Climate Analogues Research Articles

Identifying historical climate changes in Australia through spatial analogs

Spatial analogs have previously been used to communicate climate projections by comparing the future climate of a location with an analogous recent climate at a different location which is typically hotter. In this study, spatial climate analogs were computed using observational data to identify and quantify past changes. A sigma dissimilarity metric was computed to compare the recent climates of nine major Australian cities and early 20th century climate across Australia. Evidence is found for climate shifts, particularly in Darwin where temperature variability is lower than in extratropical cities. Analogs designed to capture extremes, including a human health-relevant climate analog, were constructed and these also highlight significant climate shifts. The analogs may also be used to examine extreme events in the context of a reference city climate and identify unusual events. This work demonstrates the utility of climate analogs for monitoring past climate changes and extreme events as well as examining and communicating future change. Care should be taken in interpretation of the movement of analogous climates and the design of analyses, but climate analogs have many potential applications beyond previous uses. Tailored analogs could be studied to communicate climate changes relevant to specific stakeholders.

The potential impact of future climate change on the production of a major food and cash crop in tropical (sub)montane homegardens

Tropical agroforestry systems support the wellbeing of many smallholder farmers. These systems provide smallholders with crops for consumption and income through their ecological interactions between their tree, soil, and crop components. These interactions, however, could be vulnerable to changes in climate conditions; yet a reliable understanding of how this could happen is not well documented. The aim of this study is to understand how tree-soil-crop interactions and crop yield are affected by changes in climate conditions, which has implications for recognising how these systems could be affected by climate change. We used a space-for-time climate analogue approach, in conjunction with structural equation modelling, to empirically examine how warmer and drier climate conditions affects tree-soil-crop interactions and banana yield in Mt. Kilimanjaro's homegarden agroforest. Overall, the change in climate conditions negatively affected ecological interactions in the homegardens by destabilizing soil nutrient cycles. Banana yield, however, was mainly directly influenced by the climate. Banana yields could initially benefit from the warmer climate before later declining under water stress. Our findings imply that under increasingly warmer and drier climate conditions, homegarden agroforestry may not be a robust long-term farming practice which can protect smallholder's wellbeing unless effective irrigation measures are implemented.

Using climate analogues and vulnerability metrics to inform urban tree species selection in a changing climate: The case for Canadian cities

Urban forests provide ecosystem services to more than 4.2 billion people living in cities; however, the provision of these services is threatened by climate change. Cities will experience novel, warmer climates that will impact tree species survival. Here, we present an empirical approach combining the use of climate analogues and vulnerability metrics to guide urban tree species selection. Climate analogues can be used to identify where the current climate in a given location is similar to the projected future climate of another location. Using vulnerability metrics, tree species in both locations can then be compared and species at risk of future climate change can be identified and substituted with species known to be resilient to climatic changes in the other location. Using Canadian cities as a case study, we show how our approach can become a useful tool to inform species selection and facilitate urban forest decision-making in response to climate change.

A continental-scale chironomid training set for reconstructing Arctic temperatures

We present chironomid species assemblage data from 402 lakes across northern North America, Greenland, Iceland, and Svalbard to inform interpretations of Holocene subfossil chironomid assemblages used in paleolimnological reconstruction. This calibration-set was developed by re-identifying and taxonomically harmonizing chironomids in previously described surface sediment samples, with identifications made at finer taxonomic resolution than in original publications. The large geographic coverage of this dataset is intended to provide climatic analogues for a wide range of Holocene climates in the northwest North Atlantic region and North American Arctic, including Greenland. For many of these regions, modern calibration data are sparse despite keen interest in paleoclimate reconstructions from high latitudes. A suite of chironomid-based temperature models based upon this training set are evaluated here and the best statistical model is used to reconstruct late glacial (Allerød and Younger Dryas) and Holocene paleotemperatures at five non-glacial lakes representing a wide range of climate zones across Greenland. The new continent-scale training set offers more analogues for the majority of Greenland subfossil assemblages than existing smaller training sets, with many in Iceland and northern Canada. We find strong agreement between chironomid-based reconstructions derived from the new model and independent glacier-based evidence for multi-millennial Holocene temperature trends. Some of the new Holocene reconstructions are very similar to published data, but at a subset of sites and time periods we find improved paleotemperature reconstructions attributable both to the new model's finer taxonomic resolution and to its expanded geographic/climatic coverage, which resulted in improved characterization of species optima. In the late glacial, the new model's finer taxonomic resolution yields a unique ability to resolve temperatures of the Allerød from colder temperatures of the Younger Dryas, although the magnitude of that temperature difference may be underestimated. This study demonstrates the value of geographically and climatically broad paleoecological training sets. The large, taxonomically harmonized dataset presented here should be useful for a wide range of future investigations, including but not limited to paleotemperature reconstructions across the Arctic.

Enhanced drying of the Tengger desert, northwest margin of East Asian summer monsoon during warming interglacials after 500 ka

The arid-semiarid regions face drying threats under global warming, but their future changes in terms of drying or not are controversial. High orbital-scale resolution records spanning across the Mid-Brunhes event in the arid deserts provide a climate analogue since the formation of deserts. However, there was no definite work in the deserts so far. Here, we present the results of a chronological and paleoenvironmental study of a 122.63 m-long core drilled in the largest lake basin in the central Tengger Desert (northern China), located in the northwestern margin of East Asian Summer Monsoon regions. Following comprehensive paleomagnetism analysis, the Matuyama/Brunhes boundary was detected at a core depth of 87.5 m, and the basal age of the core is estimated at ∼940 ka based on orbital tuning. The lithology, grain size, carbonate and total organic carbon content were analyzed to examine the sedimentary facies and reconstruct the paleoenvironmental evolution. Ten relatively humid layers were identified by sedimentary facies, further results confirmed by fine grain size, high carbonate, and total organic carbon content, which generally developed during interglacial and were controlled by the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the past 940 ka. Since ∼500 ka, the interglacial climate regime displayed an intensified aridification manifested as shrinking lakes and persistent mobile dunes in the Tengger Desert. We argue that this aridification was caused by the combination of a massive supply of clastic material for the desert and the occurrence of higher potential evapotranspiration during warmer interglacials after the Mid-Brunhes Event. This research finding provides geological evidence for the aridification of the deserts in the East Asian Summer Monsoon margin under global warming.

Impacts of climate change on tropical agroforestry systems: A systematic review for identifying future research priorities

Climate change is expected to adversely affect the crop yields and food security for many smallholder farmers in the tropics unless adaptive measures are implemented. Agroforestry ecosystem services, such as micro-climate buffering, have received growing attention from the academic and policy communities for alleviating the negative impacts of climate change on smallholders. These benefits imply that agroforestry could offer a suitable measure for adaptation to climate change. However, whether agroforestry systems themselves succumb to the adverse effects of climate change is often less studied in the agroforestry literature. Consequently, less is known about how climate change will impact agroforests. We conducted a systematic review, which included an evidence quality assessment, to examine the impacts of climate change on tropical agroforestry systems (TAFS). Based primarily on studies undertaking biophysical approaches, we found that climate change negatively impacts TAFS by reducing tree growth, intensifying tree-crop resource competition and reducing crop yields. However, the impacts on smallholder farmers are less clear due to limited evidence in the relevant literature. We found that the evidence supporting our findings is mostly “robust”, although “least robust” strength evidence was also commonly found. We conclude that to improve understanding of how climate change could affect the performance of TAFS as a social ecological system, more interdisciplinary studies are required. Furthermore, to improve the quality of evidence in the research field, studies should explore using mountain elevation gradients for climate analog analysis to perform the most robust study designs. We provide an interdisciplinary conceptual model, which considers the interactions and feedbacks between TAFS components noted from our review to predict the response of ecosystem services provisioning and farmers' wellbeing to climate change, to guide interdisciplinary studies using climate analog analysis.

Efficacy of the global protected area network is threatened by disappearing climates and potential transboundary range shifts

Protected areas are essential to conserving biodiversity, yet changing climatic conditions challenge their efficacy. For example, novel and disappearing climates within the protected area network indicate that extant species may not have suitable climate in protected areas in the future. Further, potential transboundary range shifts, those that involve movement from one country to another, are also challenging because physical (e.g. fencing) and non-physical barriers (e.g. contrasting conservation policies) may impede climate-induced movements. Through the lens of climate analogs, we examined disappearing and novel climates within the global terrestrial protected area network and the potential for transboundary range shifts among protected areas under global warming 2 °C above preindustrial levels. We found that globally, climates in 24% of protected lands will no longer be protected within a 500 km radius of their focal location (indicating disappearing climates within the protected area network), while 36% of protected lands will gain climates not previously protected (indicating novel climates within the protected area network). Further, we found that potential transboundary range shifts are widespread but variable; for example, 23% of protected climates in Europe and >50% of protected climates in Africa under climate change are located in a different country than the focal protected areas. As the global conservation community actively deliberates conservation frameworks (e.g. 30% by 2030), our study offers insights to reduce the prevalence of novel and disappearing climates within the global protected area network via strategic conservation actions and underscores the importance of setting and accommodating targets and strategies that transcend national boundaries.

Food Systems Development: The Necessary Paradigm Shift for a Healthy and Sustainable Agrarian Transition, a Case Study from Bougainville, Papua New Guinea.

Classical agricultural development paradigms prioritise basic requirements such as agronomic, caloric and economic needs for the target environment and for beneficiaries. As challenges associated with climate change, globalisation, and population growth compound and amplify one another, project scope must be broadened to take a holistic food systems approach that includes sociocultural and historical contexts, as well as climate impacts as underpinning project design. In this paper, we illustrate the importance of adopting a food systems development paradigm rather than a classical agricultural development paradigm through a case study in Bougainville, Papua New Guinea. The case uses Rich Picturing, targeted and focus-group interviews, and garden visits in remote Bougainville; it provides a poignant illustration of the importance of this more holistic perspective given the historical inefficacy of food systems development, as well as Papua New Guinea’s exposure to a plethora of compounding environmental, social, economic, and political stresses and shocks that demonstrate the important linkages between ecosystem services and health. The study aims to demonstrate how including localised gender dynamics, climate vulnerability, rapidly morphing social norms, and climate analogue environments is critical in building food systems resilience and is key to designing policies, programs, and development projects that more effectively address environmental, sociocultural, and health considerations. Building on the inadequacies in agricultural development efforts previously documented for Papua New Guinea, we propose an improved framing for food systems development and identify areas for future research.

Key traits of living fossil Ginkgo biloba are highly variable but not influenced by climate – Implications for palaeo-pCO2 reconstructions and climate sensitivity

The Ginkgoales, including the ‘living fossil’ Ginkgo biloba, are an important group for stomata-based palaeo-pCO2 reconstructions, with long evolutionary lineages and an extensive, abundant fossil record. The stomatal proxy for palaeo-pCO2 can improve our understanding of the exact relationship between pCO2 and temperatures – Earth's climate sensitivity: a key measure of global warming by pCO2. However, pCO2 records from future climate analogues in the past, such as the mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum, seemingly underestimate pCO2 – climate models cannot simulate the past temperatures with the only moderately elevated pCO2 reconstructed by proxies. Either climate sensitivity must have been elevated, which has implications for future climate forecasts, or proxies underestimate pCO2 due to additional environmental factors. Here we tested whether climate conditions impact stomatal parameters and thus pCO2 reconstruction on a large global database of G. biloba leaves from all continents except Antarctica, spanning 12 climate zones. We reconstructed ambient pCO2 using three stomatal proxy methods (stomatal ratio, transfer functions, Franks gas exchange model) and one stomata-independent isotope-based proxy for comparison (C3 proxy). We found that the stomatal proxy methods reconstructed ambient pCO2 reasonably well and uniformly, but that the C3 proxy underestimated pCO2. All the investigated stomatal parameters displayed an unexpectedly large variability, but no significant relationship with temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Based on these results, the stomatal proxy is not influenced by climate and specifically does not systematically underestimate pCO2 under high temperatures. Climate sensitivity was likely instead elevated during past global warming episodes, an urgent consideration in climate forecasts for our rapidly warming Earth.

Where will species on the move go? Insights from climate connectivity modelling across European terrestrial habitats

Climate change can induce species range shifts. However, the intensity of climate change, the intrinsic dispersal ability of species and the anthropization of landscapes are impeding species movements in most cases. In this context, preserving and promoting climate corridors for species to migrate from their current habitats to their future climatically similar habitats is an important strategy for preventing species extinction. Climate connectivity modelling is a tool that can identify these potential movement pathways. Here, we aimed to model connectivity between climate analogues across Europe under various ecological assumptions and climate change scenarios, in order to identify areas of high potential connectivity and to quantify variation in connectivity across a range of hypotheses. We also overlapped connectivity maps with protected areas to determine whether climate connectivity was sufficiently protected. We showed that climatic connectivity did not differ much between different scenarios of climate change, but was strongly dependent on species’ dispersal assumptions. It was also relatively similar to a scenario of non-climatic connectivity. Therefore, it may be feasible to anticipate the effect of climate change on species movements regardless of the future trajectory of climate, but the implementation of protection strategies for multiple species will certainly prove complex. Overall, protected areas were located in the regions of high and stable connectivity, but some countries lack the appropriate protection schemes, especially regarding strong protections. Our results have the potential to serve in the construction of land cover change scenarios to identify the best strategies to improve climate connectivity.

Seedling Response to Simulated Browsing and Reduced Water Availability: Insights for Assisted Migration Plantations

To facilitate forest transition to future climate conditions, managers can use adaptive silvicultural tools, for example the assisted translocation of tree species and genotypes to areas with suitable future climate conditions (i.e., assisted migration). Like traditional plantations, however, assisted migration plantations are at risk of failure because of browsing by ungulate herbivores. The ability of seedlings to tolerate browsing could also be hampered by low water availability, as is expected under climate change. Using a greenhouse experiment with five eastern North American tree species, we evaluated the effects of simulated winter browsing and reduced water availability on the growth (total biomass, shoot:root ratio), survival, and chemical composition (nitrogen, total phenolics, flavonoids) of seedlings. We compared seedlings from three geographic provenances representing three climate analogues, i.e., locations with a current climate similar to the climate predicted at the plantation site at a specific time (here: current, mid-century and end of the century). We hypothesized that seedlings would allocate resources to the system (shoots or roots) affected by the most limiting treatment (simulated browsing or reduced water availability). Additionally, we evaluated whether the combination of treatments would have an additive or non-additive effect on the growth, survival and chemical composition of the seedlings. Quercus rubra seedlings reacted only to the water reduction treatment (changes in biomass and N concentration, dependent on geographic provenance) while Pinus strobus reacted only to the simulated browsing treatment (biomass and chemical composition). We also observed non-additive effects of reduced water availability and simulated browsing on Prunus serotina, Acer saccharum and Thuja occidentalis. In general, shoot:root ratio and investment in chemical defense did not vary in response to treatments. The regrowth response observed in Q. rubra and A. saccharum suggests that these species could tolerate periodic browsing events, even when water availability is reduced. More information is required to understand their long-term tolerance to repeated browsing events and to harsher and more frequent water stress. We highlight the importance of species-specific growth and allocation responses that vary with geographic provenance, which should be considered by managers when planning climate-adapted strategies, such as assisted migration.

What’s next for the New Zealand dairy feed-base? Learnings from climate analogues

• The reviewed literature suggests that the likely main impact of climate change on New Zealand dairy systems will be a reduction in total annual rainfall and increased inter- and intra-season rainfall and associated soil moisture variability.• Future climate analogues for New Zealand’s current dairying regions are provided from both within New Zealand and Australia.• Future climate scenarios for New Zealand dairy systems can be found within New Zealand with the exception of Northland whose most similar climate analogue is in Australia.• A conceptual framework to increase the boundaries of the ‘zone of system control’ (ZSC) by the farmer is provided here for the first time. The ZSC is defined as the optimal range for a critical input (rainfall or soil moisture in this case) where productive and profitable farming can occur.• Risk of failure increases as the frequency inputs fall above (excess) or below (deficit) the ZSC. Options to reduce the risk of system failure (outside of this zone) are provided with emphasis on soil moisture.• This framework could be used to focus future research and development investment to make the New Zealand and Australian dairy industries more resilient to climate change.

Navigating Miocene Ocean Temperatures for Insights into the Future

A new temperature data portal will aid scientists in tracking and accessing paleoclimate data from the Miocene, a past warm climate interval and future climate analogue.

A greener future for the Galapagos: forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time

AbstractForecasting ecosystem response to climate change is critical for guiding policymaking but challenging due to: complicated relationships between microclimates and regional climates; species’ responses that are driven by extremes rather than averages; the multifaceted nature of species’ interactions; and the lack of historical analogs to future climates. Given these challenges, even model systems such as the Galapagos Islands, a world‐famous biodiversity hotspot and World Heritage Site, lack clear forecasts for future environmental change. Here, we developed a novel nonparametric method for simulating the ecosystem futures based on observed vegetation productivity (NDVI) during analogous weather observed historically. Using satellite images taken from the past to piece together a simulated future, we projected that productivity of terrestrial vegetation of the Galapagos will increase over the next century by approximately one standard deviation archipelago‐wide, with largest increases during the wet season (January to June) and in the arid zones. Such greening would impact a variety of ecological and evolutionary processes, species of conservation concern, and agricultural practices. Our straightforward approach can be applied to many other regions, particularly those with rapid ecosystem responses to stochastic inter‐annual climatic fluctuations that provide appropriate climate analogs for forecasting.

ENSO, sun and megadroughts in SW USA during the last 11,000 years

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important modes of variability in the climate system. However, ENSO instrumental records are too short to characterize its natural variability at long-term timescales. Paleoclimate records showing ENSO variability during the Holocene on centennial and millennial timescales are rare but critical for our understanding of long-term multidecadal- to millennial-scale variability. Here we used several climate sensitive piñon pine (Pinus edulis) pollen records from the Southern Rockies, USA, to produce a detailed continuous record of effective precipitation and ENSO-like variability for the last 11,000 yrs. La Niña conditions dominated the Early Holocene while El Niño conditions enhanced in an increasing trend over the last 6,000 yrs. This trend was modulated by millennial-scale and ENSO-like hydrological activity at prominent 900-1,000-yr cycles and the amplitude of these cycles increased until present. Enhanced La Niña and related multidecadal megadroughts occurred in the Southern Rockies centered at ca. 10, 8, 6.8, 5.8, 4.8, 4, 3, 2.2, 1 ka. Insolation and solar output changes are suggested here as the main triggers for ENSO climate and vegetation changes. Our analysis of recent strong La Niña events, representing modern climate analogs of past conditions, indicates anomalously dry conditions persisting annually, leading to prolonged drought that impact piñon pine growth. Following the thermostat hypothesis and the Sun-ENSO link, such dry conditions are expected to prevail in the future, which combined with increasing temperatures, will most likely generate megadroughts in the SW USA.

Protected-area targets could be undermined by climate change-driven shifts in ecoregions and biomes

Expanding the global protected area network is critical for addressing biodiversity declines and the climate crisis. However, how climate change will affect ecosystem representation within the protected area network remains unclear. Here we use spatial climate analogs to examine potential climate-driven shifts in terrestrial ecoregions and biomes under a +2 °C warming scenario and associated implications for achieving 30% area-based protection targets. We find that roughly half of land area will experience climate conditions that correspond with different ecoregions and nearly a quarter will experience climates from a different biome. Of the area projected to remain climatically stable, 46% is currently intact (low human modification). The area required to achieve protection targets in 87% of ecoregions exceeds the area that is intact, not protected, and projected to remain climatically stable within those ecoregions. Therefore, we propose that prioritization schemes will need to explicitly consider climate-driven changes in patterns of biodiversity.

Establishing a climate‐ready revegetation trial in central Victoria – A case study

SummaryA promising approach in dealing with the detrimental effects of climate change on vegetation is to introduce pre‐adapted genotypes into restoration programmes. Bush Heritage’s Victorian reserves have experienced eucalypt dieback probably due to intense drought and heat shock linked to climate change. Planned revegetation on the Nardoo Hills reserve provided an opportunity to establish and test the potential for new climate‐matched genotypes to expand the adaptive capacity of the plantings. As NRM practitioners, here we document our experiences in implementing this approach. Using the Climate Analogues tool and the Australasian Virtual Herbarium, we selected provenances from four climate analogue regions where remnants of our focal species, Grey Box (Eucalyptus microcarpa) and Yellow Box (E. melliodora), were located. Replicated plots were established covering five provenances for Grey Box and 5 provenances for Yellow Box with up to 10 ‘families’ (mother trees) per provenance. Numerous challenges were encountered including locating suitable provenances, the design and scientific compromises associated with the experimental layout, sourcing of adequate seed from remote regions (especially drought affected) and high mortality during seedling establishment. Monitoring nine months after planting revealed not only high overall mortality (around 70%, probably due to drought conditions during establishment) but also significant differences in height between provenances and in mortality and height among families in both species. Despite the initial mortality, the nested design and level of replication applied in these plots appear adequate to test hypotheses about the value of climate matching and will continue to be monitored in the future.

Tree assisted migration in a browsed landscape: Can we predict susceptibility to herbivores?

To promote the sustainability of forest ecosystems and maintain ecosystem services to human populations in the context of climate change, forest managers are considering several adaptation tools. One of those, assisted migration, consists of displacing tree species and/or populations to locations with suitable future climate conditions. Assisted migration plantations, however, could fail to produce viable forests under high herbivory pressure from mammalian herbivores. Thus, selecting species and genotypes with low susceptibility to herbivores could be a key condition for the recruitment of translocated seedlings. We developed an approach to predict susceptibility to mammalian herbivores, based on the seedlings’ chemical content (a proxy of phytochemical defence and susceptibility to herbivores). We used the approach on eight North American tree species of three climate analogues regions each (i.e. locations where the current climate is similar to the future climate at plantation site). We built chemical profiles and ranked species and climate analogue based on their potential susceptibility. To assess the reliability of our approach, we compared the chemical profiles to a systematic review of these species’ chemistry and of mammalian browsing throughout their native geographic range. For most species, our chemical profiles and browse susceptibility rankings were congruent with information available in the literature, both for phytochemical defence and for browsing. Two of the eight species (Pinus strobus and Thuja occidentalis) were more susceptible than predicted based on their chemical profile. These discrepancies could be linked to specific mammalian herbivores, that were unaffected by the phytochemical defence of these species. We observed a generally higher susceptibility of broadleaf species, which could be taken into account when devising adaptive silvicultural strategies. Furthermore, we propose the chemical profiling approach as a preliminary screening tool to identify species more resistant to mammalian herbivores, but also potentially to other herbivores and pathogens. Our chemical profile approach, based on the objective assessment of multivariate analyses results, could be replicated to compare the potential susceptibility of other species. This approach could be especially useful when contending with novel plant-herbivore relationships, such as forestry and conservation assisted migration or species invasion.

Climate‐Driven Limits to Future Carbon Storage in California's Wildland Ecosystems

AbstractEnhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forest and climate analog approaches, to explore the climate‐driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation are estimated to drive decreases of 16.1% ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid‐elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines are less severe, with 8.8% ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, increases in temperature systematically cause biomass declines, and the spread of projected precipitation across 32 CMIP5 models contributes to substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of that decline. Projected changes in the environmental niche for the 20 most biomass‐dominant tree species revealed widespread replacement of conifers by oak species in low elevation regions of central and northern California, with a corresponding decline in carbon storage depending on expected migration rates. The spatial patterns of vulnerability we identify may allow policymakers to assess where carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass is an appropriate part of a climate mitigation portfolio, and where future climate‐driven carbon losses may be a liability.

Climate Analogue Mapping for Coffee Production in Ethiopia

Coffee farming provides livelihoods for around 15 million farmers in Ethiopia and generates a quarter of the country’s export earnings. Feedback from coffee farming communities, and observations on coffee production and coffee plant stress, indicate that climate change has already had a negative impact. Against a backdrop of rapidly increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall, there is an urgent need to understand the influence of climate change on coffee production. Data Acquisition method obtained monthly surface minimum and maximum air temperature and the sum of rainfall output from in the CMIP archive, four scenarios (SSP1- 2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) were used from 2001 to 2020 and for future outlook from 2021 to 2040 to assess the exposure of coffee farming to future climatic change. Results suggest that Ethiopia will likely experience increasing temperatures, but changes in rainfall are uncertain. The increasing temperatures will probably be accompanied by mild thermal stress for coffee during the dry seasons or drought. It could be concluded that coffee in the coming decades will probably experience mild thermal stress during the dry seasons, expressed by slight increases in physiological responses, but will probably remain within the normal margins. Timely, precise, science-based decision making is required now and over the coming decades, to ensure sustainability and resilience for the Ethiopian coffee sector. Keywords: Temperature; Rain fall; Coffee DOI: 10.7176/JAAS/74-03 Publication date: July 31 st 2021