Climate Cooperation Research Articles

鸟类合作繁殖和气候之间的关系研究进展

鸟类合作繁殖和气候之间的关系研究进展

“Good” and “Bad” Control in Public Administration: The Impact of Performance Evaluation Systems on Employees’ Trust in the Employer

In the course of the New Public Management reform movement, public administrations have increasingly implemented output-oriented control schemes, including systems to evaluate employees’ performance. However, contradictory evidence exists about how such output control that fundamentally differs from traditional bureaucratic control affects performance-relevant employee attitudes and behaviors. In this article, we present evidence that performance evaluations have positive or negative consequences depending on the specific design of the system. Analyzing survey data from 184 employees and 60 supervisors from the German municipal administration by structural equation modeling, we find performance evaluations employed as Management by Objectives (MbO) have a positive impact on trust in the employer and that those designed as Systematic Performance Appraisal (SPA) affect trust negatively. Both relationships are mediated by perceived cooperative climate. These findings advocate employing performance evaluations that are participative, adaptive, learning-oriented, and transparent and thus enable fair cooperation between organizational members.

One-Month-Lead Predictability of Asian Summer Monsoon Indices Based on the Zonal Winds by the APCC Multimodel Ensemble

The seasonal predictability of Asian summer monsoon indices characterizing horizontal and vertical zonal wind shear is investigated using 1-month-lead hindcast datasets from seven coupled global circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the operational multimodel ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system of the Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) for the 1983–2010 period. The summer monsoon indices analyzed in this study represent the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM), western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM), and the newly defined northeastern Asian summer monsoon (NEASM). For the WNPSM and NEASM indices, we also analyze the prediction skill of the index components separately. The study demonstrates that the operational APCC MME system reliably predicts most of the summer monsoon indices and their components, with correlation coefficients exceeding the 99% confidence level. Analysis of the ocean sources of the prediction skill of the indices reveals that the strong relationships of most of the monsoon indices and their components with sea surface temperature (SST) are not confined to the equatorial Pacific but rather are dispersed throughout the World Ocean, with the leading role played by the north Indian Ocean SST anomalies. This conclusion is supported by the analysis of correlations between the monsoon indices and the tropical SST indices. The correlations between the SST anomalies and all the summer monsoon indices in the MME predictions are stronger than those in the observations. However, overestimation of the role of the ENSO-related SST anomalies in the seasonal model hindcasts results in some predictability deterioration of the SASM and NEASM indices.

A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) in-house model (Seamless Coupled Prediction System: SCoPS) has been newly developed for operational seasonal forecasting. SCoPS has generated ensemble retrospective forecasts for the period 1982–2013 and real-time forecasts for the period 2014–current. In this study, the seasonal prediction skill of the SCoPS hindcast ensemble was validated compared to those of the previous operation model (APEC Climate Center Community Climate System Model version 3: APCC CCSM3). This study validated the spatial and temporal prediction skills of hindcast climatology, large-scale features, and the seasonal climate variability from both systems. A special focus was the fidelity of the systems to reproduce and forecast phenomena that are closely related to the East Asian monsoon system. Overall, both CCSM3 and SCoPS exhibit realistic representations of the basic climate, although systematic biases are found for surface temperature and precipitation. The averaged temporal anomaly correlation coefficient for sea surface temperature, 2-m temperature, and precipitation from SCoPS is higher than those from CCSM3. Notably, SCoPS well captures the northward migrated rainband related to the East Asian summer monsoon. The SCoPS simulation also shows useful skill in predicting the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. Consequently, SCoPS is more skillful than CCSM3 in predicting seasonal climate variability, including the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation. Further, it is clear that the seasonal climate forecast with SCoPS will be useful for simulating the East Asian monsoon system.

Book Reviews

In Book Reviews, we review an extensive and diverse range of books. They cover theory and applications in operations research, statistics, management science, econometrics, mathematics, computers, and information systems. In addition, we include books in other fields that emphasize technical applications. The editor will be pleased to receive an email from those willing to review a book, with an indication of specific areas of interest. If you are aware of a specific book that you would like to review, or that you think should be reviewed, please contact the editor. The following books are reviewed in this issue of Interfaces, 48(5), September–October: Global Carbon Pricing: The Path to Climate Cooperation, Peter Cramton, David J. C. Mackay, Axel Ockenfels, and Steven Stoft, eds; Business Analytics for Managers: Taking Business Intelligence Beyond Reporting, Gert H. N. Laursen and Jesper Thorlund.

Seasonal prediction of high‐resolution temperature at 2‐m height over Mongolia during boreal winter using both coupled general circulation model and artificial neural network

The hindcast data of Pusan National University coupled general circulation model (PNU CGCM), a participant model of the Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) Multi‐Model Ensemble Climate Prediction System, and August–October sea‐surface temperature (SST) in the northern Barents–Kara Sea (BKI) and the sea‐ice extent (SIE) in the Chukchi Sea (East Siberian Sea index [ESI]) are used for predicting 20 × 20‐km‐resolution anomalous surface air temperature at 2‐m height (aT2m) over Mongolia for boreal winter. For this purpose, area‐averaged surface air temperature (TI) and sea‐level pressure (SLP) over Mongolia are defined. Then four large‐scale indices, TImdl and SHImdl obtained from PNU CGCM, and TIMLR and SHIMLR obtained from multiple linear regressions on BKI and ESI, are incorporated using the artificial neural network (ANN) method for the prediction and statistical downscaling to obtain the monthly and seasonal 20 × 20‐km‐resolution aT2m over Mongolia in winter. An additional statistical method, which uses BKI and ESI as predictors of TI and SHI together with dynamic prediction by the CGCM, is used because of the relatively low skill of seasonal predictions by most of the state‐of‐the‐art models and the multi‐model ensemble systems over high‐latitude landlocked Eurasian regions such as Mongolia. The results show that the predictabilities of monthly and seasonal 20 × 20‐km‐resolution aT2m over Mongolia in winter are improved by applying ANN to both statistical and dynamical predictions compared to utilizing only dynamic prediction. The predictability gained by the proposed method is also demonstrated by the probabilistic forecast implying that the method forecasts aT2m over Mongolia in winter reasonably well.

Global Carbon Pricing: The Path to Climate Cooperation

<i>Global Carbon Pricing: The Path to Climate Cooperation</i>

Assessment of causal relationships between motivational climates, goal orientations and “Zest for Living” in junior high school physical education classes

Causal relationships among perceived motivational climates in physical education classes, goal orientations, and “Zest for Living” were investigated reciprocally in junior high school students. This longitudinal study involved 1045 junior high school students (mean age = 13.9±0.8 years) who completed questionnaires on 5 occasions at 2-month intervals throughout the academic year. The measures used included a questionnaire on motivational climates in physical education (mastery climate, cooperative climate, and performance climate), a scale assessing goal orientations (student task orientation and student ego orientation), and a scale assessing Zest for Living. The validity of the 5-wave cross-lagged effect model was verified using structural equation modeling. The results of the study suggested the following processes: (1) The mastery climate and cooperative climate had positive causal effects on Zest for Living. (2) The mastery climate and cooperative climate had positive causal effects on Zest for Living through mediation of task orientation, and exhibited a positive cycle. (3) The performance climate had positive causal effects on ego orientation, but negative causal effects on task orientation. In conclusion, to enhance Zest for Living in junior high school students, it is important for teachers to cultivate a mastery climate and cooperation climate in physical education classes. In addition, the performance climate in physical education classes has an indirect negative impact on Zest for Living.

Climatic Changes and Their Relation to Weather Types in a Transboundary Mountainous Region in Central Europe

A first-time common cross-border assessment of observed climatic changes in the Saxon–Bohemian region was the aim of the German–Czech climate cooperation INTERKLIM. This paper focuses on the observed changes of temperature and precipitation averages and extremes within the period 1961–2010, investigating how variations of a range of climate indices were regionally shaped by changes in frequency and character of weather types. This investigation serves to enhance our understanding of the regional climate characteristics to develop transboundary adaptation strategies and focuses on the classification of the “Grosswetterlagen” using the parameters of air temperature and precipitation. Climate data were quality controlled and homogenized by a wide range of methods using the ProClimDB software with a subsequent comprehensive regional visualization based on Geographical Information Systems. Trends for the temperature averages showed increasing trend values mainly from January to August, especially for high temperature extremes. Precipitation trends displayed regionally varying signals, but a strong spatially uniform decrease from April to June (early growing season) and a distinctive increase from July to September (late growing season). Climatic changes were supported by frequency changes of weather types, e.g., the drying from April to June was related to a decrease/increase in patterns causing rather wet/dry conditions, while from July to September opposite trends were observed. Our results represent regional climatic changes in a complex topography and their dependency on variations in atmospheric circulation peculiarities.

Strengthening Climate Change Cooperation between China and India: Significance and Cooperation Areas

In international climate negotiations, China and India are both members of the BASIC countries and Like Minded Group of Developing Countries (LMDC). In recent years, due to the different development levels, the two countries have differed in issues such as willingness to reduce emissions, peak emissions and funding. China tends to engage in international climate governance with a more proactive approach, while India, constrained by its development level, has continued to emphasize the traditional stance of a developing country. Although differences between the two sides on some issues have not yet led to the collapse of China–India climate cooperation, more efforts need to be made to further analyze and define the pursuits of both sides, future trends in their cooperation and priority areas for collaboration. In the authors’ opinion, the two countries still have common ground in seeking further socio-economic development and getting emission allowances, which will serve as the foundation for future climate cooperation. Strengthening the cooperation between China and India on climate change will not only help unite developing countries to fight for and safeguard their rights to equitable development, but also enhance the cooperative actions and bilateral ties between the two countries. Moreover, the cooperation may as well work as a potential platform where China can disseminate the idea of ecological civilization and promote the shift towards a green and low-carbon development model. In the post-Paris Agreement era, China should maintain and advance its cooperation with India on climate change, strengthen existing cooperation mechanisms and launch pragmatic cooperation programs in regard to equitable development, the utilization of renewable resources and research on ecological civilization.

Non-cooperative and cooperative climate policies with anticipated breakthrough technology

Global warming can be curbed by pricing carbon emissions and thus substituting fossil fuel with renewable energy consumption. Breakthrough technologies (e.g., fusion energy) can reduce the cost of such policies. However, the chance of such a technology coming to market depends on investment. We model breakthroughs as an irreversible tipping point in a multi-country world, with different degrees of international cooperation. We show that international spill-over effects of R&D in carbon-free technologies lead to double free-riding, strategic over-pollution and underinvestment in green R&D, thus making climate change mitigation more difficult. We also show how the demand structure determines whether carbon pricing and R&D policies are substitutes or complements.

Does the Conceptualization and Measurement of Democracy Quality Matter in Comparative Climate Policy Research?

Previous &lt;em&gt;empirical&lt;/em&gt; research on democracy and global warming has mainly questioned whether democracy contributes to climate protection. However, there is no consensus in the &lt;em&gt;theoretical&lt;/em&gt; literature on what institutional traits of democracy are crucial for climate policy. Thus, results based on indices that summarize multiple democracy quality dimensions could be misleading, as their effects could balance each other out or hide the relative importance of each institutional trait. This article examines whether the analysis of the effects of democracy quality dimensions, measured by separate indicators, contributes to a better understanding of cross-national variance in climate policy compared to the focus on the regime type difference, measured by democracy quality measures. Compared to earlier research, the results indicate that the positive effect of democracy on commitment to climate cooperation depends on the realization of political rights. We find little to support the claim that democracy quality dimensions matter for climate policy outcomes. The main implication of our findings is that it could be fruitful to use more disaggregated democracy measures for the analysis of substantive research questions.

Cyclone-track based seasonal prediction for South Pacific tropical cyclone activity using APCC multi-model ensemble prediction

This study aims to predict the seasonal TC track density over the South Pacific by combining the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) dynamical prediction system with a statistical model. The hybrid dynamical-statistical model is developed for each of the three clusters that represent major groups of TC best tracks in the South Pacific. The cross validation result from the MME hybrid model demonstrates moderate but statistically significant skills to predict TC numbers across all TC clusters, with correlation coefficients of 0.4 to 0.6 between the hindcasts and observations for 1982/1983 to 2008/2009. The prediction skill in the area east of about 170°E is significantly influenced by strong El Nino, whereas the skill in the southwest Pacific region mainly comes from the linear trend of TC number. The prediction skill of TC track density is particularly high in the region where there is climatological high TC track density around the area 160°E–180° and 20°S. Since this area has a mixed response with respect to ENSO, the prediction skill of TC track density is higher in non-ENSO years compared to that in ENSO years. Even though the cross-validation prediction skill is higher in the area east of about 170°E compared to other areas, this region shows less skill for track density based on the categorical verification due to huge influences by strong El Nino years. While prediction skill of the developed methodology varies across the region, it is important that the model demonstrates skill in the area where TC activity is high. Such a result has an important practical implication—improving the accuracy of seasonal forecast and providing communities at risk with advanced information which could assist with preparedness and disaster risk reduction.

India's Progress and Plan of Action in Addressing Climate Change and Its Role in Setting an Effective, Cooperative and Equitable Climate Policy Architecture

Much of climate actions and framing of state action plans to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change has been driven by international targets and obligations. The framing of national action plans was triggered by international negotiations, even though right up to the 1990s, climate action was not a domestic priority. India has maintained its stance of equity and historical emission burden at different climate negotiations. With extreme weather anomalies, climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water, energy and health are going to face several challenges. This paper positions the climate change policy of India with respect to its various national and state action plans and outlines its role in setting effective, cooperative and equitable climate policy architecture. Transition to a low-carbon economy is seen as a challenge for India, as it seeks to balance its developmental needs with concerns for climate change. The way forward poses both challenges and offers opportunities for a low-carbon led growth. In tackling the climate change scenarios, the paper outlines many opportunities that can also contribute to wider development goals. These include building climate resilient infrastructure, improving intersect oral organisation, resource planning and framing state policies and programmes that mainstream climate risks.

China-US Climate Cooperation: Creating a New Model of Major-Country Relations?

Building “a new model of major-country relations,” particularly with the United States, has become one of China’s major foreign policy objectives. Yet, outside of China, the concept is often seen as an empty slogan with no practical utility. By examining both the concept of the new model of major-country relations (NMMCR) and China’s climate cooperation with the United States, I argue that the concept and initiative of NMMCR—with its emphasis on a common fate and shared futures, viewed as a means of achieving cooperation rather than conflict to achieve common goals— reflects well the changing environment of the twenty-first century and is thus a positive new development in China’s foreign policy.

Cambio de referentes: El Instituto de Planeamiento Regional y Urbano del Litoral (IPRUL) como vector de ingreso del planning en la Argentina.

This article examines the theoretical and methodological matrix in which the Institute for Regional and Urban Planning of the Coastal Area (Instituto de Planeamiento Regional y Urbano del Litoral—IPRUL, 1962–1965), Argentina’s first regional and urban institute, was established and operated. IPRUL introduced the notion of planning as a method of decision-making aimed at achieving development and territorial balance, drawing on the climate of political and technical cooperation resulting from the Alliance for Progress (1961) in Latin America in which the institute was founded. Consequently, analysis of IPRUL serves as a lens for understanding the incorporation of new topics and focuses related to city and territory in developing countries during the mid 20th century. This article analyzes the conditions for the institutionalization of IPRUL, its main actors, and the compilation of its library and bibliographic resources. It then examines the specific case of the Plan for Paraná City, showing the implementation of a rational and comprehensive decision-making model based on scientific and technical knowledge, whose main purpose was to improve welfare standards, according to the economic tenets of the Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean (CEPAL).

Recalibrating China-U.S. Climate Cooperation Under the Trump Administration

Based on the analytical framework of securitization, this article argues that cooperation between China and the United States on climate change will not lose momentum despite President Trump’s seemingly passive stance. A securitization process on the climate issue has been ongoing in China since President Xi Jinping took office and proposed the Overall National Security Outlook (ONSO). Climate security was thus integrated into China’s political discourse as a key component of ecological and common security, leading to a period of China-U.S. cooperation during the Obama administration. Similarly, in the United States, climate policy has been cemented in security planning and assessment of various federal agencies. The U.S. security sector seems to be largely unaffected by the White House decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. A growing number of Americans treat climate change as a security threat and many U.S. states and cities, in collaboration with business leaders, have taken on a role in international climate diplomacy. Combined with existing intergovernmental collaborative projects, robust market forces and innovative local initiatives will continue to push China-U.S. climate cooperation forward. As a necessary step to sustain its ties with the United States on climate issues, the Chinese government needs to propose a renewed bilateral framework on energy and environment cooperation under the China-U.S. Comprehensive Economic Dialogue.

Non-Cooperative and Cooperative Climate Policies with Anticipated Breakthrough Technology

Global warming can be curbed by pricing carbon emissions and thus substituting fossil fuel with renewable energy consumption. Breakthrough technologies (e.g., fusion energy) can reduce the cost of such policies. However, the chance of such a technology coming to market depends on investment. We model breakthroughs as an irreversible tipping point in a multi-country world, with different degrees of international cooperation. We show that international spill-over effects of R&D in carbon-free technologies lead to double free-riding, strategic over-pollution and underinvestment in green R&D, thus making climate change mitigation more difficult. We also show how the demand structure determines whether carbon pricing and R&D policies are substitutes or complements.

United States non-cooperation and the Paris agreement

ABSTRACTIn June 2017, the Trump administration decided to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, a landmark climate agreement adopted in 2015 by 195 nations. The exit of the US has not just raised concern that the US will miss its domestic emission reduction targets, but also that other parties to the Paris Agreement might backtrack on their initial pledges regarding emission reductions or financial contributions. Here we assess the magnitude of the threat that US non-cooperation poses to the Paris Agreement from an international relations perspective. We argue that US non-cooperation does not fundamentally alter US emissions, which are unlikely to rise even in the absence of new federal climate policies. Nor does it undermine nationally determined contributions under pledge and review, as the Paris Agreement has introduced a new logic of domestically driven climate policies and the cost of low-carbon technologies keeps falling. However, US non-participation in raising climate finance could raise high barriers to global climate cooperation in the future. Political strategies to mitigate these threats include direct engagement by climate leaders such as the European Union with key emerging economies, notably China and India, and domestic climate policies that furnish benefits to traditional opponents of ambitious climate policy.Key policy insightsUS non-cooperation need not be a major threat to pledge and review under the Paris Agreement.US non-cooperation is a serious threat to climate finance.Deeper engagement with emerging economies offers new opportunities for global climate policy.

United States Non-Cooperation and the Paris Agreement

In June 2017, the Trump administration decided to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, a landmark climate agreement adopted in 2015 by 195 nations. The exit of the U.S. has not just raised concern that the U.S. will miss its domestic emission reduction targets, but also that other parties to the Paris Agreement might backtrack on their initial pledges regarding emission reductions or financial contributions. Here we assess the magnitude of the threat that U.S. non-cooperation poses to the Paris Agreement from an international relations perspective. We argue that U.S. non-cooperation does not fundamentally alter U.S. emissions, which will likely continue to decline even in the absence of new federal climate policies. Nor does it undermine nationally determined contributions under pledge and review, as the Paris Agreement has introduced a new logic of domestically-driven climate policies and the cost of low-carbon technologies keeps falling. However, U.S. non-participation in raising climate finance could raise high barriers to global climate cooperation in the future. Political strategies to mitigate these threats include direct engagement by climate leaders such as the European Union with key emerging economies, notably China and India, and domestic climate policies that furnish benefits to traditional opponents of ambitious climate policy.