Climate Change Canada Research Articles

The added value of stochastic spatial disaggregation for short-term rainfall forecasts currently available in Canada

Several businesses and industries rely on rainfall forecasts to support their day-to-day operations. To deal with the uncertainty associated with rainfall forecast, some meteorological organisations have developed products, such as ensemble forecasts. However, due to the intensive computational requirements of ensemble forecasts, the spatial resolution remains coarse. For example, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) data is freely available on a 1-degree grid (about 100km), while those of the so-called High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) are available on a 2.5-km grid (about 40 times finer). Potential users are then left with the option of using either a high-resolution rainfall forecast without uncertainty estimation and/or an ensemble with a spectrum of plausible rainfall values, but at a coarser spatial scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added value of coupling the Gibbs Sampling Disaggregation Model (GSDM) with ECCC products to provide accurate, precise and consistent rainfall estimates at a fine spatial resolution (10-km) within a forecast framework (6-h). For 30, 6-h, rainfall events occurring within a 40,000-km2 area (Québec, Canada), results show that, using 100-km aggregated reference rainfall depths as input, statistics of the rainfall fields generated by GSDM were close to those of the 10-km reference field. However, in forecast mode, GSDM outcomes inherit of the ECCC forecast biases, resulting in a poor performance when GEPS data were used as input, mainly due to the inherent rainfall depth distribution of the latter product. Better performance was achieved when the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), available on a 10-km grid and aggregated at 100-km, was used as input to GSDM. Nevertheless, most of the analyzed ensemble forecasts were weakly consistent. Some areas of improvement are identified herein.

Sources of particulate matter components in the Athabasca oil sands region: investigation through a comparison of trace element measurement methodologies

Abstract. The province of Alberta, Canada, is home to three oil sands regions which, combined, contain the third largest deposit of oil in the world. Of these, the Athabasca oil sands region is the largest. As part of Environment and Climate Change Canada's program in support of the Joint Canada-Alberta Implementation Plan for Oil Sands Monitoring program, concentrations of trace elements in PM2. 5 (particulate matter smaller than 2.5 µm in diameter) were measured through two campaigns that involved different methodologies: a long-term filter campaign and a short-term intensive campaign. In the long-term campaign, 24 h filter samples were collected once every 6 days over a 2-year period (December 2010–November 2012) at three air monitoring stations in the regional municipality of Wood Buffalo. For the intensive campaign (August 2013), hourly measurements were made with an online instrument at one air monitoring station; daily filter samples were also collected. The hourly and 24 h filter data were analyzed individually using positive matrix factorization. Seven emission sources of PM2. 5 trace elements were thereby identified: two types of upgrader emissions, soil, haul road dust, biomass burning, and two sources of mixed origin. The upgrader emissions, soil, and haul road dust sources were identified through both the methodologies and both methodologies identified a mixed source, but these exhibited more differences than similarities. The second upgrader emissions and biomass burning sources were only resolved by the hourly and filter methodologies, respectively. The similarity of the receptor modeling results from the two methodologies provided reassurance as to the identity of the sources. Overall, much of the PM2. 5-related trace elements were found to be anthropogenic, or at least to be aerosolized through anthropogenic activities. These emissions may in part explain the previously reported higher levels of trace elements in snow, water, and biota samples collected near the oil sands operations.

The U.S. National Blend of Models for Statistical Postprocessing of Probability of Precipitation and Deterministic Precipitation Amount

AbstractThe U.S. National Blend of Models provides statistically postprocessed, high-resolution multimodel ensemble guidance, providing National Weather Service forecasters with a calibrated, downscaled starting point for producing digital forecasts.Forecasts of 12-hourly probability of precipitation (POP12) over the contiguous United States are produced as follows: 1) Populate the forecast and analyze cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) to be used later in quantile mapping. Were every grid point processed without benefit of data from other points, 60 days of training data would likely be insufficient for estimating CDFs and adjusting the errors in the forecast. Accordingly, “supplemental” locations were identified for each grid point, and data from the supplemental locations were used to populate the forecast and analyzed CDFs used in the quantile mapping. 2) Load the real-time U.S. and Environment Canada (now known as Environment and Climate Change Canada) global deterministic and ensemble forecasts, interpolated to ⅛°. 3) Using CDFs from the past 60 days of data, apply a deterministic quantile mapping to the ensemble forecasts. 4) Dress the resulting ensemble with random noise. 5) Generate probabilities from the ensemble relative frequency. 6) Spatially smooth the forecast using a Savitzky–Golay smoother, applying more smoothing in flatter areas.Forecasts of 6-hourly quantitative precipitation (QPF06) are more simply produced as follows: 1) Form a grand ensemble mean, again interpolated to ⅛°. 2) Quantile map the mean forecast using CDFs of the ensemble mean and analyzed distributions. 3) Spatially smooth the field, similar to POP12.Results for spring 2016 are provided, demonstrating that the postprocessing improves POP12 reliability and skill, as well as the deterministic forecast bias, while maintaining sharpness and spatial detail.

Pilot study investigating ambient air toxics emissions near a Canadian kraft pulp and paper facility in Pictou County, Nova Scotia.

Air toxics are airborne pollutants known or suspected to cause cancer or other serious health effects, including certain volatile organic compounds (VOCs), prioritized by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). While several EPA-designated air toxics are monitored at a subset of Canadian National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS) sites, Canada has no specific "air toxics" control priorities. Although pulp and paper (P&P) mills are major industrial emitters of air pollutants, few studies quantified the spectrum of air quality exposures. Moreover, most NAPS monitoring sites are in urban centers; in contrast, rural NAPS sites are sparse with few exposure risk records. The objective of this pilot study was to investigate prioritized air toxic ambient VOC concentrations using NAPS hourly emissions data from a rural Pictou, Nova Scotia Kraft P&P town to document concentration levels, and to determine whether these concentrations correlated with wind direction at the NAPS site (located southwest of the mill). Publicly accessible Environment and Climate Change Canada data (VOC concentrations [Granton NAPS ID: 31201] and local meteorological conditions [Caribou Point]) were examined using temporal (2006-2013) and spatial analytic methods. Results revealed several VOCs (1,3-butadiene, benzene, and carbon tetrachloride) routinely exceeded EPA air toxics-associated cancer risk thresholds. 1,3-Butadiene and tetrachloroethylene were significantly higher (p<0.05) when prevailing wind direction blew from the northeast and the mill towards the NAPS site. Conversely, when prevailing winds originated from the southwest towards the mill, higher median VOC air toxics concentrations at the NAPS site, except carbon tetrachloride, were not observed. Despite study limitations, this is one of few investigations documenting elevated concentrations of certain VOCs air toxics to be associated with P&P emissions in a community. Findings support the need for more research on the extent to which air toxics emissions exist in P&P towns and contribute to poor health in nearby communities.

Standard method design considerations for semi-quantification of total naphthenic acids in oil sands process affected water by mass spectrometry: A review

Naphthenic acids are a complex class of thousands of naturally occurring aliphatic and alicyclic carboxylic acids found in oil sands bitumen and in the wastewater generated from bitumen processing. Dozens of analytical methods have been developed for the semiquantification of total naphthenic acids in water samples. However, different methods can give different results, prompting investigation into the comparability of the many methods. A review of important methodological features for analyzing total naphthenic acids is presented and informs the design of future standard methods for the semiquantification of total naphthenic acids using mass spectrometry. The design considerations presented are a synthesis of discussions from an Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) led taskforce of 10 laboratory experts from government, industry and academia during April 2016 and subsequent discussions between University of British Columbia and ECCC representatives. Matters considered are: extraction method, solvent, pH, and temperature; analysis instrumentation and resolution; choice of calibration standards; use of surrogate and internal standards; and use of online or offline separation prior to analysis. The design considerations are amenable to both time-of-flight and Orbitrap mass spectrometers.

Re‐evaluation of the hydrogen stable isotopic composition of keratin calibration standards for wildlife and forensic science applications

Determination of non-exchangeable hydrogen isotopic compositions (δ2 H values) of bulk complex organic materials is difficult due to uncontrolled H isotope exchange between the organic material and ambient water vapor. A number of calibration keratinous materials with carefully measured hydrogen isotopic compositions of the non-exchangeable fraction were proposed to enable stable isotope laboratories to normalize their 2 H measurements. However, it was recently reported that high-temperature carbon-reactor methods for measuring the hydrogen isotopic composition of nitrogenous organic materials is biased by the production of HCN in the reactor. As a result, the reported values of these calibration materials needed to be re-evaluated. We evaluated the non-exchangeable δ2 HVSMOW values of keratins EC1 (CBS) and EC2 (KHS), USGS hair standards, and a range of other nitrogenous widely used organic laboratory calibration materials (collagen and chitin) using pre-treatment with a preparation device designed to eliminate residual moisture and quantify exchangeable H. The revised non-exchangeable δ2 HVSMOW values of EC-1 (CBS) and EC-2 (KHS) keratin standard materials were -157.0±0.9 and -35.3±1.1 ‰, respectively. The revised values of USGS42 and USGS43 were -72.2±0.9 and -44.2±1.0 ‰, respectively, in excellent agreement with previous results. For routine H isotope analyses, with proper sample pre-treatment, we show that the Comparative Equilibration approach can provide accurate and reproducible non-exchangeable δ2 H values among laboratories regardless of the reactor type used. © 2017 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Reproduced with the permission of the Environment and Climate Change Canada.

Surface data assimilation of chemical compounds over North America and its impact on air quality and Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) forecasts

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of initializing GEM-MACH, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s air quality (AQ) forecast model, with multi-pollutant surface objective analyses (MPSOA). A series of 48-h air quality forecasts were launched for July 2012 (summer case) and January 2014 (winter case) for ozone, NO2, and PM2.5. In this setup, the GEM-MACH model (version 1.3.8.2) was initialized with surface analysis increments (from MPSOA) which were projected in the vertical by applying an appropriate fractional weighting in order to obtain 3D analyses in the lower troposphere. Here, we have used a methodology based on sensitivity tests to obtain the optimum vertical correlation length (VCL). Overall, results showed that for PM2.5, more specifically for sulfate and crustal materials, AQ forecasts initialized with MPSOA showed a very significant improvement compared to forecasts without data assimilation, which extended beyond 48 h in all seasons. Initializing the model with ozone analyses also had a significant impact but on a shorter time scale than that of PM2.5. Finally, assimilation of NO2 was found to have much less impact than longer-lived species. The impact of simultaneous assimilation of the three pollutants (PM2.5, ozone, and NO2) was also examined and found very significant in reducing the total error of the Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) over 48 h and beyond. We suggest that the period over which there is a significant improvement due to assimilation could be an adequate measure of the pollutant atmospheric lifetime.

Four sympatrically nesting auks show clear resource segregation in their foraging environment

MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsTheme Sections MEPS 572:243-254 (2017) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12144 Four sympatrically nesting auks show clear resource segregation in their foraging environment Isabeau Pratte1,*, Gregory J. Robertson2, Mark L. Mallory1 1Department of Biology, Acadia University, Wolfville, Nova Scotia B4P 2R6, Canada 2Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Mount Pearl, Newfoundland A1N 4T3, Canada *Corresponding author: pratteisabeau@gmail.com ABSTRACT: Auks share ecological similarities and are often found in sympatrically nesting assemblages at suitable nesting sites. It is expected that co-existing species would have evolved strategies to reduce niche overlap in response to resource competition. The presence of Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, razorbills Alca torda, thick-billed murres Uria lomvia and common murres U. aalge at the Gannet Islands, Labrador, is an opportunity to study interspecific interactions in a major seabird community. We compared the foraging movements of adult breeding birds and the diet of the birds inferred through (1) stable isotopes in the blood of adults, and (2) prey delivered to the chicks, as dimensions in the foraging niche among these 4 auks. Our results revealed that puffins and thick-billed murres headed offshore to forage, while razorbills and common murres were more coastal, heading towards mainland Labrador. The patterns of spatial segregation found among coastal and pelagic birds were mirrored by their stable isotope ratios, with one group of species foraging at a higher trophic level of an inshore food web and the other foraging on a lower trophic level of an offshore, pelagic food web. The ‘pelagic’ species segregated by prey choice for their chicks while differential alternate prey selection was the source of segregation between the ‘coastal’ species. Our research highlights the importance of segregation patterns in both spatial and diet dimensions of the foraging niche among the 4 auks—a potential mechanism for reducing interspecific competition among ecologically similar seabirds and explaining the persistence of such seabird assemblages through time. KEY WORDS: Seabird · Foraging distribution · Niche overlap · Diet · Isotopic niche Full text in pdf format Supplementary material PreviousNextCite this article as: Pratte I, Robertson GJ, Mallory ML (2017) Four sympatrically nesting auks show clear resource segregation in their foraging environment. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 572:243-254. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12144 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in MEPS Vol. 572. Online publication date: May 31, 2017 Print ISSN: 0171-8630; Online ISSN: 1616-1599 Copyright © 2017 Inter-Research.

Adjusted Daily Rainfall and Snowfall Data for Canada

ABSTRACTThis article documents how Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Adjusted Daily Rainfall and Snowfall (AdjDlyRS) dataset was developed. The adjustments include (i) conversion of ruler measurements of snowfall to its water equivalent using a previously developed snow water equivalent (SWE) ratio map for Canada; (ii) corrections for gauge-related issues including undercatch and evaporation caused by wind effects and gauge-specific wetting loss, as well as for trace precipitation amounts, using previously developed procedures for Canada. Various data flags (e.g., accumulation flags) were also treated. This dataset contains all Canadian stations reporting daily rainfall and snowfall for which we have metadata to implement the adjustments. The length of the data record varies from one station to another, starting as early as 1840. The results show that the original unadjusted total precipitation data in Environment and Climate Change Canada’s digital archive underestimate the total precipitation in northeastern Canada by more than 25% and by about 10–15% in most of southern Canada. Such large underestimates make the original data unsuitable for water availability and/or balance studies or for numerical model validation, among many other applications. The use of the assumed 10:1 SWE ratio for the archived total precipitation data is the primary cause of the underestimate, which is most severe in northeastern Canada. The trace correction adds 5–20% to precipitation values in northern Canada but less than 5% in southern Canada. The gauge-related corrections do not show an organized spatial pattern but add 5–10% to the precipitation at 312 stations. Long runs (≥3 months) of miscoded missing values were also identified and corrected.The latest version of the AdjDlyRS dataset is available from the Canadian Open Data Portal; currently it is version 2016, which contains 3346 stations and covers the period from station inception to February 2016. This dataset is suitable for producing gridded precipitation datasets, as well as other applications.

Influence of Open Water Bodies on the Modeling of Summertime Convection over the Canadian Prairies

Abstract There are numerous water features on the Canadian landscapes that are not monitored. Specifically, there are water bodies over the prairies and Canadian shield regions of North America that are ephemeral in nature and could have a significant influence on convective storm generation and local weather patterns through turbulent exchanges of sensible and latent heat between the land and the atmosphere. In this study a series of numerical experiments is performed with Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model at 2.5-km grid spacing to examine the sensitivity of the atmospheric boundary layer and the resulting precipitation to the presence of open water bodies. Operationally, the land–water fraction in GEM is specified by means of static geophysical databases that do not change with time. Uncertainty is introduced in this study into this land–water fraction and the sensitivity of the resulting precipitation is quantified for a convective precipitation event occurring over the Canadian Prairies in the summer of 2014. The results indicate that with an increase in open water bodies, accumulated precipitation, peak precipitation amounts, and intensities decrease. Moreover, shifts are seen in times of peak for both precipitation amounts and intensities, in the order of increasing wetness. Additionally, with an increase in open water bodies, convective available potential energy decreases and convective inhibition increases, indicating suppression of forcing for convective precipitation.

Verification of 24-h Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the Pacific Northwest from a High-Resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter System

Abstract Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has recently developed an experimental high-resolution EnKF (HREnKF) regional ensemble prediction system, which it tested over the Pacific Northwest of North America for the first half of February 2011. The HREnKF has 2.5-km horizontal grid spacing and assimilates surface and upper-air observations every hour. To determine the benefits of the HREnKF over less expensive alternatives, its 24-h quantitative precipitation forecasts are compared with those from a lower-resolution (15 km) regional ensemble Kalman filter (REnKF) system and to ensembles directly downscaled from the REnKF using the same grid as the HREnKF but with no additional data assimilation (DS). The forecasts are verified against rain gauge observations and gridded precipitation analyses, the latter of which are characterized by uncertainties of comparable magnitude to the model forecast errors. Nonetheless, both deterministic and probabilistic verification indicates robust improvements in forecast skill owing to the finer grids of the HREnKF and DS. The HREnKF exhibits a further improvement in performance over the DS in the first few forecast hours, suggesting a modest positive impact of data assimilation. However, this improvement is not statistically significant and may be attributable to other factors.

Environment Canada SCAT Manual 3rd Edition: What’s New in SCAT?

AbstractThe Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Technique (SCAT) is an accepted concept for the description and documentation of oiled shorelines. The field data provide systematic, science-based information that is evaluated by a spill management team as they decide on appropriate shoreline response priorities, treatment techniques, and treatment completion end points. The process is flexible and adaptable for spill responses of different scales and in the full range of Canadian coastal environments. The Third Edition of the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) SCAT Manual provides a current (2016) best practice guide for Canadian shorelinesthat, with appropriate environmental modifications, can be applied globally.The purpose of the revised SCAT Manual is to provide advice and guidance as a shoreline assessment survey program and a field and data management plan are developed for each unique spill situation. The Manual is organized to describe the key elements of:the organization and management of SCAT programs;field SCAT data collection strategies and techniques;SCAT data management and post-field information processing; andthe recommendations and decisions that depend on the SCAT field data.The Appendices include a Field Job Aid, which presents standard SCAT shoreline and oiling terms and definitions and a set of standard field data forms that may be used to document shoreline oiling, and a Management Job Aid to assist with management, planning, and logistics.

Canine Oil Detection (K9-SCAT) following 2015 Releases from the T/V Arrow Wreck

Abstract The T/V Arrow sank in 1970, spilling Bunker C fuel oil into Chedabucto Bay, Nova Scotia. In the summer and fall of 2015, residual oil leaked from the sunken vessel and re-oiled shorelines in the Bay. A K9-SCAT field study, funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), was conducted in June 2016 to assess the capability of detection canines to locate stranded oil following the new releases. The canine detected small amounts of weathered surface oil that were barely visible, and in some cases, not visible, to the SCAT-trained observers, as well as subsurface oil on mixed- and coarse-sediment beaches. The average speed of a survey, in terms of the length of shoreline covered, varied depending on the shore type and the width of the survey band. The most challenging site was a steep bedrock shoreline with an alongshore survey rate of 0.2 linear km/hour. Typical alongshore coverage rates for the wide, mixed sediment were in the range 0.7 to 1.2 linear km/hour, and for both straight, wide sand beaches were 1.2 km/hour. The highest alongshore rate was 2.4 linear km/hour for the narrow beach on Janvrin Island. The successful detection of 2015 T/V Arrow cargo oil (both naturally stranded and intentionally planted) on selected Chedabucto Bay shorelines indicates that there is a low risk, high confidence level that the canine did not miss subsurface oil, although that possibility may exist. Where the canine made an alert and no surface oil was visible, chemical analyses of sediment samples indicated that weathered petroleum hydrocarbons were present at those locations and, therefore, the canine had made correct alerts. The results provide further “proof of concept” for K9-SCAT teams to support surface and subsurface oil detection during traditional shoreline assessment surveys.

Mapping the penetration and retention potential of two weathered diluted bitumen crude oils for the shorelines of Northern British Columbia, Canada

With the increase in bitumen production from Alberta's oil sands, there is a related increase in the transport of non-conventional crude oil throughout Canada including proposed pipeline projects to move diluted bitumen (dilbit) to facilities on the East and West coast of Canada. While the behaviour of conventional oil is well known, little information is available about the fate of any potential dilbit spills on marine shorelines. As a part of Enhancing Marine Safety Strategy launched in 2013 by the Government of Canada, a R&amp;D program has been developed by the Emergencies Sciences and Technology Section (ESTS) from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) to study the behaviour of non-conventional oil. More precisely, one of the objectives is to develop tools to help oil spill responders to predict the fate of dilbit on shorelines of Northern British Columbia (BC). To address this objective, we collected data from three sources; BC segmentation of the upper intertidal zone for the Douglas Channel and Haida Gwaii Island, particle size analysis results of sediment samples collected directly from Northern BC shoreline and meso-scale laboratory research results on the penetration and retention of dilbit in different type of sediment. This last experiment was conducted in laboratory by the contractor Coastal and Ocean Resources Inc. to estimate penetration (cm) and retention (% of the loading) of different weather dilbit (AWB [18% loss by weights] and CLB [15% loss by weight]) in different types of sediments (from coarse sand to very large pebble). These previous data were combined to associate each shoreline type with dilbit penetration and retention data. For each shoreline type, we did a quantitative (penetration) and qualitative (retention) estimation of dilbit properties. The estimations were also visually represented on ArcMap 9.1. In Northern British Columbia, most of the shoreline is associated with low penetration and low retention corresponding to bedrock substrate. Conversely, high penetration and retention is mainly associated with coarse sediments like pebble/cobble beaches. These shoreline types represent an indicator of difficulty of cleanup operations. Likewise, high retention can be found in coarse sediments but also in sensitive shorelines like marshes. So these maps can be used as an operational tool to establish the priorities and to determine the best strategy for the shoreline cleanup methods (penetration maps), but also as an indicator of shoreline sensitivity (retention maps).

Potential Health and Safety Concerns for Oil spill Responders Working in Proximity to Spills of Unconventional Crude Oil

Abstract 2017-231 Health and safety (H&amp;S) of on-site personnel is important to government and industry alike and applied throughout all response activities. Unconventional crude oil is transported throughout Canada by rail, road, marine and pipeline in increasing volumes. Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Emergencies Science and Technology (ESTS) has undertaken a three-year study that reviews H&amp;S concerns and develop tools to address identified gaps for government personnel who are required to conduct their work in close proximity to unconventional diluted bitumen (dilbit) spills. The literature search study of H&amp;S issues assessed the chemical composition of two dilbit crude oils Access Western Blend and Cold Lake Bitumen, their fate and behavior during a spill and potential exposure pathways for on-site responders. Overall, it was noted that the characteristics relevant to H&amp;S of unconventional crude oils can differ from those typical of conventional crude oils primarily as a result of the small molecular weight, volatile compounds in the condensate portion of dilbit. Evaporation of the dilbit could result in the rapid transfer of 12 to 16% by weight of the mass to air within the initial 6 hours of a spill. Consequently, there is a potential inhalation and contact threat to initial responders under certain significant spill scenarios. Recommendations for air monitoring instrumentation, chemical protective clothing, medical monitoring and decontamination protocols were put forth. The literature search study was followed by work to (1) undertake a task hazard analysis for ECCC personnel then develop safe work procedures; and (2) to update training guidance documents for on-site safety planning, including protective equipment and other tools for use by ECCC staff.

Meso-scale studies on the penetration and retention of diluted bitumen in different types of shorelines, Northern British Columbia, Canada

ABSTRACT 2017-210 Compared to conventional oil, diluted bitumen (dilbit) spills in the environment could be challenging due to the rapid increase in density, viscosity and adhesion properties associated with accelerated weathering. To enhance the response in case of an accidental dilbit spill in the marine environment, a Research &amp; Development program has been developed by the Emergencies Science and Technology Section (ESTS) of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) as a part of the Federal Government’s Enhancing Marine Safety Strategy. One of the goals of this project was to develop science-based decision support for a dilbit spill to the shorelines of northern British Columbia (BC). In response to this objective, the contractor Coastal and Ocean Resources Inc. has conducted a meso-scale Diluted Bitumen Sediment Interactions Experiments (Bit_EX) to evaluate the potential of penetration and retention of dilbit in different types of sediments. In total, two dilbits, Access Western Blend (AWB) and Cold Lake Blend (CLB) at three weathered states (0%, 17% and 26% mass loss), were tested against seven types of sediments (from coarse sand to very large pebble). The adhesion of dilbit on bare cobbles and on cobbles covered with barnacles and seaweed (fucus) was also tested for different time of exposure. Results showed that unweathered (or fresh) dilbit has its maximum penetration and retention in coarse sand or granule whereas moderately weathered dilbit has maximum penetration and retention in small pebbles or larger sediment sizes. Heavily weathered dilbits have very limited penetration in finer sediments but are expected to penetrate and have high retention in permeable coarse sediments. Moreover, we have observed that dilbit adherence could be enhanced with longer drying time. In northern BC, the bedrock platforms with thin overlays of various types of sediment, from sand to boulders, are common and presents a complex case for treatment. Because dilbit characteristics change rapidly, early SCAT survey data combined with rapid decision and operational response in the initial stages of the spill could reduce dilbit retention and adhesion. The Bit_EX also suggests that existing techniques for protection and cleanup of conventional oil on shorelines could be applicable or can be adjusted for dilbit spills. This experiment provides information suitable to a first response guide for protecting and cleaning shorelines in case of bitumen spills in northern BC.

Sub-seasonal prediction over East Asia during boreal summer using the ECCC monthly forecasting system

A useful sub-seasonal forecast is of great societal and economical value in the highly populated East Asian region, especially during boreal summer when frequent extreme events such as heat waves and persistent heavy rainfalls occur. Despite recent interest and development in sub-seasonal prediction, it is still unclear how skillful dynamical forecasting systems are in East Asia beyond 2 weeks. In this study we evaluate the sub-seasonal prediction over East Asia during boreal summer in the operational monthly forecasting system of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).Results show that the climatological intra-seasonal oscillation (CISO) of East Asian summer monsoonis reasonably well captured. Statistically significant forecast skill of 2-meter air temperature (T2m) is achieved for all lead times up to week 4 (days 26–32) over East China and Northeast Asia, which is consistent with the skill in 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500). Significant forecast skill of precipitation, however, is limited to the week of days 5–11. Possible sources of predictability on the sub-seasonal time scale are analyzed. The weekly mean T2m anomaly over East China is found to be linked to an eastward propagating extratropical Rossby wave from the North Atlantic across Europe to East Asia. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also likely to influence the forecast skill of T2m at the sub-seasonal timescale over East Asia.

Developing a Convective-Scale EnKF Data Assimilation System for the Canadian MEOPAR Project

Abstract This study discusses the construction of a high-resolution ensemble Kalman filter system (the HREnKF) developed for the Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response (MEOPAR) network. The HREnKF runs at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km and is intended to provide forecasts at lead times up to 12 h. This system was adapted from the global EnKF system in operation at Environment and Climate Change Canada. As a first development step, only the most necessary modifications have been implemented. The changes include an hourly cycling frequency, smaller localization radii, and the explicit representation of microphysical processes. To assess its performance and orient future developments, the HREnKF was continuously cycled for a period of 12 days. Verification against surface observations reveals that the skill of the forecasts initialized from the HREnKF is comparable to that of control forecasts also integrated at a resolution of 2.5 km. A key component of this study is the comparison of correlation estimated from ensembles at resolutions of 2.5, 15, and 50 km. At 2.5 km, correlation lengths are smaller than those found at 15 and 50 km. These short correlation lengths demand a high observational density, which is not available over the west coast domain where the HREnKF was tested. The spatial and temporal variability of the correlations is also assessed for the HREnKF system. It is found that correlation patterns are complex and do not generally decrease monotonically away from the reference point around which they are estimated. This result is important as it indicates that separation distance may not be the ideal parameter to use as a basis for localization strategies.

Field-Scale Spatial Variability of Soil Moisture and L-Band Brightness Temperature from Land Surface Modeling

Abstract Although soil moisture is an essential variable within the Earth system and has been extensively investigated, there is still a limited understanding of its spatiotemporal distribution and variability. Thus, the objective of this study is to attempt to reproduce the spatial variability of soil moisture and brightness temperature as measured by point-based and airborne remote sensing measurements. To do so, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Surface Prediction System (SPS) is run at very high resolution (100 m) over a region of Manitoba (Canada) where an extensive soil moisture experiment took place in the summer of 2012 [SMAP Validation Experiment 2012 (SMAPVEX12)]. Results show that realistic finescale soil texture improves the quality of SPS outputs. Soil moisture spatial average evolution in time is well simulated by SPS. Simulated spatial variability is underestimated when compared to point-based measurements, although results are improved when examined domainwide versus comparisons using grid points corresponding to measurement sites. SPS brightness temperature fields compare well with remote sensing data in terms of spatial variability. It is shown that during drier periods, factors other than soil texture become important with respect to soil moisture spatial variability. However, during periods with plenty of precipitation, soil texture seems essential in improving simulated soil moisture spatial variability at high resolutions. These results support the conclusion that SPS could provide very high–resolution soil moisture products for research and operational purposes if high-resolution soil texture and vegetation products are made available on a larger scale.

The Canadian Oil Spill Shoreline Research Program: Establishing a Baseline Dataset for the Marine Coast of Northern British Columbia

Abstract 2017-182 The dispersal and weathering processes of crude and fuel oils have been studied for decades and significant scientific information has been published. However, the fate and behaviour of spilled nonconventional crude oil such as diluted bitumen products are less well understood. There is concern that a spill of the oil sands diluted bitumen may come into contact with marine shorelines as it is transported throughout Canada. There is uncertainty related to the fate of spilled diluted bitumen and potential interactions with shorelines. A Shoreline Oil Spill Research and Development Program was undertaken by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). In 2013, a 3-year study was initiated and focused on the marine shorelines of northern British Columbia (BC). Four field campaigns were conducted along the entire length of coast throughout the Douglas and Granville channels as well as Banks and Haida Gwaii islands. The field campaigns were used as an opportunity to develop and employ a new approach to collect and compile an extensive pre-spill baseline dataset. Data included an aerial survey with high definition video and a ground survey of representative shorelines where samples were collected and analyzed for petroleum hydrocarbons, carboxylic acid, pesticides, heavy metals, calcium carbonate and sediment grain size. Baseline levels of hydrocarbons in the sediment of the study areas were estimated based on the analysis of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH), n-alkanes ranging from n-C9 to n-C40, petroleum related biomarkers such as terpanes and steranes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their alkylated homologues (APAHs).