A study on the spatial and temporal evolution of urban shrinkage and its influencing factors from a multidimensional perspective: A case study of resource-based cities in China.

Ruili Wang,Xiaoming Ding,Chengxin Wang,Shuai Zhang,Bing Xue

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0258524

Ruili Wang, Xiaoming Ding + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258524

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Abstract

With social and economic environment changes occurring in the world and deepening of the urbanization process, China’s urban development exhibits a new phenomenon of growth and shrinkage fluctuations. The resource-based city shrinkage phenomenon is particularly prominent. Research on the commonalities and patterns of similar groups should be enhanced. We constructed an urban shrinkage evaluation index system from the three dimensions of population, economy and space. Accordingly, we explored the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of 175 resource-based cities in China from a multidimensional perspective with the entropy method, shrinkage model and transfer matrix method. The results indicated that most resource-based cities in China occurred in the non-shrinking state, but their development speed gradually decreased or even presented stagflation. The shrinkage measure-related results in the different dimensions revealed that the number of shrinking cities is increasing. The population, economic and comprehensive shrinkage levels were mainly slight and remained stable. The number of cities experiencing moderate and severe shrinkage was relatively small and mostly encompassed short-term shrinkage. Spatial shrinkage demonstrated a clear administrative hierarchy difference. Moreover, the spatial distribution range of shrinking cities in each dimension expanded and exhibited obviously similar characteristics, i.e., shrinking cities were relatively concentrated in Northeast China, while they were more scattered in other regions. Furthermore, the geodetector technique was applied to reveal the influencing factors of resource-based city growth and shrinkage. Based on the results, the change in the secondary industry output value share at the start of the study was the primary factor. The impact of each employment structure indicator from 2014 to 2018 was particularly significant. Comprehensive exploration of the shrinkage characteristics of this particular group of cities and their development behavior from a multidimensional perspective can provide an important reference for the transformation and high-quality development of resource-based cities.

Highlights

Since the reform and opening up, the economy and cities in China have experienced continued growth and long-term rapid expansion
A sharp increase in spatial dimension shrinkage led to a notable increase in the number of cities experiencing comprehensive shrinkage during the same period, with the percentage rising from 4.00% to 30.29%
In the new era of the overall economic slowdown, China’s resource-based cities, especially resourceexhausted cities, are experiencing or will soon face urban shrinkage represented by population loss and economic recession under the influence of multiple factors

Summary

Introduction

Since the reform and opening up, the economy and cities in China have experienced continued growth and long-term rapid expansion. As a distinct group of problem cities in China, resource-based cities are subject to the inherent rules of resource industries and resource-based city development, and some cities are facing transformation and upgrading [2, 3], with the shrinkage phenomenon prominent. There are differences in the definition, connotation, and motivation of shrinking cities across the academic community at present, resource-based cities in China experiencing population decline or economic recession due to industrial structure upgrading and population age structure changes exhibit mechanisms that are more similar to those pertaining to shrinking cities in certain developed countries [4]. To prevent China’s resource-based cities from experiencing the resource curse, we must comprehensively understand the current situation of urban growth and shrinkage and the influencing mechanism, improve the research system of different types of urban shrinkage, and provide new ideas for the formulation of resource-based city planning policies

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