Climate Feedbacks Research Articles

The Interaction Between Climate Forcing and Feedbacks

AbstractA Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) is used to better understand the sensitivity of aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks to changes in model processes. Aerosol forcing through aerosol‐cloud interactions is mostly negative (a cooling) due to shortwave radiation, while feedbacks are positive or negative in different regions due to contrasting longwave and shortwave effects. Both forcing and feedbacks are related to the mean climate state. Higher magnitude cloud radiative effects generally mean larger magnitude net negative forcing and larger magnitude net positive feedback. Aerosol forcing is broadly related to the susceptibility of clouds to drop number. Feedbacks also related to susceptibility, but to a lesser extent and in different regions to aerosol forcing. Aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks are anti‐correlated in the CAM6 PPE such that stronger negative forcing is associated with stronger positive feedbacks. Even the processes governing forcing and feedback sensitivity in the PPE are similar. These include the warm rain formation process, ice loss processes and deep convective intensity.

Decreased dust particles amplify the cloud cooling effect by regulating cloud ice formation over the Tibetan Plateau.

Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) can initiate cloud ice formation, influencing cloud radiative effects (CRE) and climate. However, the knowledge of INP sources, concentrations, and their impact on CRE over the Tibetan Plateau (TP)-a highly climate-sensitive region-remains largely hypothetical. Here, we integrated data from multisource satellite observations and snowpack samples collected from five glaciers to demonstrate that dust particles constitute primary INP sources over the TP. The springtime dust influxes lead to seasonally elevated ice concentrations in mixed-phase clouds. Furthermore, the decadal reduction in dustiness from 2007 to 2019 results in decreased springtime dust INPs, thereby amplifying the cooling effect of clouds over the TP, with a 1.98 ± 0.39-watt per square meter reduction in surface net CRE corresponding to a 0.01 decrease in dust optical depth. Our findings elucidate previously unidentified pathways of climate feedback from an atmospheric INP perspective, especially highlighting the crucial role of dust in aerosol-cloud interactions.

Small reduction in land surface albedo due to solar panel expansion worldwide

Photovoltaic (PV) panel deployment for decarbonization may reduce local terrestrial albedo, triggering a positive radiative forcing that counteracts the desired negative radiative forcing from carbon emission reductions. Yet, this potential adverse impact remains uncertain due to limited observations at PV sites. Herein we employ a robust linear parameterization method to quantify PV-induced albedo changes based on satellite data globally. We find an overall albedo decrease of −1.28 (−1.80, −0.90) × 10−2 (median and interquartile range), specific for land-cover types and climate regimes. However, the extent of albedo reduction is markedly lower than simplistic assumed values in simulating climate feedback for solar farming in Earth system models. Moreover, the albedo-induced positive radiative forcing can be offset by negative radiative forcing from clean solar generation in most PV farms within one year. Our findings underscore PV’s potential in mitigating global warming and stress the need for more accurate model estimations.

Late Quaternary glacial maxima in southern Patagonia: insights from the Lago Argentino glacier lobe

Abstract. Determining the timing and extent of Quaternary glaciations around the globe is critical to understanding the drivers behind climate change and glacier fluctuations. Evidence from the southern mid-latitudes indicates that local glacial maxima preceded the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), implying that feedbacks in the climate system or ice dynamics played a role beyond the underlying orbital forcings. To shed light on these processes, we investigated the glacial landforms shaped and deposited by the Lago Argentino glacier (50° S), an outlet lobe of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet, in southern Argentina. We mapped geomorphological features on the landscape and dated moraine boulders and outwash sediments using 10Be cosmogenic nuclides and feldspar infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) to constrain the chronology of glacial advance and retreat. We report that the Lago Argentino glacier lobe reached more extensive limits prior to the global LGM, advancing during the middle to late Pleistocene between 243–132 ka and during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3), culminating at 44.5 ± 8.0 and at 36.6 ± 1.0 ka. Our results indicate that the most extensive advance of the last glacial cycle occurred during MIS 3, and we hypothesize that this was a result of longer and colder winters, as well as increased precipitation delivered by a latitudinal migration of the Southern Westerly Winds belt, highlighting the role of local and regional climate feedbacks in modulating ice mass changes in the southern mid-latitudes.

Vapor-Buoyancy Feedback in an Idealized GCM

Abstract Humid air is lighter than dry air at a given temperature and pressure, as the molecular weight of water vapor is less than that of dry air. This effect is known as vapor buoyancy (VB). Although this effect is a well-understood consequence of the ideal gas law, its influence on climate has been under-studied. This study investigates VB’s influence on atmospheric temperature, radiation, and clouds. In mechanism-denial experiments, we remove VB from the dynamics and parameterizations of an idealized general circulation model (GCM). These experiments show that VB warms the tropical free troposphere by approximately 1 K in an Earth-like climate, and the magnitude of this effect increases with warming. This additional atmospheric warming causes greater outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to be emitted as the climate warms. This constitutes a negative climate feedback which attains a magnitude of 0.1 to 0.2 W/m2/K in the tropics. The simulations further show that, despite warming the atmosphere, VB does not introduce a countervailing positive water vapor feedback. Finally, we find that VB makes the net cloud feedback in the model more negative than it otherwise would be, reinforcing the clear-sky feedback.

Impact of severe drought on biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions from Sphagnum mosses in boreal peatlands

Climate change and the associated increased frequency of extreme weather events are likely to alter the emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from boreal peatlands. Hydrologically sensitive Sphagnum mosses are keystone species in boreal peatland ecosystems that are known to emit various BVOCs. However, it is not known how their emissions respond to seasonal droughts. In this study, we quantified the effect of severe drought, and subsequent recovery, on the BVOC emissions from Sphagnum mosses using mesocosms originating from wet open and naturally drier treed boreal fens and bogs. Here we report the emissions of 30 detected BVOCs, of which isoprene was the most abundant with an average flux rate of 5.6 μg m−2 h−1 (range 0–31.9 μg m−2 h−1). The experimental 43-day ecohydrological drought reduced total BVOC and isoprene emissions. In addition, in mesocosms originating from bogs, sesquiterpene emissions decreased with the drought, while the emissions of green leaf volatiles were induced. Sesquiterpene emissions remained low even six weeks after rewetting, indicating a long and limited recovery from the drought. Our results further imply that long-term exposure to deep water tables does not decrease sensitivity of Sphagnum to an extreme drought; we did not detect differences in the emission rates or drought responses between Sphagna originating from wet open and naturally drier treed habitats. Yet, the differences between fen and bog originating Sphagna indicate local variability in the BVOC quality changes following drought, potentially altering the climate feedback of boreal peatland BVOC emissions.

A synthesized field survey database of vegetation and active-layer properties for the Alaskan tundra (1972–2020)

Abstract. Studies in recent decades have shown strong evidence of physical and biological changes in the Arctic tundra, largely in response to rapid rates of warming. Given the important implications of these changes for ecosystem services, hydrology, surface energy balance, carbon budgets, and climate feedbacks, research on the trends and patterns of these changes is becoming increasingly important and can help better constrain estimates of local, regional, and global impacts as well as inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite this great need, scientific understanding of tundra ecology and change remains limited, largely due to the inaccessibility of this region and less intensive studies compared to other terrestrial biomes. A synthesis of existing datasets from past field studies can make field data more accessible and open up possibilities for collaborative research as well as for investigating and informing future studies. Here, we synthesize field datasets of vegetation and active-layer properties from the Alaskan tundra, one of the most well-studied tundra regions. Given the potentially increasing intensive fire regimes in the tundra, fire history and severity attributes have been added to data points where available. The resulting database is a resource that future investigators can employ to analyze spatial and temporal patterns in soil, vegetation, and fire disturbance-related environmental variables across the Alaskan tundra. This database, titled the Synthesized Alaskan Tundra Field Database (SATFiD), can be accessed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC) for Biogeochemical Dynamics (Chen et al., 2023: https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2177).

Influence of mountain orientation on precipitation isotopes in the westerly belt of Eurasia

Mountains have a significant impact on the transport path of water vapour and local meteorological variations. Therefore, understanding the influence mechanism of mountains on stable isotopes of precipitation is essential. In this study, we analyzed the precipitation stable isotope data within the Westerlies in the Eurasian continent. The results indicate the following: (1) East-west-oriented mountain ranges and plains play a “channelling role” in facilitating the inland penetration of westerly moisture, with this effect being more pronounced in the northern part of the Alps. Conversely, north-south-oriented mountain ranges and plateaus act as a “barrier” to westerly moisture. (2) Mountains influence stable isotopes of precipitation primarily by altering the water vapour movement paths and regulating local meteorological factors. (3) The “altitude effect” is the most common mechanism through which mountains affect local meteorological elements reflected in stable isotopes of precipitation. Furthermore, we anticipate that with global climate warming, the interaction and feedback between mountains and climate will become even more complex. This aspect deserves consideration in future research.

Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires.

More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent extreme wildfire events. As fuel stock, the role of vegetation and its phenology changes in wildfire dynamics, however is not fully appreciated. Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations, we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) potentially acts to escalate subsequent wildfires, with an increase in the global average burned fraction of 0.021% (∼2.20 Mha) for every additional day of PPT advancement. Satellite observations and Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is likely due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with the climate feedback arising from earlier PPT. Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably. Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change, the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a potentially pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires.

Climate feedbacks from coastal erosion

Climate feedbacks from coastal erosion

Short-Term Groundwater Level Fluctuations Drive Subsurface Redox Variability.

As global change processes modify the extent and functions of terrestrial-aquatic interfaces, the variability of critical and dynamic transitional zones between wetlands and uplands increases. However, it is still unclear how fluctuating water levels at these dynamic boundaries alter groundwater biogeochemical cycling. Here, we used high-temporal resolution data along gradients from wetlands to uplands and during fluctuating water levels at freshwater coastal areas to capture spatiotemporal patterns of groundwater redox potential (Eh). We observed that topography influences groundwater Eh that is higher in uplands than in wetlands; however, the high variability within TAI zones challenged the establishment of distinct redox zonation. Declining water levels generally decreased Eh, but most locations exhibited significant Eh variability, which is associated with rare instances of short-term water level fluctuations, introducing oxygen. The Eh-oxygen relationship showed distinct hysteresis patterns, reflecting redox poising capacity at higher Eh, maintaining more oxidizing states longer than the dissolved oxygen presence. Surprisingly, we observed more frequent oxidizing states in transitional areas and wetlands than in uplands. We infer that occasional oxygen entering specific wetland-upland boundaries acts as critical biogeochemical control points. High-resolution data can capture such rare yet significant biogeochemical instances, supporting redox-informed models and advancing the predictability of climate change feedback.

Leveraging atmospheric moisture recycling in Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries for irrigation and afforestation planning

Effective irrigation planning is crucial for sustainable agricultural development and ecosystem restoration projects in arid regions. With respect to ambitious greening initiatives, Saudi Arabia is establishing a national strategy toward a more sustainable and eco-friendly future not only for itself but also for the broader Middle East region. Thus, comprehensively understanding the water cycle in the region is essential to identify the most suitable target locations for afforestation and reforestation while considering the potential role of irrigation. Herein, in addition to traditional pedoclimatic factors, we introduce a complementary consideration—“irrigation recycling.” Building on the well-established concept of atmospheric moisture recycling and taking advantage from an atmospheric trajectory dataset, we track the path of evaporated water from current or potential irrigated sites to the location where the evaporated water eventually falls as precipitation. Our analysis offers two key benefits. First, it helps pinpoint the regions in which and the periods during which water recycling is maximum within the country, aiding more precise calculations of the investment return value for irrigation infrastructures. Second, it helps identify the land-use change patterns that contribute to international efforts such as drought mitigation in East Africa as an example. We found that one-third of the actual precipitation in the current Saudi irrigated sites originated from evapotranspiration over land, mainly from Saudi Arabia and surrounding countries. Interestingly, most of the evapotranspiration from these irrigated sites will eventually fall somewhere over land (primarily in Iran). Controlling the seasonality and spatial distribution of the future irrigation expansion will allow controlling the atmospheric moisture recirculation in Saudi Arabia and nearby drought-prone regions such as Eastern Africa. The outcomes of this study will be the subject of future integrated assessments to account for the climatic feedbacks of the land-use change scenarios. At present, they provide crucial insights to support the decision-making process surrounding the Saudi and Middle East Green Initiatives. Further, the presented methodology offers a pragmatic framework that can be applied to similar greening projects for other regions, making it a viable and valuable approach for global sustainability programs.

Ice Sheet‐Albedo Feedback Estimated From Most Recent Deglaciation

AbstractIce sheet feedbacks are underrepresented in model assessments of climate sensitivity and their magnitudes are still poorly constrained. We combine a recently published record of Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) with existing reconstructions of temperature, atmospheric composition, and sea level to estimate both the magnitude and timescale of the ice sheet‐albedo feedback since the Last Glacial Maximum. This facilitates the first opportunity to quantify this feedback over the most recent deglaciation using a proxy data‐driven approach. We find the ice sheet‐albedo feedback to be amplifying, increasing the total climate feedback parameter by 42% and reaching an equilibrium magnitude of 0.55 Wm−2K−1, with a 66% confidence interval of 0.45–0.63 Wm−2K−1. The timescale to equilibrium is estimated as 3.6 ka (66% confidence: 1.9–5.5 ka). These results provide new evidence for the timescale and magnitude of the amplifying ice sheet‐albedo feedback that will drive anthropogenic warming for millennia to come.

Geochemistry and clay mineralogy of shales in the Sulu Orogenic Belt, East China: suggestion for continental weathering during an Early Cretaceous hyperthermal interval

ABSTRACT Understanding past weathering–climate feedback mechanisms under greenhouse conditions has significance for guiding the development of climate mitigation strategies. The continental paleoweathering state of Early Cretaceous shales in the Sulu Orogenic Belt of East China during a hyperthermal interval related to oceanic anoxic event 1a (OAE1a) was investigated via geochemical and clay mineralogical analyses of shale samples. The resulting diagrams of ternary 15Al2O3–Zr–300TiO2 discrimination, Th/Sc and Zr/Sc show that the geochemical composition was mainly controlled by source composition. This is supported by observations of low Zr contents, high indexes of compositional variability (ICV; > 1), and micropetrological characteristics. All samples showed narrow SiO2/Al2O3 and (Fe2O3 + MgO)/Al2O3 ranges that were within the predicted weathering trends of the ternary A-CN-K diagram, indicating that the shale geochemistry was not influenced by silicification and K-metasomatism. The chondrite-normalized rare-earth-element pattern suggests that all samples had the same felsic igneous parent rock. The geochemistry of whole rocks and their silicate fractions indicates that the shale had low chemical indexes of alteration (CIA) but high ICV values compared to post-Archean Australian Shale, indicating low sediment maturity and extremely weak chemical weathering in the source terrane and/or sedimentary basin under hot-dry conditions. Moreover, the clay minerals in the shale were mainly illite, suggesting low mineral weathering. Thus, during the OAE1a-related hyperthermal interval, chemical weathering was relatively weak in some mid-latitude arid inland areas. This may be mainly due to aridification decreasing water–rock reactions. Chemostratigraphic analysis suggests that the CIA, Ga/Rb, and Rb/Sr values of shales from the upper strata of the Yangjiazhuang and Shuinan formations were greater than those from lower strata. Moreover, the opposite trend in K2O/Al2O3 ratios was found. These indices suggest gradual increases in chemical weathering as the climate changed from hot-dry to warm-humid. In contrast, proxy indices of shale from the Zhifengzhuang Formation showed the opposite trend, suggesting a gradual decrease in chemical weathering as the climate changed from warm-humid to hot-dry. Considering the composition of the clay minerals, it is speculated that continental weathering was dependent on atmospheric humidity rather than temperature under the extreme greenhouse conditions, resulting in ineffective climate regulation by chemical weathering. This comprehensive study advances our understanding of the weathering–climate feedback mechanism under greenhouse regimes.

Escalating Wildfires in Siberia Driven by Climate Feedbacks Under a Warming Arctic in the 21st Century

AbstractSiberian wildfire is of paramount importance in the carbon cycle and climate change as it is a major disturbance in the pan‐Arctic ecosystems. In recent decades, the Siberian wildfire regime has been shifting; however, less is known about its process‐based feedback mechanisms. By integrating in‐situ and satellite observational data sets as well as chemistry‐climate coupled modeling, we find that central Siberia has featured the most prominent wildfire escalation during the past two decades, which is closely related to hydrological drought with decreasing rainfall and drying soil under a fast‐warming Arctic. Furthermore, fire‐emitted aerosols compound the increasing wildfires via serving as cloud condensation nuclei and suppressing precipitation, forming self‐amplifying feedback. As the Arctic warming is projected to continue, wildfires are estimated to more than double by the end of this century. This work highlights the great importance of fire risk management based on a fundamental scientific understanding of the complex climate system.

Linkage between temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition and microbial communities depends on soil fractions.

The magnitude of terrestrial carbon (C)-climate feedback largely depends on the temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition (Q10). However, our understanding of determinants of Q10 for SOM fractions such as particulate and mineral-associated organic matter (POM and MAOM, respectively) is still inadequate. Particularly, it remains unclear whether microbial effects on Q10 are fraction-dependent, which induces large uncertainties in projecting soil C dynamics. Here, we conducted large-scale topsoil sampling on the Tibetan Plateau, in combination with SOM fractionation and 300-day laboratory incubation to assess SOM fraction-dependent linkages between Q10 and microbial properties. We found that compared with MAOM, POM had larger Q10 and greater microbial diversity, and also structured distinct microbial communities as well as their co-occurrence patterns. Furthermore, associations of Q10 with microbial properties differed between the two SOM fractions. Bacterial community composition and relative abundance of bacterial keystone taxa affected Q10 for POM and MAOM respectively, while bacterial alpha diversity showed opposite relationships with Q10 for POM and MAOM. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating SOM fraction-dependent microbial properties and their linkages with Q10 into Earth system models to accurately predict terrestrial C-climate feedback.

ICESat-2 Shows Sea Ice Leads Have Little Overall Effects on the Arctic Cloudiness in Cold Months

Abstract The effect of leads in Arctic sea ice on clouds is a potentially important climate feedback. We use observations of clouds and leads from the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) to study the effects of leads on clouds. Both leads and clouds are strongly forced by synoptic weather conditions, with more clouds over both leads and sea ice at lower sea level pressure. Contrary to previous studies, we find that the overall lead effect on low-level cloud cover is −0.02, a weak cloud dissipating effect in cold months, after the synoptic forcing influence is removed. This is due to compensating contributions from the cloud dissipating effect by newly frozen leads under high pressure systems and the cloud enhancing effect by newly open leads under low pressure system. The lack of proper representation of lead effect on clouds in current climate models and reanalyses may impact their performance in winter months, such as in sea ice growth and Arctic cyclone development.

Thermal sensitivity of soil microbial carbon use efficiency across forest biomes

Understanding the large-scale pattern of soil microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) and its temperature sensitivity (CUET) is critical for understanding soil carbon–climate feedback. We used the 18O-H2O tracer method to quantify CUE and CUET along a north-south forest transect. Climate was the primary factor that affected CUE and CUET, predominantly through direct pathways, then by altering soil properties, carbon fractions, microbial structure and functions. Negative CUET (CUE decreases with measuring temperature) in cold forests (mean annual temperature lower than 10 °C) and positive CUET (CUE increases with measuring temperature) in warm forests (mean annual temperature greater than 10 °C) suggest that microbial CUE optimally operates at their adapted temperature. Overall, the plasticity of microbial CUE and its temperature sensitivity alter the feedback of soil carbon to climate warming; that is, a climate-adaptive microbial community has the capacity to reduce carbon loss from soil matrices under corresponding favorable climate conditions.

Land-Use Feedback under Global Warming—A Transition from Radiative to Hydrological Feedback Regime

Abstract This study examines the effects of land-use (LU) change on regional climate, comparing historical and future scenarios using seven climate models from phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Land Use Model Intercomparison Project experiments. LU changes are evaluated relative to land-use conditions during the preindustrial climate. Using the Community Earth System Model, version 2–Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) experiment, we distinguish LU impacts from natural climate variability. We assess LU impact locally by comparing the impacts of climate change in neighboring areas with and without LU changes. Further, we conduct CESM2 experiments with and without LU changes to investigate LU-related climate processes. A multimodel analysis reveals a shift in LU-induced climate impacts, from cooling in the past to warming in the future climate across midlatitude regions. For instance, in North America, LU’s effect on air temperature changes from −0.24° ± 0.18°C historically to 0.62° ± 0.27°C in the future during the boreal summer. The CESM2-LE shows a decrease in LU-driven cooling from −0.92° ± 0.09°C in the past to −0.09° ± 0.09°C in future boreal summers in North America. A hydroclimatic perspective linking LU and climate feedback indicates LU changes causing soil moisture drying in the midlatitude regions. This contrasts with hydrology-only views showing wetter soil conditions due to LU changes. Furthermore, global warming causes widespread drying of soil moisture across various regions. Midlatitude regions shift from a historically wet regime to a water-limited transitional regime in the future climate. This results in reduced evapotranspiration, weakening LU-driven cooling in future climate projections. A strong linear relationship exists between soil moisture and evaporative fraction in midlatitudes. Significance Statement Land–atmosphere feedback involving soil moisture can increase local temperature and affect how land-use (LU) change impacts manifest in a warming climate. Conversely, an increased surface reflectance due to LU change can decrease local temperature in the midlatitude regions. Further, the LU change signal is often mixed with the internal climate variability, making it harder to separate. This study uses a novel technique to separate LU change impact from other climate forcing in the latest generation of climate and Earth system models. In the future climate, soil moisture drying lessens the cooling impact. A large-ensemble climate experiment analysis confirms a significant weakening of the LU-driven cooling impact in the midlatitudes. Both LU and climate changes exacerbate soil moisture drying, leading to a shift toward a water-limited system where hydrological feedback becomes more influential than radiative feedback.

Contrasting carbon cycle responses of semiarid abandoned farmland to simulated warmer-drier and warmer-wetter climates

Rewilding abandoned farmlands provides a nature-based climate solution via carbon (C) offsetting; however, the C-cycle–climate feedback in such restored ecosystems is poorly understood. Therefore, we conducted a 2-year field experiment in Loess Plateau, China, to determine the impacts of warming (∼1.4 °C) and altered precipitation (±25 %, ±50 %, and ambient), alone or in concert on soil C pools and associated C fluxes. Experimental warming significantly enhanced soil respiration without affecting the ecosystem net C uptake and soil C storage; these variables tended to increase along the manipulated precipitation gradient. Their interactions increased ecosystem net C uptake (synergism) but decreased soil respiration and soil C accumulation (antagonism) compared with a single warming or altered precipitation. Additionally, most variables related to the C cycle tended to be more responsive to increased precipitation, but the ecosystem net C uptake responded intensely to warming and decreased precipitation. Overall, ecosystem net C uptake and soil C storage increased by 94.4 % and 8.2 %, respectively, under the warmer-wetter scenario; however, phosphorus deficiency restricted soil C accumulation under these climatic conditions. By contrast, ecosystem net C uptake and soil C storage decreased by 56.6 % and 13.6 %, respectively, when exposed to the warmer-drier climate, intensifying its tendency toward a C source. Therefore, the C sink function of semiarid abandoned farmland was unsustainable. Our findings emphasize the need for management of post-abandonment regeneration to sustain ecosystem C sequestration in the context of climate change, aiding policymakers in the development of C-neutral routes in abandoned regions.