Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Human Security: Case of Nyahururu Sub-county, Laikipia County, Kenya

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to human security by exacerbating societal challenges, potentially leading to widespread despair. The primary objective of this study was to assess the effects of climate change on human security in Nyahururu Sub-County. The study adopted a concurrent triangulation research design. The study targeted the residents (household heads) of Nyahururu Sub-County, including farmers, pastoralists, ranchers and traders, who were distributed across the 4 locations/administrative units: Gituamba, Marmanet, Ngarua and Nyahururu. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Nyahururu Sub-County had an estimated population of approximately 154,704 individuals and a total of 44,073 households as of the 2019 census. The study was conducted between 2021 and 2024. The study used both quantitative and qualitative methods. Data collection involved questionnaires, key informant interviews and focus group discussions, with stratified random sampling for household heads and purposive sampling for key informants. Data were analyzed using frequencies, percentages and thematic analysis. The study found that Nyahururu Sub- County experiences fluctuations in both temperature and precipitation levels from 1989 to 2023, with mean daily maximum temperatures ranging from 22.8°C to 24.4°C and total annual precipitation varying between 665.1 mm and 771.7 mm. These trends indicate climate variability rather than a consistent long-term change in either temperature or precipitation. The study recommends targeted interventions to enhance community capacity, strengthen governance structures and promote sustainable livelihoods to mitigate the impacts of climate change on human security.