Clear Warning Research Articles

Consumers iews on text characteristics of product recall notices

Consumers who have suffered as a result of a product defect can claim compensation from the producer. By placing a product recall notice, producers can reduce their liability. Ideally, such a notice should protect the image of the company as well as warn consumers. The problem is that a clear warning may damage the image of the company that placed the notice. This study reports on experiments carried out among 128 female shoppers to gain insight into how a recall notice should be worded in order to protect the company’s image and, yet to be clear. Split-run tests were carried out to determine whether Minimisation (minimising the danger of the defect) and Bolstering (stressing the company’s good traits) contributed positively to the image of the company and whether inclusion of pictures, a list format, a reader-oriented approach, Minimisation, and Bolstering contrib- uted positively to the clarity of the notice. Likert scales were used to determine which heading drew most attention and through which channels consumers prefered to be informed about a product recall. According to our respondents, a recall notice including Minimisation strategies protects the company’s image more than one without such strategies. A recall notice is consid- ered clearer when it includes a picture, when it contains elements to highlight the structure of the information, and when it does not include Bolstering. According to our respondents, the most attention-grabbing heading is ‘Waarschuwing’ warning), and they prefer to be informed about product recalls through newspapers and television.

Assessing Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Central Europe

The Central European transition-accession countries Have experienced several periods of macroeconomic vulnerability since the end of output declines in the early 1990s. Some notable periods, which resulted in a necessity to implement extensive stabilisation measures, are March 1995 in Hungary, May 1997 in the Czech Republic and September 1998 in the Slovak Republic. This article shows that the standard early warning indicators provided useful information on macroeconomic vulnerability prior to the crises in Central Europe, although this information had been mainly indicative; that is, early warning indicators would not have allowed one to predict the crises and their timing. However, the growing gap between current account deficit and foreign direct investment (FDI) in all the countries analysed did provide clear early warning of subsequent economic turbulence.

Qualitative and Statistical Impacts of Home Language on Responses to the Items of the Sixteen Personality Factor Questionnaire (16PF) in South Africa

The primary aims of the study were to compare the responses of different population groups to the items of the 16 Personality Factor Questionnaire, and also to explore some of the reasons for the observed differences. One quantitative and two qualitative studies were conducted in the process. For the quantitative study, 983 students of psychology or industrial psychology from four South African universities participated in the study. For the qualitative study, two samples were used, namely 71 second-year students and 10 honours-degree students from the Department of Industrial Psychology of the University of the Western Cape. To test for statistically different response patterns between the groups on each of the items, chi-squared tests were used. The findings showed that serious problems existed as far as the comparability of the items across groups was concerned, that participants whose home language was neither English nor Afrikaans experienced critical difficulties in understanding many of the words that would, as a rule, be regarded as rudimentary by English mother-tongue speakers, and also that the manner in which the items had been constructed impeded the comprehension of respondents who did not speak English as a first language. It would appear that the observed language difficulties may be associated with a number of socio-political and educational factors, but, based on the present results, it was not possible to uncover tenable explanations of some of the differences which are not so clearly bound to language issues. Nonetheless, the nature of the findings should be interpreted to sound a clear warning against the use of the test.

Robust multiple-station magnetotelluric data processing

SUMMARY Although modern magnetotelluric ( MT) data are highly multivariate (multiple components, recorded at multiple stations), commonly used processing methods are based on univariate statistical procedures. Here we develop a practical robust processing scheme which is based on multivariate statistical methods. With this approach we use data from all channels to improve signal-to-noise ratios, and to diagnose possible biases due to coherent noise. To illustrate our approach we use data from two- and three-station wide-band MT arrays from an area south of San Francisco, California, where contamination of the MT signal by spatially coherent cultural electromagnetic noise is severe at some periods. To deal with such coherent noise we adopt a two-stage procedure. In the first stage we focus on reducing the effects of incoherent noise, and testing for the presence of coherent noise. To this end we have developed a robust multivariate errors-in-variables ( RMEV) estimator, which estimates background noise levels, cleans up outliers in all channels, and determines the ‘coherence dimension’ of the array data. In the absence of coherent noise, the coherence dimension of the data will be two (corresponding to two polarizations of the plane-wave MT source fields). In this case the RMEV estimator provides direct estimates of MT impedances and inter-station transfer functions. We show, with synthetic and real data examples, that in some cases these estimates can be significantly better than those obtained with more standard robust remote reference estimators. When MT data is severely contaminated by coherent noise (as for our example arrays for periods of 4-50s) the coherence dimension of the data will exceed two. The RMEV estimate thus provides a clear warning of coherent noise contamination. Although there appears to be no completely general automatic way to deal with this circumstance, useful results can be obtained from severely contaminated data in some cases. We show in particular how the RMEV estimator can be adapted to separate the MT signal from coherent noise for two special cases: when at least one site is unaffected by coherent noise, and when coherent noise sources are intermittent. We give examples of significant improvements in MT impedance estimates obtained with the RMEV estimate for each of these cases.

FDA urged to allow sale of unapproved drugs

Calling for reform of the Food & Drug Administration, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank proposes modifying the agency's power to ban new drugs and devices that do not meet its strict efficacy and safety criteria. Instead of banning such drugs and devices outright, FDA could certify them, says the Competitive Enterprise Institute. Such certification would allow marketing of some drugs and devices by prescription—but with a clear warning of their unapproved status. The decision to use the drug or device would then be made between the patient and physician, the institute argues. Institute general counsel Sam Kazman says this modest proposal would save lives by letting patients obtain drugs and devices that they and their physicians consider safe and efficacious but which FDA has not yet approved. Kazman contends new institutions would be created, or already exist, to help physicians evaluate such unapproved drugs and devices. Vetting tools could include approval in foreign countries and ...

Western Democracies at a Crossroads

WESTERN DEMOCRACIES AT A CROSSROADS Jahangir Amuzegar T,he summer of 1990 will long be remembered as a very active period in global diplomacy. A series of summit meetings of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris, the European Community (EC) in Dublin, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in London, and the Group of Seven (G-7) industrial countries in Houston followed within a few weeks of each other. These historic conferences marked the end of the 45-year Cold War, the eclipse of communism as an ideological and moral doctrine, and the decline of the Soviet Union as both a global superpower and the world's last empire. The breakup of the Eastern bloc, the absence of a Soviet threat, and the end of the arms race should hold forth the hope of a more promising relationship among the industrial democracies. The West's ideological, strategic, and economic victory over the communist camp logically should pave the way for closer economic cooperation, in lieu ofthe past emphasis on political and military alliance. Yet, ironically, the potential for such an outcome cannot be taken for granted. Constant vigilance is still needed to maintain Western solidarity in the political and economic arenas. Chances are that, without proper foresight and intelligence, divergent national objectives and interests might stifle the type of cooperation strategy needed to ensure world peace and prosperity. Although the demise of the old politico-military bipolarity may open opportunities for Jahangir Amuzegar is an international economic consultant, a former executive director of the International Monetary Fund, and a former member of the SAIS faculty. 27 28 SAIS REVIEW expanded trade, investment, and exchange of technology, the perils of intensified economic factionalism and rivalry must not be ignored. The checkered history of economic cooperation among the G-7 in the past two decades gives a clear warning of the potential for political conflicts, economic clashes, and trade wars. Dissension in Houston Early signs ofsuch divisions could already be detected at the Houston summit. With respect to almost all major issues on the summit's agenda—agriculture, aid to the Soviet Union, relaxation of economic sanctions against China, debt reliefto the Third World, and environmental protection—the leaders were deeply divided. Summit strategists chose to focus on areas of easily attainable consensus while papering over contentious issues by allowing individual nations to go their own way. On some points, private reservations were in sharp contrast with seemingly unqualified public support. The carefully crafted final summit communiqué, with masterful vagueness and judiciously selected code words, spoke confidently of the substantial progress achieved in recent years in promoting a stronger world economy, supporting income growth and job creation, expanding international trade, and reducing imbalances in Japan and the United States. Continuing high unemployment levels in some countries, the lingering threat of inflation in others, and the danger of protectionism, according to the communiqué, required that deficit countries (meaning the United States) reduce fiscal deficits, encourage private savings, and increase competitiveness. Surplus nations (meaning Germany and Japan) were once again called upon to stimulate domestic demand and to promote domestic investment. A successful outcome to the Uruguay Round oftrade negotiations—to be concluded by the end ofthe year—was given the highest priority on the international economic agenda. To this end, members were asked to agree to greater liberalization of trade in agriculture and progressive reduction in support and protection of farm products. Free flows of direct foreign investment, special attention to the plight of the neediest countries, debt reduction and relief for nations implementing reforms, and new loans by public and private agencies were among the other economic prescriptions. Finally, there was renewed commitment to preserve the environment for coming generations.1 1. For the full text of the communiqué, see The New York Times, July 12, 1990. WESTERN DEMOCRACIES AT A CROSSROADS 29 Public reaction to these high-minded declarations was a combination of skepticism, caution, and anticipation. More than anything else the communiqué was considered a political statement, falling short of any sanctioned commitments. Specific agreements on a vast array of key economic issues were reduced to a set of compromises that helped preserve a semblance of...

Introductions and extinction of fish in the African great lakes

The great lakes of Africa contain one of the most remarkable known examples of rapid evolution and speciation of a vertebrate group. The three major lakes — Lake Victoria, Lake Malawi and Lake Tanganyika — each contain a unique radiation of fish belonging to the family Cichlidae. This has produced species ‘flocks’ that are unique to each lake in species numbers and diversity. At present most of the cichlid species in Lake Victoria are facing extinction as a result of the introduction of an exotic fish species. There are many other examples of introductions or invasions of non-native fish that have had severe effects on the native fish populations and regional economics. These examples should provide a clear warning against the proposed introductions of exotic fish into Lake Malawi.

Use made in marine ecology of methods for estimating demographic parameters from size/frequency data

Macdonald and Pitcher's method of decomposing a sizefrequency histogram into cohorts (mathematical optimization of the fit of the distribution function to the histogram) has been used to estimate the composition of random samples drawn from populations with known cohort structure. The large-sample behaviour of the method is in accordance with the results of asymptotic theory. With sample sizes typical of those used in many ecological studies, good estimates often could not be obtained without imposing constraints upon the estimation procedure, even when the number of age classes in the population was known. If the number of age classes was not known, it was frequently difficult to determine from small samples. When unconstrained solutions were obtainable, confidence limits about estimates were often very wide. Our results and information in the theoretical literature indicate that if the Petersen method (whereby several modes on a size-frequency histogram are taken to represent single age classes and all age classes to be present) does not work, accurate estimates of demographic parameters are unlikely to be obtainable using more rigorous methods. In view of these difficulties, we recommend that an iptimization method, such as that described by Macdonald and Pitcher, be used to estimate demographic parameters. Standard errors of estimates should be reported. Optimization methods give an indication when the data is inadequate to obtain accurate parameter estimates, either by failing to converge or by placing large standard errors about the estimates. Graphical methods do not give a clear warning of this, and should be avoided except where the modes on the size-frequency histogram are very well separated and sample sizes are large. Often, assumptions must be made about population parameters to enable their estimation. This may involve constraining some parameters to particular values, assuming a fixed relationship between cohort mean sizes and their standard deviations, or by assuming that individuals grow according to a von Bertalanffy curve. Any such assumptions need detailed justification in each case.

Historical update and new developments on the EMG-force relationships of skeletal muscles.

The EMG-force relationships of skeletal muscles are of significant interest to the orthopedic-biomechanics researcher and have been a topic of interest and controversy for the last three decades. We present the developments reported in the literature, from the early 1950s, relevant to this topic, outlining the details of the controversy and providing additional new information resulting from recent studies. New data clearly illustrate that the EMG-force relationships are dependent on the firing rate and recruitment control strategy used by a muscle. Muscles that use motor unit recruitment to obtain the initial 50% of their maximal force, and use firing rate increase to complement the remaining 50%, have a nearly linear EMG-force relationship. Muscles that use recruitment to obtain 60% and up to 100% of their maximal force demonstrate progressive increase in non-linearity of their EMG-force curves. A clear warning is issued against the indiscriminate use of EMG as a representative of muscle force. The recruitment pattern of the muscle under consideration should first be obtained in such a way that the appropriate EMG-force curve is selected.

‘Ideas’ in Berkeley and Arnauld

Over the years, John Yolton has done as much as any to change our understanding of Locke and, though the changes have been various and complex, one striking result is that commentators are now much less ready to assume that Locke is a ‘representationalist’.’ To be sure, J. L. Mackie is one commentator who has tried to reattach that label to him,2 but nothing hangs on a word. Even A. D. Woozley, who has vigorously opposed the traditional interpretation, concedes that ‘certainly he held some kind of representationalism’; but, as Woozley says, the question is ‘what kind?” We may not be in total agreement about the answer, but few would now be happy to state confidently (as R. I. Aaron did in his book) that, for Locke: ‘The mind does not see the real physical object. It sees an object which somehow exists in the mind, and yet it is not the mind itself, nor a modification of the mind.14 For Woozley, Locke’s ideas are not ‘things’ at all. For Yolton they are not ‘entities’. And Mackie too sees no reason to attribute a ‘crudely representative’ theory to Locke. In fact, he says, as ‘appearances’, ideas are ‘not a special kind of entity’. Instead, ‘to speak of appearances is just to speak generally of such matters as how-it-looks or how-itfeels’, where the ‘it’ is the object concerned. Not surprisingly, Yolton quotes this with at least qualified approval, though he prefers to think of Locke’s ideas as perceptions, or as perceptions with content. ‘It is easy’, he adds, ‘to slip into talking of the content as if it is an objecr; but Locke’s discussion of Malebranche, with some explicit passages from the Essay, gives us a clear warning against reading his account of ideas in that way.‘S I am going to assume that Yolton is broadly right about Locke.6 In part, our understanding of Locke’s position has changed because once the question is raised as to whether he really did hold the view traditionally attributed to him, it becomes very difficult to find passages in theEssay that make it clear that he did; while the few passages that may strike us at first as obvious candidates turn out, on reflection, to be susceptible to an alternative interpretation. But there is also the fact that, contra Reid, there seems to have been no general agreement at the time that ‘the immediate objects of perception are only certain shadows of the external objects’. Some writers did think this, or at least wrote as if they did, with Ephraim Chambers for example observing that when we look at the sun, ‘we do not see that Luminary itself, but its Image or Appearance convey’d to the Soul by the Organ of Sight; and this Image we call Zdea’.7 But others did not. In his PerceptualAcquaintance Yolton is concerned to

Style and Rectitude in Seventeenth-Century Prose: Hall, Smectymnuus, and Milton

The major problem in discussing Milton's Animadversions and Apology is strongly personal vehemence of style. This is different from rather more institutionalized zeal of two earlier tracts. In Of Reformation and Of Prelatical Episcopacy there is initially embarrassing contiguity of peevishness and sublimity, but two strains merge convincingly in first tract and at least functionally in other. In Animadversions Upon Remonstrants Defence Against Smectymnuus (1641) reconciliation of styles is less apparent. The major purpose of this essay is to show complex articulation of those two strains and to suggest that under seeming diffuseness of tract there lies a rational and strongly patterened argument. Within that rational argument personal digressions are not only interesting; they are appropriate.1 Traditionally, scene has been described as bully (John) and victim (Joseph). Even Milton's strongest supporters define major personae of controversy as The Humble Remonstrant and The Angry Animadverter. Don M. Wolfe writes of Bishop Hall as an urbane blending of classical and Christian moderation . . .[who] despite his deep learning and geniune humility possessed little understanding of forces that were uprooting English society.2 Rudolf Kirk, editor of Animadversions, criticizes Milton's scarcely condonable language initiated [sic] against a good man (656, 655). Long ago, J. Milton French described Milton's rough castigation of Hall as having the humor of a gigantic cat with ultra-stupid mouse.3 Recent attempts to salvage Milton have turned to exploration of Marprelate tradition, to emphasis on personae as ethical proof and to a computer-based comparison of styles.4 The late Joan Webber's brilliantly suggestive The Eloquent 'I' has stimulated interest in conceptions of self-hood in this period and specifically in these tracts.' The most accurate discussions are those which put controversy into its most detailed context. Masson and J. A. St. John are still surprisingly useful;6 and William Riley Parker has provided a clear warning against accepting cliches about Hall, Smectymnuus and Milton in this context:

Obstacles to Economic Growth in Nineteenth-Century Mexico

THE ECONOMIC HISTORY OF MEXICO HAS ADVANCED dramatically in recent years. The most important revisionist work has concentrated on the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, although major works have appeared on the sixteenth, seventeenth, and twentieth centuries as well.' Much of the new research has been quantitative or comparative, linking the study of Mexico's past to methodological currents in the United States and Western Europe.2 It is now possible to revise some of the principal hypotheses about Mexico's relative backwardness since the end of the colonial era. Comparative estimates of Mexican gross national product in the nineteenth century can be used to assess the impact of revisionist work on standard interpretations of Mexico's economic history from the Bourbons to the Revolution of I9IO. By way of introduction, two caveats are worth stressing. First, spurious precision infects all, or nearly all, quantitative historical work. Margins of error are necessarily large in estimates of national product based on fragmentary data, the guesswork of interested contemporaries, and the imagination of the modern researcher. This is even truer of estimates produced to test hypotheses about what might have been, as the "new economic history" has amply demonstrated during the past decade or so in the United States. I take it as a duty, therefore, to issue a clear warning: all of the numbers in this article are, without exception, inaccurate; however, that is not a valid argument against their use. Literary estimates typically contain fewer errors (we

Poisoning From Ingestion Of Asthma "Powders"

<h3>To the Editor:—</h3> In the past several months, seven young male patients, all hospitalized in a psychiatric facility, have ingested varying quantities of Asthmador, a proprietary drug sold in powder form to be ignited and the vapor inhaled for the relief of asthma. (On the label of the product there is a clear warning against oral use.) According to a written communication from R. S. Stewart of the manufacturing company, Asthmador contains two solanaceous herbs,<i>Atropa belladonna</i>and<i>Datura stramonium</i>, whose active principles are atropine and scopolamine. The drug was taken orally by the seven patients for the stated purpose of "getting high" or "getting a kick." Five patients took the drug together on the hospital grounds. The other two patients took the drug on separate occasions while away from the hospital. They stated they took from 1 1/2 to 4 teaspoons, the dose varying according to the individual. One

Prevention of deafness.

THE PREVENTION of deafness should be a constant and major objective in otology, both before any sign of trouble is evident and after poor hearing has supervened. At all levels of hearing loss, prevention is of primary importance. At first thought it would appear that there is no problem when there is no deafness. How can one prevent something which shows no sign of appearing and, by common experience, does not therefore impend? Moreover, first signs are faint, so faint that they flash no clear warning of disaster. They may arise from many widely separated parts of the body and from many different causes, any one of which may not and generally does not cause any deafness whatsoever. Nevertheless, the sure way is to take preventive measures early and, when possible, before any signs of deafness appear. This is the challenge, and slowly but surely medical knowledge and skill have

The Control of Plant Diseases

“Be ye ashamed, oh ye husbandmen; howl, oh ye vinedressers, for the wheat and for the barley; because the harvest of the field is perished. I have smitten you with blasting and mildew.” JOEL i. 11 and AMOS iv. 9. TN opening the discussion between Sections K and M on the control of plant diseases, at the Leeds meeting of the British Association, Mrs. N. L. Alcock chose the above text, and passing lightly over the superstitions of the past regarding disease, she turned to the problem of control as seen to-day by the pathologist and agriculturalist. From the practical point of view, the first full recognition of the importance of plant diseases came with the epidemic of American gooseberry mildew. In 1905, Prof. Salmon, of Wye Agricultural College, while Ireland alone of the British Isles was definitely affected by the disease, gave a clear warning of the need of legislative control of both American gooseberry mildew and of potato wart disease. In another direction the warning was spread in 1909 by Prof. Sommerville in his references to the white pine blister rust, Cronartium ribicola, which he stated was still unknown in America, though it was to be feared that the day was not far distant when its footing in North America would be secured. To-day the losses in America due to this disease are credibly reckoned as enormous.