Climate-resilient Development Research Articles

Lessons from a decade of adaptive pathways studies for climate adaptation

Adaptive pathways planning is an approach that maps the solution space over time to inform decision making under uncertainty. Since its first applications to climate change adaptation in the ’10s several studies and practical applications have used and extended the approach and discussed its benefits, limits, and complexity. What have we learned from a decade of adaptive pathways studies? This paper elaborates lessons learned on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches for decision making using a set of guiding questions related to the decision context, the methods used, and contributions to decision making. Based on our experience and literature review, we find that: a) adaptive pathways analyses have been applied widely and are moving from theory to practice; b) an adaptive pathways analysis can be tailored and typically follows a staged approach; c) methods include narratives, impact models, and stakeholder participation tools; d) the complexity of adaptive pathways as a result of multiple actors, values, hazards, and actions at various scales for different purposes is a challenge, and this is increasingly considered through various extensions and combinations with other approaches. Ways forward to address weaknesses and current challenges include: accounting for coevolution between multiple actors across different scales (e.g., through interactive and multilevel pathways) and combining an adaptive pathways analysis with visioning and backcasting approaches for transformative adaptation and operationalizing climate resilient development pathways. To enable further applications in practice, it is important that experiences are shared and governance issues (e.g. long-term planning and funding) addressed.

Integrating climate action into the Australian Volunteers Program

ABSTRACT Climate resilient development is increasingly used as the catchcry of donors and development partners globally as a response to the risks climate change poses to sustainable development. Some development organisations are progressing climate resilient development by integrating climate risks within their strategies and practices, recognising the interlinkages between climate change, poverty, injustice, and inequality. However, many development organisations that do not hold climate change as a core programming focus are yet to take steps towards climate resilient development. While language about “climate risk integration” and “climate-proofing” is commonly used in the development sector, practical first steps on how to enact such approaches remain elusive. This paper describes how a development program without a core focus on climate change has taken initial but important steps towards climate resilient development. Lessons from the Australian Volunteers Program’s efforts in climate risk integration may help to inform and support other organisations in similar positions.

Environmental governance in Pakistan: Perspectives and implications for the China-Pakistan economic corridor plan

Environmental governance (EG), climate-resilient development, and environmental sustainability are interlinked phenomena. It is in this context that an evaluation of Pakistan's EG was carried out in order to establish policy insights into the environmental sustainability of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Plan 2017–2030. A questionnaire survey approach (targeting various stakeholder groups), using a multi-criteria decision analysis of ‘Best’ and ‘Worst’ method and an integrated EG framework were used. An important finding is that responsiveness was ranked as best and equity as worst EG themes for CPEC sustainability. Similarly, criteria transparency is considered to be the best aspect and criteria access to information/knowledge the worst. Other aspects scoring highly included e.g. monitoring and evaluation; stakeholder's communication and collaboration in governance processes; mechanisms to ensure that means and rationales of decisions making are transparent for eco-friendly development under the CPEC Plan; stakeholders' input integration in planning and policy implementation; stakeholders capacity building to deal with environmental and CC concerns of CPEC development. Criteria scoring poorly included e.g., effective mechanisms to resolve conflicts between federal and provincial Environmental Protection Agencies and implementation of environmental laws in letter and spirit, as well as marginalized stakeholders' participation in the decision-making process. In this context, the Government needs to establish an effective EG system to ensure environmentally friendly and climate-resilient development (CRD) in the country.

Climate resilience of European wine regions

Over centuries, European vintners have developed a profound knowledge about grapes, environment, and techniques that yield the most distinguishable wines. In many regions, this knowledge is reflected in the system of wine geographical indications (GI), but climate change is challenging this historical union. Here, we present a climate change vulnerability assessment of 1085 wine GIs across Europe and propose climate-resilient development pathways using an ensemble of biophysical and socioeconomic indicators. Results indicate that wine regions in Southern Europe are among the most vulnerable, with high levels also found in Eastern Europe. Vulnerability is influenced by the rigidity of the GI system, which restricts grape variety diversity and thus contributes to an increased sensitivity to climate change. Contextual deficiencies, such as limited socioeconomic resources, may further contribute to increased vulnerability. Building a climate-resilient wine sector will require rethinking the GI system by allowing innovation to compensate for the negative effects of climate change.

GIS-based spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends under climate change in different agro-ecological zones of Wolaita zone, south Ethiopia

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of climatic conditions within a region is paramount for informed rural planning and decision-making processes, particularly in light of the prevailing challenges posed by climate change and variability. This study undertook an assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall trends across various agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within Wolaita, utilizing data collected from ten strategically positioned rain gauge stations. The detection of trends and their magnitudes was facilitated through the application of the Mann–Kendall (MKs) test in conjunction with Sen's slope estimator. Spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall were further analyzed utilizing ArcGIS10.8 environment and XLSTAT with R programming tools. The outcomes derived from ordinary kriging analyses unveiled notable disparities in the coefficient of variability (CV) for mean annual rainfall across distinct AEZs. Specifically, observations indicated that lowland regions exhibit relatively warmer climates and lower precipitation levels compared to their highland counterparts. Within the lowland AEZs, the majority of stations showcased statistically non-significant positive trends (p > 0.05) in annual rainfall, whereas approximately two-thirds of midland AEZ stations depicted statistically non-significant negative trends. Conversely, over half of the stations situated within highland AEZs displayed statistically non-significant positive trends in annual rainfall. During the rainy season, highland AEZs experienced higher precipitation levels, while the south-central midland areas received a moderate amount of rainfall. In contrast, the northeast and southeast lowland AEZs consistently received diminished rainfall across all seasons compared to other regions. This study underscores the necessity for the climate resilient development and implementation of spatiotemporally informed interventions through implementing region-specific adaptation strategies, such as water conservation measures and crop diversification, to mitigate the potential impact of changing rainfall patterns on agricultural productivity in Wolaita.

Making the Ethiopian Banking System Ready for Green Growth and Development

ABSTRACT After two decades of high economic growth and fast development progress, Ethiopia is facing significant macroeconomic challenges such as high inflation, foreign exchange shortage, and slowing growth. At the same time, it is imperative to bring the economy on a green and climate-resilient development path. In this context, the financial sector has an essential role to play. International financial institutions recommend reducing the fiscal deficit to dampen money growth and inflation and giving up exchange rate control. Based on an alternative analysis of inflation, this article argues that money supply restrictions and fiscal austerity may not only prove ineffective in addressing inflation while incurring high economic costs, but also impede a response that comes via productive and green investment to ease the economy’s supply-side constraints and to lower inflation. Rather than fixating on the quantity of money and market exchange rates, central banking should focus on the direction of financial flows to make sure they go into real green investment rather than speculative and inflation-driving investment. This policy blueprint will also reduce balance-of-payments problems and improve both internal and external monetary stability.

Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change: Urban System

The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6) assesses literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic, and social aspects of mitigation of climate change. The IPCC-AR6 integrates factors of developments in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process. It includes the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, and the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper reviews the urban system and its pathways in transition to the net zero emissions. The key messages of urban mitigation in the IPCC-AR6 are presented. It is found that the urban green and blue infrastructure can contribute to climate resilience through carbon sequestration, emissions reduction, and energy and material efficiency. It also contributes multiple co-benefits. To achieve urban transformational changes, it requires climate finance and engagement of multiple scales of governance. This includes governments and non-state actors. A knowledge gap to achieve net-zero-emissions cities is highlighted, and a case study of climate resilient development in Thailand’s building sectors towards a low carbon society is discussed.

Migration Along Bengaluru’s Rural–Urban Continuum: Implications for Household Well-being and Climate Change Adaptation

The academic literature on internal migration in India has been limited to studies which either capture the well-being of migrants at home or destination. With rural–urban (R–U) boundaries blurring and peri-urban areas gaining economic importance, it is imperative to move away from such binaries towards a continuum approach. Using mixed methods, this paper examines the differentiated nature of migration—its drivers and outcomes—across a R–U continuum in Karnataka. Combining household surveys with focus group discussions and life history interviews, across Bengaluru, its periphery and two predominantly rural districts, which are a source of in-migration, we document the variegated nature of migration. We show that while migrants into Bengaluru enter mostly unskilled livelihoods, peri-urban migrants tend to work in the formal sector. We also show how migration decisions are shaped by climate variability, environmental change, and social and class identity; and these factors mediate differentiated outcomes of moving on household well-being. Our findings have implications for interventions aimed at strengthening household capacities to deal with climatic and non-climatic risks and regional climate-resilient development. We also highlight that enabling inclusive, climate-resilient migration requires comprehensive interventions targeting material and subjective well-being of migrating households and individuals.

The dual approach to climate change adaptation in official development assistance

ABSTRACT A dual approach is an effective method for formulating climate change adaptation measures. It combines both a top-down approach, whereby plans are formulated based on climate change projections, and a bottom-up approach, in which plans are formulated based on the situation in the target region. I analyse Japan’s advanced measures and a development case in Timor-Leste, where some level of adaptation effectiveness is expected. In Timor-Leste, the inadequacy of scientific data makes the top-down approach difficult, but the bottom-up approach based on thorough field surveys can promote climate-resilient development which can be expected to have high adaptation effects in such circumstances. To achieve this, it is necessary to complement scientific data with available data, further strengthen the current system in which each actor thinks independently and works and collaborates with others, and train facilitators who can understand scientific data.

Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region

The limited success of international efforts to reduce global warming at levels established in the Paris Agreement, and the increasing frequency and strength of climate impacts, highlight the urgent need of adaptation, particularly in developing countries. Unfortunately, current levels of adaptation initiatives are not enough to counteract the observed impacts and projected risks from climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In this paper, we review and highlight relevant issues that have limited the capacity to transform climate knowledge and parties’ ambitions into action in the region. Current vulnerabilities and climatic impact-drivers in LAC are diverse, complex, and region-specific and their effects are expected to be exacerbated by climate change. However, the advancement of regional and domestic climate agendas has been hindered by scientific gaps, political support, institutional capacity, and financial, technical, human, and economic limitations that are common to many LAC countries. Transforming climate data into multidimensional metrics with useful thresholds for different sectors and understanding their contribution for feasible adaptation strategies are delayed by regional and local conundrums such as lack of inclusive governance, data availability, equity, justice, and transboundary issues. We discuss ways to move forward to develop local and regional climate resilient development actions and a more sustainable future in LAC. The climate science community in LAC needs to strengthen its local, national, and international connections and with decision/policymakers and society to establish a three-way engagement by proposing suitable adaptation actions and international negotiations to reduce the risks and vulnerability associated with climate extremes, climate variability and climate change in the region. The discussions and insights presented in this work could be extrapolated to other countries in the Global South.

Unlocking climate finance for social protection: an analysis of the Green Climate Fund

ABSTRACT Social protection has gained increasing attention in global climate policy due to its potential to contribute to low-carbon, just and climate-resilient development. Unlocking climate finance for social protection is critical to realize this potential. Multilateral climate funds established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can play a particularly important role by financing social sectors where private investments are not attractive. Yet, there is a distinct policy and research gap in understanding the potential and limitations of the UNFCCC financial mechanisms to support social protection in low- and middle-income countries. Taking as a case study the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which is the largest multilateral fund under the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC, we seek to address this gap. First, the study introduces a framework for analysis of the ways climate finance engages with social protection by looking into a comprehensive set of formal social services and transfers provided by the state to individuals, households, and on a collective basis. Second, the study identifies a continuum of entry points for integrating social protection into the GCF’s project portfolio and offers a holistic perspective by capturing climate change mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage. We find that social protection can be instrumental in the design and implementation of GCF projects. In addition, our analysis reveals that the GCF has the potential to support projects that create enabling conditions for integrating climate change considerations into national social protection systems, and that aim at piloting or establishing long-term social protection mechanisms with climate change objectives.

Bangladesh's pathways to climate-resilient development: A methodical review

Climate resilient development pathways (CRDP) are procedures that reinforce sustainable development and reduce poverty and inequalities while meeting adaptation and mitigation targets. The study systematically assessed Bangladesh's efforts to combat climate change and evaluated its progress toward CRDP with a degree of confidence approach. It also assessed climate change vulnerability, national climate change plans and policies, climate finance conditions, and environmental sustainability. The study revealed that the recent climate change plans and strategies have transformative, social inclusiveness, gender responsiveness, climate resilience, institutional flexibility and coordination, and target setting and monitoring attributes from a moderate to large extent. However, to implement its recently developed climate plans like the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan, Delta Plan, NAP, and NDC, where funding is essential—the nation needs USD 533.7 billion. The study suggests that though the country has implemented several plans and strategies in recent decades, uneven progress has appeared in some important socio-economic and environmental indicators as well as SDGs which signifies low return against investment. It can be concluded that ensuring maximum socio-economic and environmental return on investment, long-term climate finance, strengthening local govt. organizations, adopting region specific and holistic approaches with private sector engagement would advance CRDP attainment as well as a nature positive economy and system transition in Bangladesh.

Adaptation to sea level rise in France

Sea level rise due to climate change is an ongoing process that will continue for centuries and millennia. In response to this, France is increasingly considering sea level rise in its coastal risks and land use policies. Here, we show that despite real progress in coastal adaptation policies made so far, major challenges remain. We report progress regarding the consideration of ongoing erosion and flooding during storms, in particular owing to an evolving national regulation increasingly supporting the implementation of a nationally defined integrated coastal zones management strategy. Yet, chronic flooding at high-tides in ports and cities expected to emerge in the 2030s, as well as permanent flooding and shoreline retreat projected to take place within centuries without major protection works remain largely unaddressed to date. Major questions remain in terms of adaptation finance and other measures supporting coastal adaptation such as climate services. Finally, the topic of coastal adaptation lacks connections with the broader context of transformations needed to address climate change, biodiversity losses, and meet the sustainable development goals. The case of France exemplifies how an evolving adaptation planning, which takes decades to implement, can ultimately fall short of effectively addressing major transformational challenges and achieving climate resilient development. We argue that a clear and transparent public debate on climate change and the nature of solutions could help bridge the gap between ongoing adaptation and transformative measures in line with the challenges.

The sustainability of development pathways and climate change vulnerability in the Americas

Sustainability transformation requires societies to shift their development pathways to maintain ecological integrity and supply basic human needs over generations. We examine the sustainability of the development pathways of 351 national and sub-national geopolitical units in the Americas between 2001 and 2020. Then, we test the hypothesis that such pathways are influenced by land area, population size and topographic heterogeneity. Finally, we combine information about the sustainability of development pathways with population density and future climate change index to identify the Americas' socio-climatic hotspots. The Americas is a mosaic of geopolitical units following distinct development pathways. Most (74.3%) of the geopolitical units have, to date, followed unsustainable development pathways. Altogether, they represent 37.6% of the Americas' land area and are home to 83.3% of the Americas' population. Land area and topographic heterogeneity facilitate sustainable pathways, while population size constrains them. Climate change will affect all geopolitical units, but those with unsustainable development pathways, a high population density and high climate change index are expected to be particularly vulnerable and should be considered priorities for climate-resilient development programmes. There is a need for integrated place-based policies that strengthen ecological and socio-economic infrastructures to advance sustainable development pathways under changing climate conditions.

Just nature-based solutions and the pursuit of climate resilient urban development

Nature-based solutions (NbS) offer pathways towards climate resilient development. For cities, these pathways translate to a host of benefits to address the climate crisis, including climate change adaptation and mitigation, biodiversity protection and enhancement, and human well-being. In urban spaces, NbS are also about the design and re-design of the urban built and natural environment. This presents a need to create the institutions and governance mechanisms that allow for the co-production and co-design of NbS alongside local communities in ways that serve to address justice and legacies of inequality. In this perspective, I examine three areas of focus to deliver just nature-based solutions: problem, process, and progress. Problem focuses on the types of relationships nature-based solutions seek to transform—the race and class-based inequalities embedded in urban form. Process addresses how nature-based solutions can deliver justice through design and co-production. Finally, progress is about developing indicators and measuring progress towards achieving just nature-based solutions and how they reflect diverse and pluralistic value systems. Collectively these should move just NbS towards the repair of social and ecological exploitation in and beyond the city.

Realizing Low-carbon and Climate-resilient Development on Aquaculture

Aquaculture production supports food security, and it is an important commodity for Indonesia's exports. Climate change determines the sustainability of aquaculture production. Low-carbon development is an effort to control the impact of climate change from a mitigation standpoint, while climate-resilience development is an adaptation. In order to realize sustainable aquaculture in a broad and long dimension and in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is necessary to develop a low-carbon and climate-resilience development strategy. A descriptive analysis was carried out on a review of published literature to develop the concept of low-carbon and climate-resilience development in aquaculture. The keywords used in the literature search are the impact of climate change on aquaculture, low-carbon development, climate-resilience development, and achievement of the SDGs in aquaculture. The research that has been published mostly discusses the potential Green House Gas emissions (GHG) from aquaculture activities, is still very limited and explains efforts to mitigate and adapt aquaculture to climate change. Efficiency and use of alternative energy sources, increased productivity, feed efficiency and effectiveness, effluent management, disease control and water quality management, and superior seeds can be applied in low-carbon emission development. Meanwhile, climate-resilience development that can be implemented includes the implementation of Integrated Multi-Tropical Aquaculture (IMTA) and Regional Integrated Multi-Tropical Aquaculture (RIMTA), closed systems, and Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS), as well as ponds that integrate mangroves.

Water scarcity and local economic activity: Spatial spillovers and the role of irrigation

This paper explores the spatial spillover effects of water scarcity on local economic activity and examines the role of irrigation in modulating these effects. Utilizing a newly assembled global geospatial data set that combines information on seasonal water availability and economic activity measured by nighttime luminosity, I conduct a spatial econometric analysis at the granular level of 0.25°×0.25° grid cells worldwide. My results reveal that agricultural water scarcity in rainfed grid cells has negative spatial spillover effects on economic activity, extending up to 300 kilometers away. However, the presence of irrigation infrastructure effectively mitigates both the direct negative impacts and the negative spatial spillover effects of agricultural water scarcity on economic activity. These results suggest that the benefits of certain climate adaptation measures may not be confined locally, but are observable at a larger scale. This paper emphasizes the importance of considering spatial dynamics and irrigation in understanding the effects of water scarcity on economic activity, providing valuable insights for water resource management policies targeted at promoting climate-resilient development.

Reduction of Green House Gases Emission: Towards a Sustainable Future

In the current time the climate change risk has continued to intensify such that sustainability of the world is difficult, hence urgent emission mitigation actions. An in-depth analysis of GHG emission reduction policies is provided in this paper, with a focus on strategies involving technology, policy, society, and the economy. Regulations play a significant role in reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, which gives a framework for the development of incentives for all sectors. The social cost of carbon is internalized by carbon pricing strategies like carbon taxes and cap-and-trade programs, which promote businesses to invest in greener practices and technological advances. Based on market structures, standards for energy efficiency and mandates for emissions targets may act as catalysts for changes in the market that push towards such low-carbon options. If a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from major economic sectors like agriculture, industry, transportation, or energy is to be achieved, technological advancement will continue to be crucial. Consequently, renewables including solar power wind turbine systems and hydroelectricity plus others replaced fossil fuelled-based sources thereby reducing emission in generation of electrical power. Further, this is to be achieved through efforts in grid modernization, smart infrastructural development and energy storage facilitating the penultimate connection of vast amount of renewable power to electricity grids especially during peak times. Again, industrial sector seems promising as far as decarbonizing production processes and reducing emissions are concerned by adopting clean technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), electrification and sustainable manufacturing processes. Additionally, changes that result into modification in the transport sector like electric vehicles expansion of public transportation systems, promotion of active transport modes amongst others also reduces emission levels whilst enhancing air quality. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy through financing will therefore require significant mobilization of investments towards clean energy infrastructure, sustainable land use practices and climate-resilient development. To direct capital towards low-carbon investment green bonds, carbon markets and public-private partnerships provide innovative financing mechanisms.

Breaking barriers: Assessing technology transfer for climate-resilient development

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) promotes technology transfer between developed and developing countries as a crucial tool for limiting global temperature rise. This climate change mitigation role of technology transfers has attracted extensive research on the barriers to technology transfer. However, a thematic analysis consolidating the diverse data is lacking. This study aims to fill this gap by conducting a thematic analysis of the barriers to technology transfer, which will consolidate and disseminate information to enhance the chances of successful technology transfer. The study employs a non-time-restricted thematic analysis of the barriers to technology transfer spanning 1990–2023. After analysing a diverse pool of secondary data, 285 codes revealed six primary themes: Organization and knowledge, Government and law, Investment and finance, Consumer and market, Infrastructure and development, and Climate and others. The primary themes of Organization and knowledge (OK) and Government and law (GL), with frequency scores of 108 and 69, respectively, are identified as the top two barriers. Furthermore, within these primary themes of OK and GL, the subbarriers of System and technical and Political issues, with frequency scores of 53 and 26, are the most frequently cited barriers. Addressing the technology transfer barriers identified in this study improves climate resilience and aligns with global climate initiatives such as the Paris Agreement and the "New Global Financing" initiative. Therefore, the study findings can contribute to UN Sustainable Development Goal 12 and the implementation of circular economy practices.

Growing resilient futures: agroforestry as a pathway towards climate resilient development for smallholder farmers

Climate change is increasing pressure on communities that are already experiencing high levels of vulnerability and poverty, threatening their subsistence. Among the most vulnerable are smallholder farmers in the Global South, who rely on their yields for food and income. Smallholders need to adapt to changes in rainfall, temperature, and weather patterns and their knock-on effects, and at the same time, ensure that their on-farm climate adaptations do not make climate change worse by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises the need for Climate Resilient Development Pathways (CRDPs) to support vulnerable communities, including smallholder farmers, in balancing climate adaptation, mitigation and development. CRDPs comprise reactive and/or preventive actions that key stakeholders (e.g., government, business, civil society and individuals, including smallholder farmers) can take to become more resilient in the context of a changing climate while not compromising their development or increasing emissions. The CRDP framework has so far remained conceptual, providing little information on how to actually create these pathways in practice. This paper addresses this gap, and with a focus on agroforestry projects and smallholders in the Global South, assesses how CRDPs can become more concrete and actionable through a focus on agroforestry: the voluntary combination of crop and/or pasture with trees and/or shrubs, considering its contribution to climate adaptation, mitigation and development. We draw on literature review and focus group data, analysed using Atlas.ti 23 and a coding process to present a tool relevant to project designers, policymakers and researchers to assess agroforestry projects according to different aspects of climate resilient development, with particular focus on smallholder farmers in the Global South. Evaluation of the tool found it is relevant and useful for project developers and funders to check that their projects follow the components of CRD, but the tool needs to be translated to the local context to better address local demands and reflect regional specificities, which focus group participants deemed possible.