Climate Model Of Intermediate Complexity Research Articles

Changes in climatic characteristics of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land in the 21st century: Assessments with the IAP RAS climate model

Assessments of future changes in the climate of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land regions have been made with the IAP RAS climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity (which includes a detailed scheme of thermo- and hydrophysical soil processes) under prescribed greenhouse and sulfate anthropogenic forcing from observational data for the 19th and 20th centuries and from the SRES B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios for the 21st century. The annual mean warming of the extratropical land surface has been found to reach 2-5 K (3-10 K) by the middle (end) of the 21st century relative to 1961-1990, depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario, with larger values in North America than in Europe. Winter warming is greater than summer warming. This is expressed in a decrease of 1-4 K (or more) in the amplitude of the annual harmonic of soil-surface tem- perature in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia and North America. The total area extent of perennially frozen ground S p in the IAP RAS CM changes only slightly until the late 20th century, reaching about 21 million km 2 , and then decreases to 11-12 million km 2 in 2036-2065 and 4-8 million km 2 in 2071-2100. In the late 21st century, near-surface permafrost is expected to remain only in Tibet and in central and eastern Siberia. In these regions, depths of seasonal thaw exceed 1 m (2 m) under the SRES B1 (A1B or A2) scenario. The total land area with seasonal thaw or cooling is expected to decrease from the current value of 54-55 million km 2 to 38-42 in the late 21st century. The area of Northern Hemisphere snow cover in February is also reduced from the current value of 45-49 million km 2 to 31-37 million km 2 . For the basins of major rivers in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, runoff is expected to increase in central and eastern Siberia. In European Russia and in southern Europe, runoff is projected to decrease. In western Siberia (the Ob watershed), runoff would increase under the SRES A1B and A2 scenarios until the 2050s-2070s, then it would decrease to values close to present- day ones; under the anthropogenic forcing scenario SRES B1, the increase in runoff will continue up to the late 21st century. Total runoff from Eurasian rivers into the Arctic Ocean in the IAP RAS CM in the 21st century will increase by 8-9% depending on the scenario. Runoff from the North American rivers into the Arctic Ocean has not changed much throughout numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM.

Estimating the efficiency of mitigating and preventing global warming with scenarios of controlled aerosol emissions into the stratosphere

Ensemble numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) are conducted to estimate the efficiency of controlled climate forcing (geoengineering) due to stratospheric sulfate aerosol (SSA) emissions in order to compensate for global warming under the SRES A1B anthropogenic emis- sion scenario. Full (or even excessive) compensation for the expected anthropogenic warming in the model is possible with sufficiently intense geoengineering. For ensemble members with values of the governing param- eters corresponding to those obtained for the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, global warming is reduced by no more than 0.46 K in the second half of the 21st century, with a residual rise in the global surface temperature T g compar- ative to 1961-1990 of 1.0-1.2 K by 2050 and 1.9-2.2 K by 2100. The largest reduction in global warming (with the other parameters of the numerical experiment being equal) is found not for a meridional distribution of SSA concentration peaked at low latitudes (despite the largest (in magnitude) global compensation instantaneous radiative forcing), but for a uniform horizontal aerosol distribution and for a distribution with the SSA concen- tration maximum in the middle and subpolar latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The efficiency of geoengi- neering in terms of T g in the second half of the 21st century between the most efficient and the least efficient meridional distributions of stratospheric aerosols differs by as much as one-third, depending on the values of other governing parameters. For meridional distributions of SSA concentration, which produce the largest deceleration of global warming, such a deceleration is regionally most pronounced over high- and subpolar- latitude land areas and in the Arctic. In particular, this is expressed in the smallest reduction in the sea-ice extent and permafrost area under climate warming in the model. The compensation forcing also decelerates a general increase in global annual precipitation P g during warming. The relative deceleration in precipitation increase is most pronounced in land regions outside the tropics, where a significant deficit in precipitation is currently observed. After the theoretical completion of geoengineering in the first or second decade, its temperature effect vanishes with an abrupt acceleration of global and regional surface warming. For individual members of the ensemble experiment, the global temperature change in this period is five times as large as that in the experiment without geoengineering and ten times as large regionally (in northeastern Siberia).

Wave-induced upper-ocean mixing in a climate model of intermediate complexity

Climate modelling, to a great extent, is based on simulating air–sea interactions at larger scales. Small-scale interactions and related phenomena, such as wind-generated waves and wave-induced turbulence are sub-grid processes for such models and therefore cannot be simulated explicitly. In the meantime, the waves play the principal role in the upper-ocean mixing. This role is usually parameterized, mostly to account for the wave-breaking turbulence and to describe downward diffusion of such turbulence. The main purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that an important physical mechanism, that is the ocean mixing due to waves, is presently missing in the climate models, whereas the effect of this mixing is significant. It is argued that the mixing role of the surface waves is not limited to the mere transfer of the wind stress and energy across the ocean interface by means of breaking and surface currents. The waves facilitate two processes in the upper-ocean which can deliver turbulence to the depths of the order of 100 m directly, rather than diffusing it from the surface. The first process is due to capacity of the waves to generate turbulence, unrelated to the wave breaking, at all depths where the wave orbital motion is significant. The second process is Langmuir circulation, triggered by the waves. Such wave-controlled mixing should cause seasonal variations of the mixed-layer depth, which regulates the thermodynamic balance between the ocean and atmosphere. In the present paper, these variations are parameterized in terms of the global winds. The variable mixed-layer depth is then introduced in the climate model of intermediated complexity CLIMBER-2 with a purpose of reproducing the pre-industrial climate. Comparisons are conducted with the NRL global atlas of the mixed layer, and performance of the wave-mixing parameterisations was found satisfactory in circumstances where the mixing is expected to be dominated by the wind-generated waves. It is shown that as a result the seasonal temperature modulations and extremes are significantly enhanced. This effect combines with changes in the global pressure patterns and leads to large localized alterations of precipitation. Possible future scenarios are also simulated. Finally, importance of the wave-mixing physics and its relevance for the general circulation models is discussed.

Influence of volcanic activity on climate change in the past several centuries: Assessments with a climate model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is supplemented by a scheme which takes into account the volcanic forcing of climate. With this model, ensemble experiments have been conducted for the 1600s–1900s, in which, along with the volcanic forcing, the anthropogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols and the natural forcing due to variations in solar irradiance were taken into account. The model realistically reproduces the annual mean response of surface air temperature and precipitation to major eruptions both globally and regionally. In particular, the decreases in the annual mean global temperature Tg in the IAP RAS CM after the largest eruptions in the latter half of the 20th century, the Mt. Agung (1963), El Chichon (1982), and Mt. Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions, are 0.28, 0.27, and 0.46 K, respectively, in agreement with estimates from observational data. Moreover, in the IAP RAS CM, the volcanic eruptions result in a general precipitation decrease, especially over land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The seasonal distribution of the response shows good agreement with observations for high-latitude eruptions and worse agreement for tropical and subtropical volcanoes. On interdecadal scales, volcanism leads to variations in Tg on the order of 0.1 K. In numerical experiments with anthropogenic and natural forcings, the model reproduces a general change in surface air temperature over the past several centuries. Taking into account the volcanic forcing, along with that due to variations in solar irradiance, the model has partly reproduced the nonmonotonic global warming for the 20th century.

Sensitivity of the glacial ocean to Heinrich events from different iceberg sources, as modeled by a coupled atmosphere‐iceberg‐ocean model

We introduce explicit icebergs from a dynamic and thermodynamic iceberg model into an intermediate complexity climate model, which includes the coupled atmosphere‐ocean system. This modeling approach allows iceberg meltwater to be injected into the ocean on the basis of thermodynamical considerations along the iceberg trajectories. Icebergs are seeded from known ice sheets in both hemispheres. Adding icebergs to the present‐day climate model has a minimal impact, but during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Atlantic overturning strength is reduced by a third, while producing a model state that is consistent with a steady state climate. We test the sensitivity of the model at the LGM to additional Heinrich event‐scale fluxes of icebergs from three possible sources: Hudson Strait, the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, and the Norwegian Channel Ice Stream (NCIS). The sensitivity of the ocean is similar for all locations, with differences dominated by the length of the iceberg meltwater pathways to the main ocean convection region. The NCIS events result in more variability and a distinctly different, more northerly, salinity anomaly. We compare these results to a more typical modeling approach, whereby meltwater is injected directly into the ocean at the iceberg source locations, and find that these floods overestimate the oceanic response compared to the iceberg events. Our results suggest that 0.3–0.4 Sv of additional freshwater flux, either as icebergs or freshwater, is required to shut down the North Atlantic meridional overturning, a larger freshwater flux than sometimes suggested because of the localized nature of the release of the freshwater.

Simulation of characteristics of thermal and hydrologic soil regimes in equilibrium numerical experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity

The IAP RAS CM (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, climate model) has been extended to include a comprehensive scheme of thermal and hydrologic soil processes. In equilibrium numerical experiments with specified preindustrial and current concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the coupled model successfully reproduces thermal characteristics of soil, including the temperature of its surface, and seasonal thawing and freezing characteristics. On the whole, the model also reproduces soil hydrology, including the winter snow water equivalent and river runoff from large watersheds. Evapotranspiration from the soil surface and soil moisture are simulated somewhat worse. The equilibrium response of the model to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows a considerable warming of the soil surface, a reduction in the extent of permanently frozen soils, and the general growth of evaporation from continents. River runoff increases at high latitudes and decreases in the subtropics. The results are in qualitative agreement with observational data for the 20th century and with climate model simulations for the 21st century.

Sensitivity of the Present-Day Climate to Freshwater Forcing Associated with Antarctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The role played by Southern Hemisphere sea ice in the global climate system is explored using an earth system climate model of intermediate complexity. An ensemble of experiments is analyzed in which freshwater forcing equivalent to a complete 100-yr meltback of Southern Hemisphere sea ice is applied to a model run that simulates the present climate. This freshwater forcing acts to mildy subdue Southern Ocean deep overturning, reducing mean Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) export by 0.5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the ensemble average. The decreased convective overturning cools the surface waters, thereby increasing sea ice volume and thus forming a negative feedback that stabilizes Antarctic sea ice. In contrast, the reduced convective overturn warms subsurface waters in the Southern Ocean, which, combined with the imposed freshening, results in a reduction in the meridional steric height gradient and hence a slowdown of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The reduction in ACC strength is, however, only modest at 1.5 Sv. These responses are thus of only weak magnitude, and the system recovers to its original state over time scales of decades. An extreme scenario experiment with essentially instantaneous addition of this meltwater load shows similar results, indicating the limited response of the climate system to the freshening implied by Antarctic sea ice melt. An additional experiment in which a much larger freshwater forcing of approximately 0.4 Sv is applied over 100 yr confirms the relatively weak response of the model’s climate state to such forcing, relative to the well-documented climatic effects of freshwater forcing added to the North Atlantic.

Stability of Antarctic Bottom Water Formation to Freshwater Fluxes and Implications for Global Climate

Abstract The stability of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) to freshwater (FW) perturbations is investigated in a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. It is found that AABW is stable to surface freshwater fluxes greater in volume and rate to those that permanently “shut down” North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Although AABW weakens during FW forcing, it fully recovers within 50 yr of termination of FW input. This is due in part to a concurrent deep warming during AABW suppression that acts to eventually destabilize the water column. In addition, the prevailing upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water and northward Ekman transport across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, regulated by the subpolar westerly winds, limits the accumulation of FW at high latitudes and provides a mechanism for resalinizing the surface after the FW forcing has ceased. Enhanced sea ice production in the cooler AABW suppressed state also aids in the resalinization of the surface after FW forcing is stopped. Convection then restarts with AABW properties only slightly colder and fresher compared to the unperturbed control climate state. Further experiments with larger FW perturbations and very slow application rates (0.2 Sv/1000 yr) (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) confirm the lack of multiple steady states of AABW in the model. This contrasts with the North Atlantic, wherein classical hysteresis behavior is obtained with similar forcing. The climate response to reduced AABW production is also investigated. During peak FW forcing, Antarctic surface sea and air temperatures decrease by a maximum of 2.5° and 2.2°C, respectively. This is of a similar magnitude to the corresponding response in the North Atlantic. Although in the final steady state, the AABW experiment returns to the original control climate, whereas the North Atlantic case transitions to a different steady state characterized by substantial regional cooling (up to 6.0°C surface air temperature).

Volcanoes and ENSO over the Past Millennium

Abstract The controversial claim that El Niño events might be partially caused by radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols is reassessed. Building on the work of Mann et al., estimates of volcanic forcing over the past millennium and a climate model of intermediate complexity are used to draw a diagram of El Niño likelihood as a function of the intensity of volcanic forcing. It is shown that in the context of this model, only eruptions larger than that of Mt. Pinatubo (1991, peak dimming of about 3.7 W m−2) can shift the likelihood and amplitude of an El Niño event above the level of the model’s internal variability. Explosive volcanism cannot be said to trigger El Niño events per se, but it is found to raise their likelihood by 50% on average, also favoring higher amplitudes. This reconciles, on one hand, the demonstration by Adams et al. of a statistical relationship between explosive volcanism and El Niño and, on the other hand, the ability to predict El Niño events of the last 148 yr without knowledge of volcanic forcing. The authors then focus on the strongest eruption of the millennium (A.D. 1258), and show that it is likely to have favored the occurrence of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event in the midst of prevailing La Niña–like conditions induced by increased solar activity during the well-documented Medieval Climate Anomaly. Compiling paleoclimate data from a wide array of sources, a number of important hydroclimatic consequences for neighboring areas is documented. The authors propose, in particular, that the event briefly interrupted a solar-induced megadrought in the southwestern United States. Most of the time, however, volcanic eruptions are found to be too small to significantly affect ENSO statistics.

A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century

Abstract Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled general circulation models, climate models of intermediate complexity, and simple models, and uncertainty ranges and probabilistic projections from various published methods and models are assessed. Despite substantial improvements in climate models, projections for given scenarios on average have not changed much in recent years. Recent progress has, however, increased the confidence in uncertainty estimates and now allows a better separation of the uncertainties introduced by scenarios, physical feedbacks, carbon cycle, and structural uncertainty. Projection uncertainties are now constrained by observations and therefore consistent with past observed trends and patterns. Future trends in global temperature resulting from anthropogenic forcing over the next few decades are found to be comparably well constrained. Uncertainties for projections on the century time scale, when accounting for structural and feedback uncertainties, are larger than captured in single models or methods. This is due to differences in the models, the sources of uncertainty taken into account, the type of observational constraints used, and the statistical assumptions made. It is shown that as an approximation, the relative uncertainty range for projected warming in 2100 is the same for all scenarios. Inclusion of uncertainties in carbon cycle–climate feedbacks extends the upper bound of the uncertainty range by more than the lower bound.

Constraints on the transient climate response from observed global temperature and ocean heat uptake

Projections of future transient global temperature increase in climate models for a known forcing depend on the strength of the atmospheric feedbacks and the rate of transient ocean heat uptake. A Bayesian framework and an intermediate complexity climate model are used to calculate a probability density function (PDF) of the transient climate response (TCR), constrained by observations of global surface warming and ocean heat uptake. The PDF constrained by observations is wider than the TCR range of current climate models, and has a slightly lower mean. Uncertainties in the observed ocean warming are shown to potentially affect the TCR. It is proposed, however, that even if models were found to overestimate ocean heat uptake, correcting that bias would lead to revisions in surface temperature projections over the twenty‐first century that are smaller than the uncertainties introduced by poorly quantified atmospheric feedbacks.

Interaction of the methane cycle and processes in wetland ecosystems in a climate model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) has been supplemented with a module of soil thermal physics and the methane cycle, which takes into account the response of methane emissions from wetland ecosystems to climate changes. Methane emissions are allowed only from unfrozen top layers of the soil, with an additional constraint in the depth of the simulated layer. All wetland ecosystems are assumed to be water-saturated. The molar amount of the meth- ane oxidized in the atmosphere is added to the simulated atmospheric concentration of CO 2 . A control prein- dustrial experiment and a series of numerical experiments for the 17th-21st centuries were conducted with the model forced by greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols. It is shown that the IAP RAS CM gener- ally reproduces preindustrial and current characteristics of both seasonal thawing/freezing of the soil and the methane cycle. During global warming in the 21st century, the permafrost area is reduced by four million square kilo- meters. By the end of the 21st century, methane emissions from wetland ecosystems amount to 130-140 Mt CH 4 /year for the preindustrial and current period increase to 170-200 MtCH 4 /year . In the aggressive anthropogenic forc- ing scenario A2, the atmospheric methane concentration grows steadily to ≈ 3900 ppb. In more moderate scenarios A1B and B1, the methane concentration increases until the mid-21st century, reaching ≈ 2100-2400 ppb, and then decreases. Methane oxidation in air results in a slight additional growth of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Allowance for the interaction between processes in wetland ecosystems and the methane cycle in the IAP RAS CM leads to an additional atmospheric methane increase of 10-20% depending on the anthro- pogenic forcing scenario and the time. The causes of this additional increase are the temperature dependence of integral methane production and the longer duration of a warm period in the soil. However, the resulting enhancement of the instantaneous greenhouse radiative forcing of atmospheric methane and an increase in the mean surface air temperature are small (globally < 0.1 W/m 2 and 0.05 K, respectively).

Climate and carbon cycle changes under the overshoot scenario

The “overshoot scenario” is an emissions scenario in which CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere temporarily exceeds some pre-defined, “dangerous” threshold (before being reduced to non-dangerous levels). Support for this idea comes from its potential to achieve a balance between the burdens of current and future generations in dealing with global warming. Before it can be considered a viable policy, the overshoot scenario needs to be examined in terms of its impacts on the global climate and the environment. In, particular, it must be determined if climate change cause by the overshoot scenario is reversible or not, since crossing that “dangerous” CO 2 threshold could result in climate change from which we might not be able to recover. In this study, we quantify the change in several climatic and environmental variables under the overshoot scenario using a global climate model of intermediate complexity. Compared to earlier studies on the overshoot scenario, we have an explicit carbon cycle model that allows us to represent carbon-climate feedbacks and force the climate model more realistically with CO 2 emissions rates rather than with prescribed atmospheric pCO 2. Our standard CO 2 emissions rate is calculated on the basis of historical atmospheric pCO 2 data and the WRE S650 non-overshoot stabilization profile. It starts from the preindustrial year 1760, peaks in the year 2056, and ends in the year 2300. A variety of overshoot scenarios were constructed by increasing the amplitude of the control emissions peak but decreasing the peak duration so that the cumulative emissions remain essentially constant. Sensitivity simulations of various overshoot scenarios in our model show that many aspects of the global climate are largely reversible by year 2300. The significance of the reversibility, which takes roughly 200 years in our experiments, depends on the time horizon with which it is viewed or the number of future generations for whom equity is sought. At times when the overshoot scenario has emissions rates higher then the control scenario, the transient changes in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and surface ocean pH can be significant, even for moderate overshoot scenarios that remain within IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The large transient changes and the centennial timescale of climate reversibility suggest that the overshoot might not be the best mitigation approach, even if it technically follows the optimal economic path.

Eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model

A saturation of climate–carbon cycle feedback was found earlier in the simulations with the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity. Here, this eventual saturation is interpreted by using a conceptual linearised coupled model. It is shown that this saturation is due to weak, logarithmic, dependence of the carbon dioxide radiative forcing on its atmospheric concentration. This eventual saturation leads to the non-monotonic behaviour of climate–carbon cycle parameter f in time. If the time scale of the atmospheric CO 2 build up is t p then, starting from an initial equilibrium, f approaches maximum in time ≃ t p . Afterwards, climate–carbon cycle parameter decreases and eventually tends to unity. The time scale of the latter decrease is t 1 = ( 1 − 5 ) t p . A dependence of t m and t 1 on governing parameters of the conceptual model is studied. It is argued that an eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback is expected to occur also in the other integrations of sufficient length with coupled climate–carbon cycle models.

The Role of Poleward-Intensifying Winds on Southern Ocean Warming

Abstract Recent analyses of the latest series of climate model simulations suggest that increasing CO2 emissions in the atmosphere are partly responsible for (i) the observed poleward shifting and strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere subpolar westerlies (in association with shifting of the southern annular mode toward a higher index state), and (ii) the observed warming of the subsurface Southern Ocean. Here the role that poleward-intensifying westerlies play in subsurface Southern Ocean warming is explored. To this end a climate model of intermediate complexity was driven separately, and in combination with, time-varying CO2 emissions and time-varying surface winds (derived from the fully coupled climate model simulations mentioned above). Experiments suggest that the combination of the direct radiative effect of CO2 emissions and poleward-intensified winds sets the overall magnitude of Southern Ocean warming, and that the poleward-intensified winds are key in terms of determining its latitudinal structure. In particular, changes in wind stress curl associated with poleward-intensified winds significantly enhance pure CO2-induced subsurface warming around 45°S (through increased downwelling of warm surface water), reduces it at higher latitudes (through increased upwelling of cold deep water), and reduces it at lower latitudes (through decreased downwelling of warm surface water). Experiments also support recent high-resolution ocean model experiments suggesting that enhanced mesoscale eddy activity associated with poleward-intensified winds influences subsurface (and surface) warming. In particular, it is found that increased poleward heat transport associated with increased mesoscale eddy activity enhances the warming south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Finally, a mechanism involving offshore Ekman sea ice transport (modulated by enhanced mesoscale activity) that acts to significantly limit the human-induced high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface temperature response is reported on.

The Role of Stratification-Dependent Mixing for the Stability of the Atlantic Overturning in a Global Climate Model*

Abstract Using the “CLIMBER-3α” coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, the effect of a stratification-dependent vertical diffusivity on the sensitivity of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation to perturbations in freshwater forcing is investigated. The vertical diffusivity κ is calculated as κ ∼ N−α, where N is the local buoyancy frequency and the parameter α is a measure of the sensitivity of the vertical diffusivity to changes in stratification. Independent of α, the stratification of the deep ocean is weakly increased as a response to an anomalous freshwater flux in the North Atlantic in these experiments. In the region of freshwater forcing and north of it this is caused by the freshwater anomaly itself, but farther south it is associated with anomalously warm surface waters caused by a reduction of the northward oceanic heat transport. Subsequently, and in opposition to results from previous studies, the overturning is reduced by the anomalous freshwater flux, independent of the choice of α. However, the amount of reduction in overturning following a freshwater perturbation is found to depend critically on the choice of the mixing sensitivity α. If α &amp;lt; αcr, the response is similar to the model’s response using constant vertical diffusivity (α = 0). For α &amp;gt; αcr, a sharp increase of the sensitivity is found. The value of αcr is found to be between 0.5 and 1. A general feedback is proposed explaining this threshold behavior: if α is large, both positive and negative perturbations of stratification are amplified by associated changes in diffusivity. In the experiments presented here, this enhances the initial positive stratification anomaly in northern high latitudes, which is created by the anomalous freshwater flux. As a result, convection is strongly reduced, and the overturning is significantly weakened.

Influence of direct sulfate-aerosol radiative forcing on the results of numerical experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is extended by a block for the direct anthropogenic sulfate-aerosol (SA) radiative forcing. Numerical experiments have been performed with prescribed scenarios of the greenhouse and anthropogenic sulfate radiative forcings from observational estimates for the 19th and 20th centuries and from SRES scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 for the 21st century. The globally averaged direct anthropogenic SA radiative forcing F ASA by the end of the 20th century relative to the preindustrial state is −0.34 W/m2, lying within the uncertainty range of the corresponding present-day estimates. The absolute value of F ASA is the largest in Europe, North America, and southeastern Asia. A general increase in direct radiative forcing in the numerical experiments that have been performed continues until the mid-21st century. With both the greenhouse and the sulfate loadings included, the global climate warming in the model is 1.5–2.8 K by the end of the 21st century relative to the late 20th century, depending on the scenario, and 2.1–3.4 K relative to the preindustrial period. The sulfate aerosol reduces global warming by 0.1–0.4 K in different periods depending on the scenario. The largest slowdown (>1.5 K) occurs over land at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-21st century for scenario A2. The IAP RAS CM response to the greenhouse and the aerosol forcing is not additive.

Atlantic Subsurface Temperatures: Response to a Shutdown of the Overturning Circulation and Consequences for Its Recovery

Abstract Using the coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-3α, changes in the vertical thermal structure associated with a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated. When North Atlantic Deep Water formation is inhibited by anomalous freshwater forcing, intermediate depth ventilation can remain active and cool the subsurface water masses (i.e., the “cold case”). However, if intermediate ventilation is completely suppressed, relatively warm water coming from the south penetrates to a high northern latitude beneath the halocline and induces a strong vertical temperature inversion between the surface and intermediate depth (i.e., the “warm case”). Both types of temperature anomalies emerge within the first decade after the beginning of the freshwater perturbation. The sign of subsurface temperature anomaly has a strong implication for the recovery of the AMOC once the anomalous freshwater forcing is removed. While the AMOC recovers from the cold case on centennial time scales, the recovery is much more rapid (decadal time scales) when ventilation is completely suppressed and intermediate depths are anomalously warm. This is explained by a more rapid destabilization of the water column after cessation of the anomalous flux due to a strong vertical temperature inversion. A suite of sensitivity experiments with varying strength and duration of the freshwater perturbation and a larger value of background vertical diffusivity demonstrate robustness of the phenomenon. Implications of the simulated subsurface temperature response to the shutdown of the AMOC for future climate and abrupt climate changes of the past are discussed.

Biology‐mediated temperature control on atmospheric pCO2 and ocean biogeochemistry

The remarkable correspondence between glacial‐interglacial changes in atmospheric CO2 levels and global climate over much of the Pleistocene suggests that CO2 is also a key climate change driver. However, there is as yet no widely accepted explanation of the low glacial CO2 levels. Here I use an intermediate‐complexity climate model to show that glacial cooling, acting on the rates of organic carbon production and decay in the ocean, can explain a significant portion of the glacial CO2 lowering. New model results show that cooling strengthens the vertical transport of organic carbon from the surface ocean to the deep ocean, reduces atmospheric pCO2, and shifts nutrients from the Atlantic basin to the Indo‐Pacific basins. The overall vertical transport is increased because the cooling effect on reducing the degradation rate of sinking particulate organic carbon is greater than on reducing the export production. This net temperature effect on atmospheric pCO2 mediated by biology is comparable to the temperature effect on atmospheric pCO2 driven by solubility, which is almost always mentioned as a large factor in the glacial CO2 levels. An implication for the future is that higher ocean temperatures will act as a positive feedback on atmospheric CO2 by reducing the vertical transport of carbon to the deep ocean and thereby increasing CO2 degassing from the ocean.

El Niño as a mediator of the solar influence on climate

Using a climate model of intermediate complexity, we simulate the response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system to solar and orbital forcing over the Holocene. Solar forcing is reconstructed from radiocarbon production rate data, using various scaling factors to account for the conflicting estimates of solar irradiance variability. As estimates of the difference since the Maunder Minimum range from 0.05% to 0.5% of the solar “constant,” we consider these two extreme scenarios, along with the intermediate case of 0.2%. We show that for large or moderate forcings, the low‐pass‐filtered east‐west sea surface temperature gradient along the equator responds almost linearly to irradiance forcing, with a short phase lag (about a decade). Wavelet analysis shows a statistically significant enhancement of the century‐to‐millennial‐scale ENSO variability for even a moderate irradiance forcing. In contrast, the 0.05% case displays no such enhancement. Orbitally driven insolation forcing is found to produce a long‐term increase of ENSO variability from the early Holocene onward, in accordance with previous findings. When both forcings are combined, the superposition is approximately linear in the strong scaling case. Overall, the sea surface temperature response is of the magnitude required, and is persistent enough, to induce important climatic perturbations worldwide. The results suggest that ENSO may plausibly have acted as a mediator between the Sun and the Earth's climate. A comparison to key Holocene climate records, from the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and midlatitudes, shows support for this hypothesis.