Climate Datasets Research Articles

Understanding Academic and Athletic Transfer Patterns for Latina/o College Athletes

Using the Student Athlete Climate Dataset, this paper examined factors associated with Latina/o college athletes’ intent to transfer for academic and athletic reasons. This study offers insight regarding how gender, NCAA Division, and geographic location can influence Latina/o college athletes’ decision to transfer. In addition, the roles of faculty members and head coaches were significant in Latina/o college athletes’ intent to transfer for athletic reasons.

Interpolation of environmental data using deep learning and model inference

The temporal resolution of environmental data sets plays a major role in the granularity of the information that can be derived from the data. In most cases, it is required that different data sets have a common temporal resolution to enable their consistent evaluations and applications in making informed decisions. This study leverages deep learning with long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks and model inference to enhance the temporal resolution of climate datasets, specifically temperature, and precipitation, from daily to sub-daily scales. We trained our model to learn the relationship between daily and sub-daily data, subsequently applying this knowledge to increase the resolution of a separate dataset with a coarser (daily) temporal resolution. Our findings reveal a high degree of accuracy for temperature predictions, evidenced by a correlation of 0.99 and a mean absolute error of 0.21 °C, between the actual and predicted sub-daily values. In contrast, the approach was less effective for precipitation, achieving an explained variance of only 37%, compared to 98% for temperature. Further, besides the sub-daily interpolation of the climate data sets, we adapted our approach to increase the resolution of the Normalized difference vegetation index of Landsat (from 16 d to 5 d interval) using the LSTM model pre-trained from the Sentinel 2 Normalized difference vegetation index—that exists at a relatively higher temporal resolution. The explained variance between the predicted Landsat and Sentinel 2 data is 70% with a mean absolute error of 0.03. These results suggest that our method is particularly suitable for environmental datasets with less pronounced short-term variability, offering a promising tool for improving the resolution and utility of the data.

Relative humidity, temperature, and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy: Findings from the Project Viva cohort

BackgroundPreeclampsia is a multi-system hypertensive disorder of pregnancy that is a leading cause of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Prior studies disagree on the cause and even the presence of seasonal patterns in its incidence. Using unsuitable time windows for seasonal exposures can bias model results, potentially explaining these inconsistencies. ObjectivesWe aimed to investigate humidity and temperature as possible causes for seasonal trends in preeclampsia in Project Viva, a prebirth cohort in Boston, Massachusetts, considering only exposure windows that precede disease onset. MethodsUsing the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Climate Dataset, we estimated daily residential temperature and relative humidity (RH) exposures during pregnancy. Our primary multinomial regression adjusted for person-level covariates and season. Secondary analyses included distributed lag models (DLMs) and adjusted for ambient air pollutants including fine particulates (PM2.5). We used Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) for systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories across hypertensive disorder statuses to confirm exposure timing. ResultsWhile preeclampsia is typically diagnosed late in pregnancy, GAMM-fitted SBP trajectories for preeclamptic and non-preeclamptic women began to diverge at around 20 weeks’ gestation, confirming the need to only consider early exposures. In the primary analysis with 1776 women, RH in the early second trimester, weeks 14–20, was associated with significantly higher odds of preeclampsia (OR per IQR increase: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.10, 2.97). The DLM corroborated this window, finding a positive association from weeks 12–20. There were no other significant associations between RH or temperature and preeclampsia or gestational hypertension in any other time period. DiscussionThe association between preeclampsia and RH in the early second trimester was robust to model choice, suggesting that RH may contribute to seasonal trends in preeclampsia incidence. Differences between these results and those of prior studies could be attributable to exposure timing differences.

Predicting wheat yield gap and its determinants combining remote sensing, machine learning, and survey approaches in rainfed Mediterranean regions of Morocco

Wheat plays a crucial role in Morocco’s food security, economic stability, and livelihoods of farming communities. Assessing key vegetation indices (as yield predictors), along with understanding potential yield, yield gap, and major determinants for this gap at regional and national scales, is vital for improving food security with resilience in variable climatic conditions. Analysing the yield gap and its causes during drought and optimal weather conditions can reduce crop failure risks and enhance productivity specially in variable rainfed production systems. This study aimed to develop scalable methodology to predict field- and landscape-level yield and yield gaps for wheat and their underlying causes examplifying Morocco’s rainfed production environment combining remote sensing, machine learning, and ground information. By analysing six vegetation indices (EVI2, CGVI, MSR, NDVI, OSAVI, and RVI) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery (10 m resolution) over three successive growing seasons (2018–2019, 2019–2020, and 2020–2021), the study employed advanced vegetation index models for accurate prediction of wheat yields and yield gaps at plot and on a larger regional scale within the Rabat-Sale-Kenitra region. To identify the determinants of yield gap, climate and soil datasets were merged with crop management information and the random forest model was fine-tuned and assessed for each season and cumulatively. The findings highlighted that RVI, GCVI, and NDVI vegetation indices were particularly effective in predicting wheat yields, showing the highest R2 and the lowest prediction errors (RMSE). Such predictive methodologies are crucial for policymakers to proactively plan and mitigate risk minimization and adaption plans at regional and national levels. The models predicted rainfed potential yields of 5.99, 1.53, and 4.66 t ha−1, with corresponding yield gap of 3.38, 0.73, and 1.58 t ha−1 for the seasons of 2018/2019 (favorable); 2019/2020 (drought) and 2020/2021 (favorable), respectively. Across three periods, critical factors determining yield include soil moisture, total rainfall during the crop growing period, evapotranspiration, and soil texture and carbon content. To minimize drought risks and maximize benefits during variable rainfall conditions, it is essential to implement pre-season drought forecasts, customize seeding dates based on soil moisture, adopt technologies that enhance soil moisture retention, and utilize climate-adapted farming practices in the semi-arid and arid rainfed regions.

Observed and future shifts in climate zone of Borneo based on CMIP6 models

Climate change has significantly altered the characteristics of climate zones, posing considerable challenges to ecosystems and biodiversity, particularly in Borneo, known for its high species density per unit area. This study aimed to classify the region into homogeneous climate groups based on long-term average behavior. The most effective parameters from the high-resolution daily gridded Princeton climate datasets spanning 65 years (1950–2014) were utilized, including rainfall, relative humidity (RH), temperatures (Tavg, Tmin, Tmax, and diurnal temperature range (DTR)), along with elevation data at 0.25° resolution. The FCM clustering method outperformed K-Mean and two Ward's hierarchical methods (WardD and WardD2) in classifying Borneo's climate zones based on multi-criteria assessment, exhibiting the lowest average distance (2.172–2.180) and the highest compromise programming index (CPI)-based correlation ranking among cluster averages across all climate parameters. Borneo's climate zones were categorized into four: ‘Wet and cold’ (WC) and ‘Wet’ (W) representing wetter zones, and ‘Wet and hot’ (WH) and ‘Dry and hot’ (DH) representing hotter zones, each with clearly defined boundaries. For future projection, EC-Earth3-Veg ranked first for all climate parameters across 961 grid points, emerging as the top-performing model. The linear scaling (LS) bias-corrected EC-Earth3-Veg model, as shown in the Taylor diagram, closely replicated the observed datasets, facilitating future climate zone reclassification. Improved performance across parameters was evident based on MAE (35.8–94.6%), MSE (57.0–99.5%), NRMSE (42.7–92.1%), PBIAS (100–108%), MD (23.0–85.3%), KGE (21.1–78.1%), and VE (5.1–9.1%), with closer replication of empirical probability distribution function (PDF) curves during the validation period. In the future, Borneo's climate zones will shift notably, with WC elongating southward along the mountainous spine, W forming an enclave over the north-central mountains, WH shifting northward and shrinking inland, and DH expanding northward along the western coast. Under SSP5-8.5, WC is expected to expand by 39% and 11% for the mid- and far-future periods, respectively, while W is set to shrink by 46%. WH is projected to expand by 2% and 8% for the mid- and far-future periods, respectively. Conversely, DH is expected to expand by 43% for the far-future period but shrink by 42% for the mid-future period. This study fills a gap by redefining Borneo's climate zones based on an increased number of effective parameters and projecting future shifts, utilizing advanced clustering methods (FCM) under CMIP6 scenarios. Importantly, it contributes by ranking GCMs using RIMs and CPI across multiple climate parameters, addressing a previous gap in GCM assessment. The study's findings can facilitate cross-border collaboration by providing a shared understanding of climate dynamics and informing joint environmental management and disaster response efforts.

Applicability of data-driven methods in modeling electricity demand-climate nexus: A tale of Singapore and Hong Kong

Predicting electricity demand at city level is vital for stakeholders. There are various data-driven methods in electricity consumption prediction, but their applicability to forecast monthly electricity demand has yet to be systematically explored. This study examines several widely used data-driven methods, namely multiple linear regression (MLR), machine learning (ML) method including support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF), and deep learning (DL) method including long short-term memory network (LSTM) and LSTM-gated recurrent unit (GRU), for long-term energy prediction using climatic and historical electricity datasets in Singapore (2005–2019) and Hong Kong (1975–2019). In Singapore, ML outperforms other methods in terms of statistical criteria and time series plots, and SVM provides the best accuracy with mean absolute percentile error (MAPE) of 2.55 %, while MLR exhibits the worst accuracy with MAPE of 3.1 %. In Hong Kong, DL surpasses ML in terms of statistical criteria, time series stability, and generalization ability. MLR achieves the best overall prediction accuracy with R2 up to 0.95 but shows poor ability for predicting peak and low electricity consumption, while LSTM exhibits the smallest bias in these months. RF shows strong overfitting issues in both cities. Overall, SVM and LSTM are recommended for small and large datasets, respectively.

Drought deciles index for spatial and temporal assessment of satellite-based precipitation datasets

Obtaining precise and long-term precipitation datasets is vital for addressing hydrological and climatic concerns. Limitation of drought recurrent characterizing and its impact in Iraq have been hampered primarily by unavailability of reliable climate data sets. This work assesses the performance of four gridded precipitation products (GPDs), APHRODITE for the period (1983–2007), CHIRPS for the period (1983–2017), PERSIANN for the period (1983–2017) to evaluate their potential for drought monitoring. This was accomplished by analyzing their ability to estimate the Drought Deciles Index (DDI) at multiple time scales (1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and 24-month) across 22 ground stations (GS) in semi-arid Iraq during the period 1970–2018. The study area was divided into three zones based on Köppen's climate classifications. The results confirmed the potential of GPDs for monitoring drought in Iraq. Their performance was stronger for shorter time scales with time scales of 1, 3, and 6 and becomes weaker for time scales of 12 and 24. Furthermore, better performance of GPD found at locations with higher annual precipitation rates and altitudes. Overall, APHRODITE and TRMM showed the greatest potential for accurately representing GS. In addition, it is revealed that the DDI's was capable for effectively analyzing and monitoring drought periods in Iraq.

Identifying atmospheric rivers and their poleward latent heat transport with generalizable neural networks: ARCNNv1

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extreme weather events that can alleviate drought or cause billions of US dollars in flood damage. By transporting significant amounts of latent energy towards the poles, they are crucial to maintaining the climate system's energy balance. Since there is no first-principle definition of an AR grounded in geophysical fluid mechanics, AR identification is currently performed by a multitude of expert-defined, threshold-based algorithms. The variety of AR detection algorithms has introduced uncertainty into the study of ARs, and the thresholds of the algorithms may not generalize to new climate datasets and resolutions. We train convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to detect ARs while representing this uncertainty; we name these models ARCNNs. To detect ARs without requiring new labeled data and labor-intensive AR detection campaigns, we present a semi-supervised learning framework based on image style transfer. This framework generalizes ARCNNs across climate datasets and input fields. Using idealized and realistic numerical models, together with observations, we assess the performance of the ARCNNs. We test the ARCNNs in an idealized simulation of a shallow-water fluid in which nearly all the tracer transport can be attributed to AR-like filamentary structures. In reanalysis and a high-resolution climate model, we use ARCNNs to calculate the contribution of ARs to meridional latent heat transport, and we demonstrate that this quantity varies considerably due to AR detection uncertainty.

Exploring the impact of the recent global warming on extreme weather events in Central Asia using the counterfactual climate data ATTRICI v1.1

We study the impact of recent global warming on extreme climatic events in Central Asia (CA) for 1901-2019 by comparing the composite representation of the observational climate with a hypothetical counterfactual one that does not include the long-term global warming trend. The counterfactual climate data are produced based on a simple detrending approach, using the global mean temperature (GMT) as the independent variable and removing the long-term trends from the climate variables of the observational data. This trend elimination is independent of causality, and the day-to-day variability in the counterfactual climate remains preserved. The analysis done in the paper shows that the increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature and precipitation events can be attributed to global warming. Specifically, the probability of experiencing a +7 K temperature anomaly event in CA increases by up to a factor of seven in some areas due to global warming. The analysis reveals a significant increase in heatwave occurrences in Central Asia, with the observational climate dataset GSWP3-W5E5 (later called also factual) showing more frequent and prolonged extreme heat events than hypothetical scenarios without global warming. This trend, evident in the disparity between factual and counterfactual data, underscores the critical impact of recent climatic changes on weather patterns, highlighting the urgent need for robust adaptation and mitigation strategies. Additionally, using the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), the sensitivity of dry and wet events to the coupled precipitation and temperature changes is analyzed. The areas under dry and wet conditions are enhanced under the observational climate compared to a counterfactual scenario, especially over the largest deserts in CA. The expansion of the dry regions aligns well with the pattern of desert development observed in CA in recent decades.

Cross-Shore Modeling Features: Calibration and Impacts of Wave Climate Uncertainties

Numerical models can be powerful tools for evaluating the best scenarios for the construction of artificial nourishments to mitigate coastal erosion. Until recent decades, when looking at medium- to long-term simulations, cross-shore and alongshore processes have been studied separately. Accounting for both processes in a shoreline evolution numerical model would improve the understanding and predictive capacity of future changes in coastline evolution. The AX-COAST project aims to develop new capacities in modeling cross-shore sediment transport processes by adding the CS-Model, a cross-shore numerical model, into the existing LTC (Long-Term Configuration) model. The LTC model is a shoreline evolution numerical model which is a module of the cost–benefit assessment tool COAST. This work presents the first steps of the CS-Model implementation, which involve evaluating its performance by calibrating the model with extensive measured datasets of wave climate, beach profiles, tide levels, etc., from coastal areas in IJmuiden and Sand Motor in the Netherlands. The results show good agreement between modeled and observed values. Additionally, wave climate datasets derived from global and regional wave models were considered to evaluate modeling performance at IJmuiden. Using derived timeseries from the wave models did not significantly lead to different results compared to using measured data. The obtained mean absolute and relative errors for each profile were low for both types of datasets. Calibration processes with consistent data are important in modeling simulations to accurately represent the study area and ensure the credibility of future simulations.

Impact of Soil Moisture Dynamics and Precipitation Pattern on UK Urban Pluvial Flood Hazards Under Climate Change

AbstractThe diversity of flood‐generating mechanisms superimposed on catchment physiographic features with non‐stationary meteorological drivers makes future flood hazard assessment a grand challenge. To date, many studies have examined patterns in rainfall and streamflow, but far fewer have investigated trends in the other drivers of flooding. The complex transfer function between precipitation and flooding makes it potentially misleading to simply look at the change in rainfall to express the hazard. Furthermore, there are very few studies that have directly used output from km‐scale climate models in flood modeling. Coarse resolution climate data sets may not credibly resolve local climate and weather extremes. Changes in rainfall distribution and antecedent moisture over extended time periods due to climate change have so far been ignored when assessing urban pluvial flood risk. In this paper, an urban flood hazard assessment framework using the latest 2.2 km resolution UK Climate Projections Local is proposed. Global warming induced changes in pluvial flood risks under RCP8.5 are projected, focusing on the impact of changing precipitation patterns and soil moisture dynamics on flood generation. Results indicate a strong increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme floods, and the resultant future (2060–2080) annual flood volume is expected to increase up to 52.6% relative to 1980–2000 over a major UK urban region, and these patterns are likely to hold more generally elsewhere in the UK. Shifts to a later occurrence of extreme flooding is identified under global warming. Previous studies that have neglected soil moisture dynamics are unlikely to give accurate flood estimates.

Enhancing vulnerability assessment through spatially explicit modeling of mountain social-ecological systems exposed to multiple environmental hazards

The evaluation of the vulnerability of coupled socio-ecological systems is critical for addressing and preventing the adverse impacts of various environmental hazards and devising strategies for climate change adaptation. The initial step in vulnerability assessment involves exposure assessment, which entails quantifying and mapping the risks posed by multiple environmental hazards, thereby offering valuable insights for the implementation of vulnerability assessment methodologies. Consequently, this study sought to model the exposure of coupled social-ecological systems in mountainous regions to various environmental hazards. By a set of socio-economic, climatic, geospatial, hydrological, and demographic data, as well as satellite imagery, and examining 11 hazards, including droughts, pests, dust storms, winds, extreme temperatures, evapotranspiration, landslides, floods, wildfires, and social vulnerability, this research employed machine learning (ML) techniques and the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). Expert opinions were utilized to guide hazard weighting and calculate the exposure index (EI). Through the precise spatial mapping of EI variations across the socio-ecological systems in mountainous areas, this investigation provides insights into vulnerability to multiple environmental hazards, thereby laying the groundwork for future endeavors in supporting national-level vulnerability assessments aimed at fostering sustainable environments. The findings reveal that social vulnerability and pests receive the highest weighting, while floods and landslides are ranked lower. All hazards demonstrate significant correlations with the EI, with droughts exhibiting the strongest correlation (r > 0.81). Spatial analysis indicates a north-south gradient in forest exposure, with southern regions showing higher exposure hotspots (EI 29.08) compared to northern areas (EI 10.60). Validation based on Area Under Curve (AUC) and Consistency Rate (CR) in FAHP demonstrates robustness, with AUC values exceeding 0.78 and CR values below 0.1. Considering the anticipated intensification of hazards, management strategies should prioritize reducing social vulnerability, restore degraded areas using drought-resistant species, combat pests, and mitigate desertification. By integrating multidisciplinary data and expert opinions, this research contributes to informed decision-making regarding sustainable forest management and climate resilience in mountain ecosystems.

ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR PV OUTPUT PERFORMANCE WITH VARYING TILT ANGLES AND WEATHER DATA FROM ERA5: CASE OF MUNTINLUPA CITY, PHILIPPINES

Abstract. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has been gaining popularity in the Philippines as an alternative source of sustainable energy. In such technology, module tilt angle and weather conditions are among the system parameters that have substantial impacts on PV system performance. Previous studies have considered either tilt angles or weather conditions, but not the combined impact of these two parameters on solar PV power output. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of weather variables and tilt angle on the output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Muntinlupa City, the Philippines. Three 120W monocrystalline solar PV panels were used and set up to three different tilt angles (i.e., 5°, 10°, and 15°). The fifth generation of the ECMWF's global climate and weather reanalysis (ERA5) dataset was used to gather hourly weather information such as surface solar radiation, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, ambient temperature, and total precipitation. Three principal components (PC), which together account for 95% of the variability, were identified using principal components analysis (PCA), which was used to address multicollinearity among the weather parameters. To assess the effects of tilt angle, time, and PCs on solar PV production, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was carried out. Results show that all weather variables, except for wind speed and total precipitation, have a significant impact on solar PV production with configuration producing the best results. Moreover, a significant difference in mean solar PV production was observed among the three tilt angles. From 6:00 AM to 2:00 PM, solar PV output gradually increases and declines thereafter. Outputs this study can help in optimizing the design and configuration of solar PV systems in the Philippines by considering weather variables and module tilt angle. Lastly, this study provides useful information for system designers, installers, and policymakers in improving energy generation and utilization, encouraging the use of renewable energy sources, and advancing sustainable energy objectives.

Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall and streamflow in the Alto Paranapanema Basin, Brazil

ABSTRACT Climate change has the potential to fundamentally transform landscapes on global scale. Leveraging advanced predictive modeling to enhance water resource management within the Alto Paranapanema Basin (Brazil), holds the potential to proactively anticipate challenges and alleviate the impacts and conflicts arising from this phenomenon. This is particularly important in a region boasting over 1,600 centerpivot irrigation systems. This study employs the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure, a physical model, to simulate long-term climate datasets and flows. Future climate scenarios, rooted in the Representative Concentration Pathways, are developed through the downscaling of Global Climate Models. The findings reveal a temporal shift in rainfall patterns, characterized by a reduction during the wet season of up to 40% compared to the average historical rainfall, and an increase throughout the dry season up to 40% compared to the same historical, estimated by the Eta -BESM model. These changes present challenges regarding to water availability, hydroelectric generation, and agricultural. By fostering collaboration among different governmental entities responsible for the managements of basins and harnessing the potential of predictive models, this research advocates for the adoption of proactive strategies in management of water resources. These strategies are imperative to effectively counteract the far-reaching effects of climate change.

Evaluation of Climatological Precipitation Datasets and Their Hydrological Application in the Hablehroud Watershed, Iran

Hydrological modeling is essential for runoff simulations in line with climate studies, especially in remote areas with data scarcity. Advancements in climatic precipitation datasets have improved the accuracy of hydrological modeling. This research aims to evaluate the APHRODITE, PERSIANN-CDR, and ERA5-Land climatic precipitation datasets for the Hablehroud watershed in Iran. The datasets were compared with interpolated ground station precipitation data using the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was utilized to simulate runoff from 1992 to 1996. The results revealed that the APHRODITE and PERSIANN-CDR datasets demonstrated the highest and lowest accuracy, respectively. The sensitivity of the model was analyzed using each precipitation dataset, and model calibration was performed using the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE). The evaluation of daily runoff simulation based on observed precipitation indicated a KGE value of 0.78 and 0.76 during the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The KGE values at the daily time scale were 0.64 and 0.77 for PERSIANN-CDR data, 0.62 and 0.75 for APHRODITE precipitation data, 0.50 and 0.66 for ERA5-Land precipitation data during the calibration and validation periods, respectively. These results indicate that despite varying sensitivity, climatic precipitation datasets present satisfactory performance, particularly in poorly gauged basins with infrequent historical datasets.

A Novel Deep Learning-Based Data Analysis Model for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation and Electrical Consumption Forecasting in the Smart Power Grid

With the installation of solar panels around the world and the permanent fluctuation of climatic factors, it is, therefore, important to provide the necessary energy in the electrical network in order to satisfy the electrical demand at all times for smart grid applications. This study first presents a comprehensive and comparative review of existing deep learning methods used for smart grid applications such as solar photovoltaic (PV) generation forecasting and power consumption forecasting. In this work, electrical consumption forecasting is long term and will consider smart meter data and socioeconomic and demographic data. Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is short term by considering climatic data such as solar irradiance, temperature, and humidity. Moreover, we have proposed a novel hybrid deep learning method based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), and genetic algorithm (GA). We then simulated all the deep learning methods on a climate and electricity consumption dataset for the city of Douala. Electrical consumption data are collected from smart meters installed at consumers in Douala. Climate data are collected at the climate management center in the city of Douala. The results obtained show the outperformance of the proposed optimized method based on deep learning in the both electrical consumption and PV power generation forecasting and its superiority compared to basic methods of deep learning such as support vector machine (SVM), MLP, recurrent neural network (RNN), and random forest algorithm (RFA).

Robust estimation of smooth graph signals from randomized space–time samples

Abstract Heat diffusion processes have found wide applications in modelling dynamical systems over graphs. In this paper, we consider the recovery of a $k$-bandlimited graph signal that is an initial signal of a heat diffusion process from its space–time samples. We propose three random space–time sampling regimes, termed dynamical sampling techniques, that consist in selecting a small subset of space–time nodes at random according to some probability distribution. We show that the number of space–time samples required to ensure stable recovery for each regime depends on a parameter called the spectral graph weighted coherence, which depends on the interplay between the dynamics over the graphs and sampling probability distributions. In optimal scenarios, as little as $\mathcal{O}(k \log (k))$ space–time samples are sufficient to ensure accurate and stable recovery of all $k$-bandlimited signals. Dynamical sampling typically requires much fewer spatial samples than the static case by leveraging the temporal information. Then, we propose a computationally efficient method to reconstruct $k$-bandlimited signals from their space–time samples. We prove that it yields accurate reconstructions and that it is also stable to noise. Finally, we test dynamical sampling techniques on a wide variety of graphs. The numerical results on synthetic and real climate datasets support our theoretical findings and demonstrate the efficiency.

Sensitivity of Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to the choice of SPEI probability distribution and evapotranspiration method

Study regionThe state of Oklahoma located in the Southern Plains region of the United States. Study focusThe standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is a widely used meteorological drought index that incorporates potential evapotranspiration (PET) into a precipitation-based index. However, the understanding of the appropriate PET method for SPEI across different temporal scales in non-arid climate conditions remains limited. We compared Thornthwaite (TW), Hargreaves (HG), and Penman-Monteith (PM) equations for SPEI at various accumulations, considering three temporal scales: 1) long-term (25 years), 2) event-based, and 3) monthly. Also, we examined the log-logistic and generalized extreme value distributions to test the normality of SPEI computed from the three PET methods. To do this, we utilized high-quality climate datasets measured at 107 stations across the state of Oklahoma, United States, which has a diverse climate ranging from semi-arid to humid subtropical. New hydrological insights for the regionThe log-logistic distribution was found to be suitable for SPEI. The SPEI-HG showed better agreement with SPEI-PM than SPEI-TW in this region for the analyses of three temporal scales. However, for accumulations of SPEI longer than one year, both TW and HG equations showed no significant differences with SPEI-PM. The findings provide practical guidance for selecting an appropriate PET equation in the Southern Plains region depending on the purpose of study without resorting to data-intensive methods for PET estimation.

Intraspecific niche models for the invasive ambrosia beetle Xylosandrus crassiusculus suggest contrasted responses to climate change.

Xylosandrus crassiusculus is an invasive ambrosia beetle comprising two differentiated genetic lineages, named cluster 1 and cluster 2. These lineages invaded different parts of the world at different periods of time. We tested whether they exhibited different climatic niches using Schoener's D and Hellinger's I indices and modeled their current potential geographical ranges using the Maxent algorithm. The resulting models were projected according to future and recent past climate datasets for Europe and the Mediterranean region. The future projections were performed for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 using 3 SSPs and 5 GCMs. The genetic lineages exhibited different climate niches. Parts of Europe, the Americas, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Oceania were evaluated as suitable for cluster 1. Parts of Europe, South America, Central and South Africa, Asia, and Oceania were considered as suitable for cluster 2. Models projection under future climate scenarios indicated a decrease in climate suitability in Southern Europe and an increase in North Eastern Europe in 2071-2100. Most of Southern and Western Europe was evaluated as already suitable for both clusters in the early twentieth century. Our results show that large climatically suitable regions still remain uncolonized and that climate change will affect the geographical distribution of climatically suitable areas. Climate conditions in Europe were favorable in the twentieth century, suggesting that the recent colonization of Europe is rather due to an increase in propagule pressure via international trade than to recent environmental changes.

Characterizing the aridity indices and potential evapotranspiration using CMIP6-GCMs in two distinct regions of Ethiopia

Abstract Using an ensemble of three global climate models, the current study aims to estimate climate change and quantify the changes in the aridity and evapotranspiration of two distinct areas in Ethiopia. To adjust for bias in the climate dataset, the Hydrological Modeling Tool (CMhyd) was used. These studies were initially run using station data and employed the shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios for the short-range (2011–2040) years and medium-range (2041–2070) years. Climate-related aridity is measured using the De Martone and United Nations Environment Programme aridity indices. The study's findings for the western and eastern catchments for the reference period (1981–2010) years reveal an average annual temperature rise of 1.5 and 0.06 °C and a drop in annual precipitation of 15.73 and 3.68 mm/year, respectively. These alter the climate in the geographical areas that have historically supported drought. Evapotranspiration in the western and eastern catchments may grow by up to 24.6 and 21.6%, respectively, by the 2070s. The observation implies that the western catchment may experience more pronounced climate change and volatility than the eastern one. The consequences of this observation influence agriculture, water resource management, and the social and economic well-being of those living in drought-prone areas.