Climate Change In Nepal Research Articles

Climate change vulnerability of Asia’s most iconic megaherbivore: greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis)

Climate change is an emerging threat for biodiversity conservation. It has already started impacting species assemblages and ecosystem dynamics. The greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) is an iconic and globally threatened megaherbivore. Once widespread across the northern part of the Indian subcontinent, there were fewer than 500 rhinoceros during the early 1960s, confined to isolated patches of suitable habitats in the southern part of Nepal and northern foothills of India, including Brahmaputra floodplains. Following both governments’ successful conservation strategies, the species has been recovering, and its global population at present is over 3500. However, the likely impacts of climate change has not been adequately incorporated into conservation plans for the species and may challenge this success. In this study, we developed a set of 21 vulnerability indicators and assessed the vulnerability of rhinoceros to climate change in Nepal through a review of literature, site observations of prime rhinoceros habitat, key informant interviews, a two-day stakeholders’ consultation workshop, and expert elucidation. Our findings suggest that rhinoceros in Nepal is likely to be ‘moderately vulnerable’ to the impacts of climate change, mainly due to (1) the likelihood of invasive plant species and severe floods in its prime habitat ‘Chitwan National Park’, and (2) fragmented habitat, small population size, droughts and forest fires in Bardia and Shuklaphanta National Parks. We further identified and recommended adaptation measures intended to enhance the resilience of rhinoceros to these likely threats.

A Review of Studies on Climate Change in Nepal

Climate change is now a global issue and its impact on different sectors like water sources, biodiversity, health, livestock, and livelihood are already seen. Climate change is accelerating due to the emission of greenhouse gases produced by anthropogenic activities. Though Nepal’s contribution to greenhouse gases is negligible compared to developed countries, its risk to climate change is very high. Thus, it extremely important to understand the current scenario of climate change of Nepal. Hence, this article reviews and compares the published articles which studies the pattern and trend of climate change of the time period of at least 30 years. Most of the article shows increasing trend of temperature. According to the recent study, maximum temperature was found to be increasing by 0.05°C/year and minimum temperature was found to increase by 0.03°C/year. Though, the trend of precipitation in Nepal is not clear like temperature most of the studies have concluded increasing in monsoon precipitation in coming years.

Perception to Adaptation of Climate Change in Nepal: An Empirical Analysis Using Multivariate Probit Model

This study assessed farmers’ perception of climate change, estimated the determinants of, and evaluated the relationship among adaptation practices using the multivariate probit model. A survey in 300 agricultural households was carried out covering 10 sample districts considering five agro-ecological zones and a vulnerability index. Four adaptation choices (change in planting date, crop variety, crop type and investment in irrigation) were deemed as outcome variables and socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, farm-level and perceptions variables were deployed as explanatory variables. Their marginal effects were determined for three climatic variables—temperature, precipitation and drought. Age, gender and education of head of household, credit access, farm area, rain-fed farming and tenure, are found to be more influential compared to other factors. All four adaptation-options are found to be complimentary to each other. Importantly, the intensity of impact of dependent variables in different models, and for available adaptation-options, are found to be unequal. Therefore, policy options and support facilities should be devised according to climatic variables and adaptation options to achieve superior results.

Perceptions of Local Environmental Issues and the Relevance of Climate Change in Nepal's Terai: Perspectives From Two Communities.

The direct and indirect impacts of global climate change entail serious consequences for global biophysical and social systems, including the health, well-being and sustainability of communities. These impacts are especially serious for vulnerable groups in economically developing societies. While climate change is a global phenomenon, it is at the local level that impacts are most felt, and from where responses to climate change are enacted. It is increasingly urgent that communities possess the capacity to respond to climate change, now and in the future. Community representations of climate-relevant issues are critical to underpinning responses. Environmental representations do not directly reflect actual physical conditions but are interpreted through social and cultural layers of understanding that shape environmental issues. This paper investigates environmental and climate-relevant perceptions within two communities in the Terai region of Nepal; the city of Bharatpur and the village of Kumroj in Chitwan Province. Following mixed findings on levels of climate change awareness in Nepal, we set out to explore perspectives on the environment and climate change awareness by conducting 30 qualitative interviews with local people. The study found that issues linked to sanitation and cleanliness were most important in both communities, while reports of temperature and weather changes were less common and typically linked to local causes rather than climate change. Imagined futures were also closely related to current environmental issues affecting communities and did not discuss climate change, though temperature and weather changes were anticipated. However, when talk of climate change was deliberately elicited, participants displayed their awareness, though this was rarely linked to local conditions. We conclude that, in light of other pressing local issues, climate change is yet to penetrate the environmental representations of some communities and there is a need to address the disconnect between local issues and global climate change. Making climate change relevant at the local level by connecting to salient local issues and co-benefits comprises an important step in bridging the gap between more global awareness and its relevance more locally, particularly for communities at risk.

Climate change in Nepal: a comprehensive analysis of instrumental data and people’s perceptions

Despite broad scientific consensus on climate change, public views may not always correspond with scientific findings. Understanding public perceptions of climate change is thus crucial to both identifying problems and delivering solutions. Investigations of climate change that integrate instrumental records and people’s perceptions in the Himalayas are scarce and fragmentary compared to other regions of the world. We analyzed nationally representative data (n = 5060) of local peoples’ perception of climate change in Nepal, and assessed annual and seasonal trends of temperature and precipitation, onsets of seasons, and trends of climate extremes, based on gridded climate datasets. We firstly used quantitative and spatial techniques to compare local perceptions and the instrumentally observed trends of climate variables. We then examined the possible association of demographic variables, place attachment, regional differences, and prior understanding of climate change with the accuracy of people’s perceptions. Instrumental evidence showed consistent warming, increasing hot days and nights, and increasing annual precipitation, wet spells, heavy precipitation and decreasing dry spells in Nepal. Our results indicate that locals accurately perceived the shifts in temperature but their perceptions of precipitation change did not converge with the instrumental records. We suggest that, in future as exposure to changes in weather, particularly extreme events, continues, people may become more likely to detect change which corresponds with observed trends. With some new methodological insights gained through integrating community perceptions with observed climate data, the results of this study provides valuable information to support policies to reduce climate-related risk and enhance climate change adaptation.

Perception to Adaptation of Climate Change in Nepal: An Empirical Analysis Using Multivariate Probit Model

This study assessed farmers’ perception of climate change, estimated the determinants of, and evaluated the relationship among adaptation practices using the multivariate probit model. A survey in 300 agricultural households was carried out covering 10 sample districts considering five agro-ecological zones and a vulnerability index. Four adaptation choices (change in planting date, crop variety, crop type and investment in irrigation) were deemed as outcome variables and socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, farm-level and perceptions variables were deployed as explanatory variables. Their marginal effects were determined for three climatic variables—temperature, precipitation and drought. Age, gender and education of head of household, credit access, farm area, rain-fed farming and tenure, are found to be more influential compared to other factors. All four adaptation-options are found to be complimentary to each other. Importantly, the intensity of impact of dependent variables in different models, and for available adaptation-options, are found to be unequal. Therefore, policy options and support facilities should be devised according to climatic variables and adaptation options to achieve superior results.

The socioenvironmental state: Political authority, subjects, and transformative socionatural change in an uncertain world

The ‘socioenvironmental state’ conceptualisation probes how contested, shifting, emergent boundaries of the state contain the possibilities for transformative change in the Anthropocene. The paper outlines a research programme capable of addressing the questions: who becomes authorised to govern change, who is required to make changes on the ground, and what subjectivities and pathways emerge in the context of rapid rate change? The conceptualisation unpacks three boundaries: state–society, its socionatural emergence, and the relationships between boundary-making and belonging to address these questions and better account for the successes and failures of attempts at governing an uncertain, rapidly changing world. In this analysis, ‘environmental change’ arises as a stochastic, relational becoming – ecologies and resources are emergent with the social-politics of governing them – suggesting that more analytical attention is required on how ‘environmental challenges’ and their ‘drivers of change’ are conceived and delimited. Together, these theoretical insights help reveal the way that the micro-politics of local resource use and the contradictory acceptance and refusals of authority and subjection are not only products of, but also productive of, larger scale political economies, socionatures, governance, and political struggles. The aim is to contribute towards a re-imagination of political authority that begins to capture the complex interplay between our attempts at governing a changing world and the inadvertent authorisations, inclusions, and exclusions that we produce in those efforts. The paper partially illustrates the conceptual ideas with an account of forestry and climate change in Nepal. In a context wherein programmes to govern resources have become of global concern, probing the implications of these points is crucial. It is not only that states govern resources with particular consequences for ‘environmental change’ or ‘sustainability’, but also that the act of governing resources (re)produces the socioenvironmental boundaries of the state with profound implications for how future transformations can unfold.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of NDVI in Response to Climate Change and the Implication for Carbon Dynamics in Nepal

Nepal is a country of contrast, with varying altitude, climate and vegetation from the top of high mountains to the tropical forest in low lands. The terrestrial vegetation has rapidly been altered by climate change in Nepal. The spatial and temporal evolution of vegetation and its linkage to climatic variables were analyzed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. A linear regression model and Sen’s slope method were used to estimate NDVI trends and the Pearson correlation between NDVI and climatic variable, i.e., temperature and precipitation were calculated to identify the role of climate in vegetation changes. The carbon dynamics were also measured using a biomass carbon density estimation model. Results showed that NDVI experienced an overall increasing trend in Nepal from 1982–2015. The NDVI significantly increased at the rate of 0.0008 year−1 (p < 0.05) with seasonal variation of 0.0004 year−1, p > 0.05; 0.0007 year−1, p < 0.05; 0.0008 year−1, p < 0.05 and 0.0007 year−1, p > 0.05 in winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, respectively. The NDVI relative change ratio (RCR) was 6.29% during last 34 years in Nepal. The correlation between NDVI and temperature was significantly positive (r = 0.36, p = 0.03), but there was a negative correlation with precipitation (r = −0.21, p = 0.28). Altogether, 82.20% of the study areas showed a positive correlation with temperature in which 34.97% was significant and 69.23% of the area had a negative correlation (16.35% significant, p < 0.05) with precipitation. In addition, NDVI-based carbon estimation showed that Nepal’s forest total carbon stock is 685.45 × 106 t C (i.e., an average of 115.392 t C/ha) with an annual carbon sequestration rate of 0.10 t C/ha from 1982–2015. The results suggest that NDVI variation is more sensitive to temperature than precipitation and it is valuable to measure carbon dynamics in Nepal.

Effects of climate change in Nepal

No abstract available.

Seasonal Migration and Livelihood Resilience in the Face of Climate Change in Nepal

Migration for work remains a livelihood strategy in subsistence farming communities globally, especially in view of unprecedented environmental change. Farmers in the high Himalaya migrate during the winter, when farming activities are reduced. This study examined the drivers of seasonal migration in the context of climate change and migration's role in food security and livelihood resilience in the district of Humla, Nepal. Focus group discussions and a household socioeconomic survey were conducted. The results suggest that rather than climate change impacts, structural poverty is the root cause of migration, such that men from poor households with small landholdings and high food insecurity, mainly belonging to low-caste groups, migrate for work during the winter. Focus group participants also presented a clear perception of climate variability and change and their negative impacts on crop production. In this context, the poorest households find cultivating their own land risky. Moreover, the traditional practice of sharecropping, which helped them reduce food shortages, has also become less profitable. Therefore, more households are likely to participate in seasonal migration in the context of climate change, and those already migrating are likely to do so for longer time periods. Currently, such migrants take up low-paying unskilled wage work, mainly in towns and cities in Uttarakhand, India, which enable them to make only modest savings, hardly enough to repay the debt their family has incurred during food shortages. Even in the future, these farmers are likely to be limited to the same migration pattern, because they lack the social ties, education, and financial capital needed to fulfill the administrative and monetary requirements for more economically promising long-term overseas migration. Thus, it is unlikely that migration will make a significant contribution to building livelihood resilience in the context of climate change in remote Himalayan farming communities.

The Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Nepal: Current Knowledge, Lacunae, and Opportunities

Nepal has an extreme altitudinal range from 60–8850 m with heterogeneous topography and distinct climatic zones. The country is considered a biodiversity hotspot, with nearly a quarter of the land area located in protected areas. Nepal and the surrounding Himalayan region are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their abrupt ecological and climatic transitions. Tens of millions of people rely on the region’s ecosystem services, and observed and modeled warming trends predict increased climate extremes in the Himalayas. To study the ecological impacts of climate change in Nepal and inform adaptation planning, we review the literature on past, present, and predicted future climatic changes and their impacts on ecological diversity in Nepal. We found few studies focusing on organisms, while research on species and communities was more common. Most studies document or predict species range shifts and changes in community composition. Results of these few investigations highlight major lacunae in research regarding the effects of changing climate on species comprising the Himalayan biota. Further empirical work is needed at all levels of biological organization to build on information regarding direct ecological impacts of climatic changes in the region. Countries face an ever-increasing threat of climate change, and Nepal has strong physiographic, elevational, and climatic gradients that could provide a useful model for studying the effects of climate change on a mountainous, and highly biodiverse, area.

Water as “Time-Substance”: The Hydrosocialities of Climate Change in Nepal

This article develops a novel theoretical framework to explain how water's situatedness relates to its political agency. Recent posthuman scholarship emphasizes these qualities but, surprisingly, no sustained analysis has been undertaken of this interrelation. Here we do so by theorizing water as a “time-substance” to reposition human hydrological struggles (including those exacerbated by climate change) around the topologies and temporalities rather than the spatialities of water. This innovative approach opens up new areas of geographical enquiry based on hydrosocial forms, hydrosocial transformations, and hydrosocial information (collectively referred to here as hydrosocialities). We contend that hydrosocialities enable the tracing of human–water relations that transcend times and scales and the matricial categories of subject and object to overcome the situated–agential binary of water. Drawing on two years of fieldwork in Mustang, Nepal, this conceptual framework is deployed to examine hydrosocialities in two remote mountain communities. We show hydrosocialities that comprise diverse water knowledge practices constituted from multiple points of proximity between the social and the hydrological in space and time. In turn, this conceptual framework underscores the importance of boundary objects in mediating water's situated–agential qualities. The article concludes that consequently boundary objects can play a crucial role in producing new practical hydrosocial politics of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Agriculture and Food Security under Climate Change in Nepal

Agriculture and Food Security under Climate Change in Nepal

High-resolution spatial assessment of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal

Current, spatially explicit, and high-resolution assessments of population vulnerability to climate change and variability in developing countries can be difficult to create due to lack of data or financial and technical capacity constraints. We propose a comparative, multiple-approach framework to assess the spatial variation of population vulnerability to climatic changes using several high-resolution variables related to climate, topography, and socioeconomic conditions with an objective to detect the spatial variability of climate vulnerability in Nepal. Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change due to frequent climatic hazards and poor socio-economic capacity. We used a climate vulnerability index (CVI) approach to derive climate vulnerability maps at the one-kilometer resolution and test an additive and a principal components-based composite method of data aggregation. In this work, we attempt to answer three questions. 1) How do different methods of assessment inform the spatial variation of the climate vulnerability in Nepal? 2) How do different variables interact to shape climate vulnerability in Nepal? 3) What proportions of the population in Nepal are vulnerable to climatic disasters and why? Our analysis uncovered significant spatial variations in population vulnerability to climate change across Nepal, with the highest vulnerability being experienced by the High Mountain region followed by the regions in the lower elevations. We find that although the lack of adaptive capacity is the biggest cause of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal, a resilient community is shaped by both biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics. By performing an iterative sensitivity analysis of our thirteen variables both at the aggregate level (nationally) as well as at the more disaggregated (physiographic region) level, we contribute to identifying important, multi-scalar driving factors for vulnerability that can be employed as leverage points for lowering vulnerability at different scales. After performing analyses at multiple regions, we conclude that region-specific variable selection is needed for more detailed assessments and in order to prioritize adaptation strategies at scales that go beyond the hierarchy of administrative divisions.

A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal

The impact of climate change on agriculture has been one of the most discussed topics in the literature on climate change. Multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have frequently been used to examine the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, these studies do not focus on country-specific issues related to the link between climate change and agriculture. This paper aims to address this gap by investigating the economy-wide impacts of climate change on Nepalese agriculture. Nepal makes an interesting case study as it has one of the most vulnerable agricultural economies in South Asia. This paper develops a comparative static multi-household CGE model to trace the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in Nepal. The results suggest that climate change has a significant negative impact on the overall Nepalese economy due to the induced loss of agricultural productivity. The results further reveal that rural households in Nepal, whose livelihoods primarily depend on subsistence farming, will face additional climate change–induced stresses due to already overstrained poverty and a weak social welfare system. The results indicate an urgent need to mainstream adaptation strategies to lessen the negative impacts of any climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal.

Statistical Modeling of Health Effects on Climate-Sensitive Variables and Assessment of Environmental Burden of Diseases Attributable to Climate Change in Nepal

An ecological time-series study is conducted to quantify health-effect coefficients associated with climate-sensitive variables namely temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed and estimate environmental burden of diseases attributed to temperature as the main climatic variable together with climate change in Nepal. The study is based upon daily data of climate-sensitive variables and hospitalizations collected for 5 years between 2009 and 2014. Generalized linear model is used to estimate health-effect coefficients accounting distributed lag effects. Results show 3.08%, 10.14%, and 3.27% rise in water-borne, vector-borne, and renal disease hospitalizations, respectively, and 3.67% rise in water- and vector-borne disease deaths per 1 °C rise in average temperature. Similarly, 2.45% and 1.44% rise in heart disease hospitalization and all-cause mortality, respectively per 1 °C rise in absolute difference of average temperature with its overall average (20 °C). The computed attributable fractions are 0.3759, 0.6696, 0.2909, and 0.1024 for water-borne, vector-borne, renal, and heart disease hospitalizations, respectively, and 0.0607 and 0.4335 for all-cause mortality and disease-specific mortality of water- and vector-borne diseases, respectively. The percent change in attributable burdens due to climate change are found to be 4.32%, 4.64%, 7.20%, and −2.29% for water-borne, vector-borne, renal, and heart disease hospitalizations, respectively, and −1.39% and 6.55% for all-cause deaths and water-borne and vector-borne disease deaths, respectively. In conclusion, climate-sensitive variables have significant effects on many major health burdens in Nepal. In the context of changing climatic scenarios around the world including that of Nepal, such changes are bound to affect the health burden of Nepalese people.

Health-sector responses to address the impacts of climate change in Nepal.

Nepal is highly vulnerable to global climate change, despite its negligible emission of global greenhouse gases. The vulnerable climate-sensitive sectors identified in Nepal's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change 2010 include agriculture, forestry, water, energy, public health, urbanization and infrastructure, and climate-induced disasters. In addition, analyses carried out as part of the NAPA process have indicated that the impacts of climate change in Nepal are not gender neutral. Vector-borne diseases, diarrhoeal diseases including cholera, malnutrition, cardiorespiratory diseases, psychological stress, and health effects and injuries related to extreme weather are major climate-sensitive health risks in the country. In recent years, research has been done in Nepal in order to understand the changing epidemiology of diseases and generate evidence for decision-making. Based on this evidence, the experience of programme managers, and regular surveillance data, the Government of Nepal has mainstreamed issues related to climate change in development plans, policies and programmes. In particular, the Government of Nepal has addressed climate-sensitive health risks. In addition to the NAPA report, several policy documents have been launched, including the Climate Change Policy 2011; the Nepal Health Sector Programme - Implementation Plan II (NHSP-IP 2) 2010-2015; the National Health Policy 2014; the National Health Sector Strategy 2015-2020 and its implementation plan (2016-2021); and the Health National Adaptation Plan (H-NAP): climate change and health strategy and action plan (2016-2020). However, the translation of these policies and plans of action into tangible action on the ground is still in its infancy in Nepal. Despite this, the health sector's response to addressing the impact of climate change in Nepal may be taken as a good example for other low- and middle-income countries.

A Study of Climate Variability and Socioeconomic Impact on Tourism Industry of Nepal

<p><em>In Nepal, tourism is the second largest industry after agriculture. Furthermore, Nepal offers numerous opportunities for adventurous outdoor recreation, especially in the Himalayas, and attracts tourists from all over the World. However, future prosperity of Nepal’s tourism industry might be affected by a changing climate and a socioeconomic environment. A log-level regression model is employed to estimate the impact of climatic and socioeconomic factors on the number of international tourists visiting Nepal. Climatic estimates indicated that an increase in temperature did not have a significant impact on the numbers of international tourist arrival. Results show that the number of international tourists visiting Nepal was positively associated with GDP and population growth, inflation rate, and an exchange rate. These results help policy makers for facilitating growth of tourism industry and its adaptability to climate change in Nepal. </em></p><p><em><br /></em></p>

FNEP: Finnish-Nepalese Project for improving the meteorological readiness in Nepal

The Finnish Nepalese Project (FNEP) is a project aimed for the development of infrastructure, education and preparedness to better respond to the increased risks related to the weather-related natural disasters by climate change in Nepal. The project duration was 2010-2012, and the partners were the Finnish Meteorological Institute and the Government of Nepal, Ministry of Environment and Science, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. The project is financed by the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This paper introduces the concept and main results of the project.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) 2012, p.72-76

Ecosystem-based Adaptation Planning in the Panchase Mountain Ecological Region

As part of numerous efforts on adapting to climate change in Nepal, an approach of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is being demonstrated in the Panchase Mountain Ecological Region (PMER). Partners under the project entitled Ecosystem-based Adaptation in Mountain Ecosystems in Nepal have been implementing activities to reduce vulnerability of the PMER to climate change and enhance resilient capacity of communities and ecosystems in the region to cope with adverse impacts of climate change already being witnessed. This article places focus on the process of EbA planning and preliminary lessons learned through the project activities in particular at local and ecological level. Reflection and suggestion on EbA planning presented in the article is expected to help all stakeholders in the Himalayan region and beyond design and implement future climate change adaptation activities to be more effective and efficient while empowering local communities and ensuring social, economic and environmental sustainability. HYDRO Nepal JournalJournal of Water, Energy and EnvironmentIssue: 17, July 2015