Impact Of Climate Change Research Articles

Dynamic process of ecosystem water use efficiency and response to drought in the Yellow River Basin, China.

Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) is a crucial indicator of the impact of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, reflecting the balance between biological processes (photosynthesis and transpiration) and physical processes (evapotranspiration). However, the response mechanisms and driving processes of WUE to drought remain to be further understood. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics and response mechanisms of WUE in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) using data on Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), Evapotranspiration (ET) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which revealed the cumulative effect of drought on WUE and assessed the ecosystem's resilience. The study results showed that (1) GPP, ET and WUE in the YRB exhibited a significant increasing trend, with 63.04 % of the area showing a marked increase in WUE. (2) GPP was the dominant factor influencing WUE in 65.36 % of the area, particularly in cropland and grassland, while ET was more influential in forested areas. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was identified as the principal driver affecting vegetation GPP in semi-arid and semi-humid regions of the YRB. In contrast, soil moisture (SM) was the limiting factor in arid areas. (3) 71.00 % of the WUE in the basin was affected by drought cumulative effects, with an average cumulative duration of 4.5 months. Arid regions experienced the most extended duration of 7.29 months, compared to 3.05 months in semi-humid regions. (4) 74.85 % of the regional ecosystems exhibited ecological resilience to drought, particularly in the source areas of the western basin of the YRB. Shrublands have the highest drought resilience among vegetation types, while grasslands have the lowest. The resilience of each climatic zone was in the order of semi-humid, semi-arid, and arid order. This study comprehensively analyzed of the spatial and temporal dynamics and response mechanisms of WUE in the YRB, offering a new perspective and scientific basis for understanding and predicting the ecosystem response to climate change.

Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain

Mediterranean water-stressed areas face significant challenges from higher temperatures and increasingly severe droughts. We assess the effect of climate change on rainfed barley production in the aridity-prone province of Almería, Spain, using the FAO AquaCrop model. We focus on rainfed barley growth by the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100) time periods, using three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using the paired t-test, Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, and relative Root Mean Squared Error, we verified AquaCrop’s ability to capture local multi-year trends (9 or more years) using standard barley crop parameters, without local recalibration. Starting with a reference Initial Soil Water Content (ISWC), different soil water contents within barley rooting depth were modelled to account for decreases in soil water availability. We then evaluated the efficiency of different climate adaptation strategies: irrigation, mulching, and changing sowing dates. We show average yield changes of +14% to −44.8% (mid-century) and +12% to −55.1% (end-century), with ISWC being the main factor determining yields. Irrigation increases yields by 21.1%, utilizing just 3% of Almería’s superficial water resources. Mulches improve irrigated yield performances by 6.9% while reducing irrigation needs by 40%. Changing sowing dates does not consistently improve yields. We demonstrate that regardless of the scenario used, climate adaptation of field barley production in Almería should prioritize limiting soil water loss by combining irrigation with mulching. This would enable farmers in Almería’s northern communities to maintain their livelihoods, reducing the province’s reliance on horticulture while continuing to contribute to food security goals.

Climate Change-Induced Livelihood Vulnerabilities in South Western Coastal Region of Bangladesh

This study focused on the impact of climate change on the livelihood of coastal people. The study used primary and secondary data to complete the study. The climatic components are changing gradually, consequently, the impact of adversity on livelihood is severe in coastal areas. This research has found the perceptions of coastal people regarding climate change and it’s devastation. Coastal people faced change-induced disasters such as cyclones, floods, tidal surges, salinity intrusion, and erosion that affected the coastal communities and their livelihoods. The study found people lost their livelihood sectors, especially agricultural activities, fish farms, fishing culture, cattle farms, business, daily working opportunities, and daily labor. However, due to the challenges during and after the disasters, they cannot easily resume their regular occupations and jobs, including agricultural activities, fishing farms, fishing and cropping businesses, daily labor, seasonal labor, and workers for fishing farms. Furthermore, the coastal people lost their property and lives, particularly settlements, agricultural land, and crops, to climate change-induced adversity. The marginal farmers and laborers are the main losers during and after disasters because they have no backup money for survival. Many of them took loans from local financial institutions and money lenders. The research will provide guidelines for the coastal community and policymakers to mitigate the impact of adversity. Jagannath University Journal of Life and Earth Sciences, 9(2): 163–178, 2023 (December)

Lake Kinneret and Hula Valley Ecosystems under Climate Change and Anthropogenic Involvement

The long-term record of ecological, limnological and climatological parameters that were documented in the Kinneret drainage basin was statistically evaluated. The dependent relations between environmental parameters and a change in climate conditions open a consequence dispute between three optional definitions: long-term instability, climate change impact and ecosystem resiliency. The Kinneret drainage basin during the Anthropocene era is marked by intensive anthropogenic involvement: Increase in population size, drainage of the wetlands and old lake Hula, agricultural development, enhancement of lake Kinneret utilization for water supply, hydrological management, fishery and recreation. Therefore, the impact of a combination of natural and anthropogenic environmental factors confounded each other, and the uniqueness of climate change is unclear.

Considering climate change impact on the global potential geographical distribution of the invasive Argentine ant and little fire ant.

The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) and the little fire ant (Wasmannia auropunctata) are among the top 100 invasive alien species globally, causing significant ecological and economic harm. Therefore, it is crucial to study their potential geographic distribution worldwide. This study aimed to predict their global distribution under current and future climate conditions. We used distribution data from various sources, including CABI, GBIF, and PIAKey, and key climate variables selected from 19 environmental factors to model their potential geographic distribution using MaxEnt. The AUC values were 0.925 and 0.937 for L. humile and W. auropunctata, respectively, indicating good predictive performance. Suitable areas for L. humile were mainly in southern North America, northern South America, Europe, central Asia, southern Oceania, and parts of Africa, while W. auropunctata suitable areas were mostly in southern North America, most of South America, a small part of Europe, southern Asia, central Africa, and some parts of Oceania. Under climate change scenario, suitable areas for L. humile increased, while highly suitable areas for W. auropunctata decreased. The top four countries with the largest areas of overlapping suitable habitat under current climate were Brazil, China, Australia, and Argentina, while under future SSP585 climate scenario, the top four countries were Brazil, China, Indonesia, and Argentina. Some countries, such as Estonia and Finland, will see an overlapping adaptation area under climate change. In conclusion, this study provides insight into controlling the spread and harm of L. humile and W. auropunctata.

Climate change and credit risk in rural financial institutions: A study based on transition risk

AbstractThis study empirically investigates the impact of climate change on credit risks in rural financial institutions, emphasizing transition risk. We analyzed data from 202 rural financial institutions across, China spanning 2012 to 2020. The empirical findings reveal the following: Firstly, climate change exerts an inverted U‐shaped influence on credit risks in rural financial institutions. Secondly, the inverted U‐shaped relationship is influenced by both the level of digital development and uncertainty in climate policy. Lastly, heightened levels of digital development and increased uncertainty about climate policy can mitigate the negative effects of climate change.

Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections

Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge of the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and climate-related risks. We adopt an analysis pipeline inspired by Markov State Modelling and detect in an unsupervised manner the dominant winter mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere weather patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. The daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields are first classified in about 200 microstates. The weather dynamics are then represented on the basis of these microstates and the slowest decaying modes are identified from the spectral properties of the transition probability matrix. These modes are defined on the basis of the nonlinear dynamical processes of the system and not as tentative metastable states, as often done in Markov state analysis. When focusing on a shifting longitudinal window of 60∘, we find that the longitude-dependent estimate of the longest relaxation time is smaller where stronger baroclinic activity is found. In the Atlantic and Pacific sectors slow relaxation processes are mainly related to transitions between blocked regimes and zonal flow. We also find strong evidence of a dynamical regime associated with the simultaneous Atlantic-Pacific blocking. When the analysis is performed on a broader geographical region of the Atlantic sector, we discover that the slowest relaxation modes of the system are associated with transitions between dynamical regimes that resemble teleconnection patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation and weather regimes like the Scandinavian and Greenland blocking, yet have a much stronger dynamical foundation than classical methods based e.g. on EOF analysis. Our method clarifies that, as a result of the lack of a time-scale separation in the atmospheric variability of the mid-latitudes, there is no clear-cut way to represent the atmospheric dynamics in terms of few, well-defined modes of variability. The approach proposed here can be seamlessly applied across different regions of the globe for detecting regional modes of variability, and has a great potential for intercomparing climate models and for assessing the impact of climate change on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere.

Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts

The widespread destruction incurred by midlatitude storms every year makes it an imperative to study how storms change with climate. The impact of climate change on midlatitude windstorms, however, is hard to evaluate due to the small signals in variables such as wind speed, as well as the high resolutions required to represent the dynamic processes in the storms. Here, we assess how storm Eunice, which hit the UK in February 2022, was impacted by anthropogenic climate change using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. This system was demonstrably able to predict the storm, significantly increasing our confidence in its ability to model the key physical processes and their response to climate change. Using modified greenhouse gas concentrations and changed initial conditions for ocean temperatures, we create two counterfactual scenarios of storm Eunice in addition to the forecast for the current climate. We compare the intensity and severity of the storm between the pre-industrial, current, and future climates. Our results robustly indicate that Eunice has become more intense with climate change and similar storms will continue to intensify with further anthropogenic forcing. These results are consistent across forecast lead times, increasing our confidence in them. Analysis of storm composites shows that this process is caused by increased vorticity production through increased humidity in the warm conveyor belt of the storm. This is consistent with previous studies on extreme windstorms. Our approach of combining forecasts at different lead times for event attribution enables combining event specificity and a focus on dynamic changes with the assessment of changing risks from windstorms. Further work is needed to develop methods to adjust the initial conditions of the atmosphere for the use in attribution studies using weather forecasts but we show that this approach is viable for reliable and fast attribution systems.

Investigation of Metabolic Responses in Virus-infected Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Grown in Azerbaijan

Barley yellow dwarf viruses (BYDV), Wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV), Wheat dwarf virus (WDV), and Soil-borne wheat mosaic virus (SBWMV) constitute the most dangerous and widespread viruses affecting cereals across all wheat-growing regions worldwide. While numerous foreign scientific reports focus on the impact of climate change on plants, pathogens, and their vectors, only a limited number of studies address cereal viruses. The objective of this study was to investigate the variability of economically significant wheat viruses in several regions of Azerbaijan and to identify certain metabolic enzymes such as malate dehydrogenase (MDH), aspartate aminotransferase (AsAT), and alanine aminotransferase (ALAT) in virus-infected wheat samples. During 2022-2023, it was observed that BYDV and WSMV alternated in prevalence from year to year, with no instances of co-infection recorded. SBWMV was not detected in the tested samples. WSMV incidence rates were 12.4% and 19% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, whereas BYDV was detected at rates of 14.6% and 8.5%, respectively. Our results support a tight relationship between amino acid metabolism and stress responses. The results of the research allow the conclusion that mitochondrial NAD-MDH implements oxidation of NADH reduced in the reaction of glycine decarboxylation during photorespiration and intensifies biosynthesis of 2-oxoglutarate playing the role of the carbon skeleton in the synthesis of amino acids.

Climate Change Effect in Nigeria Mitigation, Adaptation, Strategies and Way Forward in the World of Internet of Things

This paper delves into the comprehensive impact of climate change in Nigeria, emphasising the critical role of Internet of Things (IoT) technology in formulating mitigation and adaptation strategies. It highlights the significant threats climate change poses to Nigeria's ecological balance, economy, and societal structure, including altered temperature patterns, more frequent extreme weather events, and ramifications for agriculture, water supply, and health. It underscores the urgency for effective responses to protect the nation's welfare and economic integrity. The study showcases the potential of IoT technology as a pivotal tool in crafting innovative responses to climate change challenges. It demonstrates how IoT can bolster Nigeria's resilience through enhanced agricultural methods, better management of water resources, and more efficient energy utilisation. IoT devices' real-time data gathering and analytical prowess facilitate precise environmental monitoring, timely disaster warnings, and resource optimisation. The discussion extends to mitigation tactics like shifting towards renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and sustainable land use, alongside adaptation strategies that include building climate- resilient structures, advocating for water conservation, and applying climate-smart agricultural practices to safeguard food security. Advocating for a cooperative strategy that integrates efforts from the government, private sector, academia, and communities, the paper stresses the importance of incorporating IoT solutions into national climate action and development strategies for a unified and robust approach to climate-related challenges. It concludes with a roadmap for the future, proposing policy reforms, investments in IoT infrastructure, skill development, and heightened public awareness as essential moves towards a sustainable, climate-resilient Nigeria. By strategically deploying IoT technologies, Nigeria can mitigate the detrimental impacts of climate change and tap into new avenues for economic and environmental prosperity.

Comparative Assessment of Impacts of Future Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Daqinghe Basin, China

Comparative Assessment of Impacts of Future Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Daqinghe Basin, China

Economic impacts of climate change on forests: a PICUS-LANDIS-CGE modeling approach

Climate change is expected to alter both forest stand- and landscape-level dynamics through a change in environmental characterises. While numerous studies have employed models to assess the ecological and/or economic impacts of such changes on forests throughout the world, there is need to further refine such analyses. In this paper, we contribute to this literature by coupling an ecological (PICUS-LANDIS II) modeling framework with an economic (CGE) model to better account for the economic impact associated with climate-induced impacts on forest stand and landscape-level structure and composition dynamics. Applying this framework to a case-study region of New Brunswick, Canada, we estimate that climate change will reduce softwood supply by 16-73% and impact hardwood supply in the range of -2% to +4% by 2150. The change in wood supply is estimated to reduce the value of the softwood and hardwood forestry and logging sector output by up to 51% and 17%, respectively, by 2150. These sector-level impacts may lead to a 0.08-0.88% reduction in annual GDP by 2150. The methodological advances established in this study can be used to better inform future forest management and economic plans that aim to lessen both the ecological and economic impact of climate change.

Understanding Climate Anxiety and the Need for Inclusive Healthcare Policy

The world is facing an unprecedented crisis due to anthropogenic climate change. Its effects on physical and mental health are becoming increasingly evident. This paper examines the impact of climate change on mental health, focusing on the consequences of natural disasters and slow-onset climate changes. The concept of ‘climate anxiety’ emerges as a significant concern, affecting individuals and communities globally. It involves a fear of uncertain future impacts, and grief over ecological losses. Climate justice becomes paramount in addressing the disproportionate impact on different populations, which in this case includes a focus on healthcare policy taking into consideration the ‘psychoterratic illnesses.

Potential Impact of Climate Change-Induced Alterations on Pyroptotic Cell Death in Animal Cells: A Review.

Climate change-induced alterations in temperature variation, ozone exposure, water salinity and acidification, and hypoxia might influence immunity and thus survival in diverse groups ofanimals from fish to mammals. Pyroptosis is a type of lytic pro-inflammatory programmed cell death, which participates in the innate immune response, and is involved in multiple diseases characterized by inflammation and cell death, mostly studied in human cells. Diverse extrinsic factors can induce pyroptosis, leading to the extracellular release of pro-inflammatory moleculessuch as IL-18. Climate change-related factors, either directly or indirectly, can also promote animal cell death via different regulated mechanisms, impacting organismal fitness. However, pyroptosis has been relatively less studied in this context compared to another cell death process, apoptosis. This review covers previous research pointing to the potential impact of climate change, through various abiotic stressors, on pyroptotic cell death in different animal cells in various contexts. It was proposed that temperature, ozone exposure, watersalinity, wateracidification and hypoxia have the potential to induce pyroptotic cell death in animal cells and promote inflammation, and that these pyroptotic events should be better understood to be able to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on animal physiology and health. This is of high importance considering the increasing frequency, intensity and duration of climate-based changes in these environmental parameters, and the critical function of pyroptosis in immune responses of animals and in their predisposition to multiple diseasesincluding cancer. Furthermore, the need for further mechanistic studies showing the more direct impact of climate change-induced environmental alterations on pyroptotic cell death in animals at the organismal level was highlighted. A complete picture of the association between climate change and pyroptosis in animals will be also highly valuable in terms of ecological and clinical applications, and it requires an interdisciplinary approach. SIGNIFICANCE: Climate change-induced alterations might influence animal physiology. Pyroptosis is a form of cell death with pro-inflammatory characteristics. Previous research suggests that temperature variation, ozone exposure, water salinity and acidification, and hypoxia might have the potential to contribute to pyroptotic cell death in certain cell types and contexts. Climate change-induced pyroptotic cell death should be better understood to be able to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on animal health.

Non-trade-off Changes in Soil Conservation Service and Soil Loss on the Tibetan Plateau Underlying the Impacts of Climate Change and human activities.

Climate change and human activities have significantly influenced soil loss and the soil conservation service, posed threats to regional ecological sustainability. However, the relationships and underlying driving forces between potential soil loss, actual soil loss, and soil conservation service have not been well understood. Utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, we evaluated the soil conservation service on the Tibetan plateau from 1990 to 2020. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends and examined the driving factors using linear regression, Pearson correlation, and random forest regression. The soil conservation service exhibited a complex pattern of increase followed by a decrease, with a turning point around 2010. Soil conservation service and soil loss demonstrated non-trade-off changes. The potential soil loss dominated the spatiotemporal patterns of soil conservation service on the Tibetan Plateau. Climatic factors significantly influenced the spatiotemporal patterns of soil conservation service, with annual precipitation emerging as the dominant driving factor, contributing approximately 20%. However, the impacts of human activities became more pronounced since 2010, and the contribution of vegetation to changes in soil conservation service was increased. The impact of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on soil conservation service for the grades I, II, and III increased by 13.19%, 3.08%, and 3.41%, respectively. Conversely, in northern Tibet before 2010 and eastern Three-River-Source after 2010, soil conservation service exhibited an increasing trend driven by both climate factors and human activities. Which indicates that the implementation of ecological restoration measures facilitated vegetation improvement and subsequently reduced actual soil loss. This study provides a scientific basis for resource management, land development strategies, and the formulation of ecological restoration measures on the Tibetan Plateau.

Warming and shifts in litter quality drive multiple responses in freshwater detritivore communities

Aquatic detritivores are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and leaf litter quality caused by increases in atmospheric CO2. While impacts on detritivores are evident at the organismal and population level, the mechanisms shaping ecological communities remain unclear. Here, we conducted field and laboratory experiments to examine the interactive effects of changes in leaf litter quality, due to increasing atmospheric CO2, and warming, on detritivore survival (at both organismal and community levels) and detritus consumption rates. Detritivore community consisted of the collector-gathering Polypedilum (Chironomidae), the scraper and facultative filtering-collector Atalophlebiinae (Leptophlebiidae), and Calamoceratidae (Trichoptera), a typical shredder. Our findings reveal intricate responses across taxonomic levels. At the organismal level, poor-quality leaf litter decreased survivorship of Polypedilum and Atalophlebiinae. We observed taxon-specific responses to warming, with varying effects on growth and consumption rates. Notably, species interactions (competition, facilitation) might have mediated detritivore responses to climate stressors, influencing community dynamics. While poor-quality leaf litter and warming independently affected detritivore larvae abundance of Atalophebiinae and Calamoceratidae, their combined effects altered detritus consumption and emergence of adults of Atalophlebiinae. Furthermore, warming influenced species abundances differently, likely exacerbating intraspecific competition in some taxa while accelerating development in others. Our study underscores the importance of considering complex ecological interactions in predicting the impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystem functioning. Understanding these emergent properties contributes to a better understanding of how detritivore communities may respond to future environmental conditions, providing valuable insights for ecosystem management and conservation efforts.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Changes, Building Characteristics, and HVAC Control on Energy Requirements under a Mediterranean Climate

Despite efforts to mitigate climate change, annual greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, which may lead to the global warming of our planet. Buildings’ thermal energy needs are inherently linked to climate conditions. Consequently, it is crucial to evaluate how climate change affects these energy demands. Despite extensive analysis, a comprehensive assessment involving a diverse range of building types has not been consistently conducted. The primary objective of this research is to perform a coherent evaluation of the influence of climate changes, construction element properties, and the Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system type of control on the energy requirements of six buildings (residential, services, and commercial). The buildings are considered to be located in a temperate Mediterranean climate. Our focus is on the year 2070, considering three distinct climatic scenarios: (i) maintaining the current climate without further changes, (ii) moderate climate changes, and (iii) extreme climate changes. The buildings are distributed across three different locations, each characterized by unique climatic conditions. Buildings’ envelope features a traditional External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) and expanded polystyrene (EPS) serves as thermal insulation material. Two critical design factors are explored: EPS thickness ranging from 0 (no insulation) to 12 cm; and horizontal external fixed shading elements varying lengths from 0 (absence) to 150 cm. Six alternative setpoint ranges are assessed for the HVAC system control: three based on the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and three based on indoor air temperature (Tair). Results were obtained with a validated in-home software tool. They show that, even under extreme climate conditions, the application of thermal insulation remains energetically favorable; however, its relative importance diminishes as climate severity increases. Then, proper insulation design remains important for energy efficiency. The use of external shading elements for glazing (e.g., overhangs, louvers) proves beneficial in specific cases. As climate changes intensify, the significance of shading elements grows. Thus, strategic placement and design are necessary for good results. The HVAC system’s energy consumption depends on the level of thermal comfort requirements, on the climate characteristics, and on the building’s type of use. As climate change severity intensifies, energy demands for cooling increase, whereas energy needs for heating decrease. However, it is essential to recognize that the impact of climate changes on HVAC system energy consumption significantly depends on the type of building.

Caring for our planet: a world apart or same difference? A global music collaboration

PurposeThe impact and collective threat of climate change is of key concern to all. Music and arts education can play a role by responding to the ongoing climate crisis through the creation of artworks as activism. This paper discusses a collaborative online international music project and its potential contribution to sustainable development education.Design/methodology/approach 10,427 miles and 11 hours apart, music education students undertook the project, working in groups with a mix of students from Aberdeen, Scotland and Melbourne, Australia in each group. Each student collected video footage that captured their experience of climate concerns related to their environment. Students combined and edited the footage then collaboratively composed music to accompany the footage. This research was conceived as a collaborative self-study project undertaken by the authors as music teacher educators.FindingsThe results show a range of musical and extra musical outcomes and challenges. Evidence suggests that a collaborative online international music learning experience may contribute to sustainable development education and regenerative practice more broadly. Students began to develop their practice as educators for school and community contexts embedding learning for sustainability and climate consciousness, thus enabling them to develop as active global citizens.Originality/valueThis paper argues for greater attention to the affordances of digital collaborative music technology tools to facilitate creative projects as well as the need to reimagine musical experience, drawing together strands of music, sustainability education, technology and global citizenship. This paper also argues for the importance of embedding the UN Sustainable Development Goals in teaching and learning in Higher Education.

Population-specific climate sensitive top height curves and their applications to assisted migration

AbstractGrowth and yield (G&Y) of forest plantations can be significantly impacted by maladaptation resulting from climate change, and assisted migration has been proposed to mitigate these impacts by restoring populations to their historic climates. However, genecology models currently used for guiding assisted migration do not account for impacts of climate change on cumulative growth and assume that responses of forest population to climate do not change with age. Using provenance trial data for interior lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta subsp. latifolia Douglas) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) in western Canada, we integrated Universal Response Functions, representing the relationship of population performance with their provenance and site climates, into top height curves in a G&Y model (Growth and Yield Projection System, GYPSY) to develop population-specific climate sensitive top height curves for both species. These new models can estimate the impact of climate change on top height of local populations and populations from a range of provenances to help guide assisted migration. Our findings reveal that climate change is expected to have varying effects on forest productivity across the landscape, with some areas projected to experience a slight increase in productivity by the 2050s, while the remainder are projected to face a significant decline in productivity for both species. Adoption of assisted migration, however, with the optimal populations selected was projected to maintain and even improve productivity at the provincial scale. The findings of this study provide a novel approach to incorporating assisted migration approaches into forest management to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

Sustainability Assessment of 2G Bioethanol Production from Residual Lignocellulosic Biomass

The development of sustainable biofuels can help to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and mitigate the impact of climate change. This study analyzes bioethanol production from agro-forestry residual biomass, namely eucalyptus residues and corn stover. The study includes process simulation using Aspen Plus software, followed by economic analysis and life cycle assessment (LCA) with the help of SimaPro software and by applying the environmental footprint (EF) 3.0 method. The economic analysis on the biorefinery’s economic viability, equipment, and production costs reveals a positive decision for bioethanol production from eucalyptus residues due to logistical and transportation costs. The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) obtained was 2.19 €/L and 2.45 €/L for eucalyptus residues and corn stover, respectively. From the LCA with a functional unit of 1 MJ of ethanol, bioethanol production from eucalyptus residues results in a single score impact of 37.86 µPt, whereas for corn stover, it is 33.47 µPt. In the climate change impact category, the eucalyptus residues scenario has an impact of 0.264 kg CO2 eq/MJ ethanol while corn stover leads to 0.254 kg CO2 eq/MJ ethanol. In-situ enzyme production, heat integration, and the use of renewable energy sources were also analyzed. Combining in situ enzyme production with renewable energy sources lowers CO2 equivalent emissions by 89% for both feedstocks, in comparison to the base-case scenario.