Consequences Of Climate Change Research Articles

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF LAND COVER AND LAND USE CHANGE ON URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE IN ABUJA, NIGERIA: A CASE STUDY FROM 2017 TO 2022

The remarkable feature of rapid urbanisation, which has fundamentally altered the distribution of land cover and land use (LULC), is what sets the contemporary era apart. The impact of these modifications on the resilience of Abuja’s metropolitan infrastructure from 2017 to 2022 is examined in this study. Our study examined the dynamic changes in LULC using information from remote sensing, geospatial analysis software, and land cover categorization techniques. The findings indicate major changes in Abuja’s topography, including a decrease in the number of water bodies, a decrease in the number of trees, the expansion of urban areas, changes in agricultural land use, and fluctuations in the amount of grazing land. The previously mentioned changes have significant consequences for urban infrastructure resilience, affecting various sectors such as water supply, transportation, housing, utilities, and food distribution systems. The infrastructure supporting water supply and sanitation may be severely stretched as the number of water bodies decreases, affecting the quantity and quality of accessible water supplies. As metropolitan areas expand, greater strain is placed on transportation infrastructure, exacerbating traffic congestion and complicating road maintenance ifficulties. Changes in agricultural land use can have an impact on food production and distribution, hence affecting food security. Deforestation can cause ecological deterioration, affecting a variety of aspects such as temperature regulation, biological diversity, and atmospheric purity. Adaptive approaches, green infrastructure, and adopting sustainable urban design can all strengthen the resilience of urban infrastructure, according to this study. The significance of renewable energy adoption, community participation, green building laws, the establishment of public-private partnerships, integrated water resource management, and data-driven decision-making is emphasised. Improving legal frameworks that prioritise resilience and sustainability is critical. It is critical to have a complete grasp of the complicated links between changes in LULC, and the resilience of urban infrastructure in order to enable educated urban design and decision-making processes. Policymakers and urban planners may address and minimise the negative consequences of climate change while improving the overall quality of life in cities by using sustainable development practises. The findings of this study have the potential to dramatically improve Abuja’s people’s well-being and sustainability, especially given the variety of urban difficulties they encounter.

Constraints on habitat possibilities: overwintering of a micro snail species facing climate change consequences in a harsh environment

The aim of this study was to establish the overwintering strategy and cold tolerance in V. moulinsiana. We observed a seasonal change in the SCP measurements, indicating that the species' preparation for winter results in a decrease in the SCP. Along with the results obtained from the frost survival experiment, this suggests the presence of a freezing avoidance strategy in this species. It overwinters in a buffered zone, separated from harsh conditions by a layer of leaf litter and snow, which protects it from temperature fluctuations and severe frost. The results of our research may indicate a possible poor resistance of these snails to snow-free conditions. Therefore, climate change-induced alterations could profoundly impact this species, especially considering the predicted disappearance of snow before the frost.

Impacts of Photovoltaic Façades on the Urban Thermal Microclimate and Outdoor Thermal Comfort: Simulation-Based Analysis

Cities face the consequences of climate change, specifically the urban heat island (UHI) effect, which detrimentally affects human health. In this regard, deploying PV modules in urban locales prompts inquiry into the impact of energy-active building components on the adjacent thermal microclimate and human thermal comfort. A twofold simulation-based methodology addresses this subject: First, the implications of façade-integrated photovoltaics on the urban thermal microclimate are investigated using a case study in Munich, Germany. Secondly, a parameter study allows us to gain further insights into the relevance of several parameters on the microthermal impact. The simulation results show a daytime heating effect of photovoltaics on the mean radiant temperature of up to +5.47 K in summer and +6.72 K in winter. The increased mean radiant temperature leads to an elevation of the Universal Thermal Climate Index of up to +1.46 K in summer and +2.21 K in winter. During night-time, no increase in both metrics is identified—hence, nocturnal recovery as a key element for human health is not affected. Despite extended human exposure to thermal heat stress in summer, PV façades improve the annual outdoor thermal comfort autonomy by 0.91% due to lower cold stress in winter. The higher PV efficiencies and lower albedo of the reference building surface lower the heating effect. However, with the current efficiencies, PV façades consistently lead to heating of the surrounding thermal microclimate in summer and lower the outdoor thermal comfort.

Metropolitan Flood Risk Characterization Using Remote Sensing, GIS, and Fuzzy Logic (RS-GIS-Fl) Approach: Suleja, Nigeria

Climate change exacerbates extreme events like floods, droughts, heatwaves, cyclones, hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires, affecting human populations and environments worldwide. Despite varying impacts across regions, no area is immune to climate change consequences. To mitigate these effects, this study employs Geographic Information System (GIS), Remote Sensing, and Fuzzy Logic System to map flood vulnerability zones in Suleja Local Government, Niger State, North Central Nigeria. The research integrates satellite and GIS datasets to prepare Suleja's Flood Zonation Mapping. Rainfall data from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMET), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHRPS), Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and parameters like Slope, Elevation, Nearness to Water Bodies, Land Use Land Cover, and Drainage Density are utilized to identify flood vulnerability. The flood vulnerability map categorizes the area into five zones: Very Low Risk (40.9%), Low Risk (18.9%), Medium Risk (27.6%), High Risk (7.1%), and Very High Risk (5.5%). Considering the stochastic nature of flood characteristics, this study emphasizes the importance of integrating hydro-climatic and physical catchment parameters, leveraging bias-adjusted satellite data to minimize uncertainty. Effective flood management requires quantifying risk, susceptibility, and hazard components to establish a robust control framework. This research contributes to the development of data-driven flood mitigation strategies in vulnerable regions like Suleja. By harnessing GIS, Remote Sensing, and Fuzzy Logic System, policymakers and stakeholders can make informed decisions to protect communities and infrastructure from flood risks.

Deterioration of steel structures due to corrosion considering the global effects of climate change

The randomness of atmospheric conditions is among the key contributing factors that affect the ability to accurately predict the corrosion growth in steel structures. Climate change has the potential to alter the long-term characteristics of these factors over the lifespan of steel structures, both those already existing and those newly built. The impact of climate variability on the stochastic nature of atmospheric variables, which greatly influence corrosion conditions, can add complexity to corrosion predictions in these structures. This paper introduces an integrated framework to quantify the impact of climate change on corrosion rates of steel structures worldwide. It considers the changes in environmental conditions, specifically temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and their effects on atmospheric corrosion. Global Climate Models are employed to evaluate the long-term impacts of climate change on these environmental conditions. An analytical model for predicting corrosion rate is integrated with climate change models to predict alterations in the corrosion rates of steel components relative to historical conditions. This paper also discusses the impact of climate change on the variations of these climatic parameters and offers a comparison between historical data and projected conditions across the globe. The results indicate that the effect of climate change on the corrosion rate depends on the considered region. While regions such as Australia, North America and Europe see an increase, others such as Asia and Africa observe a decline. Notably, all oceans, especially the Antarctic and Arctic, experience a significant increase in corrosion by the end of the century.

Cellulolytic potential of mangrove bacteria Bacillus haynesii DS7010 and the effect of anthropogenic and environmental stressors on bacterial survivability and cellulose metabolism

Cellulose degrading bacterial diversity of Bhitarkanika mangrove ecosystem, India, was uncovered and the cellulose degradation mechanism in Bacillus haynesii DS7010 under the modifiers such as pH (pCO2), salinity and lead (Pb) was elucidated in the present study. The abundance of cellulose degrading heterotrophic bacteria was found to be higher in mangrove sediment than in water. The most potential strain, B. haynesii DS7010 showed the presence of endoglucanase, exoglucanase and β-glucosidase with the maximum degradation recorded at 48 h of incubation, with 1% substrate concentration at 41 °C incubation temperature. Two glycoside hydrolase genes, celA and celB were confirmed in this bacterium. 3D structure prediction of the translated CelA and CelB proteins showed maximum similarities with glycoside hydrolase 48 (GH48) and glycoside hydrolase 5 (GH5) respectively. Native PAGE followed by zymogram assay unveiled the presence of eight isoforms of cellulase ranged from 78 kDa to 245 kDa. Among the stressors, most adverse effect was observed under Pb stress at 1400 ppm concentration, followed by pH at pH 4. This was indicated by prolonged lag phase growth, higher reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, lower enzyme activity and downregulation of celA and celB gene expressions. Salinity augmented bacterial metabolism up to 3% NaCl concentration. Mangrove leaf litter degradation by B. haynesii DS7010 indicated a substantial reduction in cellulolytic potential of the bacterium in response to the synergistic effect of the stressors. Microcosm set up with the stressors exhibited 0.97% decrease in total carbon (C%) and 0.02% increase in total nitrogen (N%) after 35 d of degradation while under natural conditions, the reduction in C and the increase in N were 4.05% and 0.2%, respectively. The findings of the study suggest the cellulose degradation mechanism of a mangrove bacterium and its resilience to the future consequences of environmental pollution and climate change.

An optimized NARX-based model for predicting thermal dynamics and heatwaves in rivers

The thermal dynamics within river ecosystems represent critical areas of study due to their profound impact on overall aquatic health. With the rising prevalence of heatwaves in rivers, a consequence of climate change, it is imperative to deepen our understanding through comprehensive research efforts. Despite this urgency, there remains a noticeable dearth in studies aimed at refining modeling techniques to precisely characterize the duration and intensity of these events. In response to this gap, the present study endeavors to augment the NARX-based model (Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous Inputs) to enhance predictive capabilities regarding thermal dynamics and river heatwaves. The optimized NARX-based model included the Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm, which allows fine-tuning the number of NARX hidden nodes and lagged input/target values, and the Bayesian Regularization (BR) backpropagation algorithm to improve the NARX calibration process. A long-term dataset spanning from 1991 to 2021, encompassing 18 rivers across the expansive Vistula River Basin, one of Europe's largest river systems, was employed for this study. The performance of the BO-NARX-BR model was compared with that of the widely utilized air2stream model for modeling river water temperature (RWT). The results unequivocally demonstrated the superior performance of the NARX-based model across the calibration and validation periods, and four heatwave years. In the context of river heatwaves, the study revealed an escalating frequency and intensity within the Vistula River Basin. Furthermore, the NARX-based model exhibited superior proficiency in characterizing river heatwaves compared to the air2stream model. This study, as the inaugural examination of river heatwaves in Poland and one of the few globally, furnishes crucial reference points for subsequent research endeavors on this phenomenon.

The Hadley circulation in a changing climate.

The Hadley circulation (HC) is a global-scale atmospheric feature with air descending in the subtropics and ascending in the tropics, which plays a fundamental role in Earth's climate because it transports energy polewards and moisture equatorwards. Theoretically, as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, the HC is expected to expand polewards, while indications on the HC strength are equivocal, as weakening and strengthening are expected in response to different mechanisms. In fact, there is a general agreement among reanalyses and climate simulations that the HC has significantly widened in the last four decades and it will continue widening in the future, but there is no consensus on past and future changes of the HC strength. Substantial uncertainties are produced by the effects of natural variability, structural deficiencies in climate models and reanalyses, and the influence of other forcing factors, such as anthropogenic aerosols, black carbon, and stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. The global HC can be decomposed into three regional HCs, associated with ascending motion above Equatorial Africa, the Maritime Continent, and Equatorial America, which have evolved differently during the last decades. Climate projections suggest a generalized expansion in the Southern Hemisphere, but a complex regional expansion/contraction pattern in the NorthernHemisphere.

Climate Change as a New Factor of International Relations

This article explores the escalating impact of climate change and the global green transition on international relations, particularly in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement in 2015. While physical risks stemming directly from climate change consequences are a concern, the rise of transition risks associated with the global green shift poses significant threats to societies, political systems, and economies. The current emissions reduction targets outlined in the Paris Agreement are deemed inadequate to address the mounting physical risks, underscoring the imperative of enhancing states’ climate security. Transition risks are intricately linked to the fragmentation of global politics, driven by varying climate ambitions and disagreements on decarbonization methods among states. Fault lines emerge based on factors such as fossil fuel abundance, states’ positions in energy geopolitics, socio-economic development levels, utilization of green transition opportunities, and participation in international climate agreements. In this context, Russia confronts numerous risks, compelling the nation to articulate and advocate its unique vision of decarbonization while fostering alliances with non-Western states in this critical domain.

What if there is no further south to go: Assessing the vulnerability of Nacella species to climate change

In the current context of climate change, southern South America and the Southern Ocean are undergoing profound environmental transformations that impose challenges to marine species. Shifts in species distribution ranges will occur through expansions or contractions of the range edges. Invertebrates such as Nacella spp., that being template-cold water species, will be more vulnerable to increasing temperature and will therefore suffer range contraction as temperatures increase southward. To understand the future of this sensitive group of gastropods, the potential impact of future climate on the distribution ranges of six species of the genus Nacella was studied using ensemble ecological niche models and representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that all the species studied will undergo a shift in their distribution in response to the projected changes in climate with a decline in habitat suitability. Particularly, the species will lose suitable areas mainly in the northern edge of their current distribution. Nevertheless, the species may not change their distribution equally. Our study suggests that N. magellanica, N. clypeater, and N. concinna appear to exhibit vulnerability, albeit with potentially lesser impact. Nacella magellanica is the limpet that shows the least distribution change in 2100. Both species, N. clypeater and N. concinna, will move southward while the Antarctic species will expand their distribution to other Antarctic areas. The most significant impact is expected for three Magellanic species (N. deaurata, N. flammea, and N. mytilina), currently distributed across the southern tip of South America. With restricted geographical ranges, these species face increased vulnerability to habitat loss as they cannot migrate southward. This comprehensive analysis offers invaluable insights into how Nacella species could tackle the challenges of climate change. The emphasis on specific species' vulnerabilities and the differential impacts on their distribution enhances our understanding of the potential consequences of climate change in the studied region. Furthermore, it will aid in formulating effective conservation and management strategies to protect Antarctic and sub-Antarctic ecosystems.

Climate change and the future of medicinal plants research

Due to their pharmaceutical properties and secondary metabolites, medicinal plants have played a crucial role in alleviating human suffering from various illnesses, disorders, and diseases. Along with other natural and artificial disasters, rapid climate change is one of the critical causes of the decline in wild medicinal plant species. Therefore, considering their significance in traditional medicine practices and economic value, investigating the potential consequences of climate change on medicinal plants is specifically relevant. This review aimed to investigate the diversity of species of medicinal plants within current climate scenarios. Additionally, it assesses the potential implications of climate change on the projected distribution of these species in subsequent scenarios and evaluates the possible impacts of these changes on the trajectory of future research in medicinal plants. The distribution and life cycles of all vegetation, including medicinal plants, are significantly impacted by climate change. Additionally, future climate scenarios have been shown to affect the physiological performance of all vegetation worldwide. Various aspects related to climate change and its repercussions on medicinal plants are explored including the impact of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) levels, the effect of low temperature (Cold), climate warming, drought on the production of secondary metabolites, impact of threats on medicinal plants, and phenological changes. Each of these environmental factors influences the productivity and quality of different products and components of medicinal plants, either positively or negatively. Consequently, there is excellent complexity surrounding how climate change affects medicinal plants. Thus, for human survival on Earth, future researchers should carefully examine the interactions of various direct and indirect causes and their corresponding effects. Keywords: Secondary metabolites, Climate change, medicinal plants, Phenology.

A fast physically-guided emulator of MATSIRO land surface model

Current land surface models are useful tools to study the effects of global climate change on hydrological variables. However, these models tend to be relatively computationally expensive to run. This can hinder their widespread application in large ensemble modelling or uncertainty quantification studies. Therefore, it is necessary to build fast reduced-order emulators that approximate the dynamics of the original models.Here we build a fast physically based emulator that approximates the MATSIRO land surface model. The emulator equations are chosen based on review of the original MATSIRO equations, and on preliminary data analysis. The emulator uses minimal atmospheric input, and models snow water equivalent, wetland water storage, upper layer soil moisture, and total runoff on the daily time scale at 0.5° spatial resolution. Emulator parameters are optimized by fitting the emulator output to the original MATSIRO model. Parallelization allows lightning-fast computation of land surface evolution on the decadal scale. The emulator can work on the range of spatial scales, from local to regional to global. We validate simulated output with respect to the original MATSIRO model, and discuss global maps of parameter estimates. The emulator achieves excellent performance for snow water equivalent and wetland water storage. There are more challenges in simulating upper layer soil moisture and runoff, including systematic runoff underestimation over northern extratropics. We find that 25 years of training data are sufficient for reasonably fitting the emulator. The emulator can be further refined and coupled with river routing and/or economic models in future studies.

Early Detection of Extreme Storm Tide Events Using Multimodal Data Processing

Sea-level rise is a well-known consequence of climate change. Several studies have estimated the social and economic impact of the increase in extreme flooding. An efficient way to mitigate its consequences is the development of a flood alert and prediction system, based on high-resolution numerical models and robust sensing networks. However, current models use various simplifying assumptions that compromise accuracy to ensure solvability within a reasonable timeframe, hindering more regular and cost-effective forecasts for various locations along the shoreline. To address these issues, this work proposes a hybrid model for multimodal data processing that combines physics-based numerical simulations, data obtained from a network of sensors, and satellite images to provide refined wave and sea-surface height forecasts, with real results obtained in a critical location within the Port of Santos (the largest port in Latin America). Our approach exhibits faster convergence than data-driven models while achieving more accurate predictions. Moreover, the model handles irregularly sampled time series and missing data without the need for complex preprocessing mechanisms or data imputation while keeping low computational costs through a combination of time encoding, recurrent and graph neural networks. Enabling raw sensor data to be easily combined with existing physics-based models opens up new possibilities for accurate extreme storm tide events forecast systems that enhance community safety and aid policymakers in their decision-making processes.

Agro-climatic zone-wise drought hazards in Karnataka under historical and future climate scenarios

This study performed the spatio-temporal analysis of drought hazards across the agro-climatic zones (ACZs) of Karnataka under historical and future climate scenarios. The India Meteorological Department’s high-resolution gridded data for1989-2019 was used for historical drought occurrence analysis. Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment ensemble data of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for analysing future drought hazards in the near (2031-2060) and end term (2061-2099) periods. The standardised precipitation index (SPI) was used to calculate the frequency of droughts at different accumulation periods of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Subsequently, the ACZ-wise drought hazard index (DHI) was calculated and mapped geospatially using ArcGIS. The results indicated that moderate drought events have the highest frequencies of occurrence, followed by severe and extreme drought events for all accumulation periods. During 1989-2019, 54.8%, 28.3% and 16.7% of droughts were moderate, severe, and extreme, respectively. An increase of 2.6% and 2.4% in the frequency of moderate droughts is projected under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the end term. Under both historical and future climate scenarios, a high frequency of extreme droughts was observed in the long accumulation periods (SPI-9 and SPI-12), whereas the frequency of moderate droughts was observed to be high in the short accumulation periods (SPI-1 and SPI-3). Under the historical scenario, the frequency of droughts in the extreme category was high in the southern transition, central dry, and north eastern dry zones, severe category in the northern dry, southern transition, and coastal zones, and moderate category in the north transition, hill, and southern dry zones. Among the 30 districts of Karnataka, Chitradurga, Udupi, Tumakuru, Ballari, Koppala, Raichuruand Gadaga districts have very high DHI. This study sheds light on the potential consequences of climate change on drought scenarios in the Karnataka state’s agro-climate zones and urges for zone specific drought adaptation and mitigation strategies to strengthen the State resilience.

Mind the gap between the economic effect of climate change and the reality

Climate change increases its severity day by day and poses a great threat to our world. Climate change problems almost cause the global economic system to be questioned. This issue is also very important for China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey, which are expressed as E7 (developing) countries. Climate change forecasts for many countries predict that temperatures will rise as precipitation increases or decreases. Technological improvements are predicted to play an important role in mitigating and adapting to the negative consequences of climate change. This study aims to determine the effect of climate change on the economic growth of E7 countries between the years 2004-2021 using panel data methods. Analysis was done with the Stata 15 program. In the study, firstly, the literature on climate change and economic growth is included. Afterwards, the economic consequences of climate change are discussed. In the following section, solutions that will be effective in combating climate change are explained. Then, the empirical analysis and the obtained findings were included and the study was concluded with the conclusion and evaluation. All variables are statistically significant. Accordingly, while temperature and precipitation negatively affect GDP; Urbanization, population growth and HDI positively affect GDP. According to the consequences of the analysis, it was concluded that climate change negatively affected economic growth.

CO2 -ის დაჭერის პროცესში, ნამწვი აირები - კლინოფთილოლითი დისპერსულ სისტემაში მოსალოდნელ პროცესთა თერმოდინამიკური პროგნოზირება

CO2 generated in production processes and emitted into the atmosphere with flue gases is the cause of the greenhouse effect and negative processes of global climate change towards warming. Therefore, prevention of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere is the research topic of the article. CCUS type climate change mitigation projects are being developed in Georgia, where natural zeolite mineral containing clinoptilolite, Khekordzula tuff is a sorbent for CO2 capture. Its formation enthalpy (ΔfH0 298), Gibbs free energy (ΔfG0 298), and entropy (ΔfS 0 298) have not been studied, also temperatures of its thermal dehydration, CO2 adsorption, expected chemisorption and other thermodynamic quantities. It was determined: Enthalpy of clinoptilolite tuff formation (ΔfH0 298=-39826 kJ/mol), Gibbs free energy (ΔfG0 298=-36735 kJ/mol), entropy (ΔfS 0 298=-10.37 kJ/K-mol); Temperatures of dehydration (94.800C), CO2 capture using it (physical-96.5700C), start of chemo-sorption (95.2400C) and pressure corresponding to these temperatures (745, 636, 534) mm Hg. Tuff can be successfully used for CCUS from flue gases.

Progress with the Learning Health System 2.0: a rapid review of Learning Health Systems’ responses to pandemics and climate change

BackgroundPandemics and climate change each challenge health systems through increasing numbers and new types of patients. To adapt to these challenges, leading health systems have embraced a Learning Health System (LHS) approach, aiming to increase the efficiency with which data is translated into actionable knowledge. This rapid review sought to determine how these health systems have used LHS frameworks to both address the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, and to prepare for future disturbances, and thus transition towards the LHS2.0.MethodsThree databases (Embase, Scopus, and PubMed) were searched for peer-reviewed literature published in English in the five years to March 2023. Publications were included if they described a real-world LHS’s response to one or more of the following: the COVID-19 pandemic, future pandemics, current climate events, future climate change events. Data were extracted and thematically analyzed using the five dimensions of the Institute of Medicine/Zurynski-Braithwaite’s LHS framework: Science and Informatics, Patient-Clinician Partnerships, Continuous Learning Culture, Incentives, and Structure and Governance.ResultsThe search yielded 182 unique publications, four of which reported on LHSs and climate change. Backward citation tracking yielded 13 additional pandemic-related publications. None of the climate change-related papers met the inclusion criteria. Thirty-two publications were included after full-text review. Most were case studies (n = 12, 38%), narrative descriptions (n = 9, 28%) or empirical studies (n = 9, 28%). Science and Informatics (n = 31, 97%), Continuous Learning Culture (n = 26, 81%), Structure and Governance (n = 23, 72%) were the most frequently discussed LHS dimensions. Incentives (n = 21, 66%) and Patient-Clinician Partnerships (n = 18, 56%) received less attention. Twenty-nine papers (91%) discussed benefits or opportunities created by pandemics to furthering the development of an LHS, compared to 22 papers (69%) that discussed challenges.ConclusionsAn LHS 2.0 approach appears well-suited to responding to the rapidly changing and uncertain conditions of a pandemic, and, by extension, to preparing health systems for the effects of climate change. LHSs that embrace a continuous learning culture can inform patient care, public policy, and public messaging, and those that wisely use IT systems for decision-making can more readily enact surveillance systems for future pandemics and climate change-related events.Trial registrationPROSPERO pre-registration: CRD42023408896.

Alpine Rhododendron population contractions lead to spatial distribution mismatch with their pollinators under climate change

The effect of global climate change on plant–pollinator interaction is not limited to changes in phenology and richness within communities but also includes the spatial mismatch caused by the inconsistency of geographical distribution changes. Subsequently, the pollinator interaction network may be remodeled or even disrupted. In this study, we simulated the suitable habitat niche of 15 Rhododendron species and their eight pollinator species as well as their overlapping versus geographical mismatch under the current and three future climate change scenarios in 2090s, using MaxEnt. Results showed that the suitable habitat of all Rhododendron species would decrease in 2090s. In particular, 10, 8, and 13 Rhododendron–pollinator assemblages would have a reduced spatial match region under the climate change scenarios, mainly due to the contraction of the suitable habitat of Rhododendron species. The results provide novel insights into the response of plant–pollinator interactions to global warming, useful to prioritize conservation actions of alpine plant ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal variation and controlling factors of dried soil layers in a semi-humid catchment and relevant land use management implications

The formation of dried soil layers (DSLs) is a broad consequence of climate change (i.e., through temperature increases and/or precipitation decreases) and poor land management practices, where these layers exist has severe negative effects (i.e., retardation of vegetation, negative water cycle balance) on the sustainability of restored ecosystems and health of agriculture. Because of the effort and time required, only sporadic in situ measurements on spatial and temporal DSL variation have been reported, particularly at a catchment scale. However, this information is essential for understanding mechanisms associated with evolutionary DSL processes as well as developing effective land management techniques. Accordingly, this study monitored soil water content to a 5 m depth over a 5-year period in a semi-humid catchment on the Loess Plateau while also investigating temporal DSL dynamics and dominant controls. In the semi-humid catchment, DSLs occurred at 90.7 % of all sampling sites. Spatially and temporally averaged DSL formation depth (DSLFD), DSL thickness (DSLT), and DSL soil water content (DSL-SWC) within the 0–5 m profile were 170 cm, 262 cm, and 9.52 %, respectively. Forest and shrubland DSL regimes were drier than those of grassland. These three DSL indices exhibited significant correlation with temperature variables, while only DSLFD variables significantly correlated to precipitation. Land use type was the predominant control of DSL variation at a catchment scale. A spatial DSLT variation comparison under different land use treatment positions determined the feasibility of planting grass at an upslope position and mixed forest/shrubland + grass at mid-slope and downslope positions in the semi-humid catchment, which provides a good case study for afforestation practices at a catchment scale. Findings from this study are intended to aid in catchment soil and water conservation, soil drought mitigation, and sustainable vegetation management practices on the Loess Plateau as well as other water-limited regions worldwide.

Adapting to climate change through play? Didactically effective elements of a business simulation game

IntroductionThe negative consequences of climate change are widespread and have a global impact. An industrialized region of Germany must adapt to the effects of climate change and comply with political regulations. Previous studies indicate that economic actors who are not directly affected by climate change approach climate change mitigation and adaptation primarily based on legal requirements and often feel discouraged by the absence of data-based reports. Addressing this challenge, game-based learning emerges as a promising pathway.MethodsTo examine game-based learning’s applicability and potential for climate adaptation, we developed a business simulation game, simultaneously identifying didactically effective elements for managers who would participate in it. Using expert interviews and focus groups, we conducted a qualitative study with three HR developers from larger companies and nine managers and founders of startups to develop a business simulation game on climate adaptation. Based on the Grounded Theory methodology, theoretical coding was used to analyze the qualitative data.ResultsThe derived core categories indicate that personnel development in companies is evolving in response to economic changes. Individual resources such as motivation (especially for managers), personnel and time play a crucial role in establishing a business game as an educational offering. The identified game elements can also be used theoretically and practically in the development of other educational games.DiscussionWe discussed common human resource development measures in companies and compared them with more innovative approaches such as a simulation game. The study underscores the importance of innovative approaches, such as game-based learning, in fostering climate adaptation efforts among economic actors. By integrating theoretical insights with practical applications, our findings provide valuable guidance for the development of educational games aimed at addressing complex challenges like climate change. Further research and implementation of such approaches are essential for promoting proactive climate adaptation strategies within industrialized regions and beyond.