Climate Change Research Articles

Of goats and heat, the differential impact of summer temperature on habitat selection and activity patterns in mountain goats of different ecotypes.

Climate change disproportionately affects northern and alpine environments, with faster rates of warming than the global average. Because alpine and northern species are particularly well adapted to cool temperatures, most species must modify their behavior when temperatures exceed a critical threshold. Evaluating how temperature increases affect species inhabiting northern and alpine environments is therefore essential to understand the effects of projected climate change on these ecosystems. We analyzed the influence of temperature on the activity patterns and habitat selection of four populations of a cold-adapted, mountain specialist, the mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus). We collected GPS location and activity sensor data during 2010-2019 from 223 mountain goats from two distinct ecotypes: coastal and continental. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that mountain goats of both ecotypes decreased selection for alpine meadows when temperatures increased. Reduced selection for open, forage rich habitat was associated with increased selection for habitat dominated by snow/ice patches in coastal areas, and by forests in continental sites. Mountain goats in continental environments selected higher elevation habitats only when temperature increased, whereas goats in coastal environments selected higher elevation habitat at all temperatures. Mountain goats of both ecotypes reduced the proportion of time spent active when temperatures increased during the middle of the day. Our study reveals that mountain goats use diverse tactics to mitigate thermal stress, and that these tactics vary between ecotypes, highlighting the need for considering adaptation to specific environments within a species when assessing climate change impacts on populations.

Mapping and Analyzing Ecosystem Services Hotspots and Coldspots for Sustainable Spatial Planning in the Greater Asmara Area, Eritrea.

Rapid urbanization in African metropolises like the Greater Asmara Area, Eritrea, poses numerous environmental challenges, including soil sealing, loss of vegetation cover, threats to protected natural areas, and climate change, among others. Mapping and assessing ecosystem services, particularly analyzing their spatial and temporal distribution is crucial for sustainable spatial planning. This study aims at mapping and analyzing ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots dynamics in the Greater Asmara Area to identify recent trends and opportunities for enhancing ecosystem services supply. Utilizing remote sensing images, we produced land cover maps for 2009 and 2020 and mapped six ecosystem services through a lookup table approach. The study includes provisioning, regulating and maintenance, and cultural ecosystem services. We analyzed their spatio-temporal variations, identifying ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots and their changes over time. Results show that overall ecosystem services potential in the Greater Asmara Area remains low but stable, with some improvements. By 2020, areas with no ecosystem services potential decreased in southern regions like Gala Nefhi and Berik, and new hotspots and coldspots emerged in central Gala Nefhi. This pilot study demonstrates the feasibility and key challenges of the ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots approach for sustainable spatial planning in rapidly urbanizing African metropolitan regions. Despite limitations, the study offers valuable insights into ecosystem services potentials, and related hotspots and coldspots dynamics, raising awareness and paving the way for further research and application.

Climate change alters the future of natural floristic regions of deep evolutionary origins

Biogeographic regions reflect the organization of biotas over long evolutionary timescales but face alterations from recent anthropogenic climate change. Here, we model species distributions for 189,269 vascular plant species of the world under present and future climates and use this data to generate biogeographic regions based on phylogenetic dissimilarity. Our analysis reveals declines in phylogenetic beta diversity for years 2040 to 2100, leading to a future homogenization of biogeographic regions. While some biogeographic boundaries will persist, climate change will alter boundaries separating biogeographic realms. Such boundary alterations will be determined by altitude variation, heterogeneity of temperature seasonality, and past climate velocity. Our findings suggest that human activities may now surpass the geological forces that shaped floristic regions over millions of years, calling for the mitigation of climate impacts to meet international biodiversity targets.

Small millets: A multifunctional crop for achieving sustainable food security under climate change

Small millets: A multifunctional crop for achieving sustainable food security under climate change

A novel proxy for energy flux in multi-era wildfire reconstruction

Escalations in wildfire activity are of significant global concern, particularly within vulnerable wetland ecosystems integral to natural carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation. Our understanding and management of future wildfire activity may be better contextualised through the study of historic and ancient fire records, independent of human influence. Methods of study include ‘geothermometry’ - approximating ancient fire intensity from temperature-dependent changes in the chemistry of fossil charcoal. Though well established in their relation to experimental charcoalification, these methods still fail to quantify the true intensity of ancient fires, as a measure of energy release. As a result, their applicability, and contributions to the characterisation of modern fire activity, remain uncertain. Here, we present a novel measure of wildfire energy release, as a proxy for true intensity, through the co-application of cone calorimetry and Raman spectroscopy of charcoal. By applying a range of wildfire heat fluxes to variable peatland fuel mixes, this research demonstrates the complexity in correlating fire behaviour and charcoal microstructure. Further statistical analyses suggest a correlation between spectroscopic results, measures of CO and CO2 release, and fire severity. This offers a principal measure of ancient wildfire intensity, consistent with modern practices in wildfire modelling, monitoring, and management.

Estimating the Greenhouse Gas Emission Potential Due to Construction Work on the 225 kV Segou - Bamako High Voltage BI-Ternal Electric Line in Mali in The Context of Climate Change

Estimating the Greenhouse Gas Emission Potential Due to Construction Work on the 225 kV Segou - Bamako High Voltage BI-Ternal Electric Line in Mali in The Context of Climate Change

Unveiling mid-century conservation priorities: Co-occurrence of biodiversity, climate change exposure, and carbon storage in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin, China

The global challenges of biodiversity loss and climate change necessitate the implementation of integrated conservation strategies. A forward-looking framework is necessary to reconcile climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts with biodiversity goals, supporting effective long-term planning and management of protected areas (PAs) network. This study develops a comprehensive approach to identify priority areas for biodiversity conservation until 2050, integrating assessments of species distributions, climate change exposure and carbon storage under distinct shared socioeconomic pathways. The Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB) in China serves as a case study. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling (ESDM) method, we predicted the distributions of 435 threatened terrestrial vertebrate species and plants. We then mapped their richness in the MLYRB. Distance-based climate velocity analysis was performed to identify climate change coldspots and hotspots. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and InVEST model were coupled to simulate carbon storage changes. Systematic conservation planning tool, Zonation, was used to prioritize species conservation hotspots. By examining the co-occurrence of these hotspots with climate change coldspots/hotspots and areas of high carbon storage, conservation priorities for the MLYRB were revealed. Our findings indicate that 18.27–24.94% of the MLYRB risks over 20% species richness declines by 2050 under various scenarios, while increases over 10% are projected for only 0.81–1.75% of the area. Co-occurrence analysis highlights significant associations, such as a 32.26% overlap between species conservation hotspots and climate change hotspots in SSP1-2.6. Particularly noteworthy is the substantial co-occurrence (57.93–59.50% across scenarios) between areas maximizing species conservation and carbon storage. The identified conservation priority areas, covering 41.95% of the MLYRB (441554km2), hold potential for long-term species conservation, climate resilience, and nature-based climate solutions by 2050. However, only 6.08% of these priorities currently benefit from protection. These results offer valuable guidance for region-specific landscape management and conservation policy aligned with international goals. The presented methodology provides a broader application, serving as a valuable resource for prioritizing conservation efforts in other regions integrating biodiversity, climate change adaptation, and mitigation goals.

An improved framework for quantifying the contribution of climatic and anthropogenic factors to vegetation dynamics - A case study of China

Accurately quantifying the impact of climatic and anthropogenic factors on vegetation change is critical for developing and evaluating ecological management strategies. However, most presented studies typically ignore the climate temporal effects and assume that all pixels are affected by both climate change (CC) and human activities (HA), which often introduce uncertainties. In this study, Leaf area index (LAI), temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and land cover data from 1982 to 2020 were used to detect and attribute vegetation dynamics in China. We used partial correlation analysis, generalize linear model, trend analysis, and improved RESTREND to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of vegetation LAI from 1982 to 2020 and to quantify the effects of CC and HA on vegetation dynamics since the implementation of the Grain for Green Project (GGP). The results indicate that significant vegetation greening appeared in most areas (66.2%) between 2000 and 2020. Both CC and HA have positive effects on vegetation greening. In arid and semi-arid regions, precipitation was the primary driver of vegetation change, while in high-latitude areas of southern and southwestern China, temperature was the primary determinant. After considering the temporal effects, the explanatory power of climate variables for vegetation dynamics increased by 4.0% compared to ignoring the temporal effects, accounting for 72.81%. After dividing the pixels into those affected by CC and those affected by both CC and HA, the contribution of HA was decreased from 31.19% to 25.96%. Although the contribution of HA is lower than that of CC, ecological engineering has effectively promoted vegetation greening. These research findings provide scientific data and theoretical basis for ecological environment protection and natural resource management.

Non-optimal temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity burden by cause, age and sex under climate and population change scenarios: a nationwide modelling study in Japan

Future temperature effects on mortality and morbidity may differ. However, studies comparing projected future temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity in the same setting are limited. Moreover, these studies did not consider future population change, human adaptation, and the variations in subpopulation susceptibility. Thus, we simultaneously projected the temperature-related mortality and morbidity by cause, age, and sex under population change, and human adaptation scenarios in Japan, a super-ageing society. We used daily mean temperatures, mortality, and emergency ambulance dispatch (a sensitive indicator for morbidity) in 47 prefectures of Japan from 2015 to 2019 as the reference for future projections. Future mortality and morbidity were generated at prefecture level using four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios considering population changes. We calculated future temperature-related mortality and morbidity by combining baseline values with future temperatures and existing temperature risk functions by cause (all-cause, circulatory, respiratory), age (<65 years, ≥65 years), and sex under various climate change and SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Full human adaptation was simulated based on empirical evidence using a fixed percentile of minimum mortality or morbidity temperature (MMT), while no adaptation was simulated with a fixed absolute MMT. A future temporal decline in mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures was observed, driven by greater cold-related deaths than heat-related deaths. In contrast, temperature-related morbidity increased over time, which was primarily driven by heat. In the 2050s and 2090s, under a moderate scenario, there are 83.69 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI] 38.32-124.97) and 77.31 (95% eCI 36.84-114.47) all-cause deaths per 100,000 population, while there are 345.07 (95% eCI 258.31-438.66) and 379.62 (95% eCI 271.45-509.05) all-cause morbidity associated with non-optimal temperatures. These trends were largely consistent across causes, age, and sex groups. Future heat-attributable health burden is projected to increase substantially, with spatiotemporal variations and is particularly pronounced among individuals ≥65y and males. Full human adaptation could yield a decreasing temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity in line with a decreasing population. Our findings could support the development of targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies to address future heat-related impacts effectively. This includes improved healthcare allocations for ambulance dispatch and hospital preventive measures during heat periods, particularly custom-tailored to address specific health outcomes and vulnerable subpopulations. Japan Science and Technology Agency and Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency and Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia

Abstract Extratropical storms, particularly explosive storms or “weather bombs” with exceptionally high deepening rates, present substantial risks and are susceptible to climate change. Individual storms may exhibit a complex and hardly detectable response to human-driven climate change because of the atmosphere’s chaotic nature and variability at the regional level. It is thus essential to understand changes in specific storms for building local resilience and advancing our overall comprehension of storm trends. To address this challenge, this study compares analogs—storms with a similar backward track until making landfall—in two climates of three explosive storms impacting different European locations: Alex (October 2020), Eunice (January 2022), and Xynthia (February 2010). We use a large ensemble dataset of 105 members from the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). These analogs are identified in two periods: the present-day climate (1991–2001) and a future climate scenario characterized by high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), 2091–2101]. We evaluate future changes in the frequency of occurrence of the storms and intensity, as well as in meteorological hazards and the underlying dynamics. For all storms, our analysis reveals an increase in precipitation and wind severity over land associated with the explosive analogs in the future climate. These findings underscore the potential consequences of explosive storms modified by climate change and their subsequent hazards in various regions of Europe, offering evidence that can be used to prepare and enhance adaptation processes. Significance Statement This study investigates the impact of climate change on explosive storms, or weather bombs, and their potential consequences for European regions. We project future scenarios of three specific storms, Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia, using a state-of-the-art climate model. Our findings reveal an increase in precipitation and wind over land associated with these storms, emphasizing the heightened risks associated with climate change. The significance lies in understanding the local implications of explosive storms, aiding in the development of resilient strategies and adaptation measures.

Iranian farmers' response to the drought crisis: How can the consequences of drought be reduced?

Climate change (CC) is an undeniable global phenomenon, impacting various regions, including Iran. Key components of CC, including the increase in greenhouse gases, rising temperatures, and fluctuations in precipitation patterns, are expected to significantly reduce agricultural crop yields in the near future. In response, identifying effective adaptation strategies is critical for mitigating these adverse effects. This study investigates the role of environmental values, risk perception, and psychological distance in shaping Iranian farmers’ adaptation strategies to CC. A sample of 390 farmers from Shushtar County in southwestern Iran was selected through a multi-stage stratified sampling method. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), the analysis revealed complex interrelationships between environmental values (biospheric, altruistic, and egoistic), beliefs, risk perception, psychological distance, and farmers' adaptation responses to CC. Furthermore, the results indicated that the study variables explain 67.6% of the variance in farmers' adaptive behaviors, with belief in CC emerging as the most influential factor. These findings not only enrich the current body of literature but also provide actionable insights for policymakers to foster adaptive strategies among farmers.

Contribution of ultra-processed food and animal-plant protein intake ratio to the environmental impact of Belgian diets

There is growing concern about the various impacts of food consumption, both on human and planetary health. Given the context-specific nature of consumption patterns, evaluating their national-level impacts is crucial for proactive policy development. This research aims to evaluate the environmental impact of current Belgian diets, with particular attention to the contribution of food groups, ultra-processed foods (UPF), and the animal-to-plant protein ratio. The methodology consists of three key stages. Firstly, the Belgian diet was summarised, based on data from the Belgian National Food Consumption Survey 2014/2015. Secondly, the origin of the most frequently consumed foods was traced using trade databases. Finally, a cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment was conducted to determine the impact of Belgian diets on climate change, water use, land use, and fossil resource scarcity. In this third step, an iterative procedure for selecting the food items to be included in the study was performed. The iterative approach resulted in the inclusion of 227 food items in the analysis. The results indicate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 4.4 [4.27–4.54] kg CO2-equivalent per person per day. Red meat (35 %), beverages (16 %), dairy products (16 %) and snacks (10 %) are identified as primary contributors to climate change. Similar results were observed for land use impacts. Water use and fossil resource scarcity exhibited different trends, with beverages being the most impactful food group. Moreover, UPF account for 50 % of the total climate change and land use impacts, with a linear relationship observed between increased UPF consumption and GHG emissions and land use. A similar linear trend is observed between the ratio of animal-to-plant protein intake and both climate change and land use impact categories. A shift from the current protein ratio to a ratio of 40/60, as suggested in the Flemish Green Deal Protein Shift has been shown to result in a reduction in GHG emissions of the diet by 31 %. This study emphasises the need to target the consumption of high-impact foods such as UPF and animal-based products. Future research will investigate the relationship between environmental and health impacts.

Future Changes in the Vertical Structure of Severe Convective Storm Environments over the U.S. Central Great Plains

Abstract The effect of warming on severe convective storm potential is commonly explained in terms of changes in vertically integrated (“bulk”) environmental parameters, such as CAPE and 0–6-km shear. However, such events are known to depend on the details of the vertical structure of the thermodynamic and kinematic environment that can change independently of these bulk parameters. This work examines how warming may affect the complete vertical structure of these environments for fixed ranges of values of high CAPE and bulk shear, using data over the central Great Plains from two high-performing climate models (CNRM and MPI). To first order, projected changes in the vertical sounding structure are consistent between the two models: the environment warms approximately uniformly with height at constant relative humidity, and the shear profile remains relatively constant. The boundary layer becomes slightly drier (−2% to 6% relative humidity) while the free troposphere becomes slightly moister (+1% to 3%), with a slight increase in moist static energy deficit aloft with stronger magnitude in CNRM. CNRM indicates enhanced low-level shear and storm-relative helicity associated with stronger hodograph curvature in the lowest 2 km, whereas MPI shows near-zero change. Both models strongly underestimate shear below 1 km compared to ERA5, indicating large uncertainty in projecting subtle changes in the low-level flow structure in climate models. The evaluation of the net effect of these modest thermodynamic and kinematic changes on severe convective storm outcomes cannot be ascertained here but could be explored in simulation experiments. Significance Statement Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes cause substantial damage and loss of life each year, which raise concerns about how they may change as the world warms. We typically use a small number of common atmospheric parameters to understand how these localized events may change with climate change. However, climate change may alter the weather patterns that produce these events in ways not captured by these parameters. This work examines how climate change may alter the complete vertical structure of temperature, moisture, and wind and discusses the potential implications of these changes for future severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Agricultural innovation for climate change: limited but positive impacts of commercialized drought-tolerant corn

Abstract The extent to which new technologies can countervail the risks posed by climate change is a critical element for designing adaptation strategies. This study uses new experimental data spanning 17 US states from 2008 to 2023 to examine the potential impact of recently commercialized drought tolerant (DT) traits on both yield and yield resilience in US corn production. We find that there is no yield advantage for DT hybrids under average weather conditions, but they improve yield resilience, particularly with respect to precipitation. These effects are spatially heterogeneous, such that DT has a positive yield impact in the droughty, western US, but a small, or even negative, impact in the central and eastern US. In addition, the presence of DT reduces yield variance and kurtosis, and increases skewness, all of which imply a reduction in yield risk. Using the statistical model estimates, we project the impact of DT on corn yields under future climate conditions obtained from 20 general circulation models with two representative concentration pathways. The projected ensemble means of yield gains are 6.34 bu/acre and 5.39 bu/acre under moderate and extreme warming scenarios, respectively, by the mid-twenty-first century. These gains compensate for 23% and 13.5% of total yield loss due to climate change. Our results indicate that current commercial DT hybrids reduce yield risk, improve resilience with respect to precipitation, and have the potential to offer moderate benefits under climate change warming scenarios.

Strengthening capacities in Latin America by designing teacher professional development programmes for climate change education

PurposeThis study aims to describe the design process of two teacher professional development programmes on Climate Change Education in Chile and Mexico, their initial outcomes on teacher practices and feedback on course activities, content and format, and their expectations of future topics for deepening their understanding.Design/methodology/approachA systematization of the design and implementation process of both programmes was conducted. Subsequently, an online survey comprising 21 questions was administered to 115 teachers from both countries, representing 5% of the graduates from each programme. The survey evaluated their experiences, the impact on their teaching practices and the effects on their personal and professional lives. This non-experimental design relied on teachers' self-reported perceptions after completing the course.FindingsTeachers rated their experience highly, particularly regarding content quality and relevance to their local environment. Most (97.4%) applied their learning in their classrooms, with 78.3% noting it helped raise student awareness of climate change and facilitate collaborative projects. Additionally, 92.2% reported personal sensitization to climate issues and 87% changed personal habits. The course influenced 91.3% to take daily actions to reduce CO2 emissions. Some reflections are made on the design and implementation of the programmes, considering the survey results and the available literature.Research limitations/implicationsThe study relied on self-reported data from teachers after they had completed the courses. This approach was chosen because it allowed for a direct assessment of teachers' understanding and experiences. However, it is important to acknowledge the limitations inherent in self-reported data, such as the potential for response bias.Practical implicationsEducators, scientists and healthcare professionals can explore innovative pedagogical approaches to make CCE engaging and relevant, ensuring that all students not only comprehend the content but also feel empowered to contribute to environmental sustainability and learn to regulate their eco-anxiety. Teachers would have the opportunity to attend professional development courses based on research, reflect on their personal and technical habits, transform them, be role models for their students and build professional learning communities. Schools are transformative with a high quality of climate change education.Social implicationsClimate change demands urgent transformations in our consumption, energy generation and the construction of resilient cities. Education is pivotal in empowering environmentally conscious citizens. It fosters environmental awareness, develops skills to tackle climate challenges, promotes active citizenship, advocates for sustainable lifestyles and encourages innovation in clean technologies. By connecting people with nature, education strengthens environmental responsibility. Additionally, it equips society to advocate for sustainable policies and take action for the environment. A comprehensive educational approach is essential to forge global consensus and effectively address climate change.Originality/valueBy systematically evaluating teacher experiences and the impact on their personal and professional lives through detailed survey data, the study provides valuable insights into effective educational strategies for climate change awareness. Additionally, it highlights practical applications and behavioural changes among educators, contributing to the broader discourse on environmental education.

Vegetation greening mitigates the positive impacts of climate change on water availability in Northwest China

Climate change alters water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, i.e., water yield, WY), especially in arid regions like Northwest China (NWC) where water resources are limited. Despite large-scale implementation of ecological restoration projects has contributed to greener vegetation, this may exacerbate dryland water stress, which in turn interferes with climate change impacts on WY. To better understand this issue we used the random forest model to differentiate the effects of climate change and human activities on WY. We also employed the structural equation model to explore how vegetation greening influenced climate-induced WY trends. The results showed that the multi-year average WY in NWC was 2162.21 t and demonstrated a rising trend from 1982 to 2018, primarily driven by climate change. In contrast, anthropogenic activities had minimal effects on WY but were effective in amplifying the warming and wetting effects of climate (6.64 %-7.98 %) and counteracting unfavorable climate stress effects. Vegetation greening exacerbated soil water depletion, leading to increased evapotranspiration and mitigating the positive effects of climate change on WY. Our results are crucial for an effective comprehension of the role of vegetation in regulating terrestrial water fluxes in arid regions, providing a theoretical basis for ecological restoration.

Climate change, climate disasters and oncology care: a descriptive global survey of oncology healthcare professionals.

Climate disasters and climate change have implications for healthcare globally. As the number and intensity of climate disasters increase, it is important to understand the effects on healthcare. We conducted a global survey of oncology healthcare providers to identify awareness, experiences, and educational needs related to climate change. An existing climate and health survey was adapted to oncology. This IRB- approved, 30-item survey measured demographics, climate disaster awareness, effects on cancer care and educational needs. Healthcare professionals employed in oncology settings (practice, research, or academic) were eligible. The survey was disseminated via social media and professional organizations. Descriptive statistics were computed using SPSS. 154 responses from 26 countries were received from nurses (56%), physicians (19%), and other healthcare professionals (25%). Common climate change-related events impacting oncology care were extreme heat (63.8%) and heavy rains (52.2%). Respondents reported their workplace has a disaster plan for climate-related weather events (50.4%) or has taken steps to prepare for a climate-related weather event (48.5%). Respondents were aware that the planet has warmed significantly (98.7%), that healthcare contributes to greenhouse gas emissions (98.6%) and reported wanting to learn more about how climate change affects cancer care (88.3%). Preferred educational modalities include webinars (69%), e-learning (55%), journal articles (48.3%), conferences (46.3%) and podcasts (38.9%). This global survey is the first to identify the awareness, experiences, and educational needs of oncology healthcare professionals related to climate change and climate disasters. Healthcare providers are positioned to take leadership roles related to climate and health.

Water Temperature Model to Assess Impact of Riparian Vegetation on Jucar River and Spain

Water temperature is a critical factor for aquatic ecosystems, influencing both chemical and biological processes, such as fish growth and mortality; consequently, river and lake ecosystems are sensitive to climate change (CC). Currently proposed CC scenarios indicate that air temperature for the Mediterranean Jucar River will increase higher in summer, 4.7 °C (SSP5-8.5), resulting in a river water temperature increase in the hotter month; July, 2.8 °C (SSP5-8.5). This will have an impact on ecosystems, significantly reducing, fragmenting, or even eliminating natural cold-water species habitats, such as common trout. This study consists of developing a simulated model that relates the temperature of the river with the shadow generated by the riverside vegetation. The model input data are air temperature, solar radiation, and river depth. The model proposed only has one parameter, the shadow river percentage. The model was calibrated in a representative stretch of the Mediterranean river, obtaining a 0.93 Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) that indicates a very good model fit, a 0.90 Kling–Gupta efficiency index (KGE), and a relative bias of 0.04. The model was also validated on two other stretches of the same river. The results show that each 10% increase in the number of shadows can reduce the river water temperature by 1.2 °C and, in the stretch applied, increasing shadows from the current status of 62% to 76–87% can compensate for the air temperature increase by CC. Generating shaded areas in river restorations will be one of the main measures to compensate for the rise in water temperature due to climate change.

Attribution of summer 2022 extreme wildfire season in Southwest France to anthropogenic climate change

Summer 2022 was exceptionally hot and dry in Europe and especially in Southwest France, where the most important wildfires since 1949 had serious environmental and socio-economic impacts. Here we conduct an impact-oriented climate change attribution study by first investigating which climate indices are the most correlated with the burnt area between 2003 and 2022. We find that an index combining soil moisture integrated over 6 months and temperature and vapour pressure deficit integrated over 3 months is correlated with large burnt areas. Using the index developed, we estimate that anthropogenic climate change made climate conditions propitious for wildfire development, such as the ones of July 2022, two times more likely, with a return period of 13 years in the current climate. Our study raises the question of the sustainability of the Landes Forest and stresses the urgent need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.

Life Cycle Assessment of an Avocado: Grown in South Africa-Enjoyed in Europe.

Food production is known to have significant environmental impacts, with the main contributors residing in the farming and transportation life cycle phases. Of the various food products transported around the world, avocados have increasingly gained attention as a high-commodity superfood. Avocados require specific climatic and agricultural conditions for farming, with the most fertile land and conditions located outside Europe. Consequently, most avocados consumed in Europe are imported over vast geographical distances, with little information available to quantify the environmental impacts of this imported superfood. This paper aims to present the most detailed life cycle assessment results of an avocado cultivated, grown and harvested in the Limpopo Province of South Africa and exported to the European market for sale and consumption. A life cycle assessment was developed for the farming, harvesting, handling, packaging, ripening, transportation, and carbon sequestration potential of the avocado, and it was used to conduct a holistic life cycle assessment. Input data was obtained through an 18-month data collection campaign across the relevant stakeholders. A baseline 'business-as-usual' scenario is focused on throughout this study, and scope for optimisation is identified for each life cycle phase where applicable, accompanied by uncertainty analyses. Results show a total carbon input of 904.85 kg CO2e/tonne. Mitigating this, 521.88 kg CO2e/tonne is offset, resulting in a net carbon footprint of 382.97 kg CO2e/tonne with uncertainty ranges of -23.22 to +58.69 kg CO2e/tonne, normalised to 57.45 g CO2e/avocado grown in South Africa and sold in Europe. The environmental impacts of the avocado industry under consideration are largely mitigated by the "nature first" philosophy of the farming and logistics enterprises, which have made significant investments in reducing emissions. Sensitivity analyses indicate that implementing large-scale renewable energy, using alternative packaging instead of cardboard, and selling avocados unripened could further enable the farming enterprise to achieve Net Zero objectives. These measures could reduce baseline emissions from 382.97 kg CO2e/tonne to a theoretical -68.54 kg CO2e/tonne, representing a 117.9% decrease. Although this study does not quantify climate change impacts, qualitative analyses suggest that climate change will have a net negative effect on the avocado industry in South Africa. These regions, typically located in micro-climates, are projected to become wetter and warmer, adversely affecting crop phenology, pest control, road conditions, management complexity, farmer livelihoods, and food security. The study recommends large-scale implementation of the optimisation strategies identified to achieve Net Zero objectives and the development of proactive climate change mitigation strategies to enhance the resilience of avocado supply chains to future stressors. These insights are crucial for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and consumers aiming to promote sustainability in the avocado market.