Climatic Oscillations Research Articles

Emergence of a climate oscillation in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming

Emergence of a climate oscillation in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming

Mechanisms of rapid plant community change from the Miocene Succor Creek flora, Oregon and Idaho (USA).

The fossil record of the U.S. Pacific Northwest preserves many Middle Miocene floras with potential for revealing long-term climate-vegetation dynamics during the Miocene Climatic Optimum. However, the possibility of strong, eccentricity-paced climate oscillations and concurrent, intense volcanism may obscure the signature of prevailing, long-term Miocene climate change. To test the hypothesis that volcanic disturbance drove Middle Miocene vegetation dynamics, high-resolution, stratigraphic pollen records and other paleobotanical data from nine localities of the Sucker Creek Formation were combined with sedimentological and geochemical evidence of disturbance within an updated chronostratigraphic framework based on new U-Pb zircon ages from tuffs. The new ages establish a refined, minimum temporal extent of the Sucker Creek Formation, ~15.8 to ~14.8 Ma, and greatly revise the local and regional chronostratigraphic correlations of its dispersed outcrop belt. Our paleoecological analysis at one ~15.52 Ma locality reveals two abrupt shifts in pollen spectra coinciding with the deposition of thick ash-flow tuffs, wherein vegetation dominated by Cupressaceae/Taxaceae, probably representing a Glyptostrobus oregonensis swamp, and upland conifers was supplanted by early-successional forests with abundant Alnus and Betula. Another ephemeral shift from Cupressaceae/Taxaceae swamp taxa in favor of upland conifers Pinus and Tsuga correlates with a shift from low-Ti shale to high-Ti claystone, suggesting a link between altered surface hydrology and vegetation. In total, three rapid vegetation shifts coincide with ash-flow tuffs and are attributed to volcanic disturbance. Longer-term variability between localities, spanning ~1 Myr of the Miocene Climatic Optimum, is chiefly attributed to eccentricity-paced climate change. Overall, Succor Creek plant associations changed frequently over ≤105 years timespans, reminiscent of Quaternary vegetation records. Succor Creek stratigraphic palynology suggests that numerous and extensive collection of stratigraphically controlled samples is necessary to understand broader vegetation trends through time.

Effects of Oceanographic Conditions on Fishery Distribution: A Case Study of Chub Mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in Northeastern Taiwan

Changes in oceanographic conditions can affect species distribution in marine habitats. Global climate change may negatively influence the oceanographic factor–species distribution relationship. Here, we assessed the influence of oceanographic conditions on chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) distribution in northeastern Taiwan by constructing and using a habitat ensemble model incorporating chub mackerel fishery, climatic oscillation, and oceanography data. Our results indicated that the chub mackerel catch was mainly influenced by the Western Pacific Oscillation. Moreover, sea-surface height and mixed-layer depth exerted the most and least significant effects on chub mackerel distribution, respectively. The chub mackerel catch rate peaked in the study area with a sea-surface temperature of 29°C, sea-surface chlorophyll of 0.25 mg/m3, sea-surface salinity of 33.7 psu, and SSH of 0.575 m. Chub mackerel was the most widely distributed in the area between 25°N, 120.5°E and 26.2°N, 121.5°E. Our findings can be used to develop critical adaptation plans for managing chub mackerel fisheries in the northeastern waters of Taiwan. Considering changing climate conditions globally, the incorporation of this knowledge into managerial strategies may aid decision-makers in protecting not only other ocean fisheries but also individuals dependent on them.

Antimony Flux and Transport Dynamics in a Mining‐Impacted River Is Linked to Catchment Hydrodynamics and Climate Oscillations

ABSTRACTWe investigate how seasonal flow variations and a climatic regime that is dominated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence Sb flux dynamics in an Australian river impacted by mining. Sampling (n = 496) spans a hydrologically complex 7‐year period of drought, bushfires and floods from 2016 to 2023, during which 17% of samples exceeded the Sb drinking water guideline concentration (3 μg L−1). Aqueous Sb (SbAq) concentration–discharge (C–Q) relationships are non‐continuous/non‐linear across the flow range, with chemodynamic behaviour at moderate flows reflecting hydrological connection to the primary Sb‐source area combined with variable dilution. In contrast chemostatic behaviour occurred at extreme low and high flows, reflecting hydrological disconnection from the source area and persistent dilution, respectively. SbAq was significantly positively correlated (p < 0.01, Spearman's ρ = 0.58) with a Q index representing the proportional contribution of sub‐catchment flow from the mineral‐field area, suggesting sufficient localised rainfall in the Sb mining‐impacted sub‐catchment contributes to downstream peaks in SbAq concentrations. Aqueous and particulate Sb (SbP) annual loads (La) during the study period spanned 24–5174 and 1.2–2820 kg, respectively and were strongly flow dependant with extreme interannual variability reflecting dry and wet years. We extrapolate daily load‐daily discharge (Ld–Qd) relationships for SbAq and SbP to estimate Ld over a 53‐year period (1970–2023) of continuous Q data (mean total Sb La = 1865 kg ± [SE] 247). Positive correlations between the annual Southern Oscillation Index and both Sb La (p < 0.05) and proportional SbP La over 53 years suggests ENSO fluctuations influence annual Sb transport dynamics. Upstream SbP load estimates correspond with downstream estimates of coastal floodplain sedimentary Sb mass, with approximately 10%–45% of the estimated SbP exported downstream since approximately 1880 accumulated on the Macleay coastal floodplain. Data suggest at current rates of export, complete flushing‐leaching of mine tailings‐derived Sb from the upper Macleay catchment may take in the order approximately 600–1000 years.

Climatic oscillation based 3-dimensional drought risk assessment over India

Climatic oscillation based 3-dimensional drought risk assessment over India

Tufas record significant imprints of climate and tectonic activity over the past 600 ka: Evidence from a multi-story wedge in Northwest Africa

The Quaternary Period climatic oscillations, typically those driven by Milankovitch cycles, have significantly left profound imprints in the geological records. However, the potential of terrestrial archives, particularly tufa deposits, as archives for Quaternary climate remain relatively underexplored. This study aims to contribute to filling the gap in a data-scarce region (Northwest Africa) through investigating Middle Pleistocene to Holocene groundwater-fed tufa deposits, using fieldwork-based, process-oriented facies analysis and advanced 230Th technique. Eight stratigraphic sections were measured, identifying thirteen sedimentary facies grouped into four facies associations representing specific depositional settings: (i) fluvio-lacustrine and palustrine tufa, (ii) barrage cascade tufa with buttresses, (iii) tufa in channels with pools, and (iv) tufa in shallow braided channels with free-flowing water. The depositional system comprises a single multi-story wedge of vertically and laterally stacked barrage-cascade dammed-area systems.Our Integrated analysis revealed significant tufa growth during MIS 14, with implications for a warm and humid MISs 15–13 ‘extra-long interglacial’, consistent with multiple paleoclimate records. Such conditions would have supported late Acheulean hominin occupation and the emergence of Early Modern Humans in the region around 300 ka. The findings also highlight the possible impact of the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE) on tufa deposition patterns, likely through CO2-climate feedbacks, underscoring the sensitivity of tufa records to global climatic changes. Moreover, the study outcomes suggest significant regional tectonic activity during the late Middle Pleistocene, causing counter-clockwise rotation and northward tilting of MIS 14 deposits. The associated seismic events may have modified the hydrogeological budget and, by extension, altered the balance between tufa aggradation and degradation. The rotation about the vertical axis suggests a bookshelf faulting mechanism driven by regional left-lateral strike-slip tectonics. Differential karstic dissolution and tectonic forces would have further contributed to deposit tilting. The study highlights the potential of tufa as a valuable terrestrial archive for understanding Quaternary climate dynamics and tectonic processes. Future research should aim to expand the chronological framework and further investigate the climatic and tectonic influences on tufa deposition in this data-scarce region. This can be achieved through additional 230Th dating, high-resolution stable isotope measurements on microbialites, particularly focusing on the significance of the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE) in Northwest Africa.

Impact of global environmental changes on the range contraction of Eurasian moose since the Late Pleistocene

Climatic oscillations are considered primary factors influencing the distribution of various life forms on Earth. Large species adapted to cold climates are particularly vulnerable to extinction due to the climate changes. In our study, we investigated whether the temperature increase since the Late Pleistocene and the contraction of environmental niche during the Holocene were the main factors contributing to the decreasing range of moose (Alces alces) in Europe. We also examined whether there were significant differences in environmental conditions between areas inhabited by moose in Europe and Asia, that could support the division of moose into western and eastern forms, as suggested by genetic and morphological data. We analysed environmental conditions in locations of 655 subfossil and modern moose occurrences over the past 50,000 years in Eurasia. We found that the most limiting climatic factor for the moose distribution since the Late Pleistocene was July temperature. >90 % of moose records were found in areas where the mean summer temperature was below 19 °C, with July temperatures showing over 3 times narrower interquartile range compared to January temperatures. We identified significant differences in environmental conditions between areas inhabited by the European and Asiatic moose. In Europe, the species occurred in regions with milder climates, higher primary productivity, and more frequently within forest biomes compared to Asiatic individuals. The moose range shifted more in the west-east than in the south-north direction during the Holocene climate warming in Europe. We concluded that although the area of suitable moose habitat has increased since 12–8 ka years BP, as demonstrated by environmental niche modeling, the retreat of A. alces in large areas of Europe was likely caused by anthropogenic landscape change (e.g., deforestation) and overhunting by humans during the late Holocene rather than by climate warming during the Pleistocene to Holocene transition.

Eolian-fluvial succession in the Early Cretaceous from the Ordos Basin

Cretaceous eolian deposits are widely developed in North China, among which the Lower Cretaceous eolian (erg) sedimentary strata in the Ordos Basin are the most representative. Many studies have been conducted on eolian deposits in the Ordos Basin, especially the Luohe Formation; however, there is a lack of systematic sedimentology research and the corresponding research on the evolution of sedimentary facies. Therefore, to explore the Mesozoic drought events and the systematic evolution of the sub-tropical erg zone, this study reports the fluvial–eolian sedimentary sequences of the Early Cretaceous Luohe and Yijinhuoluo Formations in the Ordos Basin. Spatially, through detailed sedimentary lithofacies and structural analysis of different outcrops, the combination law of sedimentary facies can be determined. Based on this, a three-dimensional sedimentary model of erg is reconstructed. The erg environment is divided into three sub-environments: erg margin, erg margin–centre transition and erg centre. According to the evolution of the sedimentary facies, the sedimentary evolution from the Latef Jurassic to the Early Cretaceous in the Ordos Basin is divided into five stages. The Ordos Basin has experienced the delta, erg formation, erg deposition, erg shrinkage and evaporating salt-lake stages. The vertical sedimentary evolution indicates climatic oscillation in North China from the Late Jurassic to the Early Cretaceous. Under the control of the sub-tropical high belt, the Ordos Basin experienced a hot and arid climate during the Cretaceous, forming a widely distributed erg belt in the region. During this period, a small-scale climate shock occurred under the hot and arid background, changing the sedimentary environment.

The Greenland spatial fingerprint of Dansgaard–Oeschger events in observations and models

Pleistocene Ice Ages display abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) climate oscillations that provide prime examples of Earth System tipping points-abrupt transition that may result in irreversible change. Greenland ice cores provide key records of DO climate variability, but gas-calibrated estimates of the temperature change magnitudes have been limited to central and northwest Greenland. Here, we present ice-core δ15N-N2 records from south (Dye 3) and coastal east Greenland (Renland) to calibrate the local water isotope thermometer and provide a Greenland-wide spatial characterization of DO event magnitude. We combine these data with existing records of δ18O, deuterium excess, and accumulation rates to create a multiproxy "fingerprint" of the DO impact on Greenland. Isotope-enabled climate models have skill in simulating the observational multiproxy DO event impact, and we use a series of idealized simulations with such models to identify regions of the North Atlantic that are critical in explaining DO variability. Our experiments imply that wintertime sea ice variation in the subpolar gyre, rather than the commonly invoked Nordic Seas, is both a sufficient and a necessary condition to explain the observed DO impacts in Greenland, whatever the distal cause. Moisture-tagging experiments support the idea that Greenland DO isotope signals may be explained almost entirely via changes in the vapor source distribution and that site temperature is not a main control on δ18O during DO transitions, contrary to the traditional interpretation. Our results provide a comprehensive, multiproxy, data-model synthesis of abrupt DO climate variability in Greenland.

Tornado Occurrence in the United States as Modulated by Multidecadal Oceanic Oscillations Using Empirical Model Decomposition

Studies have analyzed U.S. tornado variability and correlated F1–F5 tornado occurrence with various natural climate oscillations and anthropogenic factors. Using a relatively new empirical mode decommission (EMD) method that extracts time-frequency modes adaptively without priori assumptions like traditional time-series analysis methods, this study decomposes U.S. tornado variability during 1954–2022 into intrinsic modes on specific temporal scales. Correlating the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of EMD with climate indices found that 1. the U.S. overall tornado count is negatively (positively) correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index (the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)); 2. the negative (positive) correlation tends to be more prevalent in the western (eastern) U.S.; 3. the increase in weak (F1–F2) and decrease in strong (F3–F5) tornadoes after around 2000, when both the AMO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) shifted phases, are likely related to their secular trends and low-frequency IMFs; and 4. the emerging Dixie Tornado Alley coincides with an amplifying intrinsic mode of the SOI that correlates positively with the eastern U.S. and Dixie Alley tornadoes. The long-term persistence of these climate indices can offer potential guidance for future planning for tornado hazards.

Persistence Over Millennia Through Extreme Clonal Longevity: Phylogenomic Insight Into History of One of the World's Rarest Plant Species

ABSTRACTAimThe evolutionary history of European alpine plant species with medium to large geographical ranges is relatively well explored. Here, we investigate the genetic structure and diversity of an extremely narrow endemic and one of the world's rarest plants.LocationEastern Carpathians, Romania.TaxonAndryala laevitomentosa (Asteraceae), an evolutionarily isolated herb species with a worldwide range limited to five micropopulations distributed along a 1.8 km long mountain ridge.MethodsWe used three plastid loci, nuclear ribosomal ITS and genome‐wide, mostly nuclear 26,272 Single‐Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNPs) obtained from RAD‐seq data. We assessed haplotype and genotype diversity, dated the resulting phylogeographic structure, quantified seed production and inferred vegetative propagation.ResultsMaternally inherited plastid markers and nuclear genomic data revealed a concordant pattern: (i) limited genetic diversity, with seven cpDNA haplotypes and 11 RAD‐seq multilocus genotypes; (ii) a strong geographic structure corresponding to spatially isolated genets (clones). The species is likely of early Pleistocene origin (c. 2 Mya), and the estimated age of individual clones varied from c. 24 to 64 Kya. The average seed set assessed over 3 years was only 0.4%. However, the species reproduces veg by axillary and adventitious rosettes formed on rhizomes and roots, respectively.Main ConclusionsThe strong trade‐off between sexual and vegetative reproduction explains not only a deep and ancient phylogeographic structure but also the rarity of the species. Its survival depends almost entirely on vegetative reproduction. The genets of A. laevitomentosa are amongst the oldest clones ever documented in angiosperms. The persistence of these clones in situ for tens of thousands of years suggests an exceptional ability of this species to adapt to major climatic oscillations throughout the Pleistocene and Holocene and challenge our perception of the extent of resilience in plants.

A Pleistocene Biogeography in Miniature: The Small‐Scale Evolutionary History of Podarcis lusitanicus (Squamata, Lacertidae)

ABSTRACTAimRecent literature is unveiling more complex responses of biodiversity to Pleistocenic climatic oscillations than those derived from initial models based solely on southern glacial macrorefugia. Here, we zoom in to delve into the genetic diversity and population structure of Podarcis lusitanicus, a lizard species native to the north‐western Iberian Peninsula.LocationNorth‐western Iberian Peninsula.TaxonPodarcis lusitanicus.MethodsUtilising a comprehensive multilocus approach, we explored the species' phylogeography and demographic history at a very fine spatial scale and timeframe. Concurrently, we evaluated both current and historical habitat suitability for the species, linking it to the observed demographic trends. We examined DNA sequences from two mitochondrial (cytb and ND4) and three nuclear genes (ACM4, MC1R and PDC) in 230 specimens collected from 21 populations spanning most of the species' distribution range.ResultsOur findings corroborate cytonuclear discordances in Podarcis, with nuclear genes failing to identify the mitochondrial clades in P. lusitanicus. Despite its separation from other Podarcis species approximately 4 million years ago, its diversification occurred much more recently, around 0.4 million years ago, resulting in three monophyletic lineages that are geographically coherent. This pattern suggests that some lineages of P. lusitanicus might have gone extinct after the split from the common ancestor. Pleistocene climatic oscillations profoundly influenced the demographic history of the species. During warmer periods, such as the Last Interglacial, populations expanded and came into secondary contact, whereas during the Last Glacial Maximum, populations contracted and became isolated in multiple micro‐refugia. The subsequent Mid‐Holocene warming facilitated population recovery, range expansion and lineage admixture.Main ConclusionsThis study underscores the intricate interplay between isolation and dispersal at a microscale, driven by Pleistocene climatic fluctuations, which have profoundly shaped the genetic structure and diversity of Iberian terrestrial biodiversity and may remain overlooked by biogeographic studies at coarser scales.

Deciphering the Variations and Mechanisms of Global Land Monsoons during Marine Isotope Stage 3

Abstract Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) is characterized by significant millennial-scale climatic oscillations between cold stadials and mild interstadials, which presents a valuable case for understanding hydrological response to abrupt climate change. Through a set of coupled model simulations, our results broadly show an antiphased interhemispheric change in land monsoonal precipitation during the present-day relative to MIS 3 interstadial and the stadial–interstadial transition, with a general decrease in the Northern Hemisphere but an increase in the Southern Hemisphere. The antiphased pattern is largely caused by the change in orbital insolation during the present-day relative to MIS 3 interstadial, whereas by the weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the interstadial–stadial transition. However, there are obvious discrepancies in precipitation response and underlying mechanisms among individual monsoon domains and across different periods. Based on the moisture budget analysis, we indicate that the dynamic factor mainly explains the decreased monsoonal rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere during the present-day relative to the MIS 3 interstadial, whereas the thermodynamic term is largely responsible for the increased precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere. In contrast, the dynamic factor plays an important role in the variation of precipitation over all the monsoon zones from the MIS 3 interstadial to stadial states, with the thermodynamic term mainly contributing to the decreased tropical monsoonal precipitation in the colder Northern Hemisphere. Our results help improve the understanding of global monsoon variations under intermediate glacial climate conditions and shed light on their behaviors under potentially rapid climate change in the future.

Unveiling the Genome-Wide Consequences of Range Expansion and Mating System Transitions in Primula vulgaris.

Genetic diversity is heterogeneously distributed among populations of the same species, due to the joint effects of multiple demographic processes, including range contractions and expansions, and mating systems shifts. Here, we ask how both processes shape genomic diversity in space and time in the classical Primula vulgaris model. This perennial herb originated in the Caucasus region and was hypothesized to have expanded westward following glacial retreat in the Quaternary. Moreover, this species is a long-standing model for mating system transitions, exemplified by shifts from heterostyly to homostyly. Leveraging a high-quality reference genome of the closely related Primula veris and whole-genome resequencing data from both heterostylous and homostylous individuals from populations encompassing a wide distribution of P. vulgaris, we reconstructed the demographic history of P. vulgaris. Results are compatible with the previously proposed hypothesis of range expansion from the Caucasus region approximately 79,000 years ago and suggest later shifts to homostyly following rather than preceding postglacial colonization of England. Furthermore, in accordance with population genetic theoretical predictions, both processes are associated with reduced genetic diversity, increased linkage disequilibrium, and reduced efficacy of purifying selection. A novel result concerns the contrasting effects of range expansion versus shift to homostyly on transposable elements, for the former, process is associated with changes in transposable element genomic content, while the latter is not. Jointly, our results elucidate how the interactions among range expansion, transitions to selfing, and Quaternary climatic oscillations shape plant evolution.

Climatic Oscillations and Dynastic Trends: A Multiproxy analysis of the past two millennia in the Indian Subcontinent

The study examines centennial-scale climatic oscillations over the past two millennia in the monsoon-dominated Indian subcontinent by multiproxy analysis of pollen along with stable carbon isotope, total organic carbon, magnetic susceptibility, and grain size from a 274 cm deep sediment profile in Sarsapukhra Lake, Varanasi, in the Central Ganga Plain (CGP) to portray vegetation changes and their impact on rise and fall of dominant dynasties. Between ∼1800 to 1600 cal yr BP, the coarser silty sand with few Poaceae and Asteraceae pollen with other proxy data, indicate that the region experienced a strong Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Subsequently, from ∼1600 to 1350 cal yr BP, presence of mixed moist deciduous taxa such as Shorea robusta, Madhuca indica, Rubiaceae, Morus alba, Syzygium, and Moraceae indicate a moderate ISM while between 1350 to 1200 cal yr BP, the dominance of dry deciduous taxa viz. Acacia sp., Bombax ceiba, Holoptelea, Rutaceae, Madhuca indica, Mangifera indica etc. suggested weak ISM conditions. A pulsative ameliorating trend from ∼1200 to 1030 cal yr BP showed the dominance of deciduous taxa such as Holoptelea, Rutaceae, Ziziphus, Rubiaceae, Maytenus and Acanthaceae etc. indicating warm and moist climatic conditions, followed by a weak ISM until ∼900 cal yr BP and improved ISM until 620 cal yr BP. Subsequently, an improving trend in the ISM from ∼620 to 450 cal yr BP was observed, with increased dominance of wetland taxa, followed by acute dry climate beyond ∼450 cal yr BP indicating poor ISM conditions.Additionally, the alternating warm and cold episodes had a direct impact on vegetation, forcing human civilizations to migrate from their original locations and contributing to the downfall of prominent dynasties. Furthermore, this study lays the foundation for future research into issues related to vegetation change, the amount of ISM shift, and human culture−climate relationship.

Phylogeography of the Sinica Group of Macaques in the Himalayas: Taxonomic and Evolutionary Implications.

Owing to the taxonomic incongruence between the morphological features and genetic relationships of the sinica group of macaques (genus Macaca), the taxonomy of this macaque group has remained inconclusive. We aimed to resolve the taxonomic quandary and improve our understanding of the historical biogeography of the group by including macaque DNA samples from previously unsampled areas in the Himalayas. We sequenced and analyzed three mitochondrial DNA loci [cytochrome b (CYTB), cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (COI) and D-loop; 2898 bp] for sequence polymorphism, phylogenetics, species delimitation, and ancestral area reconstruction. We confirmed the occurrence of Arunachal macaque (Macaca munzala) on the southern slopes of the Eastern Himalayas in the Xizang Zizhiqu (Tibet Autonomous Region) of China. The results revealed that the sinica group of macaques is a parapatric species group composed of seven distinct species. Phylogenetic and species delimitation analyses revealed that the two previously considered subspecies of Assamese macaques (the eastern subspecies M. assamensis assamensis and the western subspecies M. a. pelops) are two distinct species. The eastern Assamese macaque is a sister species to the Tibetan macaque, whereas the western Assamese macaque and Arunachal macaque are the closest genetic sister species. The sinica group of macaques underwent five vicariance and seven dispersal radiations in the past, which mainly coincided with the Quaternary climatic oscillations between the late Pliocene and the late Pleistocene. By integrating our phylogenetic and ancestral area reconstruction results with findings from previous paleontological and molecular studies, we propose a robust hypothesis about the phylogeography of the sinica group of macaques.

Ironing out complexities in karst chronology: (U-Th)/He ferricrete ages reveal wet MIS 5c.

Karst landforms provide insights into landscape evolution and paleoclimate but are inherently challenging to date. An ancient interval of particularly intense weathering of Western Australian Pleistocene aeolianites is recorded in a spectacular pinnacle karst landscape with associated ferricrete nodules. (U-Th)/He dating of the ferricrete nodules revealed an age of 102.8 + 10.6/-11.4 thousand years, corresponding to marine isotope stage 5c. The (U-Th)/He age thus directly dates the wettest interglacial period in the region over the last 500 thousand years, which was responsible for the dissolution that formed the pinnacles. The reliability of the ferricrete (U-Th)/He age is supported by bounding optically stimulated luminescence and U-Th dates on associated aeolianites and carbonate precipitates, respectively. A (U-Th)/He approach is globally applicable to aeolianites with associated ferricretes, allowing more accurate dating of the environmental changes affecting these lithologies, and temporally constraining rapid Pleistocene climatic oscillations to better contextualize the associated evolution of the biosphere.

Non‐Stationary Flash Drought Analysis and Its Teleconnection With Low‐Frequency Climatic Oscillations

ABSTRACTFlash droughts, characterised by their rapid onset and significant impacts on local communities and agriculture, pose challenges for monitoring and mitigation efforts due to their unpredictable nature. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the occurrence, characteristics and influencing factors of flash droughts in the Ganga River Basin (GRB) for the period 1981–2020. Flash droughts are identified using the pentad averaged root zone soil moisture (PRZSM). The Mann‐Kendall trend test is used to determine the spatial and temporal pattern of flash drought characteristics. Furthermore, a multivariate flash drought index (MFDI) is developed to account for the combined effects of flash drought characteristics. Finally, wavelet coherence analysis evaluates the relationship between climatic oscillations and MFDI at the sub‐basin scale. Utilising a revised flash drought identification approach incorporating non‐stationary cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), the study identifies flash droughts in the GRB, particularly emphasising higher occurrences in the Chambal and Upper Yamuna Sub‐basins. Analysis of flash drought characteristics under stationary and non‐stationary conditions reveals increased frequency, severity and decline rates, highlighting the impact of evaporation and latent heat flux. Furthermore, the Upper Ganga Sub‐basin demonstrates coherence with the DMI at shorter time scales (1 to 4‐year time scales), while the Lower Ganga Sub‐basin displays a pronounced association with the NINO3.4 index (5.65‐year time scale), indicating the impact of climate oscillations on flash drought dynamics in these regions. These findings provide valuable insights for drought monitoring, prediction and management strategies in a changing climate, emphasising the need for integrated approaches to address the complex interplay between climate variability and flash drought occurrences in the GRB.

Spatial Nonstationarity in Phenological Responses of Nearctic Birds to Climate Variability.

Climate change is shifting the phenology of migratory animals earlier; yet an understanding of how climate change leads to variable shifts across populations, species and communities remains hampered by limited spatial and taxonomic sampling. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse 88,965 site-specific arrival dates from 222 bird species over 21 years to investigate the role of temperature, snowpack, precipitation, the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival timing of Nearctic birds. Interannual variation in bird arrival on breeding grounds was most strongly explained by temperature and snowpack, and less strongly by precipitation and climate oscillations. Sensitivity of arrival timing to climatic variation exhibited spatial nonstationarity, being highly variable within and across species. A high degree of heterogeneity in phenological sensitivity suggests diverging responses to ongoing climatic changes at the population, species and community scale, with potentially negative demographic and ecological consequences.

Behavioural responses of a trans-hemispheric migrant to climate oscillation.

Large-scale climatic fluctuations, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, can have dramatic effects on ocean ecosystem productivity. Many mobile species breeding in temperate or higher latitudes escape the extremes of seasonal climate variation through long-distance, even trans-global migration, but how they deal with, or are affected by, such longer phased climate fluctuations is less understood. To investigate how a long-lived migratory species might respond to such periodic environmental change we collected and analysed a 13 year biologging dataset for a trans-equatorial migrant, the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus). Our primary finding was that in El Niño years, non-breeding birds were at more northerly (lower) latitudes than in La Niña years, a response attributable to individual flexibility in migratory destinations. Daily time spent foraging varied in concert with this latitudinal shift, with birds foraging less in El Niño years. Secondarily, we found that in subsequent breeding, a hemisphere away, El Niño years saw a reduction in foraging time and chick provisioning rates: effects that could not be attributed to conditions at their breeding grounds in the North Atlantic. Thus, in a highly migratory animal, individuals may adjust to fluctuating non-breeding conditions but still experience cascading carry over effects on subsequent behaviour.