Convention On Climate Change Research Articles

The importance of natural land carbon sinks in modelling future emissions pathways and assessing individual country progress towards net-zero emissions targets

Nature-based solutions (NBS), in the form of active ecosystem conservation, restoration and improved land management, represent a pathway to accelerate net-zero emissions (NZE) strategies and support biodiversity. Meaningful implementation and successful accounting depend on the ability to differentiate between anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes on land. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) land carbon accounting methods currently incorporate all CO2 fluxes on managed land in country inventories without distinguishing between anthropogenic and natural components. Meanwhile, natural land carbon sinks are modelled by earth system models but are mostly reported at global level. Here we present a simple yet novel methodology to estimate the present and future progression of natural land sinks at the country and regional level. Forests dominate the uptake of CO2 on land and as such, our analysis is based on allocating global projections of the natural land carbon flux to individual countries using a compilation of forest land areas for a historic and scenario range spanning 1960–2100. Specifically, we use MIT’s carbon cycle model simulations that are set in the context of emissions pathways from the Shell Energy Security Scenarios (2023). Our natural land carbon flux estimates for individual countries and regions such as the European Union (EU) show generally good agreement with independent estimates from recent land-use harmonisation studies for 2000–2020. Hence, our approach may also provide a simple, first-order exploration of future natural land fluxes at country level—a potential that other studies do not yet offer. In turn, this enables better understanding of the anthropogenic and natural components contributing to country NZE targets under different scenarios. Nevertheless, our findings also suggest that models such as the Shell World Energy Model (WEM) would benefit from further improvements in the apportionment of land carbon sources and sinks to evaluate detailed actions to meet country targets. More importantly, uncertainties remain regarding the resilience of land ecosystems and their capacity to store increasing amounts of carbon under progressive global warming. Therefore, we recommend that the carbon cycle modelling and energy modelling research communities continue to collaborate to develop a next generation of relevant data products to distinguish anthropogenic from natural impacts at local, regional and national levels.

Making warming worlds: Future making between climate politics and science – The case of the Structured Expert Dialogue

The Long-Term Global Goal (LTGG) is the focal point for addressing future climate change. This paper explores a specific institutional context: the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Set up as a platform for interaction between experts and UN negotiators, the SED is a site where scientific information about the LTGG and net-zero was translated into actionable targets for policymaking. We identify different modes of anticipation in the SED - as scientific, lived future, and ethical/political - and explore how they emerged and played out. We ask how these different modes of anticipation produce a particular vision of a desirable future and legitimise ways of governing future climate change. We observe that the scientific and technical mode of anticipation is dominant and has shaped the definition of the LTGG, focussing on numerical targets and side-lining geopolitical and distributive consequences. We also see the science-based framing being re-politicised and challenged, and discuss how capacities to get a voice in the SED were unequally distributed. Based on our findings, we suggest that care is needed to design spaces in order to consider ethical and political consequences of the LTGG and rethink modes of participation and representation.

Historical and relative dominance of the convention on biological diversity agenda: a case analysis of decisions and recommendations

In contrast to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) gives developing countries greater bargaining power owing to their abundant natural resources. CBD negotiations tend to be increasingly dominated by agendas related to the CBD’s third objective: benefit sharing. The first and core objective of CBD is biodiversity conservation, but it is often neglected in favor of benefit sharing. To verify this tendency, this study used topic modeling to analyze the recommendations of the subsidiary bodies and decisions made by the Conference of the Parties (COP) over the past 30 years. The study identified the ten most frequently discussed agenda, then determined the relative dominant agenda between the COP and subsidiary bodies. By categorizing the negotiation agendas into strategic decision agendas and operational conservation agendas based on the level of the meeting which the agenda dominated, this study offers a new framework that can be used to understand how strategic and operational factors interact in CBD negotiations. The findings show that biodiversity conservation, the first objective of CBD, is no longer dominant, at least during negotiations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive investigation of all documents generated during CBD negotiations since its inception.

Addressing Impacts from Climate Change Within International Legal System: More Precise Distribution of Responsibilities

As the international challenges resulting from climate change become emergent, how to reform international law and institutions to reduce the effects of climate change has become a crucial issue. This paper carries out surveys on regulating and restructuring the present international law system about current issues and provides suggestions for further practice. We can also consider building a climate club. The existing climate regulation mechanism needs to improve, leading to problems such as carbon leakage and free riding. Climate clubs can urge countries to fulfill their obligations by rewarding member states that fulfill their obligations and cracking down on non-member states. Apart from efforts in environmental governance, the international law system should also attach attention to the issue of climate refugees as a reaction to climate change. The last article argues that international society should provide legal protection for climate refugees, and it is reasonable for them to acquire a formally defined legal status for future humanitarian care. This thesis also explores the potential role of regional bodies in addressing climate change outside of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the legitimacy of their responsibilities based on constitutional treaties, their role in regulating the international commons, and their relationship to the UNFCCC. Based on this, this thesis suggests that regional institutions take on more responsibility in regulating state obligations and propose possible solutions to the climate change crisis. CBDR is an essential principle in the cooperation among countries to solve the problem of global climate change. It makes global cooperation fairer and more effective but also generates some problems. The main problem is that there is no clear division of responsibilities between countries, and policies must be implemented. This paper proposes three ways to divide responsibilities and argues that companies must actively participate in global emission reduction activities.

Uncertainty in REDD+ carbon accounting: a survey of experts involved in REDD+ reporting

BackgroundReducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) is a program established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to reduce carbon emissions from forests in developing countries. REDD+ uses an incentive-based approach whereby participating countries are paid to reduce forest carbon loss and increase carbon storage. Country-level carbon accounting is challenging, and estimates of uncertainty in emission reductions are increasingly required in REDD+ reports. This requirement is hard to meet if countries lack the necessary resources, tools, and capabilities. Some REDD+ programs adjust their payments for the uncertainty reported, which presents a perverse incentive because uncertainties are larger if more sources of uncertainty are reported. We surveyed people involved in REDD+ reporting to assess current capacities and barriers to improving estimates of uncertainty.ResultsRepresentatives from 27 countries (44% of REDD+ countries at the time of survey implementation) responded to the survey. Nearly all respondents thought it important to include uncertainty in REDD+ reports, but most felt that the uncertainty reporting by their countries was inadequate. Our independent assessment of reports by these countries to the UNFCCC supported this opinion: Most countries reported uncertainty in activity data (91%) but not in emission factors (4–14%). Few countries use more advanced approaches to estimate uncertainty, such as Monte Carlo and Bayesian techniques, and many respondents indicated that they lack expertise, knowledge, or technical assistance. Other barriers include lack of financial resources and appropriate data. Despite these limitations, nearly all respondents indicated a strong desire to improve estimates of uncertainty in REDD+ reports.ConclusionsThe survey indicated that people involved in REDD+ reporting think it highly important to improve estimates of uncertainty in forest carbon accounting. To meet this challenge, it is essential to understand the obstacles countries face in quantifying uncertainty so we can identify where best to allocate efforts and funds. Investments in training and resources are clearly needed to better quantify uncertainty and would likely have successful outcomes given the strong desire for improvement. Tracking the efficacy of programs implemented to improve estimates of uncertainty would be useful for making further refinements.

The Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the Paris Agreement need a joint work programme for climate, nature and people

Abstract The global climate and biodiversity crises are closely intertwined, yet no policy instrument currently tackles both jointly. This is problematic, as the lack of international platforms for designing coordinated and coherent policy frameworks that align targets across the nexus of biodiversity and climate change poses risks to nature and people. Here, we argue that the successful implementation of both the Paris Agreement and the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) requires a joint work programme between the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Such a joint work programme could fill the current global governance vacuum and address critical implementation gaps, while fostering innovation and synergies in climate and biodiversity action. Based on a review of existing work programmes under the UNFCCC and interagency and joint work programmes established with the CBD, we provide a concept of how this joint programme could be set up, ideas on the type of issues it should tackle and recommendations for successful implementation. Policy implications: The UNFCCC and CBD are unique platforms for providing the evidence to, and guiding the way through the changes we need, but higher levels of integration between the biodiversity and climate change agendas are needed to plug the implementation gap between the GBF and the Paris Agreement. The upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) present a clear policy window for the two conventions to introduce a formal governance structure, such as the one proposed in this contribution, that brings together ideas, people, organizations and processes necessary for joining the dots on how to both stabilize our climate and recover our nature.

Did the Glasgow COP26 negotiations meet or miss Article 6 (carbon markets) of the Paris Agreement? A systematic review of the literature

AbstractThe Paris Agreement is an important milestone in international climate policy and the associated negotiations of the United Nations Climate Summit under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is a supplementary mechanism—regarding carbon markets—to reduce greenhouse gases and achieve the UNFCCC's main objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. The 2021 United Nations Climate Summit in Glasgow (COP26) played a key role in the pursuit of this goal. Via an overview of Article 6 negotiations in past COP summits and a systematic review and qualitative meta‐synthesis of the literature leading up to COP26, I identify three arguments involving Articles 6.2, 6.4, and 6.8 behind the selected literature. I substantiate these arguments based on the meta‐evaluation of the existing literature and propose a three‐stage meta‐evaluation of the arguments on Article 6 (carbon markets) of the Paris Agreement in the context of COP26 to ascertain if the negotiations were successful in leading to requisite agreements on Article 6. I conclude that future qualitative research should focus on Articles 6.4 and 6.8 of the Paris Agreement and examine the outcomes of future climate debates to see how ideas will flow through the negotiations regarding these two articles to pursue the goal of the UNFCCC under the Paris Agreement.Related ArticlesJihyung Joo, Jihyung, Jouni Paavola, and James Van Alstine. 2023. “The Divergence of South Korea's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) from the EU ETS: An Institutional Complementarity View.” Politics & Policy 51(6): 1155–73. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12566.Nunes Silva, Carlos. 2012. “Policy and Evidence in a Partisan Age: The Great Disconnect—By Paul Gary Wyckoff.” Politics & Policy 40(3): 541–43. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00363.x.Robles, Pedro, and Daniel J. Mallinson. 2023. “Catching up with AI: Pushing toward a Cohesive Governance Framework.” Politics & Policy 51(3): 355–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12529.

Enhancing Climate Change Resilience: Assessing Adaptation Needs, and Significance of Monitoring and Evaluation Systems

Losses and damages from climate change related extreme weather events and disasters require the development of adaptation measures to increase resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change. In line with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement's Global Goal on Adaptation, Parties have developed strategies that include adaptation actions, but there are significant gaps in identification of adaptation needs and the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of actions to address them. Adaptation M&E systems are critical for measuring the success of adaptation actions, providing feedback from the implementation process, and identifying new actions. There is no global methodology for adaptation M&E. At international climate change negotiations in 2023, it was agreed that countries should operationalize their national adaptation M&E systems by 2030. The aim of this study is to evaluate adaptation M&E methodologies developed by countries at different development levels and to present future policy recommendations for the adaptation M&E system planned to be established in Turkey. The study reveals the necessity of up-to-date socio-economic data as well as climate data in determining adaptation needs and adaptation M&E systems. In Turkey, which is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, for the success of adaptation actions, besides the rapid operationalization of adaptation M&E system, establishment of the system with an approach that includes all stakeholders in the process and considers adaptation actions as integrated with disaster risk management actions is an important requirement in the context of Turkey's international commitments, national security, and development.

Revealing the significant acceleration of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in eastern Asia through long-term atmospheric observations

Abstract. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are powerful anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) with high global-warming potentials (GWPs). They have been widely used as refrigerants, insulation foam-blowing agents, aerosol propellants, and fire suppression agents. Since the mid-1990s, emissions of HFCs have been increasing rapidly as they are used in many applications to replace ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) whose consumption and production have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol (MP). Due to the high GWP of HFCs, the Kigali Amendment to the MP requires the phasedown of production and consumption of HFCs to gradually achieve an 80 %–85 % reduction by 2047, starting in 2019 for non-Article 5 (developed) countries with a 10 % reduction against each defined baseline and later schedules for Article 5 (developing) countries. In this study, we have examined long-term high-precision measurements of atmospheric abundances of five major HFCs (HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-32, HFC-125, and HFC-152a) at Gosan station, Jeju Island, South Korea, from 2008 to 2020. Background abundances of HFCs gradually increased, and the inflow of polluted air masses with elevated abundances from surrounding source regions were detected over the entire period. From these pollution events, we inferred regional and country-specific HFC emission estimates using two independent Lagrangian particle dispersion models and Bayesian inversion frameworks (FLEXPART-FLEXINVERT+ and NAME-InTEM). The spatial distribution of the derived “top-down” (measurement based) emissions for all HFCs shows large fluxes from megacities and industrial areas in the region. Our most important finding is that HFC emissions in eastern China and Japan have sharply increased from 2016 to 2018. The contribution of East Asian HFC emissions to the global total increased from 9 % (2008–2014) to 13 % (2016–2020). In particular, HFC emissions in Japan (Annex I country) rose rapidly from 2016 onward, with accumulated total inferred HFC emissions being ∼ 114 Gg yr−1, which is ∼ 76 Gg yr−1 higher for 2016–2020 than the “bottom-up” (i.e., based on activity data and emission factors) emissions of ∼ 38 Gg yr−1 reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is likely related to the increase in domestic demand in Japan for refrigerants and air-conditioning-system-related products and incomplete accounting. A downward trend of HFC emissions that started in 2019 reflects the effectiveness of the F-gas policy in Japan. Eastern China and South Korea, though not obligated to report to the UNFCCC, voluntarily reported emissions, which also show differences between top-down and bottom-up emission estimates, demonstrating the need for atmospheric measurements, comprehensive data analysis, and accurate reporting for precise emission management. Further, the proportional contribution of each country's CO2-equivalent HFC emissions has changed over time, with HFC-134a decreasing and HFC-125 increasing. This demonstrates the transition in the predominant HFC substances contributing to global warming in each country.

Making Global Climate Action work for nature and people: Priorities for Race to Zero and Race to Resilience

There is increasing recognition in science and policy that the current nature and climate change crises are highly intertwined, and that these need to be jointly addressed. Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Race to Zero (R2Z) and the Race to Resilience (R2R) campaigns foster climate action by cities, regions, businesses, investors, and civil society organizations for mitigation and adaptation. The campaigns are part of UNFCCC-backed institutional arrangements linking intergovernmental climate governance with actions beyond national commitments to support the implementation of the Paris Agreement, also referred to as the Global Climate Action Agenda (GCAA). Both mobilization campaigns highlight and promote the contribution of nature to climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience. Yet, the integration of nature in climate ambition is more complex than indicated in the calls to action. We here identify key areas of concern in the alignment of climate and biodiversity goals, discussing the biophysical and socio-ecological considerations relative to (i) practices for enhancing land-based and marine sinks to limit warming; (ii) the unpredictability of biodiversity dynamics under climate change; (iii) the spatial scale at which actions can be implemented; and (iv) the types of metrics that can be used for tracking progress. We provide recommendations for the two mobilization campaigns to integrate in their criteria and metrics frameworks to support effective and equitable actions that deliver for climate, but also for nature and people. We then make a call to action for transdisciplinary knowledge production and dissemination that strengthens science-policy interactions.

Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions in Greece from 1996 to 2020

To meet Greece’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (KP) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), it’s crucial to dissect the primary influencers of its greenhouse gas emissions. This study utilized the logarithmic mean Divisia index method in its additive form to delve into the main drivers behind carbon dioxide emissions in Greece from 1996 to 2020. The analysis revealed that the primary catalyst for the rise in CO2 emissions was the growth in GDP. Conversely, advancements in energy efficiency, as indicated by a decrease in energy intensity, played a significant role in reducing CO2 emissions. While population growth contributed to an increase in emissions, a decline in emissions intensity showcased a reduction in emissions per unit of output or consumption. The period from 1996 to 2020 witnessed a 38% change in emissions, demonstrating the effectiveness of Greece’s environmental policies. These findings highlight the pressing need for a sustained focus on enhancing renewable energy sources (RES) penetration and ensuring comprehensive attention across all sectors to further reduce emissions.

A perspective on the significance of reporting climate change adaptation information to the united nations framework convention on climate change

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the centre of the global policy response to climate change. The Paris Agreement, a legally binding treaty under the UNFCCC, has located climate change adaptation as a critical component of the global response to climate change. The Paris Agreement also establishes an enhanced transparency framework to track progress towards Parties climate change commitments. However, the UNFCCC has consistently maintained a marked difference in provisions for reporting climate change adaptation and climate change mitigation. Consequently, reporting on climate change adaptation lags far behind in detail when compared to that for reporting on climate change mitigation. Using literature review as the main method of analysis, this paper aims to understand the underlying factors that have resulted in the lack of specificity of reporting provisions of the UNFCCC for climate change adaptation and the consequences of non-mandatory provisions for reporting on climate change adaptation on national and global adaptation practice. The paper then highlights the benefits of regular reporting of climate change adaptation to the UNFCCC. It makes important contribution to the growing literature on global environmental governance, especially on national reporting of adaptation information, an under-studied and a poorly understood field.

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

Estimating the uncertainty of the greenhouse gas emission accounts in global multi-regional input–output analysis

Abstract. Global multi-regional input–output (GMRIO) analysis is the standard tool to calculate consumption-based carbon accounts at the macro level. Recent inter-database comparisons have exposed discrepancies in GMRIO-based results, pinpointing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission accounts as the primary source of variation. A few studies have analysed the robustness of GHG emission accounts, using Monte Carlo simulations to understand how uncertainty from raw data propagates to the final GHG emission accounts. However, these studies often make simplistic assumptions about raw data uncertainty and ignore correlations between disaggregated variables. Here, we compile GHG emission accounts for the year 2015 according to the resolution of EXIOBASE V3, covering CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions. We propagate uncertainty from the raw data, i.e. the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and EDGAR inventories, to the GHG emission accounts and then further to the GHG footprints. We address both limitations from previous studies. First, instead of making simplistic assumptions, we utilise authoritative raw data uncertainty estimates from the National Inventory Reports (NIRs) submitted to the UNFCCC and a recent study on uncertainty of the EDGAR emission inventory. Second, we account for inherent correlations due to data disaggregation by sampling from a Dirichlet distribution. Our results show a median coefficient of variation (CV) for GHG emission accounts at the country level of 4 % for CO2, 12 % for CH4 and 33 % for N2O. For CO2, smaller economies with significant international aviation or shipping sectors show CVs as high as 94 %, as seen in Malta. At the sector level, uncertainties are higher, with median CVs of 94 % for CO2, 100 % for CH4 and 113 % for N2O. Overall, uncertainty decreases when propagated from GHG emission accounts to GHG footprints, likely due to the cancelling-out effects caused by the distribution of emissions and their uncertainties across global supply chains. Our GHG emission accounts generally align with official EXIOBASE emission accounts and OECD data at the country level, though discrepancies at the sectoral level give cause for further examination. We provide our GHG emission accounts with associated uncertainties and correlations at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10041196 (Schulte et al., 2023) to complement the official EXIOBASE emission accounts for users interested in estimating the uncertainties of their results.

What really happened at COP-28 in Dubai: A personal view

This article describes the most meaningful developments at the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP-28) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which took place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, November 30 – December 13, 2023. This is done, in part, by reflecting on the history of these annual meetings, drawing on the author's experience of participating annually over a period of sixteen years. This history reveals the evolution over time that has taken place in the relative importance in the annual meetings of the official negotiations compared with the simultaneous participation of civil society. The press coverage of COP-28 is examined, along with the important role played by two countries – China and the United States, the dramatic increase in attention given to methane, and two disappointments, one associated with funding for adaptation, and the other connected with provisions for carbon markets.

A snapshot of fundamental geological knowledge to deal with climate change

The 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, concluded in December 2023. The meeting discussed the overarching goal of the legally binding Paris Agreement to limit “global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. The COP 28 recognised recent findings of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that “limiting global warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level, and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050”.

Underestimation of carbon dioxide emissions from organic-rich agricultural soils

Organic-rich agricultural soils, including drained peatlands, are hotspots for biogenic CO2 emissions. Due to microbial mineralisation, the organic carbon (OC) content of these soils transitions to that of mineral soils, but it remains unclear how the residual OC content controls the rate of CO2 emission. Here we show that area-scaled CO2 emissions from topsoils with >6% OC are not controlled by OC content and OC density in a comprehensive laboratory incubation experiment. National greenhouse gas inventories assign area-scaled CO2 emission factors to soils with >12% OC, while soils with 6-12% OC are mostly disregarded or treated with lower emission factors. In this respect, our results suggest that CO2 emissions from organic soils could be underestimated by up to 40% in the Danish national inventory submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We conclude that global underestimation of area-scaled CO2 emissions from 6-12% OC soils occurs in countries with large proportions of organic soils in transition from organic to organo-mineral soils due to agricultural management. Refining CO2 emission estimates for 6-12% OC soils is critical for the accuracy of national inventories, but also for recognising the climate benefits of initiatives to rewet drained organic soils.

Embedding technology at the grassroots: Strategies for localising technology transfer under the UNFCCC technology mechanism

AbstractTechnology transfer to the Global South involves not only technical solutions, but also ‘localising’ or adapting those solutions to place through multiparty learning and problem solving. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Technology Mechanism have largely overlooked the importance of localisation and have created a governance environment that neither reflects the ‘messiness’ of this process, nor the need for flexibility and long‐term collaboration for effective search and discovery, implementation and knowledge creation. This article focuses on the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN), the Technology Mechanism's implementation arm, and the challenges it faces in orchestrating the transfer of technology to the Global South. Drawing on recent empirical research and theories of innovation and experimentalism, the article examines how the CTCN and its associated institutions could be governed in ways that better enable localisation. It argues that successful transfer is more likely to be facilitated through systemic linkages between the CTCN and associated technology processes such as Technology Needs Assessments, and by creating more active processes of technological search, learning, peer review and knowledge exchange.

Has process hijacked purpose? Outlook on food systems transformation in the global climate change processes

There has been growing interest in the Conference of Parties (COPs) meetings of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in food systems, which account for a third of global emissions and are heavily impacted by climate change. While there has been much rhetoric about the need for transformation at recent COPs, we examine whether this solely remains at the level of rhetoric and ambition or is likely to deliver the climate action that is needed. Based on literature, documentation of UNFCCC meetings, and our own participation, we observe that progress in the past on agriculture has been extremely slow and has led to limited action, while the recent verbiage on food systems has not been matched by significant progress in the negotiations. The urgent action needed is not realised through the UNFCCC processes. New and radically different ways to catalyse action are needed, and the UNFCCC process urgently needs reform as part of wider multilateral reforms. We propose that the scale of the COPs is reduced and that the focus shifts to the results delivered through rigorous evaluation, accountability and transparency, and a shift towards less consensus-based approaches to drive action and ambition.

The Climate Change Conundrum: A Case for Course Correction in the Global Regulatory Approach$

The Conference of Parties (COP) of the multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) provides a platform at a specific periodicity (one, two or three years) to review work of the Convention in question. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is a ‘universal’ convention with 198 parties. The 28th annual meeting of the COP (UNFCCC) was held in Dubai (UAE) during 30 November - 13 December 2023. The UN provides ‘secretariat’ support to the UNFCCC, hence the usage of prefix ‘United Nations’. It is called a ‘framework convention’ since it was adopted with a bare skeleton on 09 May 1992. It required ‘fleshing out’ of the UNFCCC with required elements to make it work for the “‘ultimate objective” of “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (Article 2). It led to the adoption of the (“related legal instruments”) 1997 Kyoto Protocol and 2015 Paris Agreement. The climate change regime now comprises these three legal instruments that seek to address the global climate problematique. Whereas COP27 (Sharm El-Shaik; 06–21 November 2022) was known for adoption of the decision on “loss and damage” funding for vulnerable countries hit hard by climate disasters, COP28 unveiled the first global climate ‘stocktake’. This took place on the heels of UNEP Emissions Gap Report (20 November 2023) that issued warming that “world is heading for a temperature rise far above the Paris Agreement goals unless countries deliver more than they have promised”. The UNEP report called for the GHG emissions (by 2030) to “fall by 28 per cent for the Paris Agreement 2°C pathway and 42 per cent for the 1.5°C pathway”. Thus, there is a big chasm between what is laid down in the climate change regulatory framework, what is scientifically ordained and what is actually given effect on the ground by the states Parties. After 30 years (1994–2024), the resultant ‘conundrum’ presents a challenge at this juncture of planetary crisis. It calls for the state Parties to the global climate change regime to engage in a major course correction in the current global climate change regulatory approaches for securing our planetary future.