Climate Change In Central Asia Research Articles

Extreme precipitation and temperature indices under future climate change in central Asia based on CORDEX-CORE

AbstractThe present study analyzes the projected changes of extreme climate indices over Central Asia using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) - Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE). The extreme indices are based on precipitation and temperature and are inspected for present (1981–2005) and future periods - near- (2031–2055) and far-future (2071–2095) - to assess the long-term climate change under the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. Projected changes are analyzed for three different model ensembles. These ensembles are based on CORDEX-Central Asia (ENS_CAS, four ensemble members) and CORDEX-East Asia (ENS_EAS, six ensemble members), and a combination of both (ENS, ten ensemble members) for our study area centered over high mountain Asia, called Central East Asia (CEAS). For precipitation indices, an increase of consecutive dry days (CDD) in ENS_EAS and a slight to moderate decrease in northern parts in ENS_CAS during near-future is observed. Consecutive wet days (CWD), very heavy precipitation events (R20mm), maximum one-day precipitation (RX1day), and very wet days (R95p) are projected to increase in most areas. All indices show a further intensification towards the end of the century over large parts of the domain, e.g., + 7.8% / +5.6 days for CDD, + 96.6% / +0.26 days for R20mm, and + 19.7% for RX1day as median of ENS over CEAS. For temperature indices, the ensembles project a strong increase over the high mountain regions and southern parts for consecutive summer days (CSU, + 108.5% / +38.3 days), heat wave duration index (HWDI, + 1379.1% / +91.37 days), and the percentage of very hot days (TX90p, + 391.1% / +34.54 days). Accordingly, the number of consecutive frost days (CFD, -43.7% / -25.2 days) and the percentage of very cold days (TX10p, -83.4% / -8.13 days) are projected to decrease. The first-time usage of CORDEX-CORE and the larger ensemble size by considering simulations from overlapping domains increase the robustness of the findings from earlier studies. However, some discrepancies in the projected changes prevail among the different RCMs being part of the two CORDEX-domains and in specific landscapes like complex mountainous or lake areas. These uncertainties may be tackled by further model development with improved land-surface processes and potentially higher spatial resolution.

Book Review: Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition, and Climate Policy

Book Review: Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition, and Climate Policy

Спутниковые оценки вариаций увлажненности внутреннего Тянь-Шаня в период 1982–2022 гг. на примере хребта Ат-Баши (Киргизия)

Introduction. Western atmospheric jet streams carry moisture over the Northern Tian Shan ridges into the Inner Tian Shan. Long-term weather changes in the Inner Tian Shan diagnose climatic fluctuations in atmospheric moisture transport. This is of considerable interest for understanding the direction of modern climate change in Central Asia. Materials. The area of the At-Bashi Ridge (2700 км2) in Inner Tian Shan, including a large high-altitude Lake Chatyr-Kul (170 km2, 3530 m), were considered. The ridge, with a peak of 4786 m, has a length of 135 km and is characterized by an Alpine type of relief. The initial information related to the period 1982-2022. The list of data used included: FLDASSnowDepth_inst; JRC Monthly Water History, v1.4; ECMWF/ERA5_LAND/MONTHLY (precipitation); NOAA/NCEP_DOE_RE2 (cloud fraction). Also, to diagnose the mountain glaciation state of the At-Bashi Ridge, three satellite images of sub meter resolution dated 09/21/2002, 07/27/2013 and 09/13/2021 were used. The purpose of the work. The aim of the research was to study the humidity regime of the At-Bashi Ridge area during 1982-2022. Research methodology. The change in the average annual snow depth in the test area in the period 1982-2022 was analyzed, as well as the degree of correlation of this parameter with other weather characteristics.Fischer’s criterion acted as a quantitative basis for estimates. Satellite images of sub meter resolution were used to analyze long–term changes in the area of rock outcrops from ice on the slopes of glacial chambers, which diagnoses the glacier state (degradation – stability – growth). Satellite data recorded the process of mountain glaciation growth above the height of 4000 m in the period between 2002–2013. Research results. In order of increasing correlation (F-criterion), with the snowiness of the cold period (October-May) of the At-Bashi Ridge area, the parameters considered were arranged as follows (F=2.11; α=0.01): cloud fraction, F= 3.02; precipitation, F=12.42; the Lake Chatyr-Kul area, F= 12.53; the balance of snow deposits between the windward (north-western) and leeward (south-eastern) At-Bashi Ridge slopes, F= 22.01. According to satellite data, the growth of mountain glaciation in the zone with an altitude above 4000 m in the period 2002-2013 was recorded. Discussion. The At-Bashi Ridge area has three different periods in terms of humidity: dry in 1982-1999 with an average annual snow depth of 0.099± 0.051 m; wet in 2000-2012; 0.192± 0.074 m; and moderately humid in 2013-2022; 0.133± 0.058 m. Ultra-high-resolution satellite images recorded the growth of the mountain glaciation of the At-Bashi Ridge at altitudes of more than 4000 m in the period from 2002 to 2013. This confirms the actual existence of the wet period of 2001-2012. Conclusion. Thus, the current trend of humidity changes of the At-Bashi Ridge does not have an unambiguous direction, but in general, for the period 1982-2022, it is aimed at a certain increase in the snow content in mountains and the area of the Lake Chatyr-Kul. Apparently, the current climate change is accompanied by an increase in the ability of western atmospheric jet fluxes to transfer moisture over the front Northern Tian Shan ranges into the Inner and Central Tian Shan ridges, which may even be accompanied by an increase in the mountain glaciation of these territories in certain periods of time.

Central Asia: Exploring Insights on Gender Considerations in Climate Change

More than three decades of independence of Central Asia (CA) countries have been marked by socio-economic, political, and legal reforms. Growing climate change impacts threaten the wellbeing and livelihood of the already vulnerable local population, more than half of which comprises women. In this context, it is essential to adequately include both women’s and men’s needs in multiple efforts taken by national governments to overcome climate change challenges. This paper explores how gender/women considerations have been already addressed in climate change in CA using bibliometric analysis, an expert-driven assessment approach, and a comprehensive analysis of thematically relevant development projects. The findings demonstrated a significant prevalence of grey literature implying much lower interest from academia. The experts outlined the importance of women’s participation and consideration of their experiences, which were different from men’s, in climate change decision making. The comprehensive analysis of the selected development projects revealed the leadership/empowerment domain of climate change–gender interconnections as being mostly addressed. The implications of this paper regarding the current knowledge on the topic related to the CA region are threefold. Firstly, it highlights a strong need for further scientific research that could be implemented through international research initiatives and national institutional programs. Secondly, it calls for increased input from women representation in climate action at all levels. Thirdly, it outlines areas that require stronger cooperation with international donors to mainstream gender/women considerations among a wide range of stakeholders engaged in climate change and its related fields. Overall, the paper lays a basis for further steps towards advancing gender-sensitive and -responsive approaches in CA, particularly in those climate-change-related areas that are often perceived as being gender-neutral.

Measuring the Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in Central Asia

Climate change poses a formidable threat to the Central Asian region, exacerbating preexisting vulnerabilities and necessitating enhanced adaptation efforts. The economic and environmental costs of these changing climatic conditions are substantial, compelling governments to bolster their adaptive capacity. In this study, we employ the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adaptation framework and high-quality data to quantitatively measure the capacities of the Central Asian countries to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Our primary objective is to compare the adaptation progress in the Central Asian countries with that of countries outside the region. The results of our analysis indicate that, despite announced adaptation strategies, Central Asia lags behind in this critical area. Several factors contribute to the low scores for adaptation in the region, including heavy reliance on fossil fuels, resource-intensive economies, and limited innovation capacity. This deficiency in adaptive readiness leaves the Central Asian countries ill-prepared for the impending consequences of climate change. Urgent action is imperative for policymakers to address this disparity, formulate effective adaptation strategies, and safeguard the region’s future resilience.

Divergent trends in grassland degradation and desertification under land use and climate change in Central Asia from 2000 to 2020

Grassland degradation (within-state change) and desertification (state conversion from grasslands to deserts) are different states in the complex dynamic process of grassland deterioration. However, the dynamics and associated drivers of the two states have been rarely examined separately, which is critical for early warning and conservation policy making. Here, the grassland degradation and desertification in Central Asia (CA) were studied due to their evident vulnerability to climate extremes and human activities. We performed a two-step approach to identify the critical state zones first (i.e., grasslands, deserts, and the desertification zones) and then assess the vegetation dynamics within each zone. Finally, we quantified the roles of CO2 fertilization effect, climate change, climate variability, land use (LU), and anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on the vegetation dynamics in different state zones. The results showed that the areas of grasslands and sparse vegetation regions (including deserts and desertification zones) were stable from 2000 to 2020, but the trends of vegetation greenness were divergent with a reduction in grasslands and an increase in sparse vegetation regions. Furthermore, climate change and climate variability were the main driving force affecting grassland degradation in CA. Yet the vegetation greening in the desertification and desert zones was mainly driven by the rising CO2 and LU. Moreover, ACC degraded 20.63% of grasslands and sparsely vegetated lands in CA on the baseline of 2000. The results highlighted the risks of grassland degradation in CA. This study proposed a methodology to examine grassland degradation and desertification in detail and quantify the associated driving factors (especially ACC) at the pixel scale, which provided some insights on developing region-precise strategies for grassland conservation in CA and other drylands.

Using Open Foris Collect Earth in Kyrgyzstan to support greenhouse gas inventory in the land use, land use change, and forestry sector.

The Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzstan) is one of the countries most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in Central Asia. The land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector is critical in climate change mitigation in Kyrgyzstan and is integral to national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. However, consistent, complete, and updated activity data is required for the LULUCF sector to develop a transparent GHG inventory. Collect Earth (CE), developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), is a free, user-friendly, and open-source tool for collecting activity data for the LULUCF sector. CE assists countries in developing GHG inventories by providing consistent and complete land representation. This article reports an estimate of land use and land-use change dynamics in Kyrgyzstan, based on analyzing 13,414 1-hectare (ha) sampling units through an augmented visual interpretation approach using satellite imagery at the very high spatial and temporal resolution available through the Google Earth platform. The results show that in 2019, forests covered 1.36 million ha or 6.83% of the total land with a 6.23% uncertainty. This estimate was 5 to 16% higher than previous estimates, detecting an additional 63,024 to 188,164ha of forestland that had not been reported previously. The new estimates suggest an average increase of 10.4% in the current forestlands of Kyrgyzstan.

Two Millennia of Climate History for the Russian Altai: Integrated Reconstruction from Lake Sediment Data

Abstract—A continuous history of annual air temperatures in the Russian Altai for the past 2000 years has been reconstructed for the first time by integrating climate archives stored in the bottom sediments of four lakes in Gorny Altai (Teletskoye, Kucherla, Lower Multa, and Middle Multa). The integrated chronology comprises all known climate events of the two millennia time span: Roman warm epoch (~200 to 500 AD), Dark Age cold epoch (~500 to 750 AD), medieval warming (~750 to 1300 AD), and Little Ice Age (~1300 to 1850 AD). The events distinguished in the integrated climate reconstruction agree perfectly in number and time with the events reconstructed from other climate proxies for the Altai and adjacent areas of West Siberia, Tyva, and West Mongolia. Therefore, the temperature patterns represent a common course of the 2000-year climate evolution over a large part of Central Asia. Similar synchronicity is observed with the available quantitative climate reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere and its different regions. It means that the climate change in Central Asia over the past two millennia has followed the general global scenario.

Revised magnetostratigraphy of the Linxia Basin in the northeast Tibetan Plateau, constrained by micromammalian fossils

The Linxia Basin along the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau has drawn enormous attention due to its rich mammalian fossils and great potential for exploring regional tectonics, paleoenvironmental history, and bio-evolution. However, the geochronology of the sedimentary sequences is in great dispute owing to uncertain lithostratigraphic correlation and poorly calibrated magnetostratigraphy. From 2017 to 2021, we carried out lithostratigraphic correlation of the strata from the southern part of the basin, which is rich in fossils, to the Maogou section in the central basin, and established a solid intra-basinal lithostratigraphic framework with accurate fossil locations. Then, high-resolution magnetostratigraphic investigations were performed on the Maogou section, which comprises, from oldest to youngest, the Jiaozigou, Shangzhuang, Dongxiang, Liushu/Hujialiang, and “Liushu” formations. Magnetostratigraphic results show that the Maogou sedimentary sequence (from Jiaozigou to Liushu/Hujialiang formations) spans from chron C10r to chron C5r.2n, yielding an age of 29–11.6 Ma, with constraints from four mammalian assemblage levels. The revised magnetostratigraphy indicates that the Jiaozigou Formation corresponds to chrons C6Cn.3n–C10r (∼23–29 Ma), with Paraceratherium fauna from the lower Jiaozigou Formation being determined as ∼29 Ma, and that the Hujialiang Formation, containing Platybelodon fauna, corresponds to chrons C5r.2n–C5Ar.2r (∼11.6–12.8 Ma). The revised magnetostratigraphy of the Maogou section has significantly refined the chronology of the Linxia Basin sedimentary sequences and its associated mammalian evolution, tectonism, and climate change in Central Asia.

CLIMATE CHANGE: THE ROLE OF SOCIOLOGY

This review article aims to comprehend which themes sociologists should focus on when discussing climate change. To conduct the study, the systematic review method was adopted. By scanning the sources, six major themes were identified based on the codes extracted from the documents that establish a relationship between sociology and climate change. This is followed by a discussion of reflections on these themes among Central Asian countries. The final part of the paper presents various academic and action-oriented suggestions to Central Asian academicians about the sociological context of climate change. It seems necessary to increase sociological studies and academic activities on climate change in Central Asia, given the current inequalities and potential dangers.

Gene Profiling of the Ascorbate Oxidase Family Genes under Osmotic and Cold Stress Reveals the Role of AnAO5 in Cold Adaptation in Ammopiptanthus nanus.

The uplift of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau has led to a drastic change in the climate in Central Asia, from warm and rainy, to dry and less rainfall. Ammopiptanthus nanus, a rare evergreen broad-leaved shrub distributed in the temperate desert region of Central Asia, has survived the drastic climate change in Central Asia caused by the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Ascorbate oxidase (AO) regulates the redox status of the apoplast by catalyzing the oxidation of ascorbate acid to dehydroascorbic acid, and plays a key role in the adaptation of plants to environmental changes. Analyzing the evolution, environmental response, and biological functions of the AO family of A. nanus is helpful for understanding how plant genome evolution responds to climate change in Central Asia. A total of 16 AOs were identified in A. nanus, all of which contained the ascorbate oxidase domain, most of which contained transmembrane domain, and many were predicted to be localized in the apoplast. Segmental duplication and tandem duplication are the main factors driving the gene amplification of the AO gene family in A. nanus. Gene expression analysis based on transcriptome data and fluorescence quantitative PCR, as well as enzyme activity measurements, showed that the expression levels of AO genes and total enzyme activity decreased under short-term osmotic stress and low-temperature stress, but the expression of some AO genes (AnAO5, AnAO13, and AnAO16) and total enzyme activity increased under 7 days of cold stress. AnAO5 and AnAO11 are targeted by miR4415. Further functional studies on AnAO5 showed that AnAO5 protein was localized in the apoplast. The expression of AnAO5 in yeast cells and the transient expression in tobacco enhanced the tolerance of yeast and tobacco to low-temperature stress, and the overexpression of AnAO5 enhanced the tolerance of Arabidopsis seedlings to cold stress. Our research provides important data for understanding the role of AOs in plant adaptation to environmental change.

Recent Response of Vegetation Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change in Central Asia

Quantifying the coupled cycles of carbon and water is essential for exploring the response mechanisms of arid zone terrestrial ecosystems and for formulating a sustainable and practical solution to issues caused by climate change. Water use efficiency (WUE), one of the comprehensive indicators for assessing plant growth suitability, can accurately reflect vegetation’s dynamic response to changing climate patterns. This study assesses the spatio-temporal changes in WUE (ecosystem water use efficiency, soil water use efficiency, and precipitation water use efficiency) from 2000 to 2018 and quantifies their relationship with meteorological elements (precipitation, temperature, drought) and the vegetation index (NDVI). The study finds that the sensitivity of NDVI to WUE is highly consistent with the spatial law of precipitation. The εPre threshold range of different types of WUE is about 200 mm or 1600 mm (low-value valley point) and 300 mm or 1500 mm (high-value peak point), and the εTem threshold value is 3~6 °C (high-value peak point) and 9~12 °C (low-value valley point). The degree to which vegetation WUE is influenced by precipitation is positively correlated with its time lag, whereas the degree to which temperature influences vegetation is negatively correlated. The WUE time lag is very long in hilly regions and is less impacted by drought; it is quite short in plains and deserts, where it is substantially affected by drought. These findings may be of great significance in responding to the severe situation of increasingly scarce water resources and the deterioration of the ecological environment across Central Asia.

Climate Changes in Central Asia as a Prerequisite and Trigger of Plague Microbe (Yersinia pestis) Speciation.

Two physical and climatic factors that were distant and recent prerequisites and a transformation trigger for a clone of the ancestral pseudotuberculous microbe Yersinia pseudotuberculosis O:1b (the causative agent of the Far East scarlet-like fever (FESLF)) into a population of the plague microbe derivative Y. pestis are considered. One remote prerequisite was the aridification of the Central Asian landscapes in the second half of the Cenozoic period and the formation of the Gobi Arid Zone. The arid conditions of Central Asia determined the formation of adaptive species-specific protective behavior in the Tarbagan marmot (Marmota sibirica) when installing the plug of a wintering hole, which later contributed to the massive infection of the animals with FESLF by the aberrant (traumatic, not alimentary) method during hibernation. A recent prerequisite and a real trigger of Y. pestis speciation was the onset of the last maximum (Sartan) ice age in Central Asia at the turn of the Pleistocene and Holocene, 22 000–15 000 years ago. Freezing of the cooling burrows of the Tarbagan marmot caused a behavioral shift in the larval population of the marmot flea Oropsylla silantiewi and the transition to the cold winter–spring months of the year from saprophagy in the nesting litter to hematophagy on the bodies of sleeping animals. Larval scarifications in the oral cavity of sleeping marmots have become the entrance gate for a unique traumatic FESLF infection. The constellation of climatic changes, the heterothermal (and, accordingly, heteroimmune) condition of the family groups of sleeping marmots, and the year-round propagation of marmot fleas in wintering burrows, combined with behavioral shifts in marmots and fleas caused by climatic changes, led to the formation of conditions in the parasitic system M. sibirica–O. silantiewi in which the transformation of the FESLF microbe into the causative agent of the plague occurred according to peripatric speciation. Thus, the climatic changes that happened at different times in the Cenozoic initially led to a shift in behavior of the Tarbagan marmot and, subsequently, to a shift in the behavior of the fleas parasitizing it. Ultimately, the change in the behavior of marmots and fleas caused the transition of the clone(s) of the FESLF causative agent into a new ecological niche and adaptive zone, as well as the transformation into a population(s) of the plague microbe.

A record of Holocene climate changes in central Asia derived from diatom-inferred water-level variations in Lake Kalakuli (Eastern Pamirs, western China)

The unique geographical and climatic settings of the eastern Pamirs make this region sensitive to the Westerlies and global climate change. Holocene fluctuations in water-level of Lake Kalakuli, a proglacial lake located to the northwest of the Muztag Ata glacier, were reconstructed based on diatoms from a ∼15 m long sediment core spanning the last ∼9,900 years. To establish how diatom species distribute in relation to water depth in Lake Kalakuli, a dataset of 45 surface sediment samples was retrieved from different water depth. Statistical analyses such as cluster analysis (TWINSPAN) and redundancy analysis (RDA) were used to demonstrate that the water depth gradient is the main environmental gradient driving the distribution of these diatom assemblages. A diatom-water depth transfer function, was then developed using a weighted averaging partial least squares component 2 model (R2 = 0.89, RMSEP = 1.85 m) and applied to the Holocene diatom sequence from Lake Kalakuli. Due to the large residual errors in the model only the general trends in water level are proposed. Effective moisture increased rapidly during the early Holocene, as the water depth reached a high level from the lowest level within about two thousand years. Only small amplitude fluctuations were recorded during the mid- and late Holocene until the last few hundred years when a marked increase occurred. Changes in summer insolation over the northern hemisphere drove the advances and retreats of the Muztag Ata glacier, which in turn controlled the fluctuations of water level in this lake. The diatom-derived paleoclimatic trend from Lake Kalakuli is consistent with the Holocene climate evolution in the Westerlies-dominated area of Central Asia.

Changes in sizes of mesophyll cells underlies the adaptation of Betula platyphylla Sukacz. leaf to increased climate aridity

Climate changes in Central Asia attract increasing attention to studies in successions, ecosystem transformations and plant adaptation. Functional mechanisms of plant adaptation are related to the changes in leaf structure, first of all, the architecture of carbon-assimilating tissues. We studied leaf mesophyll structure of Betula platyphylla Sukacz. from geographical regions in the southern part of East Siberia and Mongolia with different climate aridity. Birch populations represented a latitudinal range from the middle taiga to the forest-steppe. According our results changes in mesophyll structure occurred along the aridity gradient, which manifested in a significant decrease (by 38-40 %) in cell sizes and an increase in surface area and volume ratio of mesophyll. Such rearrangement of mesophyll structure provides a higher rate of intraleaf diffusion of CO2 and the maintenance of high level of photosynthesis under water deficiency. We concluded that changes in the sizes of carbon-assimilating cells which underlies the restructuring of leaf three-dimensional organization provides regulation of gas exchange, and is a key mechanism for the adaptation of the photosynthetic function of Betula platyphylla to increased aridity of the climate.

Analysis of Atmospheric CO2 and CO at Akedala Atmospheric Background Observation Station, a Regional Station in Northwestern China.

Air samples were collected by flasks and analyzed via a Picarro G2401 gas analyzer for carbon dioxide (CO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) at the Akedala Atmospheric Background Station in Xinjiang, China, from September 2009 to December 2019, to analyze the changes in the characteristics of atmospheric CO2 and CO and determine the sources. The results show that the annual average CO2 concentration showed an increasing trend (growth rate: 1.90 ppm year−1), ranging from 389.80 to 410.43 ppm, and the annual average CO concentration also showed an increasing trend (growth rate: 1.78 ppb year−1), ranging from 136.30 to 189.82 ppb. The CO2 concentration and growth rate were the highest in winter, followed by autumn, spring, and summer. The CO concentration and growth rate were also the highest in winter due to anthropogenic emissions, ecosystem effects, and diffusion conditions. The main trajectories of CO2 and CO determined by the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model were parallel to the Irtysh River valley and then passed through the Old Wind Pass. Furthermore, the main source regions of CO2 and CO at the Akedala Station were eastern Kazakhstan, southern Russia, western Mongolia, and the Xinjiang Tianshan North Slope Economic Zone of China. This study reflects the characteristics of long-term changes in CO2 and CO concentrations at the Akedala station and provides fundamental data for the studies on environmental changes and climate change in Central Asia.

Towards Sustainable Community Development through Renewable Energies in Kyrgyzstan: A Detailed Assessment and Outlook

In rural Kyrgyzstan, the energy need is usually derived from multiple natural energy resources such as firewood, charcoal, agricultural residues, animal dung, and wood branches, which are considered common and predominant practices. Because of the non-sustainable resources and heavy reliance on the environment, Kyrgyzstan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in Central Asia. On the contrary, the great renewable energy potential in Kyrgyzstan is untapped, which could be the most promising solution to ensuring sustainable energy supply in the country. However, because of the lack of scientific knowledge, current energy policies, and the lack of infrastructure, renewable resources are mainly untapped. To exploit the country’s renewable energy potential, there is a need for a systematic diagnosis to develop a strategy to explore renewables in Kyrgyzstan, which is currently missing in the existing literature. In that regard, the presented study aims to assess the current status of renewable energy sources by considering the local energy context from a potential point of view. Further to this, it provides a comparative overview through a matrix of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Such novel analysis would be the fundamental base for formulating policy advice and a national plan to enhance the utilization of renewable energy in Kyrgyzstan. The presented analysis was carried out based on the extensive literature review, the country’s national plan, and the existing energy policies of Kyrgyzstan. The article found out that there is huge potential available for the renewable energy market. As compared to other renewable energy sources, solar energy has great potential and can be considered one of the pioneer sustainable sources for integration into the country’s power generation framework.

A void in Central Asia research: climate change

ABSTRACT This article assesses the extent to which the academic community engaged with climate change in Central Asia between 1991 and 2021. The article finds that climate change has been neglected in the field of Central Asia area studies. Out of a total 13,488 journal articles in eight key journals for Central Asia research, only 33 articles (0.24%) were on climate change or a related topic. Climate change has been similarly neglected at the events of 17 Central Asia area studies associations. Out of 1305 conference panels, none was focused on climate change. Out of 10,249 individual presentations, only two (0.02%) were focused on climate change. The very same scholars who have been most active in the securitization of Central Asia have ignored the severe security threats that climate change poses to the region. The article contributes to the field of Central Asian studies by drawing attention to severe knowledge gaps that hinder the Central Asian countries from adapting to climate change. It concludes with six recommendations.

Is There Spatial and Temporal Variability in the Response of Plant Canopy and Trunk Growth to Climate Change in a Typical River Basin of Arid Areas

The response of plants to climate change has become a topical issue. However, there is no consensus on the synergistic processes of the canopy and trunk growth within different vegetation types, or on the consistency of the response of the canopy and trunk to climate change. This paper is based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), tree-ring width index (TRW) and climate data from the Irtysh River basin, a sensitive area for climate change in Central Asia. Spatial statistical methods and correlation analysis were used to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of plants and climate, and to reveal the differences in the canopy and trunk response mechanisms to climate within different vegetation types. The results show a warming and humidifying trend between 1982 and 2015 in the study area, and NDVI and TRW increases in different vegetation type zones. On an interannual scale, temperature is the main driver of the canopy growth in alpine areas and precipitation is the main limiting factor for the canopy growth in lower altitude valley and desert areas. The degree of response of the trunk to climatic factors decreases with increasing altitude, and TRW is significantly correlated with mean annual temperature, precipitation and SPEI in desert areas. On a monthly scale, the earlier and longer growing season due to the accumulation of temperature and precipitation in the early spring and late autumn periods contributes to two highly significant trends of increase in the canopy from March to May and August to October. Climatic conditions during the growing season are the main limiting factor for the growth of the trunk, but there is considerable variation in the driving of the trunk in different vegetation type zones. The canopy growth is mainly influenced by climatic factors in the current month, while there is a 1–2-month lag effect in the response of the trunk to climatic factors. In addition, the synergy between the canopy and the trunk is gradually weakened with increasing altitude (correlation coefficient is 0.371 in alpine areas, 0.413 in valley areas and 0.583 in desert areas). These findings help to enrich the understanding of the response mechanisms to climate change in different vegetation type zones and provide a scientific basis for the development of climate change response measures in Central Asia.

Holocene fire records and their drivers in the westerlies-dominated Central Asia

Fire plays an important role in carbon emissions and climate changes in the Earth system and global/regional fires in the past have been detected. However, palaeofire history and their potential drivers are poorly understood in Central Asia. We in this study synthesized existing sedimentary charcoal records to reconstruct Holocene fire history in Central Asia and then assessed the relative importance of two potential controls (climatic and anthropogenic factors) on its trends. The results are: (1) Fire activity had insignificantly increased since ~7.9 cal. yr BP in Central Asia, although there was an obvious difference when fire history at different elevations is considered; (2) Periods of high fire activity occurred in the early-middle Holocene following by a decreasing trend in the late Holocene at high elevation, which might be attributed to a cooling temperature and the cooling-caused low biomass burning in the Holocene interval; (3) Episodes of high fire activity were common in the late Holocene and were primarily driven by the wetting-induced increased biomass burning, reinforced by the intensified human activities in middle-low elevation. Our findings could not only provide new unique insight about the long-time-scale fire-human-climate-vegetation interactions and also provide reasonable guidance for fire management given current climate change in Central Asia.