Climate Change Program Research Articles

A Climate Coalition of the Willing

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. See, for example, Robert Keohane and David Victor, “The Regime Complex for Climate Change,” Discussion Paper 10–33, The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, January 2010, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/19880/regime_complex_for_climate_change.html. Note, however, that their definition of the regime complex excludes private and sub-state actors. 2. See, for example, J. Lawrence Broz and Daniel Maliniak, “Malapportionment, Gasoline Taxes, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,” presented at the Third Annual Conference on The Political Economy of International Organizations, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C., January 28–30, 2010, http://dss.ucsd.edu/~jlbroz/pdf_folder/wip/broz_maliniak_PEIO.pdf. 3. Antoaneta Bezlova, “China's Climate Change Plan: The Debate Goes On,” Inter Press Service News Agency, November 6, 2009, http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=49166. 4. National Development and Reform Commission, “China's National Climate Change Programme,” June 2007, http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File188.pdf. 5. For further information on Chinese climate-change policy, see the government's online informational portal, http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/en/; also see ChinaFAQs, an informational Web site sponsored by the Washington-based World Resources Institute, http://www.chinafaqs.org/. 6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “International Energy Statistics,” http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8. 7. For an overview of the negotiations of the ozone regime from the perspective of the chief U.S. negotiator, see Richard Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1998). 8. For more information, see the organization's Web site, www.c40cities.org; for a detailed study of “urban climate governance,” see Heike Schroeder and Harriet Bulkeley, “Global Cities and the Governance of Climate Change: What is the Role of Law in Cities?,” Fordham Urban Law Journal 36 (2009): p. 313, http://law2.fordham.edu/publications/articles/400flspub17715.pdf. 9. For more information, see the network's Web site, http://www.incr.com/; for an analysis, see Michael MacLeod, “Private Governance and Climate Change: Institutional Investors and Emerging Investor-Driven Governance Mechanisms,” St. Antony's International Review 5, no. 2 (February 2010): pp. 46–65. 10. For a partial list, see Mathew Hoffmann, “Climate Governance Experiments,” http://matthewhoffmann.wordpress.com/climate-governance-experiments/. 11. Nicholas Lutsey and Daniel Sperling, ‘‘America's Bottom-up Climate Change Mitigation Policy’’, Energy Policy 36, no. 2 (February 2008): pp. 673—685. 12. President Barack Obama, “Executive Order 13514—Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance,” October 8, 2009, http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2009/pdf/E9-24518.pdf. 13. The countries surveyed were Bangladesh, China, Egypt, France, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Russia, Senegal, Turkey, the United States, and Vietnam; see The World Bank, “Public attitudes toward climate change: findings from a multi-country poll,” December 3, 2009, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/Background-report.pdf. 14. U.S. Energy Information Agency, “Greenhouse Gases, Climate Change, and Energy,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html. 15. See, for example, the EPA's Household Emissions Calculator, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/ind_calculator.html; the Nature Conservancy's Carbon Footprint Calculator, http://www.nature.org/initiatives/climatechange/calculator/?gclid=CNyfr4DB4aQCFctL5QodVihNGg; or Carbon Footprint Ltd, http://www.carbonfootprint.com/. 16. The UN Global Compact's registry can be found at http://www.unglobalcompact.org/ParticipantsAndStakeholders/index.html. 17. David Vogel, Trading Up: Consumer and Environmental Regulation in a Global Economy (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1997). 18. Paul-Erik Veel, “Carbon Tariffs and the WTO: An Evaluation of Feasible Policies,” Journal of International Economic Law 12, no. 3 (2009): pp. 749–800. Additional informationNotes on contributorsThomas HaleThomas Hale is a PhD Candidate in the Department of Politics at Princeton University and a Visiting Fellow at LSE Global Governance, London School of Economics

Monitoring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

The rapid climate change programme (RAPID) has established a prototype system to continuously observe the strength and structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) at 26.5°N. Here we provide a detailed description of the RAPID-MOC monitoring array and how it has evolved during the first four deployment years, as well as an overview of the main findings so far. The RAPID-MOC monitoring array measures: (1) Gulf Stream transport through Florida Strait by cable and repeat direct velocity measurements; (2) Ekman transports by satellite scatterometer measurements; (3) Deep Western Boundary Currents by direct velocity measurements; (4) the basin wide interior baroclinic circulation from moorings measuring vertical profiles of density at the boundaries and on either side of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge; and (5) barotropic fluctuations using bottom pressure recorders. The array became operational in late March 2004 and is expected to continue until at least 2014. The first 4 years of observations (April 2004–April 2008) have provided an unprecedented insight into the MOC structure and variability. We show that the zonally integrated meridional flow tends to conserve mass, with the fluctuations of the different transport components largely compensating at periods longer than 10 days. We take this as experimental confirmation of the monitoring strategy, which was initially tested in numerical models. The MOC at 26.5°N is characterised by a large variability—even on timescales as short as weeks to months. The mean maximum MOC transport for the first 4 years of observations is 18.7 Sv with a standard deviation of 4.8 Sv. The mechanisms causing the MOC variability are not yet fully understood. Part of the observed MOC variability consists of a seasonal cycle, which can be linked to the seasonal variability of the wind stress curl close to the African coast. Close to the western boundary, fluctuations in the Gulf Stream and in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) coincide with bottom pressure variations at the western margin, thus suggesting a barotropic compensation. Ongoing and future research will put these local transport variations into a wider spatial and climatic context.

- (Practices of Seeing -- A Brief Commentary on Artistic Interventions in Urban Space)

Greek Abstract: Καθώς υποδeικνύeι ο τίτλος, το παρόν κeίμeνο πραγματeύeται τις σύγχρονeς καλλιτeχνικές πρακτικές παρέμβασης στον δημόσιο αστικό ιστό (κυρίως, υπό τη μορφή μeγάλης κλίμακας τοιχογραφιών). Το δοκίμιο αποτeλeί μέρος συλλογικού τόμου μe τίτλο: Eικαστικές Παρeμβάσeις στον Δημόσιο Χώρο - Ζωγραφική eπί των Τυφλών Όψeων Κτιρίων της Αθήνας, ο οποίος eκδόθηκe από την Ανωτάτη Σχολή Καλών Τeχνών της Αθήνας σe συνeργασία μe το eλληνικό Υπουργeίο Πeριβάλλοντος, Eνέργeιας & Κλιματικής Αλλαγής (Πρόγραμμα ΥΠEΚΑ ΑΘΗΝΑ-ΑΤΤΙΚΗ 2014).English Abstract: As indicated in the title, this essay deals with the practice of artistic interventions (mainly in the form of large-scale frescoes) in public urban space. The essay is included in a collective volume titled: Artistic interventions in urban spaces – The case of Athens, published by the Athens School of Fine Arts in collaboration with the Greek Ministry of Environment, Energy & Climate Change (Program: Athens-Attica 2014).

Barriers to climate change adaptation in the Netherlands

Review of recent literature on adaptation to climate change and general literature on policy processes shows that there are a large number of barriers that hamper the development and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. To reduce and manage the number of barriers and combine both streams of literature, we propose seven clusters of barriers to adaptation. Little is known, however, about the relative importance of these barriers to climate change adaptation policies and practices. An online survey was conducted between March 2010 and July 2010 among 264 scientists, policymakers, and private actors from different sectors and levels who are involved in climate change adaptation projects and programmes in the Netherlands. The survey aimed to gather their experiences with, and perceptions of, the barriers identified in the literature and encountered in their daily work. Both climate-related and non-climate-related barriers were included in the survey. Data were subjected to both qualitative and quantitative analysis. A survey feedback workshop was organized to discuss the results with several of the survey respondents. Results of this study revealed that respondents considered conflicting timescales as the most important cluster of barriers to adaptation. Other highly ranked barriers include conflicting interests; lack of financial resources; unclear division of tasks and responsibilities; uncertain societal costs and future benefits; and fragmentation within and between scales of governance. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrated that scales matter in understanding the barriers to adaptation: actors from lowlevels of governance seem to consider the barriers as more severe than actors from high levels of governance.

A Microstructure Analysis of the Carbon Finance Market

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is the key policy instrument of the European Commission's Climate Change Program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012. The key asset traded under the scheme is the European Union allowance (EUA). This article examines ultra high frequency data to assess the extent of the development in the futures market of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Our results indicate significant developments consistent with sequential information arrival. They also indicate a negative contemporaneous relationship between volume and volatility for all contracts. The implication is that liquidity traders dominate any role played by informed traders. Incorporating the duration between trades in our analysis has significant impact suggesting that any empirical investigation of the intra-day volume-volatility relationship needs to actively account for the impact of time elapse between trades.

Climate change impacts on biodiversity: a short introduction with special emphasis on the ALARM approach for the assessment of multiple risks

1 UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Community Ecology, Th eodor-LieserStr. 4, 06120 Halle, Germany 2 Vermont Energy Investment Corporation 155, S. Champlain St, Burlington VT 05401, USA 3 Finnish Environment Institute, Climate Change Programme, Box 140, 00251 Helsinki, Finland 4 L.U.P.O. GmbH, Friedhofstr. 28, 67705 Trippstadt, Germany 5 Department of Conservation Ecology and Entomology and Centre for Agricultural Biodiversity, Faculty of AgriSciences, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, 7602 Matieland, South Africa 6 Sustainable Europe Research Institute SERI Germany, Vorsterstr. 97–99, 51103 Cologne, Germany 7 Department of Plant Ecology, University of Bayreuth, University Street 30, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany

Understanding Local Adoption and Implementation of Climate Change Mitigation Policy

Increasingly, local governments are crafting policy to tackle climate change. This article examines why cities develop and implement climate change programs. The authors consider the impact of interest group pressure, political institutions, and problem severity on a city’s decision to develop and implement climate protection programs. Their results suggest that organized interests influence both adoption and implementation of climate mitigation programs. This effect, however, is contingent on political institutions. In general, organized interests are more effective in mayoral as opposed to city manager forms of governments. Interestingly, while financially strapped cities may adopt climate mitigation programs to advance cobenefits or cost savings, fiscal stress also impedes program implementation.

Mission Spirituality and Care for Creation: An introduction

Spiritual ecumenism is transformative: its road is long and the journey involves a permanent process of conversion, a change of mind and heart towards the fullness of life in Christ. As we listen and open ourselves to the demands of the Spirit of unity, we call upon spiritual ecumenism for the new energy we need in our faith journey. Spiritual ecumenism requires tolerance, patience, respect and also discernment and shared hope and love. Spiritual ecumenism, therefore, refers to a transformative spirituality and to a transformative experience of unity that affects persons and communities. When we apply it to mission, we envision a transformative experience as well. Key aspects of this adventure include, among others, Christian discipleship, discernment, commitment, witnessing, relationships and life-style. Communion is the main theological foundation of such a transformative experience as it draws life and consistency from the very life of the triune God. Capturing the blessing of this gift in the life of the church means being attentive to all realms of the human experience where we discover the gifts and fruits of the Holy Spirit. One of them is the space in which mission, spirituality and care for creation come together. The International Review of Mission (IRM) Vol. LXXVIX, No. 314, Spirit and Mission: Renewing the Earth, (April 1990) echoed the San Antonio World Mission Conference (1989) in preparation for the WCC Canberra Assembly (1991) Giver of Life--Sustain Your A number of articles, including the editorial by Christopher Duraisingh, (1) named relevant issues and directions in the last decade of the 20th century. One of the articles referred to them in these words: Our faithful response to the Triune God requires caring for creation in which we have been placed. Theological perspectives appropriate for our day see the wholeness of creation that God loves and humanity's interrelation to it. The church's missionary calling is to cooperate with God's action and intention for all the creation .... The ecumenical mission calling for our day is indeed care for the creation and its inhabitants. (2) Some years later, as we reach the end of the 21st century's first decade, the IRM welcomes again the concern, contributing to it with new insights and perspectives. This issue dedicates attention to the topic of creation at the heart of mission as a spiritual experience. Certain authors from a variety of cultures and Christian traditions have explored this rich space for growth in the Spirit and offer us their reflections, intuitions and experiences. How did they come together? The CWME Working Group on Mission and Spirituality met in Oinoi (Athens), Greece, from 22 to 27 March 2010 for the study of Transformative Spirituality, Holistic Mission and Care for It was the third meeting of the group in its journey for deepening relations between Mission and Spirituality. Previous meetings in Manila 2008 and Geneva 2009 had established the horizon, the framework and the main areas of concern as it tried to grasp the ways in which transformative spirituality of mission can serve the life of persons and communities in these times. (3) The encounter counted on the cooperation of the WCC Climate Change Programme. Most of the articles published in this IRM issue are based on the papers presented and reflections shared in this meeting. The main purpose of this Athens encounter was to explore and identify a vision that might articulate the connection between mission in the 21st century, transformative spirituality and care for creation. The exploration was approached from theological, social, ethical and spiritual perspectives. This ecumenical conversation allowed the group to state clearly that the way we place ourselves in creation, the way we see ourselves as creatures, affects the way we relate to God, to our fellow human beings and to the whole of Creation. …

Rapid climate change: lessons from the recent geological past

Rapid, or abrupt, climate change is regarded as a change in the climate system to a new state following the crossing of a threshold. It generally occurs at a rate exceeding that of the change in the underlying cause. Episodes of rapid climate change abound in the recent geological past (defined here as the interval between the last glacial maximum, dated to approximately 20,000 years ago, and the present). Rapid climate changes are known to have occurred over time periods equal to or even less than a human lifespan: moreover, their effects on the global system are sufficiently large to have had significant societal impacts. The potential for similar events to occur in the future provides an important impetus for investigating the nature and causes of rapid climate change. This paper provides a brief overview of rapid climate change and an introduction to this special issue, which presents results generated by the palaeoclimatic component of the UK Natural Environment Research Council's rapid climate change programme, called RAPID. The papers in the special issue employ palaeoclimatic proxy data-sets obtained from marine, ice core and terrestrial archives to reconstruct rapid climate change during the last glacial cycle, its subsequent termination and the ensuing Holocene interglacial; some papers also report new attempts to match the palaeoclimate data to hypothesised causes through numerical modelling. The results confirm the importance of freshwater forcing in triggering changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the close links between MOC and rapid climate change. While advancing our understanding of these linkages, the RAPID research has highlighted the need for further research in order to elucidate more specific details of the mechanisms involved.

China's Climate Change Policy Process: improved but still weak and fragmented

China has recently become the world's largest emitter of carbon and is already facing many harmful effects domestically from climate change. Chinese leaders have therefore made a high-level commitment to curb emissions, as evident in the 2007 National Climate Change Program. However, the government has missed many of its targets, in particular its goal of reducing energy intensity. This essay argues that China is missing its targets because of a number of factors which stem from the fragmented nature of China's authoritarian system. First, environmental policies are too broad and complicated, making it difficult for regulators to enforce the laws. Second, the current incentive structures of promotion and salary cause local officials to give higher priority to economic development than to environmental issues. Third, environmental regulators, such as the judiciary and environmental agencies, remain weak and impeded by enforcement obstacles. While positive changes have occurred, such as the emergence of NGOs and the media as environmental watchdogs and a burgeoning clean technology sector, much remains to be done to improve the long-term viability of climate change policies in China. Based on the preceding analysis, this essay recommends ways by which the government could improve the process of enacting and implementing climate change policies. It also urges the international community to sympathize with the Chinese government and, by leading the way, help the government gain greater compliance with climate change policies.

Is There a Stochastic Trend in European Union Emission Trading Scheme Prices?

The European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is the key policy instrument of the European Commissions Climate Change Program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012. The key asset traded under the scheme is the European Union Allowance (EUA). To further curtail greenhouse gas emissions the EU Allowance prices should follow a stationary path about a persistent upward trend. In this vein, this article finds evidence to the contrary indicating the presence of a stochastic trend (a unit root) in EU Allowance prices during the period from April 2005 through to July 2009. This finding is indicative of incoherence between the European Union ETS de jure policy, with regard to transiting to a low carbon economy, and EUA price behavior.

The European climate change program: An evaluation of stakeholder involvement and policy achievements

In order to step up its efforts in reducing climate change, the European Commission (hereafter: the Commission) has launched in June 2000 its European climate change program (hereafter: ECCP). This wide-ranging stakeholder consultation aimed at identifying and developing all elements necessary for a European climate change strategy. The ECCP formally came to a close in April 2003. This paper analyses the inner workings of ECCP, and how ECCP has delivered with regard to its objectives. Special attention is paid to ECCP’s Working Group 1, “Flexible Mechanisms”, which developed the foundations for the European emission trading scheme (hereafter: EU ETS). The paper draws on documents published on the Commission’s ECCP web-site, on academic literature, on press releases from stakeholders and on interviews with four participants in the ECCP process. Using this method, the paper offers important insights as to how the consensus-building for establishing the world’s biggest carbon-trading scheme has started long time before the formal legislative process.

An emerging equilibrium in the EU emissions trading scheme

The European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is the key policy instrument of the European Commission's Climate Change Program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012. A critically important element of the EU ETS is the establishment of a market determined price for EU allowances. This article examines the extent to which several theoretically founded factors including, economic growth, energy prices and weather conditions determine the expected prices of the European Union CO 2 allowances during the 2005 through to the 2009 period. The novel aspect of our study is that we examine heavily traded futures instruments that have an expiry date in Phase 2 of the EU ETS. Our study adopts both static and recursive versions of the Johansen multivariate cointegration likelihood ratio test as well as a variation on this test with a view to controlling for time varying volatility effects. Our results are indicative of a new pricing regime emerging in Phase 2 and point to a maturing market driven by the fundamentals. These results are valuable both for traders of EU allowances and for those policy makers seeking to improve the design of the European Union ETS.

Climate Labelling and the WTO: The 2010 EU Ecolabelling Programme as a Test Case Under WTO Law

Environmental labelling is increasingly used as an instrument of climate protection. This is underlined, for example, by the EU climate change programme, in which various labelling schemes are employed. Cases in point are the EU’s oft-discussed voluntary ecolabelling scheme, which takes a life-cycle approach, and its mandatory labelling scheme for cars. After the dubious outcome of the multilateral 2009 Copenhagen Climate Conference, the importance of instruments of this type may augment even further. Both mandatory and voluntary labelling schemes risk contravening WTO law: while mandatory labels restrict market access for non-complying products, labels that are granted under a voluntary scheme are meant to improve the perceived attractiveness of products that are awarded the label; hence, such labels may negatively affect the competitive conditions of other products, possibly disadvantaging imported products. Labelling schemes according to which information on a product’s environmental impacts over its life-cycle is included in a pertinent label fall into the category of process-based labels. It is well-known to WTO experts that such labelling schemes – in particular those based on ‘non-product-related processes and production methods’ – raise a considerable number of issues under WTO law. This contribution examines the EU’s voluntary eco-labelling scheme which was revised in 2000 and 2010. Due to its life-cycle approach, which since the scheme’s inception has taken into account e.g. energy consumption during production and use (besides further environmental impacts), this scheme has been intensely debated in trade and academic circles since its first version was introduced in 1992. The new 2010 EU scheme similarly considers the whole life cycle of products, including ‘the most significant environmental impacts, in particular the impact on climate change’. Therefore, and in view of the broad range of issues raised by it, this scheme presents a model test case under WTO law also for other climate-related labelling schemes and ecolabelling schemes more generally.

Table of Contents

Abstract NEWS Funder collaboratives offer rewards and challenges Foundations increase support for climate change programs SCUTTLEBUTT SPOTLIGHT Hotel industry Choice Hotels International Inc. Accor Carlson Hotels Worldwide Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. Wyndham Worldwide Corp. Banking industry BOK Financial Corp. Citigroup Inc. Wells Fargo and Co. The Bank of New York Mellon GRANT ALERTS Arts and Culture Arts Midwest Performing Arts Fund Henry Luce Foundation Fund for American Art Children and Youth Barron Prize for Young Heroes American Academy of Dermatology Shade Structure grants Disabilities Mitsubishi Electric America Foundation's Inclusion Champion Award Education ING Unsung Heroes grants Motorola Foundation Innovation Generation grants Jenzabar Foundation Student Leadership Awards Environment Earth Island Institute's Brower Youth Awards Health Horses for Humans research grants Journalism Rosalynn Carter Fellowships for Mental Health Journalism Religion John Templeton Award for Theological Promise Science and Technology Tech Museum of Innovation's Awards program

Global Warming and Changing Water Resources: Perceptions of Glacier Retreat in Mountain Regions

We are four anthropologists who form a research group on perceptions of and responses to glacier retreat. The massive retreat of mountain glaciers during the twentieth century is one of the most visible and high confidence level indicators of global warming. Melting glaciers create a period of greater water availability, followed by a period of greater water scarcity when they have shrunk. The effects of climate change on the seasonal distribution and year-to-year variability in water supply are also of importance. Changing water availability interacts with local water management systems, the integration of local systems in regional and larger systems, and the effects of climate change programs and policies on water management. We draw on a variety of methods (ethnography, survey research, archival work) to understand how people associate glacier retreat with changing water availability. Our work is ongoing and is being carried out in three sites: the North Cascades of Washington State; the Cordillera Blanca in Ancash, Peru; and the South Tirol in the Italian Alps. Each site contains two to four villages or towns, all with populations less than 1,000. In all areas, water is important as an economic resource (supporting agriculture, livestock, hydropower production and tourism); water-related hazards, particularly floods and mudflows, are also significant. In addition, water is a key element in cultural landscapes; its presence in many forms—ice, snow, springs, rivers, lakes—is a crucial element of regional identities.

Congressional Briefing on Climate Change Impacts and Adaption

During an 8 January 2010 congressional briefing on climate change cosponsored by AGU, speakers discussed the impacts of climate change in the United States and the ability of society to cope with these impacts. More than 200 congressional and federal agency staff attended the briefing, which featured Michael MacCracken, chief scientist for climate change programs at the Climate Institute; Kristie Ebi, executive director of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 2 Technical Support Unit; Katharine Jacobs, professor at the University of Arizona's Soil, Water and Environmental Science Department; and Susanne Moser, director and principal researcher at Susanne Moser Research and Consulting.

Small actor, big opinion: Least developed countries participation in climate change networks

Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are among the poorest countries in the world. They release little or no greenhouse gases emissions into atmosphere, making them the least responsible for climate change. Additionally, LDCs lack the finances, technology, and infrastructure to contribute to the enhancement of the international climate change regime. By all accounts these countries have every incentive to free ride off the climate change policies and programs of other countries. Yet, instead of allowing the negotiations to be dominated by the wealthy Annex I countries, the LDCs choose to be active in the meetings of climate change regime. Applying network analysis to the UNFCCC COP 14 conference, this paper uncovers the participation patters of the LDCs with a particular emphasis on meetings involving technology transfer and financial mechanisms.

The EU emissions trading scheme

AbstractAs the centrepiece of the European Union's Climate Change Programme, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has attracted significant attention from scholars interested in the regulatory and technical issues raised by the scheme. This article reviews the current state of knowledge about emissions trading arising from this research. Three broad strands of enquiry are identified: studies of the international and EU‐domestic pressures that led to the EU's conversion to emissions trading; analyses of the political processes that accompanied negotiation of the emissions trading directives; and investigations into regulatory problems encountered during the scheme's early years. From this, avenues for further research on emissions trading are proposed: (1) analyses of the consequences for the scheme of political decisions made during its negotiation, (2) further analysis of the behaviour of traders in the EU ETS market, (3) greater investigation of the scheme's implications for equity issues,and(4) comparison of emissions trading against nonmarket instruments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance

Is There a Stochastic Trend in European Union Emission Trading Scheme Prices?

The European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is the key policy instrument of the European Commissions Climate Change Program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012. The key asset traded under the scheme is the European Union Allowance (EUA). To further curtail greenhouse gas emissions the EU Allowance prices should follow a stationary path about a persistent upward trend. In this vein, this article finds evidence to the contrary indicating the presence of a stochastic trend (a unit root) in EU Allowance prices during the period from April 2005 through to July 2009. This finding is indicative of an incoherence between the European Union ETS de jure policy, with regard to transiting to a low carbon economy, and EUA price behaviour.