Climate Change Planning Research Articles

Climate Change and Heatwaves in India: Review of Impacts on Public Health, Livelihoods, and Policy

This paper presents a literature review studying the impacts of climate change and heatwaves on public health and livelihoods, with a focus on India. As global climate change accelerates, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, necessitating new approaches to mitigate their effects on vulnerable populations, especially in urban areas. The review draws on recent studies (2021-2024) that explore the intersections of climate change, heatwaves, public health, livelihoods, policy interventions, and Heat Action Plans. The main findings reveal that heatwaves in India have significant public health impacts, such as increased mortality and morbidity, and disproportionately affect livelihoods, especially in agriculture and informal labor sectors. Vulnerable populations, including urban dwellers and informal workers, face heightened risks, further exacerbated by inadequate infrastructure and policy gaps. The purpose of this review is to synthesize current research to highlight these vulnerabilities and identify gaps in knowledge and policy response. A comprehensive, localized approach combining detailed risk assessments, nature-based solutions, technological innovations, and strengthened governance is essential for effective heatwave management in India. The findings underscore the urgent need for continued research focused on local spaces and comprehensive policy interventions to address the escalating risks posed by climate-induced heatwaves, setting the groundwork for future research and effective heatwave management strategies.

Wildlife Tourism and Climate Change: Perspectives on Maasai Mara National Reserve

The impact of climate change on nature-based tourism is gaining significance. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change and tourism stakeholders’ perspectives on the subject in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and World Heritage Site. Surveys and interviews were used to collect data. The main climate-related threats to tourism were heavy rain, floods, and extreme droughts. These events adversely impacted infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and accommodation facilities, and outdoor tourism activities, such as game viewing, cultural tours, birdwatching, and hot air ballooning. They also exacerbated human–wildlife conflicts. The key challenges identified in dealing with impacts were poor planning, non-prioritizing climate change as a threat, a lack of expertise, inadequate research, and a lack of internal early warning systems. The key recommendations included prioritization of climate change planning, development of internal early warning systems, and building resilience toward climate-related disasters. This study contributes to practice by making recommendations for management and other stakeholders. It also extends the discussions of climate change and tourism to wildlife tourism destinations in Africa.

Capturing the health and well-being impact of climate change: a health impact assessment in Wales

Abstract Climate change is one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century and is likely to impact on health through a range of factors (societal, economic or environmental). The need to take action on climate and nature emergencies in order to protect population health and well-being and prevent negative impacts are becoming more urgent. Public Health Wales carried out a comprehensive mixed-method Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of climate change in Wales. HIA is a systematic process which considers the impact of a policy on the health and well-being of a population. It appraised the potential impacts of climate change on health and inequalities in Wales. This involved participatory workshops, engagement with stakeholders, statistical data, systematic literature reviews and case studies. The HIA findings indicate significant potential impacts across the determinants of health and mental well-being. For example, air quality, flooding, economic productivity, working conditions, access to services and community resilience. Impacts were identified across population groups, settings, and areas including urban and rural contexts, outdoor workers, children and young people, older people, schools, hospitals and workplaces. These findings have been beneficial to inform decision-makers to prepare for climate change plans and policies using a preventative evidence-informed approach. The work has demonstrated the value of HIA for significant, complex policies by mobilising a range of evidence through a transparent process, resulting in government and organizational action and transferrable learning for others. Key messages • HIA is a beneficial tool to identify at a granular level the health impacts of climate change. • The HIA has been used by the government of Wales and organisations to respond to and plan for climate change.

Soil-Based Emissions and Context-Specific Climate Change Planning to Support the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) on Climate Action: A Case Study of Georgia (USA)

Soil-based emissions from land conversions are often overlooked in climate planning. The objectives of this study were to use quantitative data on soil-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the state of Georgia (GA) (USA) to examine context-specific (temporal, biophysical, economic, and social) climate planning and legal options to deal with these emissions. Currently, 30% of the land in GA has experienced anthropogenic land degradation (LD) primarily due to agriculture (64%). All seven soil orders were subject to various degrees of anthropogenic LD. Increases in overall LD between 2001 and 2021 indicate a lack of land degradation neutrality (LDN) in GA. Besides agricultural LD, there was also LD caused by increased development through urbanization, with 15,197.1 km2 developed, causing midpoint losses of 1.2 × 1011 kg of total soil carbon (TSC) with a corresponding midpoint social cost from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (SC-CO2) of USD $20.4B (where B = billion = 109, $ = U.S. dollars (USD)). Most developments occurred in the Metro Atlanta and Coastal Economic Development Regions, which indicates reverse climate change adaptation (RCCA). Soil consumption from developments is an important issue because it limits future soil or forest carbon (C) sequestration potential in these areas. Soil-based emissions should be included in GA’s carbon footprint. Understanding the geospatial and temporal context of land conversion decisions, as well as the social and economic costs, could be used to create incentives for land management that limit soil-based GHG emissions in a local context with implications for relevant United Nations (UN) initiatives.

A review of climate change and cardiovascular diseases in the Indian policy context.

There is growing evidence that climate change adversely affects human health. Multiple diseases are sensitive to climate change, including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which are also the leading cause of death globally. Countries such as India face a compounded challenge, with a growing burden of CVDs and a high vulnerability to climate change, requiring a co-ordinated, multi-sectoral response. In this framework synthesis, we analysed whether and how CVDs are addressed with respect to climate change in the Indian policy space. We identified 10 relevant national-level policies, which were analysed using the framework method. Our analytical framework consisted of four themes: (i) political commitment; (ii) health information systems; (iii) capacity building; and (iv) cross-sectoral actions. Additionally, we analysed a subset of these policies and 29 state-level climate change and health action plans using content analysis to identify health priorities. Our analyses revealed a political commitment in addressing the health impacts of climate change; however, CVDs were poorly contextualized with most of the efforts focusing on vector-borne and other communicable diseases, despite their recognized burden. Heat-related illnesses and cardiopulmonary diseases were also focused on but failed to encompass the most climate-sensitive aspects. CVDs are insufficiently addressed in the existing surveillance systems, despite being mentioned in several policies and interventions, including emergency preparedness in hospitals and cross-sectoral actions. CVDs are mentioned as a separate section in only a small number of state-level plans, several of which need an impetus to complete and include CVD-specific sections. We also found several climate-health policies for specific diseases, albeit not for CVDs. This study identified important gaps in India's disease-specific climate change response and might aid policy makers in strengthening future versions of these policies and boost research and context-specific interventions on climate change and CVDs.

A statistical model of solar radiation absorption in the United States

The transitivity of solar radiation in the atmosphere varies greatly depending on location, time of day, earth-to-sun distance, angle of incidence, and other variables. Solar radiation has an impact on climate change and can be used as energy. So, its modelling will help plan and design policies for climate change and the sustainable use of energy. This study aimed to investigate solar energy patterns and trends on the Earth’s surface via solar radiation absorption by cloud cover. Data on solar radiation absorption from 133 stations between the years 1998 and 2020 across the United States were downloaded from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) website. A linear regression model was used to model solar absorption by cloud and factor analysis was used to group the regions by reducing the spatial correlation of solar radiation absorption. After that, a multivariate regression model was utilized to investigate average changes. There were seven regions obtained from factor analysis. All regions showed a seasonal pattern, with the peak in December to January and the lowest level in June to July. The north, north-east, or south-east of the country experienced an increase in solar radiation absorption, while the north-west, central, and south of the country experienced a decrease. The overall average absorption increased by 0.015%. The patterns and trends of solar radiation by location and time help climate scientists make better decisions. It is also useful to manage renewable energy sources, which will lead policymakers to make better policies.

Assessing Vulnerability and Prioritization of Cultural Assets for Climate Change Planning in Collier County, Southwest Florida

Cultural resources are often overlooked in climate change and resiliency planning, despite them being integral to community identity and the restoration of a sense of normalcy after significant weather events. This vulnerability assessment demonstrates how cultural resources can be included in planning efforts, and how they can be prioritized based on specific criteria. To complete this assessment, a working group with local land managers and cultural resource professionals was formed, and members employed a sophisticated Geo Tool, ACUNE (Adaptation of Coastal Urban and Natural Ecosystems) for climate adaptation, to predict how cultural resources throughout Collier County, Florida, would be impacted in two specific climate scenarios. The working group selected ten significant sites in the county and used ACUNE to prioritize action at these sites, using a matrix of hazard exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and the environmental, social, and economic consequences of the loss of these sites. Based on the results of our case study vulnerability assessment of cultural resources in Collier County, the next decade (2020 to 2030) has the potential to increase the number of sites at risk of storm flooding from 267 to 318, alerting managers that immediate action is needed for the sites of greatest value. The analysis of 10 case study sites is presented to demonstrate an approach for land managers and other cultural resource professionals to prioritize action at their own sites.

Communicating climate futures: a multi-country study of how the media portray the IPCC scenarios in the 2021/2 Working Group reports

The way governments and policy makers think about climate futures has a wide-ranging impact on how they formulate policy and plan for climate change impacts. In the lead-up to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the IPCC adopted a new scenarios framework that aimed to provide a fuller picture of the interacting elements and policy choices that affect climate change. However, these scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), are complex and difficult to communicate. Most audiences, including policy makers, receive much of their information about climate change from mainstream media, and particularly online news sites. We therefore examined the five most popular online news sites in the UK and the USA, five popular English-language news sites in India, English-language news media from a wide range of African countries, and the Reuters News agency. Based on manual content analysis to assess 252 articles, we identify several important findings, amongst them: in all countries, the media provide little detailed explanation of how scenarios are developed, very little mention of SSPs, and virtually no detailed explanations of them; generally, journalists use the words ‘projections’, ‘futures’, and ‘pathways’ when talking about the IPCC scenarios, although some usage of ‘predictions’ or ‘forecasts’ is apparent; contrary to previous research, there were very few doomsday narratives such as ‘only 12 years to act’. We conclude by drawing out some implications for more effective communication of the IPCC scenarios.

Tourism-related economic loss and damage from the North Island weather events on New Zealand conservation land and waters

Extreme weather events are causing increasing levels of loss and damage, including to natural assets and associated nature-based tourism economies. This article provides estimates of the economic impacts on public conservation lands and waters in New Zealand's North Island from the flooding events of Cyclone Hale and Cyclone Gabrielle in early 2023. Losses and damage are estimated in four buckets: regional tourism GDP losses from cancelled visitor bookings at Department of Conservation accommodation facilities; lost business revenue of companies operating in protected areas; lost value of government-managed visitor assets; and regional tourism GDP losses from estimated reductions in visitor numbers at three iconic protected area sites. The research also attributes a proportion of these losses to climate change, assisting learning and future planning for New Zealand's conservation agency.

Evaluation of hydrological responses to climate change in the Gibe Gojeb catchment, southwestern Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The expected influences of climate alteration on hydrological responses in the Gibe Gojeb catchment, southwestern Ethiopia, were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and regional climate models (RCMs). This study emphasizes the evaluation of the climate change impact on hydrological responses. The RCM data were downloaded from CORDEX-Africa. Power transformation and delta change methods were used for bias correction of precipitation and temperature, respectively. The calibration and validation of the SWAT model showed good agreement, and climate change impact was simulated. Accordingly, precipitation, soil water content, percolation, water yield, and groundwater are projected to decrease by 28.18, 7.5, 9.1, 5.4, and 9.2%, respectively, under RCP4.5 in the future (2021–2050). Besides, surface runoff and potential and actual evapotranspiration are projected to increase by 17.4, 11.32, and 5.06%, respectively. Soil water content, percolation, water yield, and precipitation are projected to decrease by 10.51, 5.63, 2.76, and 21.57%, respectively, under RCP8.5 in the future. Rain-fed crop production and hydropower generation in the catchment would be vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The results help to develop effective adaptation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change and draft long-term water resource management plans in the Gibe Gojeb catchment.

Urban Green Space Research Progress and Hotspots Evolution Analysis: Visual Analysis based on WOS

Background and objective: Over the past few decades, urban green space research has emerged as a pivotal field within urban planning, ecology, and environmental science, achieving substantial advancements. This study endeavors to elucidate the trajectory of development and evolving hotspots in urban green space research through a visual analysis of the Web of Science (WOS) database.Methods: This study employs CiteSpace software to visualize the dataset, encompassing the analysis of keywords, abstracts, institutions, authors, references, and more, presenting the knowledge structure graphically. Additionally, it utilizes the LLR tag extraction algorithm to generate a keyword co-occurrence map and conduct clustering and grouping.Results: The findings reveal that the preeminent contributors in urban green space research include Haase, Dagmar, and Nizamani, Mir Muhammad. Furthermore, the collaborative network among researchers underscores the significance of interdisciplinary and cross-border cooperation in advancing urban green space research. Keyword co-occurrence analysis identifies prevalent themes such as land surface temperature and health, highlighting the current focal points of urban green space research.Conclusion: This study discerns heightened attention to topics encompassing the thermal environment, ecosystem services, biodiversity, green space accessibility, and vegetation. These themes mirror societal concerns regarding the influence of urban green spaces on climate change and spatial planning, thereby delineating avenues for future research.

Determining the Public Health Impact of Climate Change: A National Study Using a Health Impact Assessment Approach in Wales.

Objective: Climate change is recognised as the biggest threat to global health of the 21st century and impacts on health and wellbeing through a range of factors. Due to this, the need to take action in order to protect population health and wellbeing is becoming ever more urgent. Methods: In 2019, Public Health Wales carried out a comprehensive mixed-method Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of climate change. Unlike other risk assessments, it appraised the potential impact of climate change on health and inequalities in Wales through participatory workshops, stakeholder consultations, systematic literature reviews and case studies. Results: The HIA findings indicate potential impacts across the wider determinants of health and wellbeing. For example, air quality, excess heat/cold, flooding, economic productivity, infrastructure, and community resilience. A range of impacts were identified across population groups, settings, and geographical areas. Conclusion: These findings can inform decision-makers to prepare for climate change plans and policies using an evidence-informed approach. The work has demonstrated the value of a HIA approach by mobilising a range of evidence through a transparent process, resulting in transferrable learning for others.

Bangladesh's pathways to climate-resilient development: A methodical review

Climate resilient development pathways (CRDP) are procedures that reinforce sustainable development and reduce poverty and inequalities while meeting adaptation and mitigation targets. The study systematically assessed Bangladesh's efforts to combat climate change and evaluated its progress toward CRDP with a degree of confidence approach. It also assessed climate change vulnerability, national climate change plans and policies, climate finance conditions, and environmental sustainability. The study revealed that the recent climate change plans and strategies have transformative, social inclusiveness, gender responsiveness, climate resilience, institutional flexibility and coordination, and target setting and monitoring attributes from a moderate to large extent. However, to implement its recently developed climate plans like the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan, Delta Plan, NAP, and NDC, where funding is essential—the nation needs USD 533.7 billion. The study suggests that though the country has implemented several plans and strategies in recent decades, uneven progress has appeared in some important socio-economic and environmental indicators as well as SDGs which signifies low return against investment. It can be concluded that ensuring maximum socio-economic and environmental return on investment, long-term climate finance, strengthening local govt. organizations, adopting region specific and holistic approaches with private sector engagement would advance CRDP attainment as well as a nature positive economy and system transition in Bangladesh.

Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

The present study utilized an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of Diospyros melanoxylon under present, past (last glacial maximum (LGM), ~ 22 000 years BP, middle Holocene (MH) ~ 6000 years BP) and future climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5 for 2050s and 2070s). The annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and annual precipitations were the most critical parameters that chiefly influence the distribution of D. melanoxylon. The ensemble model rendered high accuracy with AUC = 0.93, TSS = 0.74 and Kappa = 0.71. Past projections of D. melanoxylon indicated a widespread distribution during LGM and MH suggesting its adaptability to semi‐dry as well as warm and humid climate, respectively. Presence of fossil pollen evidence of D. melanoxylon in the suitable habitats derived through past projections in this study complements the model results and marks occurrences of the species during LGM and MH. By 2050s and 2070s (RCP 8.5), there would be a decline in the distribution by only 0.4% (13 622 km2) and 0.2% (6842 km2) of the extremely suitable habitats, respectively. The main factor leading to reduced habitat suitability is the anticipated rise in temperature and variations in seasonal precipitation patterns. Our findings, help in identifying the parts of the country which would be severely affected by future climate change scenarios and plan conservation strategies for this commercially important species to facilitate its growth in suitable habitats which are likely to sustain under future climatic conditions.

Enhancing climate change planning and adaptive management in marine protected areas through targets, thresholds, and social-ecological objectives

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are being deployed globally to protect the Earth’s biodiversity in rapidly changing oceans. Nesting climate change considerations within adaptive MPA management and monitoring is becoming a more common approach, and while climate change is increasingly addressed in MPA planning, implementation gaps remain. This study applied the climate robustness index (CRI) to MPA monitoring plans to assess how climate change is outlined within site- and regional-level plans. Previously developed to assess MPA management plans, the CRI scores plans based on their degree of incorporation of climate change adaptation principles, including core elements of adaptive management. We supplemented our CRI findings for monitoring plans by associating index scores of MPAs in the United States with selected MPA traits, as well as by examining specific physical, ecological, and sociological climate change impacts that were being considered within the monitoring scope of a subset of monitoring plans. We found considerable gaps in actionable targets and thresholds in MPA monitoring plans, consistent with a previous study evaluating MPA management plans, demonstrating that the adaptive management cycle is incomplete in many cases. We consider the importance of completing the adaptive management cycle as a core climate adaptation strategy, and explore the roles of social-ecological objectives and local partnerships as avenues to continue to improve MPA outcomes in a changing world.

Local knowledge in forest management: a case study in java forest, indonesia

Forests are currently faced with the challenge of increasingly widespread forest degradation, threatening human life at the global level due to climate change and unexpected plans. In this context, the role of local knowledge is considered strategic in sustainable forest management. In line with the dynamics of global change, local knowledge often needs to be adapted, complemented, or preserved to continue contributing to forestry development. Similarly, in the case of forests in Indonesia, climate change can influence local knowledge of forest management. Consequently, there is a need for studies on how communities adapt their traditional practices to climate change and the impact of such adaptations on the sustainability of forest resources. Through a qualitative method with case studies, this research was conducted to identify and understand local community knowledge and its role in forest management. The research was conducted in Wonokerto Village, Rembang Regency, Central Java Province, Indonesia. Data was collected from January-October 2023 using observation and interview techniques involving 21 informants from Forest Village Community Institutions (LMDH) representatives, forest farmers, facilitators, forest police, Perhutani, and local community leaders. The interactive model analyses data through data collection, reduction, verification, and presentation. Research shows local knowledge of forest communities emerging from various values and norms, cultural rituals, forest management practices, and local institutions. As a result, this local knowledge positively contributes to forest sustainability, where a balanced relationship between society and the forest is well maintained.

Making a case for nature‐based solutions for a sustainable built environment in Africa

AbstractThe potential of using nature‐based solutions to address issues of climate change has continued to gain momentum, especially in developed nations. However, the same cannot be said for developing countries, particularly in Africa, where the knowledge and awareness of natural solutions are low, and research on their application within the built environment is scant. Using a sciento‐metric and narrative review of published literature, this paper makes a case for research exploration on nature‐based solutions for a sustainable built environment in Africa. The findings revealed an opportunity for significant research contributions on nature‐based solutions in addressing flood risk management, climate change and urban planning, water quality and carbon emission, sustainable development, and green infrastructure and urban development. These areas are the critical focus of past studies explored. Also, the findings offer guidance for further studies to be conducted in less explored areas, such as carbon sequestration, greenhouse gases, energy utilisation, indoor comfort, and numeric models for using nature‐based solutions within the African context. The findings of the study offer an excellent theoretical background to direct researchers and practitioners who seek to attain and promote sustainable built environments through nature‐based solutions, especially in Africa.

Local multilevel governance arrangements for climate change planning and management in Kumasi, Ghana

Institutions play crucial roles in addressing and building resilence to climate risks. Whereas planning for and addressing climate change issues through multilevel goverence (MLG) has become inevitable, there has been a disparity in the attention given to different levels of MLG. The focus of MLG research has predominantly centered around supranational and national levels, with limited empirical studies on subnational MLG governance; hence, this research. This study thus focuses on the city of Kumasi (specifically, Kumasi Metropolitan Area) in Ghana as a case study to examine the role of MLG at the subnational level in climate change planning and management. Seven relevant climate change and local/city planning agencies were sampled purposively for appropriate data. It was clearly revealed that these actors who operate at various levels and jurisdiction, address climate challenges in accordance with their respective primary responsibilities. While such MLG arrangement exists for addressing climate change in the city of Kumasi, there are many challenges that derail effective collaboration and any meaningful outcome within such governance framework. The collaboration among the authorities involved in planning and managing climate change action in Kumasi remains weak coupled with overlaps in their formal roles and responsibilities. Additionally, there is no evidence of any meaningful action being undertaken within such governance arrangement to address climate change contrary to the expectation that MLG should have enhanced interactions in terms of planning for climate change. The study recommends that the MLG framework should encourage learning across different levels and facilitate interactions among various organizations, promoting innovation in climate adaptation and mitigation initiatives.

СУТНІСТЬ ІМІТАЦІЙНОГО МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ

The article examines the issue of the essence of simulation modeling. As our world grows increasingly complex, understanding and managing intricate systems become more challenging. Imitative modeling offers a way to simplify and study these systems, providing valuable insights into their behavior and interactions. Advancements in technology, particularly in computing power and simulation software, have made imitative modeling more sophisticated and accessible. This technological progress enables more accurate and detailed simulations, enhancing the value and applicability of modeling across various fields. Imitative modeling provides a tool to simulate different scenarios, evaluate options, and optimize outcomes, thus supporting better decision-making processes. Furthermore, imitative modeling drives innovation by identifying new approaches or configurations that optimize performance. Whether it's designing a new product, improving a manufacturing process, or optimizing a supply chain, modeling can help find the best solutions to complex problems. Addressing global challenges such as climate change, environmental sustainability, public health, and urban planning requires informed strategies and policies. Imitative modeling can play a crucial role in this by simulating the impact of different interventions or policies, thereby informing better approaches to tackle these pressing issues. Additionally, imitative modeling serves as a valuable educational tool, helping students understand complex concepts and theories through practical application. It also supports research by providing a framework for hypothesis testing, data analysis, and validation. It is noted that the widespread use of simulation modeling became a reality at a certain stage of the development of information technologies, which include means of collecting, transmitting, processing and storing information. These means include not only computers, but also computational mathematics tools, multi-level programming tools, database management systems, data banks, and others. The simulation model is a complex mathematical and algorithmic structure, which is intended for the study of a certain system. The method, which is based on the creation and analysis of simulation models, is called "machine simulation" or "simulation modeling".

The Pathway to NDC and Carbon Neutrality: Roles of Optimum Degree between Marginal Abatement Cost and Social Cost of Carbon in the Thai Power and Industrial Sector

Thailand has formulated its climate change policy and updated the relevant plans and policies to align with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality and net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated the optimal level of GHG mitigation in Thailand by taking into account the marginal abatement cost (MAC) and social cost of carbon (SCC). The research also evaluated how energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies could influence GHG reduction in the power and industrial sectors and illustrate policy recommendations that could be aligned with the 2020–2050 policy and plan period. The findings indicated that there could be instances where GHG mitigation potential would be insufficient to reach the national milestone. In such cases, it would become imperative to leverage all technologies within the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) and also utilize the SCC for policy decision-making and meeting the desired goals. In certain scenarios, the adoption of additional technologies or measures would be necessary, such as flexible power generation and deploying carbon capture and storage or hydrogen, which are high-cost technologies. Furthermore, preparations should be made for multiple levels of climate change policies and plans beyond 2030.