Cigarette Tax Research Articles

Early life exposure to cigarette smoking and adult and old-age male mortality: Evidence from linked US full-count census and mortality data.

Smoking is a leading cause of premature death across contemporary developed nations, but few longitudinal individual-level studies have examined the long-term health consequences of exposure to smoking. We examine the effect of fetal and infant exposure to exogenous variation in smoking, brought about by state-level cigarette taxation, on adulthood and old-age mortality (ages 55-73) among cohorts of boys born in the United States during the 1920s and 1930s. We use state-of-the-art methods of record linkage to match 1930 and 1940 US full-count census records to death records, identifying early life exposure to the implementation of state-level cigarette taxes through contemporary sources. We examine a population of 2.4 million boys, estimating age at death by means of OLS regression, with post-stratification weights to account for linking selectivity. Fetal or infant exposure to the implementation of state cigarette taxation delayed mortality by about two months. Analyses further indicate heterogenous effects that are consistent with theoretical expectations; the largest benefits are enjoyed by individuals with parents who would have been affected most by the tax implementation. Despite living in an era of continuously increasing cigarette consumption, cohorts exposed to a reduction in cigarette smoking during early life enjoyed a later age at death. While it is not possible to comprehensively assess the treatment effect on the treated, the magnitude of the effect should not be underestimated, as it is larger than the difference between having parents belonging to the highest and lowest socioeconomic groups. The study provides the first estimates of long-run health effects from early life exposure to cigarette smoking.

Tax incidence for menthol cigarettes by race: Evidence from Nielsen Homescan data

We use Nielsen Homescan data to examine whether the incidence of cigarette taxes on menthol products varies with race. We find that taxes are shifted at significantly lower rates to Black smokers of menthol cigarettes than any other smokers. One possible explanation is that the industry targets price promotions to Black menthol smokers because they tend to be more responsive to cigarette prices relative to other smokers. We find evidence that Black smokers receive significantly more price discounts for menthol products than white menthol smokers. Our findings indicate that increasing cigarette taxes would effectively reduce menthol smoking among Black Americans because tax pass-through rate for Black menthol smokers is still substantially above zero.

Real-world, anti-tobacco environmental impact upon price-induced smoking reduction among urban Chinese men: Evidence from China's 2015 cigarette tax increase.

Raising the price of cigarettes via taxation has been promoted by the World Health Organization as an important tobacco control strategy. Price elasticity of cigarettes is not uniform and is dependent upon individual and environmental determinants. Many studies have examined the determinants of price-induced smoking, taking into account sociodemographic characteristics and consumption patterns. Little research has been conducted on the association between anti-smoking environments and price-induced smoking behavior. This study addresses the deficit within the Chinese context. Participants were 2852 male smokers identified through a multi-stage survey sampling process encompassing 6 cities in China between July and December 2016. A standardized questionnaire tapped price-induced smoking reduction and related information. Both unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression methods were applied in the analyses. In all, 25.5% (95% CI: 22.5-27.9) of smokers in this study decreased their smoking expenditures following the 2015 excise tax increase. The adjusted logistic regression analysis showed that increased exposures to an anti-smoking information environment (AOR=1.39; 95% CI: 1.10-1.79), restricted smoking in their home (AOR=1.67; 95% CI: 1.32-2.08) and workplace (AOR=1.43; 95% CI: 1.09-1.85) were more likely to report diminished cigarette smoking following the tax increases. This study adds to understanding price-induced smoking behavior among urban male Chinese smokers. Strengthening of excise tax policies needs to intensify environmental smoking restrictions and public education campaigns to increase the sensitivity of cigarette price changes among smokers.

Cigarette tax pass-through in Vietnam: evidence from retailers’ data

PurposeThis study aims to estimate the pass-through rate of the increases in the excise tax and TCF tax on tobacco in Vietnam. This study seeks to shed light on how the tax burden is split between consumers and producers and inform policy discussions in the country. Using panel micro-level data collected from three waves of a nationwide retailer's survey, this study provides an evidence-based pass-through estimation for tobacco tax in Vietnam and contributes to the understanding of tax policy on smoking and smoking-related issues.Design/methodology/approachFollowing increases in the excise tax and TCF tax on tobacco in 2019, the differential effect of the tax hike on the “treatment group” (domestic cigarettes) versus the “control group” (illicit cigarettes) using a difference-in-difference (DID) analysis has been studied. The study utilized unique longitudinal retailers’ data on cigarettes prices in Vietnam from 2018 to 2019 to estimate the tax pass-through rate for some of the most popular factory-made cigarette brands.FindingsThis study found evidence of an over-shifting of cigarette taxes on smokers. Specifically, it discovered that the tax increase is absorbed more by low-priced brand smokers compared to premium brand users due to (1) the limited increase in prices under a pure ad valorem system and (2) the way the Vietnamese currency is denominated. Additionally, there is evidence of cushioning to mitigate price shock on consumers as the real prices increase gradually over the period of one year after the tax change.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to collect and analyze a unique panel micro-level data from three waves of a nationwide retailers’ survey, which captures the changes in marketing and pricing strategies of the tobacco industry in Vietnam before and after an increase in excise tax in 2019. The results of this study could be used as a reference for future policymakers in considering increasing taxes on tobacco.

How cigarette excise tax pass-through to prices responds to the uptake and evolution of e-cigarettes (ECs)

BackgroundHow excise taxes are passed through to prices determines whether tax policies will be effective in changing smoking behaviours. Though previous literature has documented that cigarette taxes are overly shifted...

Effect of e-cigarette taxes on e-cigarette and cigarette retail prices and sales, USA, 2014–2019

ObjectiveTo use a standardised e-cigarette tax measure to examine the impact of e-cigarette taxes on the price and sales of e-cigarettes and cigarettes in the USA.DesignWe used State Line versions...

The Long-Term Impacts of Cigarette Taxes on Smoking

The Long-Term Impacts of Cigarette Taxes on Smoking

Smoking prevention that increases tax revenue: tobacco taxes in the Czech Republic 2004-2020.

Increasing tobacco excise tax is one of the most effective smoking-prevention tools. The aim of the study is to assess the use of this tool in the Czech Republic (CR) by studying trends in cigarette taxes, prices, tax revenue, and the affordability of cigarettes in the CR. Data on cigarette consumption, their tax rates, price, and tax revenue in the CR for 2004-2020 come from multiple sources. We used the consumer price index to convert nominal values to real values. Given an average daily consumption of 12.7 cigarettes per smoker, the affordability of cigarettes was measured as a percentage of the average monthly wage needed to buy 19 cigarette packs. Despite recent increases in excise taxes, cigarettes in the CR are becoming more affordable. We found that the affordability of cigarettes was greater in 2020 than in 2008. The values of both the specific and the minimum excise taxes are currently being eroded by inflation. Cigarette consumption has declined from 2015 to 2020, and the government still received a bit more excise tax revenue due to its earlier tax policy. However, if taxes are not increased further, the revenue will start to decline. Despite the trend of increasing tobacco taxes in the CR, both the affordability of cigarettes and their use are still high in the country. This means that the CR is not using tax policy effectively enough to reduce smoking prevalence. It needs a substantial and sudden tax increase, in addition to the currently planned tax increases, to reduce smoking prevalence and lower the burden of tobacco use in the economy. Such a move would not only improve public health in the CR, but also increase government revenue.

The effect of e-cigarette taxes on prepregnancy and prenatal smoking.

E-cigarette taxes are an active area of legislation and have important regulatory implications by proxying e-cigarette accessibility. We examine the effect of e-cigarette taxes on prepregnancy and prenatal smoking using the near-universe of births to mothers conceiving between 2013 and 2019 in the United States. Using fixed effect regressions, we show that e-cigarette taxes increase prepregnancy and prenatal smoking. We also find evidence that e-cigarette taxes reduce prepregnancy and 3rd trimester e-cigarette use. Finally, we show that e-cigarette taxes increase news coverage of e-cigarettes and raise perceptions of risk of e-cigarettes.

The Incidence of Lung Cancer and Smoking in Iran, Turkey, England, and the USA: A Comparative Study

Objectives: Lung cancer is the deadliest and the costliest cancer in the world. In this study, we compared the situation of this disease in several countries by considering the most important risk factor of lung cancer (smoking). Methods: This is a comparative study, a comprehensive one which was done on lung cancer rates in four countries: Iran, Turkey, England, and the USA, during the past twenty years (2002-2021). Age-standardized rate (ASR) index and the percentage of smokers were extracted from available information in the World Health Organization (WHO) databases, The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Health Statistics 2021, and other valid related articles. After comparison, control procedures were examined. Results: England, with an ASR of 46, has the highest rate of lung cancer, and Iran, with an ASR of 21, has the lowest rate. Turkey has the highest percentage of smokers (29.3%), and the lowest percentage belongs to Iran (20%). Regarding the increasing trend of the ASR index, lung cancer in Iran and Turkey has had an upward trend, and England and the United States have a downward trend. Taxes on cigarettes are a significant factor in smoking reduction. Among these 4 countries, the lowest cigarette tax belongs to Iran (4.83%). Discussion: The result of this study shows that the incidence of lung cancer in Iran is rising, so following successful countries in imposing cigarette taxes can be an effective step to reduce smoking. Training programs, cultural improvement, and new diagnostic methods can also be useful in reducing lung cancer ASR.

Tobacco taxes as a community protective factor against cognitive decline in later life.

Prior work has suggested that encouraging smoking cessation could be an important tool for curbing later-life cognitive decline and cognitive disparities. This study investigates whether higher cigarette taxes were associated with lower odds of subjective cognitive decline (SCD) and lesser cognitive disparities. Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data collected between 2019 and 2021, this study estimates logistic regression models predicting SCD by average state cigarette taxes in the last 5, 10, and 20 years, with gradual adjustment for sociodemographic and state characteristics. The results show that higher cigarette taxes were associated with decreased odds of SCD only in models without adjustment. Among Hispanics only, higher taxes were associated with lower odds of SCD. The lower rates of SCD in states with higher cigarette taxes could be explained by their different sociodemographic characteristics. Future research should explore the mechanisms that underlie the observed association among Hispanic Americans.

Cigarette taxes, smoking, and health in the long run

Medical experts have argued forcefully that using cigarettes harms health, prompting the adoption of myriad anti-smoking policies. The association between smoking and mortality may, however, be influenced by unobserved factors, making it difficult to discern the underlying long-term causal relationship. In this study, we explore the effects of cigarette taxes experienced as a teenager, which are arguably exogenous, on adult smoking participation and mortality. A one-dollar increase in cigarette taxes experienced at ages 14–17 is associated with an 8 percent reduction in adult smoking participation and a 4 percent reduction in mortality. Mortality effects are most pronounced for heart disease and lung cancer.

ANALISIS PIGGYBACK TAX DALAM PENERIMAAN CUKAI HASIL TEMBAKAU (CHT) DI NUSA TENGGARA BARAT

The Indonesian government implements a piggyback tax related to cigarette policies. Since January 1, 2014, apart from value-added tax and cigarette excise tax, there is also a cigarette tax imposed on the cigarette industry in Indonesia. This study will explain to what extent and how significant the contribution between piggyback tax and Tobacco Product Excise (CHT) in Indonesia is. This policy was implemented considering the increasingly massive consumption of cigarettes by adults and children. This policy is expected to reduce cigarette consumption in Indonesia. It can also simultaneously increase state revenue. Quantitative descriptive research is the method applied in this study.

Summaries of Articles

Summaries of Articles

Price Isn’t Everything: Behavioral Response Around Changes In Sin Taxes

In traditional economic models, taxes change behavior by changing prices. In empirical analyses, factors other than price are thought to be relevant, but any nonprice factors are usually assumed to be held constant as taxes vary. We contend that violations of this assumption are expected when laws are passed changing sin taxes. In support of this claim, we document that state-level cigarette tax increases are concomitant with increases in antismoking appropriations, media coverage on smoking, lobbying efforts, and place-based smoking restrictions. The influence of these nonprice factors is easily confused with price effects, and we find evidence suggesting that controlling for them substantially reduces the estimated demand responsivity to the tax itself.

To what extent do excise taxes affect Malawi’s cigarette trade gap with Kenya and South Africa?

Background: While economic theory supports the perception that cigarette taxes incentivise producers and users to identify ways of evading the tax, leading to the smuggling of cigarettes through a profit-maximising mechanism, empirical evidence has produced mixed findings.Aim: This study bridges the knowledge gap and contributes to the debate by evaluating the impact of the taxation of cigarettes on cigarette smuggling and assessing the correlates of cigarette smuggling.Setting: In the study Malawi’s cigarette imports from Kenya and South Africa from 2007 to 2016 are examined.Method: Quintile regression and correlation analysis.Results: Empirical results show that increased excise taxes are not associated with increased smuggling as measured by the trade gap. Using the correlation analysis, the study found that an increase in the bilateral exchange rate and corruption in the partner countries are associated with an increase in the smuggling of cigarettes into Malawi.Conclusion: Results tally with several empirical studies while conflicting with others. On the policy implications, the results suggest that tackling cigarette smuggling, using taxes only, may not be sufficient. To be effective, combating smuggling must also include combating corruption, strengthening the rule of law and imposing punitive excise taxes on cigarettes.Contribution: This article contributes to the debate on the impact of cigarette taxes on smuggling of cigarettes using Malawi’s trade data. Interestingly, increased excise taxes on cigarettes were not associated with increased cigarette smuggling. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers on the complexities of cigarette smuggling and the need to consider a range of factors, such as strengthening the rule of law, to combat cigarette smuggling.

Do Tobacco Companies Have an Incentive to Promote "Harm Reduction" Products?: The Role of Competition.

Some cigarette companies have started to talk about replacing cigarettes with less harmful alternatives, which might include nicotine vaping products (NVPs), heated tobacco products (HTPs), and oral nicotine delivery products. We consider market competition as a primary driver of whether cigarette companies follow through on their stated intentions. We focus on the behavior of cigarette companies in the United States. We compare competition in the pre- and post-2012 time periods, analyze the impact of the growth in NVPs on smoking prevalence and cigarette company profits, and examine the potential future role of competition. Since 2006, consumers have broadened their use of non-combustible nicotine delivery products (NCNDPs) to include, inter alia, NVPs, HTPs, and oral nicotine pouches. U.S. cigarette companies have acquired major stakes in each of these product categories which corresponds to a period of rapidly declining adult smoking prevalence, especially among younger adults (ages 18-24 years). The shifting dynamics of the nicotine product marketplace are also reflected in cigarette company stock prices. While cigarette companies are likely to promote HTPs and nicotine delivery products over NVPs, their incentives will be directly related to competition from independent firms, which in turn will depend on government regulation. Although cigarette companies will back alternatives to combusted tobacco when threatened by competition, the prospects for their lasting conversion to NCNDPs will depend on the extent of such competition, which will be influenced by government regulation of tobacco products. Regulations that limit competition from independent firms while also protecting cigarette company profits risk slowing or even reversing recent declines in smoking, especially among youth and young adults. Regulations that reduce the appeal and addictiveness of combusted tobacco products, such as higher cigarette taxes or a reduced nicotine standard, will encourage smokers to quit and/or switch to less harmful non-combusted forms of tobacco. The regulation of non-combustible nicotine delivery products and cigarettes should be proportionate to their relative risks, so that smokers have incentives to switch from combustibles to safer alternatives, and cigarette companies have incentives to promote safer products.

Evaluation of the Realization of Expenditure on Cigarette Tax Revenue Sharing in the City of Manado

Realization of the Budget is very important in the implementation of Expenditures. Cigarette tax DBH revenue is a source of local own-source revenue (PAD) because it is a very potential source of local revenue and can be collected efficiently, effectively and economically, so that it can play a bigger role in efforts to increase regionally-sourced income (PAD). This study aims to evaluating the appropriateness of the realization of spending on cigarette tax revenue-sharing and knowing the records. The object of this research is the Regional Financial and Asset Board of Manado City. This type of research is descriptive qualitative using interview techniques, observation, data collection as well as documentation. The results of this study are the Realization of Cigarette Tax Revenue Sharing Fund Expenditure in 2018-2021, that the realization of cigarette tax revenue sharing expenditure has decreased in 2020 and 2021, then in 2018 and 2019 it has increased. The lowest realization was in 2020 and 2021 where the realization was quite low, namely only reaching 94.35%, for recording it was in accordance with existing regulations, namely PP 71 of 2010.

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities.

This study quantifies the impacts of strengthening 2 tobacco control policies in "Tobacco Nation," a region of the United States (U.S.) with persistently higher smoking rates and weaker tobacco control policies than the rest of the US, despite high levels of support for tobacco control policies. We used a microsimulation model, ModelHealthTM:Tobacco, to project smoking-attributable (SA) outcomes in Tobacco Nation states and the U.S. from 2022 to 2041 under 2 scenarios: (1) no policy change and (2) a simultaneous increase in cigarette taxes by $1.50 and in tobacco control expenditures to the CDC-recommended level for each state. The simulation uses state-specific data to simulate changes in cigarette smoking as individuals age and the health and economic consequences of current or former smoking. We simulated 500 000 individuals for each Tobacco Nation state and the U.S. overall, representative of each population. Over the next 20years, without policy changes, disparities in cigarette smoking will persist between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. However, compared to a scenario with no policy change, the simulated policies would lead to a 3.5% greater reduction in adult smoking prevalence, 2361 fewer SA deaths per million persons, and $334M saved in healthcare expenditures per million persons in Tobacco Nation. State-level findings demonstrate similar impacts. The simulations indicate that the simulated policies could substantially reduce cigarette smoking disparities between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. These findings can inform tobacco control advocacy and policy efforts to advance policies that align with evidence and Tobacco Nation residents' wishes.

As countries improve their cigarette tax policy, cigarette consumption declines

BackgroundThis study examines the association between the Tobacconomics cigarette tax scores and cigarette consumption in 97 countries during the period of 2014–2020.MethodsData on countries’ retail cigarette sales and overall cigarette...