Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Examining the association of climate change worry and awareness of ecological footprint reduction behaviours with Mediterranean diet adherence and climate-friendly food choices

PurposeConsumers’ preferences for more sustainable dietary patterns and more climate-friendly foods can play a significant role in mitigating the effects of climate change. Accordingly, the present cross-sectional study aimed to examine the role of climate change worry and awareness of ecological footprint reduction behaviours in undergraduate consumers’ adherence to the Mediterranean diet and climate-friendly food choices.Design/methodology/approachThis cross-sectional study was carried out with 600 healthy undergraduate students, including 255 (42.5%) males and 345 (57.5%) females. They completed the climate change worry scale, the awareness scale for reducing ecological footprint and the Mediterranean diet adherence scale. In addition, participants’ climate-friendly diet scores (CFDS) were calculated to evaluate climate-friendly food choices. Data were analysed using SPSS software.FindingsLinear regression models indicated that climate change worry was positively associated with adherence to the Mediterranean diet (β = 0.121, p = 0.003) and CFDS (β = 0.087, p < 0.001). Similarly, a positive association was observed between the awareness of ecological footprint reduction behaviours and adherence to the Mediterranean diet (β = 0.179, p < 0.001) and CFDS (β = 0.098, p < 0.001).Research limitations/implicationsThe results may indicate that worry about climate change and awareness of ecological footprint reduction behaviours can promote higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet and more climate-friendly food choices, but the observed associations do not imply causality, and further studies are required to determine whether causal links exist.Originality/valueThis study examined the relationships between climate change worry, awareness of ecological footprint reduction behaviours, adherence to the Mediterranean diet and climate-friendly food choices in a single study on undergraduate students.

Toward environmental sustainability: Is responsible consumption and production of natural resources amid green energy, green technology, and green finance achievable?

AbstractThe relentless devastating impacts of global warming and other climate change effects leading to incessant ecological damages have compelled governments across the globe to rethink the pattern of natural resource depletion. This has motivated policymakers, governments, international organizations, and research pundits alike to advocate for a transition to sustainable consumption and production of natural resources. Consequently, there is a growing call for sustainable production and consumption practices, as outlined in Sustainable Development Goal 12 (SDG‐12). This research probes how natural resource production and consumption facilitate or hinder environmental sustainability in G7 economies from 1996 to 2020. The empirical evidence incorporates green energy, green technology, green finance, environmental tax, financial development, economic growth, and population as control variables within the STIRPAT theoretical framework. Second‐generation estimating techniques are utilized for empirical verification. An outstanding contribution of this study among others is the estimation of the moderating effects of green energy in mitigating the ensuing impact of natural resources on environmental sustainability. The results indicate that both production and consumption of natural resources, particularly coal and oil negatively affect environmental sustainability. Furthermore, green technology, energy, and finance as well as environmental tax are found to play a crucial role in promoting environmental sustainability. Green technology plays significant part in subduing the deteriorating effects of natural resources on the ecosystem. The robustness analyses further buttress the main analyses. Policy recommendations are proposed based on the empirical results.

Ocean-scale patterns of environment and climate changes driving global marine phytoplankton biomass dynamics.

Effects of marine environment and climate changes on phytoplankton dynamics in global oceans have received increasing attention but remain a mystery. This study used a comprehensive approach combining correlation and information flow to explore relationships among phytoplankton biomass, marine environment, and climate forcing based on global observations over the past multi-decadal period. Correlation and causality between phytoplankton biomass and environmental factors exhibit spatial asymmetry-regions where environmental factors directly drive biomass variations were concentrated in oceanic currents and subtropical circulations. Temperature, light, and mixed layer depth show pronounced influences on global phytoplankton interdecadal variations. Climate forcing over interdecadal timescales directly affects phytoplankton biomass in the equatorial Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Oceans, with more uncertain biomass variability in the equatorial Pacific due to multiple climate events. Our findings revealed that environment and climate changes directly affect phytoplankton interdecadal variability only in specific regions at the oceanic scale.

Climate Change Effects on Cucumber Viruses and Their Management

Climate Change Effects on Cucumber Viruses and Their Management

The land tenure and environmental policies nexus: policy integration and spatial planning in Benin

ABSTRACT This article examines the dynamics of integration between land tenure and environmental policies in Benin. This country is characterised by growing vulnerability to the effects of climate change and is marked by a long history of extraversion and dependence on international aid. This article contributes to the theoretical debate on the integration and coordination of environmental and climate policies by showing that cross-cutting policy objectives can hardly be achieved by State sectoral institutions alone, which are largely dependent on international development aid. It successively analyses the different agendas for rural and urban land issues, the incomplete institutionalisation of a Ministry of the Environment, and finally the growing development, supported by international aid, of a more targeted approach to spatial planning, which is more inclusive of land and environmental issues, but which remains focused on urban areas. The article concludes with a discussion of the structural difficulties encountered by international donors and the Beninese government in reaching agreement on cross-cutting issues, and the sectoral autonomies that contribute to the dynamics of inertia and limit the integration of these issues into bureaucratic routines.

Demonstrating almost half of cotton fiber quality variation is attributed to climate change using a hybrid machine learning-enabled approach

Understanding the effects of climate change on cotton fiber quality will reduce the risks to production caused by global warming. Machine learning algorithms are effective for forecasting climate impacts on crops. However, the impact of climate change on cotton fiber quality is unclear. Hence, a hybrid machine learning-enabled approach, the Bayesian model average (BMA) method with multiple machine learning algorithms (linear regressor, SVR, RFR, GBDT, LightGBM, and XGBoost) and bootstrap resampling, was developed to explore the impact and screen the important climatic factors affecting various traits of fiber quality. On the basis of fiber quality data from 1033 test stations across Xinjiang, China, from 2016 to 2022, the explained variance for climate change in the hybrid machine learning model was as follows: 44.72 %–50.55 % for white cotton grade, 44.06 %–53.95 % for length, 51.72 %–56.81 % for micronaire, 32.70 %–49.50 % for length uniformity, and 45.66 %–53.09 % for strength in the 1000 bootstrapping samples. In addition, recursive feature elimination with cross-validation (RFECV) was used to select the optimal feature set and calculate the contribution of each feature. The variability in micronaire in the hybrid model was affected primarily by climate factors, such as the daily minimum temperature, rainfall, and wind speed, whereas the other quality traits were affected mainly by radiation-related climatic indicators. The climate during the harvest stage in October had a significant effect on cotton quality, explaining 33.0 % of the variance in white cotton grade, 32.1 % in length, and 48.3 % in fiber strength. Conversely, the climate during the boll opening and early harvest stages in September had a greater influence on micronaire and length uniformity, accounting for 21.4 % and 37.2 % of the variance, respectively. This study highlights that climate change explains nearly 50 % of the variation in fiber quality, with the influence being notably more considerable during the later stages of the cotton growth period. These findings clarify the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on cotton fiber quality considering the uncertainty of the single machine model and model errors. Equally important, this information can be valuable for farmers and growers seeking to improve fiber quality under climate change.

Unraveling global species richness patterns of the Lysmatidae family: a multi-scale and multi-hypothesis ecological approach

While diversity gradients are well-explored in macroecology, factors shaping species richness at broad scales remain debated. We investigated the species richness of the decapod family Lysmatidae across 4 spatial scales: realm, province, ecoregion, and local (2° × 2° grid cells). We tested 4 ecological hypotheses: physiological stress (PSH), resource availability (RAH), habitat heterogeneity (HHH), and anthropogenic impact (AIH). Occurrence data (52 Lysmatidae species) and environmental variables (salinity, temperature, primary productivity, bathymetry, coral richness, anthropogenic impact index) were obtained from online databases and literature. Fifteen regression models, incorporating spatial filters, were tested to assess the hypotheses. The highest Lysmatidae species richness occurred in the Tropical Atlantic and Central Indo-Pacific realms. Richness varied with scale, with the highest values in the transition between the tropical and subtropical zones. Bathymetry was associated with Lysmatidae richness across all scales, especially at local and ecoregional scales, while coral richness was related to province and realm scales. HHH explained Lysmatidae richness patterns at the realm scale. Variables related to PSH and AIH were associated with richness at the ecoregion and province scales. Our study emphasized the importance of scale in biodiversity research, influencing richness patterns in Lysmatidae, and pointed to bathymetry, coral richness, and temperature range as the main drivers of richness. As this study showed a relationship between Lysmatidae richness, coral richness, and temperature at 3 spatial scales, this family may be susceptible to the effects of climate change, such as tropicalization of subtropical zones and defaunation of tropical ecosystems, including coral reefs.

From policy to progress: do female parliamentarians influence energy justice?

ABSTRACT Women parliamentarians have been playing an increasingly important role in shaping climate policy and advocating for energy justice in recent years. As lawmakers, they have a unique opportunity to influence policy decisions and prioritize sustainable practices that can mitigate the effects of climate change. Additionally, women parliamentarians bring a unique perspective to the table, often championing issues that directly impact women, children, and marginalized communities who are disproportionately affected by climate change and energy injustices. As the composition of parliamentarians becomes more diversified with the increasing representation of women, it is crucial to investigate whether female parliamentarians influence energy justice. Based on the theory of ecofeminism, which suggests that women are relatively more concerned with environmental sustainability and environmental risks than men, this study tests the hypothesis that women parliamentarians are more likely to take action in favour of energy justice. Specifically, this paper aims to examine the causal effect of female parliamentarians in promoting energy justice in a panel of 62 countries. The study proposes three sub-indicators of energy justice namely distributive justice, procedural justice, and restorative justice. Using the two-stage instrumental variable approach, we isolate the effect of female parliamentarians and find that it is a driver of energy justice. The results of a mediation analysis highlight the role of democracy and human capital as transmission channels, explaining the indirect effect of female parliamentarians on energy justice. The study's conclusions therefore highlight the importance of supporting and empowering women parliamentarians in their efforts to combat climate change and energy injustice.

Building Agricultural Resilience: Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation

Climate change has a significant impact on India's agriculture, influencing environmental conditions, agricultural techniques, and production. The term "climate-resilient agriculture" refers to technologies, methods, tools, and frameworks aimed at adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change on agricultural production, food security, and livelihoods. Crop productivity and food security are greatly impacted by climate changes, which calls for creative agricultural methods to maintain food supply while reducing environmental damages. These difficulties are made worse by environmental changes and global population expansion, especially in developing countries. Technological advancements, such as geospatial analysis, and eco-friendly farming technologies, play a crucial role in optimizing land use and enhancing food security. Crop variety adaptation and management of seed, water, land, livestock, soil and nutrients, pest management, risk management, and post-harvest management are examples of effective agricultural adaptation strategies. Technological developments like geographic analysis.

Increasing Yield more than Maintaining Fertile Soils Motivated the Choice of Climate-Smart Soil Technologies among Greater Lira Pigeon Pea Farmers

Pigeon pea farmers in Gerater Lira, Uganda, fight the adverse effects of climate change and deteriorating soil fertility. They are combining different strategies and adopting climate-smart soil technologies (CSS technologies) to maintain fertile soil and increase yields. The study explored how the motive for maintaining fertile soils affected CSS technologies' choice. A sample of 39 farmers participated in laddering interviews. Data was analyzed by the means-end chain (MEC) framework and the centrality index (CI) technique. MEC results indicate that farmers predominantly linked crop diversification, addressed dietary needs, increased yields, and increased incomes. In addition, they paid less attention to maintaining fertile soils. Results of the CI highlight goal priorities by gender subgroups with females aged at least 40 paying more attention to producing food, soil fertility, and improving health, while male farmers of the same age category were inclined to spread production risk. Results further showed that male farmers below 40 years of age tend to produce for markets and benevolent, while their female counterparts tend to maintain soil nutrients. Our overall findings could help in the development of targeted strategies to encourage a wider spread of CSS technology use for climate-smart agriculture. This could enhance agricultural resilience in the face of climate change. We recommend encouraging farmers to apply CSS technologies while considering the long-term effects they might have on soil fertility. we further recommend that farmers intensify residual retention to improve soil fertility without requiring money to purchase inorganic fertilizer.

Impact scenarios on groundwater availability of southern Italy by joint application of regional climate models (RCMs) and meteorological time series.

Nowadays the phenomenon of global warming is unequivocal, as confirmed by the latest reports of the IPCC and studies of the climate-change impacts on ecosystems, global economy, and populations. The effect of climate change on groundwater is a very relevant task especially for regions dependent chiefly on groundwater availability, as for the southern Italy. In such a territorial framework, to achieve a detailed hydro-climatological characterization, an Ensemble of 15 RCMs (E15) derived from the EURO-CORDEX project was analyzed considering two IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The E15 was calibrated over the period (1950-1996) by a statistical comparison with data observed by the regional meteorological network managed by the former National Hydrological Service (SIMN), Department of Naples. The effects of climate change on air temperature (T), precipitation (P) and, consequently, on actual evapotranspiration (ETR) and effective precipitation Pe (P - ETR) were analyzed until 2100. The latter was considered as a proxy of groundwater recharge of the principal aquifer systems, represented chiefly by the karst aquifers. As a principal result, it was found that the E15 is basically able to reproduce the observed annual precipitation (OBSP) and mean annual air temperature (OBST), being characterized by a very similar frequency distribution. Accordingly, an inferential statistical approach was performed for calibrating E15 precipitation (E15P) and air temperature (E15T) based on the compensation of the difference with OBSP (+ 7%) and OBST (-16%). The E15 projects a reduction in precipitation and an increase in air temperature under both RCPs, with a divergence point between the two scenarios occurring by about 2040. As a principal result, Pe shows declining trends for both RCP scenarios, reaching a decrease of the 11-yrs moving average down to -20%, for RCP4.5, and -50%, for RCP8.5, even if characterized by relevant inter-annual fluctuations.

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Human Security: Case of Nyahururu Sub-county, Laikipia County, Kenya

Climate change poses a significant threat to human security by exacerbating societal challenges, potentially leading to widespread despair. The primary objective of this study was to assess the effects of climate change on human security in Nyahururu Sub-County. The study adopted a concurrent triangulation research design. The study targeted the residents (household heads) of Nyahururu Sub-County, including farmers, pastoralists, ranchers and traders, who were distributed across the 4 locations/administrative units: Gituamba, Marmanet, Ngarua and Nyahururu. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Nyahururu Sub-County had an estimated population of approximately 154,704 individuals and a total of 44,073 households as of the 2019 census. The study was conducted between 2021 and 2024. The study used both quantitative and qualitative methods. Data collection involved questionnaires, key informant interviews and focus group discussions, with stratified random sampling for household heads and purposive sampling for key informants. Data were analyzed using frequencies, percentages and thematic analysis. The study found that Nyahururu Sub- County experiences fluctuations in both temperature and precipitation levels from 1989 to 2023, with mean daily maximum temperatures ranging from 22.8°C to 24.4°C and total annual precipitation varying between 665.1 mm and 771.7 mm. These trends indicate climate variability rather than a consistent long-term change in either temperature or precipitation. The study recommends targeted interventions to enhance community capacity, strengthen governance structures and promote sustainable livelihoods to mitigate the impacts of climate change on human security.

Integrating experiments and monitoring reveals extreme sensitivity of invasive winter annuals to precipitation.

In arid and semiarid systems of western North America, the most damaging invasive plants are winter annuals. These plants are destroying wildlife habitat, reducing livestock production, and increasing wildfires. Monitoring these plants for lasting population changes is challenging because their abundances vary widely from year to year. Some of this variation is due to weather, and quantifying effects of weather is important for distinguishing transcient from lasting population changes and understanding effects of climate change. Fall and spring weather affect germination and seed production of the current generation of plants and, therefore, impact population sizes of subsequent generations of plants. Extensive data are required to estimate effects of fall and spring weather on multiple generations of plants. We used Bayesian statistics to integrate experimental and long-term (31 years) monitoring data and quantify invasive annual grass [downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.) and Japanese brome (Bromus japonicus Thunb.)]responses to weather. Bromes ranged from nearly absent to comprising half of total biomass depending on three previous years of weather. Brome biomass increased with precipitation one, two, and three falls prior to measurement. Fall precipitation is projected to increase, and a mere 6.5 mm increase, which is just 2% of mean annual precipitation, would increase brome biomass 40% (28%, 54%) (mean [95% CI]) according to our model. Increased fall precipitation could favor many invasive winter annual grasses and forbs. Dry spring conditions reduced brome biomass the current year but increased brome biomass one and likely two (p = 0.08) years later, perhaps because dry conditions weakened perennial competitors. This finding casts doubt on several one-year precipitation experiments that concluded drier spring weather would reduce brome abundances. Integrating short-term experiments and long-term monitoring is useful for estimating invasive plant responses to the weather and characterizing their responses to climate change. Our research provides predictions of brome abundances that could improve monitoring efforts by helping land managers interpret population dynamics in the context of seasonal precipitation patterns.

Gilroy's Black Atlantic diaspora: climate displacement and rights‐bearing beyond the nation

AbstractNationalism studies have only recently started to grapple with the Anthropocene as a foundational shift for the discipline. One of the effects of climate change is the forced displacement of large populations, and if access to rights cannot be ensured outside the structures of territorial sovereignty, this migration could easily translate into widespread rightlessness. I argue that this necessitates a rethinking of how communities become rights‐bearing and how such rights‐bearing communities have existed outside the structures of the nation‐state. Specifically, I propose looking to Paul Gilroy's account of the Black Atlantic diaspora as an example of a rights‐bearing community that successfully claimed “the right to have rights” through a concerted effort of vocalising experiences of displacement. Reading Gilroy through rights‐scholarship in political theory I argue that the Black Atlantic can inform work on climate diasporas and their latent political potential as rights‐bearing communities.

MENTAL HEALTH IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change has intensified in recent decades, generating devastating consequences for the environment and, consequently, for human health. Mental health has emerged as a critical area of concern, since extreme weather events such as natural disasters, droughts and floods directly impact the psychological well-being of vulnerable populations. This study aims to analyze how climate change influences mental health, focusing on the psychological effects these changes have on communities in situations of vulnerability. The aim of this analysis is to explore how climate change impacts the mental health of vulnerable populations, discussing the main risk factors involved and addressing strategies that can be adopted to minimize these effects. This discussion is relevant because recognizing the emotional consequences of the climate crisis creates a basis for developing public health practices and psychosocial approaches that promote resilience and adaptation. By focusing on the psychological impact of climate change, we aim to contribute to a more comprehensive and inclusive response to the challenges of a changing world. This is a literature review, based on a qualitative approach, using the Scielo, Google Scholar and PubMed databases. To enhance the research, the health descriptors “climate change”, “mental health”, “psychological impacts” and “solastalgia” were used, with a time frame between 2007 and 2020. The methodology adopted for this analysis consists of a comprehensive literature review, using academic sources and reports from health and environmental organizations. The study addresses how extreme weather events, food insecurity and forced displacement affect mental health, leading to an increase in disorders such as anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In addition, the social inequalities that aggravate these impacts are discussed, considering that populations with less access to health resources and services are more susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. It is concluded that climate change poses a significant threat to mental health, especially for vulnerable populations already facing socio-economic challenges. It is essential that public health policies integrate mental health considerations into climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Promoting psychological support programs and implementing targeted interventions can help minimize the negative impacts on mental health, strengthening the resilience of affected communities and promoting a more effective response to climate crises.

Indications of a changing winter through the lens of lake mixing in Earth’s largest freshwater system

Abstract Global surface freshwater primarily resides in lakes, with the overwhelming majority found in Earth’s largest lakes, thus understanding potential climate change effects in these large lakes is critical. In dimictic lakes, climate change has extended the duration of summer thermal stratification and reduced the length of the ice season. These changes are relatively straightforward to evaluate in smaller, inland lakes. However in large lakes, such as the North American Great Lakes, temporally intermittent and spatially heterogeneous ice cover, and spatial thermal heterogeneity limit the utility of simple ice on-off or mixing classifications; therefore, assessing how climate change is impacting winter conditions in large lakes is challenging. Here, we use in-situ and satellite-derived surface water temperature observations from the North American Great Lakes to overcome these limitations and show that warming air temperatures are driving reductions in the number of winter days, collectively those with either ice cover or inverse thermal stratification, in favor of increases in isothermal conditions for the period 1995 to 2023. We find that on average the Great Lakes are experiencing a loss of 14 winter days per decade. Our results demonstrate how climate change has yielded disproportionate changes in the annual thermal cycle and mixing conditions of Earth’s largest freshwater system and signals the potential for fundamental ecosystem shifts due to a loss of winter.

Awareness and preparedness of health systems and emergency medicine systems to the climate change challenges and threats: an international survey.

Climate change is widely recognised as a critical public health challenge. The objective of this study was to assess the awareness, preparedness and mitigation plans for climate change threats. A cross-sectional observational study targeting emergency medical societies in different countries was conducted between 15 February and 15 March 2024. The survey featured 16 closed questions on climate change awareness, preparedness and risks. Focus groups of 4-6 members were organised by country. Results were correlated to income levels, United Nations (UN) regional classification and the World Risk Index. The questions were ranked using a Likert-like scale from 0 to 9 (9 being the highest). Descriptive statistics used central tendency estimators, and inferential analysis used chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests, with the significance level set at P < 0.05. Forty-two focus groups responded, representing 36 countries: 21 (50%) high-income, seven (16.7%) low-income, five (11.9%) lower middle-income and nine (21.4%) upper middle-income countries, representing 31 of the 22 UN regions. According to the World Risk Index, the respondent countries belonged to the different categories as follows: very low risk, 6 (14%); low risk, 8 (19%); medium risk, 5 (12%); high risk, 8 (19%) and very high risk, 14 (34%). The estimated impact of climate change on national health systems had a mean score of 6.75 (SD = 2.16), while on Emergency Medical Systems was 6.96 (SD = 2.05). Overall, assessment and preparedness measures were reported by just 21.4 and 37.6% of respondents, respectively. Analysis by income did not show significant differences, with the exception of food supply. The main differences in the analysis by region were the risks of extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and wildfires, whereas the World Risk Index was food and chain of supplies. Education and integration of health services were indicated by all as the main mitigation actions. Geographical position and country risk index influence risk perception among focus groups more than income economy, with vector-borne diseases, extreme weather events and food shortages being the threats with the most variability. The most important actions identified to mitigate Climate Change effects are educational and strategic plans.

Climate and political effects on agriculture: Empirical evidence from SSA

AbstractThe most of Sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries have been affected by climate change and food insecurity problems due to the reduction of production and productivity of cereal crops in the continent. The purpose of this research was to examine the short‐run and long‐run effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in 24 selected SSA countries. In the study, a systematic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Model was used with recent data from 24 SSA countries from 2001 to 2020. The panel regression result revealed that temperature and precipitation showed positive significant effects whereas carbon dioxide emission had negatively influenced the cereal crop productivity in the region. Specifically, the empirical result indicates that a one percent increase in precipitation increases cereal crop productivity by 0.27%. The empirical result of the GMM model revealed that political stability, temperature, GDP per capita, trade openness, carbon dioxide emission, fertilizer consumption, and precipitation have both short‐run and long‐run effects, while precipitation has only a short‐run effect on agricultural productivity in the study area. A key implication of this work is the realization of the lagging effects of climate change in determining cereal crop production and productivity. This study was unable to include all SSA countries because the excluded countries did not have sufficient data on the selected variables in the study. Hence, adopting high‐temperature and drought‐resistant types of enhanced cereal crops is advised to combat the negative effects of climate change in the study area.

Determination of effects of climate change on hydropower generation at Kamburu dam-Kenya.

This study aimed to determine the effects of climate change on hydropower generation at Kamburu Dam, Kenya. Kamburu power plant has been experiencing low volumes of water with the shortage of rainfall from its catchment area. This study primarily utilised rainfall and temperature data, as well as field survey data collected through questionnaires. Primary data was collected using questionnaires, photography, checklists, and observation guides. Secondary data sources included Kengen and the meteorological department's annual reports. The study used simple stratified sampling. The four villages of the Kivaa sub-location were sampled into 20 households, making a total of 80 households; Kengen and meteorological stations sampled every 10 respondents to make a total of 100 respondents. Collected data from the questionnaires were coded and analysed using SPSS 29. The results of this research showed that the area experiences increasing temperatures of 0.044? every year and decreasing rainfall of 0.5897mm every year. The research forecasted a decadal increase in temperature of 0.44? and a decadal decrease in rainfall of 5.897mm. The research also showed a decrease in hydropower of 18,790MWH every year, translating to a decadal decrease of 187,790MWH. The research concluded that climate change has greatly affected hydropower production at the Kamburu Dam power plant. The research recommends afforestation and re-afforestation activities, putting rules and regulations of watershed management, upgrading the Kamburu dam infrastructure to fit climate-resilient, expanding the capacity of the dam, and energy storage, among others.

Current conservation status and potential distribution under climate change of Michelia lacei, a Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations in Yunnan, China

Abstract Michelia lacei W.W. Smith, a magnolia species categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List, is subject to severe disturbance. We carried out field surveys and a review of literature records to present a detailed description of the current status of M. lacei. We then predicted the potential distribution of M. lacei under different climatic scenarios based on 60 occurrence records (53 recorded during our field surveys and 7 earlier records) and 19 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database. We selected 18 locations and four bioclimatic variables for model training. Temperature seasonality and annual temperature range were the most influential variables for predicting the potential distribution of the species. We used MaxEnt to model distribution under current climate conditions and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios in four future time periods to determine the effects of future climate change on the habitat suitable for the species. We predict areas of moderately and highly suitable habitat will gradually decrease over time. We recommend increased in situ and ex situ conservation efforts to mitigate this habitat decline and protect populations of M. lacei.