Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Research Articles

Adaptation strategies of paddy farmers to build resilience to climate change in kahama district, Tanzania

The study investigates the adaptation strategies used by the paddy farmers in Kahama District to increase their adaptability to climate change. The study focuses on four main objectives, including changed farming practices, changes in cropping practices, strategies used to adapt to climate change, and desired interventions to improve agricultural production and resilience to climate change. A mixed-methods strategy is used in the study to collect both quantitative and qualitative data. According to the data, paddy farmers in Kahama District have used a number of climate change adaptation strategies. These adaptations include modifications to irrigation techniques, timing adjustments for planting, seed variety changes, and fertilizer treatment adjustments. The study also reveals a change in crop systems, with farmers choosing drought-tolerant cultivars, intercropping, and crop diversification; increased water management practices, increased soil conservation practices, and informed decision-making through the use of climate information services are some of the strategies used by paddy farmers to adapt to climate change. The study also identifies the interventions that farmers want to see implemented, such as enhanced irrigation systems, workshops on climate-resilient farming techniques, access to resilient seed varieties, and dependable weather forecasting and climate information services. These findings show the paddy farmers in the Kahama District's proactive response to the problems posed by climate change and help to better understand the adaptation measures they have used. The study highlights the importance of assisting farmers in advancing their current strategies and knowledge while also attending to their unique requirements. Implementing desired actions, such as expanding climate information services, supplying training and access to robust seed varieties, and enhancing irrigation infrastructure, can significantly increase agricultural productivity and the region's resistance to climate change. For politicians, extension services, and development organizations looking to promote climate change adaptation and sustainable agriculture, these research findings have real-world applications. Paddy farmers' ability to adapt, agricultural output, and livelihood security in the face of climate change problems can all be improved by matching interventions and policies with their recognized needs and goals. Such activities can support attempts to achieve food security and sustainable development in the Kahama District and other areas, as well as the agricultural sector's overall resilience.

Wildfires and carbon budget of certain seasonally dry forests in India

AbstractGlobally, the increasing fire events in addition to climate change due to the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) as well as other greenhouse gases exerts huge pressure on natural resources and their management. This phenomenon is more severe in the tropical region due to increasing population, urbanization, industrialization, existing pressures, and limiting conditions. In the present study, carbon (C) stock, carbon sequestration (Cseq), CO2 mitigation potential, C budget, and C flux of the seasonally dry forest ecosystem of Chhattisgarh under the influence of wildfire in the protected area and its proximity were evaluated. Four sites namely, high fire zone (HFZ), medium fire zone (MFZ), low fire zone (LFZ), and non‐fire zone (NFZ) were selected and marked based on fire return intervals (frequency) and extent of damage. The present work is a novel approach that assesses the impact of different fire frequencies on C dynamics of fire‐affected zones. The stratified sampling technique was used within a permanent plot of 1 hectare. Forest stands on each site were analyzed using 10 randomly placed quadrats (each 10 × 10 m in size) and data were collected from each site. Across the sites higher tree density was observed at NFZ and the lowest at HFZ.Total tree biomass ranged between 116.0 and 358.4 t ha−1 across the fire regimes. Total vegetation C stock ranged between 59.1 and 169.5 t ha−1 in different sites. The C mitigation and Cseq potential ranged between 186.2 and 575.3 t ha−1, and 7.1 and 15.9 t ha−1, respectively being highest in NFZ and lowest in HFZ. The species such as Anogeissus latifolia, Buchanania lanzan, Shorea robusta, Lannea coromandelica, Lagerstroemia parviflora, Ougeinia oojeinensis, Terminalia chebula, Terminalia tomentosa are the major contributor in biomass, C stock, C mitigation, and Cseq potential in different fire regimes. Thus, our findings would be highly useful in the restoration process of fire‐affected zones through the plantation of selective plant species. Therefore, the aforementioned species could be effectively utilized while going for an afforestation/reforestation program, and will be helpful in climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies under different fire zones.

Exploring climate change adaptation strategies of crop and livestock farmers in urban Ghana

This study investigates the climate change adaptation strategies employed by urban crop and livestock farmers in Ghana. With the increasing recognition of climate change threats to agricultural productivity and food security, it is crucial to understand urban farmers’ adaptation strategies. Through a mixed-methods approach—surveys of 191 urban farming households using a questionnaire and interviews of 13 key informants using an interview guide, data were collected from farmers in urban Ghana. The quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics from the Statistical Package for Social Sciences and presented in tables. The qualitative data were analysed manually based on themes and content and presented in narratives. The results indicated a significant relationship between urban farmers’ educational status and gender and their sources of climate change adaptation information. Urban farmers’ climate change adaptation strategies include planting more improved and less indigenous crop varieties and rearing of more exotic and less local breeds of animals. Again, to buffer animal production against climatic diseases, urban farmers treat their animals through vaccination, giving animals pills, disinfecting pens, and spraying animals’ bodies with chemicals. Access to agricultural extension services is the main challenge in urban farmers’ climate change adaptation. The study underscores the importance of enhancing farmers’ resilience through targeted interventions, including capacity-building initiatives, access to climate information and financial resources, and the integration of climate-smart agricultural practices into urban planning and policy frameworks. In addressing these challenges and promoting adaptive strategies, urban crop and livestock farmers in Ghana can enhance their resilience to climate change and contribute to sustainable urban agriculture and food security. This study, therefore, contributes to the urban agriculture and climate change literature by drawing attention to how crop and animal farmers in the urban neighbourhood adapt to climatic stressors.

Climate Perceptions of Small Ruminant Farmers in the Mouhoun Province of Burkina Faso

Perception is all about taking in, taking for oneself, taking hold of. Thus, a false perception of climate change can lead to a lack of adaptation or to maladaptation. Climate change represents a threat to the livestock farmers of the MP, whose main source of income is the exploitation of natural and animal resources. The problematic of this study is based on the good perception of the stockbreeders which were necessary to them to adapt to the climatic crises already occurred. The aim of this study is to analyze the perception of climate change by small ruminant breeders in the Mouhoun Province of Burkina Faso. To this end, 286 breeders, including agro-pastoralists and agro-pastoralists, i.e. 22 breeders per village, were surveyed. In addition, a focus group was held in each village, for a total of thirteen (13). Phinks software was used to process the individual survey data. The results indicate a drop in rainfall intensity (78.7%), a rise in temperatures (90.7%), a withdrawal from grazing areas (86%), a drop in milk production (81.3%) and lactation duration (86%). In summary, it appears that the population has a good perception of the climate in their locality. In addition, although it is difficult to integrate research evidence into development policy and practice, the results of this research could guide policy in making decisions about the climate perception of small ruminant farmers in the Mouhoun Province. This study leads to the conclusion that the changes perceived by farmers are relevant to the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Investigating the impact of tropical deforestation on Indian monsoon hydro-climate: a novel study using a regional climate model

AbstractThis study uses a state-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM) to examine how tropical deforestation affects the meteorology of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Incorporating insights from existing research on deforestation by climate scientists, alongside evidence of environmental deterioration in semi-arid, hilly and tropical regions of Southeast Asia, this research seeks to elucidate the critical influence of anthropogenic reasons of climate change on the hydroclimate of ISM. Employing “tropical deforestation” design experiments with the ICTP-RegCMv4.4.5.10 RCM the study evaluates the effects on meteorological parameters including precipitation, circulation patterns and surface parameters. This experimental design entails substituting vegetation type in the land use map of RegCMv4.4.5.10 model, such as deciduous and evergreen trees in Southeast Asia with “short grass” to mimic tropical deforestation. Findings reveal that deforestation induces abnormal anti-cyclonic circulation over eastern India curtails moisture advection, diminishing latent heat flux and moisture transport, leads to a decrease in precipitation compared to control experiment scenario. Alterations in albedo and vegetation roughness length attributable to deforestation impact temperature, humidity, precipitation, consequently exacerbating drought and heatwave occurrences. Additionally, the study also explores deforestation-induced feedback on ISM precipitation variability. The study concludes that deforestation substantially alters land-surface characteristics, water and energy cycle, and atmospheric circulation, thereby influencing regional climate dynamics. These findings offer foundational insights into comprehending land-use and land-cover changes and their implications for climate change adaptation strategies.

Impact of rice straw mulching on water consumption and productivity of orange trees [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck]

Due to the adverse effect of global climate change on agricultural water management, maintaining soil moisture in the root zone is essential for optimal crop productivity. For effective irrigation, we used organic mulching to increase the yield and water productivity (WP) of Valencia orange in arid/desert climates. Here, the effect of rice straw mulching and irrigation rates [100, 85, and 70% of evapotranspiration reference (ETc)] on nutrient contents, quality, and yield of orange trees was evaluated. Under field conditions, the application of straw mulch significantly increased the concentration of some essential elements and photosynthetic pigments but reduced proline contents in orange leaves. Soil mulching significantly increased fruit and inflorescence retention, and resulted in a higher number and weight of fruit on branches, without compromising their taste or texture, compared to the treatment without mulching. Both irrigation and mulching also affected crop productivity and water use efficiency (WUE). This was evident when yield/fed increased by 22.7–23.8, 20.7–31.5, and 6.2–16.9% under mulching at 100, 85, and 70% ETc, respectively, compared to traditional conditions at 100% ETc without mulch. Although the maximum WUE under rice straw mulch was 5.72–5.84 kg/m3 at 70% ETc, it was 5.31–5.40, and 4.57–4.64 kg/m3 at 85, and 100% ETc, respectively. Organic mulching showed superior results with respect to increasing yields and WP, while saving 15.4% water and comparable benefit/cost with the traditional irrigation when orange trees were irrigated with 85% ETc. Together, this study could be a promising strategy for climate change adaptation and sustainable water management.

Severe decline in large farmland trees in India over the past decade

AbstractAgroforestry practices that include the integration of multifunctional trees within agricultural lands can generate multiple socioecological benefits, in addition to being a natural climate solution due to the associated carbon sequestration potential. Such agroforestry trees represent a vital part of India’s landscapes. However, despite their importance, a current lack of robust monitoring mechanisms has contributed to an insufficient grasp of their distribution in relation to management practices, as well as their vulnerability to climate change and diseases. Here we map 0.6 billion farmland trees, excluding block plantations, in India and track them over the past decade. We show that around 11 ± 2% of the large trees (about 96 m2 crown size) mapped in 2010/2011 had disappeared by 2018. Moreover, during the period 2018–2022, more than 5 million large farmland trees (about 67 m2 crown size) have vanished, due partly to altered cultivation practices, where trees within fields are perceived as detrimental to crop yields. These observations are particularly unsettling given the current emphasis on agroforestry as a pivotal natural climate solution, playing a crucial role in both climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, in addition to being important for supporting agricultural livelihoods and improving biodiversity.

Climate change adaptation through traditional Buffalo knowledge: learning reflection from the Blackfoot indigenous community

ABSTRACT This paper highlights the potential of Indigenous Buffalo knowledge as a valuable resource for adapting to the impacts of climate change. Buffalo, particularly in regions where they have been traditionally reared, have played a crucial role in Indigenous cultures and livelihoods. Indigenous communities have developed an intimate understanding of buffalo behaviour, ecological interactions, and their relationship with changing environmental conditions. This traditional Buffalo knowledge encompasses observations, practices, and Indigenous knowledge systems passed down through generations, providing insights into adaptive strategies that can be applied in the face of climate change. Following decolonial and relational theoretical frameworks, we used deep listening to learn how traditional Buffalo knowledge contributed to climate change adaptation strategies in Indigenous communities; how does integrating traditional Buffalo knowledge into climate change adaptation policies and practices contribute to the resilience of vulnerable communities? What challenges and opportunities are associated with incorporating traditional Buffalo knowledge into mainstream climate change adaptation efforts?

Feasibility of Urban-Based Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Urban Centers of Southwest Ethiopia: From Local Climate Action Perspective

This study identified the practices of adaptation strategies to climate change in Jimma, Bedelle, Bonga, and Sokorru urban centers using a survey of 384 households, 55 key informant interviews, 4 focus group discussions, and field observations. A cross-sectional study design was employed from 2019 to 2021. The adaptive capacity of municipalities to reduce climate extreme events was rated as poor by the majority (51%), mostly reactive measures (76%). The climate hazards identified in four urban centers were riverine and flash floods, urban heat waves, landslides, and windstorms. The urban households practiced lifestyle modification, reduce paved surfaces, the use of air conditioner, planting trees, and multiple windows. The adaptation strategies practiced by municipalities include the relocation of prone areas, the support of basic amenities, the construction of protection walls, diversion ditches, the clearance of waterways and rivers, greenery, and park development. The adaptation actions were constrained by a lack of awareness, commitment, cooperation and coordination, adaptive capacity, and participation. Gray/physical infrastructures (costly but important) as adaptation actions were hampered by the low municipal capacity. We recommend that urban authorities should incorporate climate change adaptation strategies into urban planning and development proactively to ensure future resilient climate smart urban centers of southwest Ethiopia.

Assessing Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies among Sesame Farmers in Yobe State, Nigeria

The study was conducted on sesame farmers' perception of climate change on sesame production in Bade Local Government Area of Yobe State, Nigeria. A sample of 125 farmers was selected for the study. Data was collected on the socioeconomic characteristics of the farmers, their perception of climate change, sources of information, their adoption of adaptation strategies, and their constraints on sesame production. Descriptive statistics such as means, percentages and Likert scale were used to analyze the data. The results show that male farmers (80.0%) dominated sesame production. The mean age was 35.03 years, and most (64.0%) farmers were married. Most (56.8%) respondents had an unfavorable perception of climate change. The primary source of information on climate change was other farmers (86.4%). Most (52.8%) respondents had a low adoption of climate change adaptation strategies. The majority (53.6%) of the respondents faced high constraints to sesame production. It was recommended that agricultural extension services be revived to disseminate climate change information to sesame farmers so as to improve their control measures to climate change with the view to enhance sesame production.

Developing and validating an assessment tool to measure climate change knowledge among middle school students: preliminary findings in a Spanish context

Considering the crucial role of education in offering mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change, there is a clear need for objective tools to assess its impact on the understanding of the issue among secondary school students. This paper describes the methodological design used to build and validate an instrument that explores secondary education students’ climate change knowledge. The design is organized into several steps: literature and document review; item design; Expert judgment; pilot testing; and instrument quality criteria analysis. Thus, a questionnaire comprising 27 4-points Likert scale items was designed. Two rounds of pilot testing and statistical analyses were conducted on the difficulty indexes, factor analysis, Spearman coefficient (flit-half method), and alpha coefficient. The result is an instrument with a degree of feasibility, validity and reliability suitable for comparative research as was found in a Spanish macro-study involving 6398 secondary school students. Preliminary results for the Spanish context are offered.

Mitigating Emerging and Reemerging Diseases of Fruit and Vegetable Crops in a Changing Climate.

Fruit and vegetable crops are important sources of nutrition and income globally. Producing these high-value crops requires significant investment of often scarce resources, and, therefore, the risks associated with climate change and accompanying disease pressures are especially important. Climate change influences the occurrence and pressure of plant diseases, enabling new pathogens to emerge and old enemies to reemerge. Specific environmental changes attributed to climate change, particularly temperature fluctuations and intense rainfall events, greatly alter fruit and vegetable disease incidence and severity. In turn, fruit and vegetable microbiomes, and subsequently overall plant health, are also affected by climate change. Changing disease pressures cause growers and researchers to reassess disease management and climate change adaptation strategies. Approaches such as climate smart integrated pest management, smart sprayer technology, protected culture cultivation, advanced diagnostics, and new soilborne disease management strategies are providing new tools for specialty crops growers. Researchers and educators need to work closely with growers to establish fruit and vegetable production systems that are resilient and responsive to changing climates. This review explores the effects of climate change on specialty food crops, pathogens, insect vectors, and pathosystems, as well as adaptations needed to ensure optimal plant health and environmental and economic sustainability.

Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Food Security of Farm Households in Rural Dire Dawa Administration, Ethiopia

Background: The impact of climate change on smallholder farmers in underdeveloped countries—specifically, Ethiopia is widely recognized. Farm households employ a range of geographically and temporally varying adaptation strategies to cope with the adverse consequences of climate change. Therefore, it is critical to examine the few empirical studies that examine how rural Ethiopian farm households confronting drought have responded to climate change to ensure food security. Primary data were collected from 385 randomly selected farm households using a semi-structured survey form. Data analysis was performed using endogenous switching regression models and descriptive statistics. Result: Results show that the majority of the sample households (76.7%) adopted climate change adaptation strategies (livelihood diversification, soil and water conservation, and chemical fertilizers separately or in combination) while the remaining 23.3% are non-adopters. Climate change knowledge is validated as an instrumental variable. Model results revealed that adopter farmers would have significantly lower (11.6%) daily calorie intake if they had not adopted them, and non-adopter farmers would have gained significantly higher (12.8%) daily calorie intake if they had adopted them. Sex, marital status, land fragmentation, education, family size, farm size, credit access, extension contacts, and livestock ownership are significantly associated with the likelihood of adoption. Results also show systematic differences where the sex of the head variable is inversely related to the food security of adopters and vice versa for non-adopters. Conclusion: The majority of farm households in the study area know the implications of climate change (73.5%) and suffer from food insecurity (59%). Farmers' knowledge about climate change and variability varies, affecting social, economic, biophysical, and institutional issues. This was shown using descriptive statistics and OLM data. Farm households led by young, male farmers who are married, frequently interact with extension agents, have access to loans and information about climate change, and have non-fragmented plots possess greater knowledge about climate change than other households. Adaptation interventions should consider the above factors and heterogeneities to increase adoption and improve the food security of farm households in the study area.

Assessing the effects of climate and land-use change on flood recurrence in Kokcha River, Afghanistan

ABSTRACT This study critically assesses the combined effects of climate and land-use change on flood recurrence in the Kokcha River, Afghanistan, spanning the period from 2010 to 2021 and projecting forward to 2088–2099. Through the application of a bias-corrected model, we achieved high accuracy in temperature and precipitation simulations, with notable NSE values of 0.9 and 0.69, and R2 values of 0.92 and 0.78, respectively. Future streamflow simulations under different scenarios highlight climate change as the major driver influencing flood recurrence in the Kokcha River, contributing to 101.1% of the total variation, while land-use change has a minimal contribution of −1.1%. Our analysis of precipitation, average temperature, and streamflow data reveals significant patterns and changes, with future projections indicating a gradual decline in precipitation levels, mean temperature, and streamflow. Flood frequency analysis for return periods of 10, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, considering different scenarios, underscores the likelihood of floods of varying magnitudes. Notably, the highest streamflow spikes under both scenarios highlight the impact of futuristic air temperature and precipitation on flood recurrence. The study advocates prioritizing climate change adaptation and resilient land-use strategies to ensure sustainable water resource management, emphasizing the mitigation of potential flood risks.

Climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in Senegal’s semi-arid zone: role of socio-economic factors and institutional supports

In dryland agricultural systems, developing appropriate climate-smart technology (CST) options is important to adapt agriculture to climate change and transition toward sustainability, as well as increasing productivity and incomes. This study examines the impact of socio-economic and institutional support on community responses to climate change and the impact of changes in three selected regions of Senegal (Meouane, Thiel, and Daga Birame), which fall within different rainfall gradients. It captures community perceptions of climate change, compares them to long-term meteorological data, and identifies site-specific response strategies. Communities are randomly selected from a list of communities within the target sites. We used a two-stage stratified sampling method to select sample households. First, purposive sampling was conducted to select at least six (6) villages as a cluster within each rainfall gradient. Likewise, the selection of households in each cluster was based on the main value chains of crops grown in the study area, namely groundnut, millet, black pea, and livestock. A total of 145 households participated in this study. Data from surveys conducted during the 2022 post-harvest season were analyzed using descriptive statistics and logit models. The analysis found that smallholders have a comprehensive understanding of climate indicators, including annual rainfall, shortened crop seasons, and rising temperatures, compared to historical data trends. Additionally, the results highlight how farmers view the negative impacts of seasonal rainfall deficiencies (72%), delayed start of the growing season (88%), frequent dry spells (68%), and longer dry spells (76%), which ultimately lead to decreased grain and fodder yields. The logit model also highlights the importance of socio-economic and institutional factors such as access to credit, extension services, agricultural experience, frequency of interaction with extension workers, and access to government subsidies. These factors play a crucial role in farmers’ decision to adopt CST. Given the specificity of community contexts, these insights have important implications for guiding policymakers and making it easier to reduce climate risk among smallholder farmers.

Modeling the carbon dynamics of ecosystem in a typical permafrost area

Climate change poses mounting threats to fragile alpine ecosystem worldwide. Quantifying changes in carbon stocks in response to the shifting climate was important for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study utilized a process-based land model (Community Land Model 5.0) to analyze spatiotemporal variations in vegetation carbon stock (VCS) and soil organic carbon stock (SOCS) across a typical permafrost area - Qinghai Province, China, from 2000 to 2018. Multiple potential factors influencing carbon stocks dynamics were analyzed, including climate, vegetation, soil hydrothermal status, and soil properties. The results indicated that provincial vegetation carbon storage was 0.22 PgC (0.32 kg/m2) and soil organic carbon pool was 9.12 PgC (13.03 kg/m2). VCS showed a mild increase while SOCS exhibited fluctuating uptrends during this period. Higher carbon stocks were observed in forest (21.74 kg/m2) and alpine meadow (18.08 kg/m2) compared to alpine steppes (9.63 kg/m2). Over 90 % of the carbon was stored in the 0-30 cm topsoil layer. The contribution rates of soil carbon in the 30-60 cm and 60-100 cm soil layers were significantly small, despite increasing stocks across all depths. Solar radiation, temperature, and NDVI emerged as primary influential factors for overall carbon stocks, exhibiting noticeable spatial variability. For SOCS at different depths, the normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) was the foremost predictor of landscape-level carbon distributions, which explained 52.8 % of SOCS variability in shallow layers (0-30 cm) but dropped to just 12.97 % at the depth of 30-60 cm. However, the dominance of NDVI diminished along the soil depth gradients, superseded by radiation and precipitation. Additionally, with an increase in soil depth, the influence of inherent soil properties also increased. This simulation provided crucial insights for landscape-scale carbon responses to climate change, and offered valuable reference for other climate change-sensitive areas in terms of ecosystem carbon management.

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. The spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

Predicting the site productivity of forest tree species using climate niche models

Species occurrence-based climate niche models (CNMs) serve as valuable tools for predicting the future ranges of species’ suitable habitats, aiding the development of climate change adaptation strategies. However, these models do not address an essential aspect - productivity, which holds economic significance for timber production and ecological importance for carbon sequestration and ecosystem services. In this study, we investigated the potential to extend the CNMs to predict species productivity under various climate conditions. Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco.) were selected as our model species due to their comprehensive range-wide occurrence data and measurement of site productivity. To achieve this, we compared and optimized the performance of four individual modeling algorithms (Random Forest (RF), Maxent, Generalized Boosted Models (GBM), and Generalized Additive Model (GAM)) in reflecting site productivity by evaluating the effect of spatial filtering, and the ratio of presence to absence (p/a ratio) observations. Additionally, we applied a binning process to capture the overarching trend of climatic effects while minimizing the impact of other factors. We observed consistency in optimal performance across both species when using the unfiltered data and a 1:1.5 p/a ratio, which could potentially be extended to other species. Among the modeling algorithms explored, we selected the ensemble model combining RF and Maxent as the final model to predict the range-wide site productivity for both species. The predicted range-wide site productivity was validated with an independent dataset for each species and yielded promising results (R2 above 0.7), affirming our model’s credibility. Our model introduced an innovative approach for predicting species productivity with high accuracy using only species occurrence data, and significantly advanced the application of CNMs. It provided crucial tools and insights for evaluating climate change's impact on productivity and holds a better potential for informed forest management and conservation decisions.

Shrimp Farmer’s Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies to the Threat of Climate Change in Bangil District, East Java

As one of the main stakeholders in the fishing industry, shrimp farmers are directly affected by climate change that causes changes in seawater temperature, rainfall, and unpredictable weather patterns. Related to the issue, the threat to income may be felt by shrimp farmers. Therefore, in this study, we highlight two objectives as a basis for drawing up this article, namely (1) to understand shrimp farmers’ perceptions of climate change, and (2) to identify factors that influence farmers’ decisions in implementing adaptation strategies. There are two types of analysis that we use, namely descriptive analysis and logit regression analysis. Our findings show that the majority of shrimp farmers consider climate change manifested in the form of changes in rainfall patterns (96.21%), increases in pond water temperatures (98.71%), decreases in yield production (95.41%), and increases in shrimp pests and diseases (96.23%). The results of our logit regression analysis show that the decision-making factors of shrimp farmers are significantly influenced. These results indicate that the implementation of adaptation strategies in the fisheries sector can generate significant growth and reduce the risks posed by climate change. As a result, the government needs to encourage the development of more suitable climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale shrimp farmers in Indonesia.

Enhancing vulnerability assessment through spatially explicit modeling of mountain social-ecological systems exposed to multiple environmental hazards

The evaluation of the vulnerability of coupled socio-ecological systems is critical for addressing and preventing the adverse impacts of various environmental hazards and devising strategies for climate change adaptation. The initial step in vulnerability assessment involves exposure assessment, which entails quantifying and mapping the risks posed by multiple environmental hazards, thereby offering valuable insights for the implementation of vulnerability assessment methodologies. Consequently, this study sought to model the exposure of coupled social-ecological systems in mountainous regions to various environmental hazards. By a set of socio-economic, climatic, geospatial, hydrological, and demographic data, as well as satellite imagery, and examining 11 hazards, including droughts, pests, dust storms, winds, extreme temperatures, evapotranspiration, landslides, floods, wildfires, and social vulnerability, this research employed machine learning (ML) techniques and the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). Expert opinions were utilized to guide hazard weighting and calculate the exposure index (EI). Through the precise spatial mapping of EI variations across the socio-ecological systems in mountainous areas, this investigation provides insights into vulnerability to multiple environmental hazards, thereby laying the groundwork for future endeavors in supporting national-level vulnerability assessments aimed at fostering sustainable environments. The findings reveal that social vulnerability and pests receive the highest weighting, while floods and landslides are ranked lower. All hazards demonstrate significant correlations with the EI, with droughts exhibiting the strongest correlation (r > 0.81). Spatial analysis indicates a north-south gradient in forest exposure, with southern regions showing higher exposure hotspots (EI 29.08) compared to northern areas (EI 10.60). Validation based on Area Under Curve (AUC) and Consistency Rate (CR) in FAHP demonstrates robustness, with AUC values exceeding 0.78 and CR values below 0.1. Considering the anticipated intensification of hazards, management strategies should prioritize reducing social vulnerability, restore degraded areas using drought-resistant species, combat pests, and mitigate desertification. By integrating multidisciplinary data and expert opinions, this research contributes to informed decision-making regarding sustainable forest management and climate resilience in mountain ecosystems.