, we evaluate the newly produced weather files for overheating risk using building simulation. Two different batches of weather files were curated. The first batch was produced primarily using the existing methodology for creating the UKCP09 based weather files, with an adjustment to accommodate new features of the UKCP18 and an improved procedure for morphing the solar radiation data. The second batch was created through an improved morphing process to better emulate the characteristics of distributions of climatic variables. The differences between the existing UKCP09 and new UCKP18 based weather files are compared by evaluating overheating metrics. The new weather files enable robust building performance assessment against future climate conditions under different scenarios and will play an important role in designing climate-resilient buildings and delivering a net zero built environment. Practical applications As the extreme weather events resulting from climate change become more frequent and intense, they pose significant challenges to the resilience of the built environment and severe threats to the health and wellbeing of the occupants. Climate data, which serves as the foundation for climate risk assessment, plays a critical role in helping the building sector to achieve climate resilience through the means of performance assessment and the channel of regulatory compliance. In this study, the revised future weather files created using the latest UKCP18 climate projections are presented and evaluated using building simulation, as part of the weather file testing programme for quality assurance. The revision of the CIBSE weather files according to the latest climate science, i.e. UKCP18, will enable the building industry to quantify overheating risks with more accurate climate assumptions and better inform decision making about risk mitigation and climate adaptation.

Southern Bug River: water security and climate changes perspectives for post-war city of Mykolaiv, Ukraine

This article focuses on water security in Mykolaiv, a city of 0.5 million inhabitants in southern Ukraine, in the situation of scarcity of usable water resources caused by climate change and military operations. This problem arose after the Dnipro-Mykolaiv water pipeline was destroyed in April 2022 as a result of military operations and the supply of drinking water to the city was cut off. To ensure that the city’s population has constant access to sufficient water of acceptable quality, a search for alternative water sources and a climate risk assessment were carried out for the new municipal water supply system from the Southern Bug River. The possible change in flow and its intra-annual distribution under the influence of climate change was modeled using the WaterGAP2 hydrological model and climate projections under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-P8.5 scenarios. It was found that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the reduction in river flow will be insignificant (up to a maximum of 14% in the far future) and there will be no restrictions on the city’s water supply from this section of the river in the near (2021-2050) and far (2051-2080) period. The maximum water withdrawal for municipal water supply and the minimum environmental flow will reach their maximum value only in August (56% of the projected flow), which is not critical. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, in the long-term perspective of 2051-2080, the largest decrease in runoff will occur from May to October, and the water withdrawal will increase to 40-79% of the projected flow. The use of the research results not only in water management, but also in municipal administration, and their dissemination in territorial communities will contribute to the successful adaptation of socio-economic and environmental processes in the region and can bring successful benefits not only to the economy, but also to communities.

Cultivating resilience: Camburi Quilombo’s role in preserving local knowledge amid climate change

PurposeThis paper examines how the Camburi Quilombo community in Ubatuba, Brazil, can be empowered to develop cultural resilience and conserve its Afro-Brazilian heritage in the face of challenges posed by climate change, urbanization and cultural erosion with the adverse consequences of tourism and inadequate infrastructure.Design/methodology/approachEmphasizing traditional knowledge, the project consisted of data collection, climate risk assessments and the development of an action plan in collaboration with academic institutions, governmental bodies and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).FindingsAligned with sustainable development goals (SDGs), the project contributes to zero hunger, quality education, sustainable cities, climate action and life on land. Seed exchange fairs, decentralized seed banks and education initiatives foster environmental awareness and sustainable agriculture, impacting the community directly and over 1,000 individuals indirectly. While demonstrating short-term changes and mid-term viability, the project faced some challenges due to local communication complexities and overlapping jurisdiction.Originality/valueServing as a bridge between scientific research and local knowledge, the project aims to promote a paradigm shifts toward recognizing, respecting and incorporating indigenous practices, so that a more environmentally aware future can be envisioned for these communities amidst climate challenges. Reflecting on achievements, the project underscores integrating diverse cultural knowledge for community resilience.

Climatic variation and risk assessment in a highly seasonal mammal

Abstract Climate change and its resulting effects on seasonality are known to alter a variety of animal behaviors including those related to foraging, phenology, and migration. While many studies focus on the impacts of phenological changes on physiology or fitness enhancing behaviors, fewer have investigated the relationship between variation in weather and phenology on risk assessment. Fleeing from predators is an economic decision that incurs costs and benefits. As environmental conditions change, animals may face additional stressors that affect their decision to flee and influence their ability to effectively assess risk. Flight initiation distance (FID)–the distance at which animals move away from threats–is often used to study risk assessment. FID varies due to both internal and external biotic and physical factors as well as anthropogenic activities. We asked whether variation in weather and phenology is associated with risk-taking in a population of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer). As the air temperature increased marmots tolerated closer approaches, suggesting that they either perceived less risk or that their response to a threat was thermally compromised. The effect of temperature was relatively small and was largely dependent upon having a larger range in the full data set that permitted us to detect it. We found no effects of either the date that snow disappeared or July precipitation on marmot FID. As global temperatures continue to rise, rainfall varies more and drought becomes more common, understanding climate-related changes in how animals assess risk should be used to inform population viability models.

Systematic Mapping of Climate Change Impacts on Human Security in Bangladesh

There is an increasing consensus that climate change undermines human security by exacerbating existing challenges, acting as a “threat multiplier”. Bangladesh is a climate hot spot due to its geographical location, dense population and vulnerable socio-economic infrastructure. Although there is an increasing number of studies on the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh, aggregated research that combines this evidence and provides a comprehensive overview is lacking. The aim of this research is to thoroughly investigate the characteristics of the academic literature on the complex pathways through which climate variability affects different components of human security in Bangladesh, allowing for determination of the trends and research gaps, as well as whether they lead to conflict or cooperation. We used a systematic mapping methodology to search and screen 1839 publications in Web of Science, including 320 publications for the final synthesis. We found a predominant research focus on rural areas, especially in the southwestern region, with declining crop yield, economic loss, migration, water shortage, food scarcity and health hazards being the highlighted impacts of climate change for Bangladesh. The impacts on food, economic, environmental, health and water security have been well studied, but we found significant research gaps in some human security components, especially energy security. Women and the economically disadvantaged are disproportionately affected, and the causal pathways between conflict or cooperation and the ever-changing climate lack research efforts, implying a dire need to focus on under-researched areas before they become more complex and difficult to address. Policies and interventions should prioritise climate-resilient agricultural practices and infrastructure in high-risk areas, building local capacities and integrating climate risk assessments into urban planning, considering the high influx of environmental migrants. This systematic map provides a foundation for future longitudinal studies, establishes a baseline for this era for future comparisons and serves as a reliable database for relevant stakeholders and policy makers.

Towards more sustainable and inclusive development corridors in Africa

Abstract Development corridors are linear programmes of infrastructure and agriculture aiming to facilitate rapid socio-economic development. In Africa, they are a major development activity, with 88 underway or planned corridors. Drawing from extensive literature and insights gleaned from a 4 year research programme, this review scrutinizes the impacts of development corridors on people, wildlife and ecosystems in Kenya and Tanzania, proposing solutions to achieve better outcomes. The overarching goal was to discern the principle challenges emerging from the practical execution of the prevailing corridor model. The holistic approach taken, assessing the development corridors paradigm through an integrated ecological, social, and economic lens, provides novel insights that have not been possible using more traditional—siloed—research approaches. Eight key challenge areas are identified: impact assessments processes; coherence across international, national and local planning; governance; inclusivity; equality; impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services; incorporation of future climate risks; and integrated water resource management. Poorly planned and implemented corridors detrimentally impact livelihoods and ecosystems. They lack a sustainable development vision, detailed social, environmental or climate risk assessments, and develop incrementally in policy and corporate spaces. There is also often a disconnect between investors and recipient governments, with some investors funding what governments request without applying internationally-recognised safeguards, and governments lacking capacity and resources to enforce regulations. We make recommendations for addressing these challenge areas. These aim to enhance impact assessment efficacy; integrate local perspectives into effective and inclusive corridor planning; overcome siloed project development and implementation; anticipate future development projections; and prioritise landscape preservation for enhanced ecosystem services and climate resilience.

Satellite-Based Census of Residential Buildings: Application for Climate Risk Assessment

Satellite-Based Census of Residential Buildings: Application for Climate Risk Assessment

An integrated approach for managing drought risks in the eastern himalayan region of India

Climate Risk Assessment (CRA), when applied through an integrated approach, enables the evaluation of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability within a unified framework, recognizing the interconnections between climate risks and both natural and social systems. This study uses Sikkim, a small state in the Indian Eastern Himalayan Region, as a case study to conduct a climate risk assessment of agricultural drought at the sub-national level. The objective was to identify the district most at risk from agricultural drought and determine the primary contributors to drought risk to support the development of effective adaptation strategies. The findings reveal that while all districts in Sikkim are moderately drought-prone, the main factor contributing to drought risk is the high sensitivity of the agricultural sector to drought and the limited adaptive capacity of farmers. Many marginal and small farmers rely on rainfed irrigation and have poor adaptive capacity, making them highly vulnerable to even moderate drought conditions. The study highlights that while mitigating drought hazards is important, it is a complex and long-term endeavor. Therefore, strengthening farmers' resilience by reducing their sensitivity and enhancing their adaptive capacity is essential for effectively reducing drought risks in Sikkim.

Methodological framework for assessing malaria risk associated with climate change in Côte d'Ivoire.

Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity among children under five years of age and pregnant women in Côte d'Ivoire. We assessed the geographical distribution of its risk in all climatic zones of the country based on the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach to climate risk analysis. This methodology considers three main driving components affecting the risk: Hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Considering the malaria impact chain, various variables were identified for each of the risk factors and for each variable, a measurable indicator was identified. These indicators were then standardized, weighted through a participatory approach based on expert judgement and finally aggregated to calculate current and future risk. With regard to the four climatic zones in the country: Attieen (sub-equatorial regime) in the South, Baouleen (humid tropical) in the centre, Sudanese or equatorial (tropical transition regime) in the North and the mountainous (humid) in the West. Malaria risk among pregnant women and children under 5 was found to be higher in the mountainous and the Baouleen climate, with the hazard highest in the mountainous climate and Exposure very high in the Attieen climate. The most vulnerable districts were those in Baouleen, Attieen and the mountainous climates. By 2050, the IPCC representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios predict an increase in risk in almost all climatic zones, compared to current levels, with the former considering a moderate scenario, with an emissions peak around 2040 followed by a decline and RCP 8.5 giving the highest baseline emissions scenario, in which emissions continue to rise. It is expected that the AR5 approach to climate risk analysis will be increasingly used in climate risk assessment studies so that it can be better assessed at a variety of scales.

Storylines of summer Arctic climate change constrained by Barents–Kara seas and Arctic tropospheric warming for climate risk assessment

Abstract. While climate models broadly agree on the changes expected to occur over the Arctic with global warming on a pan-Arctic scale (i.e. polar amplification, sea ice loss, and increased precipitation), the magnitude and patterns of these changes at regional and local scales remain uncertain. This limits the usability of climate model projections for risk assessments and their impact on human activities or ecosystems (e.g. fires and permafrost thawing). Whereas any single or ensemble mean projection may be of limited use to stakeholders, recent studies have shown the value of the storyline approach in providing a comprehensive and tractable set of climate projections that can be used to evaluate changes in environmental or societal risks associated with global warming. Here, we apply the storyline approach to a large ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with the aim of distilling the wide spread in model predictions into four physically plausible outcomes of Arctic summertime climate change. This is made possible by leveraging strong covariability in the climate system associated with well-known but poorly constrained teleconnections and local processes; specifically, we find that differences in Barents–Kara sea warming and lower-tropospheric warming over polar regions among CMIP6 models explain most of the inter-model variability in pan-Arctic surface summer climate response to global warming. Based on this novel finding, we compare regional disparities in climate change across the four storylines. Our storyline analysis highlights the fact that for a given amount of global warming, certain climate risks can be intensified, while others may be lessened, relative to a “middle-of-the-road” ensemble mean projection. We find this to be particularly relevant when comparing climate change over terrestrial and marine areas of the Arctic which can show substantial differences in their sensitivity to global warming. We conclude by discussing the potential implications of our findings for modelling climate change impacts on ecosystems and human activities.

Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment in Informal Settlements of the Global South: A Critical Review

This study investigated the climatic risks and vulnerabilities of informal settlements in the Global South, as well as the extent to which these risks impact the vulnerabilities. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2009 methodology and deductive content analysis, this study critically examined 69 documents, including 28 scholarly journal articles obtained from Scopus and ScienceDirect and 41 web-based releases identified through the Google search engine and snowballing technique. Document inclusion criteria focused on the relevance to climate risks and vulnerabilities, excluding non-peer-reviewed, non-English, and unreliable sources, as well as irrelevant studies. Seven major climate risks impacting informal settlements were identified: floods (44), temperature changes (41), storms (31), sea level rise (30), drought (28), rainfall (23), and landslides (14). The primary vulnerabilities highlighted were poor housing conditions (64), health risks (50), lack of basic services (49), inadequate sanitation (41), inadequate hygiene (39), and limited access to water (38). The combination of vulnerabilities and climate risks creates considerable direct, indirect, and low-level threats to informal settlements. Despite Asia, Africa, and Latin America’s vulnerability, most studies focused on formal and developed areas. The findings highlight the critical need for climate adaptation strategies in informal settlements of the Global South to ensure the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are met.

Risk assessment of national railway infrastructure due to sea-level rise: an application of a methodological framework in Italian coastal railways

Nowadays, within the built environment, railway infrastructures play a key role to sustain national policies oriented toward promoting sustainable mobility. For this reason, national institutions and infrastructure managers need to increase their awareness in relation to the current and future climate risks on their representative systems. Among climate change impacts, preventing the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal railway infrastructures is a priority. The first step in the climate change adaptation policy cycle is the development of an ad hoc climate risk assessment. In this view, this research develops a vulnerability and a risk assessment metric to identify the hotspots within a national coastal railway due to the SLR impacts. The proposed methodology required different steps to quantify the SLR projections and the vulnerability characteristics of the assets, in terms of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The investigated case study is the coastal railway infrastructure in Italy, thanks to an initial approach of co-design participative processes with the national Infrastructure Manager: Rete Ferroviaria Italiana (RFI). The results of this application, although not included in the paper due to confidential reasons imposed by the infrastructure manager — led to a clear identification of the areas and the coastal railway sections which are exposed to high levels of risks and of the places which require priority actions for urgent adaptation in a view of climate proof infrastructures.

Climate risk assessment of the fisheries in Namibia

In Namibia, fisheries are important for food security and protein provisioning, income generation and trade; but they are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Not only does climate change impact the marine living resources crucial to fisheries; but changes in weather, currents and storminess are affecting the safety and effectiveness of fishing. Here we ask: What are the key risks from climate change to the eight large-scale fishery sectors of Namibia, and for the recreational and small-scale (artisanal) fisheries? For each fishery sector, we assessed three main risk components: (1) climate hazard exposure; (2) fish species sensitivity; and (3) socio-economic vulnerability. In combination, these three risk components are then used to calculate the overall climate risk for each fishery. Climate hazard exposure was assessed as highest for the small-scale, recreational, and rock lobster fisheries. Species sensitivities were highest for the rock lobster and crab fisheries, followed by monkfish trawlers, hake liners and hake trawlers. Socio-economic vulnerability was highest for the small pelagic fishery (linked to the collapse of pilchard). The overall climate risk emerged as greatest for the rock lobster fishery, followed by the (highly marginalised) small-scale artisanal fishery. The key risks by sector emerging from this assessment, informed five stakeholder workshops held across Namibia in 2023, attended by representatives of each sector and aimed at exploring options for climate adaptation. Based on these, we discuss potential adaptation measures that could reduce risk and minimise consequences, in support of improved climate resilience in Namibian fisheries.

Environmental Quality of Life (EQoL) Survey to Assess Climate Risk Perceptions in Urban Underserved Communities

Environmental Quality of Life (EQoL) Survey to Assess Climate Risk Perceptions in Urban Underserved Communities

Opportunities to strengthen Africa’s efforts to track national-level climate adaptation

Tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation requires documentation of countries’ intentions, against which future progress can be measured. The extent to which existing national policy documents provide adequate baselines is unclear. We evaluated the adequacy of African Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) (N = 53) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) (N = 15) against three criteria—coverage, consistency and robustness—mapped to the adaptation cycle. Fifty-three percent of NAPs and 8% of NDCs cover all elements needed for providing sufficient baselines for tracking adaptation progress. Only 40% and 9% of the NAPs and NDCs, respectively, provide consistent links between climate risk assessment, planning, implementation and tracking. No document provided fully robust indicators to operationalize tracking. Notable efforts towards adequacy exist, especially in NAPs. The findings illustrate continental-scale advances and shortcomings for tracking progress, and emphasize opportunities in upcoming NDC revisions and NAP processes to enhance their coverage, consistency and robustness for future adaptation tracking.

Building climate-resilient value chains in arid and semi-arid regions: a VC-ARID approach for rangeland adaptation in Kenya

AbstractClimate change has adversely impacted nature-based value chains in the arid and semi-arid regions. The study investigates the impact of climate change on nature-based value chains in arid and semi-arid environments. With an emphasis on rangeland adaptation in Kenya, the study used the VC-ARID (Value Chains for Arid and Semi-Arid Regions) approach, designed to build climate-resilient value chains in arid and semi-arid regions. The findings reveal that climate change poses significant risks to nature-based value chains, including reduced water availability, increased temperature variability, and changes in precipitation patterns. The study identifies several challenges to value chain development, such as limited access to climate information, financial resources, and supportive policies. It underscores the urgent need to integrate climate resilience into value chain interventions to achieve poverty reduction and food security goals in arid and semi-arid regions. This calls for active collaboration and investment in climate information services, research, and extension services to enhance the adaptive capacity of value chain actors and promote sustainable development in vulnerable regions. Given that climate hazards and changes are context-specific, strategies for improving value chains' sustainability must be customized to the unique ecological and socioeconomic setting in which the nature-based value chain operates. Consequently, to build value chains that are climate resilient, each actor along the chain must assess climate risks and manage the activities that make up the value chain adaptively.