Climate Patterns Research Articles

Geographic and ecological effects on species richness of liverworts worldwide

Liverworts are one of the oldest lineages of the extant land plants but the geographic patterns and ecological determinants of their species richness have not yet been studied at a global scale until now. Here, using a comprehensive global database, we find that regional species richness of liverworts in general 1) shows a clear latitudinal diversity pattern, 2) is highest in mountains, presumably reflecting the effects of habitat heterogeneity and the occurrence of cloud forest, 3) is more strongly influenced by contemporary climate than by climate change during the Quaternary, 4) is more strongly affected by precipitation‐related than by temperature‐related variables, reflecting the poikilohydric nature of liverworts and hence their water‐dependence, and 5) is more strongly affected by climate extremes than by climate seasonality. However, we find regional deviations from these general patterns, especially in the Southern Hemisphere where the distinct arrangement of land masses leads to different climatic patterns and thus climate–species richness relationships. Compared with other major land plant lineages, liverworts show the same importance of precipitation‐related factors as ferns, whereas in angiosperms temperature also plays an important role, reflecting the different physiological adaptations of these groups to drought and cold stress, and providing insights into the different evolutionary pathways taken by these lineages.

Accelerated Decline in Vegetation Resilience on the Tibetan Plateau

ABSTRACTThe ability of ecosystems to resist and recover from external disturbances is declining due to climate change, increased frequency of disasters, and intensified human activities. Global vegetation resilience is considered to be at risk of being lost. The sensitive and fragile Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced changes in climate and management patterns over the past five decades, but due to the complexity of defining resilience, there is still no unified understanding of the spatial patterns and long time‐series trends of resilience on the TP. In this study, we introduce the method based on critical slowing down, making it possible to clarify the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of resilience on the TP. The results show low resilience on the northeastern and southwestern edges of the TP and in the Three River Source region. The area experiencing resilience loss is approximately 1.16–1.44 times larger than the area of gain. Vegetation resilience on the TP has exhibited a declining trend, with the rate of decline after 2014 being more than double that of the preceding period. Factors such as elevation, vegetation type, and hydrothermal condition significantly influence the spatial and temporal patterns of resilience. These findings improve our understanding of vegetation resilience on the TP and its ecosystem vulnerability. We also recommend that ecological restoration efforts be maintained and regularly assessed.

Revolutionizing Precision Agriculture: Advanced Seed Prescription Generation and Cloud Infrastructure

This article explores the revolutionary impact of advanced seed prescription generation engines and cloud infrastructure on precision agriculture. It delves into the technical intricacies of enhancing seed prescription systems through cutting-edge data pipelines and scalable cloud platforms. The article discusses how these sophisticated systems analyze various factors such as soil composition, topography, historical yield data, and climate patterns to determine optimal seeding rates and patterns with unprecedented accuracy. It highlights the challenges faced in implementing these systems, including scalability, data processing, reliability, and monitoring, and presents innovative cloud-based solutions to address these issues. The benefits of these advancements, including improved efficiency, enhanced accuracy, scalability, reliability, and cost-effectiveness, are examined, along with their potential to reshape the global food production landscape and promote sustainable farming practices.

The Regulation of Temperature Fluctuations and Energy Consumption in Buildings Using Phase Change Material–Gypsum Boards in Summer

This study examined the thermal performance of Comfortboard23, a commercial gypsum board from Knauf infused with phase change material (PCM). Structural characterization using XRD and SEM confirmed the presence of microencapsulated PCM within the gypsum matrix. The study does not provide a direct comparison between Comfortboard23 and other PCM-integrated gypsum boards on the market. This is a limitation of the research. A comprehensive comparison would involve testing multiple products under identical conditions, and evaluating factors such as thermal performance, cost-effectiveness, durability, and ease of installation. Thermal characterization involved a novel low-scale thermal chamber to measure U-value, thermal conductivity, heat storage capacity, and dynamic thermal response. Results showed incorporating PCM decreased the U-value by 2% compared to standard gypsum boards. Additionally, PCM inclusion increased heat storage capacity by around 45% and improved dynamic thermal characteristics by decreasing thermal stability coefficient from 0.92 to 0.76 and increasing thermal lag from 0.27 to 0.49 h. The 45% increase in heat storage capacity of Comfortboard23 could lead to a 10–20% reduction in heating and cooling energy consumption, improved thermal comfort, and potential HVAC downsizing. Exact benefits depend on climate, building design, and occupancy patterns, necessitating further research in diverse real-world settings. The findings demonstrate Comfortboard23’s potential for enhancing thermal energy storage in buildings, contributing to energy savings, improved thermal comfort, and reduced temperature fluctuations across varying daily temperatures. Overall, the study highlights the promise of Comfortboard23 as an energy-efficient PCM-integrated building material.

THE IMPACT OF SEED SIZE ON INITIAL DROUGHT STRESS RESILIENCE AND YIELD IN WHEAT CULTIVATION

Wheat yield is affected severely by drought in this era of changing climate patterns, including high temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Drought is among the most challenging environmental stressors, limiting wheat cultivars' growth, productivity, and performance. The current study was conducted during the rabi season 2022 at the Research Area, Department of Agronomy, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan. Therefore, the present study evaluated the potential of diverse seed sizes to advance wheat crop growth, development, and yield when subjected to different drought levels. The study comprised two experiments. The first was a lab experiment that included different drought levels (DL), DL0: 0.0 bar, DL1: -2 bar, DL2: -4 bar, and DL3: -6 bar (drought levels were induced by solutions of PEG-6000 at different concentrations) and three wheat seed size classes, i.e., bold grain (>38 g), medium grain (<33 g), and small grain (<25 g). In the field experiment, drought stress levels were DL0 (regular irrigation), DL1 (first irrigation at 30 days), DL2 (first irrigation at 45 days), and DL3 (first irrigation at 60 days). Seed sizes included W1 (bold >38 g), W2 (medium <33 g), and W3 (small <25 g). Drought severity increased with DL1 to DL3. The outcomes of the field experiment revealed that varying levels of drought stress and seed size classes significantly affected parameters such as emergence time, growth traits, biomass allocation, tiller count, plant height, and grain and biomass outcomes. Bold seeds contributed to higher biomass and grain yield, while severe drought decreased yields. Notably, the Harvest Index was affected, indicating bold seeds allocate more biomass to grains. In conclusion, proper seed size selection, favouring bold seeds, can enhance resilience to drought, benefiting wheat cultivation in water-scarce regions.

Linking land use and precipitation changes to water quality changes in Lake Victoria using earth observation data

Due to the continued increase in land use changes and changing climatic patterns in the Lake Victoria basin, understanding the impacts of these changes on the water quality of Lake Victoria is imperative for safeguarding the integrity of the freshwater ecosystem. Thus, we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of land cover, precipitation, and water quality changes in the Lake Victoria basin between 2000 and 2022 using global satellite products. Focusing on chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and turbidity (TUR) in Lake Victoria, we used statistical metrics (correlation coefficient, trend analysis, change budget, and intensity analysis) to understand the relationship between land use and precipitation changes in the basin with changes in Chl-a and TUR at two major pollution hotspots on the lake, i.e., Winam Gulf and Inner Murchison Bay (IMB). Results show that the Chl-a and TUR concentrations in the Winam gulf increase with increases in precipitation. Through increases in precipitation, the erosion risks are increased and transport of nutrients from land to the lake system, promoting algal growth and turbidity. In the IMB, Chl-a and TUR concentrations decrease with an increase in precipitation, possibly due to dilution, but peak during moderate rainfall. Interestingly, changes in land use and land cover (LULC) at 5-year intervals showed no substantial correlation with water quality changes at selected hotspots even though a broader LULC change analysis over the past two decades indicated a notable 300% increase in built-up areas across the Lake Victoria basin. These findings underscore the dominant influence of precipitation changes over LULC changes on the water quality of Lake Victoria for the selected hotspot areas.

A comprehensive review of climate information systems in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Kenya for enhanced decision-making process

The reality of climate change has had far-reaching effects on climate and weather patterns globally. High carbon emissions have resulted in wildfires causing migration and death from natural disasters such as droughts, floods, and strong winds. Climate change has also led to reduced crop and livestock farming yields, and worsening incidences of hunger and famine. The use of climate information systems (CIS) in the Arid and Semi-Arid regions of Kenya has not been extensively reviewed. This study reviews the use of CIS in Kenya's Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) to improve decision-making and adapt to climate change. We reviewed past and present research on Kenya's ASAL counties’ smallholder farmers’ CIS use. National and international attempts to develop early warning systems through CIS to help stakeholders and end users make farm-level decisions were reviewed. Kenya leads Eastern African countries in emphasizing CIS to reduce climate change's effects on sustainable agriculture. In ASAL countries, the gap between CIS information and its applicability for smallholder farmers’ farm-level decisions, low finance, weak infrastructure, and limited capability are major issues. Limited indigenous knowledge integration and the absence of regular updates and end-user co-development were also noted. Despite these obstacles, CIS can improve decision-making, catastrophe risk management, and socioeconomic growth in these places. Tailored CIS solutions are essential to address the specific needs of smallholder farmers in ASAL regions. Improved coordination and leveraging newer technologies are crucial for effective CIS implementation.

Penerapan Analisis Data Panel Pada Suhu Udara Terhadap Perubahan Iklim Curah Hujan di Kota Padang

Climate is the average weather conditions that prevail over an extended period in a particular region. The complex climate system, comprising components such as the atmosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere, generates climate variations among different areas. Climate change has potential impacts such as changes in rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, and sea level rise. Extreme weather, prolonged droughts, and heatwaves can endanger both the environment and human beings.This article aims to assist in predicting future climate patterns to prepare for their impacts using panel data analysis. A panel data regression model is employed to assess the influence of rainfall and air temperature on climate change in Kota Padang from 2018 to 2022. The analysis reveals a significant influence of air temperature, estimated at 0.08, on climate change in Kota Padang during this period. These findings provide a basis for developing mitigation and adaptation strategies to address climate challenges in the region and offer valuable insights for government policies in facing future climate-related issues.

Cocoa Farmers’ Perceptions of Drought and Adaptive Strategies in the Ghana–Togo Transboundary Cocoa Belt

This study investigated the perception of drought by cocoa farmers and explored the effectiveness of adaptive strategies (ASs) used in smallholding farms in the transboundary region between Ghana and Togo. Drought significantly threatens cocoa production in this region, affecting farmers’ livelihoods and cocoa supply chains. This study used a multistage sampling approach, which involved surveys with questionnaires administered to 330 cocoa farmers throughout the study area, along with on-site observations. Statistical analysis included binary logistic and Poisson regression models to explore the relationship between farmer socioeconomic characteristics and adaptation practices. The findings revealed that cocoa farmers in the region have a nuanced understanding of drought, attributed to changing climatic patterns and unsustainable land management practices such as deforestation. To mitigate its impacts, farmers employ a variety of ASs, including investment in farm management, soil management, and intercropping with crop diversification. Furthermore, socioeconomic factors, including age, formal education, household size, land tenure right, adaptation cost assessment, and an underestimation of self-efficacy, were shown to affect the choice in the AS. Among the ASs adopted, only farm management practices (weeding, pruning, fertilizer application, etc.) significantly improved yield. This study contributes to understanding drought as a critical issue for cocoa farmers and the adaptation practices used by smallholder cocoa farmers. Given that among the strategies adopted, only farm management practices, also known as good agricultural practices (GAPs), significantly improves yield, this study recommends well-designed and innovative packages of sustainable farm management based on farm and owner characteristics. These include irrigation schemes, timely soil fertilizer monitoring and supply, and the provision of drought-resistant varieties along with technical itineraries. Additional interventions require drought emergency responses, with other factors such as education and financial support mechanisms expected to improve farmers’ timely decision-making to adapt and improve cocoa production resilience to drought episodes in international transboundary regions with complex governance structures.

Shifts in geographic vulnerability of US corn crops under different climate change scenarios: corn flea beetle (Chaetocnema pulicaria) and Stewart’s Wilt (Pantoea stewartii) bacterium

Abstract Changing climate patterns will likely affect insect pressure on many agricultural crops. Mild winters may decrease the number of insects that experience reduced fecundity or that are killed during hard freezes. This may result in larger populations in subsequent years and allow for range expansion. Direct effects from pests are compounded by indirect effects, such as crop damage resulting from insect-vectored diseases. Corn flea beetle (Chaetocnema pulicaria) infestations have both direct and indirect effects on crops. This beetle is a pest on all types of corn in the United States, including sweet corn and grain corn (sometimes referred to as dent corn). It is responsible for damage to plant foliage and also serves as the primary overwintering vector for Pantoea stewartii bacterium, which causes Stewart’s Wilt, a disease that can severely impact the health and productivity of corn. Evidence suggests that warmer winters will contribute to a geographic range expansion for the corn flea beetle. Here we show the projected northward expansion of economically damaging crop losses caused by Stewart’s Wilt: (A) from 1980 to 2011, (B) projected by mid-century, and (C) projected by end-century. Our work suggests that climate change and associated increasing winter temperatures in the United States will lead to a dramatic increase in the probability of severe damage from corn flea beetle across the United States, including the Corn Belt. Predicted increases in pest and disease pressure will have negative ramifications for corn production and are likely to exacerbate issues associated with specific management tactics, such as pesticide application.

Baleen stable isotopes reveal climate-driven behavioural shifts in North Atlantic fin whales

Climate variability impacts the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems and can trigger behavioural responses in organisms. We investigated whether such variability modulates diet and migration in the North Atlantic fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus). To reconstruct the dietary and migratory behaviours over time, we conducted stable isotope analysis of nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) along baleen plates from 29 fin whales sampled off southwestern (SW) Iceland in summer. We estimated a baleen growth rate of 16.1 ± 2.5 cm per year from the stable isotope oscillations observed along the baleens. We also assigned a deposition date for each baleen segment, thus obtaining isotopic sequential time series. We then assessed the potential association of these time series with the main climate patterns of the North Atlantic basin. Baleen δ15N and δ13C values are associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During high AMO and low NAO periods, which tend to decrease krill abundance, there is an increase in both the mean and standard deviation of baleen δ15N values, suggesting that fin whales shift to higher trophic resources and expand their dietary niche. Additionally, high AMO periods, which relate to positive temperature anomalies, lead to a decrease in baleen δ13C values, suggesting that fin whales adjust their migratory routes and destinations towards higher latitudes. Significant variation in isotopic niche width between years also reflected these dietary and migratory behavioural shifts. This highlights the plasticity of the North Atlantic fin whale behaviour, a trait likely to strengthen the resilience of the species within the current context of rapid and intense climate variability.

Threat Severity and Threat Susceptibility Are Significantly Correlated with Climate Distress in Australian Mothers

Climate change presents a critical global crisis, characterized by rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and shifting climate patterns. Vulnerable populations bear a disproportionate share of these impacts, with women at heightened risk due to unequal access to resources, decision-making power, and social roles. Postpartum women specifically face further unique challenges as they strive to protect their children, amplifying the psychological toll of climate change. The current study explores climate distress in a sample of 101 postpartum women in Australia (Mage = 31.14 years), whose youngest child was (on average) 5 months of age, examining factors associated with their psychological responses to climate threats. Correlational analyses reveal that perceptions of threat severity (r = 0.621, p ≤ 0.01) and susceptibility (r = 0.695, p ≤ 0.01) are strongly linked to climate distress. These findings highlight the need to further investigate the distinct psychological pathways climate-related anxiety operates through in postpartum women. The study underscores the importance of targeted interventions to support this vulnerable population as they face increasing climate-related stressors.

Eco-physiological approach to assessing the functional state of workers in geological prospecting expeditions during meridian movement between mid-latitudes and the Arctic region

BACKGROUND: The current challenge lies in defining the unique characteristics of compensatory and adaptive mechanisms formation, as well as the development of healthcare technologies for various forms of work in Arctic region conditions. AIM: To study associations between climate patterns and physiological responses to daily fluctuations in meteorological factors. Specifically, we aimed to investigate how these factors impact the cardiovascular system and psychophysiological well-being of workers during geological prospecting expeditions along the meridian travel between Tyumen (57° 09’ N) and Yamal (71° 11ʹ N). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 115 men aged 20–40 years in mid-latitude conditions (baseline data) and during occupational relocation to the Arctic region comprised the sample. The examination included recording key indicators of the cardiovascular system (heart rate, blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, pulse pressure), ECG in standard unipolar and augmented leads, and psychophysiological assessments (evaluation of trait and state anxiety, stress diagnostics, regulation of self-control, and emotional lability). Additionally, to calculate the natural and climatic contrast of regions in Western Siberia, meteorological data and geomagnetic activity indicators were analyzed based on eight daily measurements over 12 months across 11 years using a unified system of meteorological station indicators in Tyumen and Kharasavey. RESULTS: The cardiovascular system experiences desynchronosis during meridian movement from middle latitudes to the Arctic region. This condition is influenced by the interregional climatic contrast and the differences in daily rhythm characteristics of meteorological data between the initial and final destinations. The interaction within the system of meteorological rhythms plays an important role in these variations. CONCLUSION: The established associations within the ‘meteorhythms–biorhythms’ system underscore the necessity for developing regional norms for chronophysiological parameters of a healthy individual under specific environmental and climatic conditions. It also highlights the importance of dynamic monitoring of deviations in these parameters during occupational relocations between mid-latitudes and the Arctic region across different seasons. This approach is essential for the effective monitoring of maladaptive disorders and for predicting the potential development of pathologies.

Examining the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Products in the Province of Jawzjan (Case Study: Certain Villages in Sheberghan City)

A region's weather and climate patterns are impacted by climate change over an extended period of time. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, rising sea levels and other modifications to meteorological conditions are some of these changes. Numerous facets of existence, including the environment, economy, and human communities, may be significantly impacted by climate change. Significant repercussions of climate change are possible, particularly in the agricultural sector. The production of food crops may be impacted by these changes because agricultural goods are dependent on local climate and weather. Pests and plant diseases may also become more prevalent due to climate change. Accordingly, higher temperatures and changed precipitation patterns can foster the growth of pests and illnesses, which will lower agricultural yields. Investigating how climate change affects agricultural products in Sheberghan City, Jawzjan Province, is the goal of this study. A questionnaire was used in fieldwork to perform this study. Six communities inside Sheberghan City—Toka, Qowchin, Jalalabad, Seshanba, Nokar Abad, and Afghan Tapa—were given 100 questionnaires in all. Four different types of questionnaires were produced and designed for the survey portion of this study. Of the 100 responders, 26 worked as farmers, 37 as gardeners, 8 as teachers, and 29 as traders in agricultural products. Using the SPSS26 program, the research was analyzed. The results showed that agricultural goods are significantly impacted by climate change, highlighting the significance of agriculture and agricultural products in the economy. The research findings indicate that the utilization of contemporary technology, such as smart irrigation systems and smart systems, can be one of the elements in growing agricultural products, and that the development of climate-adaptive agricultural methods can boost agricultural products. Farmers' interest can also be raised by government encouragement and assistance. The general conclusion that can be drawn from looking at the aforementioned elements is that agricultural products have been impacted by climate change and the creation of farmers' techniques for adapting to it.

Reassessing water resource challenges in a changing climate in the Kagera transboundary river basin, Tanzania

The dynamic shifts in climatic patterns, particularly alterations in precipitation, have significantly impacted water resource availability and accessibility. These climate-induced changes affect hydrological processes, encompassing runoff, groundwater replenishment, water demand, and biophysical patterns within river basins. This study seeks to unravel the multifaceted implications encountered and challenges in water resource management within the river basin. It employed a survey-based approach for data collection, including Key informant interviews (KI), consultation methods and documentary reviews. The study utilized Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and Microsoft Excel for quantitative analysis and thematic synthesis for qualitative insights, including local community perspectives. The findings reveal substantial fluctuations in precipitation, protracted droughts, severe flooding, and other climatic extremes. The observed annual mean rainfall of 832 mm, with a standard deviation of 248, a standard error of 361, and a skewness of −945, accentuates the pronounced variability in mean precipitation, exhibiting a declining trend indicative of climatic shifts (R2 = 0.1797 and P = 0.002). The challenges are limited access to hydrological and meteorological data, undermining prediction accuracy, infrastructure planning, and response strategies for water resource allocation and management. The absence of unified approaches, influenced by the politics of riparian states, feeble coordination, conflicting sectoral policies, and ambiguous priorities, hinders effective transboundary water resource management. The study addresses these complexities and advocates for institutionalizing robust water management strategies that capitalize on existing resources and foster innovative capacities among critical stakeholders. Central to these efforts is harmonizing and enforcing policies, regulations, and laws governing water use, coupled with a concerted focus on inclusive governance to ensure the sustainability of water resource management. Such effort entails synchronized strategies, programs, plans, and livelihood practices underpinned by active stakeholder involvement in pivotal facets of water resources management.

Inter- and intra-annual carbon isotope fluctuations in Pinus sylvestris L. tree rings whole wood and cellulose in north-eastern Lithuania

In temperate regions trees typically exhibit growth sensitivity to climatic conditions during the growth season. Annual tree ring growth increments correlate with a variety of environmental factors. As an index of water use efficiency, δ13C is a preferred proxy to allow accurate interpretation of environmental factors critical for the tree growth, including changes in climate patterns, variation in the ambient temperature and precipitation. We assumed that isotopic differences within individual tree rings are likely to produce seasonal isotope fluctuations in the chronology that might be interpreted as response to environmental impacts. To verify the assumption, we measured δ13C in annual tree rings of Pinus Sylvestris L. split into 13 intra-annual segments each and checked δ13C correlations with temperature, precipitation, the number of sunshine hours and relative air humidity. For the investigation, we chose a site in north-eastern Lithuania, Zarasai, located in boreal latitude and remote from industrial pollution sources. The methodology of the research was based on high coherence of δ13C chronologies measured in the whole wood and α-cellulose extracted by means of two different methods. The experiment produced strong δ13C correlations with hydrometeorological parameters, especially in the earlywood formed in June

Effect of temperature on seasonal wind power and energy potential estimates in Nordic climates

AbstractA major obstacle standing in the way of full‐scale adoption of renewable energy sources is their intermittency and seasonal variability. To better understand the power generation dynamics, the effect of air density due to temperature on power and energy generation figures was modelled. The model uses historical ERA5 data and considers changes in weather patterns in a subarctic climate where seasonal changes are most pronounced. The power generation figures of using a mean and a dynamic air density value were compared and the results show that power generation estimates may be under‐ and overestimated by on average 5% up to 10% in winter and summer, respectively. This can have implications for the sizing of power transmission infrastructure and energy storage in both on‐grid and off‐grid applications as well as power availability. The topic is highly relevant in the Nordic countries where roughly 10% of new global added wind capacity is installed annually.

Advances in understanding physical and biological controls on eggs and larval distribution in Pacific fisheries: A review

The early stages of fish, comprising eggs and larvae, are exceptionally fragile and sensitive to environmental dynamics and climate change. Pacific Ocean (PO) currents play an important role in shaping the distribution of marine organisms, influencing global climate patterns, heat distribution, coastal temperatures, and nutrient redistribution. These currents reveal significant changes within the climate system. Their variability across different timescales can be attributed to the complex interplay of physical forces. These currents are subjected to diverse anthropogenic factors, exerting detrimental effects on the dispersal of fish larvae. Furthermore, climate change variables, including alterations in tropical PO temperature associated with the ENSO cycle, Atlantic Nino modes influencing equatorial Atlantic temperature, changes in ocean salinity, polar ice cap melting, increasing greenhouse gases, marine heatwaves, and fluctuations in subsurface flows, directly impact the distribution, abundance, and species composition of early life stages. Major Pacific fisheries, such as those targeting Pacific sardines, saury, and anchovies, undergo population booms and declines due to significant alterations in the current dynamics of currents and fronts within the PO. The anticipated intensification of the ENSO cycle, characterized by more frequent and severe El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cold) events as a result of climate change, is expected to significantly impact the early developmental stages of important commercial fish stocks regularly. This review synthesizes the current understanding of the physical and biological parameters driving changes in ocean currents and their implications for early fish dispersion, emphasizing the critical need for research in this area to inform global conservation efforts, fisheries management, and food security.

For resilient rural shorelines: reviewing Nature-based Solutions for flood risk reduction in small coastal communities

Coastal flood risk poses a serious, existential threat to shoreline populations around the world both now and in the future. Unsurprisingly, global decision makers are considering their options – one of these being Nature-based Solutions – for effective disaster risk reduction which specifically targets coastal flooding. While strides have been made in the field of Nature-based Solutions for coastal flooding, much of this attention has been directed towards the urban setting, with a wealth of scholastic documentation to support this notion. The sizeable rural populations scattered throughout the world's small coastal communities, meanwhile, have been largely neglected in academic literature. Without this information, it is impossible to properly capture the full potential of Nature-based Solutions in (global) flood risk modelling endeavours or understand their role in the future of equitable disaster risk reduction. In light of this gap, we have reviewed the limited amount of existing literature from around the world involving the implementation and effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions in small coastal communities. We analysed 28 peer-reviewed studies to gather common themes and insights about the barriers and opportunities unique to these rural shorelines. Takeaways we have identified include a near consistent scarcity of resources (e.g., technical, financial, institutional) to implement disaster risk reduction measures; an abundance of space and opportune land use regimes which make Nature-based Solutions a highly plausible option; amplified nature contributions to people leading to larger benefits reaped from investments into Nature-based Solutions; and the presence of local knowledge regarding societal norms, climate patterns, and ecosystem capabilities. We argue that these four common themes point to the fact that more attention must be given to coastal flooding-focused Nature-based Solutions in the rural setting. As such, we present this collation as a starting point for future projects of similar setting and scope. We also recommend improving benefit-cost analysis methods as well as including local knowledge and other perspectives in future global assessments of coastal flood risk.

Long-term stability in protected-areas? A vision from American/New World amphibians

Protected areas (PA) have proven to be one of the best ways to conserve biodiversity against environmental changes. Amphibians are considered the most threatened group, with habitat loss due to deforestation identified as their major threat. Here, we assessed for each PA of the American continent: 1) amphibian’s occurrence (Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) vs. International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) data); 2) temperature velocity and estimated the climate residence time, and using the latest models of the land future use; 3) we estimated the changes of natural vs. modified cover in three future scenarios. Amphibian occurrence showed differences between databases, while GBIF data shows that 52 % of the amphibian species occurring in the continent are in PA, based on IUCN data, 85 % are protected. Results from climate change show a low pace of climate velocity during the last century that is maintained in the green scenario (SSP126). However, change in temperature increases in rate in the rest of the scenarios, with scenario SSP58 showing the highest velocity of temperature change. Future estimates of residence times in PA show that lower levels as emission scenarios tend to be higher. These results are worrisome since climate lag, specifically temperature increase over the PA will probably affect amphibian communities as shown in previous studies. Changes in climate patterns have a direct—mostly negative—impact on amphibians’ ability to disperse and reproduce. The results of land use change were unexpected, since the categories showed minimal changes. However, the data on urbanization changes do not seem to be reflecting the trends of other databases, which may be causing artifacts in the comparisons in the future models of land use. Further research will be necessary to evaluate the extent of similarities and differences in future projections of land use including urbanization and human population between different databases.