Climate Change Negotiations Research Articles

Climate change and loss and damage in Bangladesh*

Climate change increasingly affects social, economic and ecological systems, particularly in the most vulnerable regions of the world. The most frequently promoted strategies for handling impacts are mitigation and adaptation. Despite employing these two approaches, ‘loss and damage’ (L&D) may still occur. Thus, a third strategic approach may be needed to help vulnerable communities deal with damage associated with climate impacts, which can take many forms including economic and non-economic loss. How to assess and manage L&D remains subject to contentious debate within climate change negotiations. There is still no clear and commonly accepted understanding of L&D consolidated in law or policy at the international level. In this article, it is confirmed that conflicting or unclear framing of L&D is one of the main explanations for the slow progress in accepting L&D as an important third approach – in addition to mitigation and adaptation – needed to measure and manage global impacts of climate change. This article analyses how L&D is currently framed in policy and institutional terms and identifies the main challenges to addressing it at the national and international levels. Better to understand the challenges of incorporating L&D into climate change strategies, the case of Bangladesh is examined.

Catalytic leadership in climate change negotiations: a reply to ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’ by Ulrich J. Frey and Jazmin Burgess

"Catalytic leadership in climate change negotiations: a reply to ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’ by Ulrich Frey and Jazmin Burgess" published on 15 Jun 2023 by Bristol University Press.

Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems

Climate change is perhaps the biggest challenge of our times. In order to cope with it, we have to organise action collectively. The most important way to cooperate globally is through United Nations negotiations, known as ‘conferences of the parties’. However, progress has been very slow, and disillusionment with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process has set in. From a scientific point of view, several obstacles surfacing in these negotiations have been well researched. Institutional analysis may provide suggestions or even solutions to some of these problems. Hence, we think that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations could profit from scientific support. We provide scientific background for three prominent problems: how to reconcile different interests in a global public goods situation; how to ameliorate the consensus decision-making process; and how to design institutions to implement resolutions. Enhancing communication, trust and fairness, and enforcing sanctions, are suggested as key elements for that. Finally, we point to similar processes that have been brought to a successful end.

What can be expected of the United Nations climate change negotiations? A reply to commentaries on ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’ by Ulrich J. Frey and Jazmin Burgess

What can be expected of the United Nations climate change negotiations? A reply to commentaries on ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’ by Ulrich J. Frey and Jazmin Burgess

The Paris Agreement has the potential to facilitate ambitious climate action: a reply to ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’ by Ulrich J. Frey and Jazmin Burgess

"The Paris Agreement has the potential to facilitate ambitious climate action: a reply to ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’ by Ulrich J. Frey and Jazmin Burgess" published on 13 Oct 2022 by Bristol University Press.

Overcoming stalled implementation: a reply to ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’ by Ulrich J. Frey and Jazmin Burgess

"Overcoming stalled implementation: a reply to ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’, by Ulrich Frey and Jazmin Burgess" published on 12 Apr 2022 by Bristol University Press.

Great expectations? A reply to ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’ by Ulrich J. Frey and Jazmin Burgess

"Great expectations? A reply to ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’ by Ulrich Frey and Jazmin Burgess" published on 23 Sep 2022 by Bristol University Press.

Transformational learning and engagement on climate action for students attending a climate negotiation

When Greta Thunberg addressed world leaders at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)’s 24th Conference of Parties (COP24), it highlighted how young people including Indigenous youth are seeking to influence international climate change negotiations. However, young people face barriers to effectively engaging in the COP processes with few opportunities to learn about the structure and practices for COP Observers. In this paper, we describe and evaluate a structured learning experience developed to support students conducting research related to climate change and their engagement with international climate negotiations. Before attending the COP24, students were given in-person and online training about the UNFCCC, its processes, and major issues under negotiation. They also developed and presented their work during a COP side event. Through pre- and post-surveys and in-depth interviews, we asked students about their expectations and degree of engagement and agency at the COP and more broadly on climate action. Students reported that the academic scaffolding before and during the COP provided most of the students with tools for navigating the complexities of the COP. For all of the students, learning through engagement with the COP24 process supported greater self-efficacy and literacy in relation to climate change action.

Embodied Carbon Accounting for Forest Industry Trade in BRICS Countries: An MRIO Modeling Approach

A multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model was constructed to measure and compare the trade-induced carbon emissions within the forest industry among the BRICS countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The results indicate the following: (1) The primary source of import/export-related carbon emissions from the forest industry in BRICS countries is the trade of paper products, with the exception of Russia, where wood products significantly contribute to its export-related carbon emissions. (2) The net carbon emissions from forest industry trade in BRICS countries underwent varying degrees of volatility during the period from 2008 to 2013. (3) China and Russia exhibited notably higher levels of trade-induced carbon emissions in their forest industries compared to other BRICS nations, while the scale of embodied carbon emissions from international trade in the forest industry of South Africa, Brazil, and India remained relatively similar. (4) The trade-induced carbon emissions of the forest industry in BRICS countries were predominantly export-oriented between 1995 and 2018. Therefore, it is recommended that BRICS nations prioritize addressing carbon emissions within the forest industry’s trade sector. Collaborative efforts should be intensified to promote cleaner development pathways, foster sustainable economic growth, and take a more proactive stance in global climate change negotiations.

The evolution of climate justice claims in global climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC

ABSTRACT A growing body of research suggests that the global conception of climate change is increasingly taking a justice-focus. However, the justice-framings of different actors in the UNFCCC process and their evolution have not yet been examined. We conduct a critical discourse analysis of climate justice claims of state and non-state actors in COP15, COP19, COP21 and COP24 which are key moments for climate justice under the UNFCCC. Our findings indicate that the UNFCCC has not delivered on climate justice, power stands out as a key issue in the negotiations, and the negotiations reproduce structures of climate injustice. We identified four new country groupings with different climate justice frames. The Radicals consider climate change an imminent threat, while Opportunists seek to benefit from it. The Hypocrites recognize their contribution to climate change but avoid responsibility through libertarian mechanisms. The Evaders construe justice a normative issue and block others’ justice claims. These groupings help discern how justice framings have evolved and how they are used in strategic ways to advance interests in multilateral forums.

Overlooked No More: Empowering Youth Voices in Global Climate-Change Negotiations

Youth participation in climate change negotiations has increased over the last decade; however, youth voices are still underrepresented. The diversity of youth activists in the Americas and the sheer number of youth-led organizations belies any stereotypes about disinterested youth. Youth care about both the present and the future of our planet; are organizing; and have many voices. Yet, there are currently weak institutional mechanisms to integrate these voices into climate negotiations beyond showcasing experiences. Youth must be included in collaborative and transdisciplinary ways. We recommend opportunities that have had success in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), which help youth to engage in discussions with policymakers to inform climate negotiations. These recommendations include the following: 1) institutionalizing formal national and regional youth councils and committees to strengthen collaboration between young people and decision-makers; 2) creating and expanding training programs for youth on climate negotiations; 3) using science diplomacy as a key tool to enhance science-based, relevant, and collaborative efforts for youth engagement; and 4) developing strategies to navigate the diversity of expertise, scientific knowledge, and inclusion of youth to address equitable climate solutions.

Revealing effective regional decarbonisation measures to limit global temperature increase in uncertain transition scenarios with machine learning techniques

Climate change mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models have been extensively used to support climate change negotiations on the global stage. To date, most studies exploring ensembles of these scenarios focus on the global picture, with more limited attention to regional metrics. A systematic approach is still lacking to improve the understanding of regional heterogeneity, highlighting key regional decarbonisation measures and their relative importance for meeting global climate goals under deep uncertainty. This study proposes a novel approach to gaining robust insights into regional decarbonisation strategies using machine learning techniques based on the IPCC SR1.5 scenario database. Random forest analysis first reveals crucial metrics to limit global temperature increases. Logistic regression modelling and the patient rule induction method are then used to identify which of these metrics and their combinations are most influential in meeting climate goals below 2 °C or below 1.5 °C. Solar power and sectoral electrification across all regions have been found to be the most effective measures to limit temperature increases. To further limit increase below 1.5 °C and not only 2 °C, decommissioning of unabated gas plants should be prioritised along with energy efficiency improvements. Bioenergy and wind power show higher regional heterogeneity in limiting temperature increases, with lower influences than aforementioned measures, and are especially relevant in Latin America (bioenergy) and countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Former Soviet Union (bioenergy and wind). In the future, a larger scenario ensemble can be applied to reveal more robust and comprehensive insights.

Unanimity or standing aside? Reinterpreting consensus in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations

What is the meaning of ‘consensus’ within and beyond the UNFCCC? What alternative interpretations of consensus are available based on consensus facilitation practice and related literature? This article assesses the mismatch between how the UNFCCC interprets consensus and its broader interpretation in the facilitation practice literature, and proposes a way forward using the concept of ‘standing aside’ more prominently. The restrictive consensus interpretation has far-reaching implications for the ability of the world’s central climate regime to be fit for purpose, i.e., facilitating multilateral climate action. The analysis of consensus in the UNFCCC points to the central problems of unpredictability and ambiguity in the determination that consensus exists. Many negotiators and chairs acknowledge the problem of predominantly interpreting consensus as unanimity and have subsequently sought ways to address the damage it does through ad hoc rulings that consensus exists sometimes by ignoring the expressions of objection; however, this comes at the expense of a good predictable process.

Negotiating Climate Change in Crisis

Negotiating Climate Change in Crisis

Negotiating climate change in public discourse: insights from critical discourse studies

ABSTRACT This Special Issue collects five articles that are located in the present global context, and draw on methods from across critical discourse studies (CDS) to examine the interaction between material realities of climate change and discursive communication between different Parties and non-Party stakeholders in multimodal ways and on multiple platforms. To this end, it draws on discourses such as the UN speeches, UN documents, EU green deal policy, official documents submitted by African countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and news reports in China and Australia. In these studies, diverse social and linguistic concepts were utilized and revisited to better inform the use of linguistic and/or visual symbols in different types of public discourse. This Special Issue aims to take the field a step further by showing the importance of carrying out more international research to expand our knowledge of the global, regional, and local discourse and ideologies that shape what we come to know and understand as climate change and how it is to be addressed. We envisage it will bring significant theoretical, methodological, and empirical insights into the relations between language use, discursive practice, and social practice.

Advisory opinions on climate change: Some preliminary questions

AbstractThe recent requests for advisory opinions from the International Court of Justice, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea and the Inter‐American Court of Human Rights are understandable, given the slow pace of the climate change negotiations. But are they a good idea? Will an advisory opinion by an international tribunal be likely to strengthen the international response to climate change and, if so, in what ways? Will it complement or compete with the United Nations climate change negotiations? What are the risks, both to the negotiations and to the court's own legitimacy, and do the potential benefits of an advisory opinion justify these risks? To what extent should international climate change law be developed through negotiations or adjudication, by States or by courts? Before jumping on the advisory opinion bandwagon, this article poses some questions to consider.

Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change summit negotiations from the climate governance perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions to the world since 2020, with over 647 million confirmed cases and 6.7 million reported deaths as of January 2023. Despite its far-reaching impact, the effects of COVID-19 on the progress of global climate change negotiations have yet to be thoroughly evaluated. This discussion paper conducts an examination of COVID-19's impact on climate change actions at global, national, and local levels through a comprehensive review of existing literature. This analysis reveals that the pandemic has resulted in delays in implementing climate policies and altered priorities from climate action to the pandemic response. Despite these setbacks, the pandemic has also presented opportunities for accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy. The interplay between these outcomes and the different levels of governance will play a crucial role in determining the success or failure of future climate change negotiations.

The Mutability of Uniform

The Mutability of Uniform

A short history of the successes and failures of the international climate change negotiations.

The last 35 years have been a period of intense and continuous international negotiations to deal with climate change. During the same period of time humanity has doubled the amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. There has, however, been progress and some notable successes in the negotiations. In 2015, at COP21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 196 countries adopted the Paris Agreement stating that they would limit global temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and would pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The first review of the Paris Agreement was at COP26 in Glasgow with many countries pledging to go to net zero emissions by the middle of the century. But currently these pledges, if fulfilled, will only limit the global average temperature to between 2.4°C and 2.8°C. At COP27 in Egypt the core agreements from the Glasgow Climate Pact were maintained and countries finally agreed to set up a loss and damage facility - although details of who will provide the finance and who can claim are still be to be worked out. This article reviews the key moments in the history of international climate change negotiations and discusses what the key objectives are for future COP meetings.

What’s on the agenda? UN climate change negotiation agendas since 1995

ABSTRACT Our understanding of climate change has expanded to include issues beyond reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, we do not have a sound empirical understanding of how negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations have evolved to address an increasingly wide range of issues relevant to climate change. To understand what the climate talks have focused on and how the volume of work has changed, the authors create a Climate Negotiations Database that categorizes negotiation agenda items starting from the first Conference of the Parties (COP) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1995. Overall, the volume of work in the negotiations is shown to have steadily increased over time but it is not necessarily tied to the negotiation of new rules enshrined in major agreements or outcomes. While the negotiations have broadened to include a wider range of issues, we demonstrate that transparency and mitigation matters traditionally dominate the agendas. This finding lends support to the call for greater balance among issues. Transparency and mitigation show different patterns. While mitigation issues are more negotiations-intensive, and often about markets, the transparency discussions tend to be more implementation-focused. The database provides an empirical base for further research on various aspects of global climate governance.