Climate Demands Research Articles

Institutional Alliances to Reduce Cancer Disparities in Chicago.

A partnership formed between Northeastern Illinois University (NEIU) and the Robert H. Lurie Comprehensive Cancer Center of Northwestern University sought to address well-documented cancer health disparities in Chicago by developing a collaborative research, training, and educational infrastructure between a minority-serving institution and a National Cancer Institute designated comprehensive cancer center. With a critical examination of partnership documentation and outputs, we describe the partnership's community-engaged approaches, challenges, and lessons learned. Northeastern Illinois University and the Lurie Cancer Center engaged in a yearlong partnership-building phase, identified interdisciplinary research teams, formed a governance structure, and identified collective aims. Partnership outcomes included funded inter-institutional research projects, new curriculum, and an annual research trainee program. Significant challenges faced included uncertain fiscal climate, widespread turnover, and dissimilar institutional demands. Lessons learned from this minority serving institution and comprehensive cancer center partnership may be useful for bridging distinct academic communities in the pursuit of ameliorating health disparities.

Harnessing Green Engineering for Eco-Friendly Housing and Utilities in South-Asian Countries

This paper reviews the recent development in green materials employed for eco-friendly construction in the context of developing countries, where climatic change and limited resource demand cost effective and sustainable materials of construction. The paper reviews some of the important fundamentals on which green engineering is based and shows how the advantages offered by green materials can be harnessed for societal, economic and technological benefits. The proliferation of nanotechnology in construction has filled many of the holes left by traditional technologies. The mountain and hilly regions is the primary target in South Asia in this review as these areas in Pakistan and similar geographical regions are still far behind in harnessing the benefits of green engineering. New methods of collection of safe drinking water, using Nano materials and treatment of snow melted and rain water are reviewed. The design of roofs in cold and snow bound areas and new green materials developed for such areas are also discussed. The article describes the latest Nano eco-friendly materials which may be employed to minimize energy, increase life cycle and decrease carbon foot points for longer and healthier lives. This paper also dwells on the proper use of green Nano materials for constructing houses in developing countries.

Tepary Bean: A Climate Smart Crop for Food and Nutritional Security

The variability of climate demands the use of a variety of agronomic strategies and crop choices. Traditional drought tolerant crops such as sorghum are often chosen when drought seasons are anticipated. However, there are crops, tepary bean (Phaseolus acutifolias), such as that could help increase diversity of crops that can be grown in changed climates. Trials were conducted to determine the growth of tepary bean on station and in the field. In the field it was compared to other commonly used legumes such as cowpea, Bambara nut, groundnut and pigeon pea. Tepary bean matured in 54 days after planting, the earliest among all the legumes. A second experiment was done to determine the effects of inorganic fertilizer and rhizobium inoculation on the growth and grain yield of field grown tepary bean. This was conducted in a randomized complete block design with three replications at the University of Zimbabwe Crop Science fields. The treatments were: basal fertilizer with top dressing, basal fertilizer only, top dressing fertilizer only, rhizobium with top dressing fertilizer, rhizobium only and neither control with no rhizobium or any inorganic fertilizer (control). There were significant differences in biomass yield between the treatment with basal fertilizer+top dressing and the control (P<0.05). Podding showed significant differences between treatments (P<0.05). Results showed that a combination of ammonium nitrate with either compound D or rhizobium produced similar yield. Rhizobium with top dressing fertilizer had a mean yield of 0.57 t/ha whilst basal fertilizer with top dressing had 0.60 t/ha. We conclude that resource poor farmers, affected by drought effects of climate change, can use rhizobium for optimum production of tepary bean, in variable climate and drought seasons and still get a yield. This is crucial for food and nutritional security of vulnerable households affected by climate change and variability.

A brief discussion on energy use and greenhouse gas emmision in organic farming

Organic farming has become increasingly popular in the world. This is mostly attributed to escalating consumer concerns over the impacts of pesticides and chemical fertilizers on human health as well as growing concerns over environmental pollution derived from modern agricultural practices, such as rising greenhouse gas emissions and water contaminations. But does organic farming actually displace the environmental impacts commonly associated with conventional agriculture? In this article, we analysed the recent results of environmental impacts from organic farming. The aim was to fill the gap in assessing organic farming’s relationship to climate change and evaluating sustainability of this system with a minimal energy and environmental damage over time. Despite the efforts of recent years, there is still considerable room for the environmental optimisation of organic farming systems. The lower, similar or higher impacts of organic farming, depended on crop types, site effects and differences in management intensity. The conclusions here are exploratory and act as a call to action to natural scientists to further explore how organic farming functions. Feeding the growing world population under conditions of restricted land for agricultural cultivation, restricted natural resources and changing climate demands new and innovative solutions. These solutions require the agricultural community, to address agricultural systems from a perspective of increasing the productivity per area with lower external inputs and enhancing resource use efficiency without negative effects on crop yield and system sustainability.

Avaliação da eficiência energética na iluminação pública: proposta de modelagem considerando a variabilidade climática

O objetivo deste artigo é propor uma metodologia para avaliar os impactos da variabilidade climática no consumo eficiente de energia elétrica na iluminação pública no Brasil. Foi aplicado o Método por Demanda Climática (MDC) e calculado a economia de energia das ações do Programa Nacional de Iluminação Pública Eficiente (ReLuz) em 2005, considerando a climatologia mensal de insolação, desagregadas por mesorregiões brasileiras. Pelo MDC, a economia total de energia na iluminação pública em 2005 foi estimado em 63 GWh/ano ou 1,39% superior do valor determinado pelo ReLuz/Eletrobrás e uma redução na demanda de ponta de aproximadamente 15 MW, considerando os quase 393 mil pontos atendidos no ReLuz neste ano. Os resultados indicam que, além da diferença de latitude, a variabilidade climática nas diferentes mesorregiões é um fator que amplia em até 19% o tempo de utilização diário das lâmpadas na iluminação pública. Além disso, devido às dimensões do Brasil, os padrões de sazonalidade na economia de energia não são homogêneos e tem uma correlação entre a variabilidade mensal de insolação e a latitude das mesorregiões avaliadas. O uso do MDC também demostrou ser adequado para determinar um ranking das mesorregiões com os maiores índices de economia de energia por ponto de iluminação pública.

Kearney and West Side RECs: Studies of sorghum's adaptation to drought push the frontiers of crop improvement

News from the RECs Starting with this issue, California Agriculture will publish a regular feature on projects at UC ANR’s Research and Extension Centers Kearney and West Side RECs: Studies of sorghum’s adaptation to drought push the frontiers of crop improvement W ith the climate changing and demands on water resources growing, crops that can survive drought are near the top of the global agricultural wish list. But drought tolerance has so far confounded plant researchers. One problem is that it involves many complex relationships: a host of genes that activate when a plant is short of water; soil microbes that interact with plant roots. Another difficulty has been that plants respond differently to water stress when they are grown outdoors rather than indoors, meaning that greenhouse-based findings haven’t translated well to the field. Peggy Lemaux Two new research projects involving the Kearney and West Side Research and Extension Centers (RECs) are taking on these challenges, using a mul- tifaceted, field-based approach West Side REC director Bob Hutmacher with sorghum as their subject. collects a soil sample next to a sorghum The knowledge gained could lead plant to evaluate the microbial eventually to the ability to control population around sorghum roots. the mechanisms of drought toler- ance and the development of im- proved varieties of sorghum and other crops. “We may be able to find ways to manipulate those character- istics to enable drought toler- ance and water use efficiency,” said Kearney REC director Jeff Dahlberg. “That’s the ultimate pie-in-the-sky goal.” The projects are funded by recent grants from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) — one from the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Program and the other from the Advanced Research Project Agency-Energy (ARPA-E). The two DOE programs support the study of microbes and plants for sustainable biofuel production. 208 CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURE • VOLUME 69 , NUMBER 4 Sorghum, in addition to being a staple food grain in much of the world, is promising as a bioenergy crop and as a substitute for corn silage in livestock rations. It is a good candidate for improved drought tolerance in part because it already handles water stress better than many other crops, including its close relative, corn. The grain emerged as a food crop in drought- prone areas of Africa, and existing varieties exhibit a range of traits that help the crop endure periods of scarce water. Peggy Lemaux, a UC ANR Cooperative Extension specialist based at UC Berkeley, is the principal in- vestigator on the 5-year, $12.3 million BER-funded project awarded in September. Using field plots of sorghum at Kearney and West Side RECs, the project will investigate what’s known as the epigenetics of drought tolerance — the ways in which certain genes are activated in response to water stress, Lemaux said. These mechanisms, which allow rapid adjustments to stresses, can change the plant’s physiology to better cope with reduced moisture. The project also will investigate how microbes in the soil may interact with sorghum to enhance its drought tolerance. Compounds produced by microbes may act as signals, touching off epigenetic or other responses that help sorghum plants survive a long dry stretch, Lemaux said. Microbial populations also might enhance delivery of water and nutrients to a sorghum plant’s roots and trigger them to produce en- zymes and plant hormones that influence its growth and yield. Lemaux noted that the BER project takes advan- tage of UC ANR’s institutional structure, partnering campus-based Agricultural Experiment Station (AES) faculty and Cooperative Extension specialists with researchers based at the RECs. The project’s collabo- rators also include a UC Berkeley faculty member in statistics and DOE researchers based at the Joint Genome Institute and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). It’s a powerful combination of laboratory and field expertise and resources, Lemaux said. “We couldn’t do it without them, and they couldn’t do it without us,” Lemaux said of the collaboration be- tween campus- and REC-based researchers.

Irrigation scenarios for artichokes and dry bean as a result of soil variability on the basis of resistivity mapping in southwest Italy

This work aims at comparing irrigation strategies on the basis of deficit irrigation and soil spatial variability assessed through electrical resistivity mapping (ERM) conducted by an automatic resistivity profiler on-the-go sensor. Profiles chosen along a range of soil electrical resistivity showed different soil properties linked to water holding capacity within a field, with total available water (TAW) values of the coarser-textured zone corresponding to about 50% of TAW in the finertextured zone within the field. Multi-year weather data were obtained on a daily basis and scenarios were developed for climatic demand conditions representing dry average and wet years. The ISAREG water balance and irrigation scheduling model was afterwards applied to the different soil profiles and with different strategies for full and deficit irrigation, to compute water and irrigation requirements as well as related yield impacts of deficit irrigation for artichokes and dry beans. Deficit irrigation allowed calculated water savings up to about 50% for the winter crop and 33% for the summer crop with yield losses lower than 10%. Irrigation requirements within irrigation strategy were 10 to 44% different between profiles, and this indicates that soil visualization techniques such as ERM can be used for the identification of zones for site-specific irrigation management.

Measuring Spatio-temporal Trends in Residential Landscape Irrigation Extent and Rate in Los Angeles, California Using SPOT-5 Satellite Imagery

Irrigation is a large component of urban water budgets in semi-arid regions and is critical for the management of landscape vegetation and water resources. This is particularly true for Mediterranean climate cities such as Los Angeles, where water availability is limited during dry summers. These interactions were examined by using 10-m resolution satellite imagery and a database of monthly water use records for all residential water customers in Los Angeles in order to map vegetation greenness, the extent and distribution of irrigated areas, and irrigation rates. A water conservation ratio between rates of irrigation and vegetation water demand was calculated to assess over-irrigation. The analyses were conducted for the water years (WY) 2005–2007, which included wet, average, and dry extremes of annual rainfall. Although outdoor water usage was highest in the dry year, vegetation greenness could not be maintained as well as in wetter years, suggesting that lower greenness was due to water stress. However, annual rainfall from WY 2005 to 2007 did not significantly influence the variability in the magnitude and spatial pattern of irrigation, with mean irrigated rates ranging only from 81 to 86 mm. The water conservation ratio showed that 7 % of the postal carrier routes across the city were over-irrigated in the dry year, but 43 % were over-irrigated in the wet year. This was largely because the climatic demand for water by vegetation decreased in wet years, but irrigation rates changed little from year-to-year. This overwatering can be addressed by water conservation, planning and public education, especially in the current California drought. The approach demonstrated here should be transferable to other cities in semi-arid climates.

Are Individualism and “Masculinity” Related When Controlling for Regional Proximity? A Reappraisal of Barry (2015)

Barry recently attributed the non-significant relationship between the cultural dimensions of Individualism (IND) and Masculinity (MASC) to a suppression effect of regional differences. Pairing countries on regional proximity, he showed that a strong correlation between these cultural dimensions emerged. However, we point to significant issues with this analysis, including how countries were paired, ordered, and included/excluded, as well as in the cultural meaningfulness of regional proximity. Re-analysis of the data after addressing these issues shows that IND and MASC were not significantly related at a cultural level after controlling for regional proximity, nor after controlling for two other prominent geographic factors: latitude and climate demands. The weight of evidence suggests that IND and MASC are not correlated at a cultural level.

A hybrid framework for assessing socioeconomic drought: Linking climate variability, local resilience, and demand

AbstractSocioeconomic drought broadly refers to conditions whereby the water supply cannot satisfy the demand. Most previous studies describe droughts based on large‐scale meteorological/hydrologic conditions, ignoring the demand and local resilience to cope with climate variability. Reservoirs provide resilience against climatic extremes and play a key role in water supply and demand management. Here we outline a unique multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI). The model combines information on the inflow and reservoir storage relative to the demand. MSRRI combines (I) a “top‐down” approach that focuses on processes/phenomena that cannot be simply controlled or altered by decision makers, such as climate change and variability, and (II) a “bottom‐up” methodology that represents the local resilience and societal capacity to respond or adapt to droughts. MSRRI is based on a nonparametric multivariate distribution function that links inflow‐demand reliability indicator to water storage resilience indicator. These indicators are used to assess socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium drought (1998–2010) and the 2011–2014 California drought. The results show that MSRRI is superior to univariate indices because it captures both early onset and persistence of water stress over time. The suggested framework can be applied to both individual reservoirs and a group of reservoirs in a region, and it is consistent with the currently available standardized drought indicators. MSRRI provides complementary information on socioeconomic drought development and recovery based on reservoir storage and demand that cannot be achieved from the commonly used drought indicators.

Crise hídrica na Macrometrópole Paulista e respostas da sociedade civil

O objetivo deste artigo é discutir a situação atual de escassez hídrica na Região Macrometropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil, centrado numa realidade que aflige o conjunto de represas responsável por abastecer nove milhões de habitantes na Grande São Paulo à luz do referencial teórico da governança da água. O foco da reflexão se centra na necessidade de revisão da atual política de governança da água. Há a necessidade de enfrentar o uso insustentável da água, na medida em que as mudanças climáticas demandam a gestão do risco e a necessidade de promover transparência e accountability na gestão pública. As consequências sociais, políticas e econômicas que a escassez de água acarreta ao estado de São Paulo coloca a necessidade de mudanças profundas na governança da água nesse complexo cenário. Nesse sentido, o artigo se propõe mostrar que a problemática da falta de um modelo de governança eficaz e equitativo demanda novas respostas que integrem os diversos atores por meio de uma rede de ação pela água.

Robust climate scenarios for sites with sparse observations: a two‐step bias correction approach

ABSTRACTObserved and projected climatic changes demand for robust assessments of climate impacts on various environmental and anthropogenic systems. Empirical‐statistical downscaling (ESD) methods coupled to output from climate model projections are promising tools to assess impacts at regional to local scale. ESD methods correct for common model deficiencies in accuracy (e.g. model biases) and scale (e.g. grid vs point scale). However, most ESD methods require long observational time series at the target sites, and this often restricts robust impact assessments to a small number of sites. This paper presents a method to generate robust climate model based scenarios for target sites with short and (or) sparse observational data coverage. The approach is based on the well‐established quantile mapping method and incorporates two major steps: (1) climate model bias correction to the most representative station with long‐term measurements and (2) spatial transfer of bias‐corrected model data to represent target site characteristics. Both steps are carried out using the quantile mapping technique. The resulting output can serve as end user–tailored input for climate impact models. The method allows for multivariate and multi‐model ensemble scenarios and additionally enables to approximately reconstruct data for non‐measured periods. The method's applicability is validated using (1) long‐term weather stations across the topographically and climatologically complex territory of Switzerland and (2) sparse data sets from Swiss permafrost research sites located in challenging conditions at high altitudes. It is shown that the two‐step approach performs well and offers attractive quality, even for extreme target locations. Uncertainties, however, remain and primarily depend on (1) data availability and (2) the considered variable. The two‐step approach itself involves large uncertainties when applied to short reference data sets or spatially heterogeneous variables (e.g. precipitation, wind speed). For temperature, results are promising even when using very short calibration periods.

Surgeon-estimated costs of common consumables in otolaryngology.

The current fiscal climate demands increasing emphasis on curbing hospital expenses incurred from surgical procedures. Disposable instruments and consumables play a major role, but the end user (the surgeon) is often unaware of the cost of these materials. The objectives of our study were: 1) to assess knowledge of costs of disposable instruments and consumable products, and 2) to gauge interest in greater access to cost information and its potential to change practice. We used a cross-sectional survey study to meet our study's objectives. A paper-based anonymous questionnaire was administered in the Department of Otolaryngology at McGill University and at Western University asking for estimations of costs of 23 commonly used products in the operating room. Our primary outcome measure was accuracy of cost estimations, which were considered accurate if within ± 50% of the true cost at the respective institution. The average accuracy was 29.9% (standard deviation = 16.7%). There was no significant difference between residents (32.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.2%-54.7%) and staff (28.3%, 95% CI: 11.0%-45.6%). Less than 10% of participants were able to accurately estimate the costs of at least half of the disposable products. The majority of participants (82%) felt that greater information would change their use of consumables. Surgical residents and staff have a generally poor knowledge of the cost of common consumable products used in the operating room. There is potential for increased awareness of costs to change behavior. NA.

Design method for a local energy cooperative network using distributed energy technologies

Abstract We propose a method for designing a local energy cooperative network (EneCoN) that uses new technologies for heating and power in a combined way. The method comprises six steps, including the generation of different technology options, energy balance modeling of the demand and supply, and multiobjective evaluation and optimization. As a decision-support tool, ternary diagrams are applied to analyze the effect of the mix of energy consumers in an EneCoN (i.e., residents, offices, or hospitals) on the objective function. The overall outcome of applying the method is a suggestion for the technology mix in the EneCoN that minimizes design objectives such as cost and environmental impacts with consideration of the mix of energy consumers as a design parameter. A case study was conducted on the installation of photovoltaic power generators, solar heat collectors, and fuel cells as new energy technologies in the target cities Tokyo, Sapporo, and Naha. Differences in the climate and energy demand profile were well reflected in the calculation, and different suggestions for the technology mix were obtained. The method also allowed good visualization of various complex design options (e.g., consumers, technology types, and the degree of combination) and can serve as a solid basis for designing energy systems.

Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens’ attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth—two key variables for climato-economic theory—predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

Money makes the (medical assessment) world go round: The cost of components of a summative final year Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE)

Introduction: The widely used Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) is undoubtedly expensive. Cost-effectiveness is one of the components of the assessment utility index defining its usefulness. Our current financial climate demands increased transparency in the costs associated with medical education and it is now vital to ascertain how much is spent on assessments, such as the OSCE, and in particular costs associated with the different types of stations within the OSCE.Methods: A retrospective case-study approach was used to identify all costs associated with the development, production, administration and post-examination phases of the 2013 final year MBChB OSCE at the University of Aberdeen, Scotland. This 15 station OSCE was held over 2 days for 185 students.Results: This OSCE cost £65,328 to run. Costs per station ranged from £3108 (prescribing) to £6577 (eye examination). The cost per student was £355.Discussion: The costs of a “high stakes” OSCE are sobering. The bulk of costs identified are not modifiable in light of what is currently known about the metrics of OSCE utility, particularly reliability and validity.Conclusion: Providers, and funders, of medical education must be prepared to assign significant resource to OSCE assessment and centres should be encouraged to calculate precise costs associated with assessment to inform resource allocation decisions.

Challenges and opportunities in genetic improvement of local livestock breeds.

Sufficient genetic variation in livestock populations is necessary both for adaptation to future changes in climate and consumer demand, and for continual genetic improvement of economically important traits. Unfortunately, the current trend is for reduced genetic variation, both within and across breeds. The latter occurs primarily through the loss of small, local breeds. Inferior production is a key driver for loss of small breeds, as they are replaced by high-output international transboundary breeds. Selection to improve productivity of small local breeds is therefore critical for their long term survival. The objective of this paper is to review the technology options available for the genetic improvement of small local breeds and discuss their feasibility. Most technologies have been developed for the high-input breeds and consequently are more favorably applied in that context. Nevertheless, their application in local breeds is not precluded and can yield significant benefits, especially when multiple technologies are applied in close collaboration with farmers and breeders. Breeding strategies that require cooperation and centralized decision-making, such as optimal contribution selection, may in fact be more easily implemented in small breeds.

Development of Condition Indicator for Managing Sealed Rural Road Networks

Rural roads may be defined as low-volume roads that provide access and mobility to rural populations. In developing countries they commonly represent 80% of the total road network length and play a key role in economic and social development. Rural roads are divided into unsealed (gravel and earth) and sealed roads (roads with thin bituminous surfaces and stabilized roads). Network management methods recommend the use of objective condition evaluations, such as the pavement condition index and the unpaved roads condition indicator, to assist in decision making. However, none of these indicators properly apply to sealed rural roads; the performance of these roads is different because of climate and traffic demands. The lack of an objective indicator specially calibrated for sealed rural roads was addressed in this study. The main goal was to calibrate a condition indicator for managing sealed rural road networks. As a result of the study, a condition indicator that was preliminarily developed for double treatment surfaces was successfully validated for thin bituminous surfaces. In addition, a stabilized roads condition index (SRCI) was developed on the basis of field evaluations of various surface distresses observed in stabilized roads, which were contrasted with the evaluations of an expert panel. Two forms of the SRCI were calibrated: with and without roughness. Finally, a qualitative scale ranging from very good condition to very poor condition was defined for thin bituminous surfaces and stabilized roads, on the basis of the effect of three types of climates and roads hierarchy.

Soybean Seed Co-Inoculation with &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Bradyrhizobium&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt; spp. and &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Azospirillum brasilense&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;: A New Biotechnological Tool to Improve Yield and Sustainability

Legume nodulation by rhizobia can supply crops with nitrogen and reduce environmental impacts caused by chemical fertilization. The soybean crop in Brazil is an impressive example of how biological N2 fixation can be employed with a plant species of high economic value. However, the development of more productive cultivars, along with the increasing global climatic changes demand agricultural practices to become more productive and yet more environmentally friendly. Plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) are highly beneficial to agriculture worldwide, acting in plant nutrition, protection, and growth stimulation. Azospirillum is, certainly, the most employed PGPR in the world, but little is known about its interaction with rhizobia, when both are applied to legume seeds. We have evaluated the co-inoculation of bradyrhizobia and azospirilla on soybean seeds under different soil and climate conditions in Brazil. Our results demonstrated that co-inoculation is efficient and beneficial to the crop, and promotes yield increases without adding any chemical N fertilizers even in soils where established populations of soybean bradyrhizobia exist. The strategy of co-inoculation thus represents a new biotechnological tool to improve soybean yield without adding any chemical N fertilizers, thus contributing to current practices of sustainability in agriculture.

The vulnerability of hydropower production in the Zambezi River Basin to the impacts of climate change and irrigation development

The Zambezi River Basin in southern Africa is relatively undeveloped from both a hydropower and irrigated agriculture perspective, despite the existence of the large Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. Accelerating economic growth increases the potential for competition for water between hydropower and irrigated agriculture, and climate change will add additional stresses to this system. The objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of major existing and planned new hydropower plants to changes in climate and upstream irrigation demand. Our results show that Kariba is highly vulnerable to a drying climate, potentially reducing average electricity generation by 12 %. Furthermore, the expansion of Kariba generating capacity is unlikely to deliver the expected increases in production even under a favourable climate. The planned Batoka Gorge plant may also not be able to reach the anticipated production levels from the original feasibility study. Cahora Bassa’s expansion is viable under a wetting climate, but its potential is less likely to be realised under a drying climate. The planned Mphanda Nkuwa plant can reach expected production levels under both climates if hydropower is given water allocation priority, but not if irrigation is prioritised, which is likely. For both Cahora Bassa and Mphanda Nkuwa, prioritising irrigation demand over hydropower could severely compromise these plants’ output. Therefore, while climate change is the most important overall driver of variation in hydropower potential, increased irrigation demand will also have a major negative impact on downstream plants in Mozambique. This implies that climate change and upstream development must be explicitly incorporated into both project and system expansion planning.