The sustainability of development pathways and climate change vulnerability in the Americas

Abstract

Sustainability transformation requires societies to shift their development pathways to maintain ecological integrity and supply basic human needs over generations. We examine the sustainability of the development pathways of 351 national and sub-national geopolitical units in the Americas between 2001 and 2020. Then, we test the hypothesis that such pathways are influenced by land area, population size and topographic heterogeneity. Finally, we combine information about the sustainability of development pathways with population density and future climate change index to identify the Americas' socio-climatic hotspots. The Americas is a mosaic of geopolitical units following distinct development pathways. Most (74.3%) of the geopolitical units have, to date, followed unsustainable development pathways. Altogether, they represent 37.6% of the Americas' land area and are home to 83.3% of the Americas' population. Land area and topographic heterogeneity facilitate sustainable pathways, while population size constrains them. Climate change will affect all geopolitical units, but those with unsustainable development pathways, a high population density and high climate change index are expected to be particularly vulnerable and should be considered priorities for climate-resilient development programmes. There is a need for integrated place-based policies that strengthen ecological and socio-economic infrastructures to advance sustainable development pathways under changing climate conditions.