The enigma of the number of ʿAlawis in Syria: 11% indeed?

Abstract

This article intends to interrogate a common figure that seems to have become accepted in research concerning the number of the ʿAlawis in Syria during the last century. A thorough examination of the dramatic shifts in Syria during the last decades, mainly from the rise of the Asad family to power in 1970, indicates that the number of the ʿAlawis in the Syrian population has diminished gradually, while the number of the Sunni majority remains relatively high. Apart from official surveys and assessments, this study takes into consideration several factors, such as religious conservatism, socio-economic status, immigration into the country, urbanization and other aspects. All the relevant factors indicate that the number of ʿAlawis in the eve of the civil war (2011) was significantly lower than accepted in research, a conclusion that sheds new light on the degree of the threat to their survival which the sect has faced during this conflict.