Cigarette Price Increase Research Articles

Passive Smokers' Support for Stronger Tobacco Control in Indonesia.

Secondhand smoke exposure in Indonesia is high, especially compared to other Southeast Asian countries. Passive smoking leads to negative impacts on health and socio-economic well-being. Therefore, increasing the price of cigarettes and, thereby, increasing barriers to access to cigarettes could be an effective way to reduce smoking prevalence and protect people from second-hand smoke. This study aims to assess passive smokers’ support for cigarette price increases in Indonesia. We perform a quantitative analysis with a cross-sectional design. The data were obtained through phone-based interviews of 1000 respondents aged 18 and older in Indonesia. Only 596 nonsmokers were included to be further analyzed in this study. This study found that 44.1% respondents have at least one family member who smokes. We considered the respondents’ age, gender, education level, employment, and the number of people living in the respondent’s household that are exposed to passive smoking. Our results demonstrate that passive smokers support stronger tobacco control such as increasing cigarette prices, regulating smoking behavior using a religious approach (Fatwa), and applying more effective pictorial health warnings.

Price Elasticity of cigarette smoking demand in the Philippines after the 2012 Sin Tax Reform Act

The Philippine tobacco excise tax reform law passed in 2012 drastically increased cigarette prices which were historically low. A pack of 20 cigarettes costing nine cents (US Dollar) or less was taxed five cents in 2011. When the reform took effect in 2013, each pack was taxed 24 cents which is almost five times the 2011 rate. Alongside the increase in tax is a decline in the prevalence of tobacco use from 28.3% in 2009 to 23.8% in 2015. Seven years since the reform took effect, policymakers are still debating whether the tax introduced was high enough to significantly reduce smoking prevalence. This study estimated the total price elasticity of cigarette demand using regression analyses on the pooled Philippine 2009 and 2015 Global Adult Tobacco Survey data with the excise tax as an instrumental variable. Information from both tax regimes provided the variation in cigarette prices that allowed for the estimation of the price elasticity of smoking participation and intensity. Age, sex, urban residence, educational attainment, employment status, wealth quintile, and media exposure were used as control variables. Results confirm that cigarette demand is inelastic, given that total cigarette price elasticity of demand ranges from −0.56 to −1.10 which means that for every 10% price increase, total cigarette demand declines by 5.6% to 11.0%. This study also provides total price elasticities for different subpopulations. Future studies can use these elasticity estimates to forecast smoking prevalence and provide policy recommendations.

Smoking Behavior of Older Adults: A Panel Data Analysis Using HRS

Using longitudinal data from Health and Retirement Surveys over 1992–2010, this paper analyzes decisions by older American to continue smoking and the number of cigarettes to consume using two-part hurdle models with correlated effects. We build on the existing literature by incorporating a myriad of factors including cigarette prices, health shocks and smoke-free laws in one econometric framework. Our estimates indicate that higher cigarette prices play an important role in both reducing participation and the intensity of consumption even for this adult population. In addition, health shocks, as measured by newly diagnosed diseases, raise the probability of quitting, highlighting the ‘curative’ aspects of cessation. However, we find very little effect of health on smoking intensity if an older adult does not quit after a health shock. Per capita cigarette consumption in the US declined by over 64% during the period. We show that increased cigarette prices and health shocks together contribute almost equally to explain nearly 86% of the decline, with little that can be attributed to smoking bans and anti-smoking sentiment.

Has tax reforms in India been effective in tobacco control: Evidences on affordability of cigarette after introduction of Goods and Service Tax.

Background:Taxes are the most cost-effective mechanism to deter tobacco consumption. However, the tobacco tax system has not been favorable in India. India introduced Goods and Service Tax (GST) in 2017 to make the tax system uniform. This paper seeks to examine the role of the newly rolled out tax system on cigarette prices and affordability and hence consumption.Methods:We used secondary data from different government publications and conducted simple statistical analysis – to present price changes, affordability of cigarette in pre and post GST regime. Affordability was estimated comparing per capita income with price index of cigarette.Results:The findings suggest that the tax structure has not been simplified with multiple taxes imposed based upon the length of cigarettes. The relative WPI of cigarettes is increasing suggesting higher increase in cigarette prices than general price. Affordability though declined in the initial two years as compared to WPI and per capita income, it remained neutral in the post GST regime.Conclusions:The findings suggest that tax reform should aim at influencing affordability adequately so that it deters consumption of cigarette.

The effectivity of pictorial health warning to motivate smoking cessation in rural area: A study from Losari village, Indonesia.

INTRODUCTION:Smoking is a significant health problem among Indonesian adolescents and adults. The Indonesian government had issued several policies to alleviate this problem, including placement of pictorial health warning (PHW) on cigarette package. There had been several evaluation studies regarding the effectivity of PHW in urban areas but none in rural areas. This study aims to evaluate the effectivity of PHW in motivating smoking cessation in a rural area in Indonesia.MATERIALS AND METHODS:This was a descriptive cross-sectional study conducted in August 2017 in Losari village, Indonesia. Respondents of this study were villagers aged 18–60 years who were active smokers and purchased cigarette with PHW on the package. The research instruments for this study were questionnaire and printout pictures of each PHW approved by the Indonesian government.RESULTS:There were 94 respondents recruited in this study. Among them, only 26 (27.7%) stated that PHW motivated them to stop smoking. From the five figures of PHW, a picture of lung cancer was the most effective PHW to motivate smoking cessation. Eighty-one of 94 respondents affirm that there are other factors besides PHW that might motivate them to stop smoking. Most of them agreed that an increase in cigarette price will force them to stop smoking.CONCLUSIONS:Current PHW used on cigarette package might be ineffective in motivating smoking cessation at Losari village. Further study with larger samples needs to be done to confirm this finding.

Smoking behaviour after enforcement of a 100% tax on tobacco products in Saudi Arabia: a cross-sectional study.

Raising the prices of cigarettes is a common intervention to control tobacco use. In June 2017, Saudi Arabia imposed a 100% excise tax on tobacco products and energy drinks. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the increase in prices on tobacco products and the resulting cigarette smoking behaviour in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia before and after the increase in tobacco product prices. This cross-sectional study was conducted between December 2017 and March 2018 in Saudi Arabian smokers aged 18 years and more. A validated questionnaire was distributed to a convenience sample in public places and through Twitter. The McNemar matched pairs chi-squared test was used to evaluate the self-reported difference in cigarette smoking before and after the tax came into effect. Binary logistic regression analysis was done to identify the socioeconomic and health factors associated with stopping smoking. In all, 376 participants (80.0% men) completed the questionnaire. A large proportion of the participants (39.6%) reported no change in their smoking behaviour after the tax was imposed, whereas 29.8% switched to cheaper brands. Before the tax, 154 participants smoked 15 cigarettes or more a day; this figure decreased to 134 after the tax (McNemar test, P < 0.001). Respondents who were married, unemployed, had a higher income or who rated their health as fair were significantly more likely to have stopped smoking after the tax. The sharp increase in cigarette prices in Saudi Arabia has led to a statistically significant reduction in smoking. Future research should assess the long-term effects of this intervention on smoking onset, prevalence and relapse.

Positive Effects of the National Cigarette Price Increase Policy on Smoking Cessation in South Korea

Positive Effects of the National Cigarette Price Increase Policy on Smoking Cessation in South Korea

Cohort effects of tobacco control policy: evidence to support a tobacco-free norm through smoke-free policy

BackgroundThe prevalence of cigarette smoking among South Korean adolescents has decreased markedly over the past decade, which may indicate a norm shift between generations of adolescents. The present study aims...

Positive Effects of the National Cigarette Price Increase Policy on Smoking Cessation in South Korea.

BackgroundIn January 2015, South Korea's government raised the cigarette tax, and the retail price of cigarettes abruptly increased by 80% compared to the previous year. This research aimed to determine the effect of this increase on smoking cessation among South Korean smokers.MethodsWe analyzed data collected by the 2013–2015 South Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey of 15,203 South Koreans over 19 years old using regression analysis. We examined the recent non-smoking period of nonsmoking people, prepared according to the survey, and analyzed the recent smoking cessation ratio.ResultsAmong smokers, from 2013 to 2014, the smoking cessation rate was 7.2%, and it increased to 9.9% in 2015 after the increase in the cigarette tax. In 2015, the recent smoking cessation rate was higher among people over the age of 60 (odds ratio [OR], 2.67) compared to those between the ages of 40 and 49. The recent smoking cessation rate was higher among people with below elementary education (OR, 2.28) and above university education (OR, 1.94) compared to high school, higher for those with apartments (OR, 1.74) compared to general type residences, and higher among those with a household income in the low-middle quartile (Q2) (OR, 2.32) compared to the highest quartile (Q4).ConclusionThis innovative policy including increase in cigarette prices affected smoking cessation, and its impact varied by sub-group of smokers in South Korea.

Public support for cigarette price increase in Indonesia

Public support for cigarette price increase in Indonesia

The effect of industry vs government induced cigarette price increase on national cigarette consumption in Taiwan, 2011-2018

The effect of industry vs government induced cigarette price increase on national cigarette consumption in Taiwan, 2011-2018

How Raising Tobacco Prices Affects the Decision to Start and Quit Smoking: Evidence from Argentina.

We used a two-part model for the estimation of the price elasticity of participation and consumption of cigarettes by the duration of the smoking habit and a continuous-time split-population model for the estimation of prevalence and duration of smoking onset and smoking addiction, allowing for covariates in the participation component of the model. Results: We computed the total price elasticity of consumption of cigarettes by quartiles of addiction and found that for the people located in the lowest quartile of addiction the total price elasticity is around −0.51; while for those located in the highest quartile of addiction this figure is only −0.19. Then, a 10% increase in cigarette prices, via taxes, reduces the consumption of those in the early stages of the addiction by 5% and for those with a longer history of addiction by only 1.9%. Estimating the continuous-time split-population model we found that, at the mean starting age of 15 years, an increase of 10% in real cigarette prices is expected to delay smoking onset by almost two and a half years. On the other hand, the same policy is less effective to reduce the duration of the habit because there is no meaningful relationship between the duration of the smoking habit and the real price of cigarettes.The policy of raising cigarette excise taxes, to increment prices, seems to be more effective to delay smoking onset. On the other hand, the same policy is less effective to reduce the duration of the habit. A policy recommendation that emerges from this evidence is that for people with a developed addiction a combination of increasing taxes and other public health policies, like cessation therapies, could prove more effective.

Impact of cigarette price increase on health and financing outcomes in Vietnam

Background: Vietnam had about 15 million male smokers in 2015. To reduce adult tobacco use in Vietnam through an increase in the excise tax of cigarettes, we conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis to examine the impact of two scenarios of cigarette price increases. Methods: We estimated, across income quintiles, the life-years gained, treatment cost averted, number of men avoiding catastrophic health expenditure and extreme poverty, and additional tax revenue under a 32% and a 62% increase in cigarette price through increased excise tax. We considered only male smokers as they constitute majority of the smokers. We used the average price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in Vietnam of -0.53. Results: Under both scenarios of price increase, men in the poorest quintile would gain about 2.8 times the life-years and avert 2.5 times the treatment cost averted by the richest quintile. With a 32% price increase, about 285,000 men would avoid catastrophic health expenditure; as a result, about 95,000 men, more than half of whom in the poorest quintile, would avoid falling into extreme poverty. In contrast to the distribution of health benefits, the extra revenue generated from men in the richest quintile would be 1.2 times that from the poorest quintile. With a 62% price increase, about 553,000 men would avoid catastrophic health expenditure, and about 183,000 men, more than half of whom in the poorest quintile, would avoid falling into extreme poverty. The extra revenue generated from men in the richest quintile would be 3.8 times that from the poorest quintile. Conclusions: Higher cigarette prices would particularly benefit the poorest income quintile of Vietnamese, in terms of health and financial outcomes. Thus, tobacco taxes are an effective way to improve health and reduce poverty in Vietnam.

Cigarette prices and driving fatalities among youths

Deaths from motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of unintentional deaths in the United States. This paper investigates the effect of increases in cigarette taxes and prices following the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) on non-alcohol and alcohol-related motor vehicle fatalities among youths. I find that increases in cigarette taxes and prices are associated with a reduction in non-alcohol related accidents between 1998 and 2006 among 16-to-20 year olds.

Impact of cigarette price increase on health and financing outcomes in Vietnam.

Background: Vietnam had about 15 million male smokers in 2015. To reduce adult tobacco use in Vietnam through an increase in the excise tax of cigarettes, we conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis to examine the impact of two scenarios of cigarette price increases. Methods: We estimated, across income quintiles, the life-years gained, treatment cost averted, number of men avoiding catastrophic health expenditure and extreme poverty, and additional tax revenue under a 32% and a 62% increase in cigarette price through increased excise tax. We considered only male smokers as they constitute majority of the smokers. We used the average price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in Vietnam of -0.53. Results: Under both scenarios of price increase, men in the poorest quintile would gain about 2.8 times the life-years and avert 2.5 times the treatment cost averted by the richest quintile. With a 32% price increase, about 285,000 men would avoid catastrophic health expenditure; as a result, about 95,000 men, more than half of whom in the poorest quintile, would avoid falling into extreme poverty. In contrast to the distribution of health benefits, the extra revenue generated from men in the richest quintile would be 1.2 times that from the poorest quintile. With a 62% price increase, about 553,000 men would avoid catastrophic health expenditure, and about 183,000 men, more than half of whom in the poorest quintile, would avoid falling into extreme poverty. The extra revenue generated from men in the richest quintile would be 3.8 times that from the poorest quintile. Conclusions: Higher cigarette prices would particularly benefit the poorest income quintile of Vietnamese, in terms of health and financial outcomes. Thus, tobacco taxes are an effective way to improve health and reduce poverty in Vietnam.

The Experimental Tobacco Marketplace: Demand and Substitutability as a Function of Cigarette Taxes and e-Liquid Subsidies.

The experimental tobacco marketplace (ETM) approximates real-world situations by estimating the effects of several, concurrently available products and policies on budgeted purchasing. Although the effects of increasing cigarette price on potentially less harmful substitutability are well documented, the effects of other, nuanced pricing policies remain speculative. This study used the ETM as a tool to assess the effects of two pricing policies, conventional cigarette taxation and e-liquid subsidization, on demand and substitutability. During sampling periods, participants were provided 2-day samples of 24 mg/mL e-liquid, after which ETM purchase sessions occurred. Across two ETM sessions, conventional cigarettes were taxed or e-liquid was subsidized in combination with increasing cigarette price. The other four available products were always price constant and not taxed or subsidized. E-liquid functioned as a substitute for conventional cigarettes across all conditions. Increasing cigarette taxation and e-liquid subsidization increased the number of participants for which e-liquid functioned as a substitute. Cigarette taxation decreased cigarette demand, by decreasing demand intensity, and marginally increased the initial intensity of e-liquid substitution, but did not affect the functions' slopes (substitutability). E-liquid subsidization resulted in large increases in the initial intensity of e-liquid substitution, but did not affect e-liquid substitutability nor cigarette demand. 24 mg/mL e-cigarette e-liquid was the only product to significantly substitute for cigarettes in at least one condition throughout the experiment; it functioned as a significant substitute throughout all four tax and all four subsidy conditions. Increasing cigarette taxes decreased cigarette demand through decreases in demand intensity but did not affect e-cigarette substitution. Increasing e-liquid subsidies increased e-liquid initial intensity of substitution but did not affect cigarette demand. This study extended research on the behavioral economics of conventional cigarette demand and e-liquid substitutability in a complex marketplace. The results suggest that the most efficacious method to decrease conventional cigarette purchasing and increase e-liquid purchasing may involve greatly increasing cigarette taxes while also increasing the value of e-liquid through potentially less harmful product subsidization or differential taxation.

Cigarette prices in a complex cigarette tax system: empirical evidence from Indonesia

BackgroundThe complex cigarette tax system in Indonesia has created the opportunity for cigarette producers to avoid tax, which results in affordable cigarette prices. In addition to increasing cigarette tax every...

The impact of flavors, health risks, secondhand smoke and prices on young adults' cigarette and e-cigarette choices: a discrete choice experiment.

To estimate young adults' preferences for cigarettes and e-cigarettes, and how preferences vary by policy-relevant factors. A related aim was to provide information on potential substitution/complementarity across cigarettes and e-cigarettes ahead of policy selection. An online discrete choice experiment (DCE) in which respondents chose their preferred option among cigarettes, two types of e-cigarettes (disposable/reusable) and 'none'. Each cigarette-type was characterized by policy-relevant attributes: flavors, short-term health risks to self, secondhand smoke risks and price. A latent class model identified smoking types that respond differently to these. US tobacco market. A total of 2003 young adults (aged 18-22years) who ever tried either cigarettes or e-cigarettes, recruited via the survey platform Qualtrics, matched to the 2015 National Health Interview Survey by age, gender, education and census region. Respondents' DCE choices. Young adults fell into two broad categories. One latent group, termed 'prefer smoking group', preferred cigarettes and another, 'prefer vaping group', preferred e-cigarettes. The 'prefer smoking group' preferred lower prices and lower health harms more than other attributes. The 'prefer vaping group' valued these, although price less intensely, and valued health and fruit/candy flavors more. Banning all flavors in cigarettes and e-cigarettes might improve the health of young adults who ever tried either cigarettes or e-cigarettes. Young adult ever-triers might be deterred from smoking by increasing cigarette prices and encouraged to switch to e-cigarettes by reducing the health harms of e-cigarettes. Reducing health harms of e-cigarettes could also make the 'prefer vaping group' less likely to quit, resulting in increased health harm.

How Much Is Too Much? Estimating Effective Price-Hikes to Affect Smoking Behavior in Vietnam.

Raising the price of cigarettes is one of the most effective strategies to reduce cigarette smoking. The Vietnamese government is working toward the tobacco control goal of a 10% reduction in smoking prevalence by 2020. However, cigarette prices in Vietnam have not increased in the last two decades. The aim of this study was to estimate what cigarette prices would make smokers attempt to quit smoking, and to identify predictors of the price to quit and the intention to quit. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 822 male current smokers in Da Nang, Vietnam. A structured questionnaire was adapted from the International Tobacco Control project survey. Bayesian quantile regression was applied to predict factors associated with expected cigarette price. Fifty-six percent of smokers suggested a price to quit. Their median suggested price to quit per pack, 62 000 VND (2.8 USD), was 2.8 times higher than the actual current price, 22 000 VND (1.01 USD). Suggesting a lower price to quit was significantly associated with awareness of warning labels and smoke-free policies. In contrast, being a heavy smoker was significantly associated with a higher suggested price to quit across all quantiles. There may be sufficient room to increase cigarette prices in Vietnam. The price to quit is associated with various factors, including non-pricing policies. Evidence suggests that a steep increase in cigarette prices, setting a high minimum tax, and introducing a large specific tax, which are policy-induced price increases that can raise prices substantially in Vietnam, are preferable strategies. In addition to increasing price and taxes, the government should also strengthen non-pricing policies.

Burden of smoking in Brazil and potential benefit of increasing taxes on cigarettes for the economy and for reducing morbidity and mortality.

The prevalence of smoking in Brazil has decreased considerably in recent decades, but the country still has a high burden of disease associated with this risk factor. The study aimed to estimate the burden of mortality, morbidity, and costs for society associated with smoking in 2015 and the potential impact on health outcomes and the economy based on price increases for cigarettes through taxes. Two models were developed: the first is a mathematical model based on a probabilistic microsimulation of thousands of individuals using hypothetical cohorts that considered the natural history, costs, and quality of life of these individuals. The second is a tax model applied to estimate the economic benefit and health outcomes in different price increase scenarios in 10 years. Smoking was responsible for 156,337 deaths, 4.2 million years of potential life lost, 229,071 acute myocardial infarctions, 59,509 strokes, and 77,500 cancer diagnoses. The total cost was BRL 56.9 billion (USD 14.7 billion), with 70% corresponding to the direct cost associated with healthcare and the rest to indirect cost due to lost productivity from premature death and disability. A 50% increase in cigarette prices would avoid 136,482 deaths, 507,451 cases of cardiovascular diseases, 64,382 cases of cancer, and 100,365 cases of stroke. The estimated economic benefit would be BRL 97.9 billion (USD 25.5 billion). In conclusion, the burden of disease and economic losses associated with smoking is high in Brazil, and tax increases are capable of averting deaths, illness, and costs to society.