Climate Adaptive Capacity Research Articles

주성분 분석을 이용한 농업생산기반의 재해 취약성 평가에 관한 연구

The purpose of this study was to evaluate climate change vulnerability over the agricultural infrastructure in terms of flood and drought using principal component analysis. Vulnerability was assessed using vulnerability resilience index (VRI) which combines climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Ten flood proxy variables and six drought proxy variables for the vulnerability assessment were selected by opinions of researchers and experts. The statistical data on 16 proxy variables for the local governments (Si, Do) were collected. To identify major variables and to explain the trend in whole data set, principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted. The result of PCA showed that the first 3 principal components explained approximately 83 % and 89 % of the total variance for the flood and drought, respectively. VRI assessment for the local governments based on the PCA results indicated that provinces where having the relatively large cultivation areas were categorized as vulnerable to climate change.

Identifying and addressing sustainable pasture and grazing management options for a major economic sector – the north Australian beef industry

Sustainable use of Australia’s northern grazing lands is a long-standing issue for management and policy, heightened by projections of increased climatic variability, uncertainty of forage supplies, vegetation complexes and weeds and diseases. Meat & Livestock Australia has supported a large study to explore sustainable grazing management strategies and increase the capacity of the sector to address climate change. Potential options were explored by bio-economic modeling of ‘representative’ beef enterprises defined by pastoralists and supported by regional research and extension specialists. Typical options include diversification, infrastructure, flexible stocking rates, wet season resting and prescribed fire. Concurrent activities by another team included regional impact assessments and surveys of pastoralists’ understanding of and attitudes towards climate change and adaptive capacity. The results have been widely canvassed and a program of on-ground demonstrations of various options implemented. The paper describes the structure of this program and highlights key results indicating considerable scope to address sustainability challenges.

Climate change and adaptive capacity in fisheries management: the case of Norway

Climate variability and change drive changes in marine ecosystems, such as growth in and geographic distribution of living marine resources. Mitigating measures in response to anthropogenic climate change are insufficient, and more attention must be directed toward adaptation to climate change. In the management of living marine resources, successful management will rest on the capacity of management regimes to be adaptive and flexible. This article addresses the management of living marine resources, and how management regimes cope with change and bolster the resilience of ecosystems. Experiences from the Norwegian management regime for living marine resources are used to illustrate how an existing regime can respond to change. We conclude that management regimes with sufficient capacity, in terms of robust science, regulatory frameworks that contribute to reduced fishing effort and maintenance of sustainable stock levels, and enforcement capability, are more likely to respond adequately to the challenges posed by climate change than those that do not.

Research on the Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Nunavut, Nunavik, and Nunatsiavut: A Literature Review and Gap Analysis

Research on the human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) in the Canadian Arctic has expanded so rapidly over the past decade that we do not have a clear grasp of the current state of knowledge or research gaps. This lack of clarity has implications for duplication of climate policy and research, and it has been identified as a problem by communities, scientists, policy makers, and northern organizations. Our review of current knowledge about the HDCC in Nunavut, Nunavik, and Nunatsiavut indicates that the effects of climate change on subsistence harvesting and other land-based activities and the determinants of vulnerability and adaptation to such changes are well understood. However, the effects of climate change on health are less known. In the nascent research on this topic, studies on food security and personal safety dominate, and little peer-reviewed scholarship focuses on the business and economic sector. Published research shows a strong bias toward case studies in smaller communities, especially communities in Nunavut. Such studies have focused primarily on negative impacts of climate change, present-day vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacity, but studies proposing opportunities for adaptation intervention are beginning to emerge. While documenting the serious risks posed by climate change, they also highlight the adaptability of northern populations and the effects of economic-political stresses on vulnerability to changing climate. We note the absence of studies that examine how Northerners can benefit from new opportunities that may arise from climate change, or assess how the interaction of future climatic and socio-economic changes (specifically, resource development and enhanced shipping) will affect their experience of and response to climate change, or discuss the broader determinants of vulnerability and adaptation.

기후변화 대비 강원 지역 산림부문 현황 분석 및 취약성 평가

In an effort to analyze the impact of climate change, Gangwon provincial forest was divided into three sectors; forest ecology, forest disaster, and forest productivity and analysis of their current status from 2000 to 2009 and vulnerability assessment by climate change has been carried in this study. In case of vulnerability assessment, except for the forest ecology, forest disaster (forest fires and forest pests) and forest productivity sectors were analyzed in current status, the year of 2020, and 2050. It turned out that vulnerability of forest fires in the field of disaster would become worse and forest pests also would make more impact even though there is some variation in different areas. In case of the vulnerability of forest productivity there would be not a big difference in the future compared with current vulnerability. Systematic research on the sensitivity index used for vulnerability assessment is necessary since vulnerability assessment result greatly depends on the use of climate exposure index and adaptive capacity index.

기후변화에 따른 보건 분야의 취약성 평가: O3을 중심으로

Adaptation of climate change is necessary to avoid unexpected impacts of climate change caused by human activities. Vulnerability refers to the degree to which system cannot cope with impacts of climate change, encompassing physical, social and economic aspects. Therefore the quantification of climate change impacts and its vulnerability is needed to identify vulnerable regions and to setup the proper strategies for adaptation. In this study, climate change vulnerability is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Also, we identified regions vulnerable to ozone due to climate change in Korea using developed proxy variables of vulnerability of regional level. 18 proxy variables are selected through delphi survey to assess vulnerability over human health sector for ozone concentration change due to climate change. Also, we estimate the weighting score of proxy variables from delphi survey. The results showed that the local regions with higher vulnerability index in the sector of human health are Seoul and Daegu, whereas regions with lower one are Jeollanam-do, Gyeonggi-do, Gwangju, Busan, Daejeon, and Gangwon-do. The regions of high level vulnerability are mainly caused by their high ozone exposure. We also assessed future vulnerability according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1FI, A1T, A1B, B2, and B1 scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2100s. The results showed that vulnerability increased in all scenarios due to increased ozone concentrations. Especially vulnerability index is increased by approximately 2 times in A1FI scenarios in the 2020s. This study could support regionally adjusted adaptation polices and the quantitative background of policy priority as providing the information on the regional vulnerability of ozone due to climate change in Korea.

Development and application of a methodology for vulnerability assessment of climate change in coastal cities

This research is based on the need to develop methodology for climate change vulnerability assessment in coastal cities. While there have been some studies on the development of methodologies for vulnerability assessment on a national scale, there have been few attempts to develop a method for local vulnerability assessment with application to coastal cities. The objective of this study was to develop a general methodology to assess vulnerability to climate change and to apply it to the metropolitan coastal city of Busan in South Korea. We followed the conceptual framework for assessing climate change vulnerability provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is composed of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Sea level rises of 0.5 m, 1 m, 2 m, and 3 m were considered as the climate exposure. Sensitivity to sea level rise was measured based on the percentage of flooded area calculated using flood simulation with a GIS tool. The population density and the population at age 65 years and over were also included in the calculation of sensitivity index. Sensitivities to heat wave and heavy rainstorm were quantified using the expert opinions from the Delphi survey and information on land use classification. Adaptive capacity was assessed in three sections: economic capability, infrastructure, and institutional capabilities. By combining the adaptive capacity and three different sensitivities, vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR-V), vulnerability to heavy rainstorm (HR-V), and vulnerability to heat wave (HW-V) were separately evaluated in 16 counties of Busan. Using cluster analysis, we could classify four major groups of counties based on SLR-V, HR-V, HW-V, and reported damage cost. For clustered groups, different adaptation strategies were suggested based on the different vulnerability patterns. Application of our methodology to Busan indicated that our methodology is easy to use and provides concrete policy implications when setting up adaptation strategies. The methodology developed in this study could also be used in mainstreaming climate change into Integrated Coastal Management (ICM).

Challenges and Solutions for Sustainable Land Use in Ruoergai-the Highest Altitude Peatland in Qinhai-Tibetan Plateau, China

Abstract The Ruoergai peatlands play an important role in regulating the hydrology of vast upland rangelands and downstream regions - the Yellow River watershed, maintaining the biodiversity and providing living space for Tibetan pastoralists. With various channels of funds, substantial measures were taken to stop or reverse the degradations. However, the degradations associated with over-grazing and other improper resources utilization remain unsolved. The satellite images in 1977 and 2007 were analyzed with the aid of field survey through peat coring to assess the dominant degradations and seek further solutions for the sustainable land management in this area. Results show that 77% of peatlands were degraded by overgrazing and artificial drainage change for more cultivation land. Approximately, 1,568 ha of the degraded peatlands have been successfully restored by damming approach. The ecosystem functions such as their resilience to climate change and adaptive capacity to the local and downstream communities may be restored through damming approach with very little expense.

Climate Shocks and Human Mobility: Evidence from Nicaragua

Exposure and adaptive capacity determine vulnerability to climate disasters and the chosen strategies to cope with their consequences. Often, migration is an option in the set of coping strategies. In this paper, we look for empirical evidence linking exposure to climate disasters and adaptive capacity, existent at the time of the event, to the choice of migration in the aftermath of the event. In particular, we are interested in verifying whether the exposure to climate disaster, per se, is a significant determinant for migration and how it interacts with the pre-existing socio-economic conditions. With the support of household surveys from Nicaragua, before and after Hurricane Mitch affected the country in October 1998, we find evidence that in urban areas, households in the second and third quintile of wealth that were exposed to more intense rains were more likely to have any of their members migrating after the disaster; and in rural areas, for the poorest households, higher exposure meant a lower probability of any if their members to migrate.

Cross-Border Organisations as an Adaptive Water Management Response to Climate Change: The Case of the Guadiana River Basin

In this paper we analyse the role played by cross-border organisations in the Guadiana river basin in Iberia, and the extent to which new emerging institutional arrangements carry on adaptive management practice as a response to mounting climate change risks in the river basin. Particular attention is paid to the new transboundary agencies, as promoted by the EU INTERREG programmes, and their potential for mainstreaming climate change considerations into Guadiana river basin development strategies. Results indicate that the penetration of climate change concerns into regional development policies requires a better integration of different policies and improved connectivity and coordination between multiple actors operating across sectors, and at different spatial scales. We argue that the emergence of new transboundary agencies capable of performing these bridging functions is a vital ingredient for building climate adaptive capacity in these cross-border regions.

Climate change: Motivation for taking measure to adapt

We tested two consequences of a currently influential theory based on the notion of seeing adaptations to climate change as local adjustments to deal with changing conditions within the constraints of the broader economic–social–political arrangements. The notion leaves no explicit role for the strength of personal beliefs in climate change and adaptive capacity. The consequences were: (i) adaptive action to climate change taken by an individual who is exposed to and sensitive to climate change is not influenced to a considerable degree by their strength of belief in climate change and (ii) adaptive action to climate change taken by an individual who is exposed to and sensitive to climate change is not influenced to a considerable degree by their strength of belief in an adaptive capacity. Data from a 2004 questionnaire of 1950 Swedish private individual forest owners, who were assumed exposed to and sensitive to climate change, were used. Strength of belief in climate change and adaptive capacities were found to be crucial factors for explaining observed differences in adaptation among Swedish forest owners.

Igniting change in local government: lessons learned from a bushfire vulnerability assessment

Local governments and communities have a critical role to play in adapting to climate variability and change. Spatial vulnerability assessment is one tool that can facilitate engagement between researchers and local stakeholders through the visualisation of climate vulnerability and the integration of its biophysical and socio-economic determinants. This has been demonstrated through a case study from Sydney, Australia where a bushfire vulnerability assessment was undertaken as the first-step in a project to investigate local government perceptions of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity. A series of relevant biophysical and socio-economic indicators was identified that represented the region’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity with respect to bushfires. These indicators were then combined to develop maps of net landscape vulnerability to bushfire. When presented in a workshop setting, vulnerability maps were successful in capturing the attention of stakeholders while simultaneously conveying information regarding the diversity of drivers that can contribute to current and future vulnerability. However, stakeholders were reluctant to embrace representations of vulnerability that differed from their own understanding of hazard, necessitating the demonstration of agreement between the vulnerability assessment and more conventional hazard assessment tools. This validation opened the door for public dissemination of vulnerability maps, the uptake and use of the assessment in local government risk assessment and adaptation planning, and more focused case-studies on barriers to adaptation.

Spatially explicit groundwater vulnerability assessment to support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive – a practical approach with stakeholders

Abstract. The main objective of the study presented in this paper was to develop an evaluation scheme which is suitable for spatially explicit groundwater vulnerability assessment according to the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Study area was the Hase river catchment, an area of about 3 000 km2 in north-west Germany which is dominated by livestock farming, in particular pig and poultry production. For the Hase river catchment, the first inventory of the WFD led to the conclusion that 98% of the catchment area is "unclear/unlikely" to reach a good groundwater status due to diffuse nitrogen emissions from agriculture. The groundwater vulnerability assessment was embedded in the PartizipA project ("Participative modelling, Actor and Ecosystem Analysis in Regions with Intensive Agriculture", www.partizipa.net), within which a so-called actors' platform was established in the study area. The objective of the participatory process was to investigate the effects of the WFD on agriculture as well as to discuss groundwater protection measures which are suitable for an integration in the programme of measures. The study was conducted according to the vulnerability assessment concept of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, considering sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity was computed using the DRASTIC index of natural groundwater pollution potential. Exposure (for a reference scenario) was computed using the STOFFBILANZ nutrient model. Several regional studies were analysed to evaluate the adaptive capacity. From these studies it was concluded that the adaptive capacity in the Hase river catchment is very low due to the economic importance of the agricultural sector which will be significantly affected by groundwater protection measures. As a consequence, the adaptive capacity was not considered any more in the vulnerability assessment. A groundwater vulnerability evaluation scheme is presented which enjoys the advantage that both exposure and sensitivity can be operationalized in a spatially resolved manner (500×500 m grid) by the two models mentioned above. The evaluation scheme was applied in the Hase river catchment. 21% of the catchment was classified as highly vulnerable, another 73% as medium vulnerable. Only 6% of the Hase river catchment has low vulnerability. Grid cells of the high vulnerability class are considered as priority areas for groundwater protection measures in the programme of measures of the WFD. Measures will be particularly effective in the north-eastern part of the catchment where groundwater vulnerability is mainly due to high nitrogen emissions.

Climate change, adaptive capacity and policy direction in the Canadian North: Can we learn anything from the collapse of the east coast cod fishery?

Scientific evidence gathered over the past five years suggests that northern Canada and the Arctic have undergone, and are undergoing, formidable environmental changes linked to global climate change. Environmental change in the north is expected to persist and intensify over the course of the next century. When large-scale environmental changes take place, they inevitably affect people, especially when the cultures and livelihoods of those people depend on their relationship with the environment. Managing the local impacts of these changes is a matter of adaptation. This paper discusses some of the policy implications of adaptation––government interventions aiming to build communities’ and regions’ capacities to adapt to environmental changes. Three arguments for adaptive capacity building interventions in the north are discussed, and these arguments are augmented by a comparative review of government reactions to the collapse of the cod fishery in Atlantic Canada. Reactive and proactive policy approaches are discussed, and it is suggested from the comparison that proactive approaches to intervention are desirable for building adaptive capacity.

Do Regional Disparities in Research on Climate and Water Influence Adaptive Capacity?

As part of a long-term effort to both improve access to information on climate change and freshwater resources, and to understand the state of the science, we compiled an electronic bibliography of scientific literature in that area. We analyzed the distribution of information on climatic impacts on freshwater resources, with an emphasis on differences between developed and developing regions as well as differences in the types and focus of research carried out among regions. There has been more research overall in developed countries than in the developing world. Proportionally more of the available research on natural and human systems pertains to developed regions, while most of the analysis done in developing countries is limited to higher-level climatology and hydrology. We argue that scientific information and understanding are important elements of the ability to adapt to potential climatic changes. The distribution of the scientific literature in our database suggests that the types of science most directly relevant to adaptive capacity are skewed towards developed countries, which may exacerbate existing disparities in adaptive capacity, and ultimately worsen the consequences of climatic impacts in developing countries.