Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Sites Research Articles

Detecting Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Change From Nonlinear Baseflow Recession

AbstractPermafrost underlies about one fifth of the global land area and affects ground stability, freshwater runoff, soil chemistry, and surface‐atmosphere gas exchange. The depth of thawed ground overlying permafrost (active layer thickness) has broadly increased across the Arctic in recent decades, coincident with a period of increased streamflow, especially the lowest flows (baseflow). Mechanistic links between active layer thickness and baseflow have recently been explored using linear reservoir theory, but most watersheds behave as nonlinear reservoirs. We derive theoretical nonlinear relationships between long‐term average saturated soil thickness (proxy for active layer thickness) and long‐term average baseflow. When applied to 38 years of daily streamflow data for the Kuparuk River basin on the North Slope of Alaska, the theory predicts increased cm a−1 between 1983 and 2020 ( cm total). The rate of increase nearly doubled to cm a−1 between 1990 and 2020, during which time local field measurements from Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites indicate the active layer increased cm a−1. The predicted rate of increase more than doubled again between 2002 and 2020, outpacing a near doubling of observed active layer thickening, consistent with trends in terrestrial water storage inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite gravimetry and Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications climate reanalysis. Overall, hydrologic change is accelerating in the Kuparuk River basin, and we provide a theoretical framework for estimating basin‐scale changes in active layer water storage from streamflow measurements.

Active Layer Dynamics Near Norilsk, Taimyr Peninsula, Russia

This paper provides information on active layer thickness (ALT) dynamics, or seasonal thawing above permafrost, from a Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site near the city of Norilsk on the Taimyr Peninsula (north-central Siberia) and the influences of meteorological and landscape properties on these dynamics under a warming climate, from 2005 to 2020. The average ALT in loamy soils at this 1 ha CALM site over the past 16 years was 96 cm, higher than previous studies from 1980s conducted at the same location, which estimated ALT to be 80 cm. Increasing mean annual air temperatures in Norilsk correspond with the average ALT increasing trend of 1 cm/year for the observation period. Active layer development depends on summer thermal and precipitation regimes, time of snowmelt, micro-landscape conditions, the cryogenic structure (ice content) of soils, soil water content leading up to the freezing period, drainage, and other factors. Differences in ALT, within various micro landscape conditions can reach 200% in each of the observation periods.

Using Ground Penetrating Radar for Permafrost Monitoring from 2015–2017 at CALM Sites in the Pechora River Delta

This paper describes the results of ground penetrating radar (GPR) research combined with geocryological data collected from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) testing sites in Kashin and Kumzha in August 2015, 2016, and 2017. The study area was located on the Pechora River delta. Both sites were composed of sandy ground and the permafrost depth at the different sites ranged from 20 cm to 8–9 m. The combination of optimum offset and multifold GPR methods showed promising results in these investigations of sandy permafrost geological profiles. According to direct and indirect observations after the abnormally warm conditions in 2016, the thickness and water content of the active layer in 2017 almost returned to the values in 2015 in the Kashin area. In contrast, the lowering of the permafrost table continued at Kumzha, and lenses of thin frozen rocks that were observed in the thawed layer in August of 2015 and 2017 were absent in 2016. According to recent geocryological and geophysical observations, increasing permafrost degradation might be occurring in the Pechora River delta due to the instability of the thermal state of the permafrost.

Long-term Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program observations in Northern Alaskan tundra

ABSTRACT The Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) network is an ongoing international effort to collect and disseminate standardized measurements of active-layer dynamics to monitor the response of near-surface permafrost parameters to climate change. This work presents a distillation of 25 years (1995–2019) of observations from three north–south transects of CALM sites in tundra environments of Alaska. Transects examined in this work bisect tundra regions of discontinuous permafrost on the Seward Peninsula, and the continuous permafrost zone on the western and eastern sections of the Arctic Foothills and Arctic Coastal Plain. These transects represent regional climatic gradients, several physiographic provinces, and regionally characteristic landcover associations. Total active-layer thickening at observed sites ranged from 7 to 26 cm; more significant thaw occurred in the foothills despite less pronounced warming air temperature trends. This summary highlights several regional active layer responses to climate warming, complicated by distinct thermal landscape sensitivities, landscape variability, and documented thaw subsidence. Data summarized in this report are publicly available and represent an important validation resource for earth-system models that include regions in the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones of northern and western Alaska.

Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate

Surface energy budgets of high-latitude permafrost systems are poorly represented in Earth system models (ESMs), yet permafrost is rapidly degrading and these dynamics are critical to future carbon-climate feedback predictions. A potentially important factor in permafrost degradation neglected so far by ESMs is heat transfer from precipitation, although increases in soil temperature and thaw depth have been observed following increases in precipitation. Using observations and a mechanistic ecosystem model, we show here that increases in precipitation hasten active layer development beyond that caused by surface air warming across the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) under recent and 21st century climate (RCP8.5). Modeled active layer depth (ALD) in simulations that allow precipitation heat transfer agreed very well with observations from 28 Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites (R2 = 0.63; RMSE = 10 cm). Simulations that ignored precipitation heat transfer resulted in lower spatially-averaged soil temperatures and a 39 cm shallower ALD by 2100 across the NSA. The results from our sensitivity analysis show that projected increases in 21st century precipitation deepen the active layer by enhancing precipitation heat transfer and ground thermal conductivity, suggesting that precipitation is as important an environmental control on permafrost degradation as surface air temperature. We conclude that ESMs that do not account for precipitation heat transfer likely underestimate ALD rates of change, and thus likely predict biased ecosystem responses.

Permafrost Degradation within Eastern Chukotka CALM Sites in the 21st Century Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

Permafrost degradation caused by contemporary climate change significantly affects arctic regions. Active layer thickening combined with the thaw subsidence of ice-rich sediments leads to irreversible transformation of permafrost conditions and activation of exogenous processes, such as active layer detachment, thermokarst and thermal erosion. Climatic and permafrost models combined with a field monitoring dataset enable the provision of predicted estimations of the active layer and permafrost characteristics. In this paper, we present the projections of active layer thickness and thaw subsidence values for two Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites of Eastern Chukotka coastal plains. The calculated parameters were used for estimation of permafrost degradation rates in this region for the 21st century under various IPCC climate change scenarios. According to the studies, by the end of the century, the active layer will be 6–13% thicker than current values under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6 climate scenario and 43–87% under RCP 8.5. This process will be accompanied by thaw subsidence with the rates of 0.4–3.7 cm∙a−1. Summarized surface level lowering will have reached up to 5 times more than current active layer thickness. Total permafrost table lowering by the end of the century will be from 150 to 310 cm; however, it will not lead to non-merging permafrost formation.

Thaw depth spatial and temporal variability at the Limnopolar Lake CALM-S site, Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island, Antarctica

A new Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site was established in 2009 at the Limnopolar Lake watershed in Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island, Antarctica, to provide a node in the western Antarctic Peninsula, one of the regions that recorded the highest air temperature increase in the planet during the last decades. The first detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution of the thaw depth at the Limnopolar Lake CALM-S site is presented here, after eight years of monitoring. The average values range between 48 and 29cm, decreasing at a ratio of 16cm/decade. The annual thaw depth observations in the 100×100 m CALM grid are variable (Variability Index of 34 to 51%), although both the Variance Coefficient and the Climate Matrix Analysis Residual point to the internal consistency of the data. Those differences could be explained then by the terrain complexity and node-specific variability due to the ground properties. The interannual variability was about 60% during 2009–2012, increasing to 124% due to the presence of snow in 2013, 2015 and 2016. The snow has been proposed here as one of the most important factors controlling the spatial variability of ground thaw depth, since its values correlate with the snow thickness but also with the ground surface temperature and unconfined compression resistance, as measured in 2010. The topography explains the thaw depth spatial distribution pattern, being related to snowmelt water and its accumulation in low-elevation areas (downslope-flow). Patterned grounds and other surface features correlate well with high thaw depth patterns as well. The edaphic factor (E=0.05842m2/°C·day; R2=0.63) is in agreement with other permafrost environments, since frozen index (F>0.67) and MAAT (<−2°C) denote a continuous permafrost existence in the area. All these characteristics provided the basis for further comparative analyses between others nearby CALM sites.

Applicability of the ecosystem type approach to model permafrost dynamics across the Alaska North Slope

AbstractThawing and freezing of Arctic soils is affected by many factors, with air temperature, vegetation, snow accumulation, and soil physical properties and soil moisture among the most important. We enhance the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model and develop several high spatial resolution scenarios of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to observed and projected climate change. The ground thermal properties of surface vegetation and soil column are upscaled using the Ecosystems of Northern Alaska map and temperature data assimilation from the shallow boreholes across the Alaska North Slope. Soil temperature dynamics are simulated by solving the 1‐D nonlinear heat equation with phase change, while the snow temperature and thickness are simulated by considering the snow accumulation, compaction, and melting processes. The model is verified by comparing with available active layer thickness at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites, permafrost temperature, and snow depth records from existing permafrost observatories in the North Slope region.

Spatial Sampling Design in the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Programme

Prior to development of the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programme, little attention was paid to formal spatial sampling designs for measuring active-layer thickness (ALT). This omission made the accuracy of many data-sets questionable, in part because spatial periodicities caused by landscape features such as ice-wedge polygons and thaw lakes can significantly influence the depth of thaw. Early in the development of CALM's protocols, ALT was sampled in the continuous permafrost zone in northern Alaska and simulated by computer, to determine how ALT could be measured accurately. The simulated and field data-sets were analysed by comparing the means, variances and frequency distributions obtained using four spatial sampling designs (random, systematic, systematic random and systematic stratified unaligned). By a small margin, systematic stratified unaligned sampling provided the most accurate results. Systematic designs can, however, provide adequate estimates of the statistical moments of ALT with significant savings in cost, time and ease of implementation. Based on these results, the CALM programme recommended use of 10 x 10, 100 x 100 or 1000 x 1000 m grids, with sampling intervals of 1, 10 and 100 m, respectively. Most probed CALM sites now employ this strategy, except in terrain with unusual landscape elements or other special constraints. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Active-Layer Monitoring in the Cryolithozone Of West Siberia

The Earth Cryosphere Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, conducts studies in West Siberia within the framework of the Circumpolar Active-Layer Monitoring (CALM) Program. This paper summarizes results from pre-CALM active-layer monitoring that began in the early 1970s using transects and grids. Sites employing CALM protocols were added to the program in the 1990s. Results obtained at the CALM sites and previously established grids and transects facilitate estimation of the main factors involved in active-layer dynamics in different landscapes of the tundra and taiga bioclimatic zones under climate fluctuations. We conclude that: (1) climatic trends are not evident in the tundra zone but are weakly discernible in the taiga zone; (2) active-layer fluctuations appear to follow climatic trends; (3) different landscapes respond in different ways to climate changes; and (4) atmospheric precipitation plays an important role in annual fluctuation of active-layer thickness.