Climate Perspective Research Articles

Investigation of the 2013 Alberta flood from weather and climate perspectives

During 19–21 June 2013 a heavy precipitation event affected southern Alberta and adjoining regions, leading to severe flood damage in numerous communities and resulting in the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This flood was caused by a combination of meteorological and hydrological factors, which are investigated from weather and climate perspectives with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model. Results show that the contribution of orographic ascent to precipitation was important, exceeding 30 % over the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Another contributing factor was evapotranspiration from the land surface, which is found to have acted as an important moisture source and was likely enhanced by antecedent rainfall that increased soil moisture over the northern Great Plains. Event attribution analysis suggests that human induced greenhouse gas increases may also have contributed by causing evapotranspiration rates to be higher than they would have been under pre-industrial conditions. Frozen and snow-covered soils at high elevations are likely to have played an important role in generating record streamflows. Results point to a doubling of surface runoff due to the frozen conditions, while 25 % of the modelled runoff originated from snowmelt. The estimated return time of the 3-day precipitation event exceeds 50 years over a large region, and an increase in the occurrence of similar extreme precipitation events is projected by the end of the 21st century. Event attribution analysis suggests that greenhouse gas increases may have increased 1-day and 3-day return levels of May–June precipitation with respect to pre-industrial climate conditions. However, no anthropogenic influence can be detected for 1-day and 3-day surface runoff, as increases in extreme precipitation in the present-day climate are offset by decreased snow cover and lower frozen water content in soils during the May–June transition months, compared to pre-industrial climate.

Distribution Modeling of three screwworm species in the ecologically diverse landscape of North West Pakistan

North West Pakistan (NWP) is characterized by four eco-zones: Northern Montane Region, North Western Hills, Submontane Region and Indus Plains. Present study identified 1037 cases of traumatic myiasis in the region during 2012–2015. Screw worm larvae were classified as 12 species: Chrysomya bezziana (Villeneuve), Chryomya megacephala (Fabricius), Chrysomya rufifacies (Macquart), Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann), Lucilia sericata (Meigen), Lucilia illustris (Meigen), Lucilia porphyrina (Walker), Hemipyrellia ligguriens (Wiedemann), Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy), Wohlfahrtia magnifica (Schiner), Sarcophaga crassipalpalis (Macquart), Sarchophaga species. Among these C. bezziana, L. cuprina and W. magnifica with approximately 882 case reports were the principal agents of traumatic myiasis. The species W. magnifica is a first report from Pakistan. In order to investigate spatial distribution of these dominant species we used MaxEnt niche model. Our results revealed a well-established occurrence of C. bezziana and L. cuprina in the four eco-regions while W. magnifica is currently contained in the Submontane Region. Several hot spot areas of infestation were detected all characterized by high human population density showing synanthropic nature of these species. Wohlfahrtia magnifica was excluded from Northern Montane Region with severe winters and Southern Indus Plains with harsh summers revealing that invasive species are initially sensitive to extreme of temperatures. Presence of L. cuprina in the wet areas of North Humid Belt (Maximum annual precipitation: 1641mm) depicted a moisture preference of the species. In perspective of changing climate and future predictions of severe events such as droughts and flooding in NWP, W. magnifica can potentially alter the species composition. Considering these findings in an eco-geographically dynamic region of Pakistan we predict that two factors (1) Growing human population (2) Climatic conditions, equally contribute to range shift of synanthropic species.

Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast Version 2

AbstractTropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast version 2 (1985–2012) were evaluated from the climate perspective, with a focus on tropical cyclogenesis. Although the GEFS captures the climatological seasonality of tropical cyclogenesis over different ocean basins reasonably well, large errors exist on the regional scale. As different genesis pathways are dominant over different ocean basins, genesis biases are related to biases in different aspects of the large-scale or synoptic-scale circulations over different basins. The negative genesis biases over the western North Pacific are associated with a weaker-than-observed monsoon trough in the GEFS, the erroneous genesis pattern over the eastern North Pacific is related to a southward displacement of the ITCZ, and the positive genesis biases near the Cape Verde islands and negative biases farther downstream over the Atlantic can be attributed to the hyperactive Africa easterly waves in the GEFS. The interannual and subseasonal variability of TC activity in the reforecasts was also examined to evaluate the potential skill of the GEFS in providing subseasonal and seasonal predictions. The GEFS skillfully captures the interannual variability of TC activity over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, which can be attributed to the modulation of TCs by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). The GEFS shows promising skill in predicting the active and inactive periods of TC activity over the Atlantic. The skill, however, has large fluctuations from year to year. The analysis presented herein suggests possible impacts of ENSO, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and the AMM on the TC subseasonal predictability.

Time-Dependent Climate Effects of Eucalyptus Pellets Produced in Mozambique Used Locally or for Export

By using surplus land for biomass production, Mozambique could produce wood pellets for domestic use or export to the European market to meet increasing demand. This study investigated the time-dependent climate effects and energy balance of production and use of pellets from short rotation coppice eucalyptus cultivated on surplus land in Mozambique. Two end-users of the pellets produced were studied: power production in Mozambique and heat and power production in Sweden. A time-dependent life cycle assessment method was used, expressing climate impact as annual temperature change, which highlights the time aspect inherent in bioenergy systems by including annual greenhouse gas fluxes of both fossil and biogenic origins. The results showed an initial cooling effect of the pellet systems studied due to carbon sequestration in soil and biomass, counteracting the temperature warming effect from greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production system. The temperature cooling effect of carbon sequestration increased most in the beginning of the studied time period, while the temperature warming effect from the production system continued to increase, resulting in a net temperature warming effect over time. Local use of the pellets in Mozambique was shown to have a temperature cooling effect during a longer period (39 years) than their export and use in Sweden (27 years). Compared with fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas, eucalyptus pellets proved to be better from a climate perspective for both end-users studied.

A review of potential physical impacts on harbours in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change

The potential impact of climate change on port operations and infrastructures has received much less attention than the corresponding impact for beach systems. However, ports have always been vulnerable to weather extremes and climate change could enhance such occurrences at timescales comparable to the design lifetime of harbour engineering structures. The analysis in this paper starts with the main climatic variables affecting harbour engineering and exploitation. It continues with a review of the available projections for such variables first at global scale and then at a regional scale (Catalan coast in the western Mediterranean) as a study case for similar environments in the planet. The detailed assessment of impacts starts from downscaled projections for mean sea level and wave storms (wind not considered in the paper). This is followed by an analysis of the port operations and infrastructure performance that are relevant from a climate perspective. The key climatic factors here considered are relative sea level, wave storm features (height, period, direction and duration) and their combined effect, which is expected to produce the highest impacts. The paper ends with a discussion and some examples of analyses aiming at port adaptation to future climate change.

Framework to benchmark sustainability of biomethane supply chains: Facilitating sustainability decision making in adopting biomethane as a public transportation fuel in Western Europe

ABSTRACTThis article presents a framework from a systems’ perspective to benchmark biomethane supply chains consisting of biogas upgrading, biomethane distribution, and refilling in the context of Western Europe.Compressed biomethane is already widely adopted as a vehicle fuel, whereas liquefied biomethane is also a vialble alternative. Distribution in gas grids is a feasible option only in short distances and large scale, whereas trucks with composite swap bodies is the preferable alternative otherwise. As a whole, liquefied biomethane supply chains manifests better attributes from both climate and cost perspectives, whereas compressed biomethane supply chains imply better energy intensity.

Streamlining scenario analysis and optimization of key choices in value chains using a modular LCA approach

The environmental performance of products or services is often a result of a number of key decisions that shape their life cycles (e.g., techology choices). This paper introduces a modular LCA approach that is capable of reducing the effort involved in performing scenario analyses and optimization when several key choices along a product’s value chain lead to many alternative life cycles. The main idea is that the value chain of a product can be divided into interconnected but exchangeable modules, which together represent a full life cycle. A module is comprised of unit processes from the practitioner’s LCI database. The inputs, outputs, and system boundaries of each module can be tailored to the context of the studied system. Alternatives arise whenever multiple modules produce substitutable products. Unlike in conventional LCI databases, no copies are necessary to represent the same process with different inputs. A module-product matrix is used to store this information. It can be used as a basis for an automated scenario analysis of all alternatives or as an input to an optimization model. Our approach is illustrated in two case studies: (1) Passenger car fuel choices are modeled by 15 modules representing 33 alternative value chains for diesel, petrol, natural gas and electric cars. The automated comparison of LCA results indicates that electric mobility is often the preferable option from a climate perspective, but impacts depend strongly on the electricity source. (2) A dynamic optimization model including stocks is built from eight modules to analyze the optimal use of wood for material and energy applications. Results indicate that although direct substitution benefits are higher for energy applications, cascading use of wood can maximize environmental performance over the entire life cycle. The modular LCA approach permits an efficient modeling and comparison of alternative product life cycles, enabling practitioners to focus on key decisions. It can be applied to exploit a potential that is hidden in LCI databases, which is that they contain many specific inventories but not all useful combinations in the context of scenario analyses. The user-defined level of abstraction that is introduced through modules can be helpful in the communication of LCA results. The modular approach also facilitates the integration of LCA and optimization as well as other industrial ecology methods. An open source software is provided to enable others to apply and further develop our implementation of a modular LCA approach.

Integrating Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment with Multiobjective Optimization: A Modeling Framework.

By combining life cycle assessment (LCA) with multiobjective optimization (MOO), the life cycle optimization (LCO) framework holds the promise not only to evaluate the environmental impacts for a given product but also to compare different alternatives and identify both ecologically and economically better decisions. Despite the recent methodological developments in LCA, most LCO applications are developed upon process-based LCA, which results in system boundary truncation and underestimation of the true impact. In this study, we propose a comprehensive LCO framework that seamlessly integrates MOO with integrated hybrid LCA. It quantifies both direct and indirect environmental impacts and incorporates them into the decision making process in addition to the more traditional economic criteria. The proposed LCO framework is demonstrated through an application on sustainable design of a potential bioethanol supply chain in the UK. Results indicate that the proposed hybrid LCO framework identifies a considerable amount of indirect greenhouse gas emissions (up to 58.4%) that are essentially ignored in process-based LCO. Among the biomass feedstock options considered, using woody biomass for bioethanol production would be the most preferable choice from a climate perspective, while the mixed use of wheat and wheat straw as feedstocks would be the most cost-effective one.

Foreign Investor Protection and Climate Action: A New Price Tag for Urgent Policies

From a climate perspective, not all investment is equal. Desirable investment in clean energy needs encouragement and protection, while undesirable investment in fossil fuels needs clear policy signals to avoid further investment in destructive activities and stranding more assets. In this paper, evidence is presented on how foreign investor protection provisions in trade and investment agreements tilt the playing field in favor of entrenched incumbents and against urgent action on climate; on the potential for a massive expansion of investor-state litigation and risks to climate policy in proposed trade deals; and on key flaws in recent European Commission proposals to reform investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS).

Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective

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Introduction to Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective

Introduction to Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective

Introduction to Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective

Introduction to Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective

Impacts of Combustion Conditions and Photochemical Processing on the Light Absorption of Biomass Combustion Aerosol.

The aim was to identify relationships between combustion conditions, particle characteristics, and optical properties of fresh and photochemically processed emissions from biomass combustion. The combustion conditions included nominal and high burn rate operation and individual combustion phases from a conventional wood stove. Low temperature pyrolysis upon fuel addition resulted in "tar-ball" type particles dominated by organic aerosol with an absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) of 2.5-2.7 and estimated Brown Carbon contributions of 50-70% to absorption at the climate relevant aethalometer-wavelength (520 nm). High temperature combustion during the intermediate (flaming) phase was dominated by soot agglomerates with AAE 1.0-1.2 and 85-100% of absorption at 520 nm attributed to Black Carbon. Intense photochemical processing of high burn rate flaming combustion emissions in an oxidation flow reactor led to strong formation of Secondary Organic Aerosol, with no or weak absorption. PM1 mass emission factors (mg/kg) of fresh emissions were about an order of magnitude higher for low temperature pyrolysis compared to high temperature combustion. However, emission factors describing the absorption cross section emitted per kg of fuel consumed (m(2)/kg) were of similar magnitude at 520 nm for the diverse combustion conditions investigated in this study. These results provide a link between biomass combustion conditions, emitted particle types, and their optical properties in fresh and processed plumes which can be of value for source apportionment and balanced mitigation of biomass combustion emissions from a climate and health perspective.

Distributing asparagus: a climate perspective considering producer and consumer aspects

ABSTRACTGreenhouse gas emissions are one of the major impediments to sustainable food production and distribution. In this study, we address the climate impact of alternative distribution channels for asparagus. Since distribution always includes the transport of goods and people, we include both the producer and the consumer perspective. The product carbon footprint (PCF) was chosen to measure the climate impact. Within the study, three different distribution channels were analyzed: supermarkets, sales booths, and onsite farm shops. Our sample data implies that buying at the sales booths is the most climate-friendly way to buy for several reasons which are further explained throughout the study.

Commentary: Communicating climate complexity

Commentary: Communicating climate complexity

When Organizational Identification Elicits Moral Decision-Making: A Matter of the Right Climate

To advance current knowledge on ethical decision-making in organizations, we integrate two perspectives that have thus far developed independently: the organizational identification perspective and the ethical climate perspective. We illustrate the interaction between these perspectives in two studies (Study 1, N = 144, US sample; and Study 2, N = 356, UK sample), in which we presented participants with moral business dilemmas. Specifically, we found that organizational identification increased moral decision-making only when the organization’s climate was perceived to be ethical. In addition, we disentangle this effect in Study 2 from participants’ moral identity. We argue that the interactive influence of organizational identification and ethical climate, rather than the independent influence of either of these perspectives, is crucial for understanding moral decision-making in organizations.

Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective

Southern Africa and Southern South America have experienced recent extremes in dry and wet rainy seasons which have caused severe socio-economic damages. Selected past extreme events are here studied, to estimate how human activity has changed the risk of the occurrence of such events, by applying an event attribution approach (Stott et al., 2004)comprising global climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Our assessment shows that models' representation of mean precipitation variability over Southern South America is not adequate to make a robust attribution statement about seasonal rainfall extremes in this region. Over Southern Africa, we show that unusually dry austral summers as occurred during 2002/2003 have become more likely, whereas unusually wet austral summers like that of 1999/2000 have become less likely due to anthropogenic climate change. There is some tentative evidence that the risk of extreme high 5-day precipitation totals (as observed in 1999/2000) have increased in the region. These results are consistent with CMIP5 models projecting a general drying trend over SAF during December–January–February (DJF) but also an increase in atmospheric moisture availability to feed heavy rainfall events when they do occur. Bootstrapping the confidence intervals of the fraction of attributable risk has demonstrated estimates of attributable risk are very uncertain, if the events are very rare. The study highlights some of the challenges in making an event attribution study for precipitation using seasonal precipitation and extreme 5-day precipitation totals and considering natural drivers such as ENSO in coupled ocean–atmosphere models.

Remote sensing of drought: Progress, challenges and opportunities

AbstractThis review surveys current and emerging drought monitoring approaches using satellite remote sensing observations from climatological and ecosystem perspectives. We argue that satellite observations not currently used for operational drought monitoring, such as near‐surface air relative humidity data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder mission, provide opportunities to improve early drought warning. Current and future satellite missions offer opportunities to develop composite and multi‐indicator drought models. While there are immense opportunities, there are major challenges including data continuity, unquantified uncertainty, sensor changes, and community acceptability. One of the major limitations of many of the currently available satellite observations is their short length of record. A number of relevant satellite missions and sensors (e.g., the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) provide only a decade of data, which may not be sufficient to study droughts from a climate perspective. However, they still provide valuable information about relevant hydrologic and ecological processes linked to this natural hazard. Therefore, there is a need for models and algorithms that combine multiple data sets and/or assimilate satellite observations into model simulations to generate long‐term climate data records. Finally, the study identifies a major gap in indicators for describing drought impacts on the carbon and nitrogen cycle, which are fundamental to assessing drought impacts on ecosystems.

Goal Development Theories and the Use of Terminal Goals in Organizational Goal Setting

Corporate goals are generally established to provide guidance and direction for employees and managers to focus organizational efforts. A review of existing literature and theories about approaches to goal development are used to explore how goals that have a finite target may have an impact on the organizational climate and employee perspectives. A proposed model is offered which describes how the type of goal may have an effect on employees’ commitment to the organization, expectations of reward, and employment transitions.

Can mountain glacier melting explains the GRACE-observed mass loss in the southeast Tibetan Plateau: From a climate perspective?

The southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP) includes the majority of monsoonal temperate glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA), which is an important source of water for the upper reaches of several large Asian river systems. Climatic change and variability has substantial impacts on cryosphere and hydrological processes in the SETP. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravimetry observations between 2003 and 2009 suggest that there was an average mass loss rate of −5.99±2.78Gigatonnes (Gt)/yr in this region. Meanwhile, the hydrological data by model calculations from the GLDAS/Noah and CPC are used to estimate terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with a slight negative trend of about −0.3Gt/yr. The recent studies (Kääb et al., 2012; Gardner et al., 2013) reported the thinning rates of mountain glaciers in HMA based on the satellite laser altimetry, and an approximate estimation of the glacier mass budget in the SETP was 4.69±2.03Gt/yr during 2003–2009. This estimate accounted for a large proportion (~78.3%) of the difference between the GRACE TWS and model-calculated TWS changes. To better understand the cause of sharp mass loss existing in the SETP, the correlations between key climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) and the GRACE TWS changes are examined at different timescales between 2003 and 2011. The results show that precipitation is the leading factors of abrupt, seasonal and multi-year undulating signals of GRACE TWS anomaly time series, but with weak correlations with the inter-annual trend and annual mass budget of GRACE TWS. In contrast, the annual mean temperature is tightly associated with the annual net mass budget (r=0.81, p<0.01), which indirectly suggests that the GRACE-observed mass loss in the SETP may be highly related to glacial processes.