Circumstances Of Uncertainty Research Articles

Indicators and standards for measuring intellectual capital of companies in the emerging industry: exemplified by biopharmaceutical companies

Under high uncertainty circumstance, valuating the intangible assets of biotech companies is a vital task. This study explores indicators and standards for measuring the intellectual capital (IC) of a sub-biotech industry, biopharmaceuticals, in Taiwan. The methodology of measurement construction was used to generate innovative indicators and standards for IC measurement. Forty nine items in three IC dimensions, including human capital, structural capital and relational capital, were constructed based on interviews with 20 CEOs or senior managers in biopharmaceutical companies. The measurement was found to be different for companies at different developmental stages and has potential for longitudinal use.

Corruption, Social Welfare, Culture and Religion in European Union 27

Corruption is a complex and generalized phenomenon all over the world, with economical, cultural, social, psychological, political, administrative and religious dimensions. Defining and studying the phenomenon go through the most different thinking filters known in the specialist literature: economic, social-cultural, political, administrative and religious. The aim of this article is to quantify and analyze, in European Union 27 (EU27), the relationship between corruption and economic, cultural and religious determinant factors, through a regressive “pool data” model, for the period 1996–2008. The conclusion is that, in the EU27 case, social welfare, power distance, individualism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance and religious influence significantly influence corruption. Moreover, religion attenuates uncertainty avoidance, more exactly situations such as uncertainty, the unknown, ambiguity or unexpected circumstances.

An Application of Robust Model Predictive Control with Integral Action

Robust Model Predictive Control Theory (RMPC) which is firstly presented by Kothare et al.[ 1 ] is reviewed. In order to use this theory for set-point control of first-order systems with uncertain time delay and gain, the state-space model of the system is extended in order to transform this structural uncertainty to parametric uncertainty. Furthermore, to remove steady-state error, an integral action is added to the controller. The performance of proposed method, i.e., RMPC with Integral Action (RMPC+I) is investigated by simulations and the experimental results are obtained considering several uncertainty circumstances. RMPC+I design technique – proposed in this paper – have good robustness and good steady-state properties in real time application.

Australia and Climate Change Diplomacy: Towards a Post-2012 Regime - Policy Proposals on Australia's Climate Change Diplomacy

A workshop on Australia and Climate Change Diplomacy: Towards a Post-Kyoto Regime (the Workshop) was held at the Faculty of Law, University of New South Wales on 22-23 November 2007. The purpose of the Workshop was to evaluate Australia's past and current climate change diplomacy and to make policy recommendations for the future. The interdisciplinary Workshop brought together 19 leading experts in economics, science, international relations, law, and business. The majority were academics, but the group also included private consultants and NGO representatives from Australia with one visitor from China. The Workshop was organised and hosted by Associate Professor Rosemary Rayfuse (Law) and Associate Professor Shirley Scott (Politics and International Studies) and financial support was provided by the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, and the Faculties of Law and Arts and Social Sciences, UNSW. The Workshop was held, under circumstances of uncertainty, two weeks prior to the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Meeting of Parties to the Kyoto Protocol to be held in Bali, Indonesia, from 3-14 December. This summit will set the stage for a comprehensive agreement that tackles climate change on all fronts following the expiry of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. The Workshop was also held immediately preceding the Australian federal election. Climate change was a significant issue during the election campaign and the incoming Rudd Government has committed itself to ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.

Project investment supporting by real options

Research work of Trigeorgis in 2002 brought to a method which enabled appropriate evaluation of options in the circumstances of uncertainty. This resulted in great increase of research in the field of evaluating financial assets. A possibility of evaluating so-called financial options was interesting not only to academics, but also was accepted in the field of business systems and project management. This is a survey of basic terms and logic for evaluating financial options.

Robust Algorithms for Predictive Control Under Uncertainty Circumstances of the Model for the Controlled Object

Robust Algorithms for Predictive Control Under Uncertainty Circumstances of the Model for the Controlled Object

The Lebanese Blogosphere

Over a decade after the close of the fifteen-year Lebanese Civil War, the cultural and political landscape of sectarianism has shifted significantly in Lebanon. Circumstances of uncertainty and upheaval in the past couple of years—Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri’s assassination in 2005, the subsequent Cedar Revolution that spurred Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory, a string of assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians, the Israel-Hizbullah War of 2006, anti-government protests and Hizbullah’s seizure of sections of Beirut in May 2008—have both fed into and arose from tensions between religious groups. Recent events suggest the centrality of sectarianism to questions about Lebanon’s stability. The momentous political changes that Lebanon has witnessed have raised questions as to the changing nature of sectarianism as well. In particular, given that sectarianism has fed into significant conflict, is it appropriate or productive to maintain sectarianism as the guiding principle for the political system? How have new avenues of discussion influenced Lebanon’s experience of sectarianism? Blogs, collectively referred to as the blogosphere, have provided an increasingly popular means of expression in Lebanon. Blogging has become more prominent through moments of conflict, namely the Cedar Revolution in 2005 and the Israel-Hizbullah conflict in the summer of 2006. As the Lebanese blogosphere virulently debates the unfolding events and the role of sectarianism in Lebanon, blogs offer an illuminating lens as to whether the Lebanese population deems sectarianism to be an appropriate organizing principle for its government.

The EC courts' contribution to refining the parameters of precaution

By virtue of its ambiguity, it has largely been left to the courts to flesh out the scope and application of the precautionary principle. This paper examines the contribution made by EC courts to defining the parameters of precautionary decision making. In so doing, it illustrates that, though the precautionary principle is seen to operate in a number of regulatory contexts, discernible trends in judicial interpretations of precaution and the underlying notion of ‘uncertainty’ can nevertheless be identified. In contrast with early judgments, the courts are beginning to explicitly interpret risk assessment processes as having a pivotal role in determining precautionary intervention. Rather than finding simply that circumstances of uncertainty warrant precautionary measures, the courts have started to require that clear, or ‘concrete’, evidence of harm, deriving from risk assessment, is established before intervention is justified. This paper posits three explanations for this shift: (i) the ‘better regulation’ initiative within Europe; (ii) the Commission's Communication on the Precautionary Principle; and (iii) WTO litigation on precautionary safeguard measures. The judicial move to affiliate precaution with risk assessment processes in decision making can be seen as a reflection of these factors.

South African pension fund conversions: Dealing with environmental change

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse South African pension fund conversions from defined benefit to defined contribution structures and to develop a model for dealing with environmental change. Design/Methodology/Approach: Qualitative research methodology was used. Industry experts were interviewed to obtain a macro view of the phenomenon and specific manifestations of the phenomenon were also considered in case studies.Feedback from semi-structured interviews was categorised into several emergent themes. Within-case and cross-case analyses were conducted. Findings: Results indicated that an environmental shock exerted a substantial influence on the course of events. Under these: Various factors combined to drive organisational evolution (i.e. adaptation to the environment). Adaptation speed was inappropriate and exceeded that which was required for sufficient thought. Uncertainty and vacuum circumstances arose leading to consequences that require redress. The relative power of the stakeholders changed and influenced the strategic outcome. An imbalance in stakeholder interests arose and ethical factors became consequential. Business acted to restore certainty for itself.Implications: This paper provides insight into organisational behaviour during periods of environmental shock. Environmental shock can be defined as "a condition that arises where business or societal rules are inadequate, or do not exist, to deal with unfolding events". An environmental shock has greater magnitude than a competitive shock, and can include several competitive shocks.Originality/Value: Analysis of pension fund conversions revealed organisational behaviour during periods of environmental shock and the emerging model can be applied in other instances of environmental shock, such as broad-based black economic empowerment (B-B BEE), land redistribution, sanctions and constitutional development.

Primer: using decision analysis to improve clinical decision making in urology

Many clinical decisions in urology involve uncertainty about the course of disease or the effectiveness of treatment. Many decisions also involve trade-offs; for example, an improvement in patient survival at the cost of an increased risk of treatment-related adverse effects. Decision analysis is a formal, quantitative method for systematically comparing the benefits and harms of alternative clinical strategies under circumstances of uncertainty. The basic steps in performing a decision analysis are to define the clinical scenario or problem, identify the clinical strategies to be considered in the decision, enumerate all of the important sequelae of each strategy and their associated probabilities, define the outcome of interest, and assign a value to each possible outcome. Health outcomes can be defined in a number of ways, including quality-adjusted survival. A key aspect of decision analysis is allowing the values of particular health outcomes to vary from patient to patient, depending on individual preferences. Decision analysis has already been used to assess a variety of prevention, screening and treatment decisions in urology, and there is much potential for its future application. Greater incorporation of decision-analytic techniques into urology research and clinical practice might improve decision making, and thereby improve patient outcomes.

Total ascitic fluid leukocyte count for reliable exclusion of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in patients with ascites

The diagnosis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) in patients with ascites is established by definition with a polymorphonuclear (PMN) cell count in the ascitic fluid greater than 0.250 g/l determined via cytological (microscopic) examination. In this study, we correlated the automatically assessed total ascitic nucleated cell count with PMN and determined its predictive value for diagnosis of SBP. Six hundred and eleven consecutive paracenteses of 179 patients with ascites of various aetiologies (liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, peritoneal carcinomatosis, and ascites of other aetiology) were studied retrospectively. The most reliable diagnostic cut-off level was determined for differentiation between SBP and non-SBP via receiver operating characteristics analysis. A total ascitic nucleated cell count less than 1.0 g/l is unlikely to represent SBP (negative predictive value, 95.5%). If ascitic fluid samples with machine-made total ascitic nucleated cell count below 1.0 g/l are not followed by additional laboratory tests, the risk of missing the diagnosis of SBP is low. Applying these criteria we would have classified 51 samples of 611 samples (20 of 179 patients) wrongly using the cut-off value of 1 g/l. On the other hand we would have spared cytologic evaluation in about 63% of paracentesis performed in our hospital. Nevertheless, to insure patient safety, standard laboratory analysis is recommended in circumstances of clinical uncertainty. Thus, patients with first manifestation of ascites should always receive cytologic examination and full diagnostic investigation to exclude other causes of ascites.

POSSIBLE RISK COVERAGE IN AGRICULTURE THROUGH AGRICULTURAL INSURANCES

This article describes a variety of management tech niques farm operators use to survive swings in weather, markets, and the economy. As in any indust ry, risk is a part of the business of agriculture. Although farms vary widely with respect to enterprise mix, f inancial situation, and other business and househol d characteristics, many sources of risk are common to all farmers, ranging from price and yield risk to personal injury or poor health. After looking at the agricul tural tools applied in different countries from Eur ope, we underline the importance of the public-private rela tion in sustaining of agricultural insurance. In R omania, the insurer compensates the agricultural producers who concluded insurance contracts for agricultural cult ures and animals damages caused by the a large variety of ri sks. Taking into account that agricultural activity is done under risk and uncertainty circumstances as a resul t of natural factors influence whose unfavorable ev olution can cause significant damages to the agricultural produ cers, insurance is an aspect that every agricultura l producer should consider. Weather whims turned agricultural insurances into a necessity.

Robustness analysis of trusses with separable load and structural uncertainties

This paper discusses evaluation techniques of the robustness function of trusses, which is regarded as one of measures of structural robustness, under the uncertainties of member stiffnesses and external forces. By using quadratic embedding of the uncertainty and the S -procedure, we formulate a quasiconvex optimization problem which provides lower bounds of the robustness functions. A bisection method is proposed, where we solve a finite number of semidefinite programming problems in order to obtain a global optimal solution to the proposed quasiconvex optimization problem. The lower bounds of the robustness functions are computed for various trusses under several uncertainty circumstances.

Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Forensic scientists are routinely faced with the problems of making decisions under circumstances of uncertainty (i.e., to perform or not perform a test). A decision making model in forensic science is proposed, illustrated with an example from the field of forensic genetics. The approach incorporates available evidence and associated uncertainties with the assessment of utilities (or desirability of the consequences). The paper examines a general example for which identification will be made of the decision maker, the possible actions, the uncertain states of nature, the possible source of evidence and the kind of utility assessments required. It is argued that a formal approach can help to clarify the decision process and give a coherent means of combining elements to reach a decision.

Uncertainty and contractual hazard in the film industry: managing adversarial collaboration with dominant suppliers

This paper focuses on the problems that arise when there is a power asymmetry between buyers and suppliers that is further complicated by risk and uncertainty. The case study analyses the film or movie industry supply chain and the power regime within it. The paper shows that relationships and contracts in the industry are structured to reflect the dominance of key players seeking to protect their own interests at the expense of others. It is argued that this problem of supplier self‐interest is reinforced for buyers in circumstances of uncertainty with high levels of pre‐ and post‐contractual risk. Buyers must enter into collaborative relationships with their suppliers to minimize risk and uncertainty, but the suppliers can appropriate a disproportionate share of value if a project is successful with the buyer taking all of the upfront risk.

It is money that matters: decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Clinical decisions must be made, often under circumstances of uncertainty and limited resources. Decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis are methodologic tools that allow for quantitative analysis and the optimization of decision-making. These methods can be useful for decisions regarding individual patient evaluation and treatment options or in formulating healthcare policy. We overview the methodology of expected value decision analysis and of cost-effectiveness analysis, including cost-identification, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit, and cost-utility analyses. Examples are provided of these methods and a user's guide to cost-effectiveness analysis is outlined.

Implicit state-estimation technique for water network monitoring

This paper presents a new implicit formulation of the standard weighted least squares (WLS) state-estimation problem for water networks with very low measurement redundancy. The formulation is based on the loop equations and the state variables are the unknown nodal demands. The minimisation problem is solved using a Lagrangian approach. It is shown that the method can be applied to weak demand indicators, such as property counts, rather than direct demand information which is often unreliable. Furthermore, a new leak detection scheme is derived from the method. This method is investigated under idealised noise-free conditions in order to demonstrate the principles and to gauge the potential of the scheme. The application of the scheme in more realistic circumstances of uncertainty is also discussed.

Unsuspected infection is infrequent in asymptomatic outpatients with refractory ascites undergoing therapeutic paracentesis.

Large-volume paracentesis is a safe and effective means of treating patients with refractory ascites. However, there is limited information regarding the need for ascitic fluid studies in asymptomatic outpatients presenting for therapeutic paracentesis. The aim of this prospective study was to define the incidence and natural history of peritoneal fluid infection in asymptomatic outpatients undergoing therapeutic paracentesis. Over a 13-month period, 118 therapeutic paracenteses were performed in 29 outpatients with decompensated cirrhosis (Child-Pugh class B = 38%, C = 62%). After a brief medical history and physical examination, ascitic fluid cell count with differential and culture were obtained from all participating subjects. Seven (24%) of the subjects were receiving norfloxacin prophylaxis, accounting for antibiotic coverage during 40% of the procedures performed. The clinical course and outcome of study subjects during a mean follow-up of 137 days was reviewed. All 118 (100%) of the ascitic fluid samples demonstrated absolute neutrophil counts of <250/mm3 (mean = 6.5 +/- 22.5 pmn/mm3). Asymptomatic bacterascites was identified from three of the 118 (2.5%) fluid samples, but all of these subjects spontaneously recovered without treatment or sequelae. During follow-up, six episodes of symptomatic or hospital-associated peritoneal fluid infection were identified in study participants, emphasizing the importance of fluid studies in other clinical settings. Although further studies are needed, the routine culture of ascitic fluid in asymptomatic outpatients with refractory ascites requiring therapeutic paracentesis may not be necessary when there is a low index of suspicion for occult infection. In circumstances of clinical uncertainty, however, obtaining ascitic fluid cell counts with differential is recommended to insure patient safety.

Unsuspected infection is infrequent in asymptomatic outpatients with refractory ascites undergoing therapeutic paracentesis

OBJECTIVE: Large-volume paracentesis is a safe and effective means of treating patients with refractory ascites. However, there is limited information regarding the need for ascitic fluid studies in asymptomatic outpatients presenting for therapeutic paracentesis. The aim of this prospective study was to define the incidence and natural history of peritoneal fluid infection in asymptomatic outpatients undergoing therapeutic paracentesis. METHODS: Over a 13-month period, 118 therapeutic paracenteses were performed in 29 outpatients with decompensated cirrhosis (Child-Pugh class B = 38%, C = 62%). After a brief medical history and physical examination, ascitic fluid cell count with differential and culture were obtained from all participating subjects. Seven (24%) of the subjects were receiving norfloxacin prophylaxis, accounting for antibiotic coverage during 40% of the procedures performed. The clinical course and outcome of study subjects during a mean follow-up of 137 days was reviewed. RESULTS: All 118 (100%) of the ascitic fluid samples demonstrated absolute neutrophil counts of <250/mm 3 (mean = 6.5 ± 22.5 pmn/mm 3). Asymptomatic bacterascites was identified from three of the 118 (2.5%) fluid samples, but all of these subjects spontaneously recovered without treatment or sequelae. During follow-up, six episodes of symptomatic or hospital-associated peritoneal fluid infection were identified in study participants, emphasizing the importance of fluid studies in other clinical settings. CONCLUSIONS: Although further studies are needed, the routine culture of ascitic fluid in asymptomatic outpatients with refractory ascites requiring therapeutic paracentesis may not be necessary when there is a low index of suspicion for occult infection. In circumstances of clinical uncertainty, however, obtaining ascitic fluid cell counts with differential is recommended to insure patient safety.

Russia, nuclear leakage, and the non-proliferation regime

Russia inherited from the Soviet Union vast holdings of nuclear weapons and of the fissile materials necessary to build them. These nuclear assets have been in the possession of a Russia in the midst of an extraordinarily difficult and turbulent political, social, and economic transformation. Never before have such enormous inventories of nuclear weapons and fissile materials existed in such circumstances of political instability and uncertainty and economic distress. The economic struggles and financial crisis experienced by Russia since it emerged as an independent state in 1991 have placed enormous stress on its society. The Russian military and the Russian nuclear complex have not been exempt from these pressures. This reality has led to concerns that the Russian state is not in a position to provide adequately for the safety and security of its nuclear assets. If true, this would raise the risk that these assets could leak out of Russia and into the hands of those who wish to acquire nuclear weapons –the so called nuclear leakage problem.