Circulation Regimes Research Articles

Dissolved organic matter and its optical characteristics in the Laptev and East Siberian seas: spatial distribution and interannual variability (2003–2011)

Abstract. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) is the broadest and shallowest continental shelf in the world. It is characterized by both the highest rate of coastal erosion in the world and a large riverine input of terrigenous dissolved organic matter (DOM). DOM plays a significant role in marine aquatic ecosystems. The chromophoric fraction of DOM (CDOM) directly affects the quantity and spectral quality of available light, thereby impacting both primary production and ultraviolet (UV) exposure in aquatic ecosystems. A multiyear study of CDOM absorption, fluorescence, and spectral characteristics was carried out over the vast ESAS in the summer–fall seasons. The paper describes observations accomplished at 286 stations and 1766 in situ high-resolution optical measurements distributed along the nearshore zone. Spatial and interannual CDOM dynamics over the ESAS were investigated, and driving factors were identified. It was shown that the atmospheric circulation regime is the dominant factor controlling CDOM distribution on the ESAS. This paper explores the possibility of using CDOM and its spectral parameters to identify the different biogeochemical regimes in the surveyed area. The analysis of CDOM spectral characteristics showed that the major part of the Laptev and East Siberian seas shelf is influenced by terrigenous DOM carried in riverine discharge. Western and eastern provinces of the ESAS with distinctly different DOM optical properties were also identified; a transition between the two provinces at around 165–170° E, also consistent with hydrological and hydrochemical data, is shown. In the western ESAS, a region of substantial river impact, the content of aromatic carbon within DOM remains almost constant. In the eastern ESAS, a gradual decrease in aromaticity percentage was observed, indicating contribution of Pacific-origin waters, where allochthonous DOM with predominantly aliphatic character and much smaller absorption capacity predominates. In addition, we found a stable tendency towards reduced concentrations of CDOM and dissolved lignin and an increase in spectral slope and slope ratio values eastward from the Lena River delta; the Lena is the main supplier of DOM to the eastern Arctic shelf. The strong positive correlation (r = 0.97) between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and CDOM values in the surface shelf waters influenced by terrigenous discharge indicates that it is feasible to estimate DOC content from CDOM fluorescence assessed in situ using a WETStar fluorometer. This approach is reliable over the salinity range of 3 to 24.5. The fact that there is little difference between predicted and observed parameters indicates that the approach is justified. The direct estimation of DOM optical characteristics in the surface ESAS waters provided by this multiyear study will also be useful for validating and calibrating remote sensing data.

At the southern limits of the Devonian reef zone: Palaeoecology of the Aferdou el Mrakib reef (Givetian, eastern Anti‐Atlas, Morocco)

Devonian reefs of north‐western Gondwana represent the southernmost record of shallow‐water coral reefs in the Palaeozoic. However, few studies have attempted to date palaeoecological reconstructions of these high‐latitude reefal buildups. This study provides the first detailed palaeoecological analysis of Aferdou el Mrakib, an isolated, Givetian coral‐stromatoporoid reef, which developed in a semirestricted basin in the south‐eastern part of the Rheic Ocean. The study documents spatial facies variability and succession of faunal replacements accompanying progressive reef accretion towards the sea surface. The investigations included both autochthonous communities found at the base of the reef and, partially, within the reef core, and allochthonous deposits of reef‐derived skeletal debris that accumulated in the fore‐reef setting. Contrary to some previous suggestions, the study shows that the Aferdou reef shared many characteristics of classical Middle Devonian coral‐stromatoporoid buildups, including the ecological succession, limited role of calcareous algae, and development within the range of the euphotic zone, but likely below the zone of regular water agitation. Critical factors in the facies development and temporal changes in the character of reef building were the palaeobathymetry, dominant sedimentary and circulation regimes, level of wave energy, and, possibly, light availability. Distinctive features of the palaeoecology of Aferdou el Mrakib are the dominance of massive colonies of heliolitid tabulates and a subordinate role of massive stromatoporoids, both explained here primarily as a result of increased water turbidity in the high‐latitude sedimentary basin. The growth of the high‐latitude coral‐stromatoporoid reefs in the south‐eastern Rheic Ocean was favoured by a combination of the exceptionally warm climate and plate tectonic configuration typifying the Devonian. Of critical importance appears the palaeogeographic position of the Rheic, which resulted in the seawater circulation in the ocean being dominated by tropical water masses, with restricted inflow of cold water from the circumpolar oceanic circulation.

Demarcating Circulation Regimes of Synchronously Rotating Terrestrial Planets within the Habitable Zone

Abstract We investigate the atmospheric dynamics of terrestrial planets in synchronous rotation within the habitable zone of low-mass stars using the Community Atmosphere Model. The surface temperature contrast between the day and night hemispheres decreases with an increase in incident stellar flux, which is opposite the trend seen in gas giants. We define three dynamical regimes in terms of the equatorial Rossby deformation radius and the Rhines length. The slow rotation regime has a mean zonal circulation that spans from the day to the night sides, which occurs for planets around stars with effective temperatures of 3300–4500 K (rotation period days), with both the Rossby deformation radius and the Rhines length exceeding the planetary radius. Rapid rotators have a mean zonal circulation that partially spans a hemisphere and with banded cloud formation beneath the substellar point, which occurs for planets orbiting stars with effective temperatures of less than 3000 K (rotation period days), with the Rossby deformation radius less than the planetary radius. In between is the Rhines rotation regime, which retains a thermally direct circulation from the day side to the night side but also features midlatitude turbulence-driven zonal jets. Rhines rotators occur for planets around stars in the range of 3000–3300 K (rotation period ∼5–20 days), where the Rhines length is greater than the planetary radius but the Rossby deformation radius is less than the planetary radius. The dynamical state can be observationally inferred from a comparison of the morphologies of the thermal emission phase curves of synchronously rotating planets.

Variability of the circulation processes in the Lower Volga Region on the background of global climate trends

In this article we consider variability of the character of atmospheric circulation during different periods of climatic variability in the Lower Volga region as part of the Atlantic-Eurasian hemisphere sector. Variability of the circulation regime is analyzed with the involvement of the regional typification of synoptic processes by V. L. Arkhangelsky - E. A. Polyanskaya. It is shown that during the phase of the second wave of global warming compared to the period of stabilization in the South-East of the Russian Plain we actually see the decrease of the polarfront cyclones occurrence frequency, the increase of cyclones frequency on the Arctic front and the intrusion of Arctic anticyclones. The revealed character of synoptic processes changes is reflected in the reconstructions of geopotential fields at the middle level of the troposphere. The climatically meaningful conclusion was also made about the stabilizing role of the atmospheric circulation and the formation of the specific features of the climatic variability that does not have analogues in the period of regular meteorological observations.

The geochemistry of loess: Asian and North American deposits compared

Loess is widely distributed over Asia and North America and constitutes one of the most important surficial deposits that serve as terrestrial records of the Quaternary. The oldest Pleistocene loess in China is likely ∼2.6 Ma, thus spanning much or all of the Pleistocene. In North America, most loess is no older than the penultimate glacial period, with the exception of Alaska, where the record may go back to ∼3.0 Ma. On both continents, loess deposits date primarily to glacial periods, and interglacial or interstadial periods are represented by paleosols. Both glacial and non-glacial sources of silts that comprise the bulk of loess deposits are found on both continents. Although loess has been considered to be representative of the average upper continental crust, there are regionally distinctive compositions of loess in both Asia and North America. Loess deposits in Asia from Yakutia, Tajikistan, and China have compositionally distinct major element compositions, due to varying abundances of silicate minerals, carbonate minerals, and clay minerals. In North America, loess in the Mississippi River valley, the Great Plains, and Alaska are also distinguishable with regard to major element composition that reflects highly diverse source sediments. Trace element geochemistry (Sc-Th-Zr and the rare earth elements) also shows regional diversity of loess bodies, in both Asia and North America. On both continents, most loess bodies show significant contributions from later-cycle, altered sedimentary rocks, as opposed to direct derivation from igneous rocks. Further, some loess bodies have detectable contributions from mafic igneous rocks as well as major contributions from average, upper-crustal, felsic rocks. Intercalated paleosols in loess sections show geochemical compositions that differ significantly from the underlying loess parent materials. Ratios of soluble-to-insoluble elements show depletions in paleosols due to chemical weathering losses of calcite, dolomite, plagioclase, mica, apatite, and smectite. In Asia and North America, the last interglacial paleosol is more weathered than equivalent modern soils, which could be due either to a climate that was warmer and more humid, a longer period of pedogenesis, or both. In Asia, early Pleistocene loess and paleosols are both more weathered than those from the middle and late Pleistocene, forming prior to a mid-Pleistocene aridification of Asia from uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. Understanding the geochemistry of loess and paleosols can tell us much about past atmospheric circulation, past temperature and moisture regimes, and even tectonic processes.

Stratosphere circulation on tidally locked ExoEarths

Stratosphere circulation is important to interpret abundances of photo-chemically produced compounds like ozone that we aim to observe to assess habitability of exoplanets. We thus investigate a tidally locked ExoEarth scenario for TRAPPIST-1b, TRAPPIST-1d, Proxima Centauri~b and GJ 667 C~f with a simplified 3D atmosphere model and for different stratospheric wind breaking assumptions. These planets are representatives for different circulation regimes for orbital periods: $P_{orb}=1-100$~days. The circulation of exoplanets with $P_{orb} \leq $ 25~days can be dominated by the standing tropical Rossby wave in the troposphere and also in the stratosphere: It leads to a strong equatorial eastward wind jet and to 'Anti-Brewer-Dobson'-circulation that confines air masses to the stratospheric equatorial region. Thus, the distribution of photo-chemically produced species and aerosols may be limited to an 'equatorial transport belt'. In contrast, planets with $P_{orb}>25$~days, like GJ~667~C~f, exhibit efficient thermally driven circulation in the stratosphere that allows for a day side-wide distribution of air masses. The influence of the standing tropical Rossby waves on tidally locked ExoEarths with $P_{orb} \leq 25$~days can, however, be circumvented with deep stratospheric wind breaking alone - allowing for equator-to-pole transport like on Earth. For planets with $3 \leq P_{orb} \leq 6$~days, the extratropical Rossby wave acts as an additional safe-guard against the tropical Rossby wave in case of shallow wind breaking. Therefore, TRAPPIST-1d is less prone to have an equatorial transport belt in the stratosphere than Proxima~Centauri~b. Even our Earth model shows an equatorial wind jet, if stratosphere wind breaking is inefficient.

Early-Holocene greening of the Afro-Asian dust belt changed sources of mineral dust in West Asia

Production, transport and deposition of mineral dust have significant impacts on different components of the Earth systems through time and space. In modern times, dust plumes are associated with their source region(s) using satellite and land-based measurements and trajectory analysis of air masses through time. Reconstruction of past changes in the sources of mineral dust as related to changes in climate, however, must rely on the knowledge of the geochemical and mineralogical composition of modern and paleo-dust, and that of their potential source origins. In this contribution, we present a 13,000-yr record of variations in radiogenic Sr–Nd–Hf isotopes and Rare Earth Element (REE) anomalies as well as dust grain size from an ombrotrophic (rain fed) peat core in NW Iran as proxies of past changes in the sources of dust over the interior of West Asia. Our data shows that although the grain size of dust varies in a narrow range through the entire record, the geochemical fingerprint of dust particles deposited during the low-flux, early Holocene period (11,700–6,000 yr BP) is distinctly different from aerosols deposited during high dust flux periods of the Younger Dryas and the mid-late Holocene (6,000–present). Our findings indicate that the composition of mineral dust deposited at the study site changed as a function of prevailing atmospheric circulation regimes and land exposure throughout the last deglacial period and the Holocene. Simulations of atmospheric circulation over the region show the Northern Hemisphere Summer Westerly Jet was displaced poleward across the study area during the early Holocene when Northern Hemisphere insolation was higher due to the Earth's orbital configuration. This shift, coupled with lower dust emissions simulated based on greening of the Afro-Asian Dust Belt during the early Holocene likely led to potential sources in Central Asia dominating dust export to West Asia during this period. In contrast, the dominant western and southwest Asian and Eastern African sources have prevailed during the mid-Holocene to modern times.

A Weather-Type-Based Cross-Time-Scale Diagnostic Framework for Coupled Circulation Models

Abstract This study proposes an integrated diagnostic framework based on atmospheric circulation regime spatial patterns and frequencies of occurrence to facilitate the identification of model systematic errors across multiple time scales. To illustrate the approach, three sets of 32-yr-long simulations are analyzed for northeastern North America and for the March–May season using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s Low Ocean–Atmosphere Resolution (LOAR) and Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) coupled models; the main difference between these two models is the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric model used. Regime-dependent biases are explored in the light of different atmospheric horizontal resolutions and under different nudging approaches. It is found that both models exhibit a fair representation of the observed circulation regime spatial patterns and frequencies of occurrence, although some biases are present independently of the horizontal resolution or the nudging approach and are associated with a misrepresentation of troughs centered north of the Great Lakes and deep coastal troughs. Moreover, the intraseasonal occurrence of certain model regimes is delayed with respect to observations. On the other hand, interexperiment differences in the mean frequencies of occurrence of the simulated weather types, and their variability across multiple time scales, tend to be negligible. This result suggests that low-resolution models could be of potential use to diagnose and predict physical variables via their simulated weather type characteristics.

Experimental study of thermo-hydraulic characteristics of natural circulation loop at water and FC-72 boiling under atmospheric pressure

The results of experimental study of thermo and hydraulic characteristics of flow boiling of water and FC-72 in natural circulation loop under atmospheric pressure are presented. The experimental data have been obtained in the range of wall heat flux densities (6 – 70) kW/m2 for water and (4.6 – 30) kW/m2 for FC-72. These two liquids differ substantially in thermophysical properties so it makes it possible to extend the range of reduced pressures almost for an order of magnitude without changing the technical parameters of experimental setup. An additional information for the analysis of flow pattern influence on onset of instability and unstable circulation mechanism have been obtained as the result. The flow up tube of the loop had inner diameter 9.1 mm and consisted of two section – heated one 98 diameters length (that is 65 % of total tube length) and upper adiabatic section with length 48 diameters. Different circulation regimes were realized in experiments: mixed regimes with single phase and boiling zones in the heated part of the tube and boiling regimes along the full length of the heated section. The experimental data on circulation velocity (flow rate) and wall temperature distributions (including pulsating components of temperature and velocity) are presented in dependence on wall heat flux density and liquid subcooling at the inlet to the heated zone. At water experiments autooscillating regimes of boiling flows were observed within the whole range of inlet liquid subcoolings up to saturation temperature and at all wall heat flux densities from lowest one (10 kW/m2) to somewhat upper limiting value of 64 kW/m2. At higher heat fluxes the two-phase boiling flow was stable not only in saturation inlet liquid temperature but also at low subcoolings. In FC-72 experiments the flow was stable at all realized heat flux densities within the range of inlet liquid subcoolings (2 – 20) °C.

Numerical simulation of velocity and temperature fields in natural circulation loop

Low flow natural circulation regimes are realized in many practical applications and the existence of the reliable engineering and design calculation methods of flows driven exclusively by buoyancy forces is an actual problem. In particular it is important for the analysis of start up regimes of passive safety systems of nuclear power plants. In spite of a long year investigations of natural circulation loops no suitable predicting recommendations for heat transfer and friction for the above regimes have been proposed for engineering practice and correlations for forced flow are commonly used which considerably overpredicts the real flow velocities. The 2D numerical simulation of velocity and temperature fields in circular tubes for laminar flow natural circulation with reference to the laboratory experimental loop has been carried out. The results were compared with the 1D modified model and experimental data obtained on the above loop. The 1D modified model was still based on forced flow correlations, but in these correlations the physical properties variability and the existence of thermal and hydrodynamic entrance regions are taken into account. The comparison of 2D simulation, 1D model calculations and the experimental data showed that even subject to influence of liquid properties variability and entrance regions on heat transfer and friction the use of 1D model with forced flow correlations do not improve the accuracy of calculations. In general, according to 2D numerical simulation the wall shear stresses are mainly affected by the change of wall velocity gradient due to practically continuous velocity profiles deformation along the whole heated zone. The form of velocity profiles and the extent of their deformation in its turn depend upon the wall heat flux density and the hydraulic diameter.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Impact of North Atlantic Teleconnection Patterns on Northern European Sea Level

Northern European sea levels show a non-stationary link to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The location of the centers of the NAO dipole, however, can be affected through the interplay with the East Atlantic (EAP) and the Scandinavian (SCAN) teleconnection patterns. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the binary combination of the NAO with the EAP/SCAN for better understanding the non-stationary drivers inducing sea level variations along the European coasts. By combining altimetry and tide gauges, we find that anomalously high monthly sea levels along the Norwegian (North Sea) coast are predominantly governed by same positive phase NAO+/EAP+ (NAO+/SCAN+) type of atmospheric circulation, while the Newlyn and Brest tide gauges respond markedly to the opposite phase NAO−/EAP+ combination. Despite these regional differences, we find that coherent European sea level changes project onto a pattern resembling NAO+/SCAN+, which is signified by pressure anomalies over Scandinavia and southern Europe forcing winds to trace the continental slope, resulting in a pile-up of water along the European coasts through Ekman transport. We conclude that taking into consideration the interaction between these atmospheric circulation regimes is valuable and may help to understand the time-varying relationship between the NAO and European mean sea level.

Segmentation of Sea Current Fields by Cylindrical Hidden Markov Models: A Composite Likelihood Approach

Summary Motivated by segmentation issues in studies of sea current circulation, we describe a hidden Markov random field for the analysis of spatial cylindrical data, i.e. bivariate spatial series of angles and intensities. The model is based on a mixture of cylindrical densities, whose parameters vary across space according to a latent Markov field. It enables segmentation of the data within a finite number of latent classes that represent the conditional distributions of the data under specific environmental conditions, simultaneously accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and spatial auto-correlation. Further, it parsimoniously accommodates specific features of environmental cylindrical data, such as circular–linear correlation, multimodality and skewness. Because of the numerical intractability of the likelihood function, estimation of the parameters is based on composite likelihood methods and essentially reduces to a computationally efficient expectation–maximization algorithm that iteratively alternates the maximization of a weighted composite likelihood function with weights updating. These methods are tested on simulations and exploited to segment the sea surface of the Gulf of Naples by means of meaningful circulation regimes.

Harmattan, Saharan heat low, and West African monsoon circulation: modulations on the Saharan dust outflow towards the North Atlantic

Abstract. The outflow of dust from the northern African continent towards the North Atlantic is stimulated by the atmospheric circulation over North Africa, which modulates the spatio-temporal distribution of dust source activation and consequently the entrainment of mineral dust into the boundary layer, as well as the transport of dust out of the source regions. The atmospheric circulation over the North African dust source regions, predominantly the Sahara and the Sahel, is characterized by three major circulation regimes: (1) the harmattan (trade winds), (2) the Saharan heat low (SHL), and (3) the West African monsoon circulation. The strength of the individual regimes controls the Saharan dust outflow by affecting the spatio-temporal distribution of dust emission, transport pathways, and deposition fluxes.This study aims at investigating the atmospheric circulation pattern over North Africa with regard to its role favouring dust emission and dust export towards the tropical North Atlantic. The focus of the study is on summer 2013 (June to August), during which the SALTRACE (Saharan Aerosol Long-range TRansport and Aerosol-Cloud interaction Experiment) field campaign also took place. It involves satellite observations by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) flying on board the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite, which are analysed and used to infer a data set of active dust sources. The spatio-temporal distribution of dust source activation frequencies (DSAFs) allows for linking the diurnal cycle of dust source activations to dominant meteorological controls on dust emission. In summer, Saharan dust source activations clearly differ from dust source activations over the Sahel regarding the time of day when dust emission begins. The Sahara is dominated by morning dust source activations predominantly driven by the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet. In contrast, dust source activations in the Sahel are predominantly activated during the second half of the day, when downdrafts associated with deep moist convection are the major atmospheric driver. Complementary to the satellite-based analysis on dust source activations and implications from their diurnal cycle, simulations on atmosphere and dust life cycle were performed using the mesoscale atmosphere–dust model system COSMO-MUSCAT (COSMO: COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling; MUSCAT: MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model). Fields from this simulation were analysed regarding the variability of the harmattan, the Saharan heat low, and the monsoon circulation as well as their impact on the variability of the Saharan dust outflow towards the North Atlantic. This study illustrates the complexity of the interaction among the three major circulation regimes and their modulation of the North African dust outflow. Enhanced westward dust fluxes frequently appear following a phase characterized by a deep SHL. Ultimately, findings from this study contribute to the quantification of the interannual variability of the atmospheric dust burden.

Abrupt regime shifts in the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation over the last deglaciation

AbstractWe analyze modeling results of the North Atlantic atmospheric winter circulation from a transient climate simulation over the last 21,000 years. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the midlatitude jet stream assumes a strong, stable, and zonal disposition so long as the North American ice sheets remain in their continent‐wide Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) configuration. However, when the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) and Cordilleran ice sheet separate (∼14,000 years ago), the jet stream abruptly changes to a tilted circulation regime, similar to modern. The proposed explanation is that the dominant stationary wave source in the North Atlantic sector changes from the LIS to the Cordilleran mountain range during the saddle collapse. As long as the LIS dominates, the circulation retains the zonal LGM state characterized by prevalent stationary wave reflection in the subtropical North Atlantic. When the Cordillera takes over, the circulation acquires its modern disposition with a weak and meridionally tilted jet stream and storm track.

First records of two planktonic Indo-Pacific diatoms: Chaetoceros bacteriastroides and C. pseudosymmetricus in the Adriatic Sea

Summary Unusual occurrence of planktonic diatom species, Chaetoceros bacteriastroides and Chaetoceros pseudosymmetricus , was noticed in three different marine ecosystems of Adriatic Sea: the Krka Estuary and Telascica Bay in the Central Adriatic, and in southern Adriatic offshore. From 2010 to 2015, these two Chaetoceros species were recorded in heterogeneous environmental conditions and in a very low abundances. Both species are regarded as very rare in world oceans, and consequently knowledge of their distribution and ecology is rather poor. Primarily described from tropical waters and showing Indo-Pacific distribution, C . bacteriastroides and C . pseudosymmetricus findings in Adriatic represent the northernmost records in world's oceans and seas. For C. pseudosymmetricus this is also the first occurrence in European seas. Areal expansion and introduction of new phytoplankton species in the Adriatic Sea might be related to different circulation regimes in the Ionian Sea and the concurrent rise in sea temperature in the Mediterranean in the last decade. Recent investigations have shown that entering currents, of either Atlantic/Western Mediterranean or Eastern Mediterranean origin, modify the composition of the plankton community in the Adriatic by bringing different newcomers.

Increased Chances of Drought in Southeastern Periphery of the Tibetan Plateau Induced by Anthropogenic Warming

The southeastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau (SEPTP) was hit by an extraordinarily severe drought in the autumn of 2009. Overall, the SEPTP has been gripped by a sustained drought for six consecutive years. To better understand the physical causes of these types of severe and frequent droughts and thus to improve their prediction and enhance the ability to adapt, many research efforts have been devoted to the disastrous droughts in the SEPTP. Nonetheless, whether the likelihood and strength of the severe droughts in the SEPTP, such as that in the autumn of 2009, have been affected by anthropogenic climate change remains unknown. This study first identifies the atmospheric circulation regime responsible for the SEPTP droughts and then explores how human-induced climate change has affected the severe droughts in the SEPTP. It is found that the drought conditions in the SEPTP have been driven by the Indian–Pacific warm pool (IPWP) sea surface temperature (SST) through strengthening of the local Hadley circulation and anomalously cyclonic motion over the South China Sea. Ensemble simulations of climate models demonstrate a robust increase in the dry and warm meteorological conditions seen during the 2009 SEPTP autumn drought due to anthropogenic global warming. Given that warming is expected to continue into the future, these results suggest that it is likely that drought conditions will become more common in the SEPTP.

Abrupt North Atlantic circulation changes in response to gradual CO2 forcing in a glacial climate state

Glacial climate is marked by abrupt, millennial-scale climate changes known as Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. The most pronounced stadial coolings, Heinrich events, are associated with massive iceberg discharges to the North Atlantic. These events have been linked to variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, the factors that lead to abrupt transitions between strong and weak circulation regimes remain unclear. Here we show that, in a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model, gradual changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations can trigger abrupt climate changes, associated with a regime of bi-stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under intermediate glacial conditions. We find that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations alter the transport of atmospheric moisture across Central America, which modulates the freshwater budget of the North Atlantic and hence deep-water formation. In our simulations, a change in atmospheric CO2 levels of about 15 ppmv—comparable to variations during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles containing Heinrich events—is sufficient to cause transitions between a weak stadial and a strong interstadial circulation mode. Because changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are thought to alter atmospheric CO2 levels, we infer that atmospheric CO2 may serve as a negative feedback to transitions between strong and weak circulation modes.

Change in the circulation regime in the stratified saline Lake Shira (Siberia, Republic of Khakassia)

The in-situ data on the vertical structure and stability of the vertical stratification of saline Lake Shira over the past decade (2007–2015) are analyzed. Simplified mathematical models have shown that strong wind in the autumn of 2014 together with rather thick ice in the winter of 2015 caused a change in the circulation regime of this water reservoir from meromictic (incomplete mixing) to holomictic (compete mixing). Based on the results obtained, a circulation regime for deep saline lakes located in the continental climate zone, in particular, in the arid zones of Southern Siberia (Khakassia, Transbaikal, and Altai) can be predicted under various climate scenarios of the future.

Modelling of the Svalbard fjord Hornsund

Summary The Arctic Ocean is currently in transition towards a new, warmer state. Understanding the regional variability of oceanographic conditions is important, since they have a direct impact on local ecosystems. This work discusses the implementation of a hydrodynamic model for Hornsund, the southernmost fjord of western Svalbard. Despite its location, Hornsund has a stronger Arctic signature than other Svalbard fjords. The model was validated against available data, and the seasonal mean circulation was obtained from numerical simulations. Two main general circulation regimes have been detected in the fjord. The winter circulation represents a typical closed fjord system, while in summer the fresh water discharge from the catchment area generates a surface layer with a net flow out of Hornsund. Also described are the local hydrographic front and its seasonal variability, as well as the heat and salt content in Hornsund. The integration of salt and heat anomalies provides additional information about the salt flux into the innermost basin of the fjord - Brepollen during the summer. Extensive in situ observations have been collected in Hornsund for the last two decades but our hydrodynamic model is the first ever implemented for this area. While at the moment in situ observations better represent the state of this fjord's environment and the location of measurements, a numerical model, despite its flaws, can provide a more comprehensive image of the entire fjord's physical state. In situ observations and numerical simulations should therefore be regarded as complementary tools, with models enabling a better interpretation and understanding of experimental data.