Climate Response Research Articles

Climate response to stratospheric aerosol injection during the Harmattan season in West Africa

Abstract Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), a proposed climate intervention, aims to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface by increasing the reflectivity of the atmosphere, thereby offsetting the warming effect of greenhouse gases. During the Harmattan season (December-February) in West Africa, a natural meteorological phenomenon injects dust and sand particles into the atmosphere, leading to a cooling effect. In this study, we investigate the influence of SAI on West African surface temperature, dust, and other meteorological variables using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) scenario and the Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar Climate Intervention on the Earth system with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (ARISE-SAI) dataset. Our findings indicate that SAI intervention significantly impacts the projected surface temperatures, specific humidity, and wind speed changes during the Harmattan season. Compared to a future without SAI, the intervention shows a significant net cooling effect over most parts of West Africa during the mid-future period (2050-2069). Also, SAI intervention significantly decreases moisture content over southern and northern West Africa in the near-future (2035-2054), mainly due to the net cooling effects over West Africa, when compared to a future without SAI. This feature is enhanced in the mid-future period. The cooling effects of SAI are likely to reduce the air's capacity to hold moisture, leading to lower specific humidity levels relative to a future without SAI. It could also have negative implications, such as increased aridity compared to a future without SAI in the northern and central regions of West Africa. These findings also highlight the potential for SAI to improve air quality in certain areas but also underscore the need for careful consideration of implementation strategies and possible trade-offs. The changes from SAI observed are specific to the ARISE simulation and may differ from other SAI simulations.

Investigating the influence of vertical moisture integrated flux convergence on rainfall recovery in the Sahel region of West Africa

The West African Sahel, situated as a semiarid transition area between the Sahara Desert and the savannah subregion, has garnered considerable research interest in recent years due to its distinctive climate characteristics. Of particular focus in this study are the patterns of moisture flux convergence and summer monsoon rainfall in the Sahel, and their interconnected variability. This study aims to enhance our comprehension of the dynamics governing the variation of the West African Monsoon (WAM) through the Vertical Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence. (VIMFC). This study findings reveal a notable upward trend in rainfall within the Sahel region over the past thirty years, primarily attributed to the climate's response to atmospheric warming. Projections indicate that, with future warming, the frequency of rainy days and the occurrence of rainfall are expected to increase in the Sahel. While the dominant circulation systems exhibit no significant deviations, the lower-level wind patterns play a crucial role in transporting moisture from the Atlantic Ocean to the Sahel. Moreover, strengthening of wind patterns at higher altitudes correlates with wetter conditions in the Sahel in the latter decades.

Tourists’ perceptions of climate change awareness, impact, and response mechanisms in South African national parks

ABSTRACT Climate change threatens tourism through slow onsets and rapid climate-induced events like droughts, rising sea levels, floods, extreme heat, and wildfires, destabilising destinations appeal. This paper examined tourist perceptions of climate change in South African national parks and their responses to these challenges. A quantitative tourist survey (n = 871) was administered in 19 national parks. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics, regression models, ANOVA, t-tests, and correlation analysis, while qualitative data were manually coded to identify themes and categorised by frequency. Over 40% of the tourists surveyed recognised the impact of climate change on the parks, and 50% understood the connection between climate change and reducing its environmental impact through lifestyle changes. However, 20% reported that lack of knowledge hinders their ability to adjust their lifestyles. Tourists showed a willingness to invest in sustainable travel, preferring green accommodations and low-carbon travel. This study highlights the need for park management to focus on conservation, disaster risk management, and engaging tourists through education and awareness of climate change and its impact on ecosystems and tourism.

AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization

Abstract. While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO2-fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO2-fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO2-fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO2-only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

Accounting for transience in the baseline climate state changes the surface climate response attributed to stratospheric aerosol injection

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a proposed means of climate intervention that could halt global temperature rise, though it would imperfectly offset climate change. To estimate this imperfection, it is common to compare the simulated climate under SAI against that of a baseline state at the same global mean temperature without SAI. Here, we combine a recent set of SAI simulations (ARISE-SAI-1.5) in the earth system model UKESM1, with simulations of idealized abrupt and transient warming scenarios, to assess the impact of transient warming through this baseline state on surface climate changes attributed to SAI. We quantify the effect of temperature stabilisation as the expected change in surface climate between a climate state under warming and one in quasi-equilibrium at the same global mean temperature. We estimate that accounting for temperature stabilisation eliminates the land-sea warming ratio change attributed to SAI. However, relative to the hypothetical scenario with lower CO2 concentrations that would achieve a stabilised climate at the same temperature, SAI produces a 69% larger reduction in global precipitation. Accounting for stabilisation can also meaningfully change the spatial pattern of surface temperature response attributable to SAI. We repeat our analysis for the GeoMIP G6sulfur scenario, to show that effects qualitatively consistent with these findings are seen when comparing the SAI state against the faster and slower warming baselines of the SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios. The changes in climate state attributable to temperature stabilisation are generally small compared to changes due to warming since pre-industrial. However, these differences can be significant in the context of assessing residual changes under SAI because these residuals are themselves roughly an order of magnitude smaller than the effects of warming. Our findings have implications for the design and assessment of future SAI simulations, and for the attribution of changes in surface climate to SAI.

Assessing the Spurious Impacts of Ice-Constraining Methods on the Climate Response to Sea Ice Loss Using an Idealized Aquaplanet GCM

Abstract Coupled climate model simulations designed to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss often apply artificial heating, either directly to the ice or through modification of the surface albedo, to constrain sea ice in the absence of other forcings. Recent work has shown that this approach may lead to an overestimation of the climate response to sea ice loss. In this study, we assess the spurious impacts of ice-constraining methods on the climate of an idealized aquaplanet general circulation model (GCM) with thermodynamic sea ice. The true effect of sea ice loss in this model is isolated by inducing ice loss through reduction of the freezing point of water, which does not require additional energy input. We compare the results of freezing point modification experiments with experiments where sea ice loss is induced using traditional ice-constraining methods and confirm the result of previous work that traditional methods induce spurious additional warming. Furthermore, additional warming leads to an overestimation of the circulation response to sea ice loss, which involves a weakening of the zonal wind and storm-track activity in midlatitudes. Our results suggest that coupled model simulations with constrained sea ice should be treated with caution, especially in boreal summer, where the true effect of sea ice loss is weakest, but we find the largest spurious response. Given that our results may be sensitive to the simplicity of the model we use, we suggest that devising methods to quantify the spurious effects of ice-constraining methods in more sophisticated models should be an urgent priority for future work. Significance Statement The potential effects of Arctic sea ice loss on midlatitude weather have been investigated using climate models where sea ice loss is artificially induced, without increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Recently, this approach has been challenged because the artificial heating used to melt sea ice may also have direct effects on climate, which are not caused by sea ice loss. We run simulations with a simplified climate model that allows us to separate the “spurious” direct effects of the artificial heating from the “true” effect of sea ice loss. In our simulations, the responses of temperature and atmospheric circulation are amplified by spurious effects. Consequently, we argue that previous studies using more complex climate models may overestimate the effect of sea ice loss on climate.

Climate warming drives population trajectories of freshwater fish

Climate change has emerged as a key threat to biodiversity, leading to broad-scale shifts in distributions of marine and terrestrial species as they attempt to track thermally suitable habitat. By contrast, our understanding of climate responses of freshwater species is relatively undeveloped, limiting our knowledge of whether projected warming will lead to freshwater biodiversity loss. Here, we linked a multicontinental database of riverine fish population abundance time series collected from 1958 to 2019 to temperature data from the same period. Across the sampled localities, waters warmed by 0.21 °C per decade (annual maximum of monthly temperatures). We tested whether fish responded to this change by i) increasing abundance at the cooler poleward limit of species distributions-predicted if warming has opened new opportunities-and ii) decreasing abundance toward the equatorward limit of distributions-predicted if temperatures have exceeded tolerance thresholds. We found that observed population trends were consistent with both of these expected patterns from climatic warming and that the trends were more pronounced in time series covering the longer time periods of 30+ y. The responses consistent with climate change were most evident in species with larger body sizes, higher trophic levels, river-sea migratory behavior, and more widespread distributions. Moreover, positive abundance responses to warming were more likely at higher altitudes where conditions tend to be cooler. These findings indicate that projected future warming will likely lead to widespread shifts in riverine community structure, including abundance declines at the trailing edge of species distributions.

Sea ice perturbations in aquaplanet simulations: isolating the physical climate responses from model interventions

Abstract Comprehensive climate model simulations with perturbed sea ice covers have been extensively used to assess the impact of future sea ice loss, suggesting substantial climate changes both in the high latitudes and beyond. However, previous work using an idealized energy balance model calls into question the methods that are used to perturb sea ice cover, demonstrating a consistent overestimate of the surface warming due to sea ice loss, while the large complexity gap between the idealized and comprehensive models makes the implications of this result unclear. To bridge this gap we have performed simulations with a new implementation of the CESM2 model in a slab-ocean aquaplanet configuration coupled with thermodynamic sea ice, which is able to capture the realistic seasonal characteristics of polar climate change. Using this model setup, we perform a suite of experiments to systematically quantify the spurious climate responses associated with melting sea ice without a CO2 forcing. We find that using the sea ice ghost flux method overestimates many aspects of the climate response by ~10-20%, including the polar warming, the mini global warming signal and the increase in both precipitation and evaporation. The location of the latitudinal band of heating applied to melt the sea ice relative to the midlatitude jet is important for determining where the midlatitude circulation response is overestimated. This work advances our ability to isolate the true climate response to sea ice loss, and provides a framework for conducting coupled sea ice loss simulations absent the spurious impacts from the addition of artificial heating.

Effect of resolution on simulated teleconnections to winter North Atlantic circulation inferred from a causal network derived from expert elicitation

When designing a set of climate projections for a given amount of supercomputing, the choice of resolution affects the ensemble size that can be afforded. The larger sample size helps to quantify uncertainties more robustly and provide better statistics to understand the projections. The trade-off is that the use of coarser resolution risks some compromise on quality in representing processes that could play a crucial role in the climate response. But what exactly is the added value of the enhanced resolution? We use two tools, which are applicable to a broader set of applications, to assess this for processes (teleconnections) that drive the year-to-year variability of late winter circulation over the North Atlantic. First, a causal network, which captures the teleconnections that relate key drivers of variability to late winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is elicited from experts in seasonal forecasting. Causal Inference theory is then used to estimate the teleconnection strengths. Second, we use two parallel perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs) of coupled control simulations based on HadGEM3-GC3 at low and medium atmosphere/ocean resolutions. Combining the two tools allows us to identify teleconnections which have strengths (a) controlled by parameters, and (b) that are altered in a systematic way across parameter space by the enhanced resolution. Overall, the medium resolution is marginally better than the lower resolution, notably in the way El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the Indian Ocean Dipole. For many of the teleconnections, most model configurations have weaker relationships than observed. Several teleconnections are shown to have modest parametric effects that produce correlated changes across the two PPEs. However, the ensemble size would need to be increased to better identify the key parameters and processes.

The Response of the Annual Rotation Width of Tea Trees to Climate Change in the Brown Mountains of Yunnan Province

Yunnan is located in the southwestern part of China, with rich tea tree germplasm resources and diversified geomorphological and climatic features, which help us to carry out research related to tea tree chronology and provide scientific and effective support information for enriching the database of tree rings in western Yunnan. This study took the Brown Mountain tea tree in Xishuangbanna as the research object, collected tea tree sample cores through tree growth cone sampling, measured the width of the annual rings, cross-dated them, and established a chronology of the width of the annual rings of the tea tree. The R language was used to analyze the response function of the tea tree’s annual ring chronology with the climatic factors of the study site, discussed the relationship between the radial growth of the tea tree in subtropical regions and climatic factors, and determined the main factors that affected the radial growth of the tea tree. The results of the study showed that the chronology of the tea tree’s whorl width spanned 70 years (1954–2023), with an average annual growth rate of 1.283 mm/year; the average sensitivity was 0.514, which indicated that the chronology contained richer climatic information. The representativeness of the sample group of the whorl width index (EPS) was 0.716, indicating that the consistency of the growth inter-annual variations was better among the different trees. The radial growth was correlated with climatic factors such as temperature and moisture; the radial growth of the tea tree was usually more sensitive to moisture availability, limited by hydrological and climatic factors throughout the rainy season of the year, and positively correlated with the temperature in summer and autumn. In terms of the stability of the radial growth of the tea tree in relation to the climatic response, the growth of the tea tree in the study area may have benefited from future warming of the climate and reduction in precipitation.

Assessing GFDL‐ESM4.1 Climate Responses to a Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Strategy Intended to Avoid Overshoot 2.0°C Warming

AbstractIn this work, we apply the GFDL Earth System Model (GFDL‐ESM4.1) to explore the climate responses to a stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) scenario that aims to restrict global warming to 2.0°C above pre‐industrial levels (1850–1900) under the CMIP6 overshoot scenario (SSP5‐34‐OS). Simulations of this SAI scenario with the CESM Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM2‐WACCM6) showed nearly unchanged interhemispheric and pole‐to‐Equator surface temperature gradients relative to present‐day conditions around 2020, and reduced global impacts, such as heatwaves, sea ice melting, and shifting precipitation patterns (Tilmes et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd‐11‐579‐2020). However, model structural uncertainties can lead to varying climate projections under the same forcing. Implementing identical stratospheric aerosol radiative properties in GFDL‐ESM4.1, which has a much lower Effective Climate Sensitivity compared to CESM2‐WACCM6, resulted in a decrease in global‐mean surface temperature by more than 1.5°C and a corresponding reduction in precipitation responses. Two major reasons contribute to the different temperature response between the two models: first, GFDL‐ESM4.1 has less warming in the SSP534‐OS scenario; second, GFDL‐ESM4.1 has shown more pronounced cooling in response to the same stratospheric AOD perturbation. Notably, the Southern Hemisphere experiences substantial cooling compared to the Northern Hemisphere, accompanied by a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Furthermore, our analysis reveals that spatially heterogeneous forcing within the SAI scenario results in diverse climate feedback parameters in the GFDL‐ESM4.1 model, through varying surface warming/cooling patterns. This research highlights the importance of considering model structural uncertainties and forcing spatial patterns for a comprehensive evaluation of future scenarios and geoengineering strategies.

Comparing the Atmospheric Responses to Reduced Arctic Sea Ice, a Warmer Ocean, and Increased CO2 and Their Contributions to Projected Change at 2°C Global Warming

Abstract We consider the combined and individual influences of Arctic sea ice loss, sea surface temperature (SST) warming, and the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 on the Northern Hemispheric climate. The surface climate (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and atmospheric circulation responses (e.g., sea level pressure and wind) to these drivers are quantified using simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (for sea ice loss and SST warming) and the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (for increased CO2). We verify the linear additivity of the PAMIP-derived winter responses to sea ice loss and SST change. The responses to SST change are of greater magnitude than that due to sea ice loss or due to CO2 direct radiative forcing in most seasons and regions, excluding the Arctic. Notably, however, sea ice loss is at least as important as SST change for the winter atmospheric circulation response over the North Atlantic and Siberia. The dynamical responses to sea ice loss and SST change oppose each other in many regions in winter, while the responses to SST and CO2 direct radiative forcing are often opposing in summer. Such opposing responses are less evident for the thermodynamical response. The sum of all three responses reproduces well the spatial patterns of change at 2°C global warming in winter and autumn in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project projections but overestimates their magnitude.

Assessing the impact of multi-source environmental variables on soil organic carbon in different land use types of China using an interpretable high-precision machine learning method

To explore the impact of environmental factors on soil organic carbon (SOC) with machine learning (ML) model is of great significance for mitigating climate change and soil carbon sequestration and emission reduction. However, the traditional ML model is limited by the hyperparameter adjustment of artificially trial-and-error experimentation and the inexplicability of fitting process, and the precision and performance of ML model cannot be fully utilized. For the end, this study developed a tree-structured Parzen estimator-extreme gradient boosting (TPE-XGBoost) method based on SHapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis to analyze the response of climate, human activities, soil properties and terrain for SOC (0-200cm) in different land use types of China. The results of descriptive statistics described the order of SOC content: forest land > grassland > cultivated land > unused land. With the increase of soil depth, the SOC content of all land types decreased continuously, and the values indicate a left-skewed non-normal distribution. The fitting accuracy (R2) of TPE-XGBoost model for SOC content was greater than 0.8. At the depth of 0-5cm, the prediction accuracy of cultivated land (R2 = 0.96), grassland (R2 = 0.93), forest land (R2 = 0.95) and unused land (R2 = 0.95) was the highest. The result of SHAP analysis showed that the factors that contributed the most to the fitting accuracy of cultivated land, grassland, forest land and unused land in all depths were temperature, soil pH, temperature and elevation. From surface to deep soil, the mean SHAP value showed a downward trend, indicating that the driving force of environmental factors on the content of SOC gradually weakened. The individual explanations of the variance partitioning (VP) analysis of climate, terrain, and soil property for cultivated land (0-200cm), forest land (30-60cm), and unused land (0-200cm) was as high as 0.32, 0.17, and 0.16, respectively, which indicated that these environmental factors had a high response to SOC content. It is found that the appropriate temperature not only promotes plant roots to obtain nutrients, but also interacts with soil pH on microorganisms, thereby increasing the SOC content. The results confirm that the TPE-XGBoost model based on SHAP analysis can reliably explain the nonlinear driving effect of environmental factors on the SOC, which provides credible decision support for accounting carbon budget and carbon sequestration in large-scale regions.

Supporting justice in Local Government: Climate Response in Aotearoa New Zealand

While climate justice concerns are increasingly incorporated into policy at international scales, there is less research on climate justice and policy at local scales. Recognising how structural inequalities intersect with climate change influences how rights, responsibilities, distribution of resources and procedures for adaptation are understood and implemented. We describe how some local governments in Aotearoa New Zealand are using recognition practices to improve their understanding of the impacts of climate change, and re-allocating resourcing so mana whenua and communities are better able to participate in climate adaptation procedures. We suggest national policy and legislative changes that could support local governments’ climate justice recognition practices.

Dendrochronological analyses of tree growth and climate response across an urban-rural gradient, Louisville, Kentucky

Dendrochronological analyses of tree growth and climate response across an urban-rural gradient, Louisville, Kentucky

Revisiting climate impacts of an AMOC slowdown: dependence on freshwater locations in the North Atlantic.

The key locations of freshwater input driving Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown and their climate responses remain inconclusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model, we conduct freshwater hosing experiments to reexamine AMOC sensitivity and its climate impacts. The Irminger basin emerges as the most effective region for additional freshwater fluxes, causing the greatest AMOC weakening. While global temperature and precipitation responses are relatively homogeneous, subcontinental responses-especially in the northern mid-latitudes-are heterogeneous. At high latitudes, sea ice responses to freshwater fluxes and associated ice-albedo feedbacks determine temperature changes. In tropical and extratropical regions, temperature dynamics are shaped by atmospheric circulation and oceanic heat transport. Precipitation shows seasonal and regional variability due to altered surface turbulent heat flux and the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The widespread heterogeneity in climate extremes underscores the need to monitor freshwater release regions linked to AMOC slowdown. These findings hold vital implications for understanding paleoclimate and future AMOC impacts.

Climate response to interhemispheric differences in radiative forcing governed by shortwave cloud feedbacks

Abstract Understanding the climate response to interhemispheric differences in imposed radiative forcing is crucial for solar radiative modification (SRM) investigations. While previous studies have shown that climate sensitivity to solar insolation changes imposed in the Northern (NH) versus the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is different, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. In this study, we investigate the climate response to three different radiative forcing scenarios: globally uniform radiative forcing, radiative forcing imposed only in the NH, and radiative forcing confined only to the SH. We find that the climate sensitivity is larger when forcing is imposed only in the SH. To explain the mechanisms for this, we estimate climate feedbacks using the radiative kernel approach. We find that albedo and Planck feedbacks are insensitive to hemisphere of forcing, and the larger climate sensitivity to the southern hemispheric radiative forcing is primarily due to differences in shortwave cloud feedbacks. Additionally, we examine impacts of interhemispheric differences in radiative forcing on tropical circulation, planetary albedo, and land/sea warming contrast. Our results clearly demonstrate how the intertropical convergence zone moves into the hemisphere where the radiative forcing is larger without maintaining a symmetric planetary albedo. Overall, our study provides insights into climate system responses to interhemispheric differences in radiative forcing caused by forcing agents such as aerosols from volcanic eruptions and human activities, and land cover changes, in addition to solar geoengineering.

Climate-informed clustering based nonstationary regional extreme flood events spatio-temporal evolution using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

Study regionXiangjiang River basin, is at the middle and lower Yangtze River. Study focusIncreasing evidence shows that large-scale climate indices are being linked to the spatio-temporal evolution of extreme flood events in many regions. It is widely recognized that identifying the response of flood risks to climate factors is investigated by nonstationary local hydrological frequency analysis (NLFFA). However, high uncertainty by utilizing NLFFA usually cannot achieve the accuracy for engineering design, creating need for nonstationary regional flood frequency analysis (NRFFA) for reducing uncertainty. This study presents a NRFFA for extreme flood risk under changing environment that is conditioned on the large-scale climate index. The nonstationary regional analysis is developed in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to support partial and full pooling, which can enhance climate-based regionalization skill as well as retain site-specific characteristics. Simultaneously, the modeling structure is designed to consider the spatial dependence across the basin. New hydrological insights for the regionRegional models for whole basin and climatically homogeneous sub-region respectively, and local models are compared: the regional models exhibit a great benefit with the estimates uncertainty reduction and allows a better quantification of large-scale climate effect on flood extremes. Moreover, the regional partial pooling model for homogeneous sub-region indicate that the regional model can be further improved by considering a prior pooling stations formed by similar significant climate response.

Pervasive fire danger continued under a negative emission scenario

Enhanced fire-prone weather under greenhouse gas warming can significantly affect local and global carbon budgets from increased fire occurrence, influencing carbon-climate feedbacks. However, the extent to which changes in fire-prone weather and associated carbon emissions can be mitigated by negative emissions remains uncertain. Here, we analyze fire weather responses in CO2 removal climate model experiments and estimate their potential carbon emissions based on an observational relationship between fire weather and fire-induced CO2 emissions. The results highlight that enhanced fire danger under global warming cannot be restored instantaneously by CO2 reduction, mainly due to atmospheric dryness maintained by climatic inertia. The exacerbated fire danger is projected to contribute to extra CO2 emissions in 68% of global regions due to the hysteresis of climate responses to CO2 levels. These findings highlight that even under global cooling from negative emissions, increased fire activity may reinforce the fire-carbon-climate feedback loop and result in further socio-economic damage.

Climate Response and Radial Growth Dynamics of Pedunculate Oak (Quercus robur L.) Plus Trees and Their Half-Sib Progeny in Periods of Severe Droughts in the Forest-Steppe Zone of Eastern Europe.

The dendrochronological parameters of 97 pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) trees including 20 plus trees (142-year-old on average) and four half-sib families for four of them were analyzed considering also specifically years of the most severe droughts that were identified using average monthly air temperature and precipitation data. The tree-ring width (TRW) was mostly affected by air temperature that had the largest cross-dating indices (CDI), up to 78% maximum. However, the 32-year Brückner-Egeson-Lockyer cycle (a climatic cycle of approximately 30-40 years that correlates with sunspot activity) was more reflected in the TRW dynamics in plus trees than precipitation and air temperature. A high-frequency of abnormal TRW was clearly observed during drought periods and in the following 2-3 years. Tree radial-growth reduction due to drought stress varied significantly between families. The resistance to drought based on TRW was higher in the maternal plus oak trees than in progeny. Drought resulted in reduced growth during the subsequent year(s); hence, the minimum growth occurred after the actual climate event. Autumn-winter precipitation and weather conditions were of the greatest importance at the onset of active vegetation in April and May. The influence of air temperature on oak growth was the largest in March (r = 0.39, p < 0.05). The strongest positive correlation between precipitation and growth (with r up to 0.38) was observed in May 2023. Plus trees had a high adaptive potential due to the stability of radial growth during drought with high resistance (Rt = 1.29) and resilience (Rs = 1.09) indexes. The offspring of families 1 (Rt = 0.89, Rs = 0.89) and 2 (Rt = 1.04, Rs = 0.87) had similar resistance and resilience, but the recovery indices (Rc) for offspring in families 1, 2 and 3 exceeded the recovery values for plus trees. For offspring in families 3 and 4, the index values were lower. The revealed responses of wood growth of plus trees to climatic parameters estimated as resistance (Rt), resilience (Rs) and recovery (Rc) indexes and similar responses in their progeny can be used in breeding pedunculate oak for wood growth productivity and drought resistance.