Ningbo Research Articles

Analysis of dust hazard characteristics in 59 ferrous metal foundry enterprises in Ningbo City

Objective: To analyze the post distribution of dust concentration in ferrous metal foundry enterprises and evaluate the occupational health risks, and provide basis for policies of the formulation of pneumoconiosis prevention and control. Methods: From August to September in 2020, the basic information, dust hazard information and occupational health management information of 59 ferrous metal casting enterprises were investigated, the dust concentration distribution was analyzed, and the risk assessment was carried out by using the quantitative assignment model. The dust concentration is tested by LSD method after logarithmic treatment. The 3 times time weighted average allowable exposure concentration of dust is taken as the peak concentration limit of dust; The time weighted average allowable exposure concentration of dust converted by exposure time is taken as the time weighted average exposure concentration limit of dust, and whether the time weighted average exposure concentration and peak concentration of dust at the same post exceed the limit is taken as the basis for exceeding the limit of dust post concentration to calculate the post exceeding the limit rate. Results: The dust hazards were mainly distributed in the posts of sand treatment, molding, sand falling, sand cleaning and cutting and grinding. Dust exposure time weighted average concentration was 0.44 (0.03, 5.11) mg/m(3), peak exposure concentration was 1.30 (0.18, 10.94) mg/m(3), and the over standard rate of Posts was 38.92% (79/203) . Weighted average exposure concentration of other dust (total dust) in the cutting and grinding post is 1.50 (0.15, 7.40) mg/m(3), peak exposure concentration is 0.90 (0.07, 12.48) mg/m(3), and the post exceedance rate is 4.88% (2/41) . Weighted average exposure concentration of silica dust (exhaling dust) in dust operation posts of investment casting enterprises is 0.43 (0.05, 6.35) mg/m(3), peak exposure concentration is 0.90 (0.12, 8.28) mg/m(3), and the post over standard rate is 35.77% (49/137) ; Weighted average exposure concentration of other dust (total dust) at the cutting and grinding post is 2.00 (11.00, 21.00) mg/m(3), and the post exceedance rate is 2.50% (2/80) . There was no significant difference in the concentration of respirable dust between sand casting and investment casting (P>0.05) . The concentration of respirable dust in sand casting was higher than that in sand treatment, molding and sand cleaning posts (P<0.05) . The concentration of silica dust in investment casting was higher than that in sand treatment and molding posts, and that in sand cleaning posts was higher than that in sand treatment posts (P<0.05) . 98.48% (454/461) of the dust operation posts have an occupational health risk value greater than or equal to 400, and 1.52% (7/461) of the dust operation posts have an occupational health risk value of 200~399. Conclusion: there is a high rate of exceeding the standard in the dust work posts in the ferrous metal foundry enterprises in Ningbo, and the workers have a high occupational health risk of pneumoconiosis or metal and its compound pneumoconiosis. Targeted measures should be taken to reduce the occupational health risk.

Epidemiological study on the incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in adults in Yinzhou district, Ningbo city from 2011-2020

Objective: To describe the distribution and trend of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in adults in the Yinzhou district from 2011 to 2020 and compare the incidence differences in different ages and genders. Methods: Using the retrospective cohort design, we collected all new cases diagnosed with RA between 2011 to 2020 from the Yinzhou Regional Health Information Platform (YRHIP). Poisson distribution was used to estimate RA's incidence density and 95%CI. Results: From 2011 to 2020, 1 280 012 permanent residents in Yinzhou district were included, of which 665 361 were female (51.98%). The total follow-up person-years were 7 198 513.61, and the median follow-up person-year was 5.41 years (P25=3.50, P75=8.32). During the study period, there were 2 350 new cases of RA, of which 1 460 were female (62.13%). The 10-year incidence density of the population was 32.65/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 31.34/100 000 person-years-33.99/100 000 person-years), that of females was 39.17/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 37.19/100 000 person-years-41.24/100 000 person-years), and that of the male was 25.64/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 23.98/100 000 person-years-27.38/100 000 person-years), the gender difference was statistically significant (P<0.001). The incidence risk in all age groups above 30 years old was higher than that in the 18-29 years old group (P<0.001), and the incidence risk increased with age from 18-79 years old while decreased slightly with age ≥80 years old. The lowest incidence density was 15.30/100 000 person-years in 2013 (95%CI:12.62/100 000 person-years-18.38/100 000 person- years), and the highest was 56.70/100 000 person-years in 2016 (95%CI: 51.24/100 000 person- years - 62.58/100 000 person-years), with statistically significant differences among different years (P=0.004). Conclusions: From 2011 to 2020, the incidence density of RA in adults in Yinzhou district first increased, then decreased, and tended to stabilize. There were differences in incidence density in different years, ages, and genders.

The Impacts of ICT Platforms on Public Place Use in China

The integration of ICT (Information and Communications Technology) platforms in everyday places has become a common trend in developing hybrid environments in cities around the globe. In China, the speed of integrating internet-based ICT platforms in urban environments has become a common practice. However, such integration has an impact on the use of public places. This study focuses on four examples of public places in the City of Ningbo, China. The public spaces are divided into four categories: a primary public place; a secondary public place; a public park; and a linear public place in the old town area. The study aims to map and assess three factors of: ICT availability; people's behaviour in selected public places; and their interaction with the ICT platforms. ICT availability is mapped as the main study subject; people's behaviours are mapped to evaluate ICT use in public places; and people's interactions are assessed to evaluate how and why they use such platforms in public places. The findings highlight behavioural changes in public place usage and their impact on people's interaction with such important urban nodes. Lastly, the study concludes with the emerging role of ICT platforms in public places. Applications may differ in other contexts, but the study aims to highlight context-specific matters that may also be relevant to other locales.

Insulin antibody as a biomarker to monitor the development of type 2 diabetes in county hospitals in China

BackgroundThe significance of insulin antibody (IA) detection in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has received scant attention from county hospitals in China. We aimed to introduce exogenous IA positive rate and its relative factors in T2DM treated with insulin in Xiangshan County of Ningbo City, analyzing the immunogenicity of different kinds of insulin.MethodsPatients who were residents from the Danxi community and six towns (Dongchen, Xizhou, Maoyang, Sizhoutou, Juexi, and Qiangtou) in Xiangshan County and diagnosed with T2DM and treated with insulins at Xiangshan Hospital of TCM Medical and Health Group between August 2019 and June 2020 were identified. Those who met the eligibility criteria were included and assigned to the IA-positive or IA-negative group. The immunogenicity of different insulins was compared between the two groups.ResultsAmong 992 patients, 781 were eligible for IA detection, and 40.2% of them were IA positive. Blood IA was closely associated with fasting and 2-h glucose, insulin, and C peptide levels and higher insulin dosage. Patients receiving basal insulin treatment showed significantly lower blood IA than those treated with mixed human insulin, premixed human insulins, rapid-acting analogs, or a combination of basal and rapid-acting analogs.

Research on commuters’ carpooling behavior in the mobile internet context

The real-time sharing of information through mobile internet facilitates and increases demand for carpool commuting. In this study, information asymmetries are transformed into psychological costs to passengers and drivers; then, the psychological and other physical costs are integrated into a generalized travel cost. Logit and Nested logit models are used to analyze commuters' mode choices and to determine the densities of carpooling demand. The success rates of carpools across different demand densities are estimated using cooperative game theory, and carpool trips, driver pick-up distances, passenger wait times, and changes in the modal splits of commutes are calculated. Ningbo City, China is taken as an example for numerical analysis. Based on data from our survey and orders from more than ten OCH platforms, the growth trend of carpooling can be forecast., The results show that, due to mobile internet, the probabilities that drivers and passengers are willing to carpool increases from 19% and 15% to 28% and 20%, respectively. Simultaneously, the average pick-up distance of drivers declines to 2.9 km, and passengers' average wait time to 9 min and 24 s. The actual mode shares of carpooling for drivers and passengers increase to 20% and 17%, respectively. Carpool commuting thus exhibits a significant potential for growth through mobile internet.

How to construct a coordinated ecological network at different levels: A case from Ningbo city, China

Constructing ecological networks (ENs) is an essential means to set up ecological cities and deliver sustainable development. However, there is a pressing need to address the lack of linkage between ENs at different administrative levels. Therefore, this paper takes Ningbo city as the study area and constructs ENs at the city and county levels with different indices and research methods. It explores the linkages between ecological source areas and corridors at various administrative levels, finally forming an EN that links multiple levels. The results of the study show that 19 ecological source areas of approximately 1534.18 km2 and 22 ecological corridors of 455.85 km were identified in the city of Ningbo. Furthermore, 12 ecological source areas, 16 natural ecological corridors, and 10 cultural landscape corridors were identified in Ningbo's Zhenhai District. After the superposition of municipal ecological sources, Zhenhai's ecological source areas increased in the west, north and southeast, adding approximately 12.81 km2. Based on the comprehensive resistance surface, 18 composite ecological corridors were extracted, occupying approximately 74.21 km. After joining different administrative levels, the overall connectivity increased, promoting the circulation of ecosystem services. This study can accurately identify the spaces with critical ecological roles at different administrative levels and provide a reference for designing the whole ecological space and carrying out top-down ecological restoration projects.

Prediction of Hourly Air-Conditioning Energy Consumption in Office Buildings Based on Gaussian Process Regression

Accurate prediction of air-conditioning energy consumption in buildings is of great help in reducing building energy consumption. Nowadays, most research efforts on predictive models are based on large samples, while short-term prediction with one-month or less-than-one-month training sets receives less attention due to data uncertainty and unavailability for application in practice. This paper takes a government office building in Ningbo as a case study. The hourly HVAC system energy consumption is obtained through the Ningbo Building Energy Consumption Monitoring Platform, and the meteorological data are obtained from the meteorological station of Ningbo city. This study utilizes a Gaussian process regression with the help of a 12 × 12 grid search and prediction processing to predict short-term hourly building HVAC system energy consumption by using meteorological variables and short-term building HVAC energy consumption data. The accuracy R2 of the optimal Gaussian process regression model obtained is 0.9917 and 0.9863, and the CV-RMSE is 0.1035 and 0.1278, respectively, for model testing and short-term HVAC system energy consumption prediction. For short-term HVAC system energy consumption, the NMBE is 0.0575, which is more accurate than the standard of ASHRAE, indicating that it can be applied in practical energy predictions.

Clinical outcome of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an 11-year follow-up study

ObjectivesTo clarify non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) prevalence, risk factors and clinical outcome in an exemplary Chinese population, a cohort of company employees was followed up for 11 years.DesignRetrospective cohort...

Research on Influential Factors of Satisfaction for Residents in Unit Communities—Taking Ningbo City as an Example

Community governance is the foundation of social governance and a guarantee for modernizing the national governance system and capacity. Residents’ satisfaction with community governance is an important factor in measuring community governance level. Based on similar related literature and practical research analysis, 18 influencing factors of community governance residents’ satisfaction were extracted from four dimensions. Through the principal component analysis of social science statistical software, 16 key influencing factors were finally selected, and six regression models were analyzed and compared. Further, they clarified the influence of various dimensions on residents’ satisfaction with community governance. Further analysis and research on the model show that community governance service, community education and community interpersonal communication are significantly positively correlated with residents’ satisfaction with community governance. Although participation in community governance as a single influencing factor has no significant effect in this study, it can also positively and significantly affect residents’ satisfaction with community governance under the joint action of community education and community interpersonal communication. Therefore, from the aspects of improving the service level of community governance, enhancing the participation of community governance in multiple ways, giving full attention to the role of community education and shaping the new model of community communication, a more realistic evaluation system of community governance residents’ satisfaction is designed.

The Effect of Built Environment on Older People Leisure-Time Walking and Physical Activity in Different Sex Groups in the City of Ningbo, China

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of built environment (BE) elements on older people’s (OP) leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and leisure-time walking (LTW) level in the city of Ningbo. Older participants numbering 312 were randomly recruited using cross-sectional survey in 2019. International Physical Activity Questionnaire-short version (IPAQ-S) and Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale—abbreviated (NEWS-A)—were used to gather LTPA data and the perceive scores of BE, respectively. Liner regression analysis was performed to investigate the association relationship between the perceived scores of BE and OP’s LTW and LTPA. The study’s results showed that, when not considering different sex groups, OP’s LTW was significantly related with the perceived scores of access to services (AE, p = 0.045), walking/cycling facilities (W/CF, p = 0.007), aesthetics, and land use mix diversity (LUMD, p = 0.04). OP’s LTPA was significantly related with AE (p = 0.04) and aesthetics (p &lt; 0.001). The association relationships of BE with LTW and LTPA varied in different sex groups. Three elements (AE, W/CF, and LUMD) and one element (pedestrian/traffic safety and P/TS) of BE were found be related with older male and older female’s LTW, respectively. One element (aesthetics) and two elements (aesthetics, LUMD) of BE were found be related with older male and older female’s LTPA, respectively. The results indicated that the effects of BE on OP’s LTW and the effects of BE on OP’s LTPA were different. The effect also varied in different sex groups. More studies are needed to confirm the effect of BE on OP’s LTW and LTPA in different sex groups to globally enrich the scientific data base.

Seasonal source analysis of nitrogen and carbon aerosols of PM2.5 in typical cities of Zhejiang, China

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) significantly impacts global air quality and human health due to its smaller particle size and larger specific surface area. Nitrogen and carbon aerosols, as the main components of PM2.5, play key roles in air pollution. This study identified the sources and seasonal variation of nitrogen and carbon aerosols in PM2.5 in typical cities of Zhejiang. The annual average PM2.5 concentrations of Hangzhou (HZ), Ningbo (NB), and Huzhou (HUZ) were 39.8 ± 19.1 μg m−‍3, 40.0 ± 21.5 μg m−3, and 50.1 ± 22.6 μg m−3, respectively, which exceeded the Chinese air quality limit of 35.0 μg m−3. The results showed that the concentrations of nitrogen aerosols (NO3− and NH4+) in water-soluble inorganic ions were higher at 9.6 ± 4.6 μg m−3, 9.0 ± 4.5 μg m−3 and 11.5 ± 5.4 μg m−3 in HZ, NB and HUZ, respectively, especially in winter, accounting for over 60% of the total. The annual average δ15N values of PM2.5 were 6.2 ± 1.9‰, 6.4 ± 2.2‰ and 6.7 ± 1.9‰ in HZ, NB and HZ, respectively; the δ15N values in winter were relatively low. A Bayesian isotopic mixing model was employed to analyse the sources of nitrogen aerosols in winter; the results showed that nitrogen concentration was mainly affected by NH3 and NOX emitted by motor vehicle exhaust, coal combustion, biomass combustion, biogenic soil emissions, animal wastes and ocean evaporation (NB). In addition, the carbon component analysis of PM2.5 showed that the annual average mass concentration of TC accounted for 18.7%, 16.4% and 20.1% of PM2.5 in HZ, HUZ and NB, respectively. The same isotope model was used to analyse the sources of carbon aerosols; the results showed that carbon aerosols were mainly affected by the sources of motor vehicle exhaust, coal combustion, biomass combustion and dust. In the PM2.5 in Zhejiang, the most contributory sources of nitrogenous aerosols and carbon aerosols were motor vehicle exhaust sources.

The Impact of Farmers’ Perception on Their Cultivated Land Quality Protection Behavior: A Case Study of Ningbo, China

Farmers’ protection behavior largely depends on their perceived value of cultivated land quality protection. However, existing research shows that the impact path of these perceived factors on farmers’ cultivated land protection behavior is not clear. Based on the survey data of 288 farmers in Ningbo City, this study empirically analyzed the impact of farmers’ perception on their cultivated land quality protection behavior through structural equation modeling (SEM). The results showed that farmers’ cultivated land quality protection behavior largely depended on perceived value, and they followed the logic paradigm of “perceived tradeoff→perceived value→behavioral intention→behavioral response”. Among them, farmers’ perceived value comes from farmers’ comprehensive tradeoff of benefits and risks in the process of cultivated land quality protection. In other words, improving farmers’ perceived benefits and reducing perceived risks is conducive to improving farmers’ perceived value of cultivated land quality protection. The above findings are helpful to improve farmers’ behavior of farmland land quality protection and provide new ideas and empirical basis for the design and improvement of cultivated land quality protection policies.

Perceived Benefits and Forest Tourists Consumption Intention: Environmental Protection Attitude and Resource Utilization Attitude as Mediators

Establishing a relationship model between environmental protection and resource utilization attitude and consumption intention is the key to promoting the sustainable development of forest tourism. From the standpoint of the Stimulus–Organism–Response (SOR) framework, the purpose of this study is to explore the complex causal relationships between perceived benefits, attitudes toward environmental protection, resource utilization attitudes, and consumption intentions in the context of forest tourism. The research data have been collected using a questionnaire survey of 436 tourists at Siming Mountain in the suburbs of Ningbo city, China. Furthermore, it is analyzed by structural equation modeling. The results indicate a positive correlation between the perceived benefits and tourists’ consumption intention that is mediated by the tourists’ attitude toward resource utilization. Although the independent mediating effect of environmental protection attitude is not supported in this study, both attitudes have played a chain-mediating role between perceived benefit and consumption intention. This study contributes to the existing knowledge by measuring the impact of perceived benefits and environmental attitudes of forest tourists on consumption intentions.

Analysis of incidence characteristics and trend of pneumoconiosis in Ningbo City from 1967 to 2019

Objective: To understand the incidence of pneumoconiosis in Ningbo city from 1967 to 2019, and to analyze the distribution characteristics and change trend of pneumoconiosis. Methods: In February 2021, the data of pneumoconiosis patients in Ningbo city from 1967 to 2019 were sorted out. The data from 1967 to 1987 were from historical case files of Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the data from 1988 to 2005 were from the historical case files of Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the data from 2006 to 2019 were from the pneumoconiosis report card in China Disease Prevention and Control Information System; Followed up and supplement relevant information, including basic information, basic information of employers and information related to pneumoconiosis diagnosis, and comprehensively analyze the composition and development trend, population characteristics and industry characteristics of pneumoconiosis. Results: From 1967 to 2019, a total of 1715 cases of pneumoconiosis were reported in Ningbo City, including 1254 cases of stageⅠpneumoconiosis, 258 cases of stageⅡpneumoconiosis, 172 cases of stage Ⅲpneumoconiosis. 1202 cases of silicosis (70.09%) , 296 cases of asbestosis (17.26%) , 40 cases of welder's pneumoconiosis (2.33%) , 32 cases of graphite pneumoconiosis (1.87%) were reported. There were 1296 male cases (75.57%) and 419 female cases (24.43%) were reported. Silicosis (91.15%, 1102/1209) and welder's pneumoconiosis (100.00%, 40/40) were the most common pneumoconiosis in males, while asbestosis (90.24%, 268/297) and graphite pneumoconiosis (87.50%, 28/32) were the most common pneumoconiosis in females. The average age was (49.71±10.90) years old and the average length of service was (10.98±6.96) years. The top three reported pneumoconiosis cases were construction industry (336 cases, 19.59%) , ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry (317 cases, 18.48%) and non-metallic mineral products industry (315 cases, 18.37%) . The top three reported pneumoconiosis cases were 414 cases (24.14%) in Ninghai County, 294 cases (17.14%) in Yuyao City and 272 cases (15.86%) in Yinzhou District. Conclusion: With the development of industries in Ningbo City, government departments should strengthen supervision and management of enterprises involving silica dust and welding fume to curb the high incidence of pneumoconiosis.

Estimation Method for Road Link Travel Time Considering the Heterogeneity of Driving Styles

To solve the problem of low automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) data integrity and low completion accuracy of incomplete traffic data, which affects the quality and utilization of ANPR data, this paper proposed a model for estimating the travel time of the road link that considers the heterogeneity of the driving styles. The travel time of historical road sections in the road network was extracted from ANPR data. The driving crowd was clustered through density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) based on the time slot, the number of trips, and the travel time. To avoid the excessive data difference between different classes and the distortion of the complement data, the Lagrange interpolation method was adopted to complement the missing road link travel time within each cluster. Taking Ningbo city in China as an example, the travel time completion accuracies of the proposed method and the direct interpolation method were compared. The results show that the interpolation method considering the heterogeneity of driving styles is more sufficient to increase the completion accuracy by 37.4% compared with the direct interpolation manner. The comparison result verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method and can provide more reliable data support for the construction of the transportation system.

Analyzing Ride-Sourcing Market Equilibrium and Its Transitions with Heterogeneous Users

With the justification of a comprehensive matching function approach, this study analyzes the ride-sourcing market with heterogeneous users. A single origin-destination (O-D) ride-sourcing market model is first developed. The model fills the major research gap to extend general user heterogeneity modeling from the transit market to the two-sided ride-sourcing market. Sufficient conditions that guarantee a unique market equilibrium are given. Equilibrium market operation with a profit-maximizing platform is explored. Equilibrium transitions with respect to the changes in different exogenous market variables are investigated. Nonequilibrium modeling to understand the transition path is also analyzed, revealing how the detailed transition evolves. Extensions of the single O-D market model to aggregate and disaggregate markets and incorporation of travel time reliability are briefly discussed. Numerical experiments, which are based on real-world data in the city of Ningbo, China, and cover an aggregate/single O-D base case, sensitivity analysis, equilibrium transitions, and disaggregate market equilibrium, are presented to illustrate the theoretical model. The larger network of Sioux Falls is also tested as a demonstration of the disaggregate market equilibrium. Discussions are made regarding operation and policy implications.

Research on Marine Ecological Carrying Capacity of Ningbo City in China Based on System Dynamics

In order to quantitatively analyze the comprehensive impact of population growth, economic development, and environmental pollution on marine ecology, a system dynamics (SD) model was constructed to evaluate and predict the marine ecological carrying capacity (MECC) of Ningbo city, China. Population, gross domestic product, chemical oxygen demand, and marine economic development were selected as the influencing factors of Ningbo MECC. Using the established SD model, the current situation and development forecast of Ningbo MECC from 2012 to 2023 were simulated and analyzed. A consistency test showed that the difference between the simulated value and historical data was within 5%, and the data were consistent in reflecting the evolution of the actual system with high credibility and effective simulation. The results indicated that the model could objectively reflect the relationship between marine ecology, economic development, and population growth. According to the prediction by the SD model, the MECC index would slightly rise year by year under the current development mode, while it would be still below 1.0 by 2023. By reducing the economic growth rate and increasing the pollutant treatment rate, the goal of improving MECC could be effectively achieved.

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019. Methods: The data of hepatitis A incidence in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019 were collected from the infectious disease surveillance system of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. ArcGIS 10.7 software was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis. SaTScan 9.6 software was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis. SPSS 25.0 software was used for additional analysis. Results: Zhejiang Province has reported 5 465 cases of hepatitis A in 2010-2019 years, with an average annual incidence rate of 1.00/100 000, and periodicity and seasonality are not obvious. The incidence of male was higher than that of female (P=0.023), and the highest incidence rate was 50-59 years old. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a positive spatial correlation between the incidence of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2017, with the weakest correlation in 2010 (Moran's I =0.103, Z=1.769, P=0.049), and the strongest correlation in 2016 (Moran's I=0.328, Z=4.979, P=0.001). Spatiotemporal scanning analysis showed that there was spatial aggregation of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019, with a total of three aggregation areas identified. Among them, the mostly aggregation area was concentrated in Xiangshan county of Ningbo city, which covered 10 counties (cities and districts), including Ninghai county and Yinzhou district, and appeared from January 1 to June 30, 2012. Conclusion: The incidence level of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province shows a stable fluctuation trend from 2010 to 2019, and the seasonal regularity is not obvious. The population group aged 50-59 years old is the key population. There is spatial aggregation in the epidemic situation of hepatitis A. Targeted prevention and control measures of hepatitis A should be done based on the law of spatiotemporal aggregation and local incidence.

Construction of ecological security patterns and ecological restoration zones in the city of Ningbo, China

Construction of ecological security patterns and ecological restoration zones in the city of Ningbo, China

Typhoon Loss Assessment in Rural Housing in Ningbo Based on Township-Level Resolution

The purpose of this paper was to provide a new approach to achieve quantitative and accurate typhoon loss assessment of disaster-bearing bodies at township-level resolution. Based on the policy insurance data of Ningbo city, this paper took rural housing as the target disaster-bearing body and analyzed the aggregated data of disaster losses such as payout amount and insured loss rate of rural housing in Ningbo area under the influence of 25 typhoons during 2014–2019. The intensity data of disaster-causing factors such as the maximum average wind speed in Ningbo area under the influence of 25 typhoons were simulated and generated with the wind field engineering model, and a township-level high-resolution rural housing typhoon loss assessment model was established using a RBF artificial neural network. It was found that the insured loss rate of rural housing under wind damage was higher in the townships of southern Ningbo than in the townships of northern Ningbo, and the townships with larger insured loss rates were concentrated in mountainous or coastal areas that are prone to secondary disasters under the attack of the typhoon’s peripheral spiral wind and rain belt. The RBF neural network can effectively establish a typhoon loss assessment model from the causal factors to the losses of the disaster-bearing bodies, and the RBF neural network has a faster convergence speed and a smaller overall prediction error than the commonly used BP neural network.