Climate Change Vulnerability Index Research Articles

Assessment of the Climate Change Vulnerability of the Cities in Turkey

Climate-related vulnerability indices are increasingly being utilized to enhance the creation of better disaster management strategies and to better understand and anticipate the effects of disasters related to climate change. This study evaluates the climate change vulnerability of the cities in Türkiye through focusing on their exposure, susceptibilities and adaptive capacities to climate change. Data from social, economic and environmental sub-indicators were assessed and most relevant indicators were aggregated with the goal of constructing a composite Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI). The CCVI includes six forms of capital leading to socio-economic and environmental sustainability i.e. social, public utility and transport, economics, land cover, meteorology and atmospheric conditions, and natural disaster capitals, and will be assessed combining each of these forms of capitals and its three dimensions (exposure, susceptibility and adaptive capacity). Stakeholder-driven structured methodology that discovers and ranks context-relevant indicators and sets weights for aggregating indicator scores by using the Best-Worst method (BWM) and stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA) method are utilised. The indicators are aggregated through application of the BWM and SWARA weights using a linear aggregation method. From BWM and SWARA, the highest weights were obtained for meteorological conditions and land cover which are more than 0.36 and 0.22, respectively. The lowest weights were assigned to social characteristics and economy both of which were smaller than 0.10. The findings indicated that the cities on the northern, western and southern coasts as well as the cities in south-east region are the most vulnerable to climate change. The construction of CCVI can be used as part of decision-making process to minimize hazards and exposure to risk of climate change for the cities of Türkiye.

Integrating aquatic species, assemblage, and habitat climate change vulnerabilities into a watershed-scale decision support framework

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a serious threat to ecological systems, particularly freshwater systems. As a result, climate adaptation planning is more common in natural resource management. Because conservation resources are limited, decision support tools can help managers prioritize actions. We created the Species and Habitat-based Ecological Decision Support tool (wtrSHEDS) for conservation managers by integrating two distinct indices: one biologically based on aquatic watershed-scale species assemblages and the other a habitat climate change vulnerability index. To do this, we evaluated 60 crayfish and fish species in West Virginia, USA, using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index under an A1B emissions scenario. The species vulnerability assessment results indicated that most species we assessed are vulnerable to climate change. Four species of fish and two species of crayfish had extremely high vulnerability due to their dependence on a specific hydrological cycle, sensitivity to barriers, and reproductive dependence on a thermal niche. Aggregating species at the watershed scale (8-digit hydrological unit code [HUC]) using an adapted weighted sum indicated which assemblages were the most and least vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, we created a unique habitat vulnerability index using the established Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies habitat vulnerability index and an index of land cover vulnerability from the Forecast Scenario model’s land cover change projections under the A1B emissions scenario to incorporate potential synergistic impacts of land use. Land cover projections were reclassified based on the assumption that developed land would have a higher potential to interact with climate change than forested lands synergistically. We combined the two habitat indices at the watershed scale (HUC 8) and performed a Hot Spot Analysis to 1) combine the assemblage and habitat vulnerability indices and 2) identify watersheds of conservation priority. This assessment methodology illustrates a means of identifying priority conservation areas in West Virginia that utilize pre-existing data, can be modified to suit management needs, and, therefore, one that managers across regions can readily apply to their system.

Climate change-induced landslide vulnerability: Empirical evidence from Shimla district, Himachal Pradesh, India

Landslides as dynamic geological hazard have caused socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities at various scales. Thus, landslide vulnerability assessment is essential for understanding the implications for society and the environment. The present study attempts to examine landslide vulnerability in Shimla District, Himachal Pradesh, India. It constructed a composite landslide vulnerability index (CLVI) by integrating 57 indicators of 7 different domains (social vulnerability index, physical vulnerability index, economic vulnerability index, climate change and environmental vulnerability index, early warning system index, emergency response system, and adaptation strategies index) at the household level. CLVI serves as a most effective tool for the quantification of complex domains of disaster vulnerability and identification of thematic areas for disaster risk reduction. The data on various indicators were derived through a field survey of 450 households from 30 villages. The relationship between CLVI and its domains was ascertained using multiple linear regression. The CLVI analysis revealed that nine villages were highly vulnerable to landslides, while six villages experienced moderate vulnerability. Climate change and environmental vulnerability, physical fragility, and low adaptation strategies induced high to moderate vulnerability. The regression analysis showed that the degree of vulnerability was mostly influenced by the physical domain, followed by the economic and environmental domains. Effective policy, institutional setups, provision of landslide-resistant buildings, and livelihood diversification may enhance adaptive capacity among the communities. Thus, CLVI has not only helped in identifying thematic areas for reducing vulnerability but has also been instrumental in recognizing priority areas.

Exploring Climate-Induced Agricultural Risk in Saudi Arabia: Evidence from Farming Communities of Medina Region

Agriculture is vital to the Saudi Arabian economy since it provides food and other necessities to people living in rural areas, as well as those living in adjacent cities. Notwithstanding its considerable economic importance, the agricultural sector is confronted with formidable obstacles due to climate change, such as elevated temperatures, floods, extreme droughts, and decreased agricultural yields. Building a farming system capable of being climate resilient requires the comprehension of the vulnerabilities of farm households and related systems. This paper deals with the potential agricultural risks resulting from climate change in Saudi Arabia. In addition to concentrating on precipitation and temperature, the present research incorporates the three main components of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI): sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capability. The results of this research reveal a notable challenge that farmers in Saudi Arabia encounter, as they are very susceptible to the impacts of climate change. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) has a score of 0.730, signifying a substantial degree of vulnerability. The farmers in this region are very susceptible to uncertainties caused by climate change, as indicated by the significant exposure score of 0.725. This exposure comprises a wide range of concerns resulting from fluctuations in temperature, patterns of rainfall, and occurrences of severe weather, all of which have an immediate and negative effect on agriculture. Farmers in that region are more susceptible to the effects of climate change, which could jeopardize their livelihoods and agricultural operations, as shown by the susceptibility component (SVI) of 0.559. Moreover, the adaptive capacity (AVI) score of 0.567 highlights the fact that farmers have limited access to resources, skills, and experience, hindering their ability to tackle the challenges that have been caused by climate change in this region successfully. The results emphasize the immediate necessity for specific policies and assistance to enhance the resilience of agricultural communities in the area, as well as to mitigate the potential adverse effects of climate change on their livelihoods.

A Study on the Vulnerability of Fruit Crop Growers to Climate Change in Kalyana Karnataka Region

Vulnerability of fruit crop growers due to climate change can be defined as the degree to which the growers are susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change. An ex-post-facto research design was used for the study. The study was conducted in the Koppal and Bidar districts of Kalyana Karnataka during the year 2022-23, to analyse the climate change vulnerability of fruit crop growers. The total sample consisted of 80 fruit crop growers, comprising 40 mango growers and 40 guava growers from both districts, respectively. A well-structured interview schedule and the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CVI) was used for the study, which comprised three components: exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity to climate change. The overall CVI was found to be 0.124, which indicated a moderate level of vulnerability of growers to climate change. The CVI of Koppal district was 0.144, and that of Bidar district was 0.105. This indicated that the growers in Koppal district were more vulnerable than those in Bidar district to climate change factors. It can be concluded that the socio-demographic and socio-psychological attributes of the farmers might have been influenced variably.

Climate Change Awareness among Young Mass Media Users; Jalalabad, Afghanistan

‌Climate change is a grave challenge for the current century, affecting the lives of people across the globe, especially in developing countries. The study cites Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI, 2011) to claim that Afghanistan is among the countries most threatened by climate change, due to its demographic, geographic, and climatic factors (Ali, 2011). The research is a quantitative analyze of awareness about climate change among mass media users. The research used a sampling frame of 15,310 individuals. Researchers randomly picked 385 of them from different Universities and colleges in Jalalabad City, Afghanistan. Researcher also looked at a lot of books and articles from around the world and locally, to get the data researchers needed. Researchers asked them to fill out a survey questionnaire. Most respondents (36.36%) agreed that media increases users' knowledge about climate change. Moreover, a large majority (44.68%) of respondents agreed that media coverage on climate change have good impact on public. (36.36%) of respondents were neutral on "Climate change is a severe concern for Afghan youth. Most respondent’s answer they watch and follow TV to receive information about climate change. Media gives us a lot of ways to find out more about climate change and what we can do about it. We can follow TV, Radio, Internet, or Newspapers that talk about this issue and share useful tips and facts. Policy makers can use it to improve how we communicate and educate people about climate change. Policy makers can also use it to motivate people to change their habits and attitudes towards the environment.

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies of the Communities in Bagmati Province, Nepal

The vulnerability to climate change provides critical insights within academic discourse. This study examined climate change adaptation strategies in Bagmati Province, focusing on the characteristics of respondents and their access to socio-economic services, community resources such as land, water, forests, and energy sources, and the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. A quantitative approach and cross-sectional survey design were employed to collect data from 204 households in the villages of Syaphrubeshi, Dobhan, Langtang, and Mundu (Langtang Rural Municipality) and Krishnanagar, Kharikuna, Basantpur, and Inarbaruwa (Madi Municipality). The main ethnic groups in Langtang are the Tamang, Sherpa, and Gurung, while Brahmin and Tharu dominate in Madi. Agriculture, remittances, business, and tourism were identified as key income sources, with many households receiving remittances in the past year. While most households in Rasuwa have piped drinking water, residents in Chitwan primarily use tube wells. LP gas, firewood, and dung ranked as the primary cooking fuels. Challenges such as road connectivity, market access, education, health services, and agricultural support were more pronounced in Langtang than in Madi, with most households walking over 1 km for these services. Water resources are increasing in the Inner Tarai due to tube wells but decreasing in mountain regions, where forest resources are also in decline. The study's community resource index, climate change vulnerability index, and adaptation index varied according to settlement types, with findings grounded in both empirical and theoretical evidence. These results offer valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders at various levels.

Climate Change Adaptation Zones for Terrestrial Ecosystems—A Demonstration with Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands in the USA

Decision support tools are needed to ensure that appropriately timed and place-based adaptation is deployed in natural resource policy, planning, and management. Driven by accelerating climate change, analytical frameworks for adaptation are emerging to assist with these decisions. There is a natural relationship between climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation responses, where low to high relative climate change vulnerability suggests “resistance” to “transformation” strategies for adaptation. The NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) embodies a process for ecosystem assessment that integrates both climate and non-climate data and knowledge to document the relative vulnerability of a given habitat or ecosystem type. The framework addresses climate exposure and ecosystem resilience. Since most measures of exposure and resilience are mapped, they can be utilized to create map zones that suggest climate-smart adaptation. We applied the HCCVI to a cross-section of 10 pinyon pine and juniper woodland ecosystem types in western North America. We then demonstrate the application of these outputs to adaptation zonation. Climate exposure defines relative adaptation strategies, while measures of resilience suggest specific priorities for habitat restoration and maintenance. By the mid-21st century, 3% and 23% of the combined area of these types in the United States was categorized as Directed Transformation or Autonomous Transformation, respectively. In just 10% of the combined areas for these types, Passive Resistance strategies are suggested.

Population-Based Evidence of Climate Change Adaptation in an Endangered Plant Endemic to a Biodiversity Hotspot.

Climate change is expected to impact both the population structure and geographic distribution of plants. Species distribution models are widely used to assess range shifts and the vulnerability of plants to climate change. Despite the abundance of modeling studies, little is known about how existing populations respond to climate change. We investigated the demographic structure and vulnerability to climate change in Anemone moorei, a sub-shrub with a highly restricted distribution in a biodiversity hotspot. We improved the distribution knowledge through intensive field work. We conducted a census of stem length as a proxy for age for all known populations. We used ensemble forecasting to project distributions considering 10 future climate scenarios and developed a novel climate change vulnerability index for the species' distribution. We found that the mean stem length decreases and the proportion of young plants increases, while the size of fruiting plants decreases as A. moorei faces greater climate change vulnerability. We interpret these results as evidence for the onset of recent adaptation to climate change, consisting of reduced adult longevity and an earlier onset of reproduction. As a result of these changes, the proportion of juveniles in the population increases.

The livelihood vulnerability and adaptive capacity of shrimp farmers to climate change: a case study in Tra Vinh province, Vietnam

This study calculated the vulnerability and current adaptive capacity of shrimp farmers to climate change in two districts (Duyen Hai –DH and Cau Ngang- CN) of Tra Vinh province, Vietnam. The IPCC framework of vulnerability assessment was employed to analyze three factors (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity). We proposed 45 indices to calculate those dimensions based on the livelihood capitals (human, physical, natural, social and financial capital). Three methods of assessing climate change vulnerability index were applied to compare the livelihood vulnerability index of shrimp farmers in the two districts (Climate Vulnerability Index – CVI, Livelihood Effect Index-LEI, and Livelihood Vulnerability index under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –LVI-IPCC). Total of 300 households were interviewed in 10 randomly selected villages distributed equally over two districts. The results indicated that three ways of measuring livelihood vulnerability index are consistent with each other. The analysis revealed that the inland district (CN) was more vulnerable to climate change than the coastal districts (DH) due to natural capital and social capital mainly.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Areas in the Context of Green Energy Development-A Study of the Great Masurian Lakes Mesoregion.

Green energy production has become a common and recognized method of electricity generation. Giving up reliance on non-renewable energy sources is an important trend in the economies of many countries. The paper presents an analysis of the impact of indicators like increased green energy production on the level of vulnerability to climate change. The model of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (VCC) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (considering three aspects: exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity of the studied spatial unit/society) was applied. Sensitivity analysis, spatial heterogeneity, and temporal dynamics of indicators characterizing changes in electricity consumption, renewable energy production, greenhouse gas emissions, and variability of financial losses due to extreme weather events and their number were implemented. Several findings arose. First, the vulnerability to climate change (the level of the VCC index), does not decrease after the implementation of a single action, like the development of green energy production. The level of index of vulnerability to climate change (VCC1) from the reference year (2017) relative to VCC2 (2021) has changed slightly, despite the development of RES. The variation does not exceed a 1% reduction in the value of the VCC1 index. Second, the decrease in the level of the vulnerability requires global, coordinated action. The value of the VCC3 index, reflecting, including changes in green energy production (X15), electricity consumption/inhabitant (X38), and green-house gas emissions (X14), exhibited more favorably the impact of these indicators on vulnerability to climate change, compared to the VCC1 reference value. In eleven poviats, the VCC3 index decreased between 1 and 4%. In seven of these poviats, green energy production increased, resulting in an average 10% decrease in the X15 indicator, the X14 indicator representing green-house gas emissions decreased by an average of 7%, while the X38 indicator describing electricity consumption/per capita decreased by an average of 16%. Third, harmonized and inclusive action by the population holds the potential to be the clue to reducing vulnerability to climate change.

CLIMATE CHANGE RISK PERCEPTION AND VULNERABILITY OF MUNGBEAN PRODUCTION IN SOUTHERN BANGLADESH

Climate change and its variability cause different stresses that negatively affecting the pulse crop specially mungbean in the southern region of Bangladesh. The present study was conducted to examine the climate change risk perception of mungbean growers and vulnerability of mungbean in the coastal districts of Patuakhali and Barguna in Bangladesh. Using a structured questionnaire with face to face interviews, 120 samples were collected from Patuakhali and Barguna district during the period of 2022-23. The multistage sampling technique was used in selecting the sample. The collected data were analyzed using a combination of descriptive statistics i.e. sum, averages and percentages) and mathematical analyses i.e. Standardized Climate Change Risk Perception Index (SCCRPI) and Vulnerability Index. The study found that farmers in these regions grow mungbean during late Robi and kharif-ii season. In Patuakhali district, the highest SCCRPI value was for drought (77) and lowest value was for salinity (33). In contrast, the highest SCCRPI values in the Barguna district was for drought (75) and lowest value was for salinity (33), respectively. Farmers in both districts identified drought as the greatest concern, followed by insect attack, rainfall, disease infestation, water logging and salinity. The vulnerability index for mungbean in Patuakhali and Barguna district, respectively, is 0.34 and 0.35, which indicates a medium level of vulnerability and indicates that one should use improved technologies, stress tolerant variety that can minimize risk from unfavorable climatic, social, and biological conditions. Farmers responded that three times harvest was the main reason that hinder the production process along with others climatic, biological and social factors. Development of synchronized variety, availability of good quality seed, digging canals, proper use of sluice gate can increase the yield of mungbean in the study areas.

Climate change vulnerability, and health of women and children: Evidence from India using district level data.

To understand how climate change vulnerability is associated with women and children's health (WCH) at the district level in India. The district-specific climate change vulnerability index was mapped to the district level NFHS-5 data (N= 674). Fractional regression and spatial analyses were performed to examine the strength of association and the presence of geographic clustering. Bivariate analysis revealed that the levels of WCH indicators were lower in districts with a high vulnerability index than in those with a low vulnerability index. Multivariable analyses suggested that with a 1% increase in the vulnerability index, the proportion of modern contraceptive use was reduced by 0.22, four or more prenatal care visits by 0.14, postnatal care by 0.11, and full immunization by 0.12; whereas wasting and underweight proportions increased by 0.07 and 0.10, respectively. The spatial analysis found that in about 70-118 districts, mostly in eastern India, where climate vulnerability was high the WCH outcomes were also poor. There is a macro-level association between climate change vulnerability and WCH, as districts that had high levels of climate change vulnerability also performed poorly in WCH. There is a need for an integrated approach that considers geography-specific climate change threats to develop health programs.

Livelihood vulnerability of char land communities to climate change and natural hazards in Bangladesh: an application of livelihood vulnerability index

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. In general, Char land (Riverine Island) communities are frequently affected by floods, riverbank erosion, and other climatic hazards, including drought, cyclones, tornadoes, salinity intrusion, water logging, cold waves, etc., which cause many to lose their sources of livelihoods and properties and make them more vulnerable. Using survey data of 262 rural households, this study investigates the extent of livelihood vulnerability to climate change and natural hazards in the Char land communities by applying the climate change vulnerability index (CVI) (i.e., UN-IPCC vulnerability framework) and the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) to develop context-specific interventions for building climate and livelihood resilience. The two approaches to vulnerability assessment were modified to incorporate local contexts and indigenous knowledge into 41 sub-components. The result shows that LVI and CVI values are different between Char land communities. The LVI index shows that households in Char Jotindro-Narayan (0.148) are more vulnerable than those in Char Kulaghat (0.139). The CVI values for Char Jotindro-Narayan (0.633) are slightly lower than for Char Kulaghat (0.639). The major vulnerability factors were access to food and water, social networks, natural disasters, and climatic variability. The study also indicates that flood, riverbank erosion, unemployment, and access to communication, market, and basic service opportunities are the major biophysical and socioeconomic factors determining livelihood vulnerability. Context-specific sustainable policies and development initiatives are required to improve the adaptive capacity of Char land communities across Bangladesh, thereby building their climate and livelihood resilience.

Combined climate impacts and vulnerability index on coastal ecosystems in prediction of future scenarios: extended sustainable indicator tool for adaptive strategy

This study presents the coastal vulnerability due to the forecasted climate change impact on the marine environment, including the sea level rise physical trait of risk impact. A combined methodology using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which corresponds to the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, is used in this research; combined with Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to rank the relative risk for each of the marine ecosystem zones in relation to the potential hazard exacerbated by climate change and sea-level rise. This method presents vulnerability in numerical data, which cannot be calculated directly based on their physical properties. From the results, it shows that the coastal areas of the study area of Marudu Bay would experience a warmer atmosphere both under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with an increment of 1.0 °C and 1.7 °C; meanwhile, the climate projection for total exhibits of increase in total precipitation by 2.6 mm/day and 1.6. mm/day under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 at the regional measure. At the same time, the projection simulates an increase of sea level by 0.21 m and 0.27 m over the northern region of Marudu Bay under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. In addition, 43.84 ha and 57.02 ha of land estimated would be potentially inundated by the mid-century year 2050 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. By the end of the century 2100, the sea level is projected to increase locally at about 0.32 m under RCP 4.5 and 0.38 m under RCP 8.5, consequently resulting in a total of 66.84 ha and 79.78 ha of additional inundation coverage. Therefore, the result from this study can be used when making effective adaptive strategies and conservation planning despite its inherent uncertainties.

Understanding the Impact of Green Human Resource Management Practices and Dynamic Sustainable Capabilities on Corporate Sustainable Performance: Evidence From the Manufacturing Sector.

Pakistan ranks as the eighth most vulnerable country on the 2021 global climate change vulnerability index. Partially, this perilous position is attributed to unsustainable practices in the large-scale manufacturing sector since its contribution to carbon emission is among the highest in the economy. These serious environmental challenges impede the attainment of sustainable development goals that concern responsible consumption and production. In manufacturing organizations, there are an ongoing debate regarding sustainable human resource management (HRM) determinants, which can promote sustainable performance. In this regard, green human resource management (GHRM) practices and dynamic sustainable capabilities are significant components as they have a unique role in transforming corporations into sustainable organizations. However, there is a dearth of evidence regarding the impact of individual GHRM practices, such as green recruitment and selection, green pay and reward, and sustainable capabilities like monitoring and re-configuration, in improving the corporate environmental and social performance. Hence, an empirical investigation regarding the association among these macro-level components with the corporate environmental and social performance through partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is conducted. The findings inferred from 396 employees affiliated with six large-scale industries substantiate the main hypotheses of this study. It is empirically confirmed that GHRM and dynamic sustainable capabilities significantly and positively impact corporate sustainable performance. This research contributes to the literature by employing dynamic capabilities approach and a dynamic resource-based view (RBV) to explicate how corporations can benefit from the interplay of sustainable capabilities and GHRM functions. Hence, in the absence of a significant predictive model, this research is the first of its kind to isolate macro-level antecedents of sustainable HRM to find their impact on corporate sustainable performance in a developing country context. The study recommends that the management should prioritize the acquisition of monitoring capabilities and hiring environmentally conscious employees to achieve social equity and ecological conservation goals.

Community livelihood vulnerability to drought in semi-arid areas of northern Cameroon

Drought is a devastating recurring climate hazard, with enormous impacts on livelihoods and attainment of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in semi-arid areas. The current study was conducted to evaluate households’ livelihood vulnerability to droughts in an African semi-arid region. A total of 384 households from a drought-prone region in Northern Cameroon were randomly sampled and interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Livelihood vulnerability was evaluated from the collected households’ data using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Vulnerability Index (IPCC-VI) methods. The LVI results showed that food insecurity, livelihood strategy and social networking were the major drivers of livelihood vulnerability. This was because almost all of the interviewed households relied on rain-fed agriculture and there was limited early drought warning information, which limited the achievements of some SDGs such as zero hunger, water accessibility and poverty alleviation. Adoption of drought-resilient and early maturing crops together with the use of agriculture extension officers to disseminate drought warnings are advised to reduce the effects of the livelihood vulnerability drivers and ensure sustainable development. The IPCC-VI showed that drought exposure and adaptive capacity were low while drought sensitivity was high among the surveyed households. The high sensitivity was due to food and water insecurity, while low adaptive capacity was due to a lack of formal education and a high dependency rate. Heavy investment in education and reducing the number of dependents through family planning and campaigning against polygamy could enhance households’ adaptive capacity. It was concluded that households’ livelihood vulnerability in the study area was due to high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to drought. Drought reversed positive steps that had been taken to achieve various SDGs; however, heavy investment in other SDGs such as quality education and health could enhance households’ adaptive capacity and system sustainability in African semi-arid regions.

Calculation of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Nakdong Watersheds Considering Non-Point Pollution Sources

As a response to climate change, South Korea has established its third National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2021–2025) alongside the local governments’ plans. In this study, proxy variables in 22 sub-watersheds of the Nakdong River, Korea were used to investigate climate exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and non-point pollution in sub-watersheds, a climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) was established, and the vulnerability of each sub-watershed in the Nakdong River was evaluated. Climate exposure was highest in the Nakdong Estuary sub-watershed (75.5–81.7) and lowest in the Geumhogang sub-watershed (21.1–28.1). Sensitivity was highest (55.7) in the Nakdong Miryang sub-watershed and lowest (19.6) in the Habcheon dam sub-watershed. Adaptive capacity and the resulting CCVI were highest in the Geumhogang sub-watershed (96.2 and 66.2–67.9, respectively) and lowest in the Wicheon sub-watershed (2.61 and 18.5–20.4, respectively), indicating low and high vulnerabilities to climate change, respectively. The study revealed that the high CCVI sensitivity was due to adaptive capacity. These findings can help establish rational climate change response plans for regional water resource management. To assess climate change vulnerability more accurately, regional bias can be prevented by considering various human factors, including resources, budget, and facilities.

Mitigating anthropogenic barriers to facilitate distributional shifts helps reduce vulnerability of a large herbivore to climate change

AbstractClimate change is among the greatest threats to biodiversity conservation worldwide. Understanding which species are vulnerable to climate change and in what ways is essential for adaptation planning and mitigation. We used the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to conduct a range‐wide assessment of tule elk (Cervus canadensis nannodes) – a California‐endemic ungulate with low genetic diversity, occupying highly fragmented landscapes – to climate change. Using results from the CCVI, we tested the hypothesis that increasing connectivity among populations, by mitigating anthropogenic barriers to movement and dispersal, decreases vulnerability of tule elk to climate change. We compared CCVI scores given predicted conditions within current ranges with CCVI scores as if anthropogenic barriers were mitigated, with and without allowing elk to shift distributions up to 50 km to areas predicted to experience less warming, drying, or overall exposure to climate change (indicated by an interaction between warming and drying). Vulnerability of tule elk to climate change varied among populations; from most to least vulnerable rankings in the CCVI, 1 population was ranked extremely vulnerable, 1 was highly vulnerable, 12 were moderately vulnerable, and 4 were less vulnerable. Mitigating anthropogenic barriers alone did not have a significant effect on vulnerability to climate change compared to original CCVI estimates, nor did mitigation of anthropogenic barriers and shifts in distribution to areas expected to experience the least amount of warming. Mitigation of anthropogenic barriers coupled with elk shifting distributions to areas predicted to experience less drying than current ranges or less overall exposure to climate change significantly reduced climate change vulnerability. Our findings illustrate the need to prioritize increasing landscape connectivity for tule elk across California as part of climate change mitigation measures, but also may apply to non‐migratory ungulates more generally, particularly where drying and warming are predicted to increase under climate change.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Rondo Dwarf Galago in Coastal Forests, Tanzania.

Negative effects of climate change on organisms and their habitats pose significant conservation challenges especially for species already under siege from other threats like habitat loss, pollution and diseases. This study assessed the extent to which the Rondo dwarf galago (Paragalago rondoensis), an endangered primate in the coastal forests in eastern Tanzania is threatened by climate change. Past and projected temperature and precipitation records from Tanzania Meteorological Authority were overlaid with P. rondoensis distribution range to assess the species exposure to climate extremes. Traits predisposing it to climate change were also obtained from published literature and experts on the organism's biology to determine its sensitivity. The P. rondoensis vulnerability to climate change was obtained by feeding exposure and sensitivity data into Natureserve's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) software. Results indicated that most of Rondo galago's habitat and distribution range will be exposed to a temperature increase of 1 to 1.3 °C by 2050, which if combined with other threats, is likely to further endanger the species survival. Due to its diet specialization on insects, which are moisture-dependent, any extreme decrease in humidity will reduce its diet availability thereby threatening the species further. Moreover, Rondo galago's limited habitats and distribution range in the East African tropical coastal forests, raises the species threat level. Rondo galago's conservation should be enhanced through creation of corridors to facilitate its possible shifts to conducive and safer habitats in the event of extreme weather. Climate change aspects should also be integrated into the species conservation strategies.