Climate Policy Decisions Research Articles

The influence of the energy transition on the significance of key energy metrics

Transparent, consistent accounting of climate-related energy targets is a fundamental building block to the architecture of international climate agreements. Many of these climate targets focus on the transition of the energy system which has led to the development of various energy transition scenarios. Now that fossil resources are being replaced by non-combustible and renewable energy sources a re-assessment of the applicability of the current set of metrics on which these energy scenarios are based is necessary.Now that energy derived from renewable and non-combustible resources with abundant availability but limited instantaneous availability becomes more prominent the ongoing electrification of the energy system combined with the decarbonisation of the electricity system has caused the current set of energy scenario metrics to become ambiguous. More specifically we show that Total Primary Energy (TPE) and its related indicators, Energy Efficiency (EE), Energy Intensity (EI) as well as the key metric Electricity Generation Capacity (EGC) have become unrepresentative, potentially misleading and for a large part irrelevant. This is problematic as these metrics steer climate policy and investment decisions based on statistical artefacts rather than valid representation of the energy system. This study concludes with a set of requirements on energy scenarios to overcome these problems that will lead energy scenarios to focus on Total Final Consumption within a mix of related energy metrics.

Future realities of climate change impacts: an integrated assessment study of Canada

This paper presents an integrated assessment model for use with climate policy decision making in Canada. The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI_CDN represents Canada within the global society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system. The model uses a system dynamics simulation approach to investigate the impacts of climate change in Canada and policy options for adapting to changing global conditions. The disaggregation techniques allow ANEMI_CDN to show results with various temporal resolutions. Two Canadian policy scenarios are presented as illustrative examples to map policy impacts on key model variables, including population, water-stress, food production, energy consumption, and emissions under changing climate over this century. The main finding is a significant impact of a carbon tax on energy consumption. Two policy scenario simulations provide additional insights to policy makers regarding the choice of adaptation/mitigation options along with their implementation time.

Forecasting China’s CO2 Emissions for Energy Consumption Based on Cointegration Approach

Forecasting CO2 emissions is important for climate policy decision making. The paper attempts to implement empirically the long-term forecast of CO2 emissions based on cointegration theory under the business-as-usual scenario, by using statistical data from China over the period 1953 to 2016. We focus on the relationships between CO2 emissions for energy consumption and influential factors: per capita GDP, urbanization level, energy intensity, and total energy consumption. The empirical results are presented as follows: (1) continuous increase of carbon pollution resulting from energy consumption (1953-2016) indicates that China has beard great pressure of carbon reduction. (2) Though reduction of carbon intensity in 2020 would account for 50.14% that of 2005, which meets the requirements announced by Chinese government in 2009, China would bear carbon emissions for energy consumption of 14.4853 billion tCO2 by 2030, which is nearly 1.59 times that of 2016 and nearly 105 times that of 1953. The results suggest that the policymakers in China may take more effective measures such as reducing energy intensities and formulating stricter environmental regulations in order to mitigate the CO2 emissions and realize the win-win of economic and ecological benefits.

The Value of Weather Event Science for Pending Climate Policy Decisions

This essay furthers debate about the burgeoning science of Probabilistic Event Attribution (PEA) and its relevance to imminent climate policy decisions. It critically examines Allen Thompson and Friederike Otto’s recent arguments concerning the implications of PEA studies for how the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) policy framework should be revised during the 2016 ‘review and decision’. I show that their contention that PEA studies cannot usefully inform decision-making about adaptation policies and strategies is misguided and argue that the current UNFCCC treaty, the ‘Paris Agreement’, supersedes their proposed revision.

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Forecasting Using an Improved LSSVM Model Optimized by Whale Optimization Algorithm

Accurate and reliable forecasting on energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is of great significance for climate policy decision making and energy planning. Due to the complicated nonlinear relationships of CO2 emissions with its driving forces, the accurate forecasting for CO2 emissions is a tedious work, which is an important issue worth studying. In this study, a novel CO2 emissions prediction method is proposed which employs the latest nature-enlightened optimization method, named the Whale optimization algorithm (WOA), to search the optimized values of two parameters of LSSVM (least squares support vector machine), namely the WOA-LSSVM model. Meanwhile, the driving forces of CO2 emissions including GDP (gross domestic product), energy consumption and population are chosen to be the import variables of the proposed WOA-LSSVM method. Taking China’s CO2 emissions as an instance, the effectiveness of WOA-LSSVM-based CO2 emissions forecasting is verified. The comparative analysis results indicate that the WOA-LSSVM model is significantly superior to other selected models, namely FOA (fruit fly optimization algorithm)-LSSVM, LSSVM, and OLS (ordinary least square) models in terms of CO2 emissions forecasting. The proposed WOA-LSSVM model has the potential to effectively improve the accuracy of CO2 emissions forecasting. Meanwhile, as a new nature-enlightened heuristic optimization algorithm, the WOA has the prospect for wide application.

Politicizing energy justice and energy system transitions: Fossil fuel divestment and a “just transition”

The burgeoning energy justice scholarship highlights the importance of justice and equity concerns in the context of global decarbonization and the transition to a green economy. This paper seeks to extend current conceptualizations of energy justice across entire energy lifecycles, from extraction to final use, to offer an analytically richer and more accurate picture of the (in)justice impacts of energy policy decisions. We identify two key areas that require greater attention and scrutiny in order to enact energy justice within a more democratized energy system. First, we call for greater recognition of the politics, power dynamics and political economy of socio-technical energy transitions. We use the example of the fossil fuel divestment movement as a way to shift energy justice policy attention upstream to focus on the under-researched injustices relating to supply-side climate policy analysis and decisions. Second, the idea of a “just transition” and the distributional impacts on “and the role of” labor in low-carbon transitions must be addressed more systematically. This focus produces a more directly political and politicizing framing of energy (in)justice and a just energy transition.

The Effect of Green Investments in an Agent-Based Climate-Economic Model

Climate-economic modeling often relies on macroeconomic integrated assessment models (IAMs) that in general try to capture how the combined system reacts to different policies. Irrespective of the specific modeling approach, IAMs suffer from two notable problems. First, although policies and emissions are dependent on individual or institutional behavior, the models are not able to account for the heterogeneity and adaptive behavior of relevant actors. Second, the models unanimously consider mitigation actions as costs instead of investments: an arguable definition, given that all other expenditures are classified as investments. Both are challenging if the long-term development of climate change and the economy shall be analyzed. This paper therefore proposes a dynamic agent-based model, based on the battle of perspectives approach (Janssen [1]; Janssen and de Vries [2]; Geisendorf [3, 4]) that details the consequences of various behavioral assumptions. Furthermore, expenditures for climate protection, e.g., the transition of the energy system to renewables, are regarded as investments in future technologies with promising growth rates and the potential to incite further growth in adjoining sectors (Jaeger et al. [5]). The paper analyzes how a different understanding of climate protection expenditures changes the system’s dynamic and, thus, the basis for climate policy decisions. The paper also demonstrates how erroneous perceptions impact on economic and climate development, underlining the importance to acknowledge heterogeneous beliefs and behavior for the success of climate policy.

Ethical communication to guide climate policy decisions in the Arctic

ABSTRACTRecent records of increasing temperature, melting of sea-ice, retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, increasing sea levels, and increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events provide clear evidence of global climate change, particularly in the Arctic. The impacts of climate change are not only environmental, but also influence social, economic, psychological, and political conditions in the region. The confluence of these conditions emphasises the need for improved communication of climate information and formulation of ethical responses to address changes in the Arctic. This review explores the meaning of ethical communication followed by an overview of the barriers to ethical communication including uncertainties related to climate change, and constructions of varying interpretations of climate change due to discipline-specific perspectives of science, journalism, and law, in the Arctic. The final section of this paper summarises key elements of ethical communication, and integration of ethical principles in formulating decision-making strategies to address climate change in the Arctic.

Managing Climate Policy Information Facilitating Knowledge Transfer to Policy Makers

In the challenging context of intense negotiations and radical developments in the field of climate policy, informing stakeholders about opportunities and pathways and about scientific insights and warnings is important to help create positive dynamics. Policy makers need digestible information to design good policies, and understand their options and the possible impacts of these options. They need access to well-structured knowledge, as well as appropriate techniques to manage information and data. However, available information is often difficult to access, not in the right format and of limited use to stakeholders. The range of knowledge needs identified has to be effectively addressed by providing interested parties with suitable, to-the-point information, covering the identified gaps. This is the main aim of this article that proposes the design and development of a climate policy database, which contains all the resources that can cover the identified knowledge gaps. The resources are derived from a broad range of existing reports, research and climate policy decisions at different levels. The goal is to render climate policy associated stakeholders able to extract key policy conclusions. The added value of this database was verified by users and stakeholders that generally argued that the climate policy database facilitates solid understanding of climate policy implications and fosters collaborative knowledge exchange in the field.

Valuing large‐scale solar photovoltaics in future electricity generation portfolios and its implications for energy and climate policies

This study examines the potential role of large-scale photovoltaics (PV) generation in addressing the economic, energy security and environmental challenges facing the electricity industry. A Monte-Carlo-based generation portfolio modelling tool is employed to examine the value and impacts of different PV penetrations in future electricity generation portfolios under future uncertainty and multiple industry objectives of minimising expected future costs, cost uncertainty and CO2 emissions. The Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) facing highly uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon price, plant capital costs and electricity demand was used as a case study. Hourly PV generations across diverse locations were simulated for different penetration levels. Modelling results show that, with relatively modest carbon prices, increased PV penetration leads to not only reductions in cost uncertainties and greenhouse gas emissions, but also the overall industry generation costs. This would greatly enhance the value and thus encourage investment in large-scale solar PV, even when the transmission cost estimates were included. The value of PV generation in future generation portfolios is also influenced by the mix of generation technologies. The findings from this study can assist in energy and climate policy decision making in the electricity industry, particularly with regard to large-scale PV generation and carbon pricing.

The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada

Historic Canadian elections in 2015, both federally and provincially, created an opportunity for action on climate policy. While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of Canadian climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

Policy uncertainty and diffusion of carbon capture and storage in an optimal region

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has the potential to dramatically reduce GHG emissions in energy supply and industry. However, its high costs mean that uncertainty about the stringency of future climate policy may dissuade firms from investing in this technology. This article explores the relationship between firms expectations of government policy and investment in CCS. First, it synthesizes recent cost estimates for CCS applications in electricity generation and oil sands extraction in Canada. Second, it uses these estimates to investigate the potential impact of policy stringency and uncertainty on CCS adoption in Alberta, a Canadian province with near-ideal CCS potential. The results suggest investment in CCS, and by extension other costly abatement actions, will not occur unless governments create a more stringent and durable climate policy environment than currently exists.Policy relevanceThis paper has two novel and linked objectives, the first of significant utility to researchers and energy modellers in particular, the second to climate policy analysts and decision makers. First, it synthesizes publicly available carbon capture and storage literature and develops cost estimates for key applications related to thermal electricity generation and oil sands extraction in Canada. Second, it uses these cost estimates to investigate the potential impact of policy stringency and uncertainty on carbon capture and storage adoption in Alberta, Canada. Alberta is a test case for CCS due to its fossil resources and high CO2 storage potential, and the technology's success or failure in this jurisdiction should be of interest to policy makers elsewhere.

Scientists Track Sulfate Emissions Across Time

Scientists have a precise record of sulfate deposition from volcanoes stretching back 2000 years, a finding that will better inform future climate models and policy decisions. The new reconstruction was detailed in a paper published online on 6 July in Nature Climate Change (doi:10.1038/nclimate2293).

How fast can businesses in the new energy sector grow? An analysis of critical factors

For the new energy technology markets to grow, demand, prices, and business conditions need to be in balance. It is not just declining prices and increasing volumes that are important, but the business in the new energy sector also needs to be healthy, which is not always the case at present. We have analyzed the ability of businesses in the new energy sector to invest in new production capacity, which influences the total volume growth. Using the self-financeable growth rate (SGR) as an indicator, a declining trend was found among PV and wind power manufacturers. The prospects of initiating new investments through returns from operations are poor or negligible at present, which is explained by tougher competition, shrinking public support, and new entrants, among others. Reducing the cost of sales would be the most effective way to improve the growth prospects, though increasing revenues, e.g., through higher product prices, comes close to achieving the same result. Market measures such as consolidation, rationalization, better asset use, improving efficiency, etc. are equally important. The analysis results imply a growth limit of ca. 15–25% per year with present market conditions, which may also be a more permanent level, supported by findings from technology diffusion and growth model studies. The results suggest that it is not self-evident that the new energy technologies will meet the future goals set for these in the climate and energy policy strategies, unless policymakers and decision makers properly address the issue of restoring and securing sound business conditions.

Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options. Policy relevance The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.

Recent estimates of energy efficiency potential in the USA

Understanding the potential for reducing energy demand through increased end-use energy efficiency can inform energy and climate policy decisions. However, if potential estimates are vastly different, they engender controversial debates, clouding the usefulness of energy efficiency in shaping a clean energy future. A substantive question thus arises: is there a general consensus on the potential estimates? To answer this question, this paper reviews recent studies of US national and regional energy efficiency potential in buildings and industry. Although these studies are based on differing assumptions, methods, and data, they suggest technically possible reductions of ~25–40 % in electricity demand and ~30 % in natural gas demand in 2020 and economic reductions of ~10–25 % in electricity demand and ~20 % in natural gas demand in 2020. These estimates imply that electricity growth from 2009 to 2020 ranges from turning US electricity demand growth negative, to reducing it to a growth rate of ~0.3 %/year (compared to ~1 % baseline growth).

How much is United States greenhouse gas emissions certainty worth?

The United States (US) Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Mandatory Reporting Program (GHGRP) is designed to collect accurate and timely facility-level emissions data that might be used by policy makers to support sound climate policy decisions in the future. After reviewing the US Inventory and the expected improvements under GHGRP, we find that the benefits of GHGRP are minimal and quite possibly zero while the cost of implementation is relatively high, that the stated goal of reducing emissions uncertainty is not met by the program in its current form, and that the additional emissions data to be collected is likely not needed given the ongoing non-committal environment of US GHG regulation. Our review also highlights the need for EPA to make its US Inventory GHG models accessible to the public, which would enable a more thorough review of its assumptions and methods by the broader scientific community.

Political barriers of implementing carbon markets in Japan: A Public Choice analysis and the empirical evidence before and after the Fukushima nuclear disaster

The Great Tōhoku-Earthquake and the following nuclear meltdown in Fukushima called the world’s attention to Japans’ energy and climate policy. Japan is one of the biggest emitters of greenhouses gases in the world and is still facing problems of reaching its Kyoto target by domestic reductions. Emissions trading has been used in Japanese climate policy since 2005. However, major emission reductions have not been achieved and a functioning market does not exist. Hence, using an advanced Public Choice approach, we ask for the political reasons for the failure of ambitious carbon markets in Japan and how the earthquake has influenced the political chances of emissions trading. Also, we evaluate Public Choice’s arguments and environmental policy making. We show that in Japan, even after some positive promising developments, chances for an ambitious carbon market are still very low. We also show that a Public Choice that takes exogenous conditions into account delivers important insights into climate policy decision making.

Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels

Sea-level rise is one of the key consequences of climate change. Its impact is long-term owing to the multi-century response timescales involved. This study addresses how much sea-level rise will result in coming centuries from climate-policy decisions taken today.

Uncertain Policy Decisions and Investment Timing: Evidence from Small Hydropower Plants

Based on panel data of 214 licenses to construct small hydropower plants, we examine whether uncertainty with respect to the introduction of a market for renewable energy certificates affected the timing of investments in Norway from 2001 to 2010. Using regression analysis, we find that (1) investors owning a portfolio of licenses acted in accordance with a real options investment rule, and uncertain climate policy decisions delayed their investment rate; and (2) investors owning a single license acted in accordance with a traditional net present value investment rule, focusing on the value of the immediate investment and ignoring policy uncertainty.