Civil War Research Articles

New Estimates of US Civil War mortality from full-census records

The Civil War was the deadliest conflict in US history. However, incomplete records have made it difficult to estimate the exact death toll both nationally, and especially, at the state level. In this article, we leverage the recently released full count of individual census returns and a sample of linked records across multiple censuses to provide i) the most precise national estimate of excess mortality to date and ii) reliable state-level estimates of excess mortality among native-born white males. Our national estimate is 698,000 Civil War deaths. This is substantially higher than the conventional historical estimate of 618,000 but lower than the most recent estimate of around 750,000 deaths based on a 1% census sample. Leveraging a novel migration-adjusted census comparison method, we document the extent to which the war’s toll was much greater in the Confederate states than in the Union.

Wpływ wojny domowej w Hiszpanii na aktywność terenową Komunistycznej Partii Zachodniej Białorusi i jej sympatyków w latach 1936–1939

The Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) activated many political circles operating in the Second Republic. It also influenced the activity of the communist movement and, after the dissolution of its structures in 1938, its former activists and sympathisers. The article is devoted to the manifestations of the field activity of communist structures and the influence of the Iberian Peninsula conflict on that part of the Belarusian society which favourably received the message formulated by local communists or coming directly from the USSR. Issues such as the propaganda illumination of the war in Spain, the reception of recruitment slogans for the army of the Republic, and the problem of inspiring a financial effort in its favour are addressed. The echoes of the Spanish conflict, considered in the context of the functioning of the KPZB and its supporters, make it possible to conclude that this was an important but not a priority direction in the Communists’ activities. At the same time, they were part of the trend of growing pro-Soviet sentiments observable among the Belarusian community of the Second Republic.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy Under MBS: Transition from Defensive Realism to Offensive Realism (2016-2023)

This study seeks to elucidate the underlying factors driving Saudi Arabia’s shift from defense realism to offensive realism, focusing on MBS’s authoritarian rule and structural reforms aimed at minimizing bureaucratic hurdles in security and defense decision-making. The research examines the kingdom’s transition from conservative foreign policies to a more activist stance, illustrated by its support for Palestine and its adoption of non-conventional approaches to address emerging challenges. Adopting the John Scott document analysis model and utilizing secondary data, this study delves into the nuances of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy shift under MBS’s leadership. It examines how his leadership style, combined with Vision 2030 goals and objectives, reflects a post-ideologically motivated transition that seeks to assert power and influence in the Middle East. The research explores the potential implications of this shift on regional security, including the Yemen civil war, balance of power realignment, and Saudi Arabia’s relationships with Western partners.

How climate volatility influences human rights

We explore how climate volatility influences human rights practices. We argue that climate volatility intensifies competition for material resources, increases citizens’ grievances against the state, and leads to more frequent repression as governments seek to respond to environmentally induced protests and local conflicts. We situate this argument in the existing literature’s emphasis on three mechanisms linking climate shocks and repression: resource shocks, mobilization shocks, and migration shocks. We assert that the climate volatility-human rights relationship is strongest in the context of civil conflict as rebel groups and governments place a higher priority on survival and material well-being rather than governance and public goods provision. Using a pooled time series dataset of 194 countries from 1946 to 2017, we estimate a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. Our analyses show that for countries experiencing armed conflicts, increased precipitation volatility significantly reduces human rights protections for multiple years. Indicators for the three mechanisms also show indirect relationships to repression through the precipitation variable, consistent with our theory. We illustrate our findings with case vignettes from Benin and Mali. Our results demonstrate that climate volatility alters states’ strategies for addressing internal security threats.

Creative Research Methods and Civilian Agency in Civil Wars: Crafting the Past Through Memory Workshops in Colombia

ABSTRACT This article explores the potentialities of memory workshops for studying civilian agency in violent settings. Drawing from field research with campesino communities in Colombia, it provides a description of the workshops’ implementation process, including creative tools such as memory web creation, collective drawing of timelines and exploration of emotional biographies. Through these activities, campesinos reflected on the embodied and discursive relations within their communities, evoking experiences and practices of wartime. The article highlights the limitations of conventional research methods and proposes memory workshops as a methodological alternative that foregrounds the co-production of data, facilitating the emergence of localised knowledge and self-authorship.

Is the decline of war a delusion? The long peace phenomenon and the modernization peace – the explanation that refutes or subsumes all others

ABSTRACT The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the China challenge, revive the question of whether the world is becoming more peaceful. Realists’ claim that we told you so compares oranges with cabbage. Today’s world is divided into a “zone of peace”, encompassing all the developed countries, and a “zone of war”, comprising less developed countries. Within the former, interstate wars, civil wars, and the “security dilemma” itself have all disappeared. The Long Peace since 1945 is widely attributed to nuclear deterrence. However, the sharp decrease in war had begun during the 19th century. The effect of industrialization is the greatest lacuna in IR theory. The Malthusian Trap that plagued premodern societies has been broken. Wealth is no longer finite and a zero-sum game. This transformation has made democracies as well as nondemocracies fight much less, and has sharply increased international trade. It underlies both the democratic/liberal and capitalist/trade interdependence peace.

Elite theory and politicization of negotiated settlement: challenges to peace durability in Colombia

ABSTRACT Ending civil conflict is difficult, particularly through negotiated settlements. The research finds that the durability of peace guaranteed through a negotiated settlement can be affected when the opposing elites politicize the concessions made with rebels. Through politicization, the space in societal acceptance of rebels in post-war negotiations can be used by the opposing elites to gain a political support base, thereby challenging the delicate power-sharing agreement. Further, the politicization of the deal remains a hindrance to the sequencing of Transitional Justice (TJ) goals making the society more polarized and pushing it to violence, as the transition from the civil war to peace needs compromise and calculated sequencing of goals of TJ.

Multidimensional geographic factors behind conflicts: a case study in Sudan

ABSTRACT Sudan has been racked by complex and volatile conflicts for decades, with a new round of civil conflict erupting in April 2023, leading to significant loss of life and property. Despite the ongoing violence, the associations between conflicts and local contextual factors remain ambiguous. In this study, we developed an event-grid dataset, consisting of 50,033 observations with 20 variables derived from nighttime light (NTL) data, OpenStreetMap data, and other geographic data. Machine learning algorithms were employed to model the outbreak of conflict in 2023. Furthermore, the SHapley Additive exPlanations method was utilized to explain the relationships between diverse explanatory variables and conflicts. The results indicate that eXtreme Gradient Boosting model outperforms other models, such as Categorical Boosting and Light Gradient Boosting Machine. Multiple factors jointly contribute to conflicts. NTL-derived variables and transportation-related variables emerge as the most influential factors, followed by climate and agricultural factors. Regions characterized by economic inequality and proximity to transportation hubs are found to be more prone to conflicts. Additionally, variables impact the outbreak of conflict not only individually but also through mutual interactions. Notably, this study enhances a comprehensive and quantitative understanding of conflicts in Sudan, providing valuable insights to support humanitarian aid efforts.

Post-War Reconciliation Process in Sri Lanka: A Unique Path to Peace Building

This study examines the unique aspects of Sri Lanka’s peacebuilding and ethnic reconciliation process following the end of its civil war in 2009. Unlike many post-conflict societies that rely on formal peace agreements, Sri Lanka's reconciliation efforts were driven by a military victory without a negotiated settlement between conflicting parties. This study discusses key milestones in Sri Lanka’s reconciliation journey, including institutional reforms such as the Lessons Learned and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) and the Office of Missing Persons (OMP). It examines the unique challenges, including political dominance in the process, limited engagement of minority communities, and inconsistencies in policy frameworks. The study provides a comprehensive understanding of the factors that have shaped Sri Lanka's reconciliation approach by drawing on qualitative data from key informant interviews (KII) and through a comparative analysis with global post-conflict practices. Ultimately, this study offers valuable insights for policymakers and scholars on the complexities of peacebuilding in unique post-conflict settings, highlighting the need for more inclusive and sustainable efforts to achieve lasting peace.

The enigma of the number of ʿAlawis in Syria: 11% indeed?

This article intends to interrogate a common figure that seems to have become accepted in research concerning the number of the ʿAlawis in Syria during the last century. A thorough examination of the dramatic shifts in Syria during the last decades, mainly from the rise of the Asad family to power in 1970, indicates that the number of the ʿAlawis in the Syrian population has diminished gradually, while the number of the Sunni majority remains relatively high. Apart from official surveys and assessments, this study takes into consideration several factors, such as religious conservatism, socio-economic status, immigration into the country, urbanization and other aspects. All the relevant factors indicate that the number of ʿAlawis in the eve of the civil war (2011) was significantly lower than accepted in research, a conclusion that sheds new light on the degree of the threat to their survival which the sect has faced during this conflict.

The final plague outbreak in Scotland 1644-1649: Historical, archaeological, and genetic evidence.

This paper has several aims: to determine if Yersinia pestis was the causative agent in the last Scottish plague outbreak in the mid-17th century; map the geographic spread of the epidemic and isolate potential contributing factors to its spread and severity; and examine funerary behaviours in the context of a serious plague epidemic in early modern Scotland. Results confirm the presence of Y. pestis in individuals associated with a mid-17th century plague pit in Aberdeen. This is the first time this pathogen has been identified in an archaeological sample from Scotland. The geographic spread of the plague from 1644 through to 1649 is generally, with some key exceptions, restricted to the central lowlands of Scotland. The role of administrative responses to the epidemic in managing its spread and distribution is unclear. Finally, normative funerary practices tended to co-exist with mass burial scenarios. In conclusion, the distribution of the epidemic is arguably a function of population density/distribution, transportation networks, and the chaos associated with the concurrent civil war. Administrative responses to the epidemic likely had a variable, albeit limited, effect in the central lowlands. More peripheral cities, such as Aberdeen, while also employing sophisticated plague prevention measures, were perhaps initially spared simply due to their distance from the central plague belt. It is unclear if a general fear of the dead and contracting the Pest from plague victims can be used to characterise mid-17th century Scottish public opinion. Mass burial appears to have been a practical approach to the logistical problems mass mortality presented, while many instances of normative burial treatment can also be seen.

Narratives of reconciliation in Caesar’s Commentarii

Abstract Romans appreciated reconciliation and even celebrated and advertised it by dedicating temples and coins to Concordia. Accordingly, Caesar’s Commentarii value reconciliation as well. Indeed, I will argue that, in spite of the war-bulletin tone that often pervades the Commentarii, reconciliation plays a key-role in Caesar’s accounts both of the Gallic and of the Civil War. In particular, in the first part of my paper I consider some narrative strategies whereby Caesar advertises his openness toward reconciliation in BG. Caesar’s self-fashioning in his dealings with Dumnorix and Ariovistus in BG 1 exemplifies a typical script: Caesar (says he) is willing to extend his gratia, but some enemies refuse it, and Caesar’s biased narrative presents such refusal as highly unreasonable; but their stubbornness voids any attempt at reconciliation, and war ensues. Other episodes from the BG confirm this pattern. In part two, through an analysis of the siege at Brundisium (BC 1.26) and of the blockade at Oricum (3.15), I suggest that, in the BC, Caesar follows the same script as in the BG; but the BC presents a more rich and technical vocabulary of reconciliation along with some exceptional narratological devices. I try to show how the artful narrator sharpens his tools to deal with the thorny topic of reconciliation in a civil war. In the third and last part of my paper, I place Caesar’s representation against two contemporary letters found in Cicero’s correspondence with Atticus; briefly, I consider some contemporary responses to Caesar’s narratives of reconciliation.

Reconciliation and Civil War in Plutarch’s Life of Pompey

Abstract Reconciliation is a central theme in Plutarch’s political reflections, prominently discussed in his treatise Praecepta gerendae reipublicae. In this work, Plutarch criticizes the competitive nature of the aristocrats of his own time, which often led to factional conflicts (στάσεις) necessitating Roman intervention. Thus, he advocates for reconciliation as a proactive strategy to prevent warfare and maintain state harmony (ὁμόνοια). These considerations are crucial for interpreting certain passages in the Life of Pompey, where Plutarch reflects in depth on the dynamics that led to the Civil War of 49 BCE. In this biography, Pompey is criticized for rejecting Caesar’s proposals for reconciliation, viewing this refusal as the direct cause of the civil war’s outbreak. However, the deeper reason for the conflict is identified in the rivalry among Pompey, Caesar, and Crassus, which had been skilfully masked by their apparent friendship, achieved in part through the reconciliation between Pompey and Crassus. The Life of Pompey thus adds a layer of complexity to the explicit lessons of the Praecepta; nevertheless, it does not contradict them, since Plutarch’s ultimate concern, both in the Moralia and the Lives, is the preservation of concord within the state.

Institutions, power-sharing, and the cohesiveness of rebel coalitions in the Syrian civil war

ABSTRACT Which factors contribute to the cohesion of alliances among rebel groups during civil wars? Through the case of the Syrian civil war, which experienced a high level of fragmentation and cohesion among rebel groups, we emphasise how the establishment and implementation of power-sharing mechanisms in horizontal wartime institutions ensure lasting cohesion in alliances. Moreover, we posit how the mere establishment of these mechanisms is insufficient, and they must be effectively implemented. The implementation of power-sharing mechanisms in horizontal wartime institutions increases the costs of defection, and it reduces the incentives for unilateral defection from an alliance by coalition members.

Military doctors: personal tragedies against the background of the Civil War

The factual data on the tragic events of the Civil War, including “red” and “White” terror, are presented. Biographical information about doctors and nurses from White Army military units and Workers’ and Peasants’ Red Army who were killed, captured, or shot during the war is provided.

Dispersing into the ether: a discourse on how the Ugandan government banished the LRA to the shadow realm

ABSTRACT When Yoweri Museveni took power in Uganda in 1986, the NRM administration was faced with a press of problems. Of the plethora of insurgencies that emerged, the LRA perdured staging a virulent guerrilla campaign. Its leader, Joseph Kony, has long been one of Africa’s notorious warlords. For over three decades, his group has struck terror. Today, Kony’s firm grip on the rebellion is loosening. Recent defectors have suggested that he no longer enjoys absolute control. Short of declaring the end of the LRA menace, this article establishes that the prospects of this group overthrowing Museveni from distant bases in the remotest Kafia Kingi enclave in western South Sudan, where they collect and sell honey and alluvial gold, are unfeasible. What led to this outcome in the Ugandan civil war? Inasmuch as the government’s counterinsurgency efforts were focused on the pacification of Acholiland through population concentration; and, elimination and containment approaches of the LRA; Museveni also managed to build a network of regional and international coalitions. This strategy isolated the LRA and allowed for overt military interventions in Southern Sudan, DRC, and CAR. It is the meld of these strategies which combined to expel the LRA from Uganda.

Protection of ICRC’s Mandates in Non-International Armed Conflict: A case of States vis-à-vis Non-States Armed Groups

The International Committee of Red Cross (ICRC) focuses on giving effect the rules of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and humanitarian principles generally. In its establishment, the ICRC was given promotive and protective mandates in both armed conflicts namely International Armed Conflicts (IAC) and Non-international Armed Conflicts (NIAC) however; mandates of ICRC in NIAC are much more limited compared to IAC. This means that, the rules of IHL governing NIAC do not provide explicitly the mandates of ICRC. Several states have developed anti-terrorism laws which aid them to fight against terrorism; these anti-terrorism laws developed by states refer NIAC as terrorism and thus, affect the mandates of ICRC during NIAC. States criminalize any organizations from providing any kind of assistance be it of humanitarian nature or not to the armed combatants during NIAC. These include armed combatants of the organized armed groups who are termed as the terrorists in case they are detained by the states armed forces. ICRC staff members have been facing difficulties in performing ICRC’s mandates over the civilians and combatants of the organized armed groups who are under urgent need of humanitarian assistance. States do not guarantee humanitarian activities by ICRC staff members to the so-called terrorists. As the result ICRC is facing accusations of being involved in terrorism. Therefore, in order to perform its mandates, ICRC needs legal access to interact by both State and Non-States Armed Groups (NSAG’s), for issuance of humanitarian assistance to the detained persons and protection of wounded and sick for their reliefs. The article carries with it a reformative agenda as far as mandates of ICRC in NIAC are concerned

Diagrammatic devices in early to mid-twentieth-century American art pedagogy

ABSTRACT Diagrams demonstrating principles of formal arrangement (what is commonly called composition or design) were pervasive in the production and interpretation of pictorial art in the United States throughout the first half of the twentieth century. This essay surveys three of the most influential: a Japan-inspired design manual written by art educator Arthur Dow and first published in 1899; a WWI-era proportional scheme devised by illustrator and amateur classical archeologist Jay Hambidge, and a series of essays from 1926 on the ‘mechanics of form organization’ by painter (and, at the time, Art Students League of New York instructor), Thomas Hart Benton. These and similar devices were an integral part of the relentless standardization and self-conscious modernization of artists’ methods modeled on industrial processes of mass production and pursued between the Civil War and the Great Depression by educators and policy-makers interested in establishing the teaching of art in the United States on a more practical basis than that provided by the European academic tradition. Despite their once near-ubiquity and pivotal role in the development of several generations of American modernists, including Georgia O’Keeffe, George Bellows and Jackson Pollock, as described here, these hugely popular devices are almost entirely forgotten today.

Spain in Our Ears: International Musical Responses in Support of the Republic during the Spanish Civil War. Ed. by Igor Contreras Zubillaga and Eva Moreda Rodríguez

<i>Spain in Our Ears: International Musical Responses in Support of the Republic during the Spanish Civil War</i>. Ed. by Igor Contreras Zubillaga and Eva Moreda Rodríguez

The Invisibility of Sudan’s Civil War

The Invisibility of Sudan’s Civil War