Climate Change In Brazil Research Articles

Climate change and disasters: analysis of the Brazilian regional inequality

One of the main consequences of climate change in Brazil is the increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall, which in turn trigger Hydrometeorological disasters; the Brazilian continental dimension, the regional characteristics of biomes and socioeconomic inequality are conditioning factors for the impacts of extreme events in the country. This work analyzes Brazil’s socioeconomic and urban infrastructure vulnerability, combined with the regional exposure of the population, based on disasters observed and future scenarios for the occurrence of rainfall extremes. As a result, it points out that climate change impact differently on large Brazilian regions, due to population density and the poor quality of urban infrastructure services.

The Nexus+ approach applied to studies of Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Brazil

This paper aims to present the methodology developed within the Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (IVA) to climate change component of the Fourth National Communication (4CN) of Brazil. The methodological choice of this 4CN involves the application of the nexus+ integrated approach, based on studies of impacts and vulnerabilities for water, energy, food and socio-environmental securities, in the different in the territories of Brazilian biomes, coastal areas and cities. For each of these securities it were identified the observed impacts; analysis of risk conditions; definition and assessments of integrated analysis of key impacts at territorial level; inventory, selection and analysis of adaption options in the context of Nexus+, identifying synergies and trade-offs. This process made possible an integrated assessment among the conditioning risk factors, impacts and interactions among proposed adaptation options.

Vector-borne diseases in Brazil: climate change and future warming scenarios

Climate change affects human health either directly or indirectly, and related impacts are complex, non-linear, and depend on several variables. The various climate change impacts on health include a change in the spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. In this regard, this study presents and discusses changes in the spatial distribution of climate suitability for visceral leishmaniasis, yellow fever and malaria in Brazil, in different global warming scenarios. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to construct climate suitability models in warming scenarios. Models were based in climate variables generated by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES regional model, in the baseline period 1965-2005 and RCP8.5 scenario, representing global warming levels of 1,5ºC (2011-2040), 2,0ºC (2041-2070) and 4,0ºC (2071-2099). The three diseases studied are largely influenced by climate and showed different distribution patterns within the country. In global warming scenarios, visceral leishmaniasis found more favorable climate conditions in the Southeastern and Southern regions of Brazil, while climate in the Northern and Center-West regions gradually became more favorable to yellow fever. In malaria scenarios, an increase in favorable climate conditions to its high incidence was observed in the Atlantic Forest, where currently extra-Amazonian cases occur. The scenarios presented herein represent different possible consequences for the health sector in terms of adopting (or not) different measures to mitigate climate change in Brazil, such as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.

Looking to future perceptions about climate change in Brazil: What children’s teachers think, learn and teach about?

The social and human sciences have had a minor role in the studies of climate change. There remains a significant gap in our knowledge and understanding of the many facets of this theme. The educational sector has been neglected in the climate change scientific debate, although it is acknowledged as a key sector. This article aims to understand how teachers are dealing with the climate change topic: what they think, learn and teach about it. It is focused on teachers at elementary schools (6–14 years old) in Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo State, Brazil. This type of social research is important for developing countries such as Brazil, where the sociological research on climate change is emergent. The identification of teachers' perceptions on climate change is an important step in finding ways to listen to and engage with them in the formulation of climate change adaptation plans, especially because they will be among the people responsible for preparing the younger generations of citizens. The survey of teachers’ knowledge and perception about climate change provides two main approaches: (1) It supports better planning of future school activities, training, and updating knowledge and (2) It suggests how children are being prepared to understand and deal with this contemporary problem of climate change.

Unpacking the policy mix of adaptation to climate change in Brazil’s semiarid region: enabling instruments and coordination mechanisms

ABSTRACTThis study analyzes the patterns of coordination of a set of policy instruments promoted by Brazil’s National Adaptation Plan as a means of fostering climate adaptation in the rural areas of the country’s semiarid region. It combines institutional data and semi-structured interviews with policymakers to elucidate the process of implementation of these instruments, with a focus on the enabling factors and (missing) connections in the policy mix. Coordination gaps between the enabling instruments and climate adaptation instruments, caused by institutional and political factors, resulted in implementation issues and a policy mix inclined to promote social vulnerability goals rather than sustainable production and climate risk management. The analysis provides insights into the challenges of achieving a coherent policy framework. It also contributes to the policy mix literature by defining criteria for a typology of interactions between policy instruments and by unpacking the functional ties of instruments in the policy mix.Key policy insightsPolicy coordination is a political rather than technical process.The policy mix includes climate adaptation instruments, enabling instruments, and complementary instruments, each of which play different functional roles. Both formal and informal mechanisms connect policy instruments.A policy mix analysis must be specific to both context and time. A network analysis of instrument interactions can provide methods and comparative outlooks that are more robust.Implementation gaps between the enabling instruments and climate adaptation instruments influence the resulting policy mix, which tends to promote achievement of social vulnerability goals rather than sustainable production and climate risk management.

Climatic trends of temperatures and precipitation in Brazilian localities

In recent decades, scientific and academic researchers around the world have been concerned with the assessment of regional and global climate trends. Under the hypothesis of the presence of climate change in Brazil, the aim of this work was to verify annual climate trends of maximum and minimum air temperatures and precipitation in 243 localities over all the Brazilian political regions. The data were obtained from National Institute of Meteorology. In this work there were identified and analysed trends in annual time series distributed between in 1961 and 2017. The detections and analyses were performed by the application of the statistical tests of Mann-Kendall and the Pettitt to evaluate the presence of statistical trends. The statistical results and the trend distributions maps show that, from all the studied localities, for maximum temperature indicate increasing trends in 35% of the series, decreasing trends in 1 and no trends in 64%. The minimum temperature showed increasing trends in 30% of the analysed series, decreasing in 8% and no trends in 63%. The precipitation, showed increasing trends in 6% of the studied series, decreasing in 4 and no trends in 91%. The observed climate trends can be related to anthropological activities like urban spraw, industrial development and increasing population density.

Use of Vegetation Cover Index (ICV) to Identify Susceptible Areas to Desertification Process in the Municipalities of Betânia, Floresta and Itacuruba, Pernambuco, Brazil

Climate change in Brazil has led to an increase in temperature and changes in the distribution of climatic extremes, such as droughts, droughts, floods and floods. This is potentialized when it comes to the semi-arid Northeast. Environmental studies related to this theme are in constant development. For this, the geotechnologies are of great importance for the environmental studies, since they allow the acquisition and analysis of information of use of the ground, vegetal cover and phenomena of the nature. In the present work, the Vegetation Cover Index was studied using remote sensing and geoprocessing techniques through the digital processing of images acquired in the years 2000 to 2015 of the LANDSAT satellites of three municipalities of Pernambuco to observe the vegetation cover in the said temporal space with the degraded areas possibly resulting from the desertification process in the region. Thus, it was found that the municipalities of Betânia and Itacuruba have very high vulnerability (0.75 and 1, respectively). On the other hand, the municipality of Floresta presented a high vulnerability of ICV (0.5), as the vegetation deficit influences hydrological dynamics, soil protection, climatic stability and thermal influence, corroborating the desertification process.

Will the emblematic southern conifer Araucaria angustifolia survive to climate change in Brazil?

Conifer forests dominated by Araucaria pines (Araucaria angustifolia) are emblematic of the humid forests in the southeast of Brazil, South America. However, these forests are highly fragmented and threatened by climate change. Despite the ecological and cultural importance of the dominant species (A. angustifolia), our knowledge of its climatic niche is incomplete. We aimed to understand the environmental drivers of the distribution and the climatic vulnerability of A. angustifolia in Brazil by modelling the extent of suitable climatic niches available for the species under the current climate and future climate scenarios. The potential distribution predicted by our model for the present was consistent with the real distribution of this species. However, our projections for future distributions show a decline in suitable climatic niches for the species, and a tendency for the species to be confined to high altitude mountain ranges and plateaus of south and southeast Brazil. Critically, most of the current protected areas will cease to harbor suitable climatic niches for the species. We conclude that prioritizing and expanding protected areas in important mountain ranges will be essential for protecting of the species in situ and to safeguard it from further habitat loss. Further research on population-level physiological responses of the species to climatic change and the role of biotic interactions will help optimize future modelling work.

IMPACTOS DO DESMATAMENTO PROGRESSIVO DA AMAZÔNIA NA PRECIPITAÇÃO DO BRASIL

A Floresta Amazônica possui importância indispensável para o equilíbrio terrestre, pois proporciona diversos serviços ambientais. O desmatamento é uma ameaça imediata a este ecossistema, pois afeta os níveis de evapotranspiração da floresta, tornando o clima local mais quente e seco; podendo influenciar no clima além de seus limites, devido à circulação atmosférica. Este estudo avalia os efeitos de longo prazo do desmatamento progressivo da Amazônia sobre a precipitação no Brasil, através do modelo CCM3-IBIS. Os resultados encontrados mostraram anomalias negativas com maior intensidade nos meses de setembro, outubro e novembro afetando o regime de chuvas em grande parte das Regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Já as anomalias anuais mostraram a influência da localização da floresta sobre as áreas que tiveram os índices pluviométricos reduzidos, em praticamente toda a Região Norte, leste da Região Nordeste e norte da Região Centro-Oeste. Além disso, os resultados de anomalias negativas anuais demonstraram que o impacto do desmatamento não é linear, pois no cenário de desmatamento total foram observadas anomalias negativas menos intensas que no cenário onde 60% da floresta foi transformada em pastagem. Em contrapartida, nas Regiões Sudeste e Sul prevaleceram as anomalias positivas de precipitação.

Climate change evidence in Brazil from Köppen's climate annual types frequency

This article proposes to use the Köppen classification to evidence climate change in Brazil. To do so, the average monthly temperature and precipitation data were computed for a set of 208 stations, representative of the climatic diversity of Brazil for the period from 1964 to 2015. The originality of our approach is not only to look at the shift between the averages of two references periods but also to observe how each year can be classified using Köppen's classification; thus, we defined “annual climate types” (ACT) and established the frequency of ACTs for each station and each period of 26 years: 1964–1989 and 1990–2015. The statistical and cartographic treatment of this information makes it possible to define the limits of the climates of Brazil and look at its evolution showing the diversity of regional situations in Brazil. The results show that 35 stations (17%) changed from the average Köppen's type, with significant regression of wet tropical types (Af and Am) and temperate types (C). On the other hand, the tropical (Aw), arid and semi‐arid (B) types progress between the two periods showing significant modifications of the climatic limits in Brazil: extension of aridity in the northeast of Brazil and increasing extinction of tropical types upon temperate climates in the south of the country and upon rainy types in the south of the Amazon. These results are consistent with other studies and illustrate the potential for climate change and variability monitoring using a simple classification method.

Hydropower revenues under the threat of climate change in Brazil

Abstract This work analyzes the impacts of climate change in the revenues of hydropower plants. One important input for designing and evaluating investment opportunities in hydropower is the water inflows historical data. Unfortunately, the use of such information alone may not project well the future power generation due to the influence of climate change in the water inflow patterns. This paper introduces spatio-temporal information of the future climate into the operational planning of the Brazilian hydropower system. Global climate models from IPCC are considered along with downscaled regional climate models. Our results at the individual hydro plant level show the importance of taking into account climate change information when performing hydro generation planning studies.

Brazil, Foreign Policy and Climate Change (1992-2005)

Abstract Since the emergence of the environmental agenda in the global arena, Brazil has maintained an active position in the debates around this topic. Although Brazil has always been a protagonist, its foreign policy has shown some changes in relation to addressing climate change in recent years. Likewise, the modalities under which this issue has been framed as a problem since 1992 are fundamentally important to interpreting the Brazilian position in international negotiations and the changes in them over the years. The objective of the following article is to understand the discursive framework on which the foreign policy of climate change in Brazil was structured from a constructivist standpoint on International Relations. Using this approach, this article studies both the international influences and the internal conditions of Brazilian climate policy in the negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The main sources of this research are semi-structured interviews with state and non-state actors in Brazil, complemented with a review of secondary sources such as official documents and academic papers.

Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil

The quantification of climate change impacts on several human activities depends on reliable weather data series, without gaps and long enough to build up future climate. Based on that, this study aimed to evaluate the performance of temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation and gridded databases (AgCFSR, AgMERRA, NASA/POWER, and XAVIER) as alternative ways for filling gaps in historical weather series (1980–2009) in Brazil and to project climate change scenarios based on measured and gridded weather data. Projections for mid- and end-of-century periods (2040–2069 and 2070–2099), using seven global climate models from CMIP5 under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios, were performed. The Bristow–Campbell model was the one that best estimated solar radiation, whereas the XAVIER gridded database was the closest to observed weather data. Future climate projections, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, as expected, showed warmer conditions for all scenarios over Brazil. On the contrary, rainfall projections are more uncertain. Despite that, the rainfall amounts will be reduced in the North-Northeast region and increased in Southern Brazil. No significant differences between projections using the observed and XAVIER gridded database were observed; therefore, such a database showed to be reliable for both to fill gaps and to generate climate change scenarios.

Climate Litigation in the Brazilian Superior Courts

Brazil has a specific Act on climate change. However, it needs to be enforced and interpreted in accordance with the constitutional principle of sustainable development so as to be effective. The principle of sustainable development is provided for by Act 12.187/2009, which established the National Policy for Climate Change -NPCC. The Act - although imperfect and lacking in some respects - is a breakthrough and a milestone in the fight against climate change and global warming. It has clearly incorporated concepts of international instruments that protect the environment. The Act 12.187 is implemented by Executive Order 7.390/2010, which, among other important points, states that greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced from 36.1% to 38.9% by the year 2020. However, before the United Nations Conference on the Post-2015 Development Agenda, held in New York in September 2015, Brazil promised that the reduction would be of 37% by 2025 and 43% by 2030, exceeding the goals established in the Executive Order. The big question is whether Brazil will have the structure, technical capacity and political will to seriously achieve these goals. The shortage of structure to monitor sources that emit greenhouse gases; the increasing deforestation of the Amazon rainforest; transport dependent on fossil fuels (; the lack of environmental education in schools; and corruption are all serious obstacles to be fought against so that this goal can be achieved. Brazil plays a major role in the global fight against climate change, especially because of its vast forests. However, the amount of deforestation now occurring is in great dispute. Between August 2014 and July 2015, for example, deforestation in the Amazon rainforest increased by 215% according to Imazon Research Institute.73 Contrarily, according to Brazil Government, the increase was only 16%.74 This paper discusses the role that legislation and litigation are playing, and the roles they may and should play in the future, in combatting deforestation and other factors relevant to climate change in Brazil.

Climate Legislation and Litigation in Brazil

Brazil plays a major role in the global fight against climate change, especially because of its vast forests. However, the amount of deforestation now occurring is in great dispute. Between August 2014 and July 2015, for example, deforestation in the Amazon rainforest increased by 215% according to Imazon Research Institute. Contrarily, according to the Brazil Government, the increase was only 16%. This paper discusses the role that legislation and litigation are playing, and the roles they may and should play in the future, in combatting deforestation and other factors relevant to climate change in Brazil.

Sistemas Agroflorestais como Estratégia de Adaptação aos Desafios das Mudanças Climáticas no Brasil

Resumo: O presente artigo analisou o papel desempenhado pelos sistemas agroflorestais (SAF’s) como medida adaptativa às mudanças climáticas no Brasil. Foi desenvolvido um modelo de efeito de tratamento (Propensity Score Matching), que permitiu identificar os principais determinantes do uso de SAF’s e se municípios nos quais essa técnica é utilizada são menos vulneráveis às mudanças climáticas. Os resultados indicaram que variáveis socioeconômicas (propriedade da terra, opções de financiamento, acesso a informações e assistência técnica) e agronômicas (disponibilidade de recursos hídricos e qualidade do solo) influenciam a adoção de SAF’s nos municípios brasileiros. As condições climáticas (temperatura e precipitação) também têm participação importante no emprego desses sistemas, o que confirma seu papel de estratégia adaptativa. Conclui-se também que os SAF’s têm potencial de melhorar o desempenho agrícola brasileiro, já que o valor da terra tende a ser maior em municípios onde esses sistemas são utilizados. Desse modo, os SAF’s podem tornar o setor agropecuário menos exposto aos efeitos negativos das mudanças climáticas, tanto no presente quanto em cenários futuros.

Tendências do controle climático oceânico sob a variabilidade temporal da precipitação no Nordeste do Brasil

Given the significant differences in spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, prolonged periods of water stress, problematic soils and absence of perennial rivers, the Northeastern interior is the region most vulnerable to climate change in Brazil. Based on analysis of climate data, this study aims to identify trends in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, East Pacific and Central Pacific Oceans and their relation with the temporal variability in precipitation in Pernambuco in recent periods. Three methods were used to achieve the proposed objective. The Rain Anomaly Index was used as evidence of the relationship between the oceans and rainfall in NEB. Research trends in TSM's the Mann-Kendall method. To demonstrate changes in current precipitation, climate indices suggested by the Expert Team on Detection, Monitoring and Climate Change Indices were used. The climate change indices indicated that changes in rainfall patterns have been occurring, with a tendency toward an increase in the volume of rain (with the exception of the eastern coast) and more concentrated seasonal distributions. Statistical analysis of TSM's on the Pacific and Atlantic allowed us to observe that there is a warming trend and that when analyzed alone, the occurrence of positive anomalies over the eastern Pacific (El Nino) and negative anomalies over the South Atlantic (positive dipole), droughts are more severe, based on analysis of the rainfall anomaly index. Also based on the IAC, we concluded that when both events occur in isolation they exert influence on rainfall in the region, however, when they act together this influence is more pronounced, changing the behavior of the general circulation of the atmosphere meridionaly (Hadley cell) and zonally (Walker cell).

Vulnerability Assessments To The Impacts Of Climate Change In Brazil

Ulisses E.C. Confalonieri CPqRR/ Fiocruz, Brazil Projected impacts of global climate change on human health in Brazil are associated to both extreme weather events and to changes in baseline climat...

Microfinance and Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities, the Case of Brazil's Largest Rural MFIs, Agroamigo and Cresol

This paper reports a cross-case study of the interface between rural microfinance and climate change in Brazil. We use a simple theoretical framework to analyse climate change opportunities and threats of Brazil’s largest rural microfinance institutions, Agroamigo and Cresol, along three main metadimensions: economic, financial and additional services. Our analysis focuses on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and, to a lesser extent, mitigation. As proxy for climate change effects on clients and institutions, we use the recent droughts and floods affecting some of the areas of operation of these MFIs. We argue that the absence of a combination of climate change strategies in MFIs operating in weather hazard prone regions may result in greater and additional credit risks for their portfolios and a missing opportunity for these players to support their clients better respond to climate change impacts. The case studies under scrutiny corroborate our hypothesis.

Evaluation of Renewable Energy Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil: A Case Study of Biofuels and Solar Energy

This study aims to calculate indicators and indexes to subsidize the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation of the renewable energy sector to climate change in Brazil, focusing on biofuels and solar energy. For biofuels, in general, the Brazilian coast will be a propitious area for agricultural productivity during the XXI century, but these are areas historically intended for occupation and development of the urbanization process, that is, with limited land availability and supply for primary production. In some parts of the Northeast, Midwest and South of the country, offer for the cultivation land will be reduced. For the solar energy is observed that Brazil has area and highly expressive power for the use of this power, both today and in the coming decades, especially in the North, Northeast and Midwest. In statistical terms, the Mann-Kendal test and Sen’s Bend point to a very weak tendency to useful radiation indicator in all regions of Brazil by 2100. In addition, it is projected a significant increase in mean air temperature by the end of XXI century across the country that can mean a reduction in power conversion capability, which is sensitive to ambient temperature variations, especially in the Midwest and North of the country.