Climate Of West Africa Research Articles

Enhancement of rainfall and runoff upstream from irrigation location in a climate model of West Africa

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of potential medium‐scale irrigation (about 60,000 km2) on the climate of West Africa using the MIT Regional Climate Model. We find that irrigation at this scale induces an atmospheric response similar to that of large‐scale irrigation (about 400,000km2) which was considered in our previous theoretical study. While the volume of water needed for large‐scale irrigation is about 230–270 km3, the medium‐scale irrigation requires about 50 km3, and the annual flow of the Niger river in the relevant section is about 70 km3. The remote response of rainfall distribution to local irrigation exhibits a significant sensitivity to the latitudinal location of irrigation. The nature of this response is such that irrigation from the Niger River around latitude 18°N induces significant increase in rainfall of order 100% in the upstream sources of the Niger River and results in significant increase in runoff of order 50%. This additional runoff can potentially be collected by the river network and delivered back toward the irrigation area. By selecting the location of irrigation carefully, the positive impacts of irrigation on rainfall distribution can be maximized. The approach of using a regional climate model to investigate the impact of location and size of irrigation schemes, explored in this study, may be the first step in incorporating land‐atmosphere interactions in the design of location and size of irrigation projects. However, this theoretical approach is still in early stages of development and further research is needed before any practical application in water resources planning.

The role of mineral aerosols in shaping the regional climate of West Africa

AbstractThis article examines the role of mineral aerosols in the regional climate of West Africa. Analysis is completed by comparing two 30 year simulations using a regional climate model (RegCM3‐IBIS). The two simulations are identical in structure except one includes the representation of mineral aerosols via a fully coupled radiatively interactive dust emissions and aerosol tracer model; the other simulation does not. To discern the impact of dust on West Africa's climate, comparisons are made between the two simulations' surface climatology as well as atmospheric dynamics. It is found that RegCM3‐IBIS and its dust model perform well in simulating the temporal and spatial distributions of mineral aerosols over the Sahel and Sahara. Consistent with previous studies over the region, RegCM3‐IBIS simulates high‐dust loading over the region (aerosol optical depth of 0.5–1.1), which results in significant incident shortwave radiation attenuation (25–50 W/m2) and temperature cooling (0.5°C–1.25°C). Depending on the underlying surface brightness, the top of atmosphere net radiative forcing may be positive (bright desert surfaces) or negative (dark, vegetated surface) with important implications on surface temperature cooling. Here it is proposed that the effects of dust on West African rainfall are distinctly different across the ocean‐land border and the desert border region of the Sahel/Sahara. Nevertheless, in both regions, the change in rainfall is less than 10% of the total annual values. Therefore, this work concludes that the current, observed, dust loading over West Africa does not significantly affect rainfall via changes in the radiation budget. However, it is important to note that this work does not include mineral aerosol effects on sea surface temperatures, which may be significant in influencing the results.

Impacts of bias correction of lateral boundary conditions on regional climate projections in West Africa

Biases existing in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) influence climate simulations in regional climate models (RCMs). Correcting the biases in global climate model (GCM)-produced LBCs before running RCMs was proposed in previous studies as a possible way to reduce the GCM-related model dependence of future climate projections using RCMs. In this study the ICTP Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of LBC bias correction on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa. To accomplish this, two types of present versus future simulations are conducted using RegCM4: a control type where both the present and future LBCs are derived directly from the GCM output (as is done in most regional climate downscaling studies); an experiment type where the present-day LBCs are from reanalysis data and future LBCs are derived by combining the reanalysis data and the GCM-projected LBC changes. For each type of simulations, three different sets of LBCs are experimented on: 6-hourly synoptic forcing directly from the reanalysis or GCM, 6-hourly data interpolated from monthly climatology (without diurnal cycle), and 6-hourly data interpolated from the month-specific climatology of diurnal cycles. It is found that the simulations using different LBCs produce similar present-day summer rainfall patterns, but the predicted future changes differ significantly depending on how the LBC bias correction is treated. Specifically, both the bias correction applied at the synoptic scale and the bias correction applied to the monthly interpolated LBCs without diurnal cycle produce a spurious drying signal caused by physical inconsistency in the corrected future LBCs. Interpolated monthly LBCs with diurnal cycle alleviate the problem to a large extent. These results suggest that using bias-corrected LBCs to drive regional climate models may not guarantee reliable future projections although reasonable present climate can be simulated. Physical inconsistencies may be contained in the bias-corrected LBCs, increasing the uncertainties of RCM-produced future projections.

Modeling the impacts of reforestation on future climate in West Africa

This study investigates the potential impacts of reforestation in West Africa on the projected regional climate in the near two decades (2031–2050) under the SRES A1B scenario. A regional climate model (RegCM3) forced with a global circulation model (ECHAM5) simulations was used for the study. The study evaluates the capability of the regional model in simulating the present-day climate over West Africa, projects the future climate over the region and investigates impacts of seven hypothetical reforestation options on the projected future climate. Three of these reforestation options assume zonal reforestation over West Africa (i.e., over the Sahel, Savanna and Guinea), while the other four assume random reforestation over Nigeria. With the elevated GHGs (A1B scenario), a warmer and drier climate is projected over West Africa in 2031–2050. The maximum warming (+2.5°C) and drying (−2 mm day−1) occur in the western part of the Sahel because the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) flow is stronger and deflects the cool moist air more eastward, thereby lowering the warming and drying in the eastern part. In the simulations, reforestation reduces the projected warming and drying over the reforested zones but increases them outside the zones because it influences the northward progression of WAM in summer. It reduces the speed of the flow by weakening the temperature gradient that drives the flow and by increasing the surface drag on the flow over the reforested zone. Hence, in summer, the reforestation delays the onset of monsoon flow in transporting cool moist air over the area located downwind of the reforested zone, consequently enhancing the projected warming and drying over the area. The impact of reforesting Nigeria is not limited to the country; while it lowers the warming over part of the country (and over Togo), it increases the warming over Chad and Cameroon. This study, therefore, suggests that using reforestation to mitigate the projected future climate change in West Africa could have both positive and negative impacts on the regional climate, reducing temperature in some places and increasing it in others. Hence, reforestation in West Africa requires a mutual agreement among the West African nations because the impacts of reforestation do not recognize political boundaries.

Correction: Meningitis and Climate in West Africa

An image that was published alongside this article has been removed because of the image's copyright status.

A GCM study of the response of the atmospheric water cycle of West Africa and the Atlantic to Saharan dust radiative forcing

Abstract. The responses of the atmospheric water cycle and climate of West Africa and the Atlantic to radiative forcing of Saharan dust are studied using the NASA finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), coupled to a mixed layer ocean. We find evidence of an "elevated heat pump" (EHP) mechanism that underlines the responses of the atmospheric water cycle to dust forcing as follow. During the boreal summer, as a result of large-scale atmospheric feedback triggered by absorbing dust aerosols, rainfall and cloudiness are enhanced over the West Africa/Eastern Atlantic ITCZ, and suppressed over the West Atlantic and Caribbean region. Shortwave radiation absorption by dust warms the atmosphere and cools the surface, while longwave has the opposite response. The elevated dust layer warms the air over West Africa and the eastern Atlantic. As the warm air rises, it spawns a large-scale onshore flow carrying the moist air from the eastern Atlantic and the Gulf of Guinea. The onshore flow in turn enhances the deep convection over West Africa land, and the eastern Atlantic. The condensation heating associated with the ensuing deep convection drives and maintains an anomalous large-scale east-west overturning circulation with rising motion over West Africa/eastern Atlantic, and sinking motion over the Caribbean region. The response also includes a strengthening of the West African monsoon, manifested in a northward shift of the West Africa precipitation over land, increased low-level westerly flow over West Africa at the southern edge of the dust layer, and a near surface westerly jet underneath the dust layer over the Sahara. The dust radiative forcing also leads to significant changes in surface energy fluxes, resulting in cooling of the West African land and the eastern Atlantic, and warming in the West Atlantic and Caribbean. The EHP effect is most effective for moderate to highly absorbing dusts, and becomes minimized for reflecting dust with single scattering albedo at 0.95 or higher.

Meningitis and Climate in West Africa

Meningitis and Climate in West Africa

Role of the biosphere in the mid‐Holocene climate of West Africa

In previous studies, a zonally symmetric, synchronously coupled biosphere‐atmosphere model (ZonalBAM), which includes explicit representation of ecosystem dynamics, has been developed and validated based on current conditions over the region of West Africa. Here, we use ZonalBAM to study the response of the coupled biosphere‐atmosphere system to changes in the Earth's orbital forcing during the Middle Holocene (6K yrs BP) and the relative contribution of vegetation feedbacks. Simulations in which vegetation conditions were fixed to the current distribution, show that an orbitally induced increased seasonality in insolation for the Middle Holocene, by itself, results in a 1.1° northward shift in the location of the southern margin of the Sahara as compared to current solar forcings. When vegetation is allowed to be dynamic, a 2.4° northward shift is simulated. However, when dynamic vegetation is initialized to palaeovegetation, a 5.1° northward shift is simulated, bringing results more consistent with palaeoevidence. Based on previous studies on the role of the gradient of moist static energy on the dynamics of large‐scale tropical circulations, a mechanism for the enhancement of the summer monsoon circulation has been developed. Our results suggest that multiple equilibria could have coexisted over the region of West Africa during the Middle Holocene. Furthermore, based on previous studies on the current climate over the region, we hypothesize that transitions between the different equilibria could have taken place during the Middle Holocene causing the southern desert margin to migrate between 18.1°N and 21.4°N and shaping climate variability.

Application of Evapoclimatonomy to Monthly Surface Water Balance Calculations at the HAPEX-Sahel Supersites

Abstract In this paper a revised verstion of Lettau's evapoclimatonomy model is used to simulate climate in West Africa. The model is applied specifically to the study sites of the HAPEX-Sahel region in Niger, an international regional experiment to study regional-scale hydrological and energy balances of the Sahel. The model uses monthly means of precipitation potential evapotranspiration, and solar radiation from the HAPEX-Sahel observations, as well as vegetation and soil parameters adequate for the region. Evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture are determined. Differences are observed between the three vegetation types (guiera, grass, and millet) and between the three supersites.

Contrasting Conditions of Surface Water Balance in Wet Years and Dry Years as a Possible Land Surface-Atmosphere Feedback Mechanism in the West African Sahel

The climate of West Africa, in particular the Sahel, is characterized by multiyear persistence of anomalously wet or dry conditions. Its Southern Hemisphere counterpart, the Kalahari, lacks the persistence that is evident in the Sahel even though both regions are subject to similar large-scale forcing. It has been suggested that land surface-atmosphere feedback contributes to this persistence and to the severity of drought. In this study, surface energy and water balance are quantified for nine stations along a latitudinal transect that extends from the Sahara to the Guinea coast. In the wetter regions of West Africa, the difference between wet and dry years is primarily reflected in the magnitude of runoff. For the Sahel and drier locations, evapotranspiration and soil moisture are more sensitive to rainfall anomalies. The increase in evapotranspiration, and hence latent heating, over the Sahel in wet years alters the thermal structure and gradients of the overlying atmosphere and thus the strength of the African easterly jet (AEJ) at 700 mb. The difference between dry and wet Augusts corresponds to a decrease in magnitude of the AEJ at 15 deg N on the order of 2.6 m/s, which is consistent with previous studies of observed winds. Spatial patterns were also developed for surface water balance parameters for both West Africa and southern Africa. Over southern Africa, the patterns are not as spatially homogeneous as those over West Africa and are lower in magnitude, thus supporting the suggestion that the persistence of rainfall anomalies in the Sahel might be due, at least in part, to land-atmosphere feedback, and that the absence of such persistence in the Kalahari is a consequence of less significant changes in surface water and energy balance.

A Trend Towards a Longer Dry Season in South-western Nigeria

STEBBING1 has stated that the climate of West Africa was becoming increasingly drier, and that the Sahara was advancing southwards at an alarming rate. The ensuing controversy, which developed in the late 1930's, has been summarized by Jones2. During the past 50 or 100 years there has been a distinct degeneration of the vegetation in many parts of West Africa; but most workers considered this to be caused by human activity rather than by a change in climate and pointed out that there was no meteorological evidence for a progressive, rather than a cyclical, climatic change.