Climate Planning Research Articles

Co-learning partnerships and carbon management in Denmark and Canada

PurposeClimate change poses risks to society and the demand for carbon literacy within small and medium-sized enterprises is increasing. Skills and knowledge are required for organizational greenhouse gas accounting and science-based decisions to help businesses reduce transitional risks. At the University of Copenhagen and the University of Northern British Columbia, two carbon management courses have been developed to respond to this growing need. Using an action-based co-learning model, students and business are paired to quantify and report emissions and develop climate plans and communication strategies.Design/methodology/approachThis paper draws on surveys of businesses that have partnered with the co-learning model, designed to provide insight on carbon reductions and the impacts of co-learning. Data collected from 12 respondents in Denmark and 19 respondents in Canada allow for cross-institutional and international comparison in a Global North context.FindingsResults show that while co-learning for carbon literacy is welcomed, companies identify limitations: time and resources; solution feasibility; governance and reporting structures; and communication methods. Findings reveal a need for extension, both forwards and backwards in time, indicating that the collaborations need to be lengthened and/or intensified. Balancing academic requirements detracts from usability for businesses, and while municipal and national policy and emission targets help generate a general societal understanding of the issue, there is no concrete guidance on how businesses can implement operational changes based on inventory results.Originality/valueThe research brings new knowledge to the field of transitional climate risks and does so with a focus on both small businesses and universities as important co-learning actors in low-carbon transitions. The comparison across geographies and institutions contributes an international solution perspective to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Diffusion of Solar PV Energy in Italy: Can Large-Scale PV Installations Trigger the Next Growth Phase?

The National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of the EU Member States have established comprehensive goals for 2030 to speed up the process of energy transition. Though Italy was an innovator in the area of photovoltaics (PV) up until 2014, the subsequent collapse and stagnation of its PV market have revealed an intrinsic fragility, which makes reaching international targets in the future unclear. This study used the Generalized Bass Model in a multi-phase extension to offer insights into and perspectives on the Italian PV market with the use of new data at finer temporal and market-size scales. Our model-based evidence suggests the possibility of a remarkable structural change corresponding to the “reboot” period after the pandemic crisis. In this period, small- and large-scale PV adoption, after years of parallel pathways, have taken largely different routes. On the one hand, small-scale adoption exhibited a fast decline with the end of the post-COVID-19 incentive programs, thus confirming the traditional “addiction to incentive” issue. On the other hand, during the “reboot” period, large-scale installations showed, for the first time, symptoms of exponential growth. This is consistent with the possibility that, finally, this sector is on an autonomous growth path. The latter evidence might represent a critically important novelty in the Italian PV landscape, where firms—rather than households—take the lead in the process. Nonetheless, future public monitoring and guidance are both urgent requirements to avoid a further catastrophic fall in the residential PV market and to make the sustained growth of the large-scale PV industry a robust phenomenon.

Life cycle assessment of energy green transition goals in Slovenia and Serbia: Heat pump example

Heat pumps are a promising technology to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Their use benefits from decarbonization of the national electricity mixes across the EU, as running on cleaner electricity would reduce the emissions associated with the heat generated from heat pumps. The study aimed to perform a life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the impact of using heat pumps as a heating source in Slovenia and Serbia under different electricity scenarios that align with measures presented in National Energy and Climate plans. The results show significant differences in the environmental profiles of Serbian and Slovenian electricity sectors and improvements from the current to the future mixes (2030) with a higher share of renewables such as photovoltaics. In the impact category of global warming, an 84.7 % higher value of 1 MJ of heat produced by ground source heat pump in Serbia (0.080 kg CO2 eq) was observed compared to Slovenia (0.033 kg CO2 eq) and 85.9 % higher value compared to Europe (0.032 kg CO2 eq). The reduction in the impact category global warming in NECP 2030 scenarios that model reduction in coal and increase solar PV was observed in both countries (-17.1% Serbia; -28.6 % Slovenia). On the other hand, an increase in the impact category of mineral resource scarcity was observed, with values higher in Slovenia than in Serbia due to a higher share of PV. The study demonstrates that LCA provides a powerful tool to consider GHGE reduction and other environmental impacts, such as land use and mineral resource scarcity, and it can be used to support decision-makers dealing with future national energy plans and decarbonization strategies.

State and Entrepreneurship on the Road to Green Growth in a Post Lignite Era: Friends or Foes?

Green governance is an emerging field, attracting increasing attention from scholars, and governments have been using a range of policy tools to support the transition to green economy, including regulation; financial incentives; voluntary agreements; fiscal measures; public sector procurement; targeting to the deployment of clean energy technologies. Greece has little experience in developing comprehensive long-term energy and climate strategies; thus, it is imperative that governance and analytical underpinning of long-term energy and climate planning be improved, and investment needs and innovative financing instruments for clean energy technologies analysed. To investigate the critical issue of state and entrepreneurship synergies in the framework of the green economy, the present survey employed a web-based questionnaire distributed to 417 small and medium sized enterprises in Western Macedonia from September to December 2021. Data analysis involved an exploratory factor and logistic regression analysis, creating a statistical model with three independent factors describing basic tools of the green economy. The results showed that, in Greece, state environmental governance is often perceived as inadequate, scarce, or constrained by considerations of economic growth. In addition, the research indicates that government policies with regards to environmental law implementation are mainly restricted to the "command and control" regulatory model, which fails to address green innovation and entrepreneurship and promote synergies between the private sector and the State. The analyses demonstrate that if government revenues are heavily reliant on taxes and fines, their capacity to finance structural adjustment programs can be severely affected, and alternative approaches are necessary to achieve the green growth.

PM2.5 emission from the coal combustion in the Polish residential sector. State and outlooks

Abstract The paper presents obtaining the average PM2.5 emission factor from coal combustion in the residential sector using (statistical) Monte Carlo simulation combined with the model proposed by [Lorenz 1999] and [Radović 1997], also applied by [Stala–Szlugaj 2011]. According to the results of laboratory experiments [Czaplicka et al. 2019; Shen 2014], the estimated amount of PM2.5 released into the air from the individually heated residential sector might be underestimated. Simulated emission factor is used for estimation of the PM2.5 emission trend for the period 1990–2018 and compared with the data provided by the official Polish emission inventory [NCEM 2020]. Due to significant changes in officially applied data (share of coal consumption and emission factor) [MCAE 2023], and to ensure the data consistency with projected fuel demand [Stala–Szlugaj 2017], and PM2.5 emissions [MSA 2019], the older data is used [NCEM 2020] in the paper. In the near future, the next substantial changes in projected fuel use are expected due to the ongoing works on the update of the National Energy and Climate Plan.

Environmental and Economic Assessment of the Italian Energy Transition Scenarios

The aim of this work is to assess the environmental and economic impact of the Energy Transition of the Italian Electrical Sector, as planned by the PNIEC (Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan), published in December 2019, and by the scenarios, developed by Terna and Snam, updated to reach the Fit-for-55 objectives. The analysis of the historical trends related to RES (Renewable Energy Sources) capacity increase, allows comparing the historical effort with the one expected to reach the 2030 goals. In particular wind off-shore production is expected to have a larger impact than envisaged before. On the technical side, some scenarios assumptions are going to be revised to more realistic values. The technological and economic efforts, besides an estimation of the expected global environmental benefit, are assessed taking into account: i) the revised RES capacity increase, ii) the grid infrastructure enhancement, and iii) the envisaged installation of new storage and electrolyzer capacity. With flexibility items, ii) and iii), requiring a similar level of capital cost as the new RES capacity. The reduction in natural gas consumption in the different scenarios is expected to reduce both the Green House Gas emissions and the operating cost with a large impact on the average efficiency of the natural gas-fed power plants.

The landscape of European policies in the power sector: first-mover advantages

In order to achieve the commonly agreed emission reduction target, the European Commission called upon the member states to submit National Energy and Climate Plans to ensure increased transparency for the respective national targets and strategies. An analysis of these plans shows that some member states have declared ambitious emission reductions targets, as well as technology-specific phaseout policies in the power sector. A transformation to a climate-friendly system requires considerable investment, the question arises if there are benefits to be in the vanguard. We find that countries may have an incentive to outperform in the development of a low-carbon electricity system.

The Shift to Synergies in China’s Climate Planning: Aligning Goals with Policies and Institutions

China has long sought to address climate change in line with other development goals. However, research supporting this alignment often employs data-driven models that downplay the policies and institutions needed to achieve the multiple benefits that studies feature in their analyses. This oversight is troubling because it neglects gaps between goals and the actual integration of climate and development or co-control of air pollution and greenhouse gases (GHGs). Additionally, this oversight may overlook growing implementation challenges as China pursues synergies between net-zero emissions, biodiversity, and circularity. This article illustrates these challenges by tracing the goals and policies/institutions in China over three phases: (1) integration (1979–2010), (2) co-control (2011–2019), and (3) synergies (2020–present). This article argues that China needs to strengthen the science–policy interface and ensure that new market-based policy instruments (such as emissions trading programs) as well as the leadership responsibility system incentivize reductions in overall GHG emissions while shrinking ecological footprints in the shifts to synergies.

Municipal Sustainability and Climate Planning: A Study of 38 Canadian Local Governments’ Plans and Reports

Municipal Sustainability and Climate Planning: A Study of 38 Canadian Local Governments’ Plans and Reports

The effects of dietary changes in Europe on greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural incomes in Ireland and Denmark

Livestock farming is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions. In Europe, the agricultural sectors of Ireland and Denmark are the most livestock-intensive. Based on a scenario analysis using a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the effects of dietary changes toward the recommendations of the EAT-Lancet Commission in Europe on the agricultural sector of Ireland and Denmark. Our results show that full adoption of the diet reduces agricultural emissions, particularly methane, with potential emission savings of 26.4% or 5.4 Mt CO2-equivalent in Ireland and 21.7%, or 1.9 Mt CO2-equivalent in Denmark. Global agricultural emissions decrease by 2.4% or 193.7 Mt CO2-equivalent. However, incomes in livestock farming fall. This is offset to varying degrees by gains in horticulture and trade dynamics, leading to different outcomes across regions. Policymakers should promote plant-based diets and monitor export dynamics to achieve effective emission reductions. Additionally, methane mitigation strategies should be integrated into climate plans. This study highlights the need for further research on country-specific environmental impacts and trade-offs associated with dietary changes.

Local Climate Zone in Xi’an City: A Novel Classification Approach Employing Spatial Indicators and Supervised Classification

The Local Climate Zone (LCZ), as a foundational element of urban climate zone classification proposed by Oke and Stewart, categorizes urban surface types based on 10 influential parameters affecting the urban heat island effect, such as building density, surface reflectivity, sky view factor, and surface roughness length. This method divides cities into 17 different Local Climate Zones (LCZs) to standardize climate observations and promote global climate research exchange, offering valuable insights for heat island studies. In this study, we enhance the existing local climate zones spatial classification approach by focusing on Xi’an city’s urban layout and architectural features. By using urban spatial indicators and employing a supervised classification approach and a spatial clustering method with land parcels as statistical units, we investigate typical urban areas and classify Xi’an’s land parcels into 17 or 15 distinct local climate zones. Subsequently, through the evaluation of two distinct classification methods, the most suitable urban microclimate zoning method for Xi’an city was selected. This optimization of the local climate zoning representation introduces a spatial classification method tailored to urban climate planning and control, utilizing urban spatial indicators and remote sensing data. The resulting urban climate zoning map not only supports sample selection for urban heat environment parameter observation but also aids urban planners in identifying spatial distribution patterns for climate zoning.

Europe's energy security: From Russian dependence to renewable reliance

This paper examines the impact of EU energy policies, namely the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP19) and REPowerEU (2022), on the European natural gas security of supply. Our analysis shows that the REPowerEU plan significantly cuts gas demand by 133 bcm compared to NECP19. This shift can make Europe independent from Russian gas by 2030. Executing REPowerEU requires faster, clean technology deployment. The EU needs to catch up in installations to reach REPowerEU targets, while NECP19 maintains high gas demand (423 bcm till 2030), potentially exacerbating gas import dependence. NECP19 not only raises gas demand but also brings substantial inter-annual variation (IAV) of demand. In cold years (twice in ten years), demand spikes by 39 bcm, and warm years (three in ten years) decrease it by 23 bcm. REPowerEU, while moderately increasing gas demand variation (around 7% versus NECP19), does not solve the demand variability issue. In extremely cold years (one in forty years), Europe may face a 46 bcm gap, around a quarter of the spot LNG market. Failing REPowerEU not only heightens gas import risk but also risks price spikes under varying climates and global market conditions. We offer policy recommendations to address potential price spikes related to IAV demand.

Incorporating climate justice into adaptation planning: The case of San Francisco

There is growing pressure for cities to plan for and take action on climate change in equitable and just ways. Scholars, however, continue to debate what justice looks like in practice, and cities struggle to plan for and implement climate justice. This article investigates the case of San Francisco, a forerunner in climate action and a city experiencing profound inequality. Our research employs an analytical framework that assesses how and to what extent climate justice is incorporated into climate adaptation planning. This study analyzes 20 years of adaptation efforts in San Francisco and is informed by interviews with city planners and agency staff. Our research has found that San Francisco's approach to climate planning has shifted in recent years from focusing primarily on technology and science to addressing concerns of justice and the needs of residents. While San Francisco has made efforts to develop climate justice plans, further inquiry is needed to study the challenges of fully integrating climate justice into implementation. The insights gained from this case of San Francisco and our analytical framework can inform future urban climate action plans and further the debate around climate justice in cities from the Global North.

Urban climate adaptation and mitigation action plans: A critical review

Local governments are expected now more than ever to lead climate action planning as climate change intensifies and urbanization increases rapidly. However, studies indicate limitations in the comprehensiveness and level of integration of adaptation and mitigation in existing climate action plans. To develop suitable climate action plans that are comprehensive and consistent with globally accepted standards and benchmarks, this study proposed an Urban Climate Action Planning framework and pilot-tested it with 257 urban climate action plans. Overall, 43 criteria are included in the framework across three stages of climate planning. The pilot test revealed that more than half of the sampled plans have a medium level of suitability, with 39% having a weak level of suitability. About 51% of plans from Europe have a weak level of suitability. Surprisingly, none of the plans sampled from Africa and Latin America achieved a weak level of suitability despite lacking a significant share of global climate research and development funding. A Kruskal-Wallis test shows a statistically significant association between stages of climate planning and (a) city types (p-value of 0.004326) and (b) year of adoption or publication of climate plans and suitability scores (p-value of 0.0001027). Urban climate action plans adopted or published more recently (2018–2022) are likely more suitable than those adopted or published earlier. The sampled urban climate action plans from the Global South had higher average suitability scores than those from the Global North. The study presents key findings and considerations for urban climate action planning and future research.

Stakeholder-based modelling in climate change planning for the agriculture sector in Argentina

ABSTRACT The development of long-term scenarios to outline pathways for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 has become a standard practice in climate change policy planning. In Argentina, a modelling process was initiated in 2019 in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector utilizing three tools: FABLE calculator, Dinamica EGO and Nature Map. In order to generate technical inputs for the modelling exercise a stakeholder dialogue was launched. A 2050 Carbon Neutrality scenario was developed, alongside several intermediate scenarios based on stakeholders´ visions of the future. The modelling results demonstrated the biophysical feasibility of achieving carbon neutrality in the Argentinean AFOLU sector by 2050. However, alignment with current sectoral priorities was identified as a challenge, leading stakeholders to propose less ambitious scenarios as more attainable targets. This experience underscored the significance of constructing multiple policy scenarios, facilitating the evaluation of diverse potential future trajectories for policymaking. These different pathways provided contrasting perspectives between political objectives, such as achieving carbon neutrality, and the practical feasibility of local implementation. Moreover, the process highlighted the vital role of integrating the private sector and environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in long-term climate planning, emphasizing the need for inclusive collaboration to address climate challenges effectively.

Planning the Installation of Marine Renewable Energies in Portugal - a tool for decision making

In the latest years, the European governments have developed and published the goals for their countries in terms of energy and climate as requested by the European Commission - The National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). In this sense, an intense activity on the planning of the installation of renewable energy systems took place in each Member State in order to meet the goals established on the NECPs. Following the recent energy crisis and the urgency to transform Europe’s energy system in Europe, the NECPs are also being adapted to this situation and the installation of renewable energy systems assumed an even higher relevance. In this sense, offshore wind, due to its characteristics – high wind resource, less occupation issues and others – will play a key role in the future energy mix. This work proposed the development and application of a holistic planning methodology considering the available offshore renewable resource, restrictions to the installation of marine energy systems and economic indicators, which resulted in a techno-economic platform – MarinePlan, developed in the scope of a National funded project – OffshorePlan

Exploring the association between health, local area characteristics and climate action plans in the UK: Cross-sectional analysis using administrative data from 2018 and a citizen science ranking of climate action plans from 2021

Local government has an important role to play in mitigation and adaption to climate change. In the UK, 82% of all emissions fall within the scope of local government. However, in UK climate legislation there is no statutory requirement for local government to address climate change. Eighty percent of local authorities have declared a climate emergency and developed climate action plans. The aim of this study is to explore the association between social vulnerability (poor health, financial resources, deprivation, house prices) and the quality of climate action plans as measured by a scorecard system created by Climate Emergency UK. We hypothesis that areas with lower levels of social vulnerability will have higher quality climate plans. We utilised a citizen science created dataset ranking local government’s climate action plans and administrative data on local area characteristics related to social vulnerability at the local authority level. Descriptive analysis and multivariate regression were employed. We found a very small but significant association between total weighted score, central government funding and average house prices. For the individual dimensions of the quality of climate action plans, higher male life expectancy and house prices were associated with better commitment and integration and having a greater percentage of the population over the age of 65 was associated with a lower score in this dimension. More urban areas and less deprived areas had higher scores for planning climate education, skills and training. We suggest that greater national guidance is needed including sharing good practice on how to build community support and additional funding for climate change mitigation/adaption in particular for education, skills, and training in more deprived areas may help to prevent variations in climate action plans increasing inequalities.

A framework for assessing the sustainable transition potential of municipal climate change mitigation plans

Local climate change mitigation plans can be essential in enabling sustainability transitions at the municipality level. However, existing frameworks for assessing the quality of climate plans inadequately address their potential to foster sustainability transitions. We develop an assessment framework consisting of indicators and associated questions by integrating elements of the transition management framework with essential quality dimensions of climate plans and planning processes identified through a literature review. We illustrate and validate the assessment framework by applying it to the climate plans of three medium-sized cities in Switzerland. Our findings demonstrate that the local climate change mitigation plans performed well regarding the tactical and operational indicators but were less optimal concerning strategic and reflexive indicators. Nevertheless, the transition management framework provided a useful framework contributing to a comprehensive and systemic assessment highlighting the importance of stakeholder involvement, inter-sectoral coordination, and monitoring and evaluation as a means for social learning.

Citizens call for sufficiency and regulation — A comparison of European citizen assemblies and National Energy and Climate Plans

There is a growing body of scientific evidence supporting sufficiency as an inevitable strategy for mitigating climate change. Despite this, sufficiency plays a minor role in existing climate and energy policies. Following previous work on the National Energy and Climate Plans of EU countries, we conduct a similar content analysis of the recommendations made by citizen assemblies on climate change mitigation in ten European countries and the EU, and compare the results of these studies. Citizen assemblies are representative mini-publics and enjoy a high level of legitimacy.We identify a total of 860 mitigation policy recommendations in the citizen assemblies’ documents, of which 332 (39 %) include sufficiency. Most of the sufficiency policies relate to the mobility sector, the least relate to the buildings sector. Regulatory instruments are the most often proposed means for achieving sufficiency, followed by fiscal and economic instruments. The average approval rate of sufficiency policies is high (93 %), with the highest rates for regulatory policies.Compared to National Energy and Climate Plans, the citizen assembly recommendations include a significantly higher share of sufficiency policies (factor three to six) with a stronger focus on regulatory policies. Consequently, the recommendations can be interpreted as a call for a sufficiency turn and a regulatory turn in climate mitigation politics. These results suggest that the observed lack of sufficiency in climate policy making is not due to a lack of legitimacy, but rather reflects a reluctance to implement sufficiency policies, the constitution of the policy making process and competing interests.

Governing intersectional climate justice: Tactics and lessons from Barcelona

AbstractCities and local governments are important actors in the global governance of climate change; however, the specific governance principles and arrangements that enable urban climate plans and policies to realize commitments to social equity and justice remain largely unexplored. This article uses the City of Barcelona, Spain, as a critical case study of emerging “intersectional climate justice” practice, where plans to build resilience to climate change are pursued in conjunction with efforts to tackle structural inequalities in accessing the built environment, health services, energy, housing, and transportation experienced by frontline communities. The study illustrates how Barcelona and its community partners do this through four different categories of governance and decision‐making tactics, which include: (1) experimenting with disruptive planning strategies; (2) working transversally across agencies and actors to institutionalize climate justice over time; (3) putting care at the center of urban planning; and (4) mobilizing place‐based approaches to tackle intersecting vulnerabilities of frontline residents. These tactics seek to redistribute the benefits of climate‐resilient infrastructures more fairly and to enhance participatory processes more meaningfully. Finally, we assess the limitations and challenges of mobilizing these tactics in everyday urban politics. Barcelona's experience contributes to research on climate governance by challenging the notion of distinct waves of governance and revealing concurrent dimensions of climate urbanism that coexist spatially and temporally. Our research also illustrates lessons for fairer climate governance in the city, where different tactics are mobilized to address structural and intersecting socioeconomic vulnerabilities that exacerbate the experience of climate change of frontline residents.