European Circulation Research Articles

Vulnerability of European intermittent renewable energy supply to climate change and climate variability

The impact of both climate change and climate variability on the supply of intermittent renewable energy sources (I-RES) in Europe are assessed based on global climate model simulations. The main driver of climate variability over Europe is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter and its equivalent in summer (sNAO) which determine to a large extent the atmospheric circulation in Europe. Four climate scenarios are constructed distinguished by a moderate and strong increase of the average global surface temperature, and a positive and negative phase of the atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic and Europe. This spans a framework which combines the effects of both climate change and climate variability. Using a 2050 distribution of PV panels and wind turbines, we found that although climate change is likely to have significant impact on future I-RES output in Europe, its effects, especially for wind power, are outweighed by the high and strongly variable impact of the NAO/sNAO phases. Variability in the large-scale atmospheric circulation is able to induce median I-RES yield differences of 20–30% for high wind potential regions. Due to the NAO variability also months were identified with persistent calm conditions over Europe linked to the inflow of frigid arctic air resulting in some regions in a decrease in wind power of up to 75%a accompanied with an increase in heating degree days of up to 30%. The results of the study imply that if requirements for the power system including back up capacity take into account the weather variability, the power system can also cope with the climate change impacts.

Interannual Variability of Surface and Integrated Water Vapor and Atmospheric Circulation in Europe

The variability of time series of the integrated water vapor of the atmosphere and the surface partial pressure of water vapor for the territory of Europe over a long period have been studied. The main contribution to the variance of both integrated and surface water vapor is made by seasonal variations of 60–70%; mesoscale processes, 7–17%; and synoptic processes, 17–27%. The linear trend contributes less than 1% to the overall variance of the variability of the atmospheric water vapor in Europe. It has been shown that the interannual variability of the atmospheric water vapor manifests itself both in quasi-periodic variations in the annual average values and in variations in the intensity of synoptic processes. The irregular coherence of variations in the circulation indices and surface partial water vapor pressure in Europe with periods of 2–3, 5–6, 8–11, and 10–13 years has been established.

DAILY MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURE IN POLAND IN THE YEARS 1951–2005

In this study grid data of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the territory of Poland for the years 1951–2005 have been used as a basis for an analysis of the spatial distribution of daily maximum and minimum air temperature, the frequency of characteristic days and the variability of these parameters in the period analysed. The results obtained were then compared to the variability in atmospheric circulation in Europe, described by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

Geographic variations of the bird-borne structural risk of West Nile virus circulation in Europe.

The structural risk of West Nile Disease results from the usual functioning of the socio-ecological system, which may favour the introduction of the pathogen, its circulation and the occurrence of disease cases. Its geographic variations result from the local interactions between three components: (i) reservoir hosts, (ii) vectors, both characterized by their diversity, abundance and competence, (iii) and the socio-economic context that impacts the exposure of human to infectious bites. We developed a model of bird-borne structural risk of West Nile Virus (WNV) circulation in Europe, and analysed the association between the geographic variations of this risk and the occurrence of WND human cases between 2002 and 2014. A meta-analysis of WNV serosurveys conducted in wild bird populations was performed to elaborate a model of WNV seropositivity in European bird species, considered a proxy for bird exposure to WNV. Several eco-ethological traits of bird species were linked to seropositivity and the statistical model adequately fitted species-specific seropositivity data (area under the ROC curve: 0.85). Combined with species distribution maps, this model allowed deriving geographic variations of the bird-borne structural risk of WNV circulation. The association between this risk, and the occurrence of WND human cases across the European Union was assessed. Geographic risk variations of bird-borne structural risk allowed predicting WND case occurrence in administrative districts of the EU with a sensitivity of 86% (95% CI: 0.79–0.92), and a specificity of 68% (95% CI: 0.66–0.71). Disentangling structural and conjectural health risks is important for public health managers as risk mitigation procedures differ according to risk type. The results obtained show promise for the prevention of WND in Europe. Combined with analyses of vector-borne structural risk, they should allow designing efficient and targeted prevention measures.

West Nile virus in overwintering mosquitoes, central Europe

BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is currently the most important mosquito-borne pathogen spreading in Europe. Data on overwintering of WNV in mosquitoes are crucial for understanding WNV circulation in Europe; nonetheless, such data were not available so far.ResultsA total of 28,287 hibernating mosquitoes [27,872 Culex pipiens, 73 Anopheles maculipennis (sensulato), and 342 Culiseta annulata], caught in February or March between 2011 and 2017 in a WNV-endemic region of South Moravia, Czech Republic, were screened for the presence of WNV RNA. No WNV positive pools were found from 2011 to 2016, while lineage 2 WNV RNA was detected in three pools of Culex pipens mosquitoes collected in 2017 at two study sites.ConclusionsTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first record of WNV RNA in overwintering mosquitoes in Europe. The data support the hypothesis of WNV persistence in mosquitoes throughout the winter season in Europe.

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe

Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Switching card transactions in Europe: An interview with Ernst Verbeek

According to the European Central Bank, more than 780 million payment cards were in circulation in Europe by the end of 2015; in turn, these cards had been used to process more than 52 billion transactions. Card switching is the domain that sits between the issuer and the acquirer when a transaction is processed, and that domain is often overlooked. The switching domain is under constant change: acquirers and, to a lesser extent, issuers are starting to support all card brands as long as there is a customer demand for them. Further, regulation is impacting switching. To talk about a European payments market is a misnomer as a single market does not exist in the way that it does for other industries. Market actors still have a very country-centric orientation, although it cannot be denied that this is changing, even if the talk of change far outweighs the change actually happening. It is safe to say, however, that the market, helped along by new regulation, is in a state of constant change. In this interview, Ernst Verbeek, CEO of Trionis, discusses the specifics of the payment card switching industry and the constant change impacting this domain.

Elite circulation and the convertibility of knowledge: comparing different types and forms of knowledge and degrees of elite circulation in Europe

According to classical elite theory, increased circulation is related to increased integration which is thought to increase elites’ power. Based on a comparative analysis of some European countries’ elite education systems, recruitment to elite positions and degrees of circulation – with a specific focus on administrative elites – this article investigates how certain types of knowledge may reinforce elite circulation and integration. The role knowledge plays in facilitating elite circulation is one element, among others, which may be significant in understanding the nature of power held by elites in various societies. 135 interviews with top bureaucrats, students preparing for administrative careers and teachers in the public administration in France, Norway and Britain constitute the empirical basis for this investigation. With an analytical approach focusing on knowledge content and forms of institutionalisation, I examine the competences that legitimise these three countries’ administrative elite positions, and their possibilities for circulating across areas and sectors. The comparative analysis shows how extensive, formalised general knowledge, like the one favoured in France, may facilitate elite circulation more than the more specialised knowledge in Norway and the more informal knowledge favoured in Britain by the training and recruitment systems there.

À La Recherche De L’Espace Perdu: Architecture, Urban Fabric, and French Travelers to Antioch (1784–1914)

Ottoman Antioch, a marginalized outpost by the late 18th century, attracted French travelers thanks to its illustrious Roman, Early Christian, and crusader histories. To make sense of the city, these travelers relied either on previous travelogues or on their own observations of the built environment. This article sheds light on the inter-textual relationship among travelogues, and on how both the built environment of Ottoman Antioch and representations of the pre-Islamic city and its monuments shaped the travelers’ narratives. The dramatic contrast between the insignificance of Ottoman Antioch and the grandeur of the pre-Islamic city prompted the travelers to reflect on the glories of Greco-Roman antiquity and the ‘decadence of the Oriental civilizations’. I focus on four French travelers who visited Antioch between 1780 and 1914, and argue that they turned the state of the city’s architecture and urban fabric into a critical tool to imagine their historical connections to the region, reproduce the Orientalist stereotypes in circulation in Europe at the time, and, thereby setting the tone for the colonization of the region.

Petr Vorel, From the Czech Tolar to a Worldwide Dollar: The Birth of the Dollar and Its Journey of Monetary Circulation in Europe and the World from the 16th to the 20th Century

Petr Vorel, <i>From the Czech Tolar to a Worldwide Dollar: The Birth of the Dollar and Its Journey of Monetary Circulation in Europe and the World from the 16th to the 20th Century</i>

Long-term air temperature variation in the Karkonosze mountains according to atmospheric circulation

The results of meteorological measurements carried out continuously on Mt Śniezka in Karkonosze mountains since 1880 well document the warming observed on a global scale. Data analysis indicates warming expressed by an increase in the mean annual air temperature of 0.8 °C/100 years. A much higher temperature increase was recorded in the last two decades at the turn of the twenty-first century. Mean decade air temperatures increased from −0.1 to 1.5 °C. It has been shown that there are relationships between air temperature at Mt Śniezka and global mechanisms of atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Thermal conditions of the Karkonosze (Mt Śniezka) accurately reflect global climate trends and impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, macrotypes of atmospheric circulation in Europe (GWL) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The increase in air temperature during the 1989–2012 solar magnetic cycle may reveal a synergy effect to which astrophysical effects and atmospheric and oceanic circulation effects contribute, modified by constantly increasing anthropogenic factors.

The challenge of West Nile virus in Europe: knowledge gaps and research priorities.

West Nile virus (WNV) is continuously spreading across Europe, and other continents, i.e. North and South America and many other regions of the world. Despite the overall sporadic nature of outbreaks with cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) in Europe, the spillover events have increased and the virus has been introduced into new areas. The high genetic diversity of the virus, with remarkable phenotypic variation, and its endemic circulation in several countries, require an intensification of the integrated and multidisciplinary research efforts built under the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union (FP7). It is important to better clarify several aspects of WNV circulation in Europe, including its ecology, genomic diversity, pathogenicity, transmissibility, diagnosis and control options, under different environmental and socio-economic scenarios. Identifying WNV endemic as well as infection-free areas is becoming a need for the development of human vaccines and therapeutics and the application of blood and organs safety regulations. This review, produced as a joint initiative among European experts and based on analysis of 118 scientific papers published between 2004 and 2014, provides the state of knowledge on WNV and highlights the existing knowledge and research gaps that need to be addressed with high priority in Europe and neighbouring countries.

Predictability of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Storm Downstream of the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Helene (2006)

AbstractThe extratropical transition (ET) of a tropical cyclone is known as a source of forecast uncertainty that can propagate far downstream. The present study focuses on the predictability of a Mediterranean tropical-like storm (Medicane) on 26 September 2006 downstream of the ET of Hurricane Helene from 22 to 25 September. While the development of the Medicane was missed in the deterministic forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) initialized before and during ET, it was contained in the ECMWF ensemble forecasts in more than 10% of the 50 members up to 108-h lead time. The 200 ensemble members initialized at 0000 UTC from 20 to 23 September were clustered into two nearly equiprobable scenarios after the synoptic situation over the Mediterranean. In the first and verifying scenario, Helene was steered northeastward by an upstream trough during ET and contributed to the building of a downstream ridge. A trough elongated farther downstream toward Italy and enabled the development of the Medicane in 9 of 102 members. In the second and nonverifying scenario, Helene turned southeastward during ET and the downstream ridge building was reduced. A large-scale low over the British Isles dominated the circulation in Europe and only 1 of 98 members forecasted the Medicane. The two scenarios resulted from a different phasing between Helene and the upstream trough. Sensitivity experiments performed with the Méso-NH model further revealed that initial perturbations targeted on Helene and the upstream trough were sufficient in forecasting the warm-core Medicane at 84- and 108-h lead time.

Exzerpte als Rezeptionszeugnisse: Isidors ,Etymologiae' in Handschriften aus dem Kloster St. Emmeram

The Etymologiae by Isidore of Sevilla are one of the most intensively used encyclopaedias in European history; they were consulted, copied and finally printed between the seventh and fifteenth century. So far, their reception has been studied mainly with regard to the circulation in Europe, but also their use as a source has often been commented on. Only in a few cases, however, have excerpts and fragments been examined, although they can provide important insights into the reception of the work. Because of the almost unfathomable number of such textual witnesses, the study must be focussed on a clearly defined group of users. This article discusses the reception of Isidore in the Benedictine convent of Saint Emmeram in Regensburg, whose library is today a fonds on the Bayerische Staatsbibliothek at Munich. Three particular manuscripts are presented (Clm 14515, Clm 14584 and Clm 14477) which show how useful information were extracted from the work and made readily available for the classroom.

Daily Minimum and Maximum Air Temperature in Poland in the Years 1951–2005

Abstract In this study grid data of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the territory of Poland for the years 1951-2005 have been used as a basis for an analysis of the spatial distribution of daily maximum and minimum air temperature, the frequency of characteristic days and the variability of these parameters in the period analysed. The results obtained were then compared to the variability in atmospheric circulation in Europe, described by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

On the relationship between diurnal temperature range and surface solar radiation in Europe

The surface solar radiation (SSR) is an important factor influencing the local and global energy budget. However, information on the spatial and temporal variation of SSR is limited. A more commonly available measure, which may provide such information, is the diurnal temperature range (DTR). In this study we analyze the relationship between DTR and SSR in Europe between 1970 and 2005 on seasonal and decadal scale. When comparing the mean anomalies time series composed of 31 pairs of sites with long‐term SSR and DTR measurements, we found a correlation coefficient of 0.87 in the annual mean and between 0.61 and 0.92 in the seasonal mean anomalies. When investigating the individual pairs of SSR and DTR individually, we found that local correlations are mostly lower than the European mean and that they decrease rapidly in seasons and latitudes with low incident angles and at high alpine altitude. The highest correlation on local and seasonal scales seems to be connected with the variability of the large‐scale circulation in Europe. The output of 11 simulations of current generation regional climate models over Europe confirms the strong relationship between SSR and DTR. The seasonal dependence of the relationship is well reproduced, but the absolute values of DTR and SSR are mostly too low. The pattern of decrease (dimming) and increase (brightening) in SSR and DTR was not reproduced in the modeled time series. There is still strong evidence from both models and observations that DTR is a reliable representative of SSR.

Multinational Impact of the 1968 Hong Kong Influenza Pandemic: Evidence for a Smoldering Pandemic

The first pandemic season of A/H3N2 influenza virus (1968/1969) resulted in significant mortality in the United States, but it was the second pandemic season of A/H3N2 influenza virus (1969/1970) that caused the majority of deaths in England. We further explored the global pattern of mortality caused by the pandemic during this period. We estimated the influenza-related excess mortality in 6 countries (United States, Canada, England and Wales, France, Japan, and Australia) using national vital statistics by age for 1967-1978. Geographical and temporal pandemic patterns in mortality were compared with the genetic drift of the influenza viruses by analyzing hemagglutinin and neuraminidase sequences from GenBank. In North America, the majority of influenza-related deaths in 1968/1969 and 1969/1970 occurred during the first pandemic season (United States, 70%; Canada, 54%). Conversely, in Europe and Asia, the pattern was reversed: 70% of deaths occurred during the second pandemic season. The second pandemic season coincided with a drift in the neuraminidase antigen. We found a consistent pattern of mortality being delayed until the second pandemic season of A/H3N2 circulation in Europe and Asia. We hypothesize that this phenomenon may be explained by higher preexisting neuraminidase immunity (from the A/H2N2 era) in Europe and Asia than in North America, combined with a subsequent drift in the neuraminidase antigen during 1969/1970.

Hypothermia for cardiac surgery with cessation of circulation--start of open heart surgery in Germany

The first surface hypothermia with cessation of the circulation in Europe has been performed in Duesseldorf on February 9, 1955 for the direct suture of an atrial septal defect. Risks and insufficient basic knowledge are mentioned and the procedure is described with a protocol of anesthesia, cooling in ice water and rewarming in a water mattress. Eighth weeks later, the first series of 7 patients with closure of an atrial septal defect were presented at the congress of the German Society of Surgery. One patient died on the 13th postoperative day due to a cerebral thrombosis, unrelated to hypothermia. After 4 years a pump oxygenator became available and hypothermia was reduced to about half of the open heart procedures for 5 years and decreased further. Until 1978 with more than 1800 hypothermias for open heart surgery and some aneurysms of the aorta and cerebral arteries without the aid of a pump oxygenator the largest series in the world could be attained. As most important success was regarded that in none of our patients with cessation of circulation, which was repeated up to three times, a lasting cerebral damage occurred.

Ramchandra's Treatise through `The Haze of the Golden Sunset': An Aborted Pedagogy

In 1850, Yesudas Ramchandra published a work entitled A Treatise on the Problems of Maxima and Minima. The inspiration behind the work lay in the nineteenth-century understanding that the Indian tradition of mathematics was essentially algebraic. As part of the task of `revitalization' undertaken by the avant-garde of the Indian intelligentsia, Ramchandra sought to introduce the Indian people to the latest developments in calculus, in their `native' idiom. In the paper, we discuss the conditions under which the work emerged, as well as the cultural grounding of this mathematical pedagogy. Even though the work evinced the interest of leading mathematicians such as Augustus De Morgan, who campaigned for its publication in England and circulation in Europe, the book did not find a niche for itself in Indian school/college curricula. On this count, we raise some conjectures and questions. We argue that, in the post-1857 period, the theories of knowledge that held that it was possible to graft modern scientific learning on to a Sanskritic base could not overcome the Macaulayan education programme. The spirit of Ramchandra's Treatise was quite at odds with the imperial education policy, though it would have been in tune with the early Orientalist educational programme.