City Shrinkage Research Articles

The Impact of Population Shrinkage on Economic Resilience in Mountain Cities: A Case Study of Guizhou Province, China

With the recent changes in population structure and continuous urbanization, the degree of population shrinkage in mountain cities has increased, especially under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, and the economic development of such mountain cities has become a prominent issue. The epidemic has not only exposed the vulnerability of these cities to economic development but also aggravated the negative impact of population contraction, bringing about new challenges and pressures related to regional population development and economic resilience. This change has become an important topic in the study of mountain cities. Therefore, taking Guizhou Province as a case study, this work applies the population change rate, the entropy method, and a mediation effect model to study the spatiotemporal evolution of population shrinkage and economic resilience, and it explores how population shrinkage influences economic resilience. The results reveal the following: (1) Few counties experienced population shrinkage in Guizhou Province from 2013 to 2017, indicating a sporadic distribution pattern, whereas the degree of population shrinkage increased rapidly from 2018 to 2022, revealing an east–west symmetrical distribution pattern, with Guiyang city located on the central axis. (2) There are significant regional differences in the spatial distribution of the level of economic resilience between the two periods. Under the impact of COVID-19, from 2019 to 2022, although the overall level of economic resilience increased, the level of resilience in most counties tended to decrease. (3) Regarding the mediating effect, population shrinkage affected the level of economic resilience through general public budget expenditure, foreign trade investment, new urban employment, and GDP. The abovementioned findings are helpful for providing theoretical support and empirical guidance for the sustainable development of mountain cities in the face of population contraction, economic challenges, and promoting regional coordination.

Will urban scale affect health services inequity? The empirical evidence from cities in China.

The equity of public resources triggered by city shrinkage is a global challenge. Significantly, the impact of city shrinkage on the allocation of health service resources needs to be better understood. This study explores the impact of population change on government investment and health service delivery in shrinking cities. Using data from China's Urban Statistical Yearbook (2010-2020), we employ regression discontinuity (RD) and fixed-effect models to examine the causal relationship between city shrinkage and health service provision. Shrinking cities show significant disparities in health resources, particularly in bed numbers (-1,167.58, p < 0.05) and doctor availability (-538.54, p < 0.05). Economic development (p < 0.01) and financial autonomy (p < 0.01) influence hospital bed distribution. Investments in public services (primary schools and teachers, p < 0.01) affect health resource delivery. Robustness tests support our results. This study reveals how city shrinkage disrupts health service provision and equity, establishing a causal relationship between city shrinkage/expansion and health resource allocation, emphasizing the imbalance caused by urban population changes. City expansion intensifies competition for health resources, while shrinking cities struggle to provide adequate resources due to government reluctance. Policymakers should adapt health resource allocation strategies to meet patient demands in changing urban landscapes.

Research on spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of county-level urban shrinkage in urbanizing China

County-level cities, as small-scale urban units in China's urban system, have shrunk due to uneven urban development in urbanizing China. This research constructed a framework for understanding China's county-level urban shrinkage. It defined county-level cities and measured shrinkage using the city shrinkage model, explored the spatiotemporal patterns combined with shrinking degrees and trajectories, and analysed the shrinking types based on city and city periphery perspectives. Then, the influencing factors were identified via the OLS regression model. Taking 2846 county-level cities as research units, the results showed that 180 and 1050 county-level cities shrunk in 2000–2010 and 2010–2020, respectively. Slight and moderate shrinkage dominated, but the proportions of high and severe shrinkage noticeably increased. In terms of shrinking trajectory, recent shrinkage was the main shrinking type. The spatial extent of shrinking county-level cities increased dynamically; the northeast, north, central and northwest regions were core agglomerations, and the east region emerged as an added agglomeration during 2010–2020. Absolute shrinkage became the main shrinking type significantly driven by "city–city" and "off-site urbanization" migration. Urbanization level, economic development, ageing degree, etc., were factors causing shrinkage. This study contributes to advancing understanding among scholars and Chinese policymakers about county-level urban shrinkage in urbanizing China.

Quantifying the nonlinear factors of urban shrinkage: A case study in Heilongjiang Province, China

With urbanization, urban shrinkage has become a more prevalent and severe global problem. Although many studies have explored it, most of them lack precision, and the complex nonlinear causal mechanisms of urban shrinkage are still poorly understood. Therefore, based on the background of the transformation of traditional industrial cities in China, this research selects Heilongjiang Province as a typical case study and quantify the spatial pattern of shrinking cities. Furthermore, from a nonlinear relational perspective, the complex mechanism of urban shrinkage is revealed by using LightGBM. The results show that the area experienced a large-scale comprehensive shrinkage and severe shrinkage in some areas, while also generating scattered population clusters. In addition, the economic and industrial structure are still the most influential factors for population change, and the industrial structure transformation is still the main obstacle for its development. The research results are conducive to elevating the awareness of urban shrinkage in industrial cities and providing some theoretical guidance for sustainable development.

Accurate identification and trajectory simulation of urban shrinkage in resource-based cities

Accurate identification and trajectory simulation of urban shrinkage in resource-based cities

Are shrinking populations stifling urban resilience? Evidence from 111 resource-based cities in China

Improving urban economic resilience is crucial for achieving urban economic growth and sustainable development. However, population shrinkage is not conducive to improving economic resilience. Few studies have examined the impact of population shrinkage in resource-based cities (RBCs) on economic resilience. This study analyzes the effects of population shrinkage on the economic resilience of RBCs to provide insights for enhancing the ability of RBCs to effectively navigate various acute shocks and chronic pressures. We create an evaluation system to assess the economic resilience of RBCs, investigating the economic stability, diversity, innovation, and recovery aspects of 111 RBCs in China. Geo-tree, spatial lag, and mediating effects models are applied to examine the impact of population shrinkage on economic resilience and its spillover effects. The results show that cities with high levels of economic resilience are concentrated in the central and eastern regions of China. Population shrinkage in regression and growth cities has a significant negative effect on economic resilience. Additionally, population shrinkage in recession cities has a positive spillover effect on the economic resilience of surrounding regions. Lastly, the degree of informatization partially mediates the relationship between population shrinkage and economic resilience.

Identifying and quantizing the non-linear correlates of city shrinkage in Japan

City shrinkage is a growing global issue and has raised great attention. Although shrinkage in Japan was mostly contributed to the demographic factors of the aging population and low fertility, a comprehensive understanding of the influence mechanisms of shrinking cities in Japan is still challenging. In this study, we used a random forest (RF) approach to explore the complex features and quantize the non-linear correlates of city shrinkage. Compared to conventional linear regression, RF is more effective in revealing complex relationships. City shrinkage in Japan is manifested in population aging and low birth rate, while other indicators also have a significant impact on the shrinkage. For example, when a city has a total population and a population density below 50,000 people and 1600 people/km2, shrinkage is significantly correlated to the city size. The results revealed the non-linear correlations and the various marginal effects of characteristics on the city shrinkage correlates and indicate the influence of urban scale and local autonomy on shrinkage. The study contributes to improving the understanding of city shrinkage in Japan and further provides insights for urban planners to implement city shrinkage management.

County-Level City Shrinkage in China: Representation, Cause, and Response

Shrinkage in China’s cities has gradually received increasing attention. Specifically, county-level shrinking cities are numerous and widely distributed. City shrinkage even appears throughout Zhejiang Province, which is highly developed and has stable economic growth. County-level shrinking cities resulting from regional competition can still maintain long-term and stable economic growth, but their economic growth lags behind the whole competitive region. We identified five county-level shrinking cities in Zhejiang Province, and characterized the shrinkage phenomenon in Changshan County using census, nighttime lighting (NTL), and Tencent Location Big Data. City shrinkage resulted from the comprehensive effects of declining traditional industries, backward per capita income, highly skilled labor force shortages, and population age structure changes. Given the shrinkage status of Changshan, we proposed countermeasures and suggestions including aspects of industrial development, urban planning, social governance, and care for the elderly.

Assessment of interactions between influencing factors on city shrinkage based on geographical detector: A case study in Kitakyushu, Japan

The phenomenon of urban shrinkage is a growing global issue. Although urban shrinkage in Japan was mostly contributed to the aging population and low fertility, a comprehensive understanding of the influence mechanisms of shrinking cities in Japan is still challenging. Thus, a case study in Kitakyushu, Japan, one of Japan's largest shrinking cities, was conducted for quantitative analysis of the characteristics of urban shrinkage. Moreover, a geographical detector method was applied to reveal the interactive correlation between the influencing factors on urban shrinkage. This study investigated the spatial patterns of urban shrinkage in a complex context and explored the individual and interactive influences of urban demographic and morphological factors. We found that the duration of residents, underage population ratio, and aging population ratio were mostly correlated with population changes. The interactions between urban demographic and morphological factors were manifested as bivariate enhanced or nonlinear enhanced, which informed different types of people may have preferences for the urban morphology in the process of relocation. The findings provide useful information for understanding urban shrinkage at the local scale and help urban planners and policy-makers develop effective sustainable urban planning forms.

Types, Modes and Influencing Factors of Urban Shrinkage: Evidence from the Yellow River Basin, China

Following the appearance of urban shrinkage in Western countries, scholars have taken note of increasing amounts of urban shrinkage with significant regional characteristics in China in recent years. Focusing on the Yellow River Basin, this study comprehensively measured prefecture-level and county-level city shrinkage based on China’s fifth, sixth and seventh national census data. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal patterns, types and modes of urban shrinkage were analyzed, and the factors influencing urban shrinkage were explored using a multiple linear regression model and a sorting model. The study results show that the number of shrinking cities and the shrinking degree significantly increased at the prefecture and county levels in the last 20 years. The identified shrinking cities are concentrated in the upper and middle reaches of the river basin, spatially configured around major cities and along the high-speed railway line. The regional pattern shows a typical “core–periphery” characteristic. Peripheral shrinkage is the main mode in which cities shrink. The strength and speed of economic development and industrial transformation positively affect urban shrinkage; the ageing degree, high-speed railway opening and other factors negatively affect urban shrinkage.

Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Shrinking Cities in China: Evidence from Nighttime Light

Since the 1980s, rapid urbanization in China has been accompanied by city shrinkage. Identifying shrinking cities and clarifying the spatial and temporal patterns are of great significance for formulating policies and realizing smart shrinkage. City shrinkage characterized by population loss is a difficult challenge for urban planning and regional development policy-making. This paper uses 2012–2020 nighttime light (NTL) data to identify the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of shrinking cities in China and excavates the shrinking cities’ trend of agglomeration and dispersion further. The following results are obtained. (1) About 34.9% of prefecture-level cities are shrinking across the country but most severely in northeast and northwest China; (2) the number of shrinking cities fluctuates over time (2015 and 2020 are the peak shrinkage years). Shrinking cities in China show a northeast-to-southwest spatial distribution. (3) From 2012 to 2020, the aggregation degree of shrinkage continuously decreased (Low-Low) and the aggregation degree of growth continuously increased (High-High), indicating that shrinkage in northeast China was slightly alleviated and that the radiative effect of the growth pole was further enhanced. These findings help us better understand the trend of city shrinkage in China. Future work needs to be focused on the potential causes of the shrinkage. Furthermore, long-term trends also need to be investigated.

Urban shrinkage in a developing context: Rethinking China's present and future trends

While many studies have investigated urban shrinkage in Chinese cities, most have used political-administrative boundaries rather than urban entities to examine population change. This results in an inaccurate picture of urban shrinkage and, more importantly, an inadequate understanding of its underlying mechanism. This study utilized land-use data to identify the urban entity boundary of a city, and then employed the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership-Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP-VIIRS) nightlight data as a proxy to estimate urban population change from 2012 to 2019. Next, a conceptual framework was developed from the perspective of migration processes and their transformation to explain current urban shrinkage and to explore future trends. We found that only about 6.3% of the sample cities experienced significant urban population shrinkage from 2012 to 2019, most of which were resource-based cities in the Northeast region. A lack of employment opportunities, stagnant economic growth, and low birth rate were important drivers of urban shrinkage. In contrast, low urbanization levels and the accompanying strong intra-regional rural-to-urban migration process can help prevent urban shrinkage and have contributed to the current low percentage of shrinking cities. However, urban shrinkage may increase in the future based on insights into the transformation of migration processes under the persistent unbalanced regional development and the increasing urbanization level. According to these findings, we suggest that, while urban expansion and related challenges may still be prioritized by Chinese policy makers, it is also necessary to promote the sustainable development of urbanization to deal with and prevent urban shrinkage.

Coordinated Relationship between Compactness and Land-Use Efficiency in Shrinking Cities: A Case Study of Northeast China

Compact development and efficient land use are effective ways to address the development dilemma and boost the vitality of shrinking cities. Moreover, it is critical to investigate the relationship between compactness and land-use efficiency in order to healthily and sustainably develop shrinking cities. This study developed an analytical framework to study the coordinated interaction between urban compactness and land-use efficiency in the context of city shrinkage. Fifteen typical shrinking cities in Northeast China were taken as an example of the phenomenon and the entropy value method and super-slack-based measure model were used to quantitatively measure the compactness and land-use efficiency. Furthermore, the coordinated development level and the coordinated relationship between the two were explored with the help of the coupled coordination degree model as well as the quadrant diagram method. The results of the study show that: (1) The overall level of compactness of 15 shrinking cities in Northeast China was low and the improvement of land-use efficiency was not obvious, while the differences of compactness and land-use efficiency between shrinking cities were significant. (2) The coordination between compactness and land-use efficiency was limited; however, the overall coordination remained intermediate, with significant spatial differences and a tendency to further expand. The problem of lagged development of land-use efficiency in shrinking cities could be characterized as serious. (3) Economic development and population size promote the coordinated development of urban compactness and land-use efficiency, whereas science and technology development, industrial structure, as well as government regulation inhibited the coordinated development of urban compactness and land-use efficiency.

Urban Shrinkage and Socio-Economic Segregation in Medium-Sized Cities: The Case of Schwerin (Germany)

AbstractAlthough past studies have found that processes of urban shrinkage may act as a catalyst for socio-economic segregation, these relationships remain underexplored outside the context of large cities and capitals. Moreover, cities at lower-tiers of the urban hierarchy in post-socialist Europe have been doubly excluded from the critical discourse on the socio-spatial effects of shrinkage. Hence, this article examines how shrinkage affects socio-economic segregation in the medium-sized post-socialist city of Schwerin, employing segregation indices to assess levels of spatial unevenness and location quotients to map intra-urban patterns of vulnerable population groups over time. Results indicate processes of shrinkage may exacerbate socio-economic segregation in medium-sized cities and that the spatial heterogeneity of shrinkage intersects with uneven distributions of affluence and poverty. However, suggesting that legacies of state socialism shape contemporary socio-spatial change, segregation in Schwerin is strongly conditioned by its socialist-era housing estates, which are generally characterised by the highest rates of population decline, vacancy, and vulnerable groups.

A study on the spatial and temporal evolution of urban shrinkage and its influencing factors from a multidimensional perspective: A case study of resource-based cities in China.

With social and economic environment changes occurring in the world and deepening of the urbanization process, China’s urban development exhibits a new phenomenon of growth and shrinkage fluctuations. The resource-based city shrinkage phenomenon is particularly prominent. Research on the commonalities and patterns of similar groups should be enhanced. We constructed an urban shrinkage evaluation index system from the three dimensions of population, economy and space. Accordingly, we explored the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of 175 resource-based cities in China from a multidimensional perspective with the entropy method, shrinkage model and transfer matrix method. The results indicated that most resource-based cities in China occurred in the non-shrinking state, but their development speed gradually decreased or even presented stagflation. The shrinkage measure-related results in the different dimensions revealed that the number of shrinking cities is increasing. The population, economic and comprehensive shrinkage levels were mainly slight and remained stable. The number of cities experiencing moderate and severe shrinkage was relatively small and mostly encompassed short-term shrinkage. Spatial shrinkage demonstrated a clear administrative hierarchy difference. Moreover, the spatial distribution range of shrinking cities in each dimension expanded and exhibited obviously similar characteristics, i.e., shrinking cities were relatively concentrated in Northeast China, while they were more scattered in other regions. Furthermore, the geodetector technique was applied to reveal the influencing factors of resource-based city growth and shrinkage. Based on the results, the change in the secondary industry output value share at the start of the study was the primary factor. The impact of each employment structure indicator from 2014 to 2018 was particularly significant. Comprehensive exploration of the shrinkage characteristics of this particular group of cities and their development behavior from a multidimensional perspective can provide an important reference for the transformation and high-quality development of resource-based cities.

Distinct trajectories of city growth, city shrinkage and development in the Iranian province of Khuzestan

ABSTRACT In Iran, as in other developing countries, the existence of shrinking cities has been observed. In the case of 13 medium-sized cities in Khuzestan province in 1977–2011, demographic growth trends differ widely, but there was no significant overall relationship between urban population growth and employment, activity development or indeed with indicators of social environmental and ecological development in these cities. Demographic growth is principally a result of natural increase and intra-regional rural–urban migration in a geopolitically important but relatively disadvantaged border province that suffers from net outmigration and the devastating effects of the Iran–Iraq War on the distribution of the population, infrastructure and important economic centres, and ports such as Abadan.

Exploring the association between shrinking cities and the loss of external investment: An intercity network analysis

While China's urbanization has been characterized by ‘growth-oriented’ development models, the recent literature has highlighted the emergence of urban shrinkage in China, i.e., cities and regions that endure sustained population losses. For example, some mining towns in Northeast China have been losing both population and economic growth. Extending from Martinez-Fernandez et al.'s (2012) theoretical conjecture that urban shrinkage is a ‘symptom’ of the lack of global/external economic connections, this paper assesses whether the loss of investment precedes urban shrinkage. The empirical study draws upon a unique dataset of investment flows between mainland Chinese cities. The analysis shows that the correlation between investment network centrality and urban population changes is positively significant, and this significance is increased after the lag period of investment network centrality is prolonged. Furthermore, when the value of investment network centrality climbs, their effect on urban population changes is going to be enlarged. The results are highly policy-relevant and will inform future policies regarding urban shrinkage management.

Identifying and Classifying Shrinking Cities Using Long-Term Continuous Night-Time Light Time Series

Shrinking cities—cities suffering from population and economic decline—has become a pressing societal issue of worldwide concern. While night-time light (NTL) data have been applied as an important tool for the identification of shrinking cities, the current methods are constrained and biased by the lack of using long-term continuous NTL time series and the use of unidimensional indices. In this study, we proposed a novel method to identify and classify shrinking cities by long-term continuous NTL time series and population data, and applied the method in northeastern China (NEC) from 1996 to 2020. First, we established a long-term consistent NTL time series by applying a geographically weighted regression model to two distinct NTL datasets. Then, we generated NTL index (NI) and population index (PI) by random forest model and the slope of population data, respectively. Finally, we developed a shrinking city index (SCI), based on NI and PI to identify and classify city shrinkage. The results showed that the shrinkage pattern of NEC in 1996–2009 (stage 1) and 2010–2020 (stage 2) was quite different. From stage 1 to stage 2, the shrinkage situation worsened as the number of shrinking cities increased from 102 to 162, and the proportion of severe shrinkage increased from 9.2% to 30.3%. In stage 2, 85.4% of the cities exhibited population decline, and 15.7% of the cities displayed an NTL decrease, suggesting that the changes in NTL and population were not synchronized. Our proposed method provides a robust and long-term characterization of city shrinkage and is beneficial to provide valuable information for sustainable urban planning and decision-making.

An analysis on urban shrinkage trends of all Japanese cities by detecting relative densely inhabited districts – Changes in urban form of Japanese cities in an era of shrinking population, part 2

AbstractTo analyze the method of urban shrinkage in Japan, a densely inhabited district (DID) has been applied in some previous studies as an index of urban areas or city centers. The problem with this method is that shrinkage in cities where no DID exists cannot be analyzed. Therefore, a relative threshold for urban areas or city centers is required. In this study, we propose a method for detecting a relative densely inhabited district (RDID) improved by information loss minimization. Furthermore, we identified the urban shrinkage or structural changes in Japanese cities using RDIDs and analyzed the changing trends from the years 1995–2015.

Contemporary tools and approaches to urban shrinkage management

The paper deals with the issues of managing urban shrinkage, gives a brief description of the concept of urban shrinkage, notes the peculiarities of shrinkage in cities, as well as the shortcomings of the negative attitude to managed shrinkage from the policy and management system. Management tools of urban shrinkage in the Russian scientific and special literature have not been given due attention so far. The paper presents two approaches to the structuring of such tools, including the author’s one based on the development of the concept and program of managed shrinkage in the urban-type settlement of Nickel, Murmansk region. The necessity to perceive managed urban shrinkage as an investment project with its own payback and positive social effect is emphasized.