Climate-mediated Changes Research Articles

Ecosystem sentinels for climate change? Evidence of wetland cover changes over the last 30 years in the tropical Andes.

While the impacts of climate change on individual species and communities have been well documented there is little evidence on climate-mediated changes for entire ecosystems. Pristine alpine environments can provide unique insights into natural, physical and ecological response to climate change yet broad scale and long-term studies on these potential ‘ecosystem sentinels’ are scarce. We addressed this issue by examining cover changes of 1689 high-elevation wetlands (temporarily or perennial water-saturated grounds) in the Bolivian Cordillera Real, a region that has experienced significant warming and glacier melting over the last 30 years. We combined high spatial resolution satellite images from PLEIADES with the long-term images archive from LANDSAT to 1) examine environmental factors (e.g., glacier cover, wetland and watershed size) that affected wetland cover changes, and 2) identify wetlands’ features that affect their vulnerability (using habitat drying as a proxy) in the face of climate change. Over the (1984–2011) period, our data showed an increasing trend in the mean wetland total area and number, mainly related to the appearance of wet grassland patches during the wetter years. Wetland cover also showed high inter-annual variability and their area for a given year was positively correlated to precipitation intensities in the three months prior to the image date. Also, round wetlands located in highly glacierized catchments were less prone to drying, while relatively small wetlands with irregularly shaped contours suffered the highest rates of drying over the last three decades. High Andean wetlands can therefore be considered as ecosystem sentinels for climate change, as they seem sensitive to glacier melting. Beyond the specific focus of this study, our work illustrates how satellite-based monitoring of ecosystem sentinels can help filling the lack of information on the ecological consequences of current and changing climate conditions, a common and crucial issue especially in less-developed countries.

Sundarban mangroves: diversity, ecosystem services and climate change impacts

The Bengal delta coast harboring the famous Sundarban mangroves is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Already, salinity intrusion, increasing cyclones and anomalies in rainfall, and temperature, are causing many social and livelihood problems. However, our knowledge on the diversified climate change impacts on Sundarban ecosystems services, providing immense benefits, including foods, shelters, livelihood, and health amenities, is very limited. Therefore, this article has systematically reviewed the major functional aspects, and highlights on biodiversity, ecosystem dynamics, and services of the Sunderban mangroves, with respect to variations in climatic factors. The mangrove ecosystems are highly productive in terms of forest biomass, and nutrient contribution, especially through detritus-based food webs, to support rich biodiversity in the wetlands and adjacent estuaries. Sundarban mangroves also play vital role in atmospheric CO2 sequestration, sediment trapping and nutrient recycling. Sea level rise will engulf a huge portion of the mangroves, while the associated salinity increase is posing immense threats to biodiversity and economic losses. Climate-mediated changes in riverine discharge, tides, temperature, rainfall and evaporation will determine the wetland nutrient variations, influencing the physiological and ecological processes, thus biodiversity and productivity of Sundarban mangroves. Hydrological changes in wetland ecosystems through increased salinity and cyclones will lower the food security, and also induce human vulnerabilities to waterborne diseases. Scientific investigations producing high resolution data to identify Sundarban?s multidimensional vulnerabilities to various climatic regimes are essential. Sustainable plans and actions are required integrating conservation and climate change adaptation strategies, including promotion of alternative livelihoods. Thus, interdisciplinary approaches are required to address the future climatic disasters, and better protection of invaluable ecosystem services of the Sunderban mangroves.Asian J. Med. Biol. Res. December 2016, 2(4): 488-507

Sources and controls of organic carbon in lakes across the subarctic treeline

Abundant northern lakes have an intrinsic role in the transport, sequestration, and mineralization of terrestrial organic carbon. The quantity and quality of this carbon control vital aquatic biogeochemical processes, and influence the metabolic balance of lakes with subsequent impact on the global carbon cycle. We measured concentrations and type of dissolved organic matter and elemental and stable isotopic composition of carbon and nitrogen in 31 subarctic lakes with varying catchment types across the treeline in northern Finland, integrating both the pelagic (lake water) and the benthic (surface sediments) carbon pools for a comprehensive understanding of landscape influence on aquatic carbon dynamics. Wetland cover was identified as the primary catchment control over the aquatic carbon pools, reflected particularly in the bio-optical properties of lake water. Landscape influence on sediment carbon content and composition, mirroring largely the structure and productivity of the aquatic communities, was primarily connected to allochthonous nutrient inputs fueling autotrophic production. Basin depth and benthic production were identified as important internal controls on the surface sediment geochemistry. Overall, our results suggest that shallow subarctic lakes will be particularly susceptible to climate-mediated changes in the export of terrestrial organic matter from wetlands. Whether the landscape influence will promote the channeling of terrestrial carbon into the atmosphere via aquatic ecosystems will strongly depend on the interplay between the biogeochemical characteristic of the allochthonous carbon inputs, terrestrial nutrient fluxes, and the depth of the recipient ecosystems.

Species-rich meta-communities of the diatom order Thalassiosirales in the Arctic and northern Atlantic Ocean

The marine planktonic diatom order Thalassiosirales are used as climate proxies with reported characteristic temperate and Polar species. However, a systematic analysis of the genetic variability and species limits is lacking. Here, we combined molecular and morphological approaches to identify Thalassiosirales from 7 Beaufort Sea sea-ice samples and 27 water-column samples collected from across the Canadian Arctic at different times of the year and the Scotia Shelf, North Atlantic in spring. While many species were found in both oceanic regions, there were two distinct Thalassiosirales communities: the first from sea ice and ice-influenced water columns and the second Arctic late summer and North Atlantic spring communities. Thalassiosirales formed genetically coherent Boreal-Arctic meta-communities, inclusive of intra-specific variants. Genetic similarity between the Arctic and North Atlantic meta-communities would be reinforced by counter-clockwise dominant surface current systems. Local patterns of spatial and temporal distributions of planktonic thalassiosiroids were best explained by latitudinal gradients and phosphate and silicate concentrations, suggesting that climate-mediated changes in Arctic and North Atlantic hydrography could have a marked effect on species distribution. Our analysis also revealed a need for taxonomic revision of several species complexes reported from the region before they can be reliably used as bio-indicators.

Climate-mediated changes in predator–prey interactions in the fossil record: a case study using shell-drilling gastropods from the Pleistocene Japan Sea

AbstractPaleoecological studies enhance our understanding of biotic responses to climate change because they consider long timescales not accessible through observational and experimental studies. Using predatory drillholes produced on fossil bivalve shells by carnivorous gastropods, we provide an example of how climate change affected predator–prey interactions. We quantitatively examine temporal changes in fossil molluscan assemblages and predation patterns from the Pleistocene Japan Sea, which experienced drastic environmental changes in relation to glacial–interglacial climate cycles. We found significant changes in predation patterns associated with a decline in the abundance of warm-water molluscan species. Climate-mediated fluctuations in the eustatic sea level and resultant weakening of the Tsushima Warm Current caused a decline in a warm-water shell-drilling predator, which moderated the predation pressure and size relationship between the predators and the bivalve prey. Our results indicate that climate-mediated range shifts of species in present-day and future marine ecosystems can likewise increase altered predator–prey interactions.

Climate, demography and lek stability in an Amazonian bird.

Lekking is a rare, but iconic mating system where polygynous males aggregate and perform group displays to attract females. Existing theory postulates that demographic and environmental stability are required for lekking to be an evolutionarily viable reproductive strategy. However, we lack empirical tests for the hypotheses that lek stability is facilitated by age-specific variation in demographic rates, and by predictable, abundant resources. To address this knowledge gap, we use multistate models to examine how two demographic elements of lek stability-male survival and recruitment-vary with age, social status and phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a Neotropical frugivorous bird, the wire-tailed manakin (Pipra filicauda). Our results show that demographic and environmental conditions were related to lek stability in the Ecuadorean Amazon. Apparent annual survival probability of territorial males was higher than that of non-territorial floaters, and recruitment probability increased as males progressed in an age-graded queue. Moreover, annual survival of territorial males and body condition of both floaters and territory holders were higher following years with El Niño conditions, associated with reduced rainfall and probably higher fruit production in the northern Neotropics, and lower after years with wet, La Niña conditions that predominated our study. Recruitment probabilities varied annually, independent of ENSO phase, and increased over our study period, but the annual mean number of territorial males per lek declined. Our results provide empirical support for hypothesized demographic and environmental drivers of lek dynamics. This study also suggests that climate-mediated changes in resource availability can affect demography and subsequent lek stability in a relatively buffered, lowland rainforest.

Summer diet composition of walleye pollock and predator–prey relationships with copepods and euphausiids in the eastern Bering Sea, 1987–2011

The composition of walleye pollock diets from the eastern Bering Sea continental shelf was determined from 25 years of sampling during summer surveys from 1987 through 2011. Substantial differences in the stomach contents of walleye pollock were found among the sizes and geographic strata that correspond to geographic distribution of the prey. With increasing pollock size, copepods decreased in importance in middle and outer shelf areas while mysids decreased in importance in the inner shelf. Euphausiids increased in importance with increasing pollock size in southeastern areas of the shelf, and fishes and shrimp increased in importance with increasing pollock size in northeastern areas of the middle and outer shelf. The biomass-weighted average diet composition of eastern Bering Sea pollock in each year׳s survey indicated perennial but variable importance of euphausiids and copepods as prey. An index of partial fullness indicated an interannual pattern of below-average consumption of copepods by the surveyed pollock from 1993 to 2004, but during this period the amount of euphausiids consumed continued to fluctuate about a mean that was similar to years surveyed before and after that period. The summer feeding success, as indicated by average stomach fullness, of intermediate sizes of pollock appears to be closely related to the consumption of copepods (especially for pollock 30–39cm fork length (FL)) and prey other than euphausiids (especially for pollock 40–49cmFL). Length-specific predator–prey relationships with copepods and euphausiids correspond to patterns in pollock feeding migrations. Interannual trends in the biomass of copepods in the EBS are reflected most closely in the diet of 20–29cmFL pollock, and trends in the biomass of euphausiids in the EBS are reflected most closely in the diet of the largest pollock (60+cmFL). Climate-mediated changes in the zooplankton community will likely have differential impacts across the demographic spectrum of pollock in the EBS.

Toward quantifying the response of the oceans' biological pump to climate change

The biological pump makes a major global contribution to the sequestration of carbon-rich particles in the oceans’ interior. This pump has many component parts from physics to ecology that together control its efficiency in exporting particles. Hence, the influence of climate change on the functioning and magnitude of the pump is likely to be complex and non-linear. Here, I employ a published 1-D coupled surface-subsurface Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) export flux model to systematically explore the potential influence of changing oceanic conditions on each of the pump’s ‘moving parts’, in both surface and subsurface waters. These simulations were run for typical high (High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll, HNLC) and low (Low Nutrient Low Chlorophyll, LNLC) latitude sites. Next, I couple pump components that have common drivers, such as temperature, to investigate more complex scenarios involving concurrent climate-change mediated alteration of multiple ‘moving parts’ of the pump. Model simulations reveal that in the surface ocean, changes to algal community structure (i.e., a shift towards small cells) has the greatest individual influence (decreased flux) on downward POC flux in the coming decades. In subsurface waters, a shift in zooplankton community structure has the greatest single effect on POC flux (decreased) in a future ocean. More complex treatments, in which up to ten individual factors (across both surface and subsurface processes) were concurrently altered, ~ halved the POC flux at both high and low latitudes. In general climate-mediated changes to surface ocean processes had a greater effect on the magnitude of POC flux than alteration of subsurface processes, some of which negated one another. This relatively simple 1-D model provides initial insights into the most influential processes that may alter the future performance of this pump, and more importantly reveals many knowledge gaps that require urgent attention before we can accurately quantify future changes to the biological pump.

The role of eddies in the diving behaviour of female southern elephant seals

As the Antarctic Circumpolar Current crosses the South-West Indian Ocean Ridge, it creates an extensive eddy field characterised by high sea level anomaly variability. We investigated the diving behaviour of female southern elephant seals from Marion Island during their post-moult migrations in relation to this eddy field in order to determine its role in the animals’ at-sea dispersal. Most seals dived within the region significantly more often than predicted by chance, and these dives were generally shallower and shorter than dives outside the eddy field. Mixed effects models estimated reductions of 44.33 ± 3.00 m (maximum depth) and 6.37 ± 0.10 min (dive duration) as a result of diving within the region, along with low between-seal variability (maximum depth: 5.5 % and dive duration: 8.4 %). U-shaped dives increased in frequency inside the eddy field, whereas W-shaped dives with multiple vertical movements decreased. Results suggest that Marion Island’s adult female elephant seals’ dives are characterised by lowered cost-of-transport when they encounter the eddy field during the start and end of their post-moult migrations. This might result from changes in buoyancy associated with varying body condition upon leaving and returning to the island. Our results do not suggest that the eddy field is a vital foraging ground for Marion Island’s southern elephant seals. However, because seals preferentially travel through this area and likely forage opportunistically while minimising transport costs, we hypothesise that climate-mediated changes in the nature or position of this region may alter the seals’ at-sea dispersal patterns.

Tropical herbivores provide resilience to a climate-mediated phase shift on temperate reefs.

Climate-mediated changes to biotic interactions have the potential to fundamentally alter global ecosystems. However, the capacity for novel interactions to drive or maintain transitions in ecosystem states remains unresolved. We examined temperate reefs that recently underwent complete seaweed canopy loss and tested whether a concurrent increase in tropical herbivores could be maintaining the current canopy-free state. Turf-grazing herbivorous fishes increased in biomass and diversity, and displayed feeding rates comparable to global coral reefs. Canopy-browsing herbivores displayed high (~ 10,000 g 100 m(-2) ) and stable biomass between 2006 and 2013. Tropical browsers had the highest abundance in 2013 and displayed feeding rates approximately three times higher than previously observed on coral reefs. These observations suggest that tropical herbivores are maintaining previously kelp-dominated temperate reefs in an alternate canopy-free state by grazing turfs and preventing kelp reestablishment. This remarkable ecosystem highlights the sensitivity of biotic interactions and ecosystem stability to warming and extreme disturbance events.

Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change.

Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-1985 and 2000-2005. We applied Bayesian spatially varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms, suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change, whereas those changes are likely to be greater in contiguous and unfragmented habitats.

The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts.

Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to 'barrens' when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs.

Fire activity and severity in the western US vary along proxy gradients representing fuel amount and fuel moisture.

Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have shown that wildfire activity (e.g., area burned) at regional to global scales may be limited at the extremes of environmental gradients such as productivity or moisture. Fire activity, however, represents only one component of the fire regime, and no studies to date have characterized fire severity along such gradients. Given the importance of fire severity in dictating ecological response to fire, this is a considerable knowledge gap. For the western US, we quantify relationships between climate and the fire regime by empirically describing both fire activity and severity along two climatic water balance gradients, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and water deficit (WD), that can be considered proxies for fuel amount and fuel moisture, respectively. We also concurrently summarize fire activity and severity among ecoregions, providing an empirically based description of the geographic distribution of fire regimes. Our results show that fire activity in the western US increases with fuel amount (represented by AET) but has a unimodal (i.e., humped) relationship with fuel moisture (represented by WD); fire severity increases with fuel amount and fuel moisture. The explicit links between fire regime components and physical environmental gradients suggest that multivariable statistical models can be generated to produce an empirically based fire regime map for the western US. Such models will potentially enable researchers to anticipate climate-mediated changes in fire recurrence and its impacts based on gridded spatial data representing future climate scenarios.

A dynamic-bioenergetics model to assess depth selection and reproductive growth by lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

We coupled dynamic optimization and bioenergetics models to assess the assumption that lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) depth distribution is structured by temperature, food availability, and predation risk to maximize reproductive mass by autumn spawning. Because the model uses empirical daily thermal-depth profiles recorded in a small boreal shield lake (lake 373 at the Experimental Lakes Area, northwestern Ontario) during 2 years of contrasting thermal stratification patterns, we also assessed how climate-mediated changes in lakes may affect the vertical distribution, growth, and fitness of lake trout, a cold-water top predator. The depths of acoustic-tagged lake trout were recorded concurrently with thermal-depth profiles and were compared to model output, enabling an assessment of model performance in relation to the observed fish behavior and contrasting thermal conditions. The depths and temperatures occupied by simulated fish most closely resembled those of the tagged fish when risk of predation was included in the model, indicating the model may incorporate the most important underlying mechanisms that determine lake trout depth. Annual differences suggest less use of shallow (warm), productive habitats, resulting in markedly less reproductive mass, during the year with the warm stratification pattern. Mass for reproduction may be lower in warmer conditions because of reduced reproductive investment, yet survival may be inadvertently higher because risky surface waters may be avoided more often in warmer, shallower, and metabolically costly conditions. At a minimum our study suggests that lake trout reproductive mass and fitness may be expected to change under the anticipated longer and warmer stratification patterns.

Climate-mediated changes in zooplankton community structure for the eastern Bering Sea

Zooplankton are critical to energy transfer between higher and lower trophic levels in the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem. Previous studies from the southeastern Bering Sea shelf documented substantial differences in zooplankton taxa in the Middle and Inner Shelf Domains between warm and cold years. Our investigation expands this analysis into the northern Bering Sea and the south Outer Domain, looking at zooplankton community structure during a period of climate-mediated, large-scale change. Elevated air temperatures in the early 2000s resulted in regional warming and low sea-ice extent in the southern shelf whereas the late 2000s were characterized by cold winters, extensive spring sea ice, and a well-developed pool of cold water over the entire Middle Domain. The abundance of large zooplankton taxa such as Calanus spp. (C. marshallae and C. glacialis), and Parasagitta elegans, increased from warm to cold periods, while the abundance of gelatinous zooplankton (Cnidaria) and small taxa decreased. Biomass followed the same trends as abundance, except that the biomass of small taxa in the southeastern Bering Sea remained constant due to changes in abundance of small copepod taxa (increases in Acartia spp. and Pseudocalanus spp. and decreases in Oithona spp.). Statistically significant changes in zooplankton community structure and individual species were greatest in the Middle Domain, but were evident in all shelf domains, and in both the northern and southern portions of the eastern shelf. Changes in community structure did not occur abruptly during the transition from warm to cold, but seemed to begin gradually and build as the influence of the sea ice and cold water temperatures persisted. The change occurred one year earlier in the northern than the southern Middle Shelf. These and previous observations demonstrate that lower trophic levels within the eastern Bering Sea respond to climate-mediated changes on a variety of time scales, including those shorter than the commonly accepted quasi-decadal time periods. This lack of resilience or inertia at the lowest trophic levels affects production at higher trophic levels and must be considered in management strategy evaluations of living marine resources.

Modeling effects of climate change and phase shifts on detrital production of a kelp bed.

The exchange of energy and nutrients between ecosystems (i.e., resource subsidies) plays a central role in ecological dynamics over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Little attention has been paid to the role of anthropogenic impacts on natural systems in altering the magnitude, timing, and quality of resource subsidies. Kelp ecosystems are highly productive on a local scale and export over 80% of kelp primary production as detritus, subsidizing consumers across broad spatial scales. Here, we generate a model of detrital production from a kelp bed in Nova Scotia to hindcast trends in detrital production based on temperature and wave height recorded in the study region from 1976 to 2009, and to project changes in detrital production that may result from future climate change. Historical and projected increases in temperature and wave height led to higher rates of detrital production through increased blade breakage and kelp dislodgment from the substratum, but this reduced kelp biomass and led to a decline in detrital production in the long-term. We also used the model to demonstrate that the phase shift from a highly productive kelp bed to a low-productivity barrens, driven by the grazing activity of sea urchins, reduces kelp detrital production by several orders of magnitude, an effect that would be exacerbated by projected increases in temperature and wave action. These results indicate that climate-mediated changes in ecological dynamics operating on local scales may alter the magnitude of resource subsidies to adjacent ecosystems, affecting ecological dynamics on regional scales.

Methane cycling dynamics in sediments of Alaskan Arctic Foothill lakes

We measured aspects of sediment methane (CH4) cycling dynamics in 3 shallow (mean depth, z̄= 2.1 m) and 3 deep (z̄ = 6.5 m) Alaskan Arctic Foothill lakes to establish reference data to evaluate future climate-mediated changes in these systems and to identify lake-size-dependent differences in rates and controls on CH4 production and consumption or sensitivity to changing climate. The mean sedimentation rate and sediment oxygen (O2) penetration depth were significantly higher and lower, respectively, in shallow versus deep lakes. The molar carbon to nitrogen (C:N) ratio of 12 for sedimenting material across lakes indicated a dominance by phytodetritus. Pore water dissolved organic C and CH4 concentrations were higher in shallow than in deep lakes at comparable depths below the sediment surface. The average area-based rate of methanogenesis was significantly higher in shallow lakes, exceeding the mean of deep lakes by a factor of 4; however, the mean potential area-based rate of CH4 oxidation was comparable between lake classes due to the reduced sediment O2 penetration depth in shallow lakes. All lake sediments responded similarly to chemical amendments. Hydrogen addition significantly stimulated rates of methanogenesis relative to unamended controls, while rates were unchanged by alternate electron acceptors (SO42-, Fe3+, NO3-, Mn4+), suggesting that other microbial groups did not compete with methanogens for common substrates or produce toxic intermediates. Across all lakes, 30% of assimilated CH4 was converted to methanotophic biomass, and methanotrophic C production could be as much as 23% of epipelic primary production, pointing to the potential importance of CH4-derived C in Arctic lacustrine food webs.

Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: From Evidence to a Predictive Framework

Scientists have long predicted large-scale responses of infectious diseases to climate change, giving rise to a polarizing debate, especially concerning human pathogens for which socioeconomic drivers and control measures can limit the detection of climate-mediated changes. Climate change has already increased the occurrence of diseases in some natural and agricultural systems, but in many cases, outcomes depend on the form of climate change and details of the host-pathogen system. In this review, we highlight research progress and gaps that have emerged during the past decade and develop a predictive framework that integrates knowledge from ecophysiology and community ecology with modeling approaches. Future work must continue to anticipate and monitor pathogen biodiversity and disease trends in natural ecosystems and identify opportunities to mitigate the impacts of climate-driven disease emergence.

Nesting Ecology of McKay's Buntings on St. Matthew Island, Alaska

The McKay's Bunting (Plectrophenax hyperboreus) is one of the rarest passerine species in North America and breeds solely on St. Matthew and Hall islands in the remote Bering Sea, Alaska. We examined the nesting ecology of this poorly studied species on St. Matthew Island in 1982, 1983, and 2003. We found that the high breeding density of the McKay's Bunting may account for the lower clutch size and number of young fledged per successful nest compared to its sister species, the Snow Bunting (P. nivalis). The proportion of eggs that successfully hatched was higher for McKay's Buntings than Snow Buntings breeding at other Arctic locations in North America. Daily nest survival declined during egg-laying and incubation and increased throughout the nestling period. Nesting chronology was earlier in 2003 compared to the 1980s; however, daily nest survival was similar between decades. To assess how McKay's Buntings are responding to climate-mediated changes to physical and biotic conditions, we recommend monitoring the species' reproductive rates and population size.

Climate-mediated changes in small lakes inferred from midge assemblages: the influence of thermal regime and lake depth

Subfossil midge (Chironomidae and Chaoboridae) assemblages were examined in the surficial sediments (0–1 cm) from small inland lakes in the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) of northwestern Ontario, Canada. In these boreal lakes, maximum depth (Zmax), alkalinity, Secchi depth and chlorophyll-a concentrations explained significant amounts of variation in the subfossil assemblages. Constrained ordinations (redundancy analysis) indicated that the relationship between Zmax (as sqrt Zmax) and assemblage composition was strong enough to develop a paleolimnological inference model. Model statistics suggested that a robust model was generated (r 2 = 0.78, RMSEP = 0.533, max bias = 0.674); however, when the model was applied to a subfossil stratigraphy from an ELA lake sediment core, results suggested that the inference model had produced an unrealistically shallow Zmax inference. Further analyses indicated that thermal regime had a strong influence on assemblage composition; when the influence of thermal regime was partialled out, there was a much weaker relationship between Zmax and assemblage composition, particularly for stratified lakes. A thermal regime inference model was subsequently developed, which, when applied to the lake sediment core stratigraphy, indicated that the shallow Zmax inference may have been the result of a period of increased mixing or polymixis in this stratified lake. Water column mixing may increase due to hypolimnetic warming and increased water clarity resulting from declines in dissolved organic carbon. In a training set where there are strong correlations between lake depth and assemblage composition, this relationship is not necessarily a strict function of lake depth, but of some other highly correlated variable, likely thermal conditions.