Climate Change Considerations Research Articles

Modelling the climate change in regional crop production efficiency in Canada: based on the super-efficiency SBM model and DEA window analysis

This study aims to capture the spatial and time influence of climate change on crop production efficiency (CPE) using the SE-SBM model combined with DEA window analysis. The model is validated with the data from 1976 to 2016 in Saskatchewan, one of the three Canadian prairie provinces. By categorising Saskatchewan into three regions: black soil zone, dark brown soil zone, and brown soil zone, differences are analysed between CPE without considering climate change and CPE under climate change. We find that CPE under climate change is significantly larger than CPE without consideration of climate change, and the positive influence of temperature fluctuations during the growth period on CPE is more important than that of humidity fluctuations, and the beneficial impact of average humidity on CPE is significantly greater than that of average temperature.

Modelling the impact of climat change on a novel Irish Concrete Bridge

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on the novel repair of Ferrycarrig Bridge, a reinforced concrete (RC) marine bridge on Ireland’s south-east coast. Five unique repair solutions were applied to the seven crosshead beams on Ferrycarrig Bridge during works in 2007. The two solutions under examination herein involved replacement of the concrete around the sides of the crosshead beams with either 100% Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) concrete or concrete in which 60% of the cement was made up of Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GGBS) and 40% OPC. Changes to environmental policy mean that the use of GGBS within RC structures is becoming increasingly popular. Thus, understanding its performance over time is imperative. Chloride ingress and concrete crack modelling are completed herein to compare how climate change will affect the service life of the crosshead beams in which the OPC and OPC+GGBS concrete solutions are applied. The results stemming from this modelling are used to quantify the impact of reinforcement corrosion and concrete deterioration on the crosshead beams’ structural capacity. The findings indicate that without consideration of climate change, the OPC+GGBS concrete solution utilised in Ferrycarrig Bridge is 4.75 times more resistant to severe cracking caused by chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion than the OPC concrete solution. However, the durability of the OPC+GGBS concrete is more adversely affected by climate change with a lifetime reduction of 15.8% for the worst climate scenario as compared with a reduction of just 2.7% for the OPC concrete, reducing relative merit from 4.75 to 4.11.

Study on PMP estimation for the flood risk evaluation of hydropower dams in consideration of the future climate change

It is important for hydropower dams to estimate PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation) appropriately and to prepare the plan of facilities modification and operational changes in advance, because the future flood risk by climate change influence is getting higher. In this paper, we compared three methods of PMP estimation, the conventional method applying DAD (Duration Area and Depth) analysis based on the experienced rain results, the product of d4PDF (database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change) that is the latest climate model ensemble prediction, and the pseudo-global warming experimental results on the typhoon. It was showed that PMP by d4PDF and the pseudo-global warming experimental results were larger than that by DAD analysis and fluctuated smoothly and reasonably over time. It is preferable and reasonable to evaluate the PMP risk applying DAD analysis at the rough examination, and the estimations applying d4PDF or pseudo-global warming scenario is suitable for more detailed examination.

Spatiotemporal evaluation of rainfall trend during 1979-2019 in seven climatic zones of Bangladesh

ABSTRACT Rainfall trend analysis is common for climate change observation following the flood, drought, and other extreme hydrometeorological possibilities. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the spatiotemporal rainfall trend for seven climatic zones in Bangladesh during 1979–2019. For the trend exploration Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, slope estimator (Sens) and IDW techniques were utilised from the dataset of 27 stations. The findings shows descending annual trend of >-2.50, >1.95, >-1.80, >-1.60, >-1.31 and >-0.50 for the zones of (C)western region, (A)northern part of northern region, (B)north-western region, (E)south-central region, (D)south-western region and (G)north-eastern region, respectively, whereas ascending trend found for only (F)south-eastern region >1.83. Except for post-monsoon season zone F > 2.90 trends, all other seasonal trend is in a declining position. An increasing magnitude of rainfall is found >0.0355(F) for annual, >0.136(A), 0.0146(C), 0.0047(F) and 0.0093(G) for pre-monsoon, >0.0046(D), >0.0329(F) for post-monsoon, >0.0039(G) for winter and >0.0273(F) for monsoon seasons while all other zones are in decreased nature. Heterogeneously significant rainfall magnitude for annual, pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and monsoon seasons was also found, which includes >.03(F), >0.01(C), >0.03(F), >1.51(F), respectively. The findings recommend adopting operations and advanced design for water management with consideration of agricultural development and climate change.

Patterns and drivers of the degradability of dissolved organic matter in dryland soils on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Dryland soils consistently exhibit a low capacity for the long‐term accumulation and storage of organic matter, which has been primarily attributed to low plant biomass inputs under drought suppression. Whether, and how, soil organic matter (SOM) compositions contribute to the consistently low SOM storage have been puzzling. A fundamental understanding of this mechanism is particularly essential to achieve the aspiration of ‘4 per mille Soils for Food Security and Climate’. By screening the molecular composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM), the gatekeeper of SOM decomposition, we explored the transformation processes among the pools of SOM, DOM and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) in soils along a precipitation gradient on dryland grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau. The results revealed that the number and mean weight of DOM molecules significantly decreased, and the soil DOM composition gradually shifted to be more labile along the transition from meadow, steppe, to desert with decreasing precipitation, coinciding with the substantial reduction in SOM. Compared with meadow soils, DOM degradability increased by 8.7% in steppe soils and by 23.4% in desert soils. The ratio of soil MBC to total organic carbon was threefold higher in desert than in meadow, and positively correlated with DOM degradability, indicating that labile DOM accelerated microbial growth and SOM decomposition in desert soils. Structural equation model and correlation analyses demonstrated that the DOM degradability was primarily controlled by soil dissolved nitrogen and soil organic C and soil DOC/DN ratio. Synthesis and application. This study at a molecular level provides a novel insight into the important role of the degradability of dissolved organic matter in carbon accumulation in dryland soils with consistently low organic matter storage. The findings will inform better global managements of soil organic matter under consideration of both food security and climate change.

Dissemination and Exploitation of Regional Meteo-Hydrological Datasets through Web-based Interactive Applications: The SOL System Case Study

The effects of climate change are already being felt in several parts of the World. Variability of changing rainfall intensity, drought and weather patterns contribute to determining the vulnerability of many human activities such as agriculture. In the next future, climate change considerations will depend on having appropriate strategies such as strengthen implementation agencies working in a coordinated manner and with a data-driven approach in order to ensure monitoring, reporting and data verification. In this context, national and regional meteorological Services are facing with high demand for timely and quality information, services and products. A web-based interactive application with the aim of disseminating meteo-hydrological information at regional scale is described in this paper. The web application is built on a relational database and client-side programming has been used for implementing the user interface and controlling the web page behavior. The combination of PHP (Hypertext Preprocessor, a general-purpose scripting language, especially suited to server-side web development) and JavaScript (high-level object-oriented scripting language, nowadays the dominant client-side scripting language of the Web) has been chosen for this reason, since such software is free to use for everyone. The SOL system, developed on behalf of Marche region, Italy, was chosen as a case study, due to its multi-source data framework and because of the processing and public dissemination of several ad-hoc data elaborations.

The 2021 review of the monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem : an economy of forces

This study delves into the rationale behind the 2021 review of the monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem and elaborates on the main elements of the new strategy and its implications for monetary policy-making going forward. The profound changes in the economic landscape that have taken place since the last review in 2003 prompted the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks to embark on a comprehensive review of the monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem. The aim has been to ensure that the strategy reflects upon these unique challenges and remains well suited in pursuit of the primary objective of price stability. The key outcome of the strategy review, unveiled in July 2021, has been the reformulation of the price stability objective so as to adopt a symmetric commitment to the 2% inflation target over the medium term, as well as the confirmation of the flexible use of unconventional monetary policy tools when the economy operates close to the effective lower bound of interest rates. In addition, the new strategy has further incorporated financial stability and climate change considerations into the monetary policy framework. The present study outlines the enhancements embedded in the new strategy, as regards the fulfilment of the price stability mandate of the Eurosystem. It also discusses the ways in which the new strategy could have, to some extent, addressed the challenges faced by the euro area and its individual members, with a focus on Greece, over the past crisis years.

Climate change risk: The next frontier in banking risk management

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, more intense and, to a certain extent, more predictable, according to global climate research. Over time, the effects of climate change could alter dramatically the environment upon which communities, societies and economic activity depend. Meanwhile, a correlating impact on firms, sectors and geographies could render traditional business models ineffective or obsolete. Rapid developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) initiatives, and rising stakeholder demand for improved sustainability performance, will require banks to take a more integrated and strategic approach to climate risk management. This paper explores the practicalities of integrating climate-related risks into existing risk management frameworks, strategies and processes. It examines the key components and attributes of an effective climate-risk framework. And it elaborates on some of the unique characteristics and business model adaptations that are needed to incorporate climate-change considerations into decision-making processes, including capital allocation, loan approval, portfolio monitoring and reporting. In this way, business models can become more economically efficient and strategically resilient to climate risk and equipped to deliver long-term sustainability and value creation.

A new framework for imagining the climate commons? The case of a Green New Deal in the US

The Green New Deal is arguably the most ambitious climate policy platform to gain legislative traction in the U.S. to date. A pioneering policy framework in its holistic consideration of climate change, social justice, and economic reform, the resolution would have vast implications for commons governance regimes if enacted. Planning theorists have long debated how to manage the global commons, and this paper adds to that conversation by assessing the Green New Deal’s theoretical underpinnings. Our analysis suggests that in practice, “top-down” Hardinian and “bottom-up” post-Hardinian commons theory coexist, as market and state-based interventions act as layers in the nested enterprises necessary for the formation of a polycentric approach to climate governance. This finding presents a novel theoretical perspective for studying the commons, specifically as we consider the influence of theory on developing policy imagination.

Relationship between Climate Change and Health Sector Planning

Abstract Climate change and its impact on the environment will have negative effects on health worldwide. National health strategies and plans (NHSPs) play an essential role in defining the future of a country's health system. It remains unknown whether and how NHSPs take climate change and related health risks into account and if this is done by countries that are most affected by climate change. This study aims (1) to understand the content of NHSPs with regard to climate change, (2) to assess the characteristics of countries with NHSPs that take climate change into account and (3) to analyze the factors that influence countries addressing climate change in NHSPs. NHSPs from 101 countries were studied. Keyword searches of NHSPs were used to identify concepts linked to climate change and related health risks. NHSPs were classified into red (no consideration of climate change), yellow (discussion of climate issues) and green (yellow + discussion of adaptation strategies). Two logistic regression models were conducted to analyze the relationship between NHSP categorization and potential explanatory factors, such as wealth (GNI/capita), Climate Risk, Climate Vulnerability or Climate Change-related Health Risk. Climate change is addressed in 66 NHSPs but only 38 NHSPs propose adaptation strategies (green category). African and low-income countries tend to address climate change in their NHSPs more frequently than high-income countries. The regression analysis found that NHSPs are more likely to address climate change (green and yellow) if countries face a higher degree of climate risk and climate vulnerability. No statistically significant association was found for climate change-related health risk and gross national income. Only about one third of all analyzed NHSPs discussed both the effects of climate change and potential adaptation measures. Climate change is addressed mostly by NHSPs of countries strongly affected by climate change. Key messages NHSPs could potentially provide strategic direction for health systems to adapt to climate change. NHSPs of many countries do not discuss how to adapt the health system to climate change.

The Road to Net Zero: A Case Study of Innovative Technologies and Policy Changes Used at a Medium-Sized University to Achieve Czero by 2030

The need for the world to follow a more carbon-neutral path is clear, with growing evidence highlighting the existential threat posed by unregulated GHG emissions. Responsibility for achieving this does not only lie with policy makers but is shared with all stakeholders including governments, private sectors, charities and civil society as a whole. Several methodological approaches have been developed to set emission reduction targets, including the Science-Based Targets Initiative (SBTi). However, it is yet to be widely adopted, and as thought leaders in the field, universities must take a lead in its interpretation and application. This study is reported from the perspective of a UK university, which is adopting climate change considerations to facilitate achieving Czero by 2030 and will act as an exemplar case. We calculate baseline emissions, science-based reduction targets for different carbon emission reduction methods and options in terms of financing emission reduction pathways at present and in the future. The study outcomes show that incorporating a SBTi methodology can serve as insight into other medium-sized organisations and universities wishing to develop a net-zero pathway. These results have been summarised into a series of recommendations.

Planning urban energy systems adapting to extreme weather

• Urban energy systems are planned considering extreme weather events (EWE). • A flexible and efficient two-layer framework is developed with generality. • Increasing supply or deploying storage can ensure energy supply during EWE. • ‘Storage Prior’ heuristics requires 2.8% extra cost for deploying storage. • ‘Supply Prior’ heuristics needs 5.4% extra cost for expanding gas power capacity. In the context of increasing urbanization and climate change globally, urban energy systems (UES) planning needs adequate consideration of climate change, particularly to ensure energy supply during extreme weather events (EWE) such as heatwaves, floods, and typhoons. Here we propose a two-layer modeling framework for UES planning considering the impact of EWE. An application of the framework to a typical coastal city of Xiamen, China reveals that deploying energy storage (i.e., pumped hydro and battery) offers significant flexibility to ensure the critical demand is met during typhoon as a typical EWE and avoids over investment in supply technologies. This requires an extra 2.8% total cost on investment and operation of UES for 20 years. Planning energy systems with proper consideration of EWE can ensure robust urban energy services even with increasing penetration of fluctuating renewables, and we offer a flexible and computationally efficient paradigm for UES planning considering the impact of EWE.

Leading or lagging: How well are climate change considerations being incorporated into Canadian fisheries management?

In response to fisheries declines and delayed population recoveries, many management agencies globally are integrating alternative strategies that incorporate precautionary and ecosystem considerations, increasingly focusing on climate variability and change. Here, we quantitatively evaluate how these themes have been incorporated into the science and management plans for Canada’s fisheries by analyzing the content of 905 research and management documents published by the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) for the Atlantic and Eastern Arctic regions. We found that the precautionary approach was mentioned much more frequently (44%) than climate change (11%) or ecosystem approaches to fisheries management (1%). Of research documents that mentioned climate change, 61% contained only a single reference to it, suggesting that it is not quantitatively evaluated in the science that informs the advisory and decision-making processes. Most references to climate change in the DFO research documents expressed high uncertainty of how climate change would impact the stock dynamics. We propose explanations for this and discuss approaches for increasing the incorporation of these themes into Canada’s fishery management.

The intersection of economic demand for ecosystem services and public policy: A watershed case study exploring implications for social-ecological resilience

Regional economies depend, to varying degrees, on water-based ecosystem services. As growing populations and other pressures increasingly stress underlying ecosystems, it is imperative that society better understand the linkages between economic and ecological systems, and how policy seeks to mediate competing interests. However, detailed analysis is often beyond the reach of resource-constrained local governments. Two general principles are proposed for conceptualizing linkages between ecological and economic systems. These principles are used to reformulate an existing ecosystem services classification system, which is then applied to the Mississippi Valley watershed in Ontario, Canada, to identify areas of high economic demand for water-based ecosystem services. Incorporating upstream–downstream linkages and climate change considerations, the extant policy framework is assessed for its ability to manage these systems-based considerations, informing a discussion of how policy, property rights, and other system attributes could combine to drawdown ecological resources and undermine the opportunity for others to access needed ecosystem services. This has the potential to create feedback and exacerbate resilience challenges or, with improved understanding of policy linkages, inform countermeasures to improve ecosystem management.

Multi-objective building design optimization considering the effects of long-term climate change

Building performance is heavily influenced by weather conditions. Though the climate is changing vastly, few building performance optimizations (BPO) consider global warming over the life expectancy of the buildings. This paper develops a novel multi-objective BPO framework by the using simulation-based surrogate models under the future weather conditions that are determined by morphing the typical meteorological year (TMY) data. This framework is adopted to optimize a typical classroom in a hot and humid area under the future weather scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The energy, thermal comfort and daylighting performances with and without considering the climate changes in the optimizations are compared and their notable differences are discussed. Under future climate, the optimization considering the future climate change improves the building performances significantly compared to the optimization without any climate change considerations (i.e., using the historical TMY). Especially, the winter discomfort hours in RCP4.5 and 8.5 decrease by 7.4% and 13.3%, respectively, when such future climate changes are considered in the BPOs, compared to the BPOs using the historical TMY data. The results show that BPO without considering climate change effects may cause non-negligible uncertainties. The proposed method can effectively improve the building performance in a changing climate.

Assessing road network resilience: An accessibility comparative analysis

In this study, we measure the resilience of the road networks in two Mediterranean regions: Valencia (Spain) and Sardinia (Italy). We apply a framework that is able to monitor the deterioration in territorial accessibility of the two systems in response to the cumulative elimination of sections. Road sections are removed according to different elimination types: random order, deterministic order of criticality, and deterministic order in areas at high risk of flooding. The results show that the Sardinian network is more resilient than the Valencian network, despite its poorer quality. We demonstrate that the framework can integrate climate change considerations in the resilience assessment. As the framework identifies the most critical sections, the method can be adopted as a support system by transport planners and policy makers.

Examining climate change and sustainable/fast fashion in the 21st century: ‘Trash the Runway’

Abstract We interrogate fast fashion in the 21st century in the context of a changing climate, assessing emergent trends in sustainable fashion as an alternative consumption pathway through the annual ‘Trash the Runway’ event in Boulder, Colorado. In this research, we interviewed and surveyed designers and analyzed workshop activities that led up to their annual fashion show. We also interviewed and surveyed students at the University of Colorado who worked with designers to produce short films about them and their work. The project centers on decolonial practice by providing —who are often marginalized in decision-making processes—a stage to articulate policy and behavior changes to address climate change and sustainability. We found designers expressed reticence before the workshops and events to speak about climate change in everyday life, yet their design work creatively spoke powerfully for them, and they expressed less discomfort after the experience, while they advanced their skillset as climate communicators. Moreover, we found both designers and student partners reported that they think climate change will impact people greatly in the future. Also, while comparatively fewer respondents reported that climate change impacts them personally, our findings showed those noting personal impacts nearly doubled after participation in the sustainable fashion project. Although engagement with sustainable fashion helps to defetishize production processes and link consumption habits with awareness of climate and environmental change, more creative work should be done through fast- and sustainable-fashion endeavors to draw out spatial and temporal considerations of climate change threats here and now.

Piloting a Climate-Change Adaptation Index on US National Forest Lands

Abstract Climate change presents a novel and significant threat to the sustainability of forest ecosystems worldwide. The United States Forest Service (USFS) has conducted climate change vulnerability assessments for much of the 193 million acres of national forest lands it manages, yet little to no research exists on the degree to which management units have adopted considerations of climate change into planning or project implementation. In response to this knowledge gap, we piloted a survey instrument in USFS Region 1 (Northern region) and Region 6 (Pacific Northwest region) to determine criteria for assessing the degree to which national forests integrate climate-change considerations into their management planning and activities. Our resulting climate-change adaptation index provides an efficient quantitative approach for identifying where, how, and, potentially, why some national forests are making more progress toward incorporating climate-change adaptations into forest planning and management.

Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change

The interest in renewable energy to replace fossil fuel is increasing as the problem caused by climate change has become more severe. In this study, small hydropower (SHP) was evaluated as a resource with high development value because of its high energy density compared to other renewable energy sources. SHP may be an attractive and sustainable power generation environmental perspective because of its potential to be found in small rivers and streams. The power generation potential could be estimated based on the discharge in the river basin. Since the river discharge depends on the climate conditions, the hydropower generation potential changes sensitively according to climate variability. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the SHP potential in consideration of future climate change. In this study, the future prospect of SHP potential is simulated for the period of 2021 to 2100 considering the climate change in three hydropower plants of Deoksong, Hanseok, and Socheon stations, Korea. The results show that SHP potential for the near future (2021 to 2040) shows a tendency to be increased, and the highest increase is 23.4% at the Deoksong SPH plant. Through the result of future prospect, we have shown that hydroelectric power generation capacity or SHP potential will be increased in the future. Therefore, we believe that it is necessary to revitalize the development of SHP to expand the use of renewable energy. In addition, a methodology presented in this study could be used for the future prospect of the SHP potential.

A Review of Climate Change Impacts on the USA-Mexico Transboundary Santa Cruz River Basin

In the parched Upper Santa Cruz River Basin (USCRB), a binational USA–Mexico basin, the water resources depend on rainfall-triggered infrequent flow events in ephemeral channels to recharge its storage-limited aquifers. In-situ data from the basin highlight a year-round warming trend since the 1980s and a concerning decline in average precipitation (streamflow) from 1955–2000 to 2001–2020 by 50% (87.6%) and 17% (63%) during the winter and summer, respectively. Binational sustainable management of the basins water resources requires a careful consideration of prospective climatic changes. In this article we review relevant studies with climate projections for the mid-21st century of four weather systems that affect the region’s precipitation. First, the North American Monsoon (NAM) weather system accounts for ~60% of the region’s annual rainfall. The total NAM precipitation is projected to decline while heavy rainfall events are expected to intensify. Second, the frequency of the pacific cold fronts, the region’s prevalent source of winter precipitation, is projected to decline. Third, the frequency and intensity of future atmospheric rivers, a weather system that brings winter rainfall to the region, are projected to increase. Fourth, the frequency and intensity of large eastern pacific tropical cyclones (TC) are expected to increase. On rare occasions, remnants of TC make their way to the USCRB to cause storms with considerable impact on the region’s water resources. In contrast to the high confidence projections for the warming trend to persist throughout the mid-21st century, the precipitation projections of these four weather systems affecting the region encompass large uncertainties and studies have often reported contradicting trends. An added source of uncertainty is that the USCRB is located at the periphery of the four rain-bearing weather systems and small mesoscale changes in these weather systems may have accentuated impacts on their edges. Despite the high uncertainty in the projections of future precipitation, the early 21st century drying trend and the projected mid-21st century decline in precipitation events serve as a pressing call for planning and actions to attain sustainable water resources management that reliably satisfies future demands.